Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down signs that the Iran conflict may be nearing an end — and why that does not mean the market risk is over.

In this April 17 update, Arlan covers:

Why markets are reacting to signs the war may be winding down

What the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could mean for oil and shipping flows

Why crude oil, grain, and oilseed markets are reversing as money flow shifts

How damage to oil, gas, and fertilizer infrastructure could keep supply tight for months or longer

Why fertilizer may become a bigger 2027 issue even if the conflict ends soon

What to watch next as negotiations continue

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Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down the weekend developments in Iran and what the latest U.S. blockade move could mean for commodity markets.

In this update, Arlan covers:

• Why the U.S. blockade marks a major escalation in the Iran conflict

• What a shutdown of Iranian shipping could mean for oil and fertilizer flows

• Why corn and wheat prices are trading above pure supply-and-demand fundamentals

• How energy inflation and fertilizer shortages could keep elevating the floor under food-based commodities

• Why Asia and Europe may feel the most acute shortages first

• What China’s latest moves could mean for trade and Taiwan risk

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#ArlanSuderman #StoneX #OilMarkets #Fertilizer #GrainMarkets #Corn #Wheat #CommodityMarkets #Iran #OATT #OOTT #Hormuz #Oilprices

Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, explains why the next 36 hours could be critical for grain, energy, and fertilizer markets.

In this April 6 update, Arlan covers:

• Why the Strait of Hormuz remains the biggest near-term market driver

• How a ceasefire or de-escalation could remove some war premium from commodity markets

• Why further escalation could push energy and fertilizer prices even higher

• What to watch ahead of this week’s USDA WASDE report

• Why soybeans still have support while corn and wheat face pressure

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Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down the latest USDA quarterly grain stocks report and explains what is really driving the grain and oilseed markets right now.

In this April 1 update, Arlan covers:

How war headlines influenced grain and oilseed buying

What the March 1 USDA grain stocks data says about corn, soybeans, and wheat

Why corn stocks came in lower than expected

What the report could mean for soybean and wheat balance sheets

Why large supplies are still pressuring basis

How fertilizer risk could shape the grain outlook going forward

If you follow corn, soybeans, wheat, basis, USDA reports, and commodity market trends, this is a key update from the trading floor.

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Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down why the EPA’s final biofuels rule could be a major demand driver for feedstocks and ag markets.

In this March 30 update, Arlan covers:

Why the new EPA biofuels guidelines look bullish for soy oil and feedstock demand

What the final renewable volume obligations mean for renewable diesel

How energy shortages and the Strait of Hormuz disruption are reshaping commodity flows

Why fertilizer shortages and food security headlines are getting market attention

What this could mean for corn, soybeans, wheat, and grain/oilseed money flow

If you follow biofuels, grain markets, oilseeds, fertilizer, and global commodity risk, this is the market update to watch.

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#ArlanSuderman #StoneX #Biofuels #SoybeanOil #Corn #Soybeans #Wheat #GrainMarkets #CommodityMarkets #EPA #OOTT

Geopolitical risk just escalated — and energy and agriculture markets are reacting.

Following a coordinated U.S.–Israel strike on Iran, crude oil prices surged as tanker traffic slowed through the Strait of Hormuz — the critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of global crude exports.

StoneX Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman breaks down what this means for:

• Crude oil prices and global energy flows

• Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions

• Fertilizer supply risks (urea, ammonia, phosphate)

• The spike in Gulf urea prices

• Soy oil rally and rising biofuel demand

• EPA biofuel RVO developments

• U.S.–China trade tensions and Xi–Trump negotiations

With fertilizer production concentrated in the Middle East and energy markets on edge, agriculture and commodity markets are tightly linked to unfolding geopolitical developments.

Arlan also examines:

• How long military disruptions could last

• The risk of an Iranian power vacuum

• Why China stands to lose if Iran’s regime changes

• Whether higher crude prices could accelerate U.S. biofuel policy

If you trade or follow crude oil, grains, fertilizers, biofuels, or global macro markets, this is a critical update from the StoneX trading floor.

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Are we witnessing a major shift in China’s agricultural trade policy?

In today’s market update, Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down the overnight headlines following President Trump’s call with China’s President Xi — and the 50‑cent surge in soybean futures that followed.

In this episode, Arlan covers:

Trump’s request for China to buy an additional 8 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans

China’s newly released “Number One Document” and a surprising shift away from self‑sufficiency messaging

Why Brazilian soybeans remain cheaper — and how that complicates U.S. export potential

What a forced Chinese purchase would mean for global basis levels

Biofuel policy expectations and the impact on U.S. crush demand

Why Arlan remains skeptical — but why the possibility still matters

Stay informed on developments that could reshape U.S. export opportunities and global grain flows.

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StoneX Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman breaks down the new 45Z clean fuel production credit and why carbon intensity (CI) scores now decide value. He details the post‑2025 North America‑only feedstock rule, high-risk status for imported used cooking oil (UCO), and the removal of ILUC—plus what he’s watching next from the EPA on RVOs.

What’s inside:

45Z is out: Technology‑neutral, CI‑driven credit (2025–2029)

North America-only feedstocks after Dec 31, 2025 (no blending/dilution; origin matters)

Imported UCO (EUCO) flagged as high risk; foreign UCO pathways excluded in 45Z CF GREET after 2025

ILUC removed starting in 2026 → improves soy biodiesel CI

Credit math: CI score is the gatekeeper; up to $1/gal if PWA rules met (indexed)

Winners vs. losers: Efficient, low‑CI plants vs. older, higher‑CI operations

Market implications: U.S. soy oil structurally advantaged; crush margins supported

Next shoe to drop: EPA RVOs timing likely late Feb–early March (post OMB review)

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#StoneX #Biofuels #45Z #Soybeans #Biodiesel #RenewableDiesel #CarbonIntensity #GREET #EPA #RVO #UsedCookingOil #ILUC

In today’s Update From the Trading Floor, Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down a major geopolitical development in China, a sweeping purge inside the Central Military Commission, and what it means for U.S. soybean exports, global commodity flows, and ongoing U.S.–China trade negotiations.

Arlan explores:

• China's military leadership purge and why top generals close to President Xi are being removed

• Signs of cracks in Xi Jinping’s power base and how that increases geopolitical risk

• How instability in China affects soybean shipments, biofuel demand, and global crushers

• The status of U.S.–China trade talks following meetings at Davos

• Why rare earth minerals and new Canada–China agreements may fuel fresh trade tensions

• The outlook for Brazilian and Argentine crops and competitiveness against U.S. soybeans

• How Taiwan remains a key flash point and why China likely stays quiet for now

With China’s military shaken and global markets watching closely, Arlan explains why the current climate may actually support U.S. soybean shipments in the near term — and what to watch next.

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President Trump addressed global leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos, clarifying that the United States will not invade Greenland—a statement that helped ease market volatility after recent geopolitical fears rattled equities and commodities.

In this morning update from the trading floor, Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down:

• Why Greenland matters strategically and why invasion fears were overblown

• How easing geopolitical tension is impacting financial and commodity markets

• China’s reported purchase of 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans

• Why soybean export risks remain skewed to the downside

• What upcoming EPA biofuel guidance could mean for the soybean complex

With Brazilian supplies entering the global market and China likely finished buying U.S. soybeans for now, Arlan explains what needs to happen for USDA export targets to be met—and where the risks lie.

Stay informed with real-time market insights directly from the trading floor.

Get exclusive access to daily insights, forecasts, and in-depth analysis from Arlan Suderman and the StoneX team with a subscription to U.S. Ag Analyst Insights: https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights?