In this episode, we sit down with Ben Carlson of Ritholtz Wealth Management and A Wealth of Common Sense to talk about market valuations, the rise of AI, investor behavior, and what history can teach us about investing today. Ben shares his perspective on why valuations are harder to use than ever, how market structure has shifted, and the lessons he’s learned as both a writer and an investor navigating major market cycles.

Topics covered in this episode:

• Why market valuations are harder to use today than in the past

• The impact of buybacks, margins, and technology on long-term comparisons

• Market concentration and the dominance of mega-cap tech stocks

• Passive investing flows, investor behavior, and government backstops

• How AI compares to past technological innovations and its investment implications

• Value versus growth cycles and why U.S. tech has broken historical norms

• The lessons of the NASDAQ since 2000 and defining the long term for investors

• Personal experiences from the 2008 financial crisis and the power of compounding

• Diversification, gold’s surprising performance, and the case for international investing

Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and market valuations
06:00 Structural changes and the role of buybacks
09:00 Margins, efficiency, and corporate dominance
12:00 Market concentration and the rise of mega-cap tech
14:00 Passive investing and household stock ownership
18:00 Government backstops and market resilience
23:00 Valuations as expectations vs. predictions
25:00 AI boom and capital allocation
29:00 Is this 1996 or 1999? Bubble comparisons
32:00 How AI may reshape investing and daily life
41:00 Investing in breakthrough technologies
43:00 Value versus growth cycles in the U.S. and abroad
46:00 Lessons from the NASDAQ and defining long-term investing
49:00 Compounding lessons from the 2008 financial crisis
53:00 Diversification, gold, and international performance

In this episode, we sit down with Jim Paulsen to analyze the latest economic and market data through his lens of decades of market experience. Jim shares insights from his Paulsen Perspectives research, covering the job market, the Fed, inflation, valuations, investor confidence, and what they all mean for the future of the economy and markets. We explore why confidence is so low despite a bull market, how Fed policy is shaping market dynamics, and where investors might want to focus as the cycle evolves.

Topics covered in the episode:

• The job market’s pivotal role in driving the economy and Fed decisions

• Why recent Fed rate cuts may mark a turning point in market support systems

• The narrowness of the bull market and how innovation-driven firms diverge from traditional cycles

• Investor confidence, the “misery index,” and recession probability models

• How easing may broaden market participation beyond large-cap growth

• What “animal spirits” mean for small caps, high beta, and IPOs

• The disconnect between inflation, bond yields, and growth measures

• Gold, cash, crypto, and tech as “fear assets” in today’s environment

• The impact of tariffs on profits, wages, and inflation expectations

• Valuations in context: historical perspective and the upward bias of multiples

Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and market overview
02:00 Fed easing, inflation, and recession risks
09:00 Bull market without normal supports
17:00 Narrow leadership and innovative companies
23:55 Confidence and the misery index
29:35 Yield curve, recession probabilities, and Fed policy
34:00 Broadening of market participation
37:00 Animal spirit stocks and small caps
38:00 Inflation, bond yields, and resource unemployment
43:20 Copper-gold ratio and yields
45:10 The role of gold in portfolios
50:00 Cash, crypto, and tech as defensive assets
54:00 Tariffs, inflation, and profit margins
59:00 Inflation persistence vs. wage growth
01:01:10 Valuations and the upward bias in multiples
01:07:00 Closing thoughts and takeaways

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with John Tinsman, portfolio manager of the AOT Growth and Innovation ETF (AOTG). John shares how his investing journey began, the lessons he learned from both successes and failures, and how those experiences shaped his current investment philosophy. We dive deep into the concepts of low marginal cost, profitable growth, digital toll booths, and the transformative impact of AI. John also discusses his approach to valuation, position sizing, and why he believes large-cap growth and technology will continue to lead in the years ahead.

Main topics covered:

• John’s path from personal investing to launching an ETF

• Lessons learned from early stock picks and market-making experience

• The power of low marginal cost businesses and long-term compounding

• How AI is reshaping software development, innovation, and profitability

• The importance of revenue and earnings growth in stock selection

• Digital toll booths as the future of software business models

• Differences between profitable vs. unprofitable growth companies

• Why technology leadership today differs from the dot-com era

• The role of sectors, valuation, and position sizing in portfolio construction

• John’s views on growth vs. value, large-cap vs. small-cap, and future innovation trends

Timestamps:
00:00 The riskiest thing in investing
02:00 John’s background and early investing journey
05:00 Lessons from Apple, Boeing, Visa, and Potash
10:00 Insights from agriculture and value investing
12:00 AI’s impact on software development and innovation
16:00 Sectors, classifications, and thematic approaches
18:00 Comparing AI disruption to past bubbles
21:00 Profitability in today’s tech companies
22:00 Will the top companies stay dominant?
26:00 Large-cap vs. small-cap technology investing
28:00 Growth vs. value in today’s market
30:00 Demographics, Buffett’s lessons, and sector shifts
34:00 Value vs. software companies
35:00 Digital toll booths explained
37:00 Growth sustainability and digital infrastructure
40:00 Semiconductor cycles and long-term demand
44:00 Screening for growth and low marginal cost
47:00 Sell discipline and valuation checks
49:00 Position sizing and portfolio management
51:00 ETF tax benefits and structure
53:00 Where AOTG fits in portfolios
54:00 One belief peers disagree with
56:00 One lesson for the average investor
57:00 Closing thoughts and outro

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Joseph Shaposhnik, founder of Rainwater Equity and former star portfolio manager at TCW. Joseph shares the investment philosophy that drove his track record of outperformance, why he focuses on recurring revenue businesses, and how he evaluates management quality and capital allocation. We also explore lessons from great investors like Warren Buffett, Bill Miller, and Peter Lynch, along with insights on valuation, portfolio concentration, and the role of passive investing in today’s markets.

Main topics covered:

• How Joseph achieved long-term outperformance at TCW and what drove his results

• Why recurring revenue and predictable cash flows are central to his approach

• The importance of management quality and identifying “fanatics” vs. mercenaries

• Lessons investors should and should not take from Warren Buffett

• Bill Miller’s influence and backing of Rainwater Equity

• Characteristics Joseph looks for in great businesses and red flags in management teams

• Portfolio concentration, position sizing, and risk management

• Why you don’t need to have an opinion on every sector

• Selling discipline and knowing when it’s time to move on

• How valuation fits into his framework and how he thinks about paying up for quality

• The impact of passive investing and why active managers must take a long-term view

• Stories and lessons from Peter Lynch, including his enduring influence

Timestamps:
0:00 If a stock has doubled, you haven’t missed it
1:00 Introduction and Joseph’s track record at TCW
2:00 Keys to long-term outperformance
8:00 Lessons from Warren Buffett’s wins and mistakes
11:30 Bill Miller’s influence and support for Rainwater Equity
14:00 What defines a high-quality business
20:00 Free cash flow compounding and moats
24:00 Red flags in management teams
31:00 Why active management is broken and Joseph’s solution
35:00 Portfolio concentration and risk management
42:00 Sectors to avoid and why
47:00 Joseph’s selling discipline
53:00 Exceptional leaders and the role of management quality
58:00 Valuation, future value, and the changing economy
1:04:00 Passive investing and market distortions
1:09:00 Lessons and stories from Peter Lynch
1:14:00 Closing questions and key investing lessons
1:20:00 Where to learn more about Joseph and Rainwater Equity

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Sam Ro to revisit his widely read post “10 Stock Market Truths” and explore how each principle holds up in today’s market. From the long game of investing to short-term risks, valuations, AI, and earnings, Sam shares a timeless framework for navigating markets and separating noise from signal.

Topics covered:
• Why the long game is undefeated
• Short-term volatility and how to prepare for it
• The myth of average returns
• Asymmetric upside in markets and stocks
• AI as both opportunity and risk
• Earnings as the ultimate driver of stock prices
• Why valuations don’t predict the next year
• The role of uncertainty and hidden risks
• Turnover and evolution within the stock market
• Why the stock market isn’t the economy

Timestamps:
00:00 Average returns are misleading
02:00 Introducing Sam Ro
02:15 Truth #1: The long game is undefeated
08:40 Truth #2: You can get smoked in the short term
14:20 Do markets have a government backstop?
18:00 Truth #3: The myth of average returns
23:00 Truth #4: Asymmetric upside
28:00 AI as macro and micro driver
33:00 Truth #5: Earnings drive stock prices
36:30 Truth #6: Valuations won’t tell you much about next year
51:40 Truth #7: There will always be something to worry about
55:20 Truth #8: The destabilizing risks are the ones people aren’t talking about
01:05:00 Truth #9: There’s a lot of turnover in markets
01:11:00 Truth #10: The stock market isn’t the economy
01:20:00 Closing thoughts

In this episode, William Blair Global Strategist Olga Bitel joins us to unpack her “Perpetual Growth Machine” framework and what it means for investors navigating AI, tariffs, inflation volatility, market concentration, and a shifting global order. We dig into why growth often emerges from solving problems, how monopolies can stunt future innovation, where AI’s productivity dividends could accrue, and why she sees the next decade’s best opportunities outside the United States. Olga also walks through the risks she’s watching, why facts change faster than narratives, and practical ways to connect top-down insights with bottom-up research.

Topics covered

• The Perpetual Growth Machine: why needs spark innovation and growth, and how investors can spot it early

• Why monopolies look great to investors but hurt long-term growth and innovation

• AI as a general purpose technology and the scale of potential productivity savings

• Housing affordability, incomes, and policy bottlenecks through the PGM lens

• How firms are actually adopting AI and how faster data changes research cadence

• Europe’s defense build-out and the rise of national champions and small-cap innovators

• Interpreting market concentration and what it signals about competition

• Inflation oscillation, policy mix, and why the Fed’s tools have limits

• Tariffs as a regressive tax and how costs pass through to consumers over time

• US exceptionalism narrowing and why ex-US markets may lead in the coming cycle

• The Draghi report and tearing down barriers inside the EU single market

• Comparing late-1990s tech to today’s AI build-out and who the next leaders may be

• Growth vs. value: focusing on sustained profit inflections, not cheapness alone

• Using stakeholder analysis to link macro themes to bottom-up stock work

• Biggest opportunities: Japan, Korea, Europe, select emerging markets, and parts of the Middle East

• Biggest risk: a breakdown in the global order amid US-China tensions

• Closing lessons: stay curious, stay nimble, question narratives, track the facts

Timestamps
00:00 Introduction and Olga’s role at William Blair
02:49 The Perpetual Growth Machine explained
06:24 Policy bottlenecks, incentives, and growth
09:32 AI as a general purpose technology and productivity math
11:53 Practical AI adoption inside investment firms
15:06 Where PGM points to opportunity right now
16:26 Europe’s defense spending and emerging winners
19:02 Macro setup and consumer health
20:42 Inflation today and what’s changed under the hood
22:46 The Fed’s dilemma and limits of monetary policy
25:00 Tariffs 101: who pays and how it shows up
28:55 Early evidence in goods prices
29:41 US exceptionalism vs. the rest of the world
31:00 The Draghi report and a real EU single market
33:11 Can Europe and others catch up in tech?
36:15 EU financial services barriers and capital deployment
37:07 Portfolio implications: why look ex-US
39:10 Late-1990s tech vs. today’s AI cycle
41:20 Concentration risk and competition policy
42:26 Value vs. growth through the PGM lens
44:48 Base rates, sustaining growth, and churn at the top
49:33 Marrying macro themes with bottom-up research
51:08 Firsthand observation vs. headline narratives
52:20 Biggest opportunities across regions
53:00 Middle East changes and new listings
54:48 Biggest risk: global order and US-China tensions
55:36 Parting advice for investors

