Excess Returns

Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity explains how he reads a stock market correction by looking at what has changed in earnings, interest rates and the price investors will pay for future growth. A selloff driven by higher rates can look much like one driven by fears of slower growth on a stock chart. The difference matters when you’re counting on bonds to cushion the decline.

Jurrien joins Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand to put the AI investment boom in that historical context. The companies building data centers once had enough cash left over to buy back large amounts of their own stock. Now much of that cash goes back into the business. He explains why a slower buildout could help some of the biggest spenders, and how a semiconductor stock can look cheap just as its earnings are peaking.

They also look beneath the S&P 500, where a handful of large companies can pull the index lower even as most stocks remain in uptrends. Jurrien discusses what higher bond yields offer a long-term investor, why he considers gold and other diversifiers alongside stocks and bonds, and how rebalancing can turn a market decline into an opportunity to buy when others need to sell.

Topics covered:

- What CoreWeave’s bonds signaled about the cost of financing AI infrastructure

- Why semiconductor earnings and price-to-earnings ratios can move in opposite directions

- How Treasury yields affect the price investors will pay for stocks

- What the 1994 correction reveals about strong earnings in a rising-rate environment

- How Jurrien Timmer’s investment clock pairs earnings growth with financial conditions

- Why bonds can provide income even when their value as a hedge changes

- How gold, commodities and other diversifiers fit into a 60/20/20 portfolio

- How the shift from buybacks to capital spending changes the economics of owning the Magnificent Seven

- What market breadth and long-term valuations suggest about opportunities beyond the largest U.S. stocks

Chapters:

00:00 The AI buildout meets the limits of financing

07:44 Semiconductor cycles and peak earnings

11:57 The Fed model and the competition between stocks and bonds

19:16 Growth scares, rate scares and inflation risk

24:01 The investment clock and the stock market’s influence on growth

29:00 Bond income and the case for a 60/20/20 portfolio

34:27 Real yields, fiscal risk and Fed policy

42:57 What comparisons with 1994 and 1999 can tell us

47:23 From share buybacks to AI capital spending

55:58 Rebalancing when other investors are selling

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Corey Hoffstein and Adam Butler explore why diversification is hard to stick with and how return stacking changes what investors can hold alongside stocks and bonds. When stocks keep climbing, a strategy that trails them for years can feel like a mistake. When inflation pushes stocks and bonds down together, the reason for owning something different gets easier to see.

Drawing on their Return Stacked symposium, the two join Matt Zeigler to discuss which risks are worth adding to a portfolio. Corey explains why even a strategy with little connection to the stock market can lose money on the day stocks fall. Adam revisits 2008, when some hedge funds suspended withdrawals just as investors needed cash to rebalance.

They use managed futures to show how return stacking works. An investor can keep the stock and bond exposure of a 60/40 portfolio and use futures to add another strategy. That introduces leverage and makes two questions especially important. What will the portfolio need to hold as collateral, and can the investor stay with the strategy through a long drawdown?

Topics covered:

- What Corey Hoffstein took from Cliff Asness’s early experience running AQR

- Why an inflation shock can hurt stocks and bonds at the same time

- How Adam Butler adds managed futures while keeping a portfolio’s stock and bond exposure

- Why the same leverage can produce very different outcomes depending on the strategy added

- The difference between low correlation and protection during a stock market crash

- What went wrong when institutions paired liquid futures with illiquid hedge funds in 2008

- How holding both exposures in one fund changes collateral management and rebalancing

- Why managed futures can fit alongside stocks, bonds or gold

- How long a diversifier can disappoint before an investor gives up on it

Return Stacked research

https://www.returnstacked.com/

Return Stacked ETFs

https://www.returnstackedetfs.com/

Seven Thoughts on Running Big Money for the Long-Term | Cliff Asness

https://www.integrityia.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Seven-Thoughts-on-Running-Big-Money-For-the-Long-Term-2009.pdf

Corey Hoffstein’s Flirting with Models podcast

https://www.flirtingwithmodels.com/episodes

Corey Hoffstein on X

https://x.com/choffstein

Adam Butler on X

https://x.com/gestaltu

Return Stacked Portfolio Solutions on LinkedIn

https://www.linkedin.com/company/return-stacked-portfolio-solutions

Chapters:

00:00 Corey Hoffstein on Cliff Asness and investing for the long run

07:15 Adam Butler on AQR’s early years

12:58 When inflation hurts both sides of a 60/40 portfolio

17:21 How return stacking preserves stock and bond exposure

23:02 Choosing which risks to add with leverage

29:15 Why investors give up on diversifiers during drawdowns

33:27 Portable alpha and the liquidity failures of 2008

38:13 How a single fund manages collateral across both exposures

43:26 What decades of managed futures returns can tell us

50:37 Adam Butler on market timing and the case for spreading risk

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Chris Mayer and Robert Hagstrom explain how they decide whether a falling stock price has exposed a mistake or given them a chance to buy a business they already know well.

