In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker is joined by Orel Levy of Anek Capital to discuss Cellebrite (ticker: CLBT). The conversation explores Cellebrite’s digital forensics tools, from cracking phones to managing and analyzing data. Orel provides a comprehensive overview of Cellebrite's business model, competitive positioning, and potential for growth. Topics include their shift to a SaaS model, the federal sector's role, AI integration, competitive threats like Palantir, and the company’s broader strategic outlook. They also touch on risks, including execution challenges, management turnover, and potential M&A speculation. Tune in to understand why Cellebrite is at the intersection of technology, law enforcement, and investing.

If you're interested in the CLBT trata call mentioned during the podcast, see: https://www.trytrata.com/clbt____________________________________________________________

[00:00:00] Podcast intro and sponsor mention

[00:03:13] Cellebrite's history and pivot

[00:06:08] Phone cracking explained

[00:07:18] R&D moat and customer stickiness

[00:08:40] Valuation versus growth peers

[00:09:52] SPAC history and misunderstood model

[00:13:41] iPhone cracking and misconceptions[00:15:03] Apple, Google cooperation risk

[00:16:29] Growth potential and market size

[00:21:27] Management turnover and CEO plans

[00:27:38] Sale speculation and strategic fit

[00:30:49] Mission-critical usage example

[00:31:51] Federal budget and deployments

[00:33:52] Event-driven budget growth potential

[00:37:47] Guardian, Pathfinder, cloud ramping

[00:42:58] Long-term risks: execution concerns

[00:50:43] AI: neutral impact for now

[00:53:39] Suncorp ownership and sale pressure

[00:57:46] Ethics and private sector risks

[01:00:00] Wrap-up and future conversations

Links:If you're interested⁠ in the CLBT trata call mentioned during the podcast⁠, see: https://www.trytrata.com/clbt

Yet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast Book Club, host Andrew Walker is joined by Byrne Hobart of The Diff to explore Softwar, the 2003 biography of Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison. Together, they dissect the contradictions of Ellison's public and private personas, Oracle's aggressive sales culture, and the book's surprisingly prescient predictions about tech's future. They reflect on ERP nightmares, Oracle's early brushes with collapse, and its surprisingly fertile alumni network. The conversation probes the blurred line between visionary leadership and red flags, while tracing Ellison’s uncanny resemblance to figures like Elon Musk. From petty footnotes to PR plays, it's a sharp look into one of tech’s most enduring empires.

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[00:00:00] Introduction to the podcast and book.

[00:01:48] Byrne joins the episode.

[00:01:49] Quick disclaimer on investment advice.

[00:02:37] Skipping the boating sections in book.

[00:03:30] Initial thoughts on Oracle in 2003.

[00:04:00] Larry Ellison's personality contradictions.

[00:05:45] Oracle's sales tactics and benchmark claims.

[00:07:00] Predictions on mobile and distributed systems.

[00:08:44] ERP transition challenges explained.

[00:10:03] Reasons to bet against Oracle.

[00:12:04] Oracle’s management style and red flags.

[00:14:23] Intelligence connections and conspiracies.

[00:15:54] Government ID advocacy post-9/11.

[00:17:24] Comparing Larry Ellison to Elon Musk.

[00:19:45] Book’s structure and humorous footnotes.

[00:22:55] Seibel rivalry and Oracle acquisitions.

[00:25:11] PR's role in Oracle’s strategy.

[00:26:40] Market perceptions and quarterly focus.

[00:30:03] Importance of sell-side analysts back then.

[00:31:29] Anecdotes about market cap drops.

[00:33:48] Oracle’s executive alumni shaping tech.

[00:36:23] Differences in tech executive pipelines.

[00:38:51] GE's internal business training system.

[00:41:09] Ellison’s hiring practices and red flags.

[00:44:05] PeopleSoft DOJ case and hypocrisy.

[00:46:43] Safra Katz’s rise at Oracle.

[00:49:19] Oracle’s leadership transition dynamics.

[00:51:54] Book's narrative style and structure.

[00:52:56] Author’s omission of Ellison’s childhood.

[00:55:13] Ellison’s charisma and software predictions.

[00:58:33] Ellison’s lasting influence and vision.

[00:59:45] Tease for next month’s book selection.

Links:Yet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker welcomes back David Bastian of Kingdom Capital to analyze United Natural Foods Inc. (UNFI), a grocery distributor at the center of a complex turnaround story. They examine UNFI’s legacy issues, including its troubled SuperValu merger, the fallout from over-earning during COVID, and a recent cyberattack. David discusses management's new strategic direction, margin normalization efforts, and the implications of UNFI’s critical relationship with Whole Foods and Amazon. They also explore valuation frameworks, industry dynamics, and UNFI’s potential path to sustainable earnings growth under improved leadership.______________________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast and guest introduction[00:02:34] What is UNFI[00:03:45] History and UNFI challenges[00:09:24] Cyberattack and recovery[00:10:47] Impact on Whole Foods[00:14:30] Long-term EBITDA targets[00:18:37] Sell-side doubts[00:21:08] Peer margin comparisons[00:24:19] Amazon relationship[00:30:17] Margin paradox[00:34:02] Business asset value[00:40:21] Return on replacement cost[00:43:37] Inflation effects[00:45:18] Industry consolidation[00:48:58] Board ownership concerns[00:54:58] Final thoughts on UNFI[00:58:47] Simplified supplier agreements[00:59:17] Podcast close and disclaimerLinks:Yet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

In this July 2025 episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker shares his latest market reflections. He opens with sharp takes on the speculative surge in crypto-linked equities and questions about hidden leverage. Andrew dissects the potential rise of a new SPAC bubble and lays out a hedge strategy using SPACs at trust value. He then transitions into a deep dive on pattern recognition in investing—its power, its risks, and when it turns into harmful stubbornness. From Warren Buffett’s historical lens to Talon Energy and personal investing biases, Andrew probes how past experiences shape investor behavior. The episode closes with musings on CEO arrogance and the importance of open dialogue. As always, Andrew invites feedback and thoughtful conversation from listeners.

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[0:00:00] Intro and episode overview

[0:01:21] Sponsor message and host greeting

[0:02:01] Recording issues and July intro

[0:02:54] Casino market and Bitcoin premiums

[0:08:07] Leverage signs and Tesla example

[0:08:56] SPAC bubble and trust value

[0:10:28] Market views and SPAC options

[0:12:58] Pattern recognition in investing

[0:16:58] Buffett’s experience and pattern use

[0:20:58] Pattern vs. stubbornness examples

[0:27:21] Talon Energy hesitation explained

[0:34:03] Overreliance on old investment patterns

[0:37:23] Industry arrogance and founder syndrome

[0:41:36] Why Andrew does these rambles

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

In this solo update, host Andrew Walker revisits his three 2025 stock ideas (disclosure: long all three!): Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Keros Therapeutics (KROS), and Full House Resorts (FLL). He breaks down Sage’s acquisition by SUPN and the chance of a higher bid from Biogen, discusses Keros’ announced capital return, and digs into why Full House Resorts has lagged so far despite promising insider buying and strong project progress. Andrew also highlights why active shareholder engagement still matters and how insider moves can reveal conviction.

For links to the prior podcast ideas and open letter, please see this post: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/midyear-2025-podcast-ideas-updates

Chapters

[00:00:00] Andrew opens midyear update.

[00:01:00] Recaps Sage, Keros, Full House.

[00:07:33] Sage sold, Biogen topping bid?

[00:14:27] Keros capital return progress is slow.

[00:18:44] Full House lagging; insider buying.

[00:27:59] CEO massive buy from ex-wife.

[00:30:30] Refinancing risk key catalyst ahead.

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

In this monthly book club edition of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker is joined by Byrne Hobart of The Diff and Capital Gains to unpack Ray Dalio’s latest book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle. The pair probe Dalio’s sweeping macroeconomic theories, debt cycles, historical analogies, and technology’s role in shaping the future. They scrutinize the credibility of Dalio’s claims, the real-world implications of sovereign debt risks, and the potential misapplications of macro trading skills to macroeconomic policymaking. The conversation winds through AI’s effect on productivity, the staying power of elites through societal upheavals, and even the viability of crypto as a hedge. It's a rich analysis with sharp skepticism and economic nuance.

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[00:00:00] Podcast and guest introduction

[00:01:38] Initial thoughts on Dalio’s book

[00:05:26] Short vs. long debt cycles

[00:06:40] Historical cycle timing critique

[00:07:24] Pre-WWI and 1930s comparison

[00:10:11] Disconnection between theories and globalization

[00:16:25] Institutional trust and economic cycles

[00:18:18] Credibility of Dalio’s theories

[00:21:26] Macro trading vs. macro policy

[00:24:42] Trump-era policy implications

[00:26:19] Foreign debt selling as signal

[00:28:14] Put options in tail events

[00:32:35] Buffett’s strategic puts example

[00:35:32] Technology optimism in final chapter

[00:40:25] AI effects on labor, productivity

[00:45:43] Older professionals using AI

[00:47:00] Book’s global bearish stance

[00:51:22] Historical elite persistence examples

[00:53:45] Bitcoin in crisis scenarios

[01:01:54] Sovereign wealth fund proposal critique

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker is joined by Guowei from the substack "Yummy Century Stocks" for an extensive discussion on EchoStar (SATS). They dig into the company’s complex structure, diving deep into its failing satellite and pay TV segments, and the potential trapped value in its wireless spectrum assets. The conversation unpacks regulatory drama with the FCC, speculation around a Trump Mobile tie-in, and the looming potential for bankruptcy. With both long and short positions from top investors and a potential valuation ranging from zero to $100+ per share, this is one of the market's most fascinating distressed plays.____________________________________________________[00:00:00] Andrew introduces EchoStar and guest[00:02:54] Overview of EchoStar’s three business units[00:06:54] Wireless network specs and performance issues[00:11:36] Realistic market challenges and consumer view[00:17:08] Valuation estimate for SATS spectrum[00:19:42] Pushback on spectrum market and caps[00:22:58] Changing spectrum demand and infrastructure[00:24:45] Three core SATS spectrum bands[00:25:32] AWS-3 and AWS-4 deep dive[00:29:47] FCC’s current investigation and history[00:34:00] Simington’s resignation and FCC politics[00:35:02] Trump intervenes, Trump Mobile theory[00:39:19] Potential regulatory settlement outcomes[00:41:09] Market comps for spectrum valuation[00:44:39] Unique legal nature of spectrum assets[00:47:51] Why bankruptcy could benefit EchoStar[00:50:44] Impact of bankruptcy on FCC issues[00:53:21] Risks to spectrum ownership in court[00:54:52] Equity protection in bankruptcy scenario[00:57:42] Possible strategic paths and constraints[01:00:42] Equity thesis despite complex unlock path[01:04:12] Convert notes vs equity pre-bankruptcy[01:07:00] Market speculation and timing expectations[01:08:30] Bankruptcy analogs and comparison to GGP[01:09:34] Challenges to network scaling and valueLinks:Yet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker welcomes back Bill Chen of Rhizome Partners, one of the platform's most popular and deeply knowledgeable guests in real estate investing. Fresh from attending NAREIT, Bill unpacks trends across the public and private real estate sectors, offering a unique vantage on REIT performance, multifamily fundamentals, and the developing divergence in valuation metrics. The discussion spans topics from rent regulation in New York, to capital allocation discipline among REITs, and dives into lesser-understood niches like grocery-anchored retail and net lease offices. Andrew and Bill blend data with real-time market observations to help listeners better understand value opportunities in today’s real estate landscape.

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[00:00:00] Andrew introduces Bill Chen

[00:01:38] Bill recaps NAREIT conference takeaways

[00:02:11] Public REITs vs private market stress

[00:05:26] Construction collapse, capex outlook

[00:12:18] Sunbelt rent growth and pipeline

[00:21:36] Public REITs IRR and exit caps

[00:27:20] NYC resi optimism vs politics

[00:29:20] Clipper's challenges and NYC outlook

[00:31:01] Sunbelt policy contrasts and rent trends

[00:33:56] Postmortem: REIT investment performance

[00:36:05] Tech and operational edge in REITs

[00:37:11] Resilience, affordability, and dividends

[00:44:14] AI impact on operations and leasing

[00:48:56] Alexander’s, office market bifurcation

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker welcomes back Brian Finn of Findell Capital for his fourth appearance. Brian, owning approximately 10% of Oportun Financial (OPRT), discusses his ongoing proxy battle to reform the company’s board. He explains how Oportun’s shift from a focused lender to an unfocused “fintech empire” led to operational bloat and shareholder destruction. The discussion probes governance failures, board entrenchment, and the recent removal of a high-performing director. Brian also outlines the investment thesis for Opportune, emphasizing its underserved customer base, strong unit economics, and potential for a major turnaround under experienced leadership. _____________________________________________________

[00:00:00] Podcast and guest introduction

[00:00:17] Brian's stake in Opportune

[00:02:03] Overview of Opportune Financial

[00:03:26] Critique of management decisions

[00:04:11] Public campaign and board change

[00:05:32] Legacy board's poor performance

[00:06:15] Cost issues and board pushback

[00:09:42] Operations improved by new directors

[00:10:36] Scott Parker removed from board

[00:12:02] Proxy fight motivations detailed

[00:14:52] Management oversight challenges

[00:16:11] Rebuttal to board's defense

[00:18:01] Governance structure and concerns

[00:21:34] Why Opportune is worth investing

[00:23:25] Opportune unit economics breakdown

[00:27:25] Rate cap policy criticism

[00:30:12] Securitization and interest costs

[00:34:17] October financing explained

[00:38:25] Strategic oversight recommendations

[00:41:01] Nominee Warren's qualifications discussed

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker returns with Aaron Chan from Recurve Capital to explore Cogent Communications (CCOI). Aaron breaks down the legacy internet business, the Sprint wireline acquisition, and the complex financial transformation underway. The conversation highlights CEO Dave Schaeffer’s strategic vision, market dynamics in enterprise telecom, and the network’s long-term potential. They analyze network architecture, discuss operational efficiency, and evaluate capital allocation under heavy leverage. The episode closes with thoughts on competitive threats, structural advantages, and what the future may hold post-Dave.

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[00:00:00] Podcast and guest introduction

[00:02:22] Aaron introduces Cogent business overview

[00:06:51] Legacy network setup and strategy

[00:10:19] Competition and service differentiation

[00:14:36] Sprint network acquisition background

[00:20:35] Challenges with Sprint integration

[00:27:59] Wave business compared to Lumen

[00:35:40] Missed expectations and market reaction

[00:40:17] Dave’s control and RE leverage

[00:48:49] Dividend vs. buyback strategy

[00:53:41] Dave’s succession and exit plan

[00:59:00] Traffic deflation and usage trends

[01:03:17] Pricing strategy and competitive risks

[01:07:54] Cogent's share strategy explained

[01:10:12] Competitive positioning against Lumen

[01:13:29] Core infrastructure value and demand

[01:16:44] Future growth expectations and risks

[01:20:18] Final thoughts on investment case

[01:25:30] Closing remarks and sign-off

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer