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Tian Yang, CEO of Variant Perception, returns to Monetary Matters to share his thoughts on global imbalances that have been building in the monetary system for decades. He shares what his data-driven approach indicates about the U.S. Dollar, global equities, and more. He also explains the challenges he sees ahead for U.S. homebuilding companies. Recorded June 19, 2025.

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Jack Farley and Max Wiethe break down the market’s reaction to today’s Federal Reserve decision, the Summary of Economic Projections, and Jerome Powell’s press conference. They also discuss parallels between this market and late 2021, debate whether AI is a bubble, and the eternal question of when the next US recession will occur.

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Mike Green, Portfolio Manager and Chief Strategist at Simplify, joins Monetary Matters to discuss why the strength of the equity market and other technical factors are obfuscating weakness in the US consumer and broader indicators of economic weakness to the point that it could be masking a recession. Green also discusses his views on inflation, the bond market, and the current stage of the passive investing endgame that he believes is the main culprit driving equity markets higher and higher.

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Read Mike’s Substack here: https://www.yesigiveafig.com

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:46 US Consumer Mirage

08:59 The Impact of High Interest Rates

13:39 Labor Market Weakness Will Eventually Force the Fed to Cut

15:03 Current Stage of the Passive Endgame

25:25 Recession Timing

33:31 How Will Asset Values Fair in the Next Recession?

40:30 Bond Market &Inflation Views

46:38 Uber's Impact on Unemployment

52:03 Tariff Uncertainty & the Fed

54:04 Bonds, Housing, & Other Macro Trades

01:02:03 Bitcoin, Solana, & Other Closing Thoughts

Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX joins Monetary Matters to discuss why he believes changes to policy makers toolkit and to the structure of the economy mean recessions are “cancelled.” He also discusses why he believes Trump’s MAGA economic policies will be bad for corporate profit margins and his bullish outlook on oil and energy stocks.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

01:07 Recessions are Cancelled

08:23 The No Recession Feedback Loop

11:11 Impact of Tariffs

13:21 MAGA’s War on Corporate Profits

19:26 Corporate Tax Rates

21:56 Fiscal Balance of Payments Crisis

26:11 Outlook for Inflation, Growth, and Rates

36:07 Outlook for the Stock Market

40:51 US Multiples Compared to Rest of the World

45:18 Bullish View on Oil & Energy Sector

55:15 July Fed Predictions

Zach Levitt, CIO and Founder of Sixth Turn Capital and Opus One Asset Management joins Other People’s Money to discuss how he is standing up multi-manager platforms at just 25 years old by focusing on niche capacity constrained managers. Levitt discusses the benefits of combining uncorrelated capacity constrained strategies in a multi-manager platform, his unconventional path to founding a multi-manager platform, how mentorship has helped accelerate his growth, and how he goes about attracting talented investors to his platform.

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X https://x.com/opmpod

Timestamps

00:00 Intro

00:48 Skipping the Analyst Track and Founding a Hedge Fund at 25

07:14 Many Great Track Records Indicate Nefarious Information Was Traded On

09:42 What Does a Good Capacity Constrained Manager Look Like?

13:38 What Level of Correlation is "Uncorrelated"

18:20 What Level of Capacity is "Capacity Constrained"?

21:30 Mentorship Through Podcasts & Cold Outreach

26:13 Convincing Managers To Join Your Platform as a 25 Year Old

28:46 Investor Interest in SMAs vs Commingled Funds

35:25 Battling Startup Costs

39:06 Selling Talented Investors on Your Success Story

43:39 Risk Management and Cutting Portfolio Managers

47:38 Marketing "Hypothetical" Track Records

52:32 Next Stages of Growth

54:20 Assessing the Capacity Limits

57:17 Can PA Traders Become PMs?

Matthew Klein, founder of The Overshoot and UN/BALANCED and co-author of Trade Wars Are Class Wars with Michael Pettis joins Monetary Matters to discuss what factors really lead to major trade and capital flow imbalances between countries. He argues that factors like income inequality, domestic economic policy and decisions being made at the corporate level can have far more impact than country level trade policy. He also discusses why even though extreme trade and capital flow imbalances may be dangerous, implementing improper solutions can exacerbate the damage.

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Read Matthews Substack The Overshoot here: https://theovershoot.co/

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:52 Why Trade Wars Are Class Wars

12:13 Trade Surpluses vs Trade Deficits

18:51 Income Distribution Drives Capital Flows

28:28 China's Shifting Income Distribution

33:41 The Problem With China's Growing Trade and Current Account Surplus

41:51 Who is Winning in China?

44:04 How to Combat China's "Cheating on Trade"

49:25 Who Has the Upper Hand in Trade Negotiations?

54:05 Will Tariffs Drive Reshoring?

59:53 How Can the US Restore Balance of Trade?

