ice President JD Vance is everywhere selling an Iran framework. But Rachael Bade — who writes The Inner Circle on Substack and co-hosts The Huddle — says the hardest sticking points haven't been touched yet. Can Vance and Iran strike a deal that Trump and Congress will approve? Also this week: political forecaster Logan Phillips thinks prediction markets have the New York AI primary completely backwards. OpenAI money is flooding the race to stop assemblyman Alex Bores — but Logan's model has Bores is favored. Brian Golden (aka Prince Howl, #1 econ trader on Kalshi) explains why World Cup group winners are dramatically underpriced in the knockout round — and why 11-and-1 is sitting at 12 cents. Plus: California's billionaire tax showdown, the Thune-Trump rift, and a very short-term bond play on the housing bill. Eventual is powered by Polymarket — the world's largest prediction market, now relaunched in the US. Sign up at polymarket.us

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.