Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Alex Edmans is a Professor of Finance at London Business School and is one of the world's leading academics on company purpose, social value, and profit. Alex has a PhD from MIT as a Fulbright Scholar and was previously a tenured professor at Wharton and an investment banker at Morgan Stanley. In this podcast, we discuss:

1. Amateur vs. Professional Behavioural Errors
2. Direction Right, Speed Wrong in AI and Tech Bubbles
3. The Limits of Contrarian Strategies
4. Herding Mechanics and Social Network Traps
5. Slow Uptake on Corporate Intangibles
6. Subtle C-Suite Tells: AGMs and Corporate Jets
7. Arithmetic Misreactions and Narrow Framing
8. The Anchoring Trap & Disposition Bias
9. Overconfidence in Amateur Stock-Picking
10. Exploiting a Long Investment Horizon

Paul Cavey is a China-focused Asia economist with twenty-five years of experience covering the region. He runs East Asia Econ. Previously, he was a macro strategist in the global bond team at Wellington Management, head of China economics at Macquarie Securities and chief China economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. In this podcast, we discuss:

1. AI Hardware Demand & Regional Supply Chains
2. Taiwan's Real GDP Expansion vs. Korea's Terms-of-Trade Shock
3. Taiwan's Negative Real Interest Rates & Inflation Outlook
4. East Asia's Resilience to Global Energy Shocks
5. Bank of Korea Policy Hikes & Won FX Dynamics
6. Japan's Fiscal Revenue Boom & Manufacturing Catch-Up
7. BOJ Policy Path, Persistent Inflation, and Yen Weakness
8. China's Property Slump & Incremental Credit Easing
9. China's Auto Export Surge & Sovereign Tech Stack
10. Sovereign Balance Sheet Divergence & CGB Market Dynamics

Apurv Jain is the Founder and CEO of MacroX, a San Francisco-based startup building a real-time measurement layer for the global economy using alternative data. Before MacroX, Apurv built machine-learning investing systems at Microsoft, traded FX derivatives at Deutsche Bank, and worked at Bridgewater Associates. His research experience spans Microsoft Research and Harvard Business School, with publications and invited talks across academia, central banks, and global forums including Davos and the World AI Summit. He holds degrees from Georgia Tech and the University of Chicago and is passionate about mixed martial arts. In this podcast, we discuss:

1. Official Data Lags & Declining Survey Response Rates
2. 1,000+ Alternative Data Pipelines for Macro State Mapping
3. Real-Time Worker Bargaining Power vs. Lagged Wage Metrics
4. Multimodal AI: CNNs, BERT, and Targeted LLM Workflows
5. Nowcasting Lead: Gaining 2–3 Months Ahead of Official Prints
6. Next-Generation Nowcasting vs. Atlanta Fed GDP Models
7. Why the 2023 Yield Curve Recession Signal Failed
8. Current US Economic State & The "K-Shaped" Consumer
9. Portfolio Integration for Fundamental & Systematic Investors

Jay Pelosky is the founder of TPW Advisory. He has over 35 years of buy-side and sell-side financial market experience. Before going independent, Jay was at Morgan Stanley, where he was ranked #1 by Institutional Investor in Global Equity Strategy and Global Asset Allocation Strategy. In this podcast, we discuss:

1. The Tripolar World & Spending Super Cycle
2. US Valuation "Haircut" vs. Non-US Bargains
3. Reframing Bearish Narratives & High Nominal Growth
4. European Plays: Financial Consolidation, Spain, and Poland
5. Emerging Markets, China's Tech/Biotech, and Brazil Rate Cuts
6. Energy Security, Clean Energy Adoption, and Battery Plays
7. US Midterm Outlook & Policy Incoherence
8. Year-End "Face Ripper" Rally & Answering AI ROI

Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank. In this podcast, we discuss:

1. $100 Brent and Historic Backwardation
2. The Global Refined Product Crisis
3. Hormuz "Shuttle Trade" and War Insurance Costs
4. The Red Sea Chokepoint and Houthi Threat
5. Russian Refinery Attacks and Fuel Export Bans
6. China's Import Cuts and Hidden SPR Release
7. China's Potential Winter Refining Bailout
8. US Midterm Dilemmas and Export Ban Risks
9. India's LPG Crisis and Offshore SPR Deals
10. US Equity in Venezuela and Heavy Crude Spreads
11. Canada's Westward Pipeline Push

In this solo episode, Bilal flips the script to pull back the curtain on his personal research workflow, addressing a surge of questions from peers on how to effectively apply AI to financial market analysis using six core principles. Some key points include:

1. Machines Speaking Human
2. The "CLEAR" Prompting Framework
3. Gold-Standard Human Evaluation
4. Converting Prompts to "Skills"
5. Custom Session Memory & Feedback Loops
6. Delegating to "Co-Work" Agents
7. Reliable Market Analysis via RAG

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is the Chief US economist and macro strategist for Macro Hive and is based in Los Angeles. Before that, she worked at various hedge funds, including Bridgewater. Prior to the buy side, she worked at the New York Fed, IMF, and the World Bank. She holds a PhD in Economics from the London School of Economics. In this podcast, we discuss:

1. The "Low-Hire, Low-Fire" Labour Puzzle
2. The Imported AI Capex Illusion
3. Chips as the New Oil Supply Shock
4. The K-Shaped Consumer & GFC-Level Delinquency
5. The Fragile Savings Rate Cushion
6. The Return of FOMC Dissension
7. The Waller Swing Vote & the 2026 Rate Path
8. The 2027 AI De-escalation Surprise

Jon Turek is the founder and CEO of JST Advisors, a hedge fund advisory service that publishes a weekly research note with global macro trade ideas. JST Advisors works closely with hedge funds on developing asymmetric macro trade ideas and market themes. Outside of JST Advisors, Jon worked as a portfolio manager at Brevan Howard and as an analyst at Moore Capital. In this podcast, we discuss:

1. The Substack Divide of Equities vs. Macro
2. The Buy-Side Paradox of PM Asymmetry and Pod Reality
3. The "Owl" Fed and Political Optimisation over Conviction
4. The Trillion-Dollar AI Fiscal Program
5. The Death of the 2010s Savings Glut
6. Treasury Buybacks and "Whack-A-Mole" Markets
7. Europe's Impending China Tariff Shock
8. The Simmering Geopolitical In-Between for Oil

Branko is a research professor at the Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality at the City University of New York. He received his PhD from the University of Belgrade in 1987 and served as lead economist in the World Bank's Research Department for almost 20 years, leaving to write his book on global income inequality, Worlds Apart. He later worked at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, the University of Maryland, Johns Hopkins University, All Souls College in Oxford, and Universidad Carlos III in Madrid. Branko's main area of work is income inequality. He is the author of several books – the most recent one being The Great Global Transformation. In this podcast, we discuss:

1. The Shift to National Market Liberalism
2. The Geopolitical and Personal Impact of China
3. The Rise of "Homoplutia"
4. The "Folksy Elite" and Meritocratic Ideology
5. India's Alternative Development Model
6. Europe's Strategic and Economic Paradox
7. The Policy Dilemma of the "Elephant Chart"
8. Elite Multiplication and Youth Anxiety

Paul Krake is an investor, strategist, and independent researcher with three decades across macroeconomics, policy, and capital markets. In 2011, he founded the research platform View from the Peak after macro roles at Corus Capital, Caxton Associates, Moore Capital, Goldman Sachs, and Macquarie Bank. In this podcast, we discuss:

1. The "Post-Cyclical" Economy
2. The Reduction of Economic Friction
3. Margins vs. Labour Share
4. The Path to 10% Unemployment
5. The "Lucas Tree" Multiple Problem
6. Golden Age of Equity Investing
7. The "55-Year-Old Man" Advantage
8. Advice for Graduates: Atoms vs. Bits