In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, S&P Global Market Intelligence's team of Purchasing Managers' Index economists decodes inflation, highlighting the stark differences between the US and Eurozone. 

Join host Paul Smith and fellow economists Andrew Harker and Phil Smith as they explore the underlying factors driving these trends, including tariffs and exchange rate movements. The team analyzes the latest PMI numbers from Germany and discuss how inflation expectations shape price pressures and client behavior, using Ghana as a compelling case study.

The economists also look for clues into what firms worldwide are planning for the upcoming year in our Business Outlook data. The discussion features special questions regarding the impact of tariffs, focusing on Germany, the US, and Ireland, where these effects are expected to be significant. As they wrap up, they consider investment and employment strategies amid an uncertain economic landscape.

Tune in for a comprehensive look at the forces shaping our global economy and what they mean for businesses moving forward.

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• Strong currency appreciation opens door to interest rate cuts in Ghana
• Global economic outlook: June 2025
• Trade and tariffs insights and news

Credits:

• Host: Paul Smith
• Guests: Andrew Harker, Phil Smith
• Produced By: Sophie Carr
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Feranmi Adeoshun 

In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam is joined by S&P Global Market Intelligence experts Chris Rogers and John Raines to unpack the latest developments in U.S. tariffs and trade policy as of July 9.

With the U.S. administration's approach to leveraging tariffs as a negotiation tool, the experts assess recent agreements with countries like Vietnam, the U.K., and China, and the complexities surrounding ongoing negotiations.

The team also examines the implications of transshipment practices, particularly in Southeast Asia, and the legal challenges currently facing tariff implementations. As the administration aims to revitalize U.S. manufacturing while navigating intricate international relationships, this episode provides critical insights into the future of trade relations and the potential economic impacts on both domestic and global markets.

Listen now to an engaging discussion of the evolving landscape of tariffs and trade. 

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• Tariff Uncertainty Is Likely to Continue Through Late 2025
• Implications of the India-UK Free-Trade Agreement
• Trade and tariffs insights and news

Credits:

• Host: Kristen Hallam
• Guests: Chris Rogers, John Raines
• Produced By: Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Kristen Hallam
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun 

How do you identify which markets present the best opportunity for growth, and which are especially vulnerable to fluctuating trade and tariff policies?

In this episode of The Decisive podcast, host Kristen Hallam uncovers the origin stories behind two tools created to address these key questions: the Strategic Opportunity Index (SOI) and the Trade and Tariff Vulnerability Index (TTV). Joining Kristen for this discussion are expert guests Cassandra Pagan, Justin Valentino, and Natasha McSwiggan. 

The discussion begins with an exploration of the SOI, designed to provide clarity in a complex geopolitical and trade landscape by evaluating market attractiveness through five key pillars: market potential, policy favorability, institutional quality, logistics efficiency, and resource availability. The guests share insights on how momentum scoring within the SOI helps identify expanding market opportunities, emphasizing the importance of understanding market trajectories rather than just current standings.

The conversation also highlights the origin stories behind both indices, showcasing the collaborative efforts of the team to create tools that can guide strategic decision-making for businesses navigating global trade dynamics. The experts discuss how the TTV assesses the vulnerability of economies to tariffs, providing valuable insights for businesses to adapt and strategize in the face of evolving U.S. trade policies.

Listeners will gain a deeper understanding of how these indices can inform economic decisions, identify potential risks, and uncover opportunities in the global marketplace. Join us for an engaging discussion that combines analytical rigor with practical applications, perfect for anyone interested in the intersection of economics and global trade.

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• The Strategic Opportunity Index
• Uncertain US Tariff Policy Raises Risks for Trading Partners
• Country Risk Month Ahead: July 2025

Credits:

• Host: Kristen Hallam
• Guests: Cassandra Pagan, Justin Valentino, Natasha McSwiggan
• Produced By: Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun 

In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam is joined by analysts Jacob Lees Weiss and Kevjn Lim to explore the intricate and rapidly shifting risk landscape in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. 

Recorded before significant military operations in Iran, the discussion explores nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran, the implications of potential sanctions, and the dynamics of Israeli military strategy.

The episode highlights key geopolitical tensions, including the evolving relationship between the US and Israel and the impact of these factors on the Israel-Hamas conflict. Listeners will gain insights into the challenges facing the Syrian Transitional Government and the role of foreign support in stabilizing the region.

With a focus on the potential for both conflict and cooperation, this episode provides a comprehensive overview of the MENA region's current state and future outlook, making it essential listening for anyone interested in international relations, economics, and market intelligence.

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• Picture This: Israel-Iran Conflict Leads to Sharp Shock in Global Growth
• Maritime shadow fleet − Formation, operation and continuing risk for sanctions compliance teams in 2025
• Trade and tariffs insights and news

Credits:

• Host: Kristen Hallam
• Guests: Kevjn Lim, Jacob Lees Weiss
• Produced By: Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun 

In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam is joined by Max Janthur, the product specialist for Port Performance, to delve into the critical issue of congestion at the world's ports. As global trade continues to evolve, understanding the role of ports becomes increasingly vital for economies and supply chains.

Max shares insights from the latest Port Performance report, highlighting the significant risks and impacts of port congestion, including increased operational costs, supply chain disruptions, and environmental concerns. The discussion explores key metrics related to port efficiency, such as vessel turnaround times and berth productivity, and how these factors influence the broader economic landscape.

Listeners will gain a deeper understanding of the challenges ports face and the importance of monitoring trends to mitigate disruptions. Max emphasizes that port congestion remains a real risk for global trade, making this conversation essential for government officials, carriers, port operators, and supply chain strategists alike.

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• Global Port Congestion Analysis − Port Performance Program
• Robust demand emerges on Asia-Europe ocean trade as peak season begins
• Trade and tariffs insights and news

Credits:

• Host: Kristen Hallam
• Guests: Max Janthur
• Produced By: Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun 

In this episode of the Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam dives deep into the complex world of the maritime shadow fleet, exploring its emergence and evolution since the introduction of the oil price cap on December 5, 2022. Joined by Ines Nastali, Senior Supply Chain Analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence, the discussion covers how these oil tankers operate outside traditional regulatory frameworks, often evading sanctions imposed by various governments.

Listeners will gain insights into the size and characteristics of the shadow fleet, which includes an estimated 940 tankers, many of which are older vessels that may not meet modern safety standards. Ines shares key statistics, including the significant increase in shadow fleet activity and the sophisticated tactics employed by these vessels to circumvent sanctions, such as turning off AIS signals and engaging in ship-to-ship transfers.

The episode also highlights recent enforcement actions taken against shadow fleet vessels, particularly in the Baltic Sea, and discusses the environmental and safety concerns associated with these aging ships. Tune in to understand the implications of the shadow fleet on global oil trade and the evolving landscape of maritime compliance.

Whether you're a maritime professional, a supply chain analyst, or simply curious about the intricacies of global oil transportation, this episode offers valuable insights and a comprehensive overview of a pressing issue in today's geopolitical climate.

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• Maritime shadow fleet − Formation, operation and continuing risk for sanctions compliance teams in 2025
• Fraudulent flags: Growing challenge for maritime safety
• The New Tariff Reality: Preparing for Disruption, Defending Your Margins

Credits:

• Host: Kristen Hallam
• Guest: Ines Nastali
• Produced By: Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun 

In this episode of The Decisive, we're sharing highlights from our US macroeconomic webinar on May 20, featuring expert commentary from our economics team at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

We dive deep into the forecast for the US economy, which faces a slowdown. Projected growth is expected to average just 0.8% per quarter in 2025, raising questions about the potential for a recession. We explain the anatomy of a recession, walking through recent examples, and share our outlook. 

Our economists also discuss the implications of elevated tariffs, which are contributing to inflationary pressures and reshaping business investment decisions. The Federal Reserve's cautious approach amid policy uncertainty is also explored, with expectations for a pause in rate adjustments until late 2026.

Listeners will gain valuable perspectives on the rising federal budget deficit, projected to increase from 6% to 7% over the next decade, and its effects on the US dollar, which is anticipated to weaken in the coming years.

Join us for this informative episode as we unpack these critical economic trends and equip you with the knowledge to navigate the evolving landscape. Stay curious and stay informed with The Decisive Podcast.

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• Recession Risks
• Global Economic Outlook: May 2025
• Trade and tariffs insights and news

Credits:

• Host: Alyssa Grzelak
• Guests: Juan Turcios, Ben Herzon, Pat Newport, Mike Konidaris
• Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun 

In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam explores the complex landscape of tariffs under the current administration, focusing on the implications of Section 232 reviews. Joined by experts Chris Rogers and John Anton, the conversation covers the nuances of industry-specific tariffs that impact a wide range of sectors, from steel and aluminum to electronics and pharmaceuticals.

Listeners will gain insights into the ongoing tariff negotiations, the potential ramifications for supply chains, and the strategic decisions companies must make in response to these economic shifts. With a keen eye on upcoming deadlines, including the pivotal date of July 9th, this episode provides a comprehensive overview of how tariffs could reshape market dynamics and influence pricing strategies across various industries.

Tune in to stay informed and prepared for the changes ahead in the world of trade.

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• IEEPA Tariffs on Hold Following Court Ruling
• Delayed Increase in US Tariffs on EU Indicates Preference for Negotiated Solution
• Trade and tariffs insights and news

Credits:

• Host: Kristen Hallam
• Guests: Chris Rogers, John Anton
• Produced By: Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun 

In this episode of The Decisive podcast, experts from S&P Global Market Intelligence explore the complexities of global trade negotiations and their profound impact on geopolitical relationships. The panel discusses the objectives behind U.S. trade policy, including the implementation of tariffs as negotiation tools and their implications for job markets and elections.

Gain a comprehensive understanding of how countries in Southeast Asia and members of the European Union are navigating the dynamic trade environment, striving to maintain economic growth while advocating for reform in the global trade system. The episode also highlights the strategic importance of trade relationships for Latin American countries, particularly Mexico, as they balance ties with the U.S. and China amid evolving tariff discussions.

Join us for an engaging exploration of how current tariff negotiations are reshaping international relations and vice versa. 

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• Country Risk Month Ahead: May 2025
• Trade and tariffs insights and news
• Power Plays in 2025: Download the full report

Credits:

• Host: Kristen Hallam
• Guests: John Raines, Anton Alifandi, Dijedon Imeri, Jose Enrique Sevilla-Macip
• Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun 

In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, S&P Global Market Intelligence's Paul Smith is joined by fellow economists Andrew Harker and Annabel Fiddes to explore the latest findings from the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data. The discussion focuses on the significant impact of recent tariff announcements on the global economy, with a particular emphasis on Asia.

Listeners will gain insights into the current state of global goods trade, which has seen a notable decline in manufacturing new export orders—the largest month-on-month reduction since August 2023. The episode also explores the mixed manufacturing output trends across Asia, highlighting strong performances in some regions alongside declines in others, particularly due to shifting US trade policies.

Additionally, the podcast addresses the labor market trends in the UK, examining how changes in payroll costs and national insurance rates have affected hiring practices and candidate availability. With global business confidence at a two-and-a-half-year low, this episode provides a comprehensive overview of the economic landscape, offering valuable insights for policymakers and industry professionals alike.

Listen now to stay informed on the latest economic developments and understand how high-frequency data can guide decision-making in uncertain times.

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• Goods producers in Asia signal sharp loss of export momentum
• Trade and tariffs insights and news
• Power Plays in 2025: Download the full report

Credits:

• Host: Paul Smith
• Guests: Andrew Harker, Annabel Fiddes
• Produced By: Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun