Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, explains why commodity markets are selling off despite ongoing geopolitical risks, and why the long-term fundamentals may tell a different story.

In this July 27 update, Arlan covers:

• Why crude oil, grain, and oilseed markets moved sharply lower

• How algorithmic trading is driving today's market action

• The latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea

• Why weather remains the dominant factor for corn and soybean futures

• What current crop ratings and yield models are signaling

• The growing concern over fertilizer availability for the 2027 crop year

• Why the Black Sea remains a key geopolitical risk

• How strong biofuel demand continues supporting soybean crush

• The latest on China's soybean buying commitments and what they could mean for U.S. balance sheets

• Why money flow—not just fundamentals—is driving today's commodity markets

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How are two global conflicts reshaping commodity markets?

In this StoneX Market Intelligence update, Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman explains how escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea are impacting energy, grain, and global trade.

In this update, Arlan covers:

• The latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz and their impact on crude oil and shipping

• Ukraine's attacks on Russian fuel infrastructure and Black Sea logistics

• Why the Kerch Strait is critical for global wheat exports

• Russia's response and what it means for grain markets

• China's agricultural purchasing outlook and implications for U.S. exports

• U.S. Corn Belt weather and the outlook for corn and soybean production

• With geopolitical risks rising in two key commodity-producing regions, markets are closely watching energy flows, grain exports, Chinese demand, and U.S. crop conditions.

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Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, explains why wheat markets rallied ahead of USDA's report—and why renewed conflict in the Black Sea may be the bigger story for commodity markets.

In this July 10 update, Arlan covers:

• Why wheat prices surged despite a generally favorable U.S. weather outlook

• How Ukraine's attacks in the Sea of Azov are disrupting Russian exports

• Why the Kerch Strait has become a key geopolitical risk

• What renewed Black Sea tensions could mean for global wheat trade

• Why traders are beginning to add risk premium back into wheat markets

• How Russia's fuel infrastructure and exports continue to face pressure

• Why corn and soybean prices remain capped by improving weather forecasts

• What to watch in USDA's latest crop report

• The key market risks heading into next week

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Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, explains why renewed attacks in the Strait of Hormuz aren't triggering panic in commodity markets—and what traders should be watching instead.

In this July 9 update, Arlan covers:

• Why Iran's latest attacks on commercial ships have disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz

• How the U.S. response is changing the security outlook in the region

• Why shipping costs and insurance premiums continue to rise

• The long-term implications for crude oil, diesel, natural gas, and fertilizer markets

• Why grain and oilseed markets are shifting their focus back to Midwest weather

• How changing weather forecasts are impacting corn pollination and soybean development

• The latest on China's soybean purchases and what they signal for future demand

• Why China's political commitments could reshape U.S. grain exports

• What to watch next as geopolitical risk and agricultural fundamentals continue to collide

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Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, looks back on a difficult month for commodity markets and explains the three key factors that will determine where grain and oilseed prices go next.

In this June 26 update, Arlan covers:

• Why 23 of 27 major commodities declined during June

• How changing market sentiment has shifted money out of commodities

• Why the Strait of Hormuz remains a wildcard despite ceasefire headlines

• What to expect from USDA's upcoming Quarterly Stocks and Acreage reports

• How July weather and corn pollination could shape the market

• Why China’s soybean purchases remain one of the biggest unknowns

• What additional demand from China or Iran could mean for U.S. balance sheets

• Why strong biofuel demand continues supporting soybean crush

• The long-term outlook for corn, soybeans, and global agricultural demand

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Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, explains why grain and oilseed markets found support this week and what recent soybean sales may reveal about global demand.

In this June 17 update, Arlan covers:

• Why grain and oilseed markets rebounded after heavy selling pressure

• The latest rumors surrounding potential Chinese soybean purchases

• What USDA's flash soybean sale announcement could mean

• Why StoneX believes recent soybean purchases may be heading elsewhere

• How lower prices are attracting end-user demand

• The growing weather concerns impacting wheat production in Europe

• Why traders are becoming more reluctant to sell market breaks

• What is really happening with the Strait of Hormuz reopening

• Why energy, LNG, and fertilizer supply risks remain elevated

• What to watch from today's Federal Reserve meeting and policy statement

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Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down the newly announced Iran agreement and explains why commodity markets may be underestimating the long-term risks facing energy, fertilizer, and agricultural markets.

In this June 15 update, Arlan covers:

• What the Iran agreement actually does — and does not — accomplish

• Why equity markets are rallying while commodities sell off

• The challenges of reopening the Strait of Hormuz

• Why energy and fertilizer flows won't return to normal overnight

• How damage to oil, natural gas, and fertilizer infrastructure could impact markets for years

• The implications for global fertilizer availability and production

• Why end users should be evaluating coverage opportunities

• What the breakdown below key support levels means for corn prices

• How favorable Midwest weather is influencing grain market sentiment

• Why China's soybean purchasing commitments remain a key wildcard for markets

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Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down the key takeaways from USDA's June WASDE report and explains why a potential Iran ceasefire may not eliminate commodity market risk anytime soon.

In this June 12 update, Arlan covers:

• What mattered most in USDA's June WASDE report

• Why soybean crush demand continues to exceed expectations

• The outlook for corn exports and ethanol demand

• How rising corn production in India is changing the global balance sheet

• Why fertilizer availability could become a major concern heading into 2027

• The significance of December corn holding support near $4.40

• What a potential Iran memorandum of understanding could mean for markets

• Why Arlan remains skeptical of a lasting Middle East peace agreement

• The critical role of the Strait of Hormuz in global energy and fertilizer supplies

• Why commodity risk may remain elevated even if a ceasefire is announced

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Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, previews the June WASDE report and explains why grain and oilseed markets may be at a critical turning point after weeks of heavy fund liquidation.

• In this June 10 update, Arlan covers:

• What to expect from USDA's June WASDE report

• Why significant changes to corn and soybean yields are unlikely

• The surprising deterioration in winter wheat crop ratings

• How South American corn and soybean production estimates could be adjusted

• Why speculative funds paused their selling ahead of the report

• Evidence that end users are stepping in to buy the recent market break

• What stronger soybean and corn basis levels in Brazil are signaling

• China's continued demand for Brazilian soybeans

• How ethanol demand is supporting Brazil's corn market

• Why weather remains the biggest variable for U.S. crop prospects

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Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, takes a deep dive into the U.S. soybean balance sheet and explains why China's purchasing decisions may have a bigger impact on soybean prices than weather this summer.

In this June 3 update, Arlan covers:

• Why soybean futures have come under pressure despite strong crush demand

• What current crop ratings are signaling about the 2026 soybean crop

• How additional soybean acreage could impact production estimates

• Why soybean crush remains a major source of demand growth

• The role of soybean oil and biofuel demand in supporting the market

• Whether USDA's export projections are realistic

• Why U.S. soybeans remain significantly more expensive than Brazilian supplies

• What China's commitment to purchase 25 million metric tons could mean for the balance sheet

• How Chinese soybean buying would reshape global trade flows

• The potential impact on U.S. ending stocks and soybean prices

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