Excess Returns

By Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau, partners at Validea Capital Management. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics, including factor... more

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The podcast currently has 310 episodes available.

Excess Returns episodes:

January 02, 2025 The One Factor That Explains the Struggles of Value, International and Small-Cap Stocks | Kai Wu
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Kai Wu, founder of Sparkline Capital, for a fascinating discussion about intangible value investing and its global applications. Kai shares his expertise on using machine learning and natural language processing to identify companies rich in intellectual property, brand equity, human capital, and network effects.
We explore why U.S. firms have historically outperformed many international counterparts, with Kai explaining how the gap in intangible asset investment has been a crucial factor.
We discuss:
How traditional value metrics miss important aspects of modern company value
The four pillars of intangible value: IP, brand equity, human capital, and network effects
Why international markets have lagged the U.S. and how intangible value can help close this gap
The role of AI and machine learning in modern investment analysis
A surprising analysis of global patent leadership
This episode offers valuable insights for investors interested in both value investing and international diversification. Whether you're a quantitative investor or just interested in understanding how modern companies create value, you'll find plenty to think about in this discussion.
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1h 1min
December 30, 2024 Do You Really Need International Diversification? 10 Top Investors Debate
In this episode, we explore one of investing's most debated topics: international diversification. Through clips from 10 different investing experts, we examine whether U.S. investors truly need international exposure in their portfolios.
Key topics include:
What actually constitutes "international exposure" in today's interconnected markets
Why U.S. stocks have dominated for so long and whether this trend can continue
The role of currency exposure in international investing
How passive investing flows affect international markets
Different perspectives on optimal international allocation strategies
Featuring insights from renowned investors and experts including Corey Hoffstein, Meb Faber, Dan Rasmussen, Larry Swedroe, Cullen Roche, Dan Villalon, Rick Ferri, Jason Buck, Mike Green, and Andy Constan, this episode offers a nuanced look at the complexities of global investing and helps viewers understand the various approaches to international diversification.
Whether you're wondering if you should invest internationally or questioning your current allocation, this discussion provides valuable perspectives to help inform your investment decisions.

