Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Jesper Koll is Board Director at the Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology (OIST), founder and board director of Asia Society Japan, and Global Ambassador @ Monex Group and the Tokyo Financial Center. He previously served as Chief Strategist and Head of Research in Japan for major U.S. investment banks, including J.P. Morgan and Merrill Lynch. In this podcast, we discuss:

1. Japan's Holistic Socioeconomic Model
2. Transitioning from Abenomics Macro to a Stock-Picker's Market
3. Defence Exports as Prime Minister Takaichi's Flagship Industrial Driver
4. Breaking Factional Deals: The Shift Toward Political & Corporate Meritocracy
5. Takaichinomics & the 370 Trillion Yen Public-Private Industrial Policy
6. Corporate ROI, Overseas Earnings, and Energy Constraints (Modular Reactors)
7. The US-Japan $550 Billion Deal vs. Domestic Revitalisation
8. Bank of Japan Policy Normalisation & JGB Market Liquidity
9. Dollar/Yen Outlook & US Monetary Policy Spillovers
10. Demographic Sweet Spots & Japan's Pragmatic AI Strategy
11. The Evolution of Startup Culture & Established Corporate M&A
12. China Realities, Taiwan Synergies, and Korean Competition

Shahin Vallée is a former advisor to the President of the European Council (Herman Van Rompuy) and to the French Minister of Economy (Emmanuel Macron). He is also a researcher in political economy at DGAP (German Council on Foreign Relations) and a leading economic and political analyst. In this podcast, we discuss:

1. French Budget vs. Political Crisis
2. The Far-Right vs. Far-Left Runoff Scenario
3. French Polling Mechanics & Constituency-Level Risks
4. Le Pen's Fiscal Rule & Brussels Confrontation
5. Mélenchon's Surge & Centrist Fragmentation
6. General Election Scenarios & Governance Gridlock
7. ECB Interventions & German Political Friction
8. 2027 ECB Leadership Transition & European Risks

Tomasz Nadrowski is a portfolio manager at the Amvest Terraden Critical Minerals Fund. He was a former Director at the World Economic Forum and Vice President of Business Development at AngloGold Ashanti, then the world's largest gold producer. Tomasz has spent over fifteen years managing commodity and mining equity portfolios for hedge funds and family offices across the U.S., Europe, and Asia.

He is fluent in seven languages and a regular contributor to Oxford Analytica. He combines deep industry knowledge with a strategic understanding of how resources, markets, and power intersect in today's shifting geopolitical landscape. He is also the host of the podcast Tyranny Today. In this podcast, we discuss:

1. End of Pax Americana & Asymmetric Tech
2. Vulnerability of Maritime Chokepoints
3. The Sword Over the Shield (Wars of Attrition)
4. Western Re-Industrialization & Refining Bottlenecks
5. Rise of Western Hemisphere Energy Dominance
6. China's Critical Mineral Valve & "Game of Chicken"
7. Russian Gray-Zone Warfare in Europe
8. AI as Human "Unburdening"

Alex Edmans is a Professor of Finance at London Business School and is one of the world's leading academics on company purpose, social value, and profit. Alex has a PhD from MIT as a Fulbright Scholar and was previously a tenured professor at Wharton and an investment banker at Morgan Stanley. In this podcast, we discuss:

1. Amateur vs. Professional Behavioural Errors
2. Direction Right, Speed Wrong in AI and Tech Bubbles
3. The Limits of Contrarian Strategies
4. Herding Mechanics and Social Network Traps
5. Slow Uptake on Corporate Intangibles
6. Subtle C-Suite Tells: AGMs and Corporate Jets
7. Arithmetic Misreactions and Narrow Framing
8. The Anchoring Trap & Disposition Bias
9. Overconfidence in Amateur Stock-Picking
10. Exploiting a Long Investment Horizon

Paul Cavey is a China-focused Asia economist with twenty-five years of experience covering the region. He runs East Asia Econ. Previously, he was a macro strategist in the global bond team at Wellington Management, head of China economics at Macquarie Securities and chief China economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. In this podcast, we discuss:

