The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.

Higher sovereign bond yields are raising the cost of money across the global economy, with significant implications for emerging markets. In this episode of The Decisive, host Kristen Hallam speaks with Thea Fourie, Head of Middle East and Africa Insights and Analysis at S&P Global Market Intelligence, about the forces keeping borrowing costs elevated and why some economies are better positioned than others to withstand the pressure.

The conversation also explores the opportunities and transition risks created by artificial intelligence. Thea discusses how gaps in infrastructure, digital access, workforce skills and capital could widen the divide between economies—and what governments and businesses can do to improve AI readiness. She also previews El Niño as a key risk to watch in 2027, with potential consequences for growth, inflation, interest rates and government support.

In this episode, we discuss:

• Why sovereign bond yields have reached multi-decade highs
• How higher borrowing costs affect governments, businesses and households
• What makes some African and Middle Eastern economies more resilient than others
• Why electricity, digital access and workforce skills are central to AI readiness

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• Picture This: Sovereign yields have risen to multi-decade highs in major markets
• Picture This: Super El Niño Spurs Stagflationary Impulse in the Global Economy
• Global Economic Outlook: September 2026

For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

• Sovereign yield FAQs: Increases, implications and indicators of crises
• Impact of super El Niño
• Super El Niño 2026-27: Impact on Sub-Saharan Africa

Credits:

• Host: Kristen Hallam
• Guest: Thea Fourie
• Produced By: Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Feranmi Adeoshun

A potential Super El Niño could be far more than a weather event. It could become a global supply-side shock, disrupting food production, energy systems, mining, transport and trade while adding to inflation and political instability. In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, adapted from a Sept. 9 S&P Global Market Intelligence client webinar, experts examine how extreme weather could compound existing pressures across Asia-Pacific, Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and the wider global economy.

Listen to learn:

• Why a Super El Niño could produce a synchronized shock across agriculture, energy and logistics
• Why food prices—especially rice, wheat, cocoa, vegetable oil and sugar—are a critical channel into inflation, household spending and policy intervention
• Where drought, flooding and water stress pose the greatest risks to hydropower, mining, manufacturing and export infrastructure
• Which markets warrant close monitoring
• Which indicators companies should monitor over the next 90 days to judge whether risks are stabilizing or escalating

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• Picture This: Super El Niño Spurs Stagflationary Impulse in the Global Economy
• Geopolitical Risk Brief: September 2026
• Global Economic Outlook: September 2026

For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

• Impact of super El Niño
• Super El Niño 2026-27: Impact on Sub-Saharan Africa
• El Niño 2026–27: Agriculture, macroeconomic and policy implications for APAC

Credits:

• Host: Susan Minio
• Guests: Justin Valentino, Ahmad Mobeen, Martin Roberts
• Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Feranmi Adeoshun

The 2026 US midterm elections will shape control of Congress, influence policymaking at the federal and state levels, and help set the political landscape ahead of the 2028 presidential race. In this episode of The Decisive, host Kristen Hallam speaks with John Raines, Head of North America Country Risk at S&P Global Market Intelligence, about how scenario-based analysis can provide a more useful view of the elections than headline polling alone. They examine the forces affecting key congressional and gubernatorial races, including the cost of living, energy prices, trade policy and growing debate over AI and data centers. Kristen and John explore potential outcomes for the House and Senate and what each could mean for the US policy environment. Topics include the outlook for taxation, regulation, permitting, immigration enforcement and government spending, as well as the potential for legislative gridlock, funding disputes and increased congressional oversight. The episode also considers polling limitations, the possibility of delayed or contested results, and the implications for businesses navigating continued political uncertainty. Listen to learn:

• Why election analysis benefits from scenarios rather than a single forecast
• What makes the 2026 midterms significant for US federal and state policy
• Which economic and policy issues could shape voter decisions
• Why businesses may need to prepare for several possible policy environments

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• Geopolitical Risk Brief: September 2026
• Picture This: 2026 US Midterm Elections Could Reshape Policy Risk
• US flash PMI signals fastest growth for over five years in September

For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

• Scenario analysis of US midterm elections
• Middle East war
• Policy rate prospects

Credits:

• Host: Kristen Hallam
• Guest: John Raines
• Produced By: Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Feranmi Adeoshun

In this episode of The Decisive, host Paul Smith is joined by fellow economists Andrew Harker and Tim Moore to discuss the latest Purchasing Managers' Index data and what it reveals about the global economy, regional growth trends and construction-sector momentum.

