Yet Another Value Podcast

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker is joined by returning guest Chad Garcia to discuss LandBridge and the broader Permian Basin ecosystem. Chad outlines how land-based royalty models differ from traditional energy investments, highlighting surface rights, produced water, and infrastructure as key drivers. The conversation covers LandBridge’s growth through pore space expansion, strategic land acquisitions, and its relationship with WaterBridge. They also examine valuation differences versus peers like TPL, the role of data centers in West Texas, and why the market may be underestimating future cash flow. The episode concludes with an update on Secure Energy’s acquisition and its implications for the waste infrastructure thesis.

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[00:00:00] Introduction and Chad Garcia returns

[00:04:07] LandBridge overview and investment thesis

[00:05:26] History of land royalty businesses

[00:08:57] TPL business model breakdown

[00:13:21] LandBridge business and revenue streams

[00:16:11] Valuation comparison versus TPL

[00:17:21] Market skepticism and short thesis

[00:20:59] Incremental pore space growth potential

[00:24:27] Sponsor ownership and insider alignment

[00:26:50] Structure and related party concerns

[00:29:12] Acquisition strategy and value creation

[00:31:30] Strategic land positioning explained

[00:36:01] Competitive advantages in pore space

[00:39:37] Data center opportunity in Permian

[00:43:38] Challenges to data center deployment

[00:46:42] Valuation framework and growth outlook

[00:48:36] LandBridge versus WaterBridge comparison

[00:49:31] Secure Energy acquisition overview

[00:51:06] Waste thesis validation discussion

[00:55:35] Reaction to acquisition valuation

[00:58:16] Market education still ongoing

[01:01:12] Closing thoughts and disclaimer

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker speaks with Marcelo Lima of Heller House Capital about the "SaaSpocalypse". Marcelo shares his perspective from years of following software companies, arguing that fears around AI disrupting SaaS are overblown. They examine whether AI tools threaten incumbents like Salesforce or instead strengthen them through faster product development. The discussion covers valuation compression, enterprise software moats, customer behavior shifts, and the role of AI as infrastructure. Andrew also raises concerns about disruption risks, insider signals, and workforce changes, leading to a debate on whether this moment represents risk or opportunity.

Marcelo's memos on software

Memo 1: https://mailchi.mp/hellerhs/opportunities-in-software

Memo 2: https://mailchi.mp/hellerhs/opportunities-in-software-part-ii

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[00:00:00] Introduction and SaaS apocalypse topic

[00:02:24] Disclaimer and setup discussion

[00:03:26] SaaS selloff and market reaction

[00:07:58] AI disruption concerns raised

[00:10:09] Valuation compression and risk pricing

[00:14:24] Salesforce adoption timing shifts

[00:16:09] Incumbents’ advantage and feedback loops

[00:20:57] Headless software and interface changes

[00:22:29] Backend value versus frontend control

[00:27:02] Historical analogy with Slack usage

[00:29:22] Insider buying skepticism discussion

[00:34:36] Power law dynamics in SaaS

[00:35:53] Company earnings and AI impact

[00:36:36] Adobe Lightroom AI example

[00:40:11] Bloomberg replacement with AI tools

[00:42:25] AI tooling limitations and costs

[00:46:02] Bugs and reliability challenges

[00:47:24] Preferred SaaS companies discussed

[00:51:28] Stock compensation and dilution concerns

[00:55:59] AI productivity and hiring dynamics

[00:56:27] Opposing view on engineer demand

[00:59:16] AI increasing work intensity

[01:00:23] Enterprise software reliability moat

[01:04:49] AI as infrastructure layer

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker speaks with Tolu Bukola from Aganju Capital about DraftKings and the growing threat from prediction markets. Tolu explains DraftKings’ business model, highlighting both sports betting and the expanding iGaming segment. The discussion focuses heavily on regulatory risks, including how prediction markets operate and why they may face legal challenges. They examine potential outcomes if regulation changes, how market share could shift, and what that means for DraftKings’ long-term economics. The episode also covers valuation perspectives and the role of government intervention in shaping the industry’s future.

