Excess Returns

Brian Portnoy of Shaping Wealth explores why experienced investors build very different portfolios—and what that means for your own money.

In How I Invest My Money Volume Two, 25 new contributors explain how they invest their personal wealth. Brian joins Matt Zeigler to discuss what those stories reveal about the gap between an optimal portfolio on paper and one you can actually live with.

From large cash reserves and paid-off mortgages to investments in their own businesses, their choices reflect family needs, career risk, and priorities that a model can struggle to capture.

The conversation also explores why low-cost index funds don't settle every investing question, how financial professionals think about bonds and alternatives, and what it means to compound relationships, knowledge, and opportunities alongside money.

How I Invest My Money Volume Two:
https://link.amazon/B0aVpNlfS

Topics covered:

• Why knowing how markets work doesn't produce one right portfolio for everyone
• What Ben Hunt and other contributors reveal about investing beyond a brokerage account
• Connecting personal goals to asset allocation and risk tolerance
• Why business ownership and household needs change the role of stocks and bonds
• Why financial professionals may deliberately hold substantial cash reserves
• The difference between spreadsheet optimization and a portfolio you can stick with
• Paying off a mortgage, feeling secure, and accepting the opportunity cost
• The complexity and illiquidity that can come with alternative investments
• Matt Zeigler's approach to compounding human, intellectual, social, and financial capital
• Brian Portnoy's experience editing the book with his son Zach and sharing opportunities across generations

Chapters:

00:00 How finance professionals invest their own money
05:35 Why investing extends beyond index funds
12:20 Connecting financial goals to portfolio choices
18:32 Why investors choose different stock and bond allocations
25:05 Cash reserves, career risk, and peace of mind
34:55 Paying off a mortgage: security versus opportunity cost
40:11 Alternatives, complexity, and the investment industry
44:40 Matt Zeigler on investing in more than money
52:22 Brian Portnoy on family, opportunity, and working with his son

Shaping Wealth:
https://www.shapingwealth.com

Follow Brian Portnoy on X:
https://x.com/bportnoy_

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Rob Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates and chairman of Syzygy Asset Management, examines S&P 500 concentration and who could benefit most from AI. Owning today’s market leaders is not necessarily the same as owning tomorrow’s biggest investment winners.

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In this episode of The Intangible Economy, Rob joins Kai Wu to explore how index construction shapes what investors own, why index additions can create hidden costs, and why he would consider buying a richly valued IPO before index funds have to buy it. The conversation also covers AI’s shift toward capital-intensive business models, GPU depreciation, intangible assets, and the importance of testing investment ideas rather than chasing impressive backtests.

Topics covered:

• Why Rob Arnott sees a real AI revolution alongside risks in the prices of its leading stocks
• How AI customers could capture value beyond the infrastructure builders
• Valuation changes versus fundamental growth in large and smaller companies
• Tesla, SpaceX, and the price pressures surrounding index inclusion
• Hidden implementation costs that do not appear in an index fund’s expense ratio
• Selecting index members by business size rather than market value
• AI financing, customer economics, and the risk of rapid hardware obsolescence
• R&D, intangible assets, and what conventional book value can miss
• Competitive moats, leadership, and creating value for customers
• Using AI in research while resisting overfitting and performance chasing

Research discussed:

⁠The Active Side of Indexing⁠

⁠Fundamental Growth⁠

Learn more about ⁠Syzygy Asset Management⁠.

Timestamps:

00:00 Rob Arnott on index concentration and AI’s future winners

12:13 What S&P 500 investors own and pay for

20:35 Why Rob Arnott would buy before index inclusion

25:41 Hidden index costs and fundamental membership rules30:37 Passive investing’s embedded decisions

36:40 Big Tech’s shift from asset light to capital intensive

42:41 GPU depreciation and economic obsolescence

47:03 R&D, intangible assets, and value investing

51:04 How durable are competitive moats?

59:01 Using AI in business and investment research

01:05:11 Performance chasing and the backtest trap

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:⁠excessreturns.co⁠

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Paisley Nardini of Tema ETFs explores AI investing, S&P 500 concentration, and how to build a portfolio around changing market risks. How can investors participate in powerful growth trends without making every holding a bet on the same outcome?