Despite persistent headwinds — including geopolitical uncertainty, inflation concerns, supply chain disruption and unsettled bond markets — global business activity has shown notable resilience. The discussion explores the factors supporting growth across services and manufacturing, while also examining why business confidence remains subdued despite stronger output.

The episode also looks at PMI coverage across the Middle East, including signs of improving momentum in the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The conversation highlights the launch of the alrajhi capital Saudi Construction Index, which provides new monthly insight into residential, nonresidential and infrastructure activity in the region's largest construction market.

Paul, Andrew and Tim also compare Saudi construction trends with long-running construction PMI surveys in Europe and the UK, where housing activity remains under pressure from cautious demand, higher financing costs and economic uncertainty.

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• GCC economies demonstrate resilience in August
• Global Economic Outlook: September 2026
• Click here for the latest PMI Pulse data wrap

For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

• Monthly Macro Monitor
• Middle East war
• Policy rate prospects

Credits:

• Host: Paul Smith
• Guests: Andrew Harker, Tim Moore
• Produced By: Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

In this episode of The Decisive, Kristen Hallam speaks with Ken Wattret, Vice President of Global Economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence, who answers frequently asked questions shaping the macroeconomic outlook: why sovereign yields have been rising, whether AI-driven productivity gains could lower inflation and policy rates, and what a weaker US dollar could mean for the global economy. This conversation was recorded in May 2026, and the questions are still top of mind today. Ken explains that sovereign bond yields have moved higher as markets reassess inflation risks, central bank policy expectations and the sustainability of public finances. Higher energy prices have lifted inflation expectations, while concerns about second-round effects — from input costs to food prices — have added pressure. At the same time, investors are increasingly focused on high budget deficits and rising debt burdens, which may require higher returns to hold sovereign bonds. The conversation then turns to the UK, where sovereign yields have risen more than in other G7 markets. Ken highlights the UK's persistent inflation challenge, the prospect of renewed Bank of England rate hikes, elevated public debt and lingering investor sensitivity after the gilt-market volatility of 2022. Kristen and Ken also discuss whether an AI-driven productivity pickup could eventually lead to lower inflation and central bank policy rates. Ken describes this as an active and complex debate, especially in the US. While AI investment may support stronger productivity, he cautions that demand linked to AI spending has already increased, while the productivity gains have not yet been fully realized. Finally, the episode examines the US dollar. Ken explains that the dollar had weakened notably before rebounding during the early stages of the Middle East conflict, as safe-haven flows returned. Looking through near-term volatility, he says several fundamentals — including the dollar's still-high valuation, persistent US current account deficits and expected shifts in interest-rate differentials — point to further depreciation over time. A weaker dollar could help some economies offset imported inflation from higher energy prices, but for the US, the impact would be more mixed, particularly if the decline were sharp.

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• How AI Is Reshaping the Global Economic Outlook
• Global Economic Outlook: August 2026
• Picture This: US-Japan Yen intervention signals growing concern over global financial stability

For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

• How El Niño will impact growth and inflation across major Latin American economies
• Policy rate prospects

Credits:

• Host: Kristen Hallam
• Guest: Ken Wattret
• Produced By: Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

