Yet Another Value Podcast

Amadeus $AMS is down roughly 25% because the market lumped it in with the SaaS names AI is supposed to gut. Team Amadeus, Pershing Square Challenge finalists, argue it's the opposite: a deterministic, mission-critical monopoly that AI makes more valuable, not less. We dig into the 50-year-old systems that planes literally can't take off without, why the GDS is the wrong job for an LLM, the Sabre and Constellation Software angle, and what the stock is actually worth.

Full pitch deck (~75 pages): https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/5bwef8mz2kplx2sub598w/PSC_AMS_LONG_vSent.pdf?rlkey=x5g0v7t1qk8hpg00ewix95hn3&st=rq9nzl4h&dl=0

This episode is brought to you by Trata. Trata is two investors who get on an anonymized call and talk through the real issues in a stock, bull-to-bull, bear-to-bear, or just getting up to speed. If you like this podcast, you'll like Trata. Check it out at trata.com

Chapters:

00:00 Why Amadeus landed on my radar

01:00 Sponsor: Trata

02:39 Meet Team Amadeus (Pershing Square Challenge finalists)

05:20 What Amadeus actually does: the toll booth on global travel

09:07 The AI fear that broke the stock

11:13 Is it actually cheap? Valuation and stock comp

15:26 Why Amadeus tops the AI-risk matrix

16:32 Air IT Solutions: the SAP of airlines

22:59 The Microsoft AI director who bet against AI eating this

24:15 Tech-debt pushback and the JFK field trip

29:09 Sabre, Constellation Software, and the monopoly complaint

33:16 How Amadeus won share during COVID

34:21 The air-distribution network effect

35:22 Why LLMs are the wrong tool for the GDS

39:50 The $1B biometrics acquisition

43:03 Google, Gemini, and the uptime math

45:47 Fair value and the bull case nobody's pricing

49:01 Amadeus as an AI beneficiary

51:02 Closing thoughts

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

A market that refuses to go down, AI coming for the investor's job, and MicroStrategy quietly becoming the entire preferred-equity market. Andrew's monthly ramble across five things he can't stop thinking about: stretched memory valuations, a hyper-concentrated tape, mental flexibility, and the cycle nobody believes can break.

This episode is sponsored by Fiscal.ai. Modern financial data for global equities, with a self-serve API that plugs fundamentals and prices straight into your LLM and updates within minutes of earnings, not days. Get 15% off at https://fiscal.ai/yav

Chapters:

00:00 Five things I'm rambling on this month

01:58 Sponsor: Fiscal.ai

03:16 "We'll never have problems again": a market that won't quit

04:56 Energy and oil: the worries the market keeps shrugging off

06:00 AI, space plays, and stretched memory valuations

09:54 Five stocks, half the S&P's gains

10:51 Is AI coming for the investor's job?

13:08 The counterpoint: 200-IQ machines and more fragile markets

16:10 Mental flexibility: why your old letters predicted your AI take

20:04 Why "the cycle is dead" always worries me

21:42 MicroStrategy is the preferred-equity market now

24:45 The CFO signal: leaving a big company for a small one

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Celsius trades at ~20x earnings while growing ~18% a year, cheaper than Monster (~34x) and even Coke (~25x) despite faster growth. The Pershing Square Challenge third-place team makes the long case for $CELH: the market is sleeping on the Alani Nu acquisition, and their 500-person proprietary survey says the brand loyalty is real. Andrew pushes back hard on the Costco/Kirkland private-label threat, the heavy reliance on Pepsi distribution, and whether energy drinks are just the next "protein" fad waiting to be disrupted.

CELH pitch deck: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/rsyotzf7g2efkj9rfmg23/AHHk4_h_6CU12R-dTrAOtH4?rlkey=664lkpggv77rwkzh3rh78826q&e=2&st=0s4tiwjy&dl=0

This episode is sponsored by Trata. Trata is buy-siders interviewing each other; it is the fastest way I know to ramp up on a name. See a sample here: https://www.trata.com/celh

Chapters:

0:00 Why energy drinks (and Celsius) are a passion

1:13 Sponsor: Trata

2:46 Meet team Celsius, third place at the Pershing Square Challenge

4:23 Why they picked Celsius for the pitch

7:19 The setup: ~20x earnings, ~18% growth, an underpriced Alani

8:47 Why the market is discounting Celsius

10:09 The Costco/Kirkland private-label crash, and the rebuttal

12:26 Andrew's pushback: don't loyal buyers just order in bulk?

16:14 The proprietary 500-person survey

18:48 Distribution vs. brand: is the survey actually a bear case?

22:31 The Pepsi relationship: Rockstar, the 11% stake, and the risk

26:08 The Alani acquisition: sugar high or smart capital allocation?

31:24 Are energy drinks the next protein? The fad debate

38:40 Valuation: the Coke and Monster arbitrage

43:38 Wrap-up

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Team Baker Hughes, the second-place finishers in the 2026 Pershing Square Challenge, discuss their Baker Hughes thesis and why they believe the market hasn't fully appreciated the company's evolution from a cyclical oil field services business. They discuss how the long runway for the IET business, and they back their thesis up with 30+ expert calls, a trip to the Western Turbine Users conference, and a sum-of-the-parts case that leans on growth, not multiple expansion.

See the team's full pitch deck here

This episode is sponsored by Trata. Check them out at https://www.trata.com

Chapters

0:00 Intro and sponsor

2:21 Meet Team Baker Hughes

4:39 Why they backed into Baker Hughes

6:56 Watching the stock run from $45 to $65 mid-pitch

7:21 The differentiated work: 30+ expert calls and the turbine conference

8:27 The two businesses: oil field services vs. industrial energy technology

10:10 What the market is missing on the IET transformation

12:56 Is this just another cycle? The chart hit $65 three times

13:59 Why this gas turbine cycle is structurally different

17:01 AI as a distraction: onshoring and electrification

17:51 The installed base flywheel and recurring service revenue

21:13 The three turbine segments and the supply chain squeeze

23:34 Honoring 70-year customers vs. mercenary pricing

27:44 Valuation: a sum-of-the-parts story, not a multiple story

29:36 The Chart acquisition: can they really double their money?

34:56 The GE merger history and the GE Aero Alliance today

38:27 Management, alignment, and insider ownership

42:41 The C3 AI anecdote and wrap-up

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

The winners of the Pershing Square Challenge 2026 discuss their Doordash pitch, including why the growth story still has room to run (and the 90 primary research calls they made to back up that call). We get into durable US restaurant growth, why new verticals and international could inflect to profitability earlier than the street models, the underappreciated opex leverage, their proprietary Wolt case study, the Tony Xu bet, and why they think the Citrini AI-agent thesis on DoorDash is overblown.

This episode is sponsored by Trata. Check out their DASH transcript at https://www.trata.com/dash

Team DASH presentation:

ZK's LinkedIn

Aaron's LinkedIn

Elliot's LinkedIn

Chapters

00:00 The Pershing Square Challenge and team DoorDash

01:14 Sponsor: Trata

02:50 Meet the team: ZK, Elliot, and Aaron

05:40 Why they picked DoorDash out of the screen

10:10 The bull case in three parts

11:20 US restaurant growth: still the middle innings?

13:20 Demographics as a tailwind

17:50 Order frequency and the China comp

21:00 Valuation: $70B cap, adjusted EBITDA, and the path to $320

25:35 The real downside: competition, Amazon, bundled memberships

29:50 The ~90 primary research calls

33:35 New verticals and the grocery economics

38:10 A DoorDash bet or a Tony Xu bet?

41:40 Management comp and alignment

43:45 International: the Wolt case study and Deliveroo

47:00 The tech-stack reinvestment cycle

51:00 Sylvie makes her podcast debut

51:20 Citrini and the AI-agent threat

56:20 Wrap

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

James Elbaor of Marlton makes the case that $PSUS will trade at a premium to NAV instead of the typical closed-end fund discount and that $PS will ultimately trade at a premium multiple to peers like Blackstone, KKR, Apollo and Carlyle given its lean team and advantaged fee structure. We push on every part of that, including whether Ackman's portfolio is just an expensive S&P hug, why London still doesn't fully credit him, and whether Spark gives Pershing a real path into Universal Music Group.

Sponsor: Fiscal.ai. Real-time fundamental data for global equities, plus one of the leading data connectors for Claude and ChatGPT. Get 15% off at fiscal.ai/yav

Chapters:

0:00 Intro and the divergent thesis

1:05 Sponsor: Fiscal.ai

2:20 Marlton's lens on closed-end funds and UK trusts

5:00 $PSUS: scale, structure, why it's already the largest US equity CEF

7:30 The case for a premium to NAV instead of a 15 to 20% discount

12:30 $PSUS vs $PSH London: who can own what, and why it matters

15:20 The 40-Act book and Ackman's macro hedging history

17:50 Track record with and without the COVID hedge

22:00 Why London still does not fully credit Bill

23:50 "But isn't it just Google, Amazon, Meta?" — the index-hug pushback

26:00 Can Pershing get private assets (Spark, HHH-style deals) into $PSUS

29:00 $PSCM valuation: 30x FRE and the bridge from $300M to $550 to $590M

36:00 Why $PSCM should deserve a premium multiple to KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Blue Owl

42:30 Preferred performance fees and why the income statement is cleaner

45:30 Alignment: insiders own 85%+

48:00 Permanent capital vs six-year "permanent" capital at the alts

49:40 50 employees at $PSCM vs 2,200 at Carlyle

52:00 Keyman risk on Bill and Ryan Israel's role

58:30 What's next: $UMG, Vincent Bolloré, and Spark as the vehicle

1:02:00 Wrap

Links:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Driven Brands ($DRVN) puked on a February accounting restatement. Kyle Mowery (GrizzlyRock Capital) walks through why Take 5 remains a crown jewel and could be worth the entire EV of the company (making the franchise and autoglass businesses a free option). We also dig into how the April and May 8-Ks took the scary left-tail risks off the table, why Roark Capital (65% owner) might run a sale process later this year, and the bear case (corporate cost bloat, weakness in the non-Take-5 brands).

disclaimer: Andrew is long DRVN

Kyle's late 2024 DRVN podcast: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/grizzlyrock-capitals-kyle-mowery?utm_source=publication-search

[00:00:00] Intro and disclosures

[00:03:23] What is Driven Brands today

[00:05:14] Why the car wash divestiture sold so cheap

[00:09:19] Why Take 5 is the crown jewel

[00:11:15] EV risk and the US ICE car park

[00:13:21] Franchisee demand and unit growth

[00:15:31] Take 5 vs. Valvoline[00:18:13] The addbacks problem

[00:20:57] Inside the accounting restatement

[00:23:22] The cash adjustment

[00:28:50] The ATI revenue recognition issue

[00:30:12] Reading the April and May 8-Ks

[00:32:40] Debating adjusted EBITDA

[00:34:55] Corporate cost bloat

[00:37:54] Is this fraud? No

[00:39:49] Weakness in the non-Take-5 brands

[00:43:45] Sum-of-the-parts: Take 5 covers the debt

[00:46:30] Why public markets misprice the franchise brands

[00:48:04] Durability of franchise cash flows[00:50:14] Timing the resolution

[00:53:26] Roark Capital's strategic options

[00:57:40] Labor Day or Halloween?

[01:00:00] Capital cycle stories Kyle's watching

[01:03:02] Chinese supply pressure on industrials

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Rich Howe of Stock Spin-Off Investing makes the bull case for Liberty Global ($LBTYK): cheap on a sum-of-the-parts, an upcoming Ziggo spin to crystallize value, and a hidden ventures portfolio. Andrew pushes back hard on Malone, Fries, and Liberty's long history of value that never quite shows up.

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Liberty Global thesis

01:44 Sponsor: AlphaSense earnings season

04:49 Rich's bull case for $LBTYK

07:46 Andrew on management credibility

09:05 Why a spin can unlock value

11:57 Buybacks: are they actually working?

15:19 Debt structure and the deleveraging path

17:14 Operational deterioration risk

19:52 Ziggo's subscriber losses

24:09 Malone and Fries: the track record

27:46 The Liberty Global board problem

31:22 The growth investment portfolio

32:59 Why Rich haircuts the portfolio

36:43 Formula E and venture exposure

38:35 The empire-building risk

40:55 Virgin Media O2 restructuring

42:11 Other spin-off setups worth a look

43:40 Ziff Davis sum-of-the-parts

46:52 Andrew on distressed SaaS ideas

48:22 Lionsgate and media consolidation

51:53 Lionsgate as an acquisition target

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

Stock Spin-Off Investing (Rich Howe): https://www.stockspinoffinvesting.com

Legal disclaimer: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant: https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Stevanato (STVN) makes the glass vials and pre-filled syringes that GLP-1 drugs ship in. The stock has sold off on fears that oral GLP-1s replace injectables, but Aurelian Research's Leo Trudel argues that's a misread: biologics demand keeps growing, the mix is shifting toward higher-margin "high-value solutions," and switching costs in regulated drug delivery are real. We dig into the bull case, the oral-vs-injectable debate, capacity and oversupply risk, capital allocation, regulatory lock-in, and what would change Leo's view.

[00:00:00] Podcast intro and guest welcome

[00:03:08] Stevanato's business model: vials, syringes, high-value solutions[

00:03:51] COVID boom and the destocking cycle

[00:06:39] Why the stock sold off and what it implies

[00:07:34] Market expectations vs. reality

[00:11:55] Margin expansion from mix shift

[00:14:40] Oral vs. injectable GLP-1s: the real debate

[00:17:30] Why oral and injectable aren't interchangeable

[00:19:44] Capacity additions and oversupply risk

[00:21:00] Biologics demand beyond GLP-1

[00:23:04] Management trust and capital allocation

[00:26:52] Regulatory lock-in: the real moat

[00:29:42] What could break the bull case

[00:30:53] Future capex and where it goes

[00:32:41] Industry structure and M&A outlook

[00:34:37] AI tools in investment research

[00:38:09] Closing thoughts and Leo's stance

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p...

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker speaks with Deiya Pernas of Pernas Research about Sprout Social (SPT) and the broader SaaS selloff. They examine the company’s platform, competitive positioning, and whether the market is mispricing its long-term potential. The discussion covers API complexity, integrations, AI risks, and shifting perceptions across SaaS. They also address valuation, stock-based compensation concerns, and possible catalysts including governance changes or acquisition interest. The conversation closes with a wider look at the so-called SaaS apocalypse and where opportunities may exist.

____________________________________________________________

[00:00:00] Introduction and guest overview

[00:03:59] Sprout Social business model explained

[00:05:38] Market mispricing and SaaS selloff

[00:09:53] Fundamentals versus market perception debate

[00:12:05] SaaS valuation reset discussion

[00:13:45] Platform capabilities and customer usage[00:15:16] API complexity and competitive advantage

[00:18:58] Compliance risks and AI concerns

[00:21:48] Platform competition from social networks

[00:23:50] AI disruption and company adaptation

[00:27:07] Systems of record skepticism discussed

[00:30:00] Integrations and switching costs impact

[00:31:01] Stock-based compensation concerns raised

[00:32:01] Dilution risks and sustainability issues

[00:33:48] Governance changes as potential catalyst

[00:35:49] Management turnover and uncertainty

[00:36:46] Acquisition potential discussed

[00:38:59] Broader SaaS opportunities and risks

[00:42:11] SaaS durability versus AI disruption

[00:45:36] Lack of insider buying observations

[00:46:55] Criticism of board incentives

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/