01:08:29 Conclusions

This conversation was originally recorded for Julian Brigden’s research service, MacroCapture. Sign up for MacroCapture by MI2 Partners today with coupon codes MM10 (for annual) and MM10Q (for quarterly) to save 10% at:

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Julian Brigden of MI2 Partners and veteran macro trader Jonny Matthews of SuperMacro join Monetary Matters for a wide-ranging discussion of the forces that are contributing to a global weak market in sovereign bonds. Recorded May 28th and released for Julian’s MacroCapture clients on June 3rd.

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Val Zlatev, Portfolio Manager and Senior Partner at hard tech specialist hedge fund Analog Century Capital Management joins Other People’s Money to discuss what he thinks investors still fail to appreciate about the secular growth of AI and semiconductors. He also discusses why DeepSeek was so misunderstood, other aspects of the AI supply chain, the state of the analog chip cycle, running long/short and market neutral strategies and garnering interest from the large multi-manager platforms.

Learn More About Analog Century Capital Management: https://www.analogcm.com/

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Timestamps

00:00 Intro

01:15 What is Hard Tech?

02:41 The Evolution of the Hard Tech Sector From the 90s to Now

05:04 Investors Are Underweight Hard Tech

11:09 The Massive Impact of the End of Moore's Law

16:59 New Investment in Semiconductor Capacity

18:08 Why AI Should Be Compared to Cloud, Not Fiber

22:55 What Investors Got Wrong About DeepSeek

25:41 The US Government's Impact on AI & Chips

33:04 The Chinese Government’s Involvement in AI & Chips

35:13 Dominant Players in Chinese Semiconductor Market

39:12 The AI Supply Chain Beyond Semiconductors

43:53 Analog Semiconductors & Power Management

49:55 Winners, Losers, and Fakers in AI

57:03 Research Process for Hard Tech

01:01:25 Dispersion in Hard Tech Returns

01:03:31 Trading and Portfolio Construction at Analog Century

01:08:13 Market Neutral & Garnering Interest From Multi-Manager Platforms

01:12:20 Market Neutral vs Long/Short Investors

01:14:51 The Value of Partners and Team Continuity

01:16:42 Conclusion

To learn more about the VanEck Merk Gold ETF (OUNZ): https://www.vaneck.com/OUNZJack/overview/

To view the prospectus: https://www.vaneck.com/OUNZProspectus

Gerard Minack of Minack Advisors joins Monetary Matters to discuss why even though other developed nations like Japan may have higher debt to GDP ratios, factors like net debt, monetized debt, and the overall size of US debt make this comparison flawed. He argues these factors make the current trajectory of US debt levels completely unsustainable and that the bond vigilantes will step in long before even more extreme levels are reached. He also discussed the extreme valuation gap for US assets compared to the rest of the world, why he thinks that gap will narrow, Mag 7 dominance and AI, and why he thinks Japan, not China, is the large Asian market set to outperform.

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You can find Gerard Minack on Bloomberg

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:24 Van Eck OUNZ

01:00 Interest Rate & Bond Market Views

09:13 Comparing US Debt Levels to Japan

12:21 Comparing Soft & Hard Data

16:19 Two Growth Scenarios Affecting Rates This Year

23:30 Van Eck OUNZ

24:05 The New World of Higher Rates

33:12 How Higher Rates Impact Stocks

43:01 The AI Trade and US Valuations

49:23 The US Valuation Gap vs The Rest of the World

53:12 Mag 7 Dominance

01:03:15 Bearish on Chinese Stocks and Bullish on Japan

01:09:23 Japan's Macro Backdrop

01:16:19 The Neutral Rate & Demographics

01:21:22 No Recessions in Australia

01:26:16 Australian Outlook

Marko Papic, Chief Strategist at BCA Research, joins Monetary Matters to argue that while tariffs may be the catalyst that shifts global appetites for US assets, it will be the necessary shift to fiscal hawkishness that will drive the end of “American Exceptionalism” and outperformance of US markets. Papic also discusses his views on as shift towards a multipolar world and why he views the dual polar world with US and China as competing global hegemons as the least likely outcome when compared with a multipolar reality or the revitalization of the American Empire.

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Timestamps:

01:00 Why TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) is Wrong

08:29 Recession Risks vs Stock Market Risks

12:21 Comparing Soft & Hard Data

15:12 Timeline for Trade Policy Certainty

20:53 Tariffs as a Catalyst for Domestic Economic Improvements Globally

26:47 The US Fiscal Facade

28:28 China Outlook

30:14 The Big Beautiful Bill & US Fiscal Deficit

41:02 DOGE’s Political Signal Value

48:09 US Defense Spending

51:13 Russia & Ukraine War

56:07 Foreign Policy in a Multipolar World

01:03:01 Middle East Stability