Excess Returns

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sat down with Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research and YardeniQuickTakes.com. Ed is one of the most accurate and respected Wall Street strategists, and we were excited to discuss his views on the economy, markets, and forecasting.

We covered a wide range of topics, including:

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with our good friend Adam Butler, co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of ReSolve Asset Management.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sat down with NYU professor Aswath Damodaran to discuss his new book on the corporate life cycle and get his insights on a wide range of investing topics.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Jason Buck of Mutiny Funds to examine the idea of stocks for the long run and some potential challenges to it.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Andy Constan, founder of DampedSpring . We cover a wide range of topics, including recent market volatility, the broader economic outlook, and Andy's perspectives on inflation and monetary policy. Andy shares his framework for analyzing deleveraging events, emphasizes the importance of thinking in probabilities for market outcomes, and discusses potential long-term impacts of factors like AI and deglobalization on the economy. We explore his views on different economic scenarios and the Federal Reserve's actions. As always, Andy provides nuanced insights into market analysis and investment decisions, making for a thought-provoking conversation.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Meb Faber, founder of Cambria Investment Management, to discuss his unconventional views on investing that often go against mainstream opinions. We explore a wide range of topics, including the Federal Reserve's performance, dividend investing strategies, international diversification for U.S. investors, trend following, and the relationship between interest rates and stock market valuations. Throughout our conversation, Meb challenges common investing beliefs and provided evidence-based perspectives on various aspects of the market. We all can benefit from challenging our own strongly held investing beliefs and we hope this episode will help you do that as it did for us.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, our good friend Matt Ziegler interviews retirement planning expert Wade Pfau. They discuss key concepts in retirement income planning, including the 4% rule, variable withdrawal strategies, and Pfau's "safety first" approach. They discuss Wade's work on retirement income styles and the RISA (Retirement Income Style Awareness) framework he developed to help retirees and advisors determine appropriate strategies. They also explore topics like the benefits of delaying Social Security, the role of annuities in retirement planning, and managing sequence of returns risk. Wade also shares insights on tax-efficient withdrawals, evolving retirement challenges, and balancing frugality with enjoying life in the present.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we take a deep dive into value investing with our good friend Tobias Carlisle. We discuss the recent outperformance of small cap and value stocks, tackle the challenges of long periods of underperformance for value strategies, and examine how Tobias constructs his portfolios. We delve into his process for selecting stocks, including his focus on companies trading at discounts using the Acquirer's multiple and his approach to portfolio diversification. Our conversation also touches on the dominance of large tech companies and whether their outsized returns can continue. Throughout our discussion, Tobias emphasizes the importance of patience, skepticism about growth projections, and prioritizing survival over maximizing returns when investing.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we speak with Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research about his unique systematic approach to analyzing markets. We explore his outlook for the second half of 2024, discussing topics like the future of the 60/40 portfolio, inflation trends, labor market indicators, earnings expectations, and the impact of AI on productivity. Warren shares insights on market breadth, his newly launched quality-driven ETF strategy, and interesting perspectives on seasonality and retail sentiment. We also touch on his approach to combining systematic and discretionary investing methods. This wide-ranging conversation offers valuable insights for investors navigating the current market environment, showcasing Warren's ability to think outside the box and identify unique market opportunities.

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In this episode we have a fascinating discussion with Mike Green of Simplify about the ongoing impact of passive investing on markets. Mike shares insights from recent academic research supporting his thesis and discusses how the risks of passive may play out over time. We also explore potential risks from increased options usage and the short volatility trade.

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