In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler and Jason Buck sit down with Eric Crittenden, CIO of Standpoint Funds, for a wide-ranging and candid discussion about trend following, risk transfer markets, and what it takes to build a resilient investment strategy for uncertain futures. Eric shares decades of hard-won insights on investor behavior, portfolio construction, performance pain points, and why blending passive equities with systematic macro might just be the future of asset allocation.

🔍 Topics Covered:

• The uncomfortable realities of trend following performance

• Why many investors misunderstand managed futures

• Eric’s view on the current drawdown and client behavior

• Setting expectations with empirical data and simulations

• The case for blending passive equities with trend following

• Capital formation vs. risk transfer markets explained

• What market participants get wrong about futures

• The surprising resilience of cap-weighted equity indexes

• The flaws in relying on bonds as diversifiers

• How regime shifts and correlation changes affect trend models

• Philosophical take on risk, regulation, and structural market design

Most investors chase yield. But what if the very models they rely on — from dividend screens to the 4% rule — are fundamentally broken?

In this episode, we’re joined by Ryan Krueger, co-founder of Freedom Day Solutions and manager of the MBOX ETF, to explore the overlooked truths of dividend investing. Ryan breaks down the importance of dividend growth over yield, why most dividend strategies ignore free cash flow, and how a disciplined sell process separates long-term success from failure. He also explains the concept of “Freedom Day” — a reimagined approach to retirement that’s built on income, not asset totals.

Whether you're a dividend investor, financial advisor, or retiree planning for long-term income, this conversation offers a fresh, practical framework you won’t hear elsewhere.

We discuss:

• Why dividend growth beats high yield over time

• The flaws in the 4% withdrawal rule

• How yield-on-cost changes investor behavior

• Red flags hidden inside popular dividend ETFs

• How “Freedom Day” redefines retirement planning

• Ryan’s quant + discretionary investment process

• The underrated power of sell discipline

• Why “never add to losers” might boost your returns

📈 Learn more about Ryan’s work: https://freedomdaysolutions.com

In this episode, we’re joined by Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin and author of Hate the Game, to explore the most dramatic shift in the U.S. housing market in over a decade. With sellers now outnumbering buyers by more than 500,000 for the first time since 2013, Daryl breaks down what’s really happening beneath the surface—and why so many homeowners and policymakers are reluctant to face it.

We dive into the behavioral and structural forces shaping the market today, from price stickiness and record cancellations to zoning reform and climate-driven migration. Whether you're a homeowner, investor, or policy wonk, this conversation offers a comprehensive look at what’s next for real estate in America.

Topics discussed include:

• The shift to a buyer’s market and why it matters

• The gap between seller expectations and buyer reality

• Regional pain points: Florida, Texas, and beyond

• Why insurance costs and HOAs are distorting markets

• Buyer psychology, affordability, and rent vs. own dynamics

• Tariffs, uncertainty, and interest rate volatility

• The policy fixes Daryl believes we need—fast

• Climate risk, migration, and Redfin’s flood data experiment

• Why your home shouldn't be your investment strategy

• Lessons from game theory and behavioral economics

Guest Links:
Daryl Fairweather’s book Hate the Game is available now on Amazon and Audible.
Follow Daryl on X, LinkedIn, and Substack @FairweatherPhD

Robert Hagstrom returns to discuss the investing principle he believes most value investors still misunderstand—despite decades of evidence from Warren Buffett. In this conversation, we explore why focus investing works, what traditional value investors got wrong about the Magnificent Seven, and how the industry's obsession with low P/E ratios and short-term tracking error leads to missed opportunities. Hagstrom also reflects on lessons from working with Bill Miller and explains why evolving your investment approach is essential for long-term success.

In this episode, we discuss:

• How Hagstrom fell into money management by accident

• What Buffett’s 1983 letter taught him about investing

• The dangers of rigid value investing frameworks

• Why most active managers fail over time

• The key to compounding that investors overlook

• Drawdowns, tracking error, and the psychology of focus investing

• Why private equity’s appeal is mostly an illusion

• What Buffett’s surprise CEO handoff really means for Berkshire Hathaway

Megan Horneman: Fragile Optimism, Hidden Inflation Risks, and What Investors Are Missing

In this episode, we’re joined by Megan Horneman, Chief Investment Officer at Verdence Capital Advisors, to discuss her firm’s 2025 outlook and what she sees as the key macro risks and opportunities for investors right now.

We explore the themes behind her “Year of Fragile Optimism” thesis, including consumer stress, inflation persistence, the impact of tariffs, debt sustainability, and why many investors are misreading the current market environment.

Megan also shares how she’s thinking about portfolio positioning in a world where traditional recession indicators are breaking down and valuations remain elevated.

Topics Discussed Include:

• Why consumer strength may be a mirage

• The risk of complacency around inflation

• Tariffs, trade imbalances, and global uncertainty

• The growing consequences of U.S. and global debt

• Why small/mid-caps and international stocks may offer better value

• Fixed income positioning in a “higher for longer” environment

• The case for active management over passive in today’s market

• Opportunities and risks in alternatives and private assets

• Lessons investors can learn from recent volatility

If you're looking for a thoughtful macro perspective and practical ideas for navigating today's complex market landscape, this conversation is for you.

GMO’s Warren Chiang joins us for a deep dive into the art and science of systematic value investing. In this episode, Warren shares how his team has refined traditional value investing to adapt to an intangible-heavy world, the structural reasons deep value is historically cheap today, and how top-down insights from GMO’s asset allocation group are implemented in practice. We also explore how ESG, momentum, macro, and geopolitical shifts—including the China decoupling—are integrated into portfolio construction, and what investors can learn from GMO’s global perspective on valuations.

Topics Covered:

Why GMO didn’t abandon value—it improved it

The difference between "value" and "valuation"

How restating financial statements improves valuation accuracy

GMO’s two-step top-down and bottom-up ETF strategy

The deep value opportunity: why it’s never been cheaper

How GMO incorporates quality in a forward-looking way

Why momentum and macro are excluded from some strategies

How ESG is treated as a portfolio risk—not virtue signaling

The China supply chain shift and the Beyond China strategy

Passive investing’s long-term impact on price discovery

Managing risk, constraints, and position sizing in quant portfolios

Whether today’s market mirrors the dot-com bubble

What’s driving valuation gaps across global markets

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with Peter Atwater—President of Financial Insyghts, author of The Confidence Map, and expert on decision-making under uncertainty. Peter lays out a bold and timely framework: in a world led by dominant nationalist figures, global corporations—and their investors—must now navigate a high-stakes game of being labeled either beneficiaries or victims. This conversation digs deep into how these dynamics shape capital flows, investor sentiment, policy risk, and the future of globalization.

📌 Topics Covered:

Why today’s political leaders are reshaping markets and capitalism

How investors must rethink confidence, control, and certainty

The "beneficiary vs. victim" framework for companies and countries

Implications for capital allocation in a deglobalizing world

Fragility of dominant leadership and geopolitical risk

How social media and sentiment shape investor perception

Where investors are most misaligned with current realities

Confidence mapping for AI, private credit, Chinese equities, and more

David Giroux, CIO and Head of Investment Strategy at T. Rowe Price Investment Management, has achieved something rare in investing—beating his Morningstar peer group for 17 consecutive years. In this conversation, Giroux shares his investment philosophy, including how he identifies GARP (growth at a reasonable price) opportunities, adapts to market inefficiencies, and constructs a resilient portfolio. He also discusses his outlook on AI, interest rates, market cycles, and why long-term thinking remains a powerful edge in today's short-term-obsessed market.

We cover:

Why most investors overlook high-quality GARP stocks—and how Giroux takes advantage

How he navigates market cycles with 5-year IRR forecasts

Why long-term thinking gives him a contrarian advantage

The impact of AI on productivity, employment, and portfolio margins

His quantitative and qualitative approach to evaluating companies

What investors get wrong about financials, utilities, and passive investing

The CEOs he admires most—and what makes them exceptional

Why he thinks macro forecasts (including Fed-watching) offer little value

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with Rupert Mitchell—founder of Blind Squirrel Macro—for an insightful, opinionated, and often humorous discussion on global market dynamics, the Mag 7, structural portfolio shifts, and what it takes to be a successful generalist investor. From the “Chart of Truth” to the hidden value in tire stocks, Rupert brings decades of experience and a distinctive lens to markets, risk, and opportunity.

🔍 Topics Covered:

Why European pension funds are rethinking U.S. equity exposure

The “Chart of Truth” and its implications for global allocations

The unexpected strength of retail investors in recent rallies

Mag 7 dominance, Nvidia’s market impact, and AI euphoria

Why Apple might be the ultimate funding short

A deep dive into the “Bushy” portfolio and why 60/40 is broken

How inflation volatility shapes asset choices and international diversification

The case for owning Goodyear and Korean utilities

The problem with adjusted EBITDA and financial storytelling

How being a generalist can be a competitive investing edge

🎙️ Inside Causeway’s Quant Playbook | Joe Gubler on Factor Innovation, Risk, and Portfolio Design

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Joe Gubler, Director of Quantitative Research at Causeway Capital. Joe shares a deep dive into Causeway’s distinctive approach to factor investing, blending traditional quant signals with fundamental insights, and building models that adapt to market context. From constructing proprietary sustainability alpha signals to using machine learning to refine quality definitions, Joe reveals a cutting-edge playbook for the future of quantitative investing.

📌 In This Episode, You'll Learn:

Why Causeway doesn't treat its quant model as sacrosanct

How to blend fundamental overlays with systematic strategies

The logic behind composite factors and contextual weighting

Unconventional factor signals like corporate events and peer-based momentum

How machine learning enhances quality assessment

How Causeway adapts factor models across regimes and markets

What most quants miss when it comes to factor construction and interpretation

The evolving role of AI and NLP in alpha generation

Joe's views on passive flows and fundamental mispricings