Bob Robotti, founder and CIO of Robotti & Company, joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to explain why bottom-up value investing may be entering one of its best opportunity sets in decades. They discuss AI and reindustrialization, inflation and interest rates, passive investing, capital cycles, private equity, long-term ownership, and why today's neglected industrial businesses may offer opportunities that the market is missing.

Bob Robotti on X
https://x.com/BobRobotti

Robotti & Company
https://www.robotti.com

Topics covered

• How Bob finds misunderstood businesses with latent earnings power

• Why his "grassroots macro" process starts with company-level supply and demand

• How AI spending is increasing demand for energy, copper, aluminum, cement and other physical assets

• Why North America's natural gas advantage could support a long-term reindustrialization cycle

• Why persistent inflation could force higher interest rates and lower valuation multiples

• Why no competitive moat is permanent, even for today's dominant technology companies

• How passive investing and shorter time horizons can create opportunities for fundamental stock pickers

• Why prolonged downturns can improve industry economics through consolidation and reduced capacity

• Why Bob views himself as an active owner rather than an activist investor

• Why he is skeptical of today's private equity model and its expansion into retirement portfolios

• The NewMarket investment that taught him the cost of selling a great business too early

• Why he thinks individual company research can outperform indexing over the next decade

Timestamps

00:00 Intro
04:02 Grassroots macro and the search for latent earnings power
08:37 Why Bob started his own investment firm
13:00 How AI creates demand for the physical economy
17:59 Why Bob avoids the mega-cap technology companies
22:00 Inflation, interest rates and the valuation risk investors may be missing
26:07 Why no competitive moat is permanent
31:36 How passive investing creates opportunities for stock pickers
36:00 Why Bob believes the "fallen" areas of the market can rise again
40:06 How bad business conditions create better long-term investments
44:39 Active ownership, boards and understanding businesses from the inside
48:59 Why Bob is skeptical of modern private equity
55:15 The biggest loss of his career: selling a winner too early
01:03:32 The one investing lesson Bob would teach everyone

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

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No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

In this episode of The Jim Paulsen Show, Jim explains why weakening labor data, softening inflation, and lagged policy tightening could shift markets from inflation fears toward growth and recession fears. He also breaks down why the AI productivity boom may be overstated, how AI capital spending is supporting the economy, why Treasury yields look too high, and why investors may want to rebalance from new era technology stocks toward old era stocks and bonds.

Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify⁠⁠⁠

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Topics Covered

• Why weak jobs data and benign inflation have changed the outlook for the Federal Reserve

• Labor force contraction, stalled job growth, and the risks facing consumer spending

• Housing affordability, services activity, real income, savings, and signs of economic weakness

• How the stock-bond correlation can reveal a shift from inflation fears to growth and recession fears

• Why Jim expects Fed rate cuts before year-end and sees downside risk for Treasury yields

• How higher oil prices, bond yields, and the dollar can hit stocks and the economy with a lag

• Why today's AI productivity boom may be a mirage rather than a repeat of the 1960s or 1990s

• How AI CapEx, core capital goods orders, and technology stocks are linked

• Why the 10-year Treasury yield may be mispriced relative to growth and inflation

• The widening divide between new era and old era stocks and what it could mean for portfolio allocation

Timestamps

00:00 Jim's outlook: weak jobs, benign inflation, and growth fears
04:11 Labor force rollover and consumer warning signs
09:06 Real income collapse and economic surprise data
13:06 Why bond yields could fall below 4 percent
17:45 Why Jim expects Fed cuts instead of hikes
22:07 How policy tightening hits the economy with a lag
26:16 Why productivity gains can be a recession mirage
30:20 What a true productivity boom looks like
34:38 AI stocks as a leading signal for capital spending
39:08 Why Treasury yields may be mispriced
44:31 Oil, core inflation, and the case for easing
48:32 New era versus old era correlation as a warning
52:54 Why today's AI economy may be more vulnerable than dot-com
57:22 Portfolio allocation takeaways: bonds, old era, and tech

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

T. Rowe Price technology portfolio manager Dom Rizzo joins Jack Forehand and Kai Wu to break down the AI investment cycle, hyperscaler capital spending, semiconductor demand, and why the recent tech selloff may look more like 1998 than the end of the boom. They discuss AI return on investment, OpenAI and Anthropic, open versus closed models, financing the data center buildout, the future of software, labor productivity, and how to construct a global technology portfolio.

