AI is holding up the economy, but the foundation underneath is getting harder to read.

Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro joins Forward Guidance to unpack why inflation, labor, and AI capex are reshaping the Fed’s path.

We cover the consumer squeeze, K-shaped spending, manufacturing data, Warsh’s Fed, and supply-shock volatility. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:54 The Real Inflation Story

06:26 Fed’s Higher Inflation Threshold

08:18 Why Labor Hasn't Broken

12:04 How To Read Supply Shocks

14:58 The Consumer Strength Illusion

19:20 The K-Shaped Consumer Debate

22:30 The AI Capex Macro Risk

26:03 Inside Trade & Manufacturing Data

29:18 Is Manufacturing Really Booming?

36:43 Warsh Faces An Impossible Fed

45:41 Fed Volatility Vs White House Policy

48:14 Final Thoughts

FOLLOW NEIL DUTTA

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/RenMacLLC

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward. Guidance– https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Markets are ripping while geopolitical risk, inflation, and class tensions boil under the surface, creating a growing disconnect between booming asset prices and the economic reality facing most people.

This week, we break down the oil market, AI-driven growth, and the inflation dynamics shaping the global economy. We debate whether policymakers are intentionally running the economy hot to preserve growth and geopolitical leverage.

We also dive into gold, housing, AI job disruption, consumer weakness, inequality, and why the next political and economic cycle could look even more unstable than markets expect. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:38 Oil Inventories Near Stress Levels

07:38 Trading Oil Volatility

13:45 Oil, China, And AI

17:13 Energy Exports Versus AI Imports

20:22 Can Statecraft Survive Inflation?

24:35 Earnings Keep Ripping

26:25 Run-It-Hot Inflation Regime

30:07 Gold Returns To The Spotlight

33:01 Run It Hot, Leverage, & Centralization

40:47 AI Hits The Labor Market

44:53 Housing And Replacement Costs

47:50 Inflation Hits Everyday Life

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-r4fcVGPGE15TIZN9JOGLQLu5ATcGPYl/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Inflation may be reaccelerating just as policymakers are mistaking inaction for restraint.

Danny Dayan joins the show to explain why passive easing, loose financial conditions, and supply shocks could leave the Fed behind the curve again.

We discuss inflation, oil, labor supply, neutral rates, risk assets, the dollar, commodities, and why the melt-up may continue. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:53 Why Is Growth So Strong?

07:31 How Forward Guidance Drives Policy

11:53 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

12:45 Why Oil Hasn’t Broken Growth

19:02 Why Inflation Won’t Die

21:52 What Warsh Changes At The Fed

29:54 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

30:38 Why The Fed Is Always Late

36:45 The Fed’s Neutral Rate Mistake

43:05 The Melt-Up Trade Setup

48:57 Where To Find Danny

FOLLOW DANNY DAYAN

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/DannyDayan5

› Substack – https://dannydayan.substack.com/

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

SPONSORS

› FIDELITY CRYPTO

This episode is brought to you by Fidelity Crypto. Learn more at Fidelity.com/crypto

Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto.

Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of complete loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.

https://www.fidelity.com/crypto/trading

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Markets may be entering a volatile new regime where inflation, geopolitics, and policy fragmentation collide, challenging the stability investors have relied on for decades.

This week, we break down the latest Fed meeting and what it signals about shifting power from central banks toward fiscal and political forces shaping markets.

We also explore rising inflation pressures, fiscal dominance, oil shocks, Japan’s growing instability, and why traditional macro playbooks may no longer apply. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

03:08 Fed Dissents And Warsh

08:45 No Cuts Without Crisis

11:04 End Of The Powell Era

14:03 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

15:01 Global Yields Break Higher

17:23 Inflationary Growth Regime

20:11 Oil Shock Hits Markets

23:25 Export Ban Risk

28:26 Late Cycle Boom

36:34 Japan’s Breaking Point

48:24 Carry Trade Lose Lose

53:08 The Yield Smile

57:05 Inflation Wave Baked In

01:00:25 Hard Assets Win

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1pKJPVYyMItlwJcDPJiD2ST19OzeojYPB/view?usp=sharing

SPONSORS

› FIDELITY CRYPTO

This episode is brought to you by Fidelity Crypto. Learn more at Fidelity.com/crypto

Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto.

Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of complete loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.

https://www.fidelity.com/crypto/trading

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

AI may be the most powerful economic force since the internet, but its true impact remains deeply uncertain.

Steve Hou, Senior Quant Researcher at Bloomberg and a macroeconomist by training, joins us to unpack how AI is reshaping markets, investment cycles, and economic thinking. We explore whether this is just another bubble or something far more structural.

We dive into AI-driven capex, productivity illusions, labor market shifts, inflation dynamics, and whether AI can actually solve the U.S. debt problem. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

03:21 AI’s Macro Impact

06:48 Historical Tech Bubbles

10:25 AI Capex Drives Growth

14:13 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

15:23 How Big Can The Bubble Get?

20:14 Agentic AI Compute Demand

24:10 AI Is Too Cheap

28:15 Productivity Mirage

33:03 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

34:24 Fed Policy And AI

41:02 Can AI Fix Debt?

