Excess Returns

Jason Hsu, founder and CIO of Rayliant Global Advisors and co-founder of Research Affiliates, joins Excess Returns to discuss the US-China AI race, the economics of AI spending, and what market concentration means for investors. We explore China's energy and open source advantages, opportunities in Chinese stocks, and how factor investing and machine learning can help build more diversified portfolios.

Rayliant Global Advisors
https://rayliant.com

Rayliant on X
https://twitter.com/rayliant

Topics covered:

• Why Jason believes AI safety requires cooperation between the US and China

• How Chinese AI models are closing the gap with US developers

• China's electricity infrastructure and the competitive threat from open source AI

• Where AI profits could accrue across hardware, energy, models and applications

• How chip restrictions are encouraging China to develop domestic capabilities

• Why retail trading creates opportunities and challenges for factor investors in China

• Chinese technology companies, dividend-paying state enterprises and US-China trade

• The AI spending arms race and the concentration risk facing S&P 500 investors

• Momentum crashes, value cycles and how Rayliant uses machine learning to combine factors

• Why advisors' greatest contribution may be helping clients find meaning in their wealth

Timestamps:

00:00 Jason Hsu on AI competition and safety
04:00 How close are Chinese AI models to the US?
08:25 China's energy advantage and open source economics
14:12 Who captures AI profits, and can China catch up in chips?
18:41 Chinese stocks, retail trading and speculation
24:01 China's overlooked opportunities and dividend stocks
28:05 US-China interdependence and the AI spending arms race
33:24 The AI concentration hiding in the S&P 500
37:25 Momentum crashes, value cycles and factor performance
41:54 Machine learning and building multifactor portfolios
48:46 Financial advisors, Jack Bogle and having enough
53:23 Why inefficient markets do not make alpha easy

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

David Rosenberg returns to Excess Returns to explain his bullish case for Treasury bonds, why he expects inflation and economic growth to slow, and the risks he sees in an AI-driven stock market. The Rosenberg Research founder joins Matt Zeigler to discuss consumer spending, Federal Reserve policy, gold, international stocks, and how he translates his economic outlook into a diversified portfolio.

Recorded September 16, 2026, before the Federal Reserve's policy announcement.

David Rosenberg on Twitter
https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie

Rosenberg Research
https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/

Topics covered:

• Why Rosenberg believes markets have priced in too much Fed tightening and Treasury bonds offer an opportunity

• Why he views higher oil prices as a tax on consumers rather than evidence of sustained, broad-based inflation

• How slowing wage growth, falling savings, and the stock market wealth effect shape consumer spending

• How Treasury issuance changes and potential post-election fiscal gridlock could support bonds

• Why AI exposure extends beyond technology stocks into utilities, industrials, and other sectors

• Where he sees opportunities in healthcare, consumer staples, pipelines, European stocks, and Asia

• His model portfolio's allocation to equities, bonds, cash, and commodities

• How gold, central bank buying, and a bearish dollar outlook fit his investment thesis

• Why he is positioning for slower growth without making recession his base case

• What working with portfolio managers taught him about cutting losses and separating conviction from stubbornness

Timestamps:

00:00 Rosenberg's portfolio approach and the Treasury opportunity
05:58 Why an oil shock can weaken consumer spending
10:52 Jobs, wages, and the stock market wealth effect
17:35 Fiscal stimulus, Treasury issuance, and the bond outlook
22:53 AI concentration risk beyond technology stocks
27:10 Why he owns European and Asian equities
31:16 Inside his 50% stocks, 30% bonds model portfolio
36:43 Betting against the inflation consensus
42:41 Gold, central bank reserves, and a weaker dollar
48:56 Recession watch and bear market risks for 2027
53:10 AI correlations and the risks of being fully invested
58:27 Cutting losses and knowing when conviction becomes stubbornness

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Franklin Templeton CEO Jenny Johnson joins Matt Zeigler to explore how AI, blockchain tokenization, and private markets are reshaping investing and asset management. They discuss what these changes mean for individual investors, from personalized portfolios and access to private companies to the concentration risks hiding in passive index funds. Jenny also shares lessons from her journey from intern to CEO, why financial advisors still matter, and why starting early remains her most important investing lesson.