In this episode of Excess Returns, Paisley joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to discuss the risks beneath a resilient stock market, why tomorrow’s AI winners may differ from today’s leaders, and where she sees opportunities in power and infrastructure. They also explore private-company exposure inside ETFs, the role of thematic funds alongside a passive core, and why knowing what you own matters more than the number of holdings in your portfolio.

Topics covered:

• What weak market breadth reveals beneath the headline indexes
• Interest rates, midterm elections, and the limits of historical market patterns
• Prediction markets as a source of information for investors
• AI earnings expectations, debt financing, and the risk of slowing growth
• Why bonds can provide income without reliably offsetting equity risk
• Small-cap profitability and the importance of quality screens
• AI bottlenecks, photonics, power demand, and infrastructure investment
• Private-company exposure in ETFs: liquidity, fees, and investment rationale
• Using thematic strategies as satellite positions around a passive core
• Portfolio concentration, investment humility, and staying flexible

Learn more about Tema ETFs.

Follow Paisley Nardini on X.

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction and the risks beneath the market
04:37 Higher rates and the midterm election outlook
09:17 What investors can learn from prediction markets
13:36 AI growth expectations and changing market leadership
19:50 Portfolio risk, bonds, and faster market drawdowns
26:09 The AI bubble debate and small-cap quality
33:45 Who benefits from AI beyond the hyperscalers?
39:29 Energy infrastructure and putting AI to work
45:54 Private-company exposure inside ETFs
52:01 Where thematic investing fits in a portfolio
58:32 Commodities, S&P 500 concentration, and humility

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Colin McQueen of T. Rowe Price explains what is changing for international value stocks and how he separates cheap businesses from opportunities that can improve. Higher interest rates, industrial investment, and corporate reform are reshaping the opportunity set, but his process still starts with free cash flow and the price investors pay for it.

Colin joins Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand to discuss his evolution from deep value investing to a broader approach that includes quality businesses and restructuring opportunities. We explore why value struggled in the 2010s, what has changed outside the US, and how he uses valuation signals and diversification to manage risk.

The conversation also covers AI suppliers and disruption, governance changes in Japan and Korea, opportunities and risks in China, and the case for financial stocks. Colin shares examples involving Samsung, Hitachi, and Rolls-Royce, along with his experiments using AI to challenge investment theses and recognize when conviction has become stubbornness.

Topics covered:

• The lessons Colin McQueen learned from deep value, quality investing, and a difficult decade for value
• How higher rates and spending on infrastructure, defense, and power can change the opportunity set
• AI supply-chain opportunities and the uncertainty around future winners and losers
• Valuing tangible and intangible businesses through normalized free cash flow
• Using AI as an alternative voice when deciding whether an investment thesis is broken
• The US-international valuation gap, earnings growth, and diversification beyond tech
• Japan's corporate reforms, Korea's value-up effort, and the importance of what is already priced in
• China's contrarian appeal and the governance risks that accompany it
• How restructuring, management changes, and better capital allocation can unlock value
• Building a diversified portfolio and looking beyond quarterly earnings and market narratives

T. Rowe Price International Value Fund

https://www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/us/en/investments/mutual-funds/us-products/international-value-equity-fund/advisor-class.htmlTimestamps:

00:00 Colin McQueen's evolution as a value investor
07:04 Why deep value struggled in the 2010s
11:20 Higher rates and a more balanced opportunity set
16:20 International value, financials, and AI suppliers
21:20 AI versus the dot-com era and managing valuation risk
25:27 Free cash flow, restructuring, and AI-assisted research
29:56 Comparing US and international valuations
35:39 The risk dashboard and changing European markets
40:00 Corporate reform and opportunities in Japan and Korea
44:57 China, Asia ex Japan, and financial stocks
49:31 Global connections and why a stock market isn't an economy
54:55 Diversification and researching corporate turnarounds
59:57 Looking beyond quarterly earnings and extreme narratives

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Jim Paulsen sees a risk of a stock market correction as financial conditions tighten and investors grow comfortable with tech's long run of leadership. But his warning does not require a recession or the end of the bull market.