Topics covered

• Why Dom sees similarities between the 2026 semiconductor correction and the 1998 selloff

• Why hyperscaler AI CapEx could accelerate from already historic levels

• What cloud revenue growth and operating margins say about AI return on invested capital

• Why end-user productivity is the key test for sustainable AI demand

• Open-weight models versus frontier labs and where AI economic value may accrue

• Why chips, memory, logic semiconductors, TSMC and ASML sit at critical points in the AI value chain

• How equity, debt and operating cash flow could finance the next stage of the data center buildout

• Why semiconductors remain cyclical even in a structurally capital-intensive AI boom

• Why AI agents could turn traditional enterprise software into data pipes

• AI productivity, labor displacement and the case for faster GDP growth

• How Dom thinks about technology portfolio construction, risk factors and global stock selection

Timestamps

00:00 AI, the tech correction and the 1998 comparison
04:07 Why the AI capital spending cycle may only be halfway
12:33 The real test for AI demand: end-user ROI
17:00 Why frontier models may capture most of the economic value
21:23 Where the biggest AI moats and profit pools could emerge
28:12 Financing the AI buildout with equity and debt
36:03 Are semiconductors in a supercycle or still cyclical?
41:43 What AI agents mean for traditional software companies
46:03 AI productivity versus labor displacement
51:01 Building a portfolio for a technology revolution
56:06 Global tech opportunities and Dom's stock-picking framework

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Richard Bernstein and David Rosenberg reunite to debate the Federal Reserve, inflation, the AI investment boom, market bubbles, gold and the case for international diversification. The former Merrill Lynch colleagues examine whether the Fed should raise rates, how AI CapEx is reshaping the U.S. economy, why credit markets may lead the AI trade, what is driving gold, and where investors may find opportunities outside the mega-cap U.S. market.

Topics covered

• Why the Taylor Rule points toward higher rates and why Rosenberg thinks the Fed should not hike

• What slowing GDP growth, productivity and labor costs suggest about underlying inflation

• How AI CapEx and data center spending may be misallocating capital away from housing and the broader economy

• Why the current AI boom differs from the late-1990s technology bubble

• How credit spreads, CDS markets and financing costs could signal trouble in the AI trade before equities do

• What real interest rates, the U.S. dollar and central bank demand mean for gold

• Why Bernstein views gold as a portfolio spare tire rather than a short-term trade

• Why non-U.S. stocks and international markets may offer a better valuation and growth opportunity

• How AI exposure extends beyond the Mag Seven into financials, industrials and utilities

• Why CAPE valuations, leverage, sentiment and market positioning point to a highly speculative U.S. market

• Why diversification becomes most unpopular when investors may need it most

• What Bob Farrell's market rules say about crowded positioning and consensus forecasts

Timestamps

00:00 Introduction
08:31 Why Rosenberg thinks the Fed should not hike
16:02 AI, data centers and capital misallocation
25:08 What is driving gold: real rates, the dollar and central banks
36:11 Why Bernstein sees a secular shift toward non-U.S. stocks
41:41 How AI concentration extends beyond the technology sector
48:31 International diversification as protection from AI concentration
54:06 Bob Farrell's Rule 9 and the danger of consensus
1:00:06 The housing-cycle warning Bernstein and Rosenberg saw before the financial crisis

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Tian Yang, head of research at Variant Perception and portfolio manager of the VPX ETF, explains how investors can use adaptive leading indicators, capital cycle analysis and behavioral signals to navigate a market shaped by AI spending, inflation and government intervention. He breaks down why the macro backdrop remains risk-on, what would signal a true market top, why a Federal Reserve rate hike may still be unlikely and how AI could reshape profits, jobs and portfolio construction.

Variant Perception
https://www.variantperception.com/

Variant Perception Cycle Aware US Equity ETF
https://etf.variantperception.com/

Topics covered

• How first-principles thinking separates causal signals from noisy data

• Why static recession indicators and consumer sentiment have become less reliable

• How Variant Perception combines growth, inflation, policy and liquidity into a Macro Risk Indicator

• Why AI capital spending and low savings rates are supporting economic resilience

• How AI profits could broaden from hardware bottlenecks to adopters and complementary assets

• Why the sovereign technology race may extend the AI investment cycle

• What savings rates, liquidity, leverage and cash settlement reveal about recessions and market tops

• How potential SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI supply could affect public equity markets

• What capital cycle and crowding signals say about semiconductors and hyperscalers

• Why headline inflation may stay high without creating persistent core inflation

• How the K-shaped consumer, labor market and Federal Reserve reform shape the policy outlook

• How AI could widen economic inequality, compress wages and change investment research

• How the VPX ETF uses adaptive sector tilts, stock selection and active risk

Timestamps

00:00 First principles, causal data and leading indicators
04:48 Why traditional recession indicators stopped working
09:00 Building the Macro Risk Indicator
13:02 How AI CapEx is keeping the economy resilient
17:18 Is the AI boom different from past bubbles?
21:32 Why rising savings rates often precede recessions
26:11 Why the market-top warning is amber, not red
30:58 Are semiconductors still cyclical?
36:22 Why an oil shock may not force the Fed to hike
42:12 How Kevin Warsh could reform the Federal Reserve
46:50 The increasingly bifurcated economy
51:11 How AI is changing investment research
55:38 Active risk, playing the game and avoiding forced errors

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Brent Donnelly joins Matt Zeigler to explain how professional traders build a durable edge through risk management, trading psychology, probabilistic thinking, and creative market analysis.

Drawing from his new book, Trade Outside the Box: Advanced Thinking for Professional Traders, Brent breaks down why trading strategies decay, why rationality beats intelligence, how to avoid risk of ruin, and how lessons from poker, behavioral finance, and real-world experience can improve decision-making.

Trade Outside the Box: Advanced Thinking for Professional Traders
https://amzn.to/4h9bi3e

Brent Donnelly on X
https://x.com/donnelly_brent

Spectra Markets
https://www.spectramarkets.com

Topics covered:

• Why fundamentals, technical analysis, behavioral finance, and quantitative methods are necessary but not sufficient for trading success

• How traders can develop an edge by connecting markets to poker, psychology, biology, auto racing, and video games

• Why profitable trading strategies decay as more investors discover and copy them

• How changing volatility regimes force traders to adapt their style and avoid becoming a one-trick pony

• Why mismatching a long-term investment thesis with a short-term stop loss can destroy a good idea

• How trading journals and P&L data help separate normal variance from a broken process

• Why the house money effect can make traders more reckless after large gains

• Why rationality, flexibility, and expected value matter more than credentials or raw intelligence

• How Bayesian thinking helps traders update probabilities and fight confirmation bias

• The difference between independent thinking and blind contrarianism

• Why avoiding risk of ruin, protecting family and health, and defining success beyond money are essential to a sustainable trading career

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction to Brent Donnelly and Trade Outside the Box
04:00 Why smart analysts often produce fully priced trade ideas
08:00 Poker discipline and avoiding boredom trades
12:00 How lead-lag correlation trading lost its edge
16:35 Matching a trade's stop loss to its time horizon
21:00 What trading data reveals about win rates and expected value
25:00 The house money effect and the danger of overearning
29:00 Why rational traders beat smarter traders
33:00 Strong opinions weakly held and Bayesian updating
37:00 Curating a balanced diet of bullish and bearish information
41:00 Using creativity and outside disciplines to find market edge
45:11 Avoiding risk of ruin and the lessons of Jesse Livermore
50:29 The Serenity Prayer and focusing on what traders can control
55:00 Choosing family and health over markets
59:00 Why your first thought may not be your own

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms, or their clients.

On this episode of our new market wrap show Last Call, we examine the hidden rotation beneath calm stock market indexes, including sharp AI and semiconductor volatility, small-cap strength, forced fund liquidations, higher rates and changing Federal Reserve guidance.

Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler are joined by Jim Paulsen, Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba, Cameron Dawson and Dave Nadig to discuss stock market correction risk, the economics of the AI data center buildout, options flows, market leverage, regulation and what could drive volatility next.Follow Last Call on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts⁠

Topics covered

• Why market indexes can hide sharp rotation, dispersion and volatility in semiconductors and high-beta technology stocks

• Jim Paulsen's Policy Pain framework linking oil, Treasury yields, dollar strength and lagged effects on stocks, bonds and economic growth

• Why technology stocks could enter a bear market while old-economy sectors, small caps and value stocks hold up

• Ben Hunt's World War AI thesis comparing the AI infrastructure buildout with inflation-adjusted World War II spending

• How hyperscalers, equity issuance, private credit and government financing could crowd out consumers and businesses

• Why data centers could consume nearly one quarter of U.S. electricity and lead to higher prices, rationing and government intervention

• What the Situational Awareness fund liquidation and Citadel portfolio transaction reveal about forced market flows

• How options correlations and narrow market breadth can separate a technical rebound from a fundamental AI bottom

• Risks from speculative retail investments, weakened regulators, leverage and cyclical semiconductor profit margins

• Why reduced Fed forward guidance could create surprise policy decisions and greater algorithmic market volatility

Timestamps

00:00 Market rotation and AI volatility beneath the indexes04:07 Jim Paulsen on Policy Pain and market vulnerability09:23 Why tightening hurts stocks before helping bonds14:23 Tech bear market risk and a possible leadership shift18:23 Ben Hunt on World War AI, private credit and systemic risk26:00 Data center electricity demand and the energy constraint31:29 Brent Kochuba on the Situational Awareness liquidation36:00 The forced buying behind the AI stock rebound40:00 Why the liquidation bounce may not signal an AI bottom44:00 How forced flows distort fundamental market narratives48:00 Retail investing pitches, liquidity and cycle FOMO52:00 Deregulation by destaffing at the SEC and CFTC56:00 Semiconductor operating leverage and fragile S&P 500 margins01:00:07 Jack's grievance with the YouTube algorithm01:04:29 What happens when the Fed stops giving forward guidance01:08:34 How markets could react to a surprise Fed decision

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:⁠https://excessreturns.co⁠

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

We are excited to announce the launch of a new podcast, Why Am I Reading This Now? with Ben Hunt. Stories and narratives are increasingly shaping markets, and Ben and his team at Perscient have developed a unique system for measuring how those narratives emerge, spread and change.

In each episode, Ben and Matt Zeigler will examine the major issues facing investors through this narrative lens, helping listeners better understand the stories driving markets and what they could mean for the economy, policy and investment outcomes.

We have included this first episode in the Excess Returns feed. To continue receiving new episodes, subscribe to the Why Am I Reading This Now? podcast on all major podcast platforms using the links below.

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Topics covered

• Why AI CapEx and data center construction have become critical drivers of US economic growth
• How hyperscalers are shifting from cash flow financing to debt, equity issuance and private credit
• Why a slowdown in AI infrastructure spending could threaten markets, the economy and the financial system
• How trillions of dollars in AI investment may crowd out consumer credit, business investment and government borrowing
• Why data centers could consume a dramatically larger share of US electricity production
• How energy shortages could lead to higher utility costs, rationing and price controls
• Why the Iran war and higher oil prices may create a lasting increase in global energy costs
• How Perscient tracks the return of bearish AI narratives and growing political opposition to data centers
• Why both political parties may support government ownership, loan guarantees, bailouts and economic stimulus
• How competition with China could become the narrative used to justify greater government control of the AI industry

Timestamps

00:00 Introducing Why Am I Reading This Now? with Ben Hunt
04:00 How debt, equity issuance and private credit are financing AI CapEx
08:06 Data center electricity demand and the energy crowding-out problem
13:21 Why an AI bailout may become politically inevitable
17:30 Oil shifts from a temporary shortage to a structural supply reduction
22:00 The bearish AI narrative returns as political opposition grows
26:00 Government ownership, price controls and the AI competition with China

Rupert Mitchell of Blind Squirrel Macro joins Matt Zeigler to explain how surging AI capital spending, mega-cap share issuance and expensive U.S. technology stocks could reshape global equity leadership. They discuss the case for equal-weight stocks, energy equities, gold, UK small caps, Uzbekistan and Turkey, along with the risk that a surprise Federal Reserve hike could trigger a broader unwind in leveraged markets.