Ned Davis Research’s Chief Global Investment Strategist Tim Hayes joins us to break down NDR’s “360°” weight-of-the-evidence framework—how price, breadth, sentiment, macro and valuation fit together—and what those signals are saying right now. We dig into why he still classifies this as a secular bull market with rising secular-bear risks, how to separate real breadth thrusts from dead-cat bounces, the evolving bond/equity correlation, mega-cap concentration risk, the case for value/EM in a defensively rotating tape, and why gold’s secular and cyclical trends remain compelling. You’ll also hear how NDR allocates across stocks, bonds, cash (and gold), and Tim’s timeless lesson for investors: stay objective, disciplined, and flexible.

Topics Covered

• NDR’s 360° process: price + sentiment + macro + valuation, combined via equal-weighted composites (“weight of the evidence”)

• How to use breadth, put/call, and thrust signals without getting faked out

• Secular bull vs. secular bear: what would actually trigger the secular turn

• Reading the bond market: why the stock/bond correlation flipped in 2022 and what a 10-year above approximately 5.0–5.25% could mean

• Concentration risk in mega-cap tech; implications for the U.S. vs. the rest of the world

• Where value, small caps, and EM can shine in defensive rotations

• Gold: drivers of the move, secular/cyclical setup, and role in a balanced allocation

• Practical allocation: when cash was king (2022), current market-weight posture, and sizing for gold

• “No Pets Allowed”: why aggregates beat single “pet” indicators

• Using historical analogs carefully—and what to learn (and not learn) from them

• Tim’s core lesson: you can’t forecast reliably—stay flexible and evidence-driven

Timestamps (YouTube Chapters)

• 00:00 Don’t fight the tape—or the Fed (opening context)

• 01:06 Intro and why NDR’s process beats single charts

• 02:58 NDR’s 360° framework and composite models

• 05:31 Indicators that matter: breadth, sentiment, macro/valuation

• 08:11 Asset-allocation model (stocks/bonds/cash) and real-time record

• 09:27 “Secular bull intact; secular-bear risk rising” explained

• 13:04 What counts as a secular bear (’66–’82, 2000–’09)

• 15:05 Tightening vs. easing cycles and thrust reliability

• 16:22 What a breadth thrust actually looks like

• 19:55 From sentiment extremes to 50/200-day confirmation

• 20:06 Bonds and stocks: the correlation flip since 2022

• 22:47 Duration, rate-cut hopes, and why cash led in 2022

• 24:02 Mega-cap concentration risk—paths from here

• 27:23 Valuation: tech earnings yield at extremes; U.S. most expensive

• 29:14 Where value/small caps/EM can win; China’s role in EM

• 33:25 Gold’s standout year—drivers and positioning

• 36:16 Gold’s secular and cyclical bull case

• 37:13 How much gold belongs in a balanced portfolio

• 40:32 “No Pets Allowed”: trust aggregates, not single signals

• 47:16 Bear-watch vs. rally-watch signals in 2025

• 49:02 Using historical analogs without overfitting

• 51:00 NDR culture: objectivity over narratives

• 53:41 Why independence matters

• 53:59 Two closing questions: contrarian belief and one lesson

• 59:03 Where to find Tim and NDR; disclaimer

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Brent Donnelly, veteran trader, author, and president of Spectra Markets, to dive deep into macro markets, trading philosophy, the role of the Fed, and how AI is changing the way traders operate. Brent shares insights from his decades in FX and macro trading, his flexible approach to positioning, and the lessons he’s learned about risk management, narratives, and humility in markets.

