In this episode of Excess Returns, we are joined by Jim Paulsen of Paulsen Perspectives. We unpack the complexities of tariffs, Federal Reserve policies, and investor psychology amidst a turbulent market environment. Jim brings his decades of experience to provide context, rational analysis, and long-term perspectives, steering clear of bold predictions and focusing instead on practical advice for navigating these uncertain times.

Main Topics Covered:

Jim’s perspective on market corrections and advice for investors during volatile periods, emphasizing emotional discipline and long-term thinking.The economic implications of tariffs, debunking the notion that they’re inflationary and exploring their contractionary effects.Critique of Federal Reserve policy, including their unprecedented actions and failure to ease despite market signals of deflation risk.Analysis of the U.S. dollar’s value and its impact on trade competitiveness, proposing a weaker dollar as an alternative to tariffs.The resilience of the private sector, bolstered by strong balance sheets and liquidity, as a buffer against recession fears.Thoughts on government debt, executive overreach, and Trump administration policies like deregulation and immigration.Investment strategies for the current environment.

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler is joined by special co-host Bogumil Baranowski to sit down with Chris Mayer. As the author of the acclaimed book 100 Baggers: Stocks That Return 100-to-1 and How to Find Them, former editor of influential newsletters, and co-founder of Woodlock House Family Capital, Chris brings a wealth of experience and a unique perspective to the table. In this conversation, we dive deep into the world of long-term investing, exploring timeless principles, the impact of AI on future opportunities, and the mindset required to identify and hold onto extraordinary businesses. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting out, this episode is packed with wisdom to help you navigate the markets with patience and purpose.

Main Topics Covered:

The potential for 100-bagger stocks in emerging industries like AI and how time reveals the winners.

The "twin engines" of growth and multiples, and why great businesses often trade at high valuations.

The merits and challenges of concentrated investing in a market dominated by giants like the "Mag Seven."

Strategies for dealing with drawdowns and maintaining conviction in great companies through volatility.

The importance of aligning investment strategies with the right type of capital, especially for family wealth.

How experiences as a banker, newsletter editor, and board member shape a business-owner mindset.

The role of boards in capital allocation and setting incentives that drive long-term value.

Insights from general semantics as a tool for critical thinking and avoiding investment pitfalls.

The power of journaling to track evolving thoughts and foster humility in investing.

Why patience is the ultimate lesson for investors and how to tune out market noise.

In this episode, we are joined by Rick Ferri, a renowned advocate for low-cost, evidence-based investing. With the market in the midst of a significant selloff, it was a great time to get Rick’s practical wisdom on navigating market volatility, maintaining simplicity in investing, and making informed portfolio decisions amidst economic uncertainty. With his disciplined approach and decades of experience, Rick shares actionable advice for investors looking to stay the course through today’s challenges. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just starting out, this discussion offers valuable perspectives to help you achieve long-term financial success.

Main Topics Covered:

Strategies for handling market uncertainty and avoiding rash decisions during volatile times.

The benefits of simplicity in investing and why the industry pushes complexity.

Debunking the myth of the "dead" 60/40 portfolio and tailoring asset allocation to individual needs.

Practical tips for sticking to your asset allocation through market ups and downs.

How inflation impacts portfolios and why personal inflation rates matter.

The case for international diversification and its long-term benefits.

Thoughts on economic policies like tariffs and their potential effects on markets.

Direct indexing: who it’s for, who it’s not for, and how it’s often oversold.

Why active management struggles to outperform, despite persistent marketing efforts.

Evaluating alternative investments like private credit and their risks.

Addressing the "age in bonds" rule of thumb and its relevance for different investors.

Questions to ask financial advisors to ensure you’re getting value for your fees.

Rick’s evolution as an investor and the four stages to simplicity.

An overview of the Core Four portfolio and its alignment with economic realities.

Approaches to rebalancing and when to let asset allocations glide.

Rick’s unique view on separating advisor fees for advice and asset management.

In this episode, we dive into the current economic landscape and its implications for investors with Andy Constan, founder of Damped Spring Advisors. Andy shares his expert analysis on the U.S. economy’s trajectory, the impact of policy shifts under the new administration, and the tools investors should consider—or avoid—in today’s volatile markets. From navigating the “slowdown sea” to unpacking the effects of tariffs and national debt, this conversation offers a deep dive into the forces shaping financial conditions and what it all means for your portfolio. Don’t miss Andy’s unique perspectives, including his contrarian take on quantitative easing!

Main Topics Covered:

Andy’s “Island Framework” and the current economic slowdown, including his shift from “Higher for Longer Island” to the “Slowdown Sea” en route to “Recession Island.”

The alignment of Trump, Powell, and Bessant’s goals to slow growth and curb inflation, and why this favors bonds over stocks.

The role and relevance of the “Trump Put” and “Powell Put” in today’s market, and why they’re farther out of the money than many expect.

The economic impact of proposed policies like tariffs, immigration restrictions, and expenditure cuts, including the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative.

The national debt debate: its mechanics, risks, and why Andy sees it as a burden on future generations.

Long-term inflation drivers, including demographics, productivity, and deglobalization’s inflationary pressures.

The Federal Reserve’s current position, its balance sheet challenges, and its flexibility to respond to economic shifts.The mechanics and pitfalls of leveraged ETFs, and why they’re a poor choice for long-term investors.

Andy’s contrarian view on quantitative easing as inherently pro-growth and inflationary, despite the 2008-2018 experience.

Join us for an insightful conversation with Cullen Roche, a renowned financial expert from Discipline Funds, as he breaks down some of the most pressing economic and market topics impacting investors today. Hosted by Justin and Jack, this episode of Excess Returns dives into a "fact and fiction" style discussion, where Cullen unpacks complex issues like Federal Reserve policies, tariffs, and the national debt with clarity and nuance. With his knack for simplifying the mechanics of markets and the economy, Cullen offers a fresh perspective on what’s really happening—and what it means for your financial future. Check out more about Cullen’s work at disciplinefunds.com.

Main Topics Covered:

• The Fed and Soft Landing: Cullen evaluates whether the Federal Reserve has successfully managed inflation and engineered a soft landing, reframing the analogy as stabilizing an economy in flight rather than landing it.
• Tariffs and Inflation: A deep dive into Trump’s tariff policies, exploring their impact as a corporate tax, their potential to drive inflation, and whether they can bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S.
• National Debt Concerns: Cullen shares his take on the U.S. national debt, downplaying immediate risks while acknowledging the long-term inflationary dangers of unchecked government spending creep.
• DOGE and Deficit Reduction: Thoughts on the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), its potential to cut waste, and the challenges of moving the needle given the dominance of entitlements and defense spending.
• AI’s Economic Impact: How artificial intelligence might boost productivity, its limits in transforming retail demand, and whether it offsets tariff-related economic pressures.
• Bond vs. Stock Market Smarts: Cullen debunks the myth that the bond market is inherently smarter than the stock market, emphasizing both are efficient in their own right.
• Mortgage Rates and Housing: A look at whether we’ll see ultra-low mortgage rates (like 3%) again, driven by secular trends in technology and population growth.
• Crypto Reserve Fund: Cullen critiques the idea of a U.S. crypto reserve, arguing it diverts resources from productive economic investments.
• Leg Day Economics: A lighthearted yet serious take on why leg day matters—not just for fitness, but for longevity and stability.

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Ziegler is joined by Lindsey Bell, Chief Market Strategist of Clearnomics, and Shannon Saccocia, Chief Investment Officer of Wealth at Neuberger Berman. They dive deep into the current market volatility and economic uncertainties facing investors. From tariff concerns to shifting consumer behaviors, they provide valuable insights on navigating these challenging times while maintaining a long-term investment perspective.

Key topics discussed:

• Tariffs and Market Uncertainty: How ongoing tariff discussions are creating business uncertainty, affecting pricing decisions, and potentially impacting economic growth

• Consumer Resilience: Analysis of consumer spending patterns, the importance of employment stability, and how different consumer segments are responding to economic pressures

• GDP Growth Projections: Examination of current GDP forecasts, including the Atlanta Fed's concerning Q1 projections, and why these numbers might be overly pessimistic

• Federal Reserve Strategy: Discussion on potential interest rate cuts for 2025, how the Fed is balancing inflation concerns with economic growth, and the challenges of monetary policy during tariff implementation

• Market Broadening: Insights on investment rotation beyond the Magnificent 7 tech stocks into sectors like healthcare, financials, and consumer discretionary

• International Investment Opportunities: Why investors should consider international exposure, particularly in European markets and potentially emerging markets including China

Buy Barry's Book

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In this initial episode of Rabbithole of our new show Rabbithole, Dave Nadig explores the psychology of money and investing with Barry Ritholtz, author of "How Not to Invest."

Their conversation challenges conventional financial wisdom and reveals insights about what money is, and how we use and invest it.

Key topics include:

Why money is a tool for freedom and agency, not a store of value or end goal

How childhood experiences shape our lifelong money behaviors and attitudes

Why market crashes affect us differently at various life stages

The dangers of algorithmic social media and information overload for investors

Why avoiding mistakes is more important than chasing extraordinary returns

Rethinking Bitcoin and other investments through better framing

The wisdom of humility in financial decision-making

Barry shares candid personal stories and draws on decades of experience as a trader, strategist, and wealth manager to identify the ideas, numbers, and behaviors that typically destroy wealth.

In this episode of Excess Returns, Justin and Matt welcome back investment strategist Mike Green for an in-depth conversation about the current state of markets, economic trends, and geopolitical developments.Mike shares his unique perspective on several key topics:Why traditional economic indicators like unemployment claims no longer accurately reflect economic reality due to the rise of the gig economy

How the Fed's interest rate hikes have counterintuitively benefited wealthy individuals through increased interest income

The strategic reasoning behind Trump administration policies, particularly regarding China, Russia, and global tradeAn analysis of market dynamics, including the mechanical nature of passive investing and its impact on price movements

Insights on inflation measurement challenges and the role of seasonal adjustments in recent dataThe conversation also explores how current political and economic conditions mirror historical patterns, with Mike drawing thought-provoking parallels to past societal transformations. He explains why the S&P 500's strong performance masks weakness in other market segments and offers his perspective on what investors should consider in today's environment.

Whether you're interested in markets, economics, or the intersection of politics and investing, this episode provides valuable insights from one of today's most original financial thinkers.

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In this episode, Larry Swedroe shares nine critical lessons that the markets taught investors in 2024. Drawing from decades of experience, Larry explains why market forecasts consistently fail, why valuations can't be used for market timing, and how seemingly obvious economic events often lead to surprising market outcomes.

Larry dives deep into the concept of "self-healing mechanisms" in markets, explaining how periods of poor performance often set the stage for strong future returns. He uses fascinating examples from reinsurance to value stocks to illustrate this principle.

The discussion also covers why "Sell in May and Go Away" is a dangerous myth, why active management continues to disappoint, and why proper diversification means always having some parts of your portfolio that aren't performing well.

Larry also explains why investors keep making the same mistakes and how they can break free from common behavioral biases.

The conversation includes practical insights on:

Why even a perfect economic crystal ball wouldn't help you predict markets

The dangers of judging investment strategies by their outcomes rather than their process

Why patience and discipline are crucial for investment success

How to think about diversification in a world dominated by large tech stocks

Whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting out, this episode offers valuable perspectives on building resilient portfolios and avoiding common investment pitfalls.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, Justin and Jack sit down with Scott McBride, CEO and portfolio manager at Hotchkis and Wiley, to explore the approach that has allowed them to succeed during a time when many other value investors have failed. McBride, with 24 years at the firm, shares insights into how their team has achieved impressive results by being willing to think differently from consensus.

Key topics discussed:

How market sentiment and emotion create opportunities for long-term investors

The importance of having the right team culture and being comfortable with contrarian positions

Their approach to valuing companies beyond traditional metrics like P/E ratiosWhy catalysts aren't necessary for investment success if you get valuation and governance right

Their perspective on international markets, particularly opportunities in Europe and the UK

Thoughts on AI's impact on businesses and investment analysis

The growing influence of passive investing and how it creates opportunities

McBride explains why having fewer analysts covering certain stocks can create opportunities, and why focusing on business quality, strong balance sheets, and good governance is crucial for long-term success. He also shares valuable insights about maintaining flexibility in investment approach rather than being dogmatic about any single strategy.

Whether you're an experienced investor or just starting out, this conversation offers practical wisdom about what works in value investing over the long term.

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