Rupert Mitchell on X
https://x.com/SquirrelMacro

Blind Squirrel Macro
https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com

Topics covered

• Why the S&P 500 versus the rest of the world remains Rupert's chart of truth

• How the Bushy portfolio uses international equities, gold, commodities and hedges as an alternative to a traditional 60/40 portfolio

• Why positive stock-bond correlation has weakened the diversification case for long-duration bonds

• How AI data center spending, mega IPOs and new share issuance could reverse the buyback-driven de-equitization of U.S. markets

• Why Rupert is long the equal-weight S&P 500 and short the Nasdaq 100 as market leadership broadens

• How China's growing power in oil markets may create a price collar that supports energy producers, refiners, midstream companies and offshore services

• What a surprise Federal Reserve hike or death shot could mean for technology stocks, private credit, private equity and leveraged risk assets

• Why deeply discounted UK small and mid-cap stocks may benefit from buybacks, takeovers, pension capital and investment trust activism

• The opportunity in Uzbekistan's privatization program and the role of Templeton in improving governance

• Why Turkey's inflation-tested companies, strategic geography and cheap valuations may offer an attractive emerging-market setup

Timestamps

00:00 Intro
04:00 Bushy portfolio changes across energy, commodities and precious metals
08:54 How AI capital spending and equity issuance threaten the buyback era
13:00 Equal-weight valuations and the long RSP, short QQQ trade
17:02 China's oil price collar and the energy equity re-rating
22:18 The Fed death shot and the danger of an unpriced hike
30:06 Peak populism and the historic valuation gap in UK equities
34:10 M&A, pension capital and UK investment trusts
38:50 Uzbekistan's privatization opportunity
43:39 Turkish equities, inflation and geopolitical leverage
49:13 Why stress-tested businesses may offer better value
53:39 Blind Squirrel Macro and Benny and the Squirrel

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

On the latest 100 Year Thinkers, Robert Hagstrom joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to revisit the 25th anniversary edition of The Warren Buffett Portfolio and explain why volatility is not the same as investment risk.

They discuss concentrated portfolios, active share, business valuation, behavioral finance, complex adaptive systems, and Warren Buffett’s warning that the market’s casino can overwhelm its cathedral.

The Warren Buffett Portfolio – 25th Anniversary Edition
https://amzn.to/3TVXoru

Robert Hagstrom on X
https://x.com/RobertGHagstrom

Equity Compass
https://www.equitycompass.com/

Topics covered

• Why Markowitz’s definition of risk as variance shaped modern portfolio theory

• Why Buffett views permanent capital loss, not volatility, as the real investing risk

• What Hagstrom’s study of 3,000 portfolios revealed about concentration and market outperformance

• The difference between know-something investors and investors better served by indexing

• How benchmark awareness creates closet indexers and weakens active management

• What loss aversion and prospect theory explain about investor behavior

• Why Darwin, William James, and complex adaptive systems offer better models for markets

• Buffett’s cathedral and casino metaphor for business ownership versus speculation

• The El Farol problem, Jim Simons, and why successful market models stop working

• Why options trading, leveraged ETFs, and record single-stock dispersion may be strengthening the casino

• How to evaluate portfolios using cash flow, return on invested capital, and look-through earnings

• Why permanent capital and System 2 thinking are essential for focused investing

Timestamps

00:00 Intro
04:00 Why Markowitz defined risk as variance
11:47 What 3,000 portfolios revealed about concentration
17:17 Know-something versus know-nothing investors
22:23 Kahneman, loss aversion, and modern portfolio theory
26:58 Darwin, pragmatism, and adaptive markets
32:28 Buffett’s cathedral and casino metaphor
37:37 The El Farol problem and why markets resist prediction
42:08 Why investors crave market forecasts
46:16 Why investing is most intelligent when businesslike
51:38 Record stock dispersion, options, and leveraged ETFs
56:00 Measuring portfolio progress through business economics
01:00:43 Why permanent capital enables focus investing
01:04:43 How markets survive widespread investor mistakes

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms, or their clients.