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57min
December 27, 2024 Redefining Value Investing in a Magnificent Seven Dominated World | Jacob Pozharny
In this episode of Excess Returns, hosts Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau sit down with Jacob Pozharny, partner at Bridgeway Capital Management, to explore the increasingly important role of intangible assets in modern investing.
Jacob breaks down what intangible assets are - from intellectual property and proprietary algorithms to brand value and customer relationships - and explains how these harder-to-measure assets are changing traditional investment approaches. He discusses Bridgeway's pioneering research on "intangible intensity" and how it affects their investment strategy, particularly for high vs. low intangible companies.
Key topics covered:
How intangible assets complicate traditional valuation metrics
Why sentiment analysis matters more for high-intangible companies
The implications of AI for intangible asset valuation
Bridgeway's approach to long-short investing
International investing opportunities and market efficiency
The importance of understanding model assumptions and staying humble as an investor
Whether you're interested in quantitative investing, understanding modern valuation frameworks, or keeping up with evolving market dynamics, this conversation offers valuable insights into how one of the industry's leading firms approaches these challenges.
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55min
December 19, 2024 Inside the Secretive World of Pod Shops | Bob Elliott
In this episode of Excess Returns, hosts Justin and Matt sit down with Bob Elliott, founder of Unlimited Funds, to explore the fascinating world of multi-strategy hedge funds, also known as "pod shops." Bob breaks down how these complex investment vehicles work, discussing their unique structure where multiple portfolio managers operate independently while sharing infrastructure and risk management resources.
The conversation covers crucial topics including:
How pod shops attract and compensate top trading talent
The economics and fee structures of modern hedge funds
Risk management challenges when running multiple strategies
The evolution from traditional hedge funds to pod shop models
The impact of growing assets under management on performance
The emergence of ETFs as alternatives to hedge fund strategies
Drawing from his extensive experience in the hedge fund industry, Bob provides unique insights into why pod shops have captured headlines despite representing only a fraction of the overall hedge fund industry. He also discusses his current work at Unlimited Funds, where he's working to make hedge fund strategies more accessible through ETF structures.
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58min
December 12, 2024 Dispelling Big Investing Myths | Dan Rasmussen
In this episode of Excess Returns, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau sit down with Dan Rasmussen from Verdad Advisers to discuss his firm's top research pieces from the past year.
They explore several fascinating market insights, including:
Why high bond yields don't necessarily translate to high returns
The dramatic outperformance of U.S. markets post-financial crisis and the potential opportunity in cheaper international stocks
How private equity return dispersion may be more about portfolio construction than manager skill
The promising changes happening in Japanese corporate governance
Britain's market valuation in the wake of Brexit
Dan also announces his upcoming book "The Humble Investor" which challenges common assumptions about predictability in markets. Throughout the conversation, he offers thought-provoking perspectives on market efficiency, the limitations of forecasting, and why humility is crucial for investment success.
Whether you're an institutional investor or individual market participant, this discussion provides valuable insights into contrarian investment opportunities and challenges prevailing market narratives with data-driven analysis.
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56min
December 05, 2024 Why Most Investors Won't Buy the Best Diversifier | Andrew Beer on Managed Futures
In this episode of Excess Returns, hosts Justin and Jack sit down with Andrew Beer of Dynamic Beta Investments to explore the fascinating world of managed futures and alternative investment strategies. Andrew, who manages over a billion dollars in assets, shares valuable insights on why managed futures remain underutilized despite their proven benefits for portfolio diversification.
The conversation dives deep into several key topics:
How to effectively communicate complex investment strategies to clients
Why the narrative around managed futures is just as important as their performance
The challenges of getting investors to adopt alternative strategies despite their clear statistical benefits
How Dynamic Beta replicates hedge fund strategies in a cost-effective ETF wrapper
The importance of simplicity in investment strategies and why complexity isn't always better
Andrew also discusses the evolution of the ETF landscape, the role of artificial intelligence in investment management, and why maintaining a steady, unchanging strategy has been crucial to his firm's success. Whether you're an investment professional or individual investor, this discussion offers valuable perspectives on portfolio diversification and the future of alternative investments.
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1h 8min
December 02, 2024 What the Rise of Passive Investing Means for Your Portfolio | Special Guest: Dave Nadig
In this episode, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler dive deep into one of the most debated topics in modern finance with special guest Dave Nadig. This episode explores how passive investing has transformed markets, featuring insights from leading experts including Mike Green, Aswath Damodaran, Rick Ferri, Rob Arnott, and Cliff Asness.
Key discussions:
Why active investing's poor performance led to passive's rise
How index fund flows might affect market dynamics
The difference between stocks in and out of major indices
Whether passive investing could potentially destabilize markets
What this means for individual investors
Whether you're a market professional or retail investor, this conversation offers crucial insights into how passive investing is reshaping financial markets and what it means for your portfolio.
Featured Guests' Clips:
Aswath Damodaran on active management's track record
Mike Green on passive investing mechanics
Rick Ferri with the counterargument
Rob Arnott on index inclusion effects
Cem Karsan on why active may rise again
Cliff Asness offering a balanced perspective
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1h 5min
November 27, 2024 The Most Misunderstood Bull Market Ever | Jim Paulsen
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with veteran investment strategist Jim Paulsen to discuss the current market landscape and economic outlook. Paulsen, author of Paulson Perspectives on Substack, shares unique insights on why traditional recession indicators have failed, how Main Street sentiment impacts markets, and why he remains optimistic despite widespread pessimism.
Key topics include:
Why the Fed's recent approach differs from historical patterns
The changing nature of market valuations
The impact of technology on profit productivity
Why consumer confidence remains surprisingly low
The future of long-term bond yields
Drawing from over 40 years of market experience, Paulsen offers a data-driven yet practical perspective on where markets may be heading and why many conventional indicators may need updating for today's economy.
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1h 6min
November 20, 2024 Bigger Extremes, Better Returns | Cliff Asness on the "Less Efficient Market Hypothesis"
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with AQR founder Cliff Asness for a fascinating discussion about market efficiency, behavioral finance, and the future of quantitative investing. In this wide-ranging conversation, we explore Cliff's recent paper "The Less Efficient Market Hypothesis" and discuss why markets might actually be becoming less efficient over time, despite advances in technology – a counterintuitive but compelling argument.
We dig into how social media and constant connectivity might be making markets more prone to extremes, the real impact of passive investing, and why periods of market irrationality might last longer than ever before. Cliff shares his perspective on the current market concentration in the Magnificent Seven stocks and offers insights on high-volatility alternatives from his latest paper.
The conversation also covers the role of intuition in factor investing, inflation's impact on markets, and ends with Cliff's essential advice for the average investor. Throughout the discussion, Cliff brings his characteristic mix of academic rigor and practical wisdom, peppered with his unique brand of humor.
Whether you're a quant enthusiast, professional investor, or just interested in understanding today's markets better, this conversation offers valuable insights from one of the industry's most influential voices.
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November 14, 2024 Making Sense of Markets in a Post Election World | Grant Williams and Ben Hunt
In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler is joined by Ben Hunt and Grant Williams for a candid discussion of the 2024 post-election landscape and its implications for markets. The guests explore how trust, or lack thereof, shapes both political and market narratives, examining the transformation of capital markets into what they describe as a "political utility" where "number go up" has become the prevailing faith.
Key topics include:
Analysis of shifting market dynamics and investment philosophies
The challenges of maintaining long-term perspective in a speculation-driven environment
How inflation and institutional trust impact market behavior
The distinction between investment and speculation in modern markets
Practical considerations for navigating uncertain economic conditions
This wide-ranging conversation offers valuable insights for investors trying to understand the intersection of politics, markets, and human behavior in today's complex financial landscape.
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The podcast currently has 310 episodes available.

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