In this month's Jim Paulsen Show, Jim joins Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand to walk through the charts behind his cautious outlook. He explains how rising yields, oil prices, and a firmer dollar can affect the economy with a lag, why favorable seasonality may offer less support than investors expect, and how a slowdown in technology spending could challenge market leadership.

We also explore the signals Jim sees in retail, housing, employment, and Walmart's relative performance. He closes with a possible path through a correction: slowing growth, lower inflation and yields, and a recovery that could give the bull market another run. His seven lagging sectors, the "Modest Seven," are central to that case.

Topics covered:

• Why Jim Paulsen is cautious without making a recession or full bear-market call
• His financial-conditions gauge and the risks of tightening into an already pressured economy
• How restrictive conditions can weaken the November-to-April seasonal advantage
• The delayed effects of bond yields, oil prices, and the dollar on economic surprises
• Technology spending relative to GDP and why slower growth could matter for tech stocks
• AI adoption, pricing, and the challenge of turning investment into profits
• How two decades of tech leadership may encourage complacency and crowded positioning
• The divide between AI, inflation-assisted sectors, and the "Modest Seven"
• What sector performance, bond yields, and the Walmart Recession Signal suggest about growth
• Why rate cuts may initially accompany falling stocks, and how a correction could set up another advance

Follow Jim Paulsen:

Paulsen Perspectives
Jim Paulsen on X

Timestamps:

00:00 Jim Paulsen's outlook: correction risk without a bear-market call
07:41 Restrictive conditions and the seasonal buying period
14:12 Why the Fed and investors interpret conditions differently
20:28 Oil, yields, the dollar, and their lagged effects
26:00 Technology spending relative to the economy
30:18 Can AI break the historical pattern?
35:00 Tech's long leadership cycle and investor complacency
42:00 AI, inflation-assisted sectors, and the Modest Seven
47:06 Market signals ahead of economic reports and bond pressure
53:00 Bond competition and the Walmart Recession Signal
58:11 How a correction could lead to another bull-market run

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Barry Ritholtz, Dave Nadig and Matt Zeigler explore why AI's real productivity gains don't automatically translate into an investing edge. From stock picking and market concentration to the financing behind the AI buildout, they separate enthusiasm for the technology from the economics of owning it.

Subscribe to Click Beta on Spotify⁠⁠⁠

⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to Click Beta on Apple Podcasts

In this episode of Click Beta, Barry Ritholtz and Dave Nadig join Matt Zeigler for a conversation about where AI is already changing their work and where investors should ask harder questions. Barry shares how his team uses AI to analyze portfolio drift and identify clients who may need a rebalance. The discussion also covers client relationships, consumer pricing, creative side projects, and why Barry is increasingly enthusiastic about bonds without calling an end to the equity bull market.

Topics covered:

• Why widely available AI tools may improve research without creating a lasting stock-picking advantage
• Market breadth, mega-cap concentration, and the potential impact of large tech IPOs
• Data center financing, credit quality, and the risk of rapid technological change
• Barry Ritholtz's use of AI to analyze allocation drift, taxes, and household circumstances
• How better meeting records can strengthen the human side of financial advice
• Learning to collaborate with AI and asking better questions
• The debate over dynamic pricing, consumer data, and whose interests AI agents serve
• Baseball tools, astronomy dashboards, music discovery, and the joy of experimenting
• Deciding which tasks to automate and which activities are worth doing yourself
• Barry Ritholtz's case for bonds, municipal income, and avoiding the reach for yield

Find our guests:

Barry Ritholtz — The Big Picture - https://ritholtz.com
Ritholtz Wealth Management - https://www.ritholtzwealth.com
Barry Ritholtz on X - https://x.com/Ritholtz
Dave Nadig's work at etf.com - https://www.etf.com
Dave Nadig on X - https://x.com/DaveNadig

Timestamps:

00:00 Meet Click Beta: AI and the stock-picking question
05:14 AI concentration and market breadth
10:08 Tech IPO valuations and data center financing
15:22 Barry Ritholtz: AI and portfolio rebalancing analysis
20:58 Can AI improve the human side of financial advice?
25:49 Better client questions and better prompts
30:13 The AI imagination gap: collaboration versus search
36:48 Dynamic pricing and the consumer-retailer arms race
41:26 Consumer data and the incentives behind AI agents
45:54 Astronomy, music, and testing your assumptions
51:18 Automating busywork to make room for curiosity
55:39 Creative experiments and choosing what to automate
01:00:11 Why Barry Ritholtz is excited about bonds
01:04:37 Bonds versus equity income and closing thoughts

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Chris Davis and Robert Hagstrom explore the tension between holding great businesses and keeping a winning stock from becoming too much portfolio risk. Why do two investors who believe in letting winners compound also use 10% position limits?

On this episode of 100 Year Thinkers, Chris Davis of Davis Funds and Robert Hagstrom of EquityCompass join Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to discuss position sizing, selling mistakes, index concentration and the cost of growth. From Chris Davis’s experience selling Costco to the debate over who will capture AI’s economic benefits, they examine what it takes to hold a business through uncertainty without ignoring risk. Stay for Matt and Bogumil’s closing discussion of the lessons for investors.

Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers of Spotify⁠⁠

⁠⁠Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers of Apple

Topics covered:

• Why selling a genuinely great business can be an investor’s most expensive mistake
• How client behavior and fund constraints influence 10% position limits
• Chris Davis’s concerns about index concentration, momentum and future IPO incentives
• Robert Hagstrom on trimming positions as the margin of safety shrinks
• The bull-case pre-mortem: asking what could make selling today a mistake
• What Chris Davis missed about Costco’s growth and ability to adapt
• Why identical earnings growth can produce different shareholder returns
• Whether AI spending builds durable pricing power or delivers more value to users
• How customer trust and restraint on margins can strengthen competitive advantages
• Balance sheets, circular financing and the humility required to size a position

⁠Chris Davis / Davis Funds⁠

⁠Robert Hagstrom / EquityCompass⁠

Chapters:

00:00 Holding great businesses and the case for position limits

06:47 Robert Hagstrom on concentration and client risk

12:40 Index concentration, momentum and IPO incentives

19:03 Trimming winners, margin of safety and the Costco lesson

30:09 Valuation, return on capital and the cost of growth36:01 Is AI’s capital spending cycle temporary?

40:10 AI pricing power: builders versus users

45:35 Competitive advantage, margins and customer trust51:45 Balance sheets and circular AI financing

55:53 Evaluating the AI investment cycle

01:00:23 Matt and Bogumil’s takeaways: position sizing and AI

01:10:25 Being an AI user versus an AI investor

Learn more about the ⁠Excess Returns podcast network⁠.

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies explains why the S&P 500 can reach record highs while many individual stocks struggle. She sees the bull market as intact, but weaker participation raises an important question for diversified investors: is the pullback creating opportunity, or signaling a more lasting change?

In this episode of Excess Returns, Katie Stockton joins Matt Zeigler and Justin Carbonneau to examine market breadth, rising Treasury yields, sector leadership and the signals that would change her outlook. She also explains why the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF holds roughly half its assets in equities at the time of the conversation, and walks through the charts for gold, oil and Bitcoin.

Topics covered:

• Why narrow leadership can sustain the index while diversified portfolios lag
• The difference between an overbought market and a downturn in momentum
• Why weak breadth alone is not a reliable market-timing signal
• Small-cap support levels and the difference between a relief rally and a lasting recovery
• The Treasury-yield breakout and credit spreads as a longer-term risk gauge
• Sector relative strength, technology leadership and international market concentration
• How the TACK ETF's rules-based approach produces more defensive positioning
• Gold's role as a potential hedge despite a weakening price trend
• Crude oil's support and resistance levels and Katie Stockton's Bitcoin outlook
• The BNAV ETF's tactical Bitcoin strategy and the risk signals to watch into year-end

Learn more about Fairlead Strategies.

Follow Katie Stockton on X.

Chapters:

00:00 The bull market and weakening breadth
06:02 Narrow leadership and small-cap weakness
13:43 Treasury yields, breakouts and resistance
18:56 Credit spreads and sector leadership
24:53 TACK positioning, semiconductors and international stocks
30:22 Gold, oil and Bitcoin: reading the trends
35:30 Bitcoin indicators and the BNAV strategy
39:47 Credit, volatility and tech: the year-end risk watch

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network.

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Tom Maher of Hilton Capital Management explains what is changing for small-cap stocks as earnings improve and AI spending reaches beyond big tech. After years of justified large-cap leadership, he sees reasons to revisit smaller companies while remaining selective about business quality, financing needs and valuation.

In this episode of Excess Returns, we explore the physical infrastructure behind AI, the case for diversifying beyond the largest stocks, and how Tom Maher finds businesses with improving fundamentals. We also discuss the effects of passive investing, opportunities in reshoring, and why knowing more about a company does not always lead to a better investment decision.

Topics covered:

• Why stronger earnings helped justify large-cap leadership and what could change that balance
• How AI construction and equipment spending can benefit smaller industrial companies
• Why some small companies grow into large caps while others remain small
• Self-funding businesses versus companies that depend on outside capital
• Unprofitable index constituents, private equity and the changing IPO market
• How interest rates affect financing costs, valuations and portfolio decisions
• Why ETF flows can move a stock independently of its business fundamentals
• Finding improving businesses without mistaking a low valuation for an opportunity
• Evaluating management incentives, consistency and acquisition decisions
• Tom Maher's lessons on taking partial profits and reading unexpected stock-price reactions

Learn more about Hilton Capital Management.

Chapters:

00:00 Tom Maher's outlook: earnings, valuations and risk
05:26 Small-cap earnings and AI infrastructure spending
11:41 Defining small caps and why some companies stay small
16:45 Active management and business quality
22:03 Small-cap index quality and companies staying private
27:15 Combining stock selection with a macro view
32:58 Higher interest rates and portfolio decisions
37:04 Passive investing and ETF-driven stock moves
41:33 Finding stocks with improving fundamentals
51:13 Valuation, consistency and management quality
56:39 Reshoring and the industrial recovery
01:01:14 Research, profit-taking and investor expectations

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network.

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research explains why he still sees the S&P 500 reaching 10,000 by 2029, even as higher oil prices and bond yields make him more cautious near term. His destination hasn't changed, but the timetable has: he has pushed his 8,400 target to mid-2027 while retaining his Roaring 2020s outlook.

In this conversation with Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand, Ed distinguishes an earnings-led bull market from a speculative melt-up, explains why retiring baby boomers keep spending, and makes the case for AI's benefits spreading beyond the Magnificent Seven. He also weighs the return of the bond vigilantes, diesel's inflation impact, global diversification and the risks that could challenge his optimistic base case.

Topics covered:

• Ed Yardeni's FEMO: fabulous earnings momentum versus fear of missing out
• Why strong earnings can support stocks even as valuation multiples fall
• The assumptions behind Ed Yardeni's S&P 500 target of 10,000 by 2029
• Retiree wealth, consumer spending and Ed Yardeni's G-shaped economy
• AI, productivity and data as a fourth factor of production
• Why Ed Yardeni favors the “impressive 493” as potential AI beneficiaries
• Cloud revenue, compute demand and the returns on AI capital spending
• Bond vigilantes, fiscal deficits and the difference between growth-driven yields and a debt crisis
• How diesel costs could feed into core inflation
• Global diversification and the bond market's role in guiding Fed policy

Chapters:
00:00 Ed Yardeni's bull case and near-term caution
04:26 The Roaring 2020s and retiree spending
08:53 Technology and the productivity thesis
13:06 AI, economic growth and data as a resource
18:22 Why the economy is more than AI spending
24:10 AI returns and the impressive 493
29:48 Valuations, S&P 10,000 and rising bond yields
38:42 Government debt and demand for Treasuries
43:34 Diesel inflation and global diversification
47:41 Fed policy and signals from the bond market
51:55 Yardeni Research's process and tools
56:19 Why Ed Yardeni favors a G-shaped economy

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co