Topics Covered:

• Why the Fed is becoming more political and what that means for markets

• The “re-acceleration that wasn’t” and lessons from quickly abandoning trades

• How to structure trades like gold calls and TLT puts for asymmetric payoff

• FX as the “exhaust valve” for tariffs and global capital flows

• Canada’s housing bubble and CAD vulnerabilities

• Inflation targeting, bond vigilantes, and the Fed’s credibility

• Avoiding the trap of perma-bearishness and using stop-losses as forced humility

• The importance of imagination in regime changes and Fed forecast errors

• How Brent is using LLMs and AI to trade headlines, structure trades, and analyze patterns

• Trading bubble names with options and risk-aware structures

• Lessons on flexibility, humility, and embracing uncertainty in markets

Timestamps:
00:00 – Fed independence and political pressure
02:00 – The failed “re-acceleration” thesis
06:00 – Structuring gold calls and TLT puts
14:00 – FX as the exhaust valve for tariffs
20:50 – Canada’s housing market and CAD risks
26:30 – The Fed as a political institution
32:40 – Inflation targeting and 3% as the new 2%
35:20 – Avoiding perma-bear bias and using stop-losses
42:00 – The Fed dinner story and the humility of wrong forecasts
46:30 – Using LLMs and AI in trading
53:00 – Shorting bubble names with call spreads
56:00 – Cheat sheets and pattern recognition with AI
59:30 – Lessons on flexibility and humility in trading
1:02:15 – Closing thoughts and where to follow Brent

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Cullen Roche of Discipline Funds for an in-depth conversation on the economy, markets, demographics, AI, and investing frameworks. Cullen cuts through the noise to explain the real forces shaping inflation, interest rates, the role of the Federal Reserve, and why he believes the U.S. faces more disinflationary pressures than inflationary risks. We also dive into his “defined duration” investing framework and preview his upcoming work on portfolio strategies.

Topics Covered

• Why fears of a looming debt crisis may be misplaced

• Inflation outlook, tariffs, and the Fed’s “soft landing” challenge

• The importance of Fed independence and risks of politicization

• Immigration, demographics, and long-term disinflationary trends

• How AI is reshaping productivity, inequality, and the job market

• Defined Duration Investing and asset-liability matching

• Lessons from all-weather strategies and the Permanent Portfolio

• Cullen’s “Forward Cap Portfolio” and future of global markets

Timestamps
00:00 – Cullen on debt crisis fears
02:32 – State of the U.S. economy post-COVID
05:18 – Inflation, tariffs, and shelter costs
10:25 – Soft landing vs. rolling recessions
14:07 – The Fed’s role and impossible job
19:25 – National debt and Ray Dalio’s crisis warning
27:52 – AI boom and disinflationary forces
31:01 – Immigration, demographics, and inflation
37:23 – Aging population and wealth inequality
43:00 – How AI impacts productivity and jobs
52:00 – Defined Duration Investing explained
1:01:34 – Portfolio strategies: Permanent Portfolio & risk parity
1:03:54 – Cullen’s “Forward Cap Portfolio”
1:06:31 – Closing thoughts and future projects

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with EricPachman of Bancreek Capital to explore the intersection of data, economics, andinvesting. Eric shares his unique journey from the corporate world tohealthcare transparency and ultimately to building a data-driven investmentfirm rooted in information theory. We dive deep into employment trends,healthcare’s role in the economy, immigration, inflation, and how hissystematic process identifies companies with the endurance to thrive.

### Topics Covered

* Eric’s unconventional career path: from Morgan Stanley andExxonMobil to founding 46Brooklyn and joining Band Creek

* How personal experiences led him to tackle healthcaretransparency and drug pricing reform

* The role of **information theory** in investing and thefoundation of Band Creek’s systematic process

* Building powerful data visualizations to understand labormarkets, inflation, and structural economic changes

* Why healthcare dominates recent U.S. job growth and therisks of overreliance on one sector

* The impact of immigration on labor force growth andstructural inflation

* Key drivers of inflation and how to interpret CPI and PCEdata

* How Band Creek applies systematic endurance and the KellyCriterion to equity selection

* Sector exposures and lessons learned from applyingdata-driven models internationally

* Eric’s views on cognitive biases, why most investors can’treliably beat the market, and the power of data analysis