1. AI Hardware Demand & Regional Supply Chains
2. Taiwan's Real GDP Expansion vs. Korea's Terms-of-Trade Shock
3. Taiwan's Negative Real Interest Rates & Inflation Outlook
4. East Asia's Resilience to Global Energy Shocks
5. Bank of Korea Policy Hikes & Won FX Dynamics
6. Japan's Fiscal Revenue Boom & Manufacturing Catch-Up
7. BOJ Policy Path, Persistent Inflation, and Yen Weakness
8. China's Property Slump & Incremental Credit Easing
9. China's Auto Export Surge & Sovereign Tech Stack
10. Sovereign Balance Sheet Divergence & CGB Market Dynamics

Apurv Jain is the Founder and CEO of MacroX, a San Francisco-based startup building a real-time measurement layer for the global economy using alternative data. Before MacroX, Apurv built machine-learning investing systems at Microsoft, traded FX derivatives at Deutsche Bank, and worked at Bridgewater Associates. His research experience spans Microsoft Research and Harvard Business School, with publications and invited talks across academia, central banks, and global forums including Davos and the World AI Summit. He holds degrees from Georgia Tech and the University of Chicago and is passionate about mixed martial arts. In this podcast, we discuss:

1. Official Data Lags & Declining Survey Response Rates
2. 1,000+ Alternative Data Pipelines for Macro State Mapping
3. Real-Time Worker Bargaining Power vs. Lagged Wage Metrics
4. Multimodal AI: CNNs, BERT, and Targeted LLM Workflows
5. Nowcasting Lead: Gaining 2–3 Months Ahead of Official Prints
6. Next-Generation Nowcasting vs. Atlanta Fed GDP Models
7. Why the 2023 Yield Curve Recession Signal Failed
8. Current US Economic State & The "K-Shaped" Consumer
9. Portfolio Integration for Fundamental & Systematic Investors

Jay Pelosky is the founder of TPW Advisory. He has over 35 years of buy-side and sell-side financial market experience. Before going independent, Jay was at Morgan Stanley, where he was ranked #1 by Institutional Investor in Global Equity Strategy and Global Asset Allocation Strategy. In this podcast, we discuss:

1. The Tripolar World & Spending Super Cycle
2. US Valuation "Haircut" vs. Non-US Bargains
3. Reframing Bearish Narratives & High Nominal Growth
4. European Plays: Financial Consolidation, Spain, and Poland
5. Emerging Markets, China's Tech/Biotech, and Brazil Rate Cuts
6. Energy Security, Clean Energy Adoption, and Battery Plays
7. US Midterm Outlook & Policy Incoherence
8. Year-End "Face Ripper" Rally & Answering AI ROI

Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank. In this podcast, we discuss:

1. $100 Brent and Historic Backwardation
2. The Global Refined Product Crisis
3. Hormuz "Shuttle Trade" and War Insurance Costs
4. The Red Sea Chokepoint and Houthi Threat
5. Russian Refinery Attacks and Fuel Export Bans
6. China's Import Cuts and Hidden SPR Release
7. China's Potential Winter Refining Bailout
8. US Midterm Dilemmas and Export Ban Risks
9. India's LPG Crisis and Offshore SPR Deals
10. US Equity in Venezuela and Heavy Crude Spreads
11. Canada's Westward Pipeline Push

In this solo episode, Bilal flips the script to pull back the curtain on his personal research workflow, addressing a surge of questions from peers on how to effectively apply AI to financial market analysis using six core principles. Some key points include:

1. Machines Speaking Human
2. The "CLEAR" Prompting Framework
3. Gold-Standard Human Evaluation
4. Converting Prompts to "Skills"
5. Custom Session Memory & Feedback Loops
6. Delegating to "Co-Work" Agents
7. Reliable Market Analysis via RAG

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is the Chief US economist and macro strategist for Macro Hive and is based in Los Angeles. Before that, she worked at various hedge funds, including Bridgewater. Prior to the buy side, she worked at the New York Fed, IMF, and the World Bank. She holds a PhD in Economics from the London School of Economics. In this podcast, we discuss:

1. The "Low-Hire, Low-Fire" Labour Puzzle
2. The Imported AI Capex Illusion
3. Chips as the New Oil Supply Shock
4. The K-Shaped Consumer & GFC-Level Delinquency
5. The Fragile Savings Rate Cushion
6. The Return of FOMC Dissension
7. The Waller Swing Vote & the 2026 Rate Path
8. The 2027 AI De-escalation Surprise