Eventual

Today on the show: World Cup diplomacy gets weird, Trump looks past Canada and Mexico, Michigan Democrats spiral into a brutal Senate primary, Maine picks its Graham Platner replacement,  and Chinese AI sends traders hunting for signal. Alex Keeney and Brian Golden break down the latest prediction market action across politics, AI, trade, Congress, and the 2026 midterms — including USMCA extension odds, Michigan Senate primary markets, Maine Senate fallout, and Troy Jackson’s rise.

Then Peter Wildeford, head of policy at the AI Policy Network and a longtime prediction market forecaster, joins Eventual for a deep dive on Chinese AI, Moonshot’s Kimi 3, whether the AI bubble is at risk, what Washington actually understands about artificial intelligence, and why data centers are becoming one of the next major fronts in American politics. 

Guest: Peter Wildeford — Head of Policy, AI Policy Network Follow Peter Wildeford: X: @PeterWildeford Substack: blog.peterwildeford.com 

Hosted by: Alex Keeney & Brian Golden 

For more prediction market news and analysis, visit eventual.news. 

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

For Polymarket US users:
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

David Ellison's high-stakes bid to merge Paramount with Warner Bros Discovery is hitting a wall — and it's not the kind of wall Hollywood is used to. California Attorney General Rob Bonta and a coalition of Democratic state AGs are fighting to block the deal, setting up a courtroom showdown with massive implications for the future of media and tech. Alex Keeney from Eventual and Rich Greenfield dig into the legal battle, the political motivations behind it, and what prediction markets are already signaling about the merger's odds. Tune in for the latest on the Paramount-Warner Bros Discovery merger fight, the blue-state AG coalition trying to stop it, and what the smart money on Polymarket says about where this heads next. 🔗 Trade the outcome yourself at polymarket.us

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

For Polymarket US users:
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

The Bulwark's Sonny Bunch joins to break down the backlash to Nolan's The Odyssey, whether online outrage predicts box office, and a Best Picture lightning round (Obsession, Project Hail Mary, Michael, The Invite, Fjord). Plus: Alex and Brian trade Congress's "nothing ever happens" bet, an inflation surprise scrambling the Fed outlook, fading Mbappé for the golden ball, and Alex's Susan Collins short in Maine.

Powered by Polymarket. Back in the U.S. — polymarket.us

Hosts and guests may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed. Views expressed are for informational purposes only and not investment or trading advice.

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

For Polymarket US users:
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

Domer & Alex Keeney breaks down the latest in politics, prediction markets, and election odds — from Graham Platner dropping out in Maine to Nigel Farage facing Count Binface in the world’s dumbest by-election.

Then David DesRosiers, publisher of RealClearPolitics and host of Get Real, joins Eventual to talk about polling, Polymarket, prediction markets, political science, the future of election forecasting, the 2026 midterms, Democratic Socialists in primaries, big-city politics, gender polarization, and what Republicans and Democrats can learn from each other.

Topics include:

Graham Platner drops out of the Maine Senate race

Maine Democrats scramble to pick a replacement nominee

Troy Jackson, Shenna Bellows, Nirav Shah, Jordan Wood, and Dan Kleban

Maine Senate election odds and 2026 Senate control

Nigel Farage, Reform UK, and Count Binface

The UK’s strangest by-election

RealClearPolitics adding Polymarket odds

Polling averages vs. prediction markets

Why prediction markets matter for political analysis

The future of election forecasting after 538

House and Senate control markets

DSA-aligned candidates in Democratic primaries

Urban decline, migration, and big-city politics

Young men, gender polarization, and the Trump coalition

What the GOP and Democrats can learn from each other

Guest:

David DesRosiers — Publisher, RealClearPolitics

Sponsored segment:

Includes a Polymarket ad read.

Disclaimer:

Eventual is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this stream should be understood as financial, legal, investment, gambling, or trading advice. Guests, hosts, and viewers may hold positions in prediction markets and may change those positions at any time. Nothing here is an endorsement to buy, sell, or trade any market. Trade safe and follow all applicable laws and platform rules in your jurisdiction.

Subscribe to Eventual for more politics, prediction markets, election odds, and probabilistic analysis.

#PredictionMarkets #Polymarket #RealClearPolitics #Politics #Election2026 #Midterms #MaineSenate #GrahamPlatner #NigelFarage #CountBinface #Polling #ElectionForecasting #PoliticalScience #Eventual

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

For Polymarket US users:
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

Alex Keeney and Brian take on a packed show: the USMNT’s latest collapse, Graham Platner’s implosion in Maine, what it means for Democrats’ Senate hopes in 2026, and the prediction markets moving around Senate control. Then, Curt Mills, executive director of The American Conservative, joins Eventual for a wide-ranging conversation on Trump’s Iran options, the odds of a nuclear deal, uranium enrichment, the Strait of Hormuz, MAGA foreign policy, China, AI regulation, data centers, and the early 2028 presidential field. 

Also on the show: what we’re watching this week, Congress doing nothing, inflation, Odd Lots, Neera Tanden, and whether Britain has gone bonkers again. 

Topics include: USMNT fallout Graham Platner and the Maine Senate race Democrats’ 2026 Senate path Susan Collins and Senate control markets Trades to watch this week Curt Mills on Iran, Trump, and foreign policy Iran nuclear deal prediction markets China, AI, and data center politics JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Gavin Newsom, and AOC in 2028 Oracle of the Week 

Guest: Curt Mills — Executive Director, The American Conservative 

Follow Curt Mills: https://x.com/CurtMills F

ollow Joe Weisenthal: https://x.com/TheStalwart 

Follow Neera Tanden: https://x.com/neeratanden/status/2071... 

Sponsored segment: Includes a Polymarket ad read. 

Disclaimer: Eventual is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this stream should be understood as financial, legal, investment, gambling, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk, and viewers are responsible for complying with all applicable laws and platform rules in their jurisdiction. Like, subscribe, and turn on notifications for more politics, markets, and probability.

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

For Polymarket US users:
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

Alex Keeney is joined by Doug Campbell for a World Cup and politics-heavy episode of Eventual.

First, Alex and Doug break down the World Cup through a prediction-market lens, focusing on home-field advantage, hostile road environments, altitude, and how those factors can shape knockout-stage expectations. Doug explains why home teams and home-continent teams may be undervalued, why older underdog-betting theories may not be working in recent knockout rounds, and where he sees value across World Cup markets.

Then they turn to the latest New York Times/Siena battleground Senate polls. The numbers look rougher for Democrats in several key races, but Doug argues one poll should not radically change the broader picture. Alex and Doug discuss whether Democrats are still a buy, why polling error matters months before Election Day, and how a small miss could swing multiple Senate seats in either direction.

Plus: Nate Silver’s World Cup model gets a shoutout, Barnard Bulletin earns Oracle of the Week, and Alex tees up the coming conversation with Andrew Tobias on Ohio politics, AI data centers, and the Sherrod Brown/John Husted race.

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

For Polymarket US users:
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

Colorado usually is not the center of national political attention anymore, but primary day has put the state back in the spotlight. Seth Masket joins Eventual to unpack two high-attention Democratic contests: Diana DeGette's primary challenge in Denver and Michael Bennet's run for governor against Phil Weiser. The conversation looks at why prediction markets are skeptical of the incumbents, why polling is so thin, and what early ballot returns can and cannot tell us. Masket explains why Colorado's shift from swing state to reliably blue state has made Democratic primaries the more meaningful arena for governance. A major theme is anti-establishment energy inside the Democratic Party. Some voters are not necessarily demanding a different policy platform; they are demanding a different posture toward Trump and national politics. 

The episode also explores whether the rise of DSA-style and populist Democratic campaigns means class politics is becoming a more central frame in the party. Co-host Brian Golden also joins to talk about the latest news from Iran and why markets are being cautious reacting, as well as who the top predictors this week were worldwide. Key topics: Colorado primary day Diana DeGette vs. Melat Kiros and Wanda James Michael Bennet vs. Phil Weiser Prediction markets and lightly polled races Why unaffiliated voters may choose Democratic primaries Anti-establishment energy inside the Democratic Party Trump as the organizing issue for both parties Populism, class politics, and the future of Democratic coalitions.

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

For Polymarket US users:
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

The progressive insurgency inside the Democratic Party isn't slowing down — and prediction markets are starting to price it in. This week on Eventual, world leading trader Domer breaks down how to trade the DSA wave reshaping deep-blue districts, eight years after AOC's first upset rewrote the rules.

We dig into AOC's presidential market — is she a real contender or a long-shot story? Then we talk Chuck Schumer: what does his political future actually look like, and why aren't there more markets on it?

From there, we go deep on Michigan with Zack Stanton of MS NOW. Abdul El-Sayed is surging in the Democratic Senate primary ahead of the August 4th vote, and the markets have him heavy favorite over Rep. Haley Stevens. Is that price right? And if El-Sayed wins, does he hand the seat to Mike Rogers in November?

Plus: California's billionaire wealth tax is sitting at 65% odds to make the ballot — and Gavin Newsom is quietly trying to kill it before the June 25th certification deadline. We debate whether to fade or follow that number.

And Mark Zuckerberg is reportedly building a prediction markets app. What does that mean for Polymarket, Kalshi, and the space overall?

Powered by Polymarket — now back in the U.S. with a new app and a $20 signup bonus.

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

For Polymarket US users:
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

ice President JD Vance is everywhere selling an Iran framework. But Rachael Bade — who writes The Inner Circle on Substack and co-hosts The Huddle — says the hardest sticking points haven't been touched yet. Can Vance and Iran strike a deal that Trump and Congress will approve? Also this week: political forecaster Logan Phillips thinks prediction markets have the New York AI primary completely backwards. OpenAI money is flooding the race to stop assemblyman Alex Bores — but Logan's model has Bores is favored. Brian Golden (aka Prince Howl, #1 econ trader on Kalshi) explains why World Cup group winners are dramatically underpriced in the knockout round — and why 11-and-1 is sitting at 12 cents. Plus: California's billionaire tax showdown, the Thune-Trump rift, and a very short-term bond play on the housing bill. Eventual is powered by Polymarket — the world's largest prediction market, now relaunched in the US. Sign up at polymarket.us

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

For Polymarket US users:
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

Donald Trump brought the World Cup to America. Now he's trying to bring home an Iran nuclear deal — and prediction markets think the mullahs are winning. PhD economist and Polymarket veteran Doug Campbell joins to find the alpha in the wreckage.

The Ringer's Anthony Dabbundo talks the World Cup — the teams, the bets, and whether Trump is about to make the biggest soccer tournament in history about himself.

And Georgia just handed traders a gift. Jon Ossoff has his opponent. Doug explains why it might be the best bond on the board right now.

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

For Polymarket US users:
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.