Oil Markets

China will slash its clean oil product export tax rebates from 13% to 9% starting December 1, which will likely dampen outflows from Asia’s third-largest oil product exporter. While this move may be seen as China laying the groundwork for potential trade talks with the US, other factors, such as capacity rationalization and mounting government debt, could also be at play.

In light of a potential US-China trade war, Commodity Insights’ Asia oil news editor Neo Rong Wei, market specialist Oceana Zhou, and AltView’s Grace Lee discuss in the latest episode of the Oil Markets podcast how this could bode well for Chinese oil demand, while exploring the wider implications these developments may have on regional crude and oil product markets in the year ahead.

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After several false starts in developing domestic refining capacity, the African continent is now home to one of the world's largest refineries. But while Nigeria's Dangote refinery was expected to meet domestic fuel demand, distribution costs and affordability issues have driven it to export markets. 

With new projects soon to come on stream in Angola, Congo, Ghana and elsewhere, Francesco Di Salvo, Matthew Tracey-Cook and Kelly Norways discuss on the latest Oil Markets podcast episode the prospects for African refiners to meet the region's growing demand for oil, amid competitive start-ups in the Middle East and decarbonisation initiatives abroad.

Links: Gasoline Prem Unleaded 10ppmS FOB AR Barge - PGABM00 Gasoline CIF West Africa Cargo $/mt - AGNWC00 Nigeria's Dangote refinery to export first gasoline as local market struggles (subscriber content) Africa's refining resurgence on course despite margin risk (subscriber content)

Much has been said about Donald Trump's ambitions in upstream oil sector, specifically his promise to unleash US oil producers and boost output. Conventional oil refiners, many of which have invested in renewables, are hopeful that Trump will reduce support for electric vehicles, propping up demand for conventional fuels. Biofuels producers are looking for Trump to maintain the tax incentives that have incentivized investments in the industry under Joe Biden’s administration, and are hoping for an expansion of E15 blended gasoline. However, tariffs remain the wild card. 

Jeff Mower discusses these developments with senior downstream editor Janet McGurty, policy editor Eamonn Brennan, and US biofuels and feedstocks price editor Guadalupe Nunez.

The election of Donald Trump for a second term as US president has brought significant attention to US energy policy. Meanwhile, OPEC+ announced on November 3 its decision to delay tapering production cuts of 2.2 million b/d from December to January, having previously postponed from October 2024.

As markets absorb president-elect Trump’s victory, Payam Hashempour and Charlie Mitchell join Joel Hanley to analyze OPEC+ policy amid and beyond this political shake-up affecting the cartel’s major producer counterpart across the Atlantic.

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Crude production in the Permian Basin is growing, but pipeline capacity growth out of the West Texas/New Mexico play is lagging. With Permian crude output expected to reach roughly 7 million b/d by December 2025, some industry watchers are concerned that tight exit capacity could lead to wider crude price discounts for Midland WTI. Will the market see a repeat of August 2018, when the WTI Midland discount widened to $20/b because exit capacity fell short? Does US crude export growth present another potential bottleneck? And what does lower-than-expected US crude export demand mean for several planned terminal expansion on the US Gulf Coast?

Jeff Mower, director of Americas oil news, discusses pipeline capacity, crude export demand, and more with senior upstream oil editor Starr Spencer and midstream oil editor Binish Azhar.

The footprint of US crude oil is rapidly expanding, intensifying competition with OPEC and non-OPEC supplies in key Asian markets. As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate, how much US crude can fill potential supply gaps in Asia? Additionally, how could policies under a new US administration, whether led by Trump or Harris, impact oil outflows?

In a wide-ranging discussion with Sambit Mohanty, Asia energy editor, Joel Hanley, global director for crude oil at S&P Global Commodity Insights and Benjamin Tang, head of liquid bulk at S&P Global Commodities at Sea, share their insights on some of the key themes that could potentially have implications for Asia’s appetite for crude oil from the non-OPEC supplier, which is heading for a sharp growth in domestic output.

As high sulfur fuel oil cracks in Europe hover at year-to-date highs outside of their traditional summer peaks, reporters Tommy Petrou and Takis Gounaris join Joel Hanley to delve into the fundamentals that are providing a firm footing for fuel oil markets in Europe as heightened tensions in the Middle East stir up volatility across the commodities complex.

Links: FIRST TAKE Whatsapp channel: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029Vah2ZJPGJP8JnyPYbf46 3.5%S FOB Rdam Barge - PUABC00 3.5%S FOB Rdam Barge Brent Crack Mo01 - AATZT00 Rotterdam HSFO barges reach 3-month high amid tight supply (subscriber content)

California gasoline prices are notoriously volatile, and state's lawmakers are taking notice. California's Senate is considering a bill proposed by Governor Gavin Newsom that would require state refiners to increase gasoline inventories and would also give the state additional control over refinery maintenance programs. How much does California's boutique blend play into the state's high gasoline prices? What is the plan for fuel storage in the state amid the energy transition? Will California become even more dependent on fuel imports as refining capacity continues to shrink?

Jeff Mower, director of Americas Oil news, discusses with refined products news editor Janet McGurty, refined products price editor Zoe Vastakis, and refining analyst Matthew Gordon.

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As oil derivatives and futures contracts navigate volatile seas, how are the more prompt physical spot markets reacting to an expected return of Libyan supply amid other regional developments? Join Joel Hanley in this episode of the Oil Markets podcast as he engages with market experts Luke Stuart, George Delaney, and Joey Daly. They explore the impact of escalating tensions in the Middle East on crude prices in the Mediterranean, West Africa, and North Sea, providing critical insights into current market sentiment and what it means for traders and stakeholders navigating this volatile landscape.

Links:Cairo Energy ForumDated Brent - PCAAS00 WTI Midland CIF Rotterdam vs Fwd Dated Brent - WMCRB00 Azeri Light CIF Augusta - AAGZX00 CPC Blend CIF Augusta vs BTC Dtd Strip - AAHPL00 Bonny Light FOB Nigeria London vs WAF Dtd Strip - AAGXL00 Med sweet crude market under pressure amid expected return of Libyan barrels (subscriber content) Azeri Light differential collapses to four-week low as market eyes return of Libyan crude (subscriber content) Dual narrative emerges for Nigerian crude market as attention turns to Nov cycle (subscriber content) Ekofisk-WTI Midland spread at eight-month high amid diverging fundamentals (subscriber content)

Oil demand in India and China—the two Asian giants—was a key topic of discussion at the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference. China's oil demand going forward remains a significant concern for oil-producing nations as oil consumption from Asia’s largest economy is waning amid weaker-than-expected economic growth and ongoing property woes, a double whammy for diesel demand. Meanwhile, crude producers look to others, namely India to pick up the slack potentially.  

In this podcast, S&P Global Commodity Insights' Jonathan Nonis, associate editorial director is joined by Mriganka Jaipuriyar, head of news, APAC, and Pulkit Agarwal, head of India content to discuss the energy challenges in these two countries and their impact on oil markets for the rest of Asia. It also discusses the easing crude imports from China and its effects on the broader inter-Asia oil product market.