This episode is brought to you by Fundamental Edge. Learn more about their new AI Academy for buyside professionals: https://www.fundamentedge.com/ai-academy

Raj Shah and Cullen Rose of Stoic Point Capital Management join OPM for a specials double episode. In the first half we explore their view that we may be in for a repeat of the 2020 to 2021 new issuance cycle and how some of their favorite opportunities are still orphaned securities from that last cycle. They explain why small caps undergoing change events like new issuance or that are misunderstood due to crisis & controversy are their favorite as concentrated small cap investors.

Make sure to check out the OPM classic episode we recorded with Stoic Point Capital Management over on the main Other People's Money podcast feed.

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This episode of Monetary Matters is a Sponsored Fireside Chat brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHJack

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The AI revolution has spurred a growth in capital expenditure on semiconductors the scale of which the world has never seen before. Today Jack explores this phenomenon in a sponsored Fireside Chat with VanEck’s Angus Shillington and Nick Frasse. Shillington, lead semiconductor analyst and deputy portfolio manager, argues CapEx on semiconductors is increasing so much because cloud computing hyperscalers are unable to keep up with demand, and they feel pressure from their competitors. In addition, the expenditure is being spent by the most profitable companies on earth such as Microsoft and Alphabet (Google). Frasse, a product manager covering thematic suite of ETFs, including $SMH and $SMHX, makes the case that AI is more akin to the industrial revolution than it is to the internet. 

The trio discuss why and how the VanEck Semiconductor ETF ($SMH) has outperformed a competitor (letting the winners win), and the newer VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF ($SMHX) which gives exposure to fabless semi companies that are powering the AI revolution.

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There’s no shortage of speculation about how AI will reshape the workforce, but one area where no speculation is needed is the investment industry. AI is already rapidly disrupting the way investment professionals conduct fundamental equity research and shifting the competitive landscape for fund managers and talent alike. In this interview with Brett Caughran, founder of buyside training academy Fundamental Edge, and David Plon, co-founder and CEO of AI powered investment research platform Portrait Analytics join OPM to discuss the areas of the investment process where AI can already make an impact, the pitfalls and weaknesses of AI in its current state, how this is changing the job description for both portfolio managers and analysts, and the surprising reality that the first movers of AI adoption

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Timestamps

00:00 Intro

01:25 The Rapid Pace of AI Advancements

07:15 How to Start Adding AI to Your Process

15:00 Thesis Monitoring and the Next Frontiers of AI Investment Research

18:45 Current Level of AI Adoption and First Movers in the Hedge Fund World

23:19 Importance of Clearly Defining Your Investment Process Before Adding AI

26:35 The Role of Specialty Investment Tools

29:49 Custom vs Off-The-Shelf Solutions

38:16 Thoughtful AI Prompting is Key

44:01 Biggest AI Pitfalls to Avoid

48:52 How Has AI Shifted the Competitive Landscape?

54:43 AI Investing Bootcamp

This episode of Monetary Matters is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHJack

Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): http://vaneck.com/SMHXJack

John Schindler, General Secretary of the Financial Stability Board (FSB), joins Monetary Matters to discuss the rise of non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI), sometimes referred to as “shadow banking.” There are signs that NBFI leverage is growing and NBFI data is not as transparent or available as in the traditional banking system, and these two forces may pose financial stability risks. Schindler shares the FSB’s recommendations for how to ameliorate these potential risks.

From the FSB: The Financial Stability Board (FSB) coordinates at the international level the work of national financial authorities and international standard-setting bodies in order to develop and promote the implementation of effective regulatory, supervisory and other financial sector policies. Its mandate is set out in the FSB Charter, which governs the policymaking and related activities of the FSB.

Reports and recommendations:

Final FSB Report on NBFI Leverage (web link):

https://www.fsb.org/2025/07/leverage-in-nonbank-financial-intermediation-final-report/

Final FSB Report on NBFI Leverage (pdf): https://www.fsb.org/uploads/P090725-1.pdf

Scihndler’s Eurofi speech: https://www.fsb.org/2024/09/building-bridges-the-case-for-better-data-and-coordination-for-the-non-bank-sector/

Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation 2024: https://www.fsb.org/2024/12/global-monitoring-report-on-non-bank-financial-intermediation-2024/

2021 Report on Money Market Resilience: https://www.fsb.org/2021/10/policy-proposals-to-enhance-money-market-fund-resilience-final-report/

Revised Policy Recommendations to Address Structural Vulnerabilities from Liquidity Mismatch in Open-Ended Funds: https://www.fsb.org/2023/12/revised-policy-recommendations-to-address-structural-vulnerabilities-from-liquidity-mismatch-in-open-ended-funds/

Liquidity Preparedness for Margin and Collateral Calls: Final report: “https://www.fsb.org/2024/12/liquidity-preparedness-for-margin-and-collateral-calls-final-report/”

“High-level Recommendations for the Regulation, Supervision and Oversight of Global Stablecoin Arrangements: Final report”: https://www.fsb.org/2023/07/high-level-recommendations-for-the-regulation-supervision-and-oversight-of-global-stablecoin-arrangements-final-report/

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This episode is brought to you by Fundamental Edge, the leaders in buyside analyst training. Reserve your spot in their new AI Academy: https://www.fundamentedge.com/ai-academy

In the online community of FinTwit it is extremely common for hedge funders to have anonymous profiles because of strict regulations, but not all these anonymous profiles are made equal. @hfreflection is one of the most insightful anonymous members of the FinTwit community, especially when it comes to the business and industry of hedge funds. In this interview (while maintaining anonymity) HF reveals key aspects of his path to success and shares the insights he picked up on his journey from analyst to eventually launching his own firm after a long stint at a multi-billion dollar long/short equity manager. He touches on the hard decisions people face at different stages, whether you are a young professional trying to break into the industry, a mid-career analyst trying to find the right seat, or a seasoned professional deciding whether staying put or launching your own fund is the right path forward.

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This episode of Monetary Matters is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHJack

Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): http://vaneck.com/SMHXJack

Bill Moreland of BankRegData joins Jack to share how many banks’ extensive use of loan modifications have caused reported delinquencies to appear lower than they might otherwise have been. While Moreland acknowledges that modifications play a vital role in securing repayment, he maintains that their popularity over the past 3 years indicates it is unusual and that some banks may be “manipulating the shit out of” the data. Moreland tells Jack about note-on-note financing - a practice wherein a bank sells a loan to a buyer and lends that buyer the funds to buy it - is further used to hide losses within bank balance sheets. Recorded on August 19, 2025.More info about BankRegData: https://www.bankregdata.com/main.asp

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This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by Fiscal.ai. Sign up for a 2-week free trial and get 15% off any paid tier at: http://fiscal.ai/mm

Jack Farley & Max Wiethe break down Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech that markets have interpreted as signaling rate cuts are coming in September, the Fed’s long-term reassessment of their policy framework for combatting inflation and maintaining full employment, and Chinese consumer lending fintech companies that Jack is bullish on.

Fed Statements on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy Updated August 2025: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/monetary-policy-strategy-tools-and-communications-statement-on-longer-run-goals-monetary-policy-strategy-2025.htm

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:34 Fiscal.ai Front Roll

00:53 Jerome Powell Signals Rate Cuts?

06:35 The Fed’s View of the Labor Market

07:41 Updating the Fed’s Policy Framework

11:35 Fiscal.ai Mid Roll

12:58 Lisa Cook, Politics at the Fed, & the Next Fed Chair

21:06 Bullish Outlook on Chinese Consumer FinTech Basket

40:40 Outro

Tor Svelland, CIO and Founder of Svelland Capital, has annualized over 18.5% net of fees since inception in 2017 in their strategy that trades a combination of commodity futures, commodity linked equities, freight derivatives, energy transition linked companies, and electricity producers. Svelland joins Other People’s Money to discuss why he believes new market participants and structural undersupply have made the current environment for commodities trading so exciting. He also discusses how he’s grown his business from personal capital to almost $1 billion in AUM with investors all over the globe.

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Timestamps

00:00 Intro

04:09 Trafigura & Goldman Sachs as Commodities Trading Talent Hubs

06:38 Launching Svelland Capital with Personal Capital

09:03 The First Major Hurdles: 3 Years & $100m in AUM

10:56 ESG and the Commodity Market Backdrop

15:59 Underinvestment & Undersupply in Shipping & Commodities

20:41 Trading Global Supply Chains Shifts

23:44 Trade Expression & Commodities Portfolio Construction

29:06 The Effects of New Commodity Market Participants

36:06 TTF Gas Markets & Price Spike Potential

39:38 Multiple PMs & The Benefits of Taking Risk

42:05 Thinking Internationally & Advice for Young Commodities Traders

45:56 International Investor Interest in Commodities

48:00 Managing AUM Growth & Capacity Constraints

This episode of Monetary Matters is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHJack

Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): http://vaneck.com/SMHXJack

Renowned trade historian Douglas Irwin joins Jack to compare the ongoing shifts in American trade policy to Smoot-Hawley tariff during the Great Depression and the McKinley-era tariffs of the late 19th century of which President Trump speaks so fondly. Irwin, the John French Professor of Economics at Dartmouth College, and author of “Clashing over Commerce” and “Trade Policy Disaster” among other titles, notes that most economic historians agree that the Smoot-Hawley tariff was not the primary cause of the Great Depression. Rather, while it probably exacerbated the global economic slowdown, trade barriers in a narrow sense served their respective countries' interest in limiting gold outflows. Professor Irwin argues that current tariffs (2% to ~15%) are a greater shock than Smoot-Hawley (38% to 42%), because of the higher rate of change and because U.S. trade as a percentage of GDP is higher now than it was in the 1930s. Jack lobs pro-protectionist arguments that Irwin strongly rejects. The two reflect on balance of payments, with Irwin noting that large capital inflows into the United States are a major cause of the large and persistent U.S. trade deficit. Recorded on August 7, 2025.

Douglas Irwin’s books discussed: “Trade Policy Disaster: Lessons from the 1930s”: https://direct.mit.edu/books/monograph/3374/Trade-Policy-DisasterLessons-from-the-1930s

“Clashing over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy”: https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/C/bo24475328.html

“Peddling Protectionism: Smoot-Hawley and the Great Depression”: https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691178066/peddling-protectionism?srsltid=AfmBOoqh-ZTEvY-wNf7wqitXQpkh-tfA7MEOyqxhKCoeHo7WbyUaJRB9

Douglas Irwin’s papers discussed:

“TARIFF INCIDENCE: EVIDENCE FROM U.S. SUGAR DUTIES, 1890-1930”: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w20635/w20635.pdf

“HIGHER TARIFFS, LOWER REVENUES? ANALYZING THE FISCAL ASPECTS OF THE "GREAT TARIFF DEBATE OF 1888"”: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w6239/w6239.pdf

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This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by Fiscal.ai. Sign up for a 2-week free trial and get 15% off any paid tier at: http://fiscal.ai/mm

Jack Farley & Max Wiethe break down recent economic data on inflation and the labor market, the parade of positive earnings reports sending markets higher, and how this is representative of an economic expansion that is benefiting Wall Street while Main Street is left behind.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:46 Financial Conditions Are Easy

01:48 Inflation Report (CPI)

04:02 Market Strength (Wall St.) vs Economic Weakness (Main St.)

10:13 Earnings Expectations: Priced for Perfection?

16:13 Fiscal AI

17:36 Are We in a Bubble?

22:12 AI CapEx Trends

25:42 AMZN and Earnings Season Losers

30:38 What’s Up Next Earnings

33:11 The New BLS and Labor Market Data

38:12 Market Complacency and Long-term Predictions

42:46 What’s in the Portfolio of “Super Investors”