There are always many narratives about what drives markets higher or lower but increasingly investors are turning to quantitative measures like style factors to decouple the signal from the noise and pinpoint what is actually behind major market moves. In this interview, Chris Carrano VP of Strategic Research at Venn by Two Sigma breaks down the orthogonal market factors that drove asset prices in 2024 and what is driving them so far in 2025. He also examines key moments like the post Trump rally in November, December’s equity market wobble post FOMC, and the recent reaction to cooling CPI data. Filmed on January 17, 2025.

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Read the Venn by Two Sigma Blog: https://www.venn.twosigma.com/insights

This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by VanEck. 

Learn more about VanEck Uranium & Nuclear ETF: http://vaneck.com/NLRJack

Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. Visit vaneck.com or call 800.826.2333 to read and consider the prospectus, containing the investment objective, risks, and fees of the fund. Carefully read before investing. 

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Luke Gromen, Founder & President, Forest for the Trees (FFTT), joins Monetary Matters to share his thoughts on the rapidly selling off Treasury market and strong U.S. Dollar. Recorded on January 13, 2025.

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If you weren’t in large and often expensive technology stocks you likely struggled as a hedge fund manager in 2024. For small/mid-cap value investors like Kyle Mowery, Portfolio Manager and Founder of Grizzly Rock Capital, who’ve sold their investors a mandate that makes it nearly impossible to go buy the NVIDIAs of the world you can only fall back on communication and the clear expectations you’ve set with your investors. The problems plaguing small cap value managers are not new though, and if you are still practicing what Mowery calls “the old ways,” 2024 was likely not the first tough year you’ve had to explain. Here, Mowery explains how he’s adjusted his strategy over 13 years of existence to adapt to changing market structure, why he thinks of you have skills joining a pod is better than starting your own fund, and things he would do differently if he was setting up Grizzly Rock in 2025.

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Find more on Grizzly Rock Capital here: https://www.grizzlyrockcapital.com/

Steve Hou, Researcher at Bloomberg Indices, joins Monetary Matters to share his work on Treasury Issuance patterns and equity index construction. Hou explains that “the supply effect” (i.e. the degree to which issuance of long-term bonds rises bond yields is related to stock/bond correlation). He shares several findings from his work on indices related to pricing power, research and development (R&D), and other factors, and at the end he offers his macro views on bond yields and the increasingly concentrated stock market. Recorded on January 7, 2025.

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Chapter 1 of Steve’s dissertation (“When is the supply effect large in the government bond market?”): https://finance.unibocconi.eu/sites/default/files/files/media/attachments/SteveHou_JMP20180115111812.pdf

Steve’s work on the innovation factor (R&D): https://t.co/VSSpiUExWL

Steve’s work on pricing power: https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/insights/financial-services/cracking-the-code-of-pricing-power/

Work on Analyst ratings upgrades: https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/insights/trading/analyst-ratings-improvers-a-bet-on-turnaround-companies/

Jack Farley and Max Wiethe of the Monetary Matters network break down the sell-off in stocks after a strong December jobs report and hot inflation expectations reading surprises markets. Recorded afternoon of January 10.

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Philadelphia Fed work on early : https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/economy/articles/economic-insights/2022/q3-q4/eiq3q422_rs-measuring-state-employment.pdf

https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/early-benchmark-revisions

Bloomberg Opinion piece on Equity Risk Premia:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-01-10/who-s-afraid-of-rising-treasury-yields-not-stocks?srnd=opinion

Mel Mattison, investor, monetary theorist, and former fintech executive, joins Monetary Matters to share how he’s thinking about the next few years for the financial system. Stunned that Mel’s “6,000 by year-end 2024” prediction actually happened, Jack asks Mel why he now expects a violent correction in early 2025 while at the same time extending his S&P 500 forecast to the stunningly high 15,000 level by the end of 2028. They also discuss Bretton Woods 2.0, incoming Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, potential revaluation of gold, and several advanced monetary topics. Recorded December 30, 2024. 

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Mel Mattison’s website https://www.melmattison.com/

Mel Mattison’s book “Quoz”: https://www.melmattison.com/quoz

When was the last time you heard about an exciting new mutual fund launch? It’s probably been a while. Despite ETFs, hedge funds, and burgeoning asset classes like private credit taking all the headlines, mutual funds still control over $20 trillion in AUM. So, how does one raise assets in the 2020s with a product many associate with a time gone by? Eric Crittenden, CIO and Founder of Stand Point Asset Management, joins OPM to share how his mutual fund has done just that and reached over $1 billion in AUM in less than 5 years.

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Jason Cave, Senior Consultant at Potomak Global Partners, has over 30 years in bank and financial regulatory experience having worked at both the FDIC and FHFA. In this interview, Cave explains why he’s expecting a much better environment for banks of all sizes in the new regulatory regime under Trump. He discusses why he thinks the FDIC will finally open up bank M&A, the Basel III Endgame will be at least paused, and what he thinks of the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

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Citrini just raised the price of Citrini Research by 25%. Monetary Matters listeners can get access to the LOWER 2024 pricing with this link (offer expires February 15):

https://www.citriniresearch.com/subscribe?coupon=d11a5439

The cross-asset thematic investor known only as Citrini returns to Monetary Matters. James reflects on his trades of 2024 in his “Citrindex” which was up 65% in 202 (January 1, 2024 to December 23, 2024). Citrini shares excerpts from his “25 trades for 2025” piece at Citrini Research, covering everything from homebuilders, to drones, to Ukraine normalization trades and power capacitors. Recorded Christmas Eve December 24, 2024.

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With the end of year approaching and SOFR/IOR spreads widening, Darrell Duffie, renowned and prolific monetary scholar, joins Monetary Matters to share his views on why liquidity strains often appear at quarter- and year-end. Duffie explains his work on the September 2019 repo blowout and shares his findings that timing of bank payments is a better predictor of SOFR/IOR stress than the SOFR/IOR spread itself. Duffie also shares his views on debt-to-GDP levels, the theory that the Treasury has engaged in “stealth QE,” and the impact of SOFR transition on bank funding costs. Recorded on December 27, 2024. 

Duffie Piece On Reserves Discussed For Most Of Interview (“Reserves Were Not So Ample After All”): https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr974

Duffie Piece on SOFR vs. LIBOR impact on bank debt-overhang cost (discussed at end, “Bank Funding Risk, Reference Rates, and Credit Supply”): https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr1042

Darrell Duffie’s website https://www.darrellduffie.com/

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