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On 100 Year Thinkers, Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski ask both investors to put that judgment to work during a Nasdaq selloff. Robert starts with an unlikely pair: Nvidia and Walmart. What assumptions about growth and returns on capital would justify paying a higher earnings multiple for the retailer? Chris starts with free cash flow per share. He explains what he wants to know about a business before its stock drops 30% and he has to decide whether to buy more, hold on or sell.

They give their winners the same scrutiny. Chris admits that a run of strong quarters can tempt him to spend all his research time on the companies that are struggling. Robert borrows a habit from Sherlock Holmes: look for the evidence that could overturn your favorite explanation. The conversation closes with a question for AI executives trying to win over a town that would host a data center. What does the community get in return for the power and water the facility will use?

Topics covered:

- Robert Hagstrom on why volatility rises when different investors start making the same trade

- What the valuations of Nvidia and Walmart imply about their future earnings

- Chris Mayer on free cash flow per share and Ben Graham’s voting machine and weighing machine

- What readers of The Warren Buffett Way and 100 Baggers sometimes miss about their authors

- How Robert Hagstrom uses detective work to test an investment thesis

- Why Chris Mayer revisits companies that keep delivering strong results

- What a concentrated portfolio asks of an investor and where indexing fits

- How a watchlist helps both investors put a sharp price decline in context

- When share buybacks make sense and what AI companies need to explain to local residents

Robert Hagstrom’s research at EquityCompass

https://www.equitycompass.com/author/robert

Chris Mayer’s books at Woodlock House Family Capital

https://www.woodlockhousefamilycapital.com/portfolio

Chris Mayer on X

https://x.com/chriswmayer

Chapters:

00:00 What a Nasdaq selloff tells long-term investors

12:23 Ben Graham’s weighing machine and free cash flow per share

17:58 Who sets the example for patient investors today?

22:07 What readers miss about Robert Hagstrom and Chris Mayer

26:07 Sherlock Holmes and the evidence against an investment thesis

32:52 Studying winners as skeptically as mistakes

39:05 The case for picking businesses in an indexed market

44:36 Building a shopping list before prices fall

49:12 When a falling price earns a closer look

53:37 What shareholders need to hear from CEOs

1:02:07 Why data centers are a hard sell for their neighbors

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Mike Hunstad, president of Northern Trust Asset Management, estimates that AI accounts for more than half the risk in the S&P 500. For an investor who sees real promise in AI, that poses a practical question. How much of the portfolio should depend on being right about it?

Hunstad joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to explain where he expects the payoff from AI to show up first. A company that uses AI to do the same work at a lower cost could see its margins rise well before the gains show up in GDP. He also explains how the stock market can move the economy in the other direction. If wealthy households have been spending some of their stock gains, a 20% equity decline could change what they buy.

The conversation turns to what investors actually own. Hunstad uses the changing makeup of the Russell 1000 Value Index to show how a value fund can carry more technology exposure than its name suggests. He also shares the question he would ask an active manager after hearing their best stock picks. Which stocks did you underweight to pay for those bets, and do you have just as much conviction in those decisions?

Topics covered:

- What Treasury yields tell Mike Hunstad about inflation and the Fed’s choices

- Why profit margins are his first test of whether AI spending is paying off

- How the spending habits of wealthy households can turn a stock market decline into an economic slowdown

- Where quality, value and low-volatility stocks fit in a portfolio with a large AI exposure

- How much stock actually becomes available to investors when a large private company goes public

- Why price-to-book can miss value in businesses built on intangible assets

- How tracking a company’s suppliers, customers and peers changes the way investors measure momentum

- When a factor looks cheap and why timing a shift into it is difficult

- How the stocks a manager leaves out can overwhelm the gains from the ones they pick

Chapters:

00:00 What stock prices and economic headlines are saying

06:45 The Fed, interest rates and the 10-year Treasury yield

11:11 AI productivity and the case for a positive supply shock

18:31 How a stock market decline could reach consumer spending

22:51 AI capital spending and the lessons of the dot-com era

28:54 Who captures the gains from AI, and how to measure them

34:18 Mega-IPOs and how much stock comes to market

38:36 What private markets add to a public equity portfolio

44:11 Measuring value and momentum through investor behavior

49:10 Can investors time their factor exposures?