Every new gigawatt of data center capacity requires a massive physical build-out: steel, concrete, cooling systems, backup power, transformers, heavy equipment, server racks and supporting infrastructure. By one estimate, each gigawatt of new U.S. data center capacity could require roughly 100,000 truckloads, according to one estimate. In this episode of The Decisive, host Kristen Hallam speaks with Bill Cassidy, Senior Editor, Trucking and Domestic Transportation at the Journal of Commerce by S&P Global, and Paul Bingham, Director, Transportation Consulting, S&P Global Market Intelligence, about why data center construction is a freight capacity story. The conversation explores how surging demand from data center projects is arriving as the U.S. trucking market emerges from a post-pandemic freight recession, with capacity tightening, operating costs rising and regulatory enforcement removing some drivers and equipment from the market. As data center freight competes with retail, manufacturing, housing, energy and infrastructure shipments, shippers may face higher transportation costs, tighter capacity and more complex procurement decisions. Bill and Paul also discuss how demand is spreading across transportation modes — from flatbed and heavy-haul trucking to dry van, less-than-truckload, intermodal rail, ocean shipping and air cargo — and why shippers may consider adopting a more integrated, end-to-end view of logistics planning for major construction projects. The episode also previews themes that will be explored at the Journal of Commerce's Inland 26 Conference in Chicago, including freight demand, rates, capacity, network resilience and the broader economic outlook for transportation. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• Data centers pulling on already shrinking pool of US truck capacity
• Breakbulk industry warily wades into AI
• Click here to register for the Inland26 conference

For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

• Chokepoints vs. shortcuts: Supply chain outlook for critical maritime routes
• Red Sea maritime and aviation risks

Credits:

• Host: Kristen Hallam
• Guests: Bill Cassidy, Paul Bingham
• Produced By: Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

In this episode of The Decisive, taken from a July 15 webinar, S&P Global Market Intelligence economists discuss the latest shifts in the global macroeconomic outlook, including the resilience of the US economy, China's growth profile, political and fiscal developments in Latin America, and Europe's cautious recovery amid persistent energy, trade and consumer-demand headwinds.

Key themes

· Shaky economic foundations remain the core global theme. Geopolitical uncertainty, unstable inflation and interest-rate dynamics, trade frictions and strained public finances continue to weigh on the outlook.

· The US economy continues to show resilience. Lower energy intensity, AI-related investment and stronger equity valuations have helped support growth.

· Asia Pacific growth is still highly export-dependent. China and several regional economies continue to benefit from technology- and AI-related demand, while soft domestic demand and inflation risks remain key vulnerabilities.

· Latin America may be seeing an upside risk from political change. A shift toward more market-oriented policy agendas could improve investment conditions, although fiscal adjustment remains a major challenge across several economies.

· Europe has weathered the energy shock better than in past crises, but growth remains modest. Lower energy intensity, healthier labor markets and softer energy prices have helped, while weak consumer demand, trade uncertainty, industrial softness and limited fiscal room continue to constrain the outlook.

Why it matters

The episode underscores how global growth is being shaped by a mix of resilience and fragility. AI investment, lower energy intensity and improving policy prospects in some regions are offering support, while geopolitical shocks, sticky inflation, strained public finances, weak domestic demand and fragile trade conditions continue to limit the upside. For businesses and investors, the outlook requires close attention to regional differences, policy shifts and the channels through which energy, technology and fiscal risks affect growth.

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• Global Economic Outlook: August 2026
• How AI Is Reshaping the Global Economic Outlook
• Geopolitical Risk Brief: August 2026

For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

• Monthly Macro Monitor: Global economy shrugging off persistent uncertainty
• Recent economic resilience to shocks: So far so good, but don't take it for granted

Credits:

• Host: Ken Wattret
• Guests: Ben Herzon, Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch, Rafael Amiel, Raj Badiani
• Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

More than 90% of global trade moves by sea, but identifying who actually owns and controls the vessels behind that trade remains one of the maritime sector's biggest compliance challenges. In this episode of The Decisive, host Kristen Hallam speaks with Jeremy Domballe, Product Director of Maritime Intelligence and Risk, about the hidden ownership crisis at sea and why beneficial ownership transparency matters for sanctions compliance, illegal fishing, money laundering risk and supply chain integrity. Jeremy explains how complex corporate structures, shell companies, nominee arrangements and rapid ownership transfers can obscure the true decision-makers behind maritime assets. He also discusses why vessel tracking alone is not enough, how regulatory gaps create risk for governments and businesses, and why a more vessel-centric approach to due diligence — or "know your vessel" — is becoming essential. What you'll hear in this episode:

