The Macro Trading Floor

In this week's episode, Brent and Alf discuss the implications of a Republican sweep. Markets reacted in a textbook way, but today they are busy unwinding most ''Trump trades''. Should we take Trump's agenda at face value and assume it's negative for bonds and positive for the USD? Or should we instead dig deeper and figure out what Trump really wants?

FREE trial to Alf's research: https://forms.gle/jF2nnD2VoNuQjem86

Check out Brent's research: https://www.spectramarkets.com/

Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-08nov24/

Heading into US elections, US bond markets are on fire: yields are selling off, the term premium is back in positive territory, and investors are worried the sell-off can extend further.

Alf and Brent discuss a framework to assess bond yields, the role of tariffs, how to look at the US Dollar and they also zoom in on Canada where the Central Bank has been forced to aggressively cut interest rates.

FREE trial to Alf's research: https://forms.gle/jF2nnD2VoNuQjem86

Check out Brent's research: https://www.spectramarkets.com/

Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-25oct24/

Alf and Brent discuss the recent sharp moves in US election polls and betting markets: Trump's odds are moving up, and so are the odds of a Red Sweep. Is the market fully incorporating these odds? Also, the duo discusses the possibility of persistent financial repression regardless of who prevails in US elections. Finally, they engage in a discussion about the importance of correlations for macro portfolios.

Want to be in touch with Alf? Ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg or enroll in the two-weeks free trial of his institutional research: https://forms.gle/5GfSwfzovsFpCA5q7

Want to be in touch with Brent? Ping Brent Donnelly on Bloomberg or visit spectramarkets.com

Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-18oct24/

Alf and Brent discuss the most recent US macro data releases: the hurricane impacted jobless claims, and core inflation has surprised to the upside. Trump now seems to decidedly lead the polls, and his policies could be inflationary. Did the Fed make a mistake by cutting 50 bps? The duo also discusses the Saturday Chinese fiscal press conference, and how to handle seasonality in your trading framework.

Alf's Macro Research Trial (Free): https://forms.gle/6azecq2XhMW2ZFXa8

Brent's Newsletter: https://www.spectramarkets.com/

Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-11oct24/

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Alf and Brent discuss the many risks on the horizon: the Middle-East escalation, China following up (or not) with real economic stimulus, elections and more.

Today’s episode: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-04oct24/

The Chinese stimulus bazooka has been fired.

Chinese authorities have announced aggressive interest rate cuts, a 1 trillion yuan capital injection for Chinese banks, and they 

are also mentioning the magic words: fiscal stimulus.

As a result, stocks are soaring and commodities are rallying.

But - is it really going to work? And can China really afford such a stimulus?

Alf and Brent unpack this in today's show.

Elm's ''Crystal Ball'' Trading Game: https://elmwealth.com/crystal-ball-challenge/

Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-27sep2024/

Alf and Brent discuss the jumbo 50 bps Fed cut and the nuances Powell shared during the press conference. They look at historical parallels to derive how to best approach different asset classes with a specific focus on the USD. They also cover the Chinese economy which seems to be slowly imploding from within.

We are now also on Youtube, where you can see supporting charts and our bald heads.

https://youtu.be/o1iDoADS0c4

Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-20sep2024/

Alf and Brent discuss similarities and differences between the world and the macro cycle today versus the pre-pandemic period. While the cycle might look similar, should we not pay attention to the structural differences too? The duo moves on to discuss the aggressive bond market pricing and how to trade around that. Finally, they focus on the US Dollar: will it perform nicely or poorly if we get a recession?

Free trial to Alf's institutional macro research: https://forms.gle/yNU1vBqCqRXSvEHA7

Sign up to Brent's newsletter: https://www.spectramarkets.com/subscribe/

Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/the-macro-trading-floor-transcript-13-september-2024/

Alf and Brent discuss recent developments in macro and labor market data, and debate whether the Fed will cut by 25 or 50 bps in September. Is the bond market overestimating the amount of upcoming cuts, or economic weakness will require the Fed to cut rates even more aggressively? They then move to investigate how long-term investing bias can negatively affect short-term oriented trading decisions, and how to measure consensus.

Free trial to Alf's Institutional Research: https://forms.gle/6bXTD5ApyrdvSv798

Subscribe to Brent's newsletter: https://www.spectramarkets.com/am-fx/

Commodities are the worst-performing asset class over the past 20 years:

https://www.mfs.com/content/dam/mfs-enterprise/mfscom/sales-tools/sales-ideas/mfsp_20yrsa_fly.pdf

Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/the-macro-trading-floor-transcript-6-september-2024/

In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss how cross-asset pricing in bonds, FX and equity markets has rapidly changed in August and compare it with the hard economic reality: are there opportunities to be exploited? They then make a deep dive on the US Dollar, and finally cover a crucial trading framework topic: when and how to use options instead of linear structures to put up macro trades?

FREE TRIAL to Alf's Institutional Macro Research: https://www.tinyurl.com/FreeTrialResearch

Sign up to Brent's newsletter: www.spectramarkets.com/subscribe

Brent's dedicated piece on options vs linear trades: https://50in50.substack.com/p/trade-6-options-or-cash

Transcript link here: https://www.spectramarkets.com/the-macro-trading-floor-transcript-23-august-2024/