You can see Tolu's DKNG write up here

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[00:00:00] Podcast introduction and guest overview

[00:00:33] DraftKings and prediction markets focus

[00:03:21] DraftKings business and history explained

[00:05:26] Prediction markets model and mechanics

[00:07:33] Market reaction and investor behavior

[00:09:14] iGaming growth and profitability discussion

[00:11:09] iGaming competition and market structure

[00:14:55] DraftKings execution and product strengths

[00:16:02] Prediction markets as key risk

[00:17:34] Product appeal and investor bias

[00:18:57] Betfair comparison and market share

[00:20:20] Cultural shifts and trading behavior

[00:22:12] Early impact on sportsbook data

[00:23:12] Market share uncertainty discussion

[00:24:38] Government incentives and regulation

[00:26:25] Why Betfair remained small

[00:29:31] Pricing differences and fee structure

[00:31:32] Complexity of sportsbook operations

[00:32:38] Regulatory advantages of prediction markets

[00:34:43] Insider trading and integrity concerns

[00:37:04] Legal paths and regulatory outcomes

[00:39:17] CFTC role and enforcement issues

[00:41:37] Timing risks and market share shift

[00:42:56] Long-term investment thesis

[00:44:23] Valuation framework and upside case

[00:48:40] DraftKings competing in prediction markets

[00:49:55] Parlay economics and profitability

[00:51:24] Regulatory risks beyond prediction markets

[00:53:30] Government incentives and taxation

[00:54:24] Supreme Court outlook and legal stance

[00:55:56] Native American tribes involvement

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker shares his April monthly ramblings, covering a range of investing topics top of mind. He examines the recent selloff in SaaS companies and why they may not be as attractive as they appear. Andrew explores the idea of hedging against AI disruption using large-cap tech options, while also questioning how AI and pattern recognition could reshape investing. He reflects on the balance between experience and laziness in decision-making and closes with a personal discussion on the mental challenges of missing major investment opportunities.

Check out fiscal.ai here: fiscal.ai/?via=yav

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[00:00:00] Podcast introduction and monthly ramblings

[00:01:02] Call for ratings and subscriptions

[00:01:37] Sponsor discussion and product usage

[00:02:40] Overview of April discussion topics

[00:04:35] SaaS selloff and valuation concerns

[00:07:10] AI impact on SaaS demand

[00:08:03] Software terminal value concerns

[00:08:54] SaaS as difficult investment category

[00:10:16] Importance of differentiated investment edge

[00:12:09] AI risks to investing careers

[00:13:32] Idea of hedging AI exposure

[00:14:29] Meta stock option implications

[00:15:54] Rationale for big tech hedges

[00:17:18] Thoughts on leap options strategy

[00:18:33] Pattern recognition in investing

[00:20:09] When pattern recognition becomes harmful

[00:21:35] Balancing experience versus laziness

[00:22:21] AI and pattern recognition limitations

[00:23:33] Market adaptation to investor behavior

[00:25:08] Potential AI investing weaknesses

[00:26:48] Using AI tools in research

[00:28:36] Emotional challenges in investing

[00:29:18] Missed Avis investment opportunity

[00:30:24] Frustration from missed gains

[00:31:08] Balancing emotions and discipline

[00:32:28] Closing remarks and sign-off

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker speaks with Jingshu Zhang from Guinea Value about Fiserv (FISV) and the broader payments sector. They examine the recent drawdown across payment companies, addressing concerns around AI disruption, regulation, and macro pressures. Jingshu outlines Fiserv’s business structure across financial institutions and merchant solutions, while detailing the impact of leadership changes and operational missteps under prior management. The discussion highlights the ongoing strategic reset, new executive hires from JPMorgan, and extensive on-the-ground research into Clover’s positioning. They also debate capital allocation, insider alignment, activist involvement, and valuation, exploring whether Fiserv represents a turnaround opportunity or a declining legacy asset.