57:16 The portfolio risk in stocks you leave out

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Peter Boockvar of OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners explains how AI demand can keep growing while the companies building data centers struggle to earn a return. CoreWeave has committed to years of lease payments. What happens if the price it can charge customers for computing power falls before those leases run out?

The author of The Boock Report joins Matt Zeigler to trace who bears that risk. A lender, a chipmaker and an electrician building a data center all depend on the same project, but a slowdown reaches each of them differently. Boockvar draws on the history of the memory chip business to explain why a stock can look cheapest just as its earnings are peaking.

They also look at the economy beyond AI. Boockvar compares what concert venues and hotel operators are hearing from customers, explains why reopening the Strait of Hormuz would still leave oil inventories to rebuild, and shares where he sees value in overseas stocks, healthcare and consumer staples.

Topics covered:

- How much hiring a data center supports during construction and after it opens

- Why new memory chip supply matters to Micron shareholders even if demand keeps rising

- How CoreWeave’s lease commitments and borrowing costs compare with IREN’s approach

- Who could keep an existing data center running in a restructuring, and who loses orders if the next one never gets built

- Why Peter Boockvar sees the Fed making smaller policy adjustments and watches the cost of financing AI projects

- What sold-out concerts, travel bookings and hiring by industry reveal about the consumer

- How depleted oil inventories could sustain demand for crude after shipping resumes

- Where Peter Boockvar finds overlooked businesses outside the U.S. and in healthcare and consumer staples

- What gold prices mean for miners’ margins and why refinancing matters for private credit

Chapters:

00:00 How much of the economy depends on the AI buildout?

06:25 The workers who build data centers and the jobs that last

11:14 Micron and the trap of buying peak earnings

18:23 Who bears the losses if an AI infrastructure company defaults?

23:19 How AI financing costs enter the Fed’s rate debate

29:05 What concerts, hotels and hiring tell us about the consumer

37:03 Oil supply and the long job of rebuilding inventories

44:44 Looking overseas for overlooked stocks

49:42 The case for consumer staples and healthcare

56:52 Rush at Madison Square Garden and Peter Boockvar’s first concert

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Brent Kochuba, Ben Hunt, Aahan Menon and Eric Pachman join Matt Zeigler and Jack Forehand on November’s Last Call to make sense of the post-election selloff and the pressures facing businesses and households.

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Brent Kochuba explains why the weakest AI cloud stocks caught his eye even while the Nasdaq was rallying. Ben Hunt argues the midterms changed what investors could take for granted about presidential power, with governors gaining a bigger say in where data centers get built.

Aahan Menon traces how a decline in AI shares could reach the dinner table as households that grew wealthier on paper rethink their spending. Eric Pachman follows a different cost all the way to the grocery aisle. When diesel gets more expensive, a grocer has to decide how much of the freight bill to absorb and how much to pass on to shoppers.

Topics covered:

- Why Brent Kochuba watched the weakest AI cloud stocks for confirmation of the rally

- How negative dealer gamma can amplify selling and why November options expiration matters

- What Ben Hunt means by an election making the limits of presidential power “common knowledge”

- Why governors, electricity bills and local jobs matter to the next data center permit

- Why Aahan Menon sees little immediate change in federal spending after the midterms

- How stock gains support consumer spending and data center investment feeds corporate profits

- How Eric Pachman uses the Producer Price Index to see how many industries face unusual cost increases

- Who borrowed oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and what it will take to return those barrels

Guest research and links:

Brent Kochuba | SpotGamma

https://spotgamma.com/

SpotGamma on X

https://x.com/spotgamma

Ben Hunt | Perscient

https://www.perscient.com/

Epsilon Theory on X

https://x.com/EpsilonTheory

Aahan Menon | Prometheus Research

https://www.prometheus-macro.com/

Aahan Menon on X

https://x.com/AahanPrometheus

Eric Pachman | Data 4 The People

https://www.data4thepeople.com/

How the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Works in 2026

https://www.data4thepeople.com/p/spr-exchange

Chapters:

00:00 A post-election rally gives way to a Nasdaq selloff

05:06 Brent Kochuba on unwinding election hedges

12:05 The AI cloud stocks that missed the bounce

16:38 Negative gamma and what could break the selling cycle

26:28 Ben Hunt on what the election made common knowledge

37:31 Aahan Menon on fiscal policy and the AI wealth effect

43:03 What a slowdown in data center spending would mean for profits

48:35 Eric Pachman on price pressure across industries

57:31 Tanker traffic, freight costs and emergency oil loans

1:05:10 Who gets a say when a data center comes to town?

1:10:48 Political compromise and a Philadelphia sports story

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Mike Green explains how passive investing is reshaping stock prices, market concentration, and the way investors build portfolios. His argument: understanding which funds receive money—and how they allocate it—is increasingly essential to understanding the stocks those funds own.

The founder of Tier1 Alpha Asset Management joins Matt Zeigler and Justin Carbonneau to connect retirement contributions, target-date funds, and index construction to the buying pressure behind the market's largest companies. He explains why he believes giant IPOs benefit from index mechanics, why liquidity does not keep pace with market capitalization, and how fund flows may help explain the behavior of value, size, and momentum.

Green also walks through the investment framework he is building at Tier1: tracking thousands of funds, estimating their impact on individual securities, and making small portfolio tilts to account for those flows. The conversation explores what could interrupt retirement-driven buying, where fundamental analysis still matters, and how his planned strategies incorporate managed futures for diversification.

Topics covered:

- Why Mike Green thinks fund selection is increasingly shaping security prices

- Why low-float index inclusions can create demand for giant IPOs

- Why giant IPOs and smaller offerings can face very different sources of demand

- Retirement contributions, target-date allocations, and the employment catalyst that could change flows

- How passive flows may help explain value, size, and momentum-factor behavior

- Why liquidity does not grow in proportion to market capitalization

- Tier1's approach to tracking fund flows and making small portfolio tilts

- Where discounted cash flow analysis fits in a market shaped by mechanical buying

- Tracking error, managed futures, and Tier1's planned portfolio strategies

- What employment trends could mean for the retirement contributions supporting passive flows

Chapters:

00:00 Mike Green on the election and giant IPOs

05:44 IPO demand, passive buying, and weakening employment

11:18 Valuation in a market shaped by flows

16:46 Passive flows, value, and momentum

21:27 Tracking fund flows and building portfolio tilts

26:31 Inflation, energy bottlenecks, and pricing power

30:50 AI investment returns and the fiber-optic analogy

35:33 Fed policy, market rules, and Tier1's planned strategies

43:18 The K-shaped economy, AI jobs, and gig work

48:00 Political risks, optimism, and human agency

53:32 Closing thoughts and where to follow Mike Green

Tier1 Alpha Asset Management

https://www.t1acapital.com/

Mike Green on X

https://x.com/profplum99

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Bob Elliott and Aahan Menon examine how stock-market wealth is helping consumers spend faster than their paychecks grow—and what that means for corporate profits if stocks stop rising.

Elliott, co-founder of Unlimited, and Menon, founder of Prometheus Research, join Matt Zeigler to connect household spending, AI investment, and the earnings expectations built into markets. They discuss where their growth outlooks differ, why persistent inflation complicates the Fed's choices, and how bonds can look attractive against stocks while still looking unattractive against cash.

The conversation also explores whether AI is producing the economy-wide gains needed to justify its investment boom, how forward spending commitments could reverse, and why both guests distinguish those risks from a repeat of the 2008 credit crisis.

Topics covered:

- What the midterm election could change for fiscal policy and data-center construction

- Oil and AI as the competing forces behind inflation and growth expectations

- Bob Elliott's distinction between peak growth and peak pricing of growth

- How household wealth and drawing down savings support consumer spending

- Aahan Menon on wages, workforce participation, immigration, and demographics

- Why both guests think central banks are reluctant to deliver tighter policy

- Bonds versus stocks, bonds versus cash, and Aahan Menon's inflation-nowcast rule

- Bob Elliott's test for AI: accelerating productivity and revenue beyond the technology sector

- How business investment and household spending feed corporate profits

- Why AI commitments could weaken spending and earnings without a systemic credit crisis

Chapters:

00:00 Bob Elliott and Aahan Menon on the election

04:25 Oil, AI, and the market's growth expectations

09:25 Peak growth pricing and the consumer spending gap

15:45 Household wealth, wages, and the labor market

20:08 The Fed's response to persistent inflation

24:12 Bonds versus stocks and bonds versus cash

30:28 Inflation nowcasts and the test for AI productivity

37:05 AI revenue expectations and the sources of profits

43:38 Credit risks and AI's forward spending commitments

50:38 Where Bob Elliott and Aahan Menon disagree

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital explains why slowing global liquidity could challenge stocks even as AI earnings remain strong. His concern is a growing competition for funding: money is flowing into real-world investment just as a huge wave of existing debt needs refinancing.

With Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau, Howell walks through his liquidity cycle, the role of collateral and repo markets, and why he believes government bonds deserve another look. He also discusses the difference between declining liquidity growth and an outright contraction, the risks of financing the AI buildout, and how China's debt problems could shape the longer-term outlook for gold.

Topics covered:

- How Michael Howell measures global liquidity as the financial system's capacity to provide funding

- Why a strong real economy can compete with financial markets for money

- The four phases of the liquidity cycle and the shift from speculation toward turbulence

- Why bank reserves, Treasury issuance, and collateral volatility matter beyond the Fed's policy rate

- How AI earnings have given technology stocks an unusual second wind late in the cycle

- The debt maturity wall and why Michael Howell watches debt relative to liquidity

- How refinancing stress can spread through interconnected balance sheets

- The case for government bonds as liquidity tightens and economic growth slows

- Why Michael Howell distinguishes US Treasury yields from Europe's fiscal pressures

- China's debt burden, potential monetary expansion, and the implications for gold and Bitcoin

Chapters:

00:00 Michael Howell on slowing global liquidity

04:29 Why Main Street competes with Wall Street for funding

09:12 The four phases of the liquidity cycle

14:03 Repo markets, collateral, and the role of central banks

18:15 Private credit creation and Fed-Treasury coordination

22:25 Asset allocation through the liquidity cycle

29:28 AI cyclicality and comparisons with past booms

33:35 The debt maturity wall and refinancing demands

41:23 Debt-to-liquidity stress and financial system fragility

46:04 Refinancing risks and Europe's fiscal pressures

50:19 Treasury yields, nominal growth, and China's economy

55:43 The outlook for 2027, China's debt, and gold

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

John Davi of Astoria Investment Management explains how he builds diversified portfolios in a tech dominated market. With Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau, Davi walks through an alternative approach. He also explains why he sees echoes of the 1970s in today's inflation, what he watches in credit markets for signs of stress in the AI buildout, and where real assets fit alongside stocks and bonds.

Topics covered:

- Why John Davi trimmed Astoria's equity overweight without trying to call a market top

- What the 10-year Treasury yield looks like relative to nominal economic growth

- How SPY and QQQ overlap, and what a conventional equal-weight index changes besides stock weights

- The question facing the Magnificent Seven: can earnings grow fast enough to justify AI spending?

- Where John Davi agrees with the passive investing feedback-loop argument and where it falls short

- What goes in the 20% when a 60/40 portfolio becomes 50% stocks, 30% bonds, and 20% diversifiers

- Why John Davi favors AI adopters and watches credit default swaps on the companies funding the buildout

- How Astoria screens for quality at a reasonable price using profitability, dividends, and valuation

- What trading floors taught John Davi about hedging before a drawdown

Chapters:

00:00 John Davi on earnings, rates, and trimming equity risk

05:05 Is the 10-year Treasury yield high relative to growth?

10:16 Seven stocks and the changing risk inside the S&P 500

14:33 Diversifying around SPY and QQQ

20:02 Equal stock weights without a big tech underweight

24:46 Passive flows, prices, and buying the dip

30:04 Higher rates, the 60/40 portfolio, and real assets

37:08 From AI builders to companies using AI

42:40 Credit spreads and cracks in the AI trade

47:34 Adding a quality screen to growth stocks

55:12 Why John Davi hedges and resists chasing past winners

Research discussed:

Rates Hit Multi-Decade Highs. Will Growth and Earnings Keep the Rally Going?

https://www.astoriaim.com/single-post/rates-hit-multi-decade-highs-will-growth-and-earnings-keep-the-rally-going

Astoria Investment Management

https://www.astoriaim.com/

Astoria on X

https://x.com/AstoriaAdvisors

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.