47:34 Physical World Bottlenecks

49:47 The Future Of Economics

FOLLOW STEVE HOU

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/stevehou

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

SPONSORS

› FIDELITY CRYPTO

This episode is brought to you by Fidelity Crypto. Learn more at Fidelity.com/crypto

Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto.

Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of complete loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.

https://www.fidelity.com/crypto/trading

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Markets feel stable on the surface, but conflicting forces are building around Fed uncertainty, AI-driven growth, and structural imbalances that may not coexist for long.

This week, we break down break down the Warsh hearing and concerns over Fed credibility to a potential re-industrialization and what’s actually driving resilience in the economy.

We also explore AI-driven capex as the true growth engine, labor and credit dynamics, geopolitical pressures, dollar dominance, and the growing tension between asset inflation and societal change. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

04:49 Kevin Warsh Hearing

13:11 Oil Shock Meets Strong Data

16:51 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

17:15 AI Capex Boom

24:02 Data Centers Remake Economy

33:25 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

34:12 Church Beats OnlyFans

47:04 Dollar Dominance Surges

51:47 Dollar Wrecking Ball

57:58 ESG Trade Dies

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vCQT4biQJI-d10B0-OuD7MxJlq-kW9tl/view?usp=sharing

SPONSORS

› FIDELITY CRYPTO

This episode is brought to you by Fidelity Crypto. Learn more at Fidelity.com/crypto

Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto.

Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of complete loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.

https://www.fidelity.com/crypto/trading

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Liquidity may be sending a very different signal than most investors think, challenging the dominant narrative around growth, rates, and risk.

We sit down with Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital, a leading voice on global liquidity, to unpack where we are in the cycle and why his framework diverges from consensus views on markets and the economy.

We explore the liquidity vs. business cycle divide, yield curve dynamics, Treasury-driven liquidity, rising commodities, and why all signals may be pointing toward a late-cycle shift. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:31 Global Liquidity Turning Lower

06:24 Liquidity Cycle vs Economy

11:29 Recession Fears vs Data

17:28 Treasury Stimulus and Buybacks

23:40 Why Bond Volatility Matters

31:56 Warsh and the Next Regime

39:29 What Interest Rates Really Mean

47:13 Positioning for Turbulence

58:08 Where to Follow Michael

FOLLOW MICHAEL

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/crossbordercap

› Substack – https://capitalwars.substack.com/

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Markets are ripping higher, but something underneath feels increasingly disconnected from reality.

This week, we break down the growing dominance of flows, derivatives, and policy over fundamentals, and what that means for how markets actually move.

We explore extreme positioning, retail chasing, sticky inflation, policy incentives into midterms, and why capital markets may be losing integrity in an environment driven by liquidity and narrative rather than fundamentals. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

03:20 Historic Rally, Broken Market

06:09 Dollar Weakness Drives Everything

08:39 Volatility, Retail, And Trump

12:11 What Actually Moves Markets

16:52 Allbirds And AI Mania

21:04 Inflation Is Turning Higher

26:32 Midterms And More Stimulus

30:07 Housing Versus Asset Prices

34:00 Negative Real Yields World

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1wFcQCeXRDIJX9c7g0Vn1H2IcBHNXdbbN/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

AI is reshaping how decisions get made in markets, but does faster insight actually create better outcomes, or just new risks?

We speak with Jan Szilagyi, CEO of Reflexivity and former global macro investor, on how AI is being deployed inside hedge funds and why this moment may be more transformative than the ChatGPT hype cycle suggests.

We explore AI-driven idea generation, solving small sample size problems, execution gaps, labor disruption, and whether a world of universal AI tools compresses alpha or expands it. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:01 From Druckenmiller to Macro

05:28 Why the Name Reflexivity

07:58 Why AI Unlocks Finance

11:40 Solving Small-Sample Macro

17:19 Known and Unknown Unknowns

23:15 When Data Beats Chatbots

28:27 Does AI Kill Alpha?

34:02 Best Strategies for AI

39:13 Jobs, Productivity, and Policy

45:10 Compute Needs Real Resources

FOLLOW GUEST

› Reflexivity X – https://x.com/ReflexivityAi

› Reflexivity Website – https://reflexivity.com/

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Markets are sending mixed signals with geopolitics, inflation, and positioning all pointing in different directions, raising concerns about whether this rally is real or just a temporary squeeze before the next leg down.

This week, we break down how the proposed ceasefire and AI acceleration are colliding with market structure in a battle of fundamentals vs flows.

We explore AI-led productivity boom, Trump's political dilemma, Fed policy uncertainty, gold’s resurgence, and whether dispersion, not direction, is the real trade. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

04:21 Ceasefire Reality Check

07:28 Positioning Fuels the Bounce

11:25 Can VIX Stay Low?

14:28 Countertrend Rally or Not?

19:09 AI Compute Still Leads

28:11 Ads (Arkham, Blockworks IR)

30:06 Fed Cuts or Wishful Thinking?

34:05 China The New Bond Haven?

38:13 Best Trades in This Regime

44:14 Gold and Market Manipulation

49:50 Buy Non-US Again?

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/18AkSBzt_7Y_B8HX6BdbUyJ-kr7Q6Sqsq/view?usp=sharing

SPONSORS

› ARKHAM

Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that allows traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds, and most influential players in crypto — and act on that information.

Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks

Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.