Asia gasoil, jet/kerosene and gasoline cracks may stay elevated on limited exports from China

Demand for transportation fuels has been picking up in Asia, as higher vaccination rates and improved mobility push regional economies to open up to near pre-pandemic levels. Global oil supplies, however, are not keeping pace with this recovering demand. China's move to inject more fuel supplies into the Asian market by way of a supplementary second round of oil products export quotas in early June is unlikely to help improve regional demand-supply balances. Moreover, China's oil product exports in 2022 are likely to fall from 2021 levels as Beijing aims to minimize outflows to meet its net-zero target. Refining margins for clean transportation fuels like gasoil, jet/kerosene and gasoline skyrocketed to historical highs earlier this month. Even as cracks have inched lower since, expectations are these valuations will stay elevated in the foreseeable future. In this podcast, S&P; Global Commodity Insights' Rajesh Nair, Su Yeen Cheong, Oceana Zhou and Zhuwei Wang shed light on the current situation and discuss the scenarios that are likely to play out in the Asian clean fuels markets in the near to medium term.