• Why beneficial ownership is one of the hardest maritime risks to identify clearly
• The limits of vessel tracking and port security when ownership data is opaque
• The business, legal, reputational and operational risks of engaging with vessels tied to hidden owners
• Practical steps regulators, port authorities, financial institutions and maritime companies can take to improve transparency
• Why "know your vessel" due diligence may become increasingly important for maritime risk management

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• Click here to access the latest Maritime State of Play report
• The Gulf Puzzle: Strategic Implications for Global Shipping Networks
• Transshipment: Frequently Asked Questions

For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

• Chokepoints vs. shortcuts: Supply chain outlook for critical maritime routes
• Red Sea maritime and aviation risks

Credits:

• Host: Kristen Hallam
• Guests: Jeremy Domballe
• Produced By: Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

In this episode of The Decisive, host Kristen Hallam shares highlights from a July 15 webinar on how Gulf Cooperation Council economies are adapting to trade disruption, infrastructure risk and shifting growth priorities. S&P Global Market Intelligence experts Kevjn Lim, Chris Rogers and Jamil Nayyem join Ralf Wiegert to discuss how the region is moving beyond immediate disruption toward longer-term questions about resilience, trade continuity and economic diversification.

The conversation explores the practical limits of alternative routes around the Strait of Hormuz; the role of pipelines, ports, rail and corridor connectivity; and the implications for supply chains that depend on Middle East petrochemicals and other industrial inputs. The panel also examines what recent PMI data suggest about supply conditions across the GCC, how infrastructure investment could support non-oil growth, and why geopolitical uncertainty, fiscal pressure and execution risk may shape the pace of recovery.

Topics covered include:

• How global buyers have responded to disruption in Middle East trade flows, including the different recovery paths for energy products, petrochemicals and industrial materials.
• The distinction between temporary workarounds and permanent bypass infrastructure around the Strait of Hormuz.
• Why pipelines, export terminals, port rerouting, rail links and multimodal corridors could make Gulf trade routes more layered and diversified.
• How June PMI data point to tentative improvements in supply conditions across parts of the GCC, while demand and confidence remain sensitive to geopolitical conditions.
• What resilience-led investment could mean for logistics hubs, industrial zones, port operators, freight forwarders, manufacturers and regional value chains.

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• Midyear Economic Check-In
• Geopolitical Risk Brief: July 2026
• Global outlook marred by further slide in emerging market business confidence

For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

• Middle East war
• Red Sea maritime and aviation risks

Credits:

• Hosts: Kristen Hallam, Ralf Wiegert
• Guests: Kevjn Lim, Jamil Naayem, Chris Rogers
• Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

In this episode of The Decisive, host Paul Smith is joined by senior economists Andrew Harker and Phil Smith to discuss the latest signals from the global Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data and what they reveal about the direction of the world economy.

The conversation revisits key themes from the previous PMI episode, including stockpiling, uncertainty, supply chain disruption and inflation risks linked to the tensions in the Middle East and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The economists explain how recent PMI data suggest some easing in inflation pressures and uncertainty, although both remain elevated compared with historical norms.

The episode also explores why high-frequency PMI data can be especially valuable during periods of economic volatility, helping businesses, policymakers and forecasters assess turning points before slower-moving official data becomes available. Paul discusses how PMI signals can be combined with broader macroeconomic projections to provide a clearer view of both near-term conditions and longer-term trends.

Other topics include the outlook for the eurozone economy, global export conditions, the continued impact of tariffs, and the divergence between weaker PMI export readings and stronger official export data driven in part by AI-related demand. Phil and Andrew highlight how the AI boom is showing up in semiconductor prices, manufacturing performance and capital expenditure intentions, particularly in the US.

The episode closes with a look ahead to future PMI research on AI adoption and its impact on the workforce. This is the final episode before the summer break, with The Decisive returning in August for more insights and analysis.

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• PMI data and commentary
• Global Economic Outlook: July 2026
• Click here to learn how the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and the World Economic Service (WES) help corporate planners interpret shifting global growth signals

For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

• Middle East war
• Policy rate prospects

Credits:

• Host: Paul Smith
• Guests: Andrew Harker, Phil Smith
• Produced By: Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun