The Macro Trading Floor

Alf and Brent discuss recent developments in macro and labor market data, and debate whether the Fed will cut by 25 or 50 bps in September. Is the bond market overestimating the amount of upcoming cuts, or economic weakness will require the Fed to cut rates even more aggressively? They then move to investigate how long-term investing bias can negatively affect short-term oriented trading decisions, and how to measure consensus.

Free trial to Alf's Institutional Research: https://forms.gle/6bXTD5ApyrdvSv798

Subscribe to Brent's newsletter: https://www.spectramarkets.com/am-fx/

Commodities are the worst-performing asset class over the past 20 years:

https://www.mfs.com/content/dam/mfs-enterprise/mfscom/sales-tools/sales-ideas/mfsp_20yrsa_fly.pdf

Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/the-macro-trading-floor-transcript-6-september-2024/

In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss how cross-asset pricing in bonds, FX and equity markets has rapidly changed in August and compare it with the hard economic reality: are there opportunities to be exploited? They then make a deep dive on the US Dollar, and finally cover a crucial trading framework topic: when and how to use options instead of linear structures to put up macro trades?

FREE TRIAL to Alf's Institutional Macro Research: https://www.tinyurl.com/FreeTrialResearch

Sign up to Brent's newsletter: www.spectramarkets.com/subscribe

Brent's dedicated piece on options vs linear trades: https://50in50.substack.com/p/trade-6-options-or-cash

Transcript link here: https://www.spectramarkets.com/the-macro-trading-floor-transcript-23-august-2024/

Alf and Brent reflect on the immense volatility hitting markets recently, and specifically on the unwind of carry trades: are we done here or is there more to come? Most importantly, they describe how to design and apply a risk management and position sizing framework so that when everybody panics you don't need to.

Want to reach out to Alf? Ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg

Brent Donnelly can also be reached on Bloomberg, or via spectramarkets.com

Transcript link here: https://www.spectramarkets.com/the-macro-trading-floor-transcript-12-august-2024/

Alf and Brent reflect on the massive bond market rally and the explosive move in the Japanese Yen - what’s next for macro?

To contact Alf: send him an email at [email protected] or contact him on Bloomberg (Alfonso Peccatiello)

To contact Brent: ping him on Bloomberg (Brent Donnelly) or go on http://www.spectramarkets.com/

Brent’s piece on positioning: https://50in50.substack.com/p/trade-11-sentiment-and-positioning

Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/the-macro-trading-floor-transcript-02-august-2024/

This week, Alf and Brent discuss the brutal equity market sell-off: is it due to macro tectonic shifts, a reassessment of political risks or an unwind of crowded trades?

The duo digs deep trying to connect the dots, and they also discuss a trading framework around this large volatility events.

Alf and Brent look into various ''Trump trades'' now that the odds of a Trump election and Republican sweep have increased: is there still juice left? And where? Specifically, they also reflect on the use of options as macro traders.

Want to see Alf's Cheap Optionality Monitor?

Ping him (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg

And take advantage of Brent's course offer!

Think Like a Market Professional:

www.spectramarkets.com/school - use code JULY24 for $500 off

Stuff mentioned during the podcast:

GS piece on AI    https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/gs-research/gen-ai-too-much-spend-too-little-benefit/report.pdf?ref=wheresyoured.at

Ed Zitron pieces on AI

https://www.wheresyoured.at/pop-culture/

https://www.wheresyoured.at/put-up-or-shut-up/

White House statement on Biden (find the spelling error)

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/07/17/statement-from-press-secretary-karine-jean-pierre-3/

Alf and Brent discuss the interesting market reaction to the weak US CPI report, and they dig deep into the '''Trump trade'': how would you trade a Trump victory and why? They also talk about the US Dollar and bond markets.

Want to chat with Alf on Bloomberg? Ping him (Alfonso Peccatiello)

You can find Brent's work on Spectra Markets or ping him on BBG (Brent Donnelly)

Transcript of the episode: https://www.spectramarkets.com/the-macro-trading-floor-transcript-12-july-2024/

Elm Toin Coss experiment: https://elmwealth.com/coin-flip/

In this episode, Alf invites Cem Karsan to discuss what's going on in option markets. Cem does a great job at explaining what's the dispersion trade, how big it has become, and how it might unwind wreaking havoc across asset classes. Alf and Cem also discuss macro and how to use options to structure good risk/reward trade ideas.

Visit Cem's website: https://www.kaivolatility.com/

A big macro week is behind us: the combination of CPI and PPI releases provide us with solid information on where the disinflation trend stands. Alf and Brent also discuss Powell’s press conference + change in dots and the European political risks.

Want to get in touch with Alf or Brent?

Ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg

Ping Brent Donnelly on Bloomberg

Alf and Brent discuss the ECB and Bank of Canada cuts, and reflect on the big bond market moves seen recently coupled with carry trade implosions. The discussion focuses around risk management principles to prevent bad left tail outcomes when running carry trades, and how to identify positive expected value trades in macro.

Alf is offering a 2-weeks free trial to his institutional research: ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg to get in.

Brent just launched Spectra School: www.spectramarkets.com/school

Transcript of this episode: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-07-june-2024/

Paper about the real value of gold: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4807895

The Signing of the Boob: https://x.com/donnelly_brent/status/1798055339881107626