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Are the leading US indicators showing signs of a future economic slowdown?
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US fell in September.
The LEI for the U.S. once again signaled a recession in September, but according to our model, the next U.S. economic adjustment is likely to occur in the first half of 2025. However, given the resilient of the U.S. employment market, this economic adjustment is expected to slow down rather than result in a recession (defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth)
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By James MimiThe Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US fell in September.
The LEI for the U.S. once again signaled a recession in September, but according to our model, the next U.S. economic adjustment is likely to occur in the first half of 2025. However, given the resilient of the U.S. employment market, this economic adjustment is expected to slow down rather than result in a recession (defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth)