In this solo update, host Andrew Walker revisits his three 2025 stock ideas (disclosure: long all three!): Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Keros Therapeutics (KROS), and Full House Resorts (FLL). He breaks down Sage’s acquisition by SUPN and the chance of a higher bid from Biogen, discusses Keros’ announced capital return, and digs into why Full House Resorts has lagged so far despite promising insider buying and strong project progress. Andrew also highlights why active shareholder engagement still matters and how insider moves can reveal conviction.

For links to the prior podcast ideas and open letter, please see this post: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/midyear-2025-podcast-ideas-updates

Chapters

[00:00:00] Andrew opens midyear update.

[00:01:00] Recaps Sage, Keros, Full House.

[00:07:33] Sage sold, Biogen topping bid?

[00:14:27] Keros capital return progress is slow.

[00:18:44] Full House lagging; insider buying.

[00:27:59] CEO massive buy from ex-wife.

[00:30:30] Refinancing risk key catalyst ahead.

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

In this monthly book club edition of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker is joined by Byrne Hobart of The Diff and Capital Gains to unpack Ray Dalio’s latest book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle. The pair probe Dalio’s sweeping macroeconomic theories, debt cycles, historical analogies, and technology’s role in shaping the future. They scrutinize the credibility of Dalio’s claims, the real-world implications of sovereign debt risks, and the potential misapplications of macro trading skills to macroeconomic policymaking. The conversation winds through AI’s effect on productivity, the staying power of elites through societal upheavals, and even the viability of crypto as a hedge. It's a rich analysis with sharp skepticism and economic nuance.

_________________________________________________

[00:00:00] Podcast and guest introduction

[00:01:38] Initial thoughts on Dalio’s book

[00:05:26] Short vs. long debt cycles

[00:06:40] Historical cycle timing critique

[00:07:24] Pre-WWI and 1930s comparison

[00:10:11] Disconnection between theories and globalization

[00:16:25] Institutional trust and economic cycles

[00:18:18] Credibility of Dalio’s theories

[00:21:26] Macro trading vs. macro policy

[00:24:42] Trump-era policy implications

[00:26:19] Foreign debt selling as signal

[00:28:14] Put options in tail events

[00:32:35] Buffett’s strategic puts example

[00:35:32] Technology optimism in final chapter

[00:40:25] AI effects on labor, productivity

[00:45:43] Older professionals using AI

[00:47:00] Book’s global bearish stance

[00:51:22] Historical elite persistence examples

[00:53:45] Bitcoin in crisis scenarios

[01:01:54] Sovereign wealth fund proposal critique

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker is joined by Guowei from the substack "Yummy Century Stocks" for an extensive discussion on EchoStar (SATS). They dig into the company’s complex structure, diving deep into its failing satellite and pay TV segments, and the potential trapped value in its wireless spectrum assets. The conversation unpacks regulatory drama with the FCC, speculation around a Trump Mobile tie-in, and the looming potential for bankruptcy. With both long and short positions from top investors and a potential valuation ranging from zero to $100+ per share, this is one of the market's most fascinating distressed plays.____________________________________________________[00:00:00] Andrew introduces EchoStar and guest[00:02:54] Overview of EchoStar’s three business units[00:06:54] Wireless network specs and performance issues[00:11:36] Realistic market challenges and consumer view[00:17:08] Valuation estimate for SATS spectrum[00:19:42] Pushback on spectrum market and caps[00:22:58] Changing spectrum demand and infrastructure[00:24:45] Three core SATS spectrum bands[00:25:32] AWS-3 and AWS-4 deep dive[00:29:47] FCC’s current investigation and history[00:34:00] Simington’s resignation and FCC politics[00:35:02] Trump intervenes, Trump Mobile theory[00:39:19] Potential regulatory settlement outcomes[00:41:09] Market comps for spectrum valuation[00:44:39] Unique legal nature of spectrum assets[00:47:51] Why bankruptcy could benefit EchoStar[00:50:44] Impact of bankruptcy on FCC issues[00:53:21] Risks to spectrum ownership in court[00:54:52] Equity protection in bankruptcy scenario[00:57:42] Possible strategic paths and constraints[01:00:42] Equity thesis despite complex unlock path[01:04:12] Convert notes vs equity pre-bankruptcy[01:07:00] Market speculation and timing expectations[01:08:30] Bankruptcy analogs and comparison to GGP[01:09:34] Challenges to network scaling and valueLinks:Yet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker welcomes back Bill Chen of Rhizome Partners, one of the platform's most popular and deeply knowledgeable guests in real estate investing. Fresh from attending NAREIT, Bill unpacks trends across the public and private real estate sectors, offering a unique vantage on REIT performance, multifamily fundamentals, and the developing divergence in valuation metrics. The discussion spans topics from rent regulation in New York, to capital allocation discipline among REITs, and dives into lesser-understood niches like grocery-anchored retail and net lease offices. Andrew and Bill blend data with real-time market observations to help listeners better understand value opportunities in today’s real estate landscape.

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[00:00:00] Andrew introduces Bill Chen

[00:01:38] Bill recaps NAREIT conference takeaways

[00:02:11] Public REITs vs private market stress

[00:05:26] Construction collapse, capex outlook

[00:12:18] Sunbelt rent growth and pipeline

[00:21:36] Public REITs IRR and exit caps

[00:27:20] NYC resi optimism vs politics

[00:29:20] Clipper's challenges and NYC outlook

[00:31:01] Sunbelt policy contrasts and rent trends

[00:33:56] Postmortem: REIT investment performance

[00:36:05] Tech and operational edge in REITs

[00:37:11] Resilience, affordability, and dividends

[00:44:14] AI impact on operations and leasing

[00:48:56] Alexander’s, office market bifurcation

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker welcomes back Brian Finn of Findell Capital for his fourth appearance. Brian, owning approximately 10% of Oportun Financial (OPRT), discusses his ongoing proxy battle to reform the company’s board. He explains how Oportun’s shift from a focused lender to an unfocused “fintech empire” led to operational bloat and shareholder destruction. The discussion probes governance failures, board entrenchment, and the recent removal of a high-performing director. Brian also outlines the investment thesis for Opportune, emphasizing its underserved customer base, strong unit economics, and potential for a major turnaround under experienced leadership. _____________________________________________________

[00:00:00] Podcast and guest introduction

[00:00:17] Brian's stake in Opportune

[00:02:03] Overview of Opportune Financial

[00:03:26] Critique of management decisions

[00:04:11] Public campaign and board change

[00:05:32] Legacy board's poor performance

[00:06:15] Cost issues and board pushback

[00:09:42] Operations improved by new directors

[00:10:36] Scott Parker removed from board

[00:12:02] Proxy fight motivations detailed

[00:14:52] Management oversight challenges

[00:16:11] Rebuttal to board's defense

[00:18:01] Governance structure and concerns

[00:21:34] Why Opportune is worth investing

[00:23:25] Opportune unit economics breakdown

[00:27:25] Rate cap policy criticism

[00:30:12] Securitization and interest costs

[00:34:17] October financing explained

[00:38:25] Strategic oversight recommendations

[00:41:01] Nominee Warren's qualifications discussed

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker returns with Aaron Chan from Recurve Capital to explore Cogent Communications (CCOI). Aaron breaks down the legacy internet business, the Sprint wireline acquisition, and the complex financial transformation underway. The conversation highlights CEO Dave Schaeffer’s strategic vision, market dynamics in enterprise telecom, and the network’s long-term potential. They analyze network architecture, discuss operational efficiency, and evaluate capital allocation under heavy leverage. The episode closes with thoughts on competitive threats, structural advantages, and what the future may hold post-Dave.

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[00:00:00] Podcast and guest introduction

[00:02:22] Aaron introduces Cogent business overview

[00:06:51] Legacy network setup and strategy

[00:10:19] Competition and service differentiation

[00:14:36] Sprint network acquisition background

[00:20:35] Challenges with Sprint integration

[00:27:59] Wave business compared to Lumen

[00:35:40] Missed expectations and market reaction

[00:40:17] Dave’s control and RE leverage

[00:48:49] Dividend vs. buyback strategy

[00:53:41] Dave’s succession and exit plan

[00:59:00] Traffic deflation and usage trends

[01:03:17] Pricing strategy and competitive risks

[01:07:54] Cogent's share strategy explained

[01:10:12] Competitive positioning against Lumen

[01:13:29] Core infrastructure value and demand

[01:16:44] Future growth expectations and risks

[01:20:18] Final thoughts on investment case

[01:25:30] Closing remarks and sign-off

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker speaks with Ben Kelleran of Kontrarian Korner to discuss Sable Offshore, a company attempting to revive the Santa Ynez oil unit off the California coast. They explore the high-stakes nature of this investment, dissect the complex legal battles with California regulators, and assess the upside potential of the project if full production is achieved. The conversation covers Sable's SPAC history, economics, leadership, refinancing plans, and what needs to happen for the company to fully restart operations and generate significant returns.

______________________________________________________

[00:00:00] Introduction and sponsor message

[00:01:59] Guest Ben Kalleran joins

[00:03:02] Overview of Sable Offshore

[00:04:15] SPAC history and asset deal

[00:06:23] Legal/regulatory hurdles explained

[00:09:12] Why Exxon sold the asset

[00:12:32] Sable’s CEO and management

[00:15:13] Current production status

[00:17:13] Economics and ramp potential

[00:20:46] Valuation compared to peers

[00:24:02] Equity raise explained

[00:27:49] Debt refinancing plans[00:29:56] Legal timeline expectations

[00:34:14] Fire Marshal’s role discussed

[00:41:12] Takings claim details[00:43:40] All-clear signal for investors

[00:47:56] Why O&G funds are hesitant

[00:49:57] Key dates and next steps

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

In this edition of the Yet Another Value Podcast Book Club, host Andrew Walker reunites with Byrne Hobart of The Diff to revisit The Snowball, Alice Schroeder’s biography of Warren Buffett. Triggered by Buffett’s recent retirement, the two reflect on how their views have evolved since first reading the book in their 20s. They unpack Buffett’s complex personal life, his early financial maneuvers, near-catastrophic risks, and lasting investment philosophies. Key discussions include Buffett’s detached family dynamics, calculated leverage, deep value tactics, and overlooked geopolitical caution. With a balance of admiration and critique, Andrew and Byrne present a thoughtful, analytical take on the man often mythologized as America's greatest investor.

______________________________________________________________________

[00:00:00] Podcast intro and book overview

[00:02:05] First impressions of Snowball reread

[00:04:28] Buffett’s emotional and family struggles

[00:05:57] His early business brilliance questioned

[00:08:41] Risks nearly tanked early ventures

[00:10:17] Byrne reflects on insurance troubles

[00:13:44] Buffett’s dual investing motivations

[00:15:27] Shady dynamics of Buffett’s PA

[00:17:45] Hustling to raise initial capital

[00:21:12] Best wins: control and distress

[00:23:36] Early Buffett vs modern strategies

[00:26:54] Why he avoided foreign stocks

[00:28:17] Could modern Buffett act similarly?

[00:30:52] Gray areas in early arbitrage

[00:33:57] Incentives, risk, and bad bets

[00:35:22] Buffett’s paradoxical driving style

[00:36:51] Solomon drama and reputational play

[00:40:33] Was Solomon really near failure?

[00:43:36] Role of Buffett’s presence in bailout

[00:45:10] LTCM: Buffett’s ultimate near-miss

[00:49:40] Snowball ends during 2008 crisis

[00:50:52] Experience shapes Buffett’s crisis style

[00:53:31] Is he great at market timing?

[00:56:14] Tough negotiator in private deals

[01:01:34] Reconciling bearish macro with buys

Links

Yet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker speaks with Darren McLean of Muddy Waters about investing in the mining sector. Darren shares how informational edges and a deep understanding of data can yield outsized returns in a space often overlooked by generalists. They discuss the inefficiencies in mining markets, the value of unconventional data analysis, and why mining offers compelling alpha for those willing to do the work. Darren also explores the evolution of mining capital, the brain drain in the industry, and the outsized rewards of discovering and developing world-class assets. Tune in to uncover the realities of resource investing and how expertise can change the game.

 _________________________________________

[00:00:00] Andrew introduces podcast and Darren McLean

[00:03:15] Why Darren sees alpha in mining

[00:04:50] Examples of unconventional data collection

[00:07:46] Darren discovers major inefficiency firsthand

[00:10:23] Lack of diligence in asset qualification

[00:15:51] The post-China supercycle mining collapse

[00:20:57] Why mining offers inevitable investment returns

[00:24:03] The Bre-X scandal and manipulation

[00:27:42] Why supermajors avoid early-stage projects

[00:31:26] When site visits are essential

[00:38:47] Brain drain and generational void in mining

[00:39:18] Can generalists invest in mining successfully?

[00:43:17] Montage Gold: A re-rate case study

[00:46:17] Value of strong reputations and strategic entry

[00:51:13] Darren’s track record and strategy success

[00:53:36] Why mining gives clear investment feedback

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker speaks with Nic Bustamante, founder of FinTool, an AI-powered platform designed for equity analysts and investors. They probe how AI is transforming investment workflows, from memo creation to screening and qualitative analysis. Nic shares examples of institutional adoption, discusses nuanced challenges like bias in management conversations, and forecasts how AI could evolve investor roles. Whether you're deeply entrenched in AI or just starting out, this episode provides grounded insights into its growing role in finance.

______________________________________________________________________

[00:00:00] Andrew introduces podcast and guest

[00:01:50] Nic explains AI task delegation

[00:04:10] Home Depot memo AI example

[00:06:59] Uploading memos to train AI

[00:08:13] Pattern matching with past investments

[00:10:39] Small sample size challenges

[00:13:10] Buffett’s approach vs. LLM potential

[00:16:08] Investing skill shifts with AI

[00:18:00] Qualitative work amplified by AI

[00:21:19] Gumshoe research vs. AI insights

[00:23:21] Amplifying analyst strengths with AI

[00:25:59] AI freeing up research time

[00:27:37] Future of autonomous investment agents

[00:30:10] Training AI with personal track record

[00:31:59] Data diversity needed for edge

[00:33:38] Qualitative investing with AI portfolios

[00:36:02] AI advantages in news trading

[00:37:36] Losing insight through automation

[00:39:21] Hybrid strategy using AI summaries

[00:41:40] Identifying non-standard compensation

[00:42:53] Spotting off-cycle stock grants

[00:45:36] Edge cases needing human oversight

[00:47:48] Tesla and extreme market narratives

[00:49:22] Fragility of company valuations

[00:51:16] Reliability of company filings

[00:53:31] Expanding Fintool’s data sources

[00:54:11] When and why to upload documents

[00:56:25] Private data and unique uploads

[00:58:14] Bias risk from selective inputs

[00:59:38] Recording calls for richer context

[01:00:23] Generating insightful questions with AI

[01:01:35] Framing management conversations for AI

[01:02:49] Extracting insight through competitor focus

[01:03:46] Using peers to understand companies

[01:04:43] Keeping pace with fast AI evolution

[01:07:02] AI as necessary but not sufficient

Links:

Yet Another ValueBlog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legaldisclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

FinTool:https://fintool.com/