Franklin Templeton
https://www.franklintempleton.com

Topics covered:

• Why AI could create new industries and why learning to use it matters for young professionals

• How Franklin Templeton uses AI agents and why investment decisions still require human judgment

• Building personalized portfolios around retirement, college savings, and other financial goals

• How blockchain, smart contracts, and instant settlement could reduce financial transaction costs

• Tokenized money market funds, digital wallets, and the obstacles to bringing ETFs on-chain

• Why companies stay private longer and what investors miss when they only own public stocks

• Private credit, illiquidity, and the trade-offs involved in expanding access to private markets

• How mega IPOs, AI spending, and changing index composition can increase portfolio concentration

• Balancing shareholders, employees, and clients while investing in a company's long-term future

• The value of financial advisors, staying invested, and giving compounding time to work

Timestamps:

00:00 Jenny Johnson's leadership lessons and path from intern to CEO
06:41 AI job disruption and lessons from earlier technology revolutions
10:42 How young analysts use AI and where personalized investing is heading
15:44 Human judgment, AI agents, and the future of asset management
20:17 How tokenization could lower costs and expand financial access
24:39 Why blockchain adoption is slow and how tokenized ETFs work
29:58 Private company growth, investor access, and liquidity trade-offs
35:20 Mega IPOs, index concentration, and the risks of AI spending
41:23 Franklin Templeton's family legacy and investing for the next generation
46:18 Why financial advisors matter and why investors should start early
51:32 Jenny's hands-on experiments with AI tools

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Jim Paulsen joins Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler on the latest Jim Paulsen Show to explore why booming AI earnings may be masking a weakening U.S. economy, and what that means for stocks, bonds, and Federal Reserve policy. Using 27 charts, he examines stalled job creation, rising oil prices, growing reliance on debt to finance AI investment, and why he expects a sharper correction in technology than in the broader S&P 500.

⁠Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠

⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple Podcasts

Topics covered:

• Why strong S&P 500 earnings hide a widening divide between technology, energy, and the remaining seven sectors.

• Why low unemployment claims may offer false comfort when job creation has stalled.

• Jim's job market misery index and what it suggests about the case for Fed easing.

• How business investment and employment have broken their historical relationship.

• Why weak real disposable income, low savings, and higher oil prices threaten consumer spending.

• How fading economic momentum could push Treasury yields lower despite renewed inflation fears.

• Why a shrinking wall of worry could remove an important source of support for stocks.

• What growth stock leadership, household purchasing power, and ISM services data reveal about market risk.

• How debt-funded AI spending and widening credit spreads change the risks facing technology companies.

• Why extreme stock outperformance versus bonds could matter for portfolio allocation.

• The difference between rising profits per worker and sustainable economic productivity.

• Why Jim expects a tech bear market but a more moderate correction in the broader S&P 500.

Timestamps:

00:00 Why oil, rates, and tight policy worry Jim
05:43 The three-way split hiding beneath strong earnings
09:58 Why low jobless claims may be misleading
16:18 When business investment stops creating jobs
20:48 Can consumer spending outrun real income?
26:01 How the wall of worry has supported stocks
31:44 Investor complacency and a shift toward growth fears
36:58 The disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street
41:35 AI debt financing, credit spreads, and the case for bonds
47:25 Investment per worker and the yield curve's earnings warning
51:52 Profit productivity versus real economic productivity
58:08 Why Jim expects a tech bear market and a broader correction

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Former Fidelity president and MFS chairman Bob Pozen joins Excess Returns to discuss retirement investing, the risks in private credit, and why he favors a 90% stock and 10% cash portfolio for investors who can cover their living expenses without selling stocks.

Drawing on decades in asset management, he shares lessons from Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett, explains why index funds are difficult to beat, and challenges conventional thinking about bonds, Social Security, and corporate earnings reporting.

Bob Pozen's website
https://www.bobpozen.com

Follow Bob Pozen on Twitter
https://x.com/Pozen

Research discussed:

Consequences of Mandatory Quarterly Reporting: The U.K. Experience
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2817120

Rating Without Market Discipline
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6859158

Giving Life to Private (Rated) Credit
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6857958

Topics covered:

• What investors misunderstand about Peter Lynch and how fund liquidity shaped his approach versus Warren Buffett's.

• Lessons from leading Fidelity and rebuilding investor trust at MFS after its trading scandal.

• Why fees, fund size, and market efficiency make large-cap index funds difficult to beat.

• Private equity in 401(k) plans, liquidity constraints, and the problem with instant valuation markups.

• How private credit ratings and affiliated investments can obscure risks on insurance company balance sheets.

• Pozen's proposals for Social Security reform and the consequences of postponing difficult decisions.

• How automatic IRA enrollment could expand retirement savings access for workers without employer plans.

• Why Pozen favors a 90/10 portfolio for certain investors and how spending needs and inheritance goals affect allocation.

• Why quarterly financial reporting and quarterly earnings guidance deserve different treatment.

• The behavioral cost of chasing rallies and selling downturns, plus Pozen's work on AI and personal productivity.

Timestamps:

00:00 Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, and staying the course
05:27 Leading Fidelity and keeping stock funds invested
11:03 Rebuilding trust at MFS after the trading scandal
16:01 Why active managers struggle to beat index funds
20:03 Private equity in 401(k)s and valuation concerns
24:45 Private credit ratings and insurance company risks
29:33 Regulatory gaps and affiliated insurance investments
35:51 Social Security reform and the cost of waiting
40:00 Automatic IRAs for workers without retirement plans
44:09 The case for 90% stocks and 10% cash
50:05 Why quarterly financial reporting matters
55:00 The problem with precise quarterly earnings guidance
59:00 Avoiding emotional market timing and AI productivity tools

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

John Kerschner and Michael Contopoulos of Janus Henderson join Matt Zeigler to explain why persistent inflation and higher interest rates call for a different approach to bond investing. They explore short-duration bonds, AAA CLOs, mortgage-backed securities and how investors can rethink the fixed income allocation in a 60/40 portfolio.

The conversation covers why traditional bond benchmarks may deliver too much interest rate risk for their yield, how ETFs expand access to securitized credit, and why the AI buildout could add to inflation rather than solve it.

High-Conviction Views: The time for short-duration bonds
https://www.janushenderson.com/en-us/advisor/article/high-conviction-views-the-time-for-short-duration-bonds/

Janus Henderson Investors
https://www.janushenderson.com/en-us/advisor/

Topics covered:

• Why deglobalization, fiscal spending and labor constraints could keep inflation and interest rates elevated

• How the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index concentrates interest rate risk and leaves out large parts of the bond market

• How AAA CLOs work, why their coupons float, and why they are different from cash

• Why tight corporate credit spreads may offer insufficient compensation for the risks investors take

• The three jobs of fixed income: safety, income and insurance

• How duration determines whether rising rates can wipe out a bond portfolio's income

• Why bond ETF discounts can reflect price discovery when underlying bonds are not trading

• How Treasury borrowing and AI hyperscaler debt issuance affect bond supply and relative value

• Why AI capital spending, electricity demand, labor shortages and wealth effects can create inflation

• How to rebuild the bond allocation around securitized credit, agency mortgages and the risks in your equity portfolio

Timestamps:

00:00 Rethinking bonds after years of disappointing returns
04:28 Why the forces behind the bond bull market have changed
10:09 The hidden interest rate risk in the Aggregate Bond Index
14:53 AAA CLO ETFs: Floating income, structure and drawdown risk
20:44 Treasury fiscal risk and tight corporate credit spreads
26:16 Moving beyond set-and-forget bond funds
30:45 How duration can overwhelm your bond yield
36:27 Bond ETF liquidity and price discovery during stress
41:11 Treasury borrowing, AI debt and securitized bond supply
46:00 How hyperscaler borrowing can create credit market dislocations
50:29 Four reasons AI could increase inflation
55:56 Rebuilding the 40% bond allocation in a 60/40 portfolio
01:02:00 Municipal bonds, recession protection and balancing equity risk

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Jared Dillian joins Matt Zeigler to discuss The Awesome Portfolio, his approach to asset allocation built around 20% each in stocks, bonds, gold, cash, and real estate. They explore how diversification, annual rebalancing, and managing volatility can help investors reduce financial stress and build a portfolio they can stick with through bear markets.

Jared explains his "life hedge" concept, challenges conventional wisdom about stock market drawdowns, and shares how losing half his net worth during the financial crisis shaped his investing philosophy.

Buy The Awesome Portfolio Book
https://amzn.to/3Tf3of7

Topics covered:

• Why Jared questions putting your entire life savings in the S&P 500

• How the Awesome Portfolio differs from Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio

• Including home equity when measuring your overall asset allocation

• Why volatility and frequent portfolio checking can lead to costly decisions

• The life hedge: protecting against your job and investments declining together

• Why Jared disagrees with Charlie Munger about tolerating large drawdowns

• Index concentration, changing correlations, and the limits of diversification

• The portfolio's historical backtests, including its losses in 2008 and 2022

• Annual rebalancing, cash reserves, inflation protection, and cryptocurrency

• Managing FOMO and taking practical steps toward a less stressful retirement portfolio

Timestamps:

00:00 Jared Dillian's case against an all-stock portfolio
06:33 The five equal allocations in the Awesome Portfolio
11:07 Why "never sell" can become a behavioral trap
15:26 The life hedge: when your paycheck and portfolio fall together
20:38 Risk-adjusted returns and S&P 500 concentration
24:49 Why rising interest rates hurt diversification in 2022
28:51 Backtested losses in 2008 and 2022
34:26 Combining home equity, retirement accounts, and savings
38:58 Cryptocurrency, portfolio distractions, and FOMO
44:31 The Death of Equities and lessons from past crashes
48:44 How diversification could have changed Jared's financial crisis
53:41 First steps toward reducing portfolio risk before retirement

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Cameron Dawson and Dave Nadig join Matt Zeigler on Click Beta to explore how sports betting, leveraged ETFs and speculative behavior are blurring the line between gambling and investing. They also examine AI circular financing, hyperscaler cash flow and corporate disclosure, asking what investors might be missing beneath headline earnings. The conversation closes with baseball, music fandom and the challenge of learning from imperfect role models.

Subscribe to Click Beta on Spotify⁠⁠

⁠⁠Subscribe to Click Beta on Apple Podcasts

Topics covered:

• Why sports betting is becoming a financial planning issue for Gen Z and wealthy families

• How overconfidence and confusion between skill and luck encourage speculative behavior

• Why rapid market recoveries may reinforce risk-taking instead of teaching caution

• How recurring gambling losses can quietly undermine savings and wealth accumulation

• The risks of placing gambling products alongside investments in brokerage apps

• Leveraged ETF innovation, hourly resets and competing approaches to investor protection

• AI circular financing, payment terms, leases and opaque special purpose vehicles

• How one-time investment gains can distort headline earnings and future growth comparisons

• Why less frequent corporate reporting could favor investors with greater resources

• Baseball, emo music, Nirvana merchandise and what makes a meaningful role model

Timestamps:

00:00 Sports betting, ETFs and the gambling economy
05:24 Financial planning after crypto and gambling wins
10:57 Why slow gambling losses can be harder to recognize
16:55 Betting inside brokerage apps and regulatory backlash
21:03 Gambling budgets and the next wave of leveraged ETFs
25:04 AI financial shenanigans and hyperscaler cash flow
29:25 Who benefits from less corporate disclosure?
34:24 Discovering new passions in adulthood: Westerns and baseball
38:30 Hot Topic, Nirvana sweatpants and cultural gatekeeping
43:17 Can band merchandise introduce a new generation to music?
47:26 Keith Morris and the search for meaningful role models
51:34 Learning from imperfect people without idolizing them

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Dan Niles joins Excess Returns to explain why he believes AI is a genuine industrial revolution and a bubble at the same time, with significant opportunity still ahead but growing risks in semiconductors, software, AI CapEx and credit markets. We discuss NVIDIA, OpenAI, Anthropic, China’s semiconductor push, data center politics, AI debt issuance, Fed policy and the downside protection framework Dan uses to navigate technology cycles.

Dan Niles on X
https://x.com/DanielTNiles

Niles Investment Management
https://www.nilesinvestmentmanagement.com

Topics covered:

• Why AI can be both a transformational technology and an investment bubble

• The AI metrics Dan watches: token pricing, token growth, cloud revenue and operating margins

• What the Situational Awareness unwind showed about leverage, forced selling and semiconductor volatility

• Why hyperscaler AI revenue can accelerate even as free cash flow deteriorates

• How data center opposition, electricity constraints and politics could slow the AI buildout

• Where value may accrue across the AI stack and why Anthropic and Google could pressure OpenAI

• Why China’s memory chip expansion could bring semiconductor cyclicality back faster than investors expect

• How AI is reshaping software, including security, systems of record, gaming and usage-based pricing

• Why the shift from free cash flow to debt financing matters for AI CapEx, Treasury yields and credit markets

• Dan’s long-short investment process, Fed outlook, market risk framework and emphasis on downside protection

Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
04:00 The signals Dan watches to know when the AI bubble is peaking
09:12 AI ROI, hyperscaler profits and the problem with negative free cash flow
14:19 Why data center politics could become a major risk to AI growth
21:28 Why semiconductors are still cyclical and China could change the supply picture
25:47 Why smart companies still get bubbles wrong and agentic AI could extend the cycle
30:43 Is software the next major casualty of AI disruption?
35:04 Why video games may be one of software’s safer AI categories
39:23 Can markets absorb the surge in AI debt and equity issuance?
45:28 Dan Niles’ long-short investment process and approach to downside protection
50:45 Why Dan thinks the Fed could raise rates in September
56:38 Why buy-and-hold can fail and downside protection matters

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Ben Hunt joins Matt Zeigler to explain why damaged Fed and Treasury credibility could matter just as four major risks converge across private credit, AI financing, oil and the consumer. They discuss financial repression, rising long-term rates, shadow banking and insurance risk, the AI CapEx growth engine, and why Hunt believes gold may benefit if policymakers keep trying to suppress the price of money.

Subscribe on Spotify⁠

⁠Subscribe on Apple

Topics covered

• Why credibility is a teacup and why policy reputation is difficult to repair once it breaks

• How the Fed's July rate decision changed the market narrative around inflation credibility

• The Four Horsemen: insurance and shadow banking losses, capital crowding out, the Iran war and oil inflation, and a stretched consumer

• Why insurer-funded private credit could become a systemic risk if fraud and losses reach major institutions

• How government borrowing and AI data center financing could push long-term interest rates higher

• Why fading fiscal stimulus, depleted savings and higher energy costs leave the consumer vulnerable

• What financial repression means and how the Fed and Treasury could try to cap rates and prevent major losses

• Why AI investment may be the key source of US economic growth if consumer activity stalls

• How Perscient tracks narrative regimes, virality and shifts in common knowledge across markets

• Why gold can act as an inverse measure of trust in central banks and how Ben is positioning around the risks

Timestamps

00:00 Intro: Credibility is a Teacup
04:00 How the July Fed decision damaged inflation credibility
08:21 The Four Horsemen that could threaten the financial system
14:00 Oil inflation, the Iran war and a stretched consumer
18:39 What financial repression means
23:20 How the Fed and Treasury could try to prevent a systemic crisis
28:21 Why AI CapEx may be the only major source of GDP growth
35:00 When lost Fed credibility became a confirmed market narrative
39:34 Narrative stock versus flow and how bursts can move prices
44:00 The return of bearish AI CapEx narratives
48:09 Why private credit may be easier to can-kick than the 2008 crisis

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.