See Shu's substack here: https://jingshu.substack.com/

See Trata's FISV transcript here: https://www.trata.com/fisv

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[00:00:00] Podcast intro and guest background

[00:03:56] Payments sector under broad pressure

[00:05:32] Market fears impacting payment companies[00:06:51] AI risks debated in payments

[00:11:38] Structural advantages protect payment networks

[00:12:49] Capital allocation concerns across peers

[00:17:19] Fiserv business segments overview

[00:18:59] Leadership change and prior mismanagement

[00:24:23] Strategic reset and growth normalization

[00:27:49] Variant perception and investment thesis

[00:28:50] New executive team and talent inflow

[00:34:55] Clover positioning versus competitors

[00:36:20] Field research from restaurant interviews

[00:42:01] Valuation framework and earnings outlook

[00:46:14] Insider alignment and incentives discussion

[00:53:34] Organizational culture and employee sentiment

[00:58:30] Activist involvement and strategic options

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Sean Emory of Avory & Co analyzes Clear Security, a biometric identity platform operating in airports nationwide. They examine the company’s subscription model, competitive positioning against TSA and airlines, and the impact of recent TSA disruptions on demand. The discussion covers Clear’s pricing power, partnerships with credit card providers like Amex, and the durability of its airport footprint. Sean also outlines a developing enterprise identity segment and its potential role in future growth. The conversation addresses valuation, risks, and whether Clear’s moat can sustain long-term returns. ___________________________________________________________________

[00:00:00] Andrew introduces Clear Security debate

[00:03:54] Clear explained: biometric airport platform

[00:07:11] Growth limits and line congestion[

00:10:00] TSA PreCheck economics and strategy

[00:14:04] Competition from TSA and airlines

[00:18:15] Airport partnerships and revenue sharing

[00:23:12] Market missing enterprise identity opportunity

[00:28:48] Debate on enterprise business significance

[00:34:11] TSA disruption impact on stock

[00:39:36] Valuation and growth assumptions

[00:43:24] Pricing power and customer behavior

[00:49:21] Amex partnership risks and dynamics

[00:56:12] Capital allocation and cash usage

[01:00:56] Long-term identity and AI implications

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker is joined by Andy Summers, CIO of Summers Value, to discuss Theravance (TBPH; disclosure: long). Both share their perspectives as shareholders while examining the company’s setup following a failed Phase 3 trial. They break down Theravance’s remaining asset, the COPD drug Yupelri, and its long-term royalty potential. The discussion covers the company’s balance sheet strength, cost reductions, and ongoing strategic review process. Andy outlines valuation assumptions, including U.S. royalties, China opportunity, and tax attributes, while also assessing potential buyers and deal dynamics. They also explore downside scenarios if a sale does not occur and why the situation presents an asymmetric risk-reward profile.

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[00:00:00] Podcast introduction and sponsor mention

[00:02:41] Overview of Theravance business model

[00:05:02] Phase three failure stock decline

[00:06:56] Activist involvement and ownership concentration

[00:09:01] Strategic review process and acceleration

[00:09:49] Breakdown of balance sheet and cash

[00:12:49] Discussion on downside protection and sizing

[00:14:11] Yupelri drug positioning and growth

[00:15:59] Patent protection timeline through 2039

[00:17:13] Valuation of royalty stream

[00:18:08] Sum-of-parts valuation discussion

[00:18:49] China opportunity and royalty upside

[00:24:22] Strategic buyers and acquisition dynamics

[00:28:22] Concerns about limited bidding competition

[00:30:57] Potential alternative buyers and synergies

[00:35:08] What market may be missing

[00:35:57] Ireland tax asset potential value

[00:38:03] Scenario if company not sold

[00:41:30] Potential management change outcomes

[00:43:22] Asymmetric risk reward summary

[00:44:24] Timing expectations for potential deal

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker is joined by Roderick van Zuylen of Nightwatch to analyze Marex (MRX), a futures commission merchant operating in a consolidated financial infrastructure space. Roderick explains how Marex facilitates derivatives trading for clients like airlines and hedge funds, while benefiting from rising trading volumes and industry consolidation. The discussion covers Marex’s strong returns on equity, acquisition-driven growth strategy, and competitive positioning versus peers like StoneX. They also address risks, including credit exposure, interest rate sensitivity, and a recent short report. The episode highlights why Marex may continue compounding earnings through both organic and inorganic growth.

Roderick's twitter: roojoo3

Night Watch's website: NightWatchIM.com

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[00:00:00] Podcast introduction and guest overview

[00:03:56] What Marex actually does

[00:05:05] Industry consolidation and competitors

[00:07:43] Credit risk and downside scenarios

[00:10:06] FCM role explained simply

[00:11:49] Why ROEs are high

[00:13:57] Acquisition-driven growth strategy

[00:15:12] Market mispricing and valuation

[00:17:24] Private equity overhang concerns

[00:19:21] M&A execution and integration

[00:22:28] Switching costs and customer stickiness

[00:24:24] Why acquisitions are cheap

[00:26:31] Industry structure and limited buyers

[00:28:19] Volatility and revenue dynamics

[00:29:46] Goldilocks volatility discussion

[00:32:59] Buybacks and capital allocation

[00:34:32] Short report overview

[00:35:11] Key allegations addressed

[00:38:29] Cash flow concerns explained

[00:41:10] Company response to short report

[00:42:28] Real-world business validation

[00:43:41] Valuation and upside potential

[00:45:43] Key risks and interest rates

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker returns with his monthly solo ramblings covering several themes shaping current markets. He starts by discussing recent volatility and why markets feel inconsistent despite relatively modest index declines. Andrew then explores how long-term tailwinds in software and growth investing may have influenced investor track records over the past decade. He also revisits his three-year rule for evaluating stagnant investments, examining its limitations in cyclical sectors. The episode closes with a discussion on position sizing, emphasizing the need to re-underwrite positions after large price moves and avoid inertia when fundamentals change.

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[00:00:00] Introduction and volatile market overview

[00:00:47] Software investing and track record concerns

[00:01:40] Three-year rule and exceptions

[00:01:56] Position sizing after major moves

[00:05:08] Markets feel inconsistent and strange

[00:08:04] SaaS and growth investing tailwinds

[00:09:43] Track records shaped by favorable cycles

[00:13:49] Revisiting and questioning three-year rule

[00:15:58] Cyclical tailwinds impacting outcomes

[00:17:00] Value creation versus timing importance

[00:19:49] Position sizing mistakes and inertia

[00:22:52] Re-underwriting after losses

[00:24:15] Risk management and cost limits

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker speaks with Adam May, a physician, dermatologist, and biotech investor, about how he built an edge in small- and mid-cap biotech. Adam walks through his path from medical school investing to launching a small biotech fund during the 2021 peak, then explains how he sources ideas, studies trial data, and looks for situations where the market is missing something important. The conversation focuses on NKTR and ABVX, including trial design, maintenance data, market skepticism, buyout setups, and how Adam thinks about risk, beta, and asymmetric upside in biotech.

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[00:00:00] Andrew introduces Adam

[00:02:44] Adam’s biotech investing background

[00:07:16] Alpha versus biotech beta

[00:09:51] Finding edge in biotech

[00:17:01] How Adam sources ideas

[00:20:49] Handling concentrated biotech positions

[00:22:59] Biotech drawdown created opportunities

[00:24:49] NKTR thesis and setup

[00:27:53] Lilly data analysis mistake

[00:29:34] Why drugs miss patients

[00:30:34] Eczema need remains large

[00:33:55] Trial nuance drove conviction

[00:36:11] Reverse split scared investors

[00:37:14] NKTR rerating after data

[00:41:21] Why maintenance data mattered

[00:43:32] Buyout versus commercialization path

[00:45:17] Alopecia setup in NKTR

[00:52:25] ABVX background and skepticism

[00:55:00] Maintenance data built conviction

[00:58:54] The killer ABVX slide

[01:01:50] Why ABVX looks acquirable

[01:08:11] ABVX maintenance data ahead

[01:11:27] Andrew closes the episode

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/