Forward Guidance

Is the AI trade officially dead and where can investors hide while we wait and see?

This week, we’re joined by Tony Greer to unpack the semiconductor selloff and the trades taking shape into year end.

We also discuss gold’s resilience, a potential bond bottom, the Fed’s next move, and why homebuilders deserve attention. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Tony Shows Up, Markets Fall Apart

04:29 Did The Midterms Break The Market?

07:48 The Trades Working Right Now

12:24 Fidelity, Blockworks MCP, DAS London

14:05 Is 2018 Happening Again?

17:38 The AI Bubble Starts Bursting

21:20 Can Gold And Bitcoin Survive?

24:53 Is A Liquidation Cascade Coming?

27:45 Fidelity, Blockworks MCP, DAS London

29:33 Can The Fed Really Hike?

32:12 The AI IPO Frenzy Unravels

37:34 The Best Trades Into Year-End

39:56 How To Trade A Moving Market

FOLLOW

› Tony – https://x.com/TgMacro

› TG Macro Conference – https://tgmacro.com/conference/

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

SPONSORS

› Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of significant loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.

http://fidelity.com/crypto

TOOLS

› Blockworks MCP: Our data, your agents

https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-mcp-our-data-your-agents

› Blockworks Unified API

https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api

› Blockworks Agentic Detection:

https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Is the AI trade busting or is the market just catching its breath?

This week, Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research joins us to explain why he took equity risk off while still believing the AI build-out has room to run.

We also explore financials vs. staples flashing caution, why Fed hikes are the biggest risk to AI, and how the Iran blockade and diesel cracks are reshaping oil. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Warren Pies, Founder of 3Fourteen Research

04:23 Financials vs. Staples Flash Caution

08:35 Finding Signal in Noisy Markets

12:32 Fidelity, DAS London

13:43 Is the AI Trade Still Intact?

20:04 Who Finances the AI Build-Out?

26:18 Fidelity, DAS London

27:35 The Fed vs. the Investment Boom

32:04 Debt Issuance and CoreWeave's Bonds

35:12 Will the Fed Protect the AI Race?

37:51 How Fragile Is the Rest of the Economy?

39:44 Iran, the Blockade and Oil

44:55 Durable Changes to the Oil Landscape

48:15 What Fixes Blown-Out Diesel Cracks?

FOLLOW WARREN

› Warren – https://x.com/WarrenPies

› 3Fourteen – https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

SPONSORS

› Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of significant loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.

http://fidelity.com/crypto

RESOURCES

› Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection:

https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era

› Start building with the Blockworks Unified API

https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

The AI trade is cracking and the Fed is too boxed in to help.

This week, Felix and Quinn weigh what a fracturing AI story and stalled monetary policy mean for markets heading into year end.

We explore gold breaking to new lows, implied correlations spiking, Lagarde's exit and Europe's hike pricing, Big Tech capex cuts, and why oil is ripping into the midterms. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Brewers Win the World Series

02:39 Fed Holds With Two Hawkish Dissents

08:46 Lagarde Exits as Central Banks Hike

12:46 Fidelity / DAS London

13:58 Gold Slides Below $3,900

19:16 Is the AI Trade Fracturing?

29:29 Fidelity / DAS London

30:46 What Oil Teaches Us About AI

39:46 Midterms, War and Oil Supply

44:32 Inflation, Populism and Unrest

51:05 Polymarket Missed Brazil's Election

53:43 Inside the $6.36B Binance Hack

57:37 Gold, Bitcoin and DAS London

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

SPONSORS

› Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of significant loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.

http://fidelity.com/crypto

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AkjPKMl-PBMxKBU96-LUgBw0N8DBr4nn/view?usp=sharing

› Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection:

https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era

› Start building with the Blockworks Unified API

https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a. recommendation tobuy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Can anything stop oil's run when the SPR is already drained?

This week, we dig into why the oil squeeze is becoming structural, not just a Strait of Hormuz story.

We explore the oil curve trade, the Brent–WTI gap, tightening financial conditions, and crypto's slow bottoming process. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Markets In Turmoil, Round Two

01:25 Bonds Rip As The Nasdaq Drops 3%

02:29 Oil And Bonds Break Up

05:23 Why Nobody Wants The Oil Bull Case

09:45 Reading The Oil Curve

12:38 Ads (Fidelity, DAS London)

13:50 Brent–WTI Gap Hits Wartime Highs

16:33 Diesel, Cracks & Maxed-Out Refineries

20:30 The Only Way Out Is Through

23:13 AI Capex Doubts Meet Tighter Conditions

29:18 Ads (Fidelity, DAS London)

30:36 Midterms, Iran & No Plan

36:07 No SPR Left To Cap Prices

39:56 Do Shipping Costs Cap Oil?

44:19 Is Crypto Bottoming?

54:06 The Midterms Risk For Crypto

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

SPONSORS

› Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of significant loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.

http://fidelity.com/crypto

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Tnu1D0x02EGLR6qtWjttOj6iDTp-jOLw/view?usp=sharing

› Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection:

https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era

› Start building with the Blockworks Unified API

https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Is crypto finally rewarding the investors who do the work?

This week, we sit down with three top allocators at DAS Singapore to unpack where the real alpha lives in an early, uneven bull market.

We explore where crypto x AI actually works, building size in illiquid tokens, if $HYPE stays the consensus winner, and seed vs. growth for the next cycle. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:21 Where Is Crypto AI’s Edge?

07:10 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

07:43 Do AI Agents Need Blockchains?

10:16 How Crypto Funds Allocate Capital

16:33 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

17:13 Finding Alpha In A Crowded Market

23:37 Longs, Shorts, And Beating Bitcoin

26:34 Seed Or Growth: Where’s The Opportunity?

FOLLOW GUESTS

› Arthur Cheong – https://x.com/arthur0x

› Rajiv Patel-O'Connor – https://x.com/rajivpoc

› Smac – https://x.com/0xsmac

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

SPONSORS

› Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of significant loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.

http://fidelity.com/crypto

RESOURCES

› Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection:

https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era

› Start building with the Blockworks Unified API

https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Is the AI trade now the only thing standing between the economy and a slowdown?

This week, we unpack why bonds are rallying through scalding inflation data and what that says about the current cycle and inflection point in markets.

We explore the collapse in October hike odds, why AI backstops favor debt over equity, the Russell's brutal losing streak, where to hide from a correlation shock, and whether the top is in for yields. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:06 Why Are Bonds Ignoring Hot Inflation?

07:53 Has The Fed Ruled Out October?

11:56 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

12:29 Cracks In The AI Growth Engine

16:59 Is A Growth Slowdown Already Coming?

21:11 The Market’s Warning Shot

26:43 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

27:42 Who Gets Saved In AI Bailouts?

32:14 Where Can Investors Find Shelter?

40:41 Do Rate Hikes Still Work?

44:43 Can Bonds Really Offer Safety?

49:06 Iran Escalation And The Midterms

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

SPONSORS

› Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of significant loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.

http://fidelity.com/crypto

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Jxp-TOVcBtYAs5dzvk8GK4k2pgKJE2vf/view?usp=sharing

› Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection:

https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era

› Start building with the Blockworks Unified API

https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Are onchain markets about to become the default way the world trades?

This week, Felix sits down live at DAS Singapore with Robinhood's Johann Kerbrat and Lighter's Vlad Novakovski to unpack the convergence of TradFi and crypto.

We explore 24/7 trading, why perps beat CFDs, pre-IPO and commodity perps, the CFTC path for US perps, and Robinhood Chain's first 100 days. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:14 Why Finance Is Moving Onchain

04:17 Can 24/7 Markets Stay Liquid?

06:33 Why Perps Are Going Mainstream

09:59 Bringing Real Assets To Perps

13:10 Can The US Get Perps Right?

15:51 Connecting Traditional & Onchain Finance

18:15 What Robinhood Chain Has Learned

FOLLOW GUESTS

› Johann – https://x.com/JohannKerbrat

› Vlad – https://x.com/vnovakovski

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

› DAS – https://x.com/blockworksDAS

RESOURCES

› Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection:

https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era

› Start building with the Blockworks Unified API

https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Can policymakers keep the AI boom alive without squeezing the rest of the economy?

This week, Aidan Garrib, PGM Global’s head of global macro strategy and research, joins us to explore the widening divide between Wall Street and Main Street.

We discuss what’s driving bond yields, housing’s squeeze, the debasement trade, and Europe’s policy trap. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:38 What’s Really Driving Bond Yields?

08:31 AI Booms While Housing Breaks

14:40 Can The Fed Get Yields Down?

19:23 The Fed’s Inflation Balancing Act

22:42 Can Main Street Survive AI’s Boom?

29:04 Why Policymakers Need Stocks Higher

33:04 Do Rate Hikes Actually Stimulate?

38:13 Engineering Buyers For Government Debt

43:00 Europe’s Inflation Or Industry Dilemma

48:23 Why Europe’s Crisis Keeps Getting Worse

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Aidan – https://x.com/AidanGarrib

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection:

https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era

› Start building with the Blockworks Unified API

https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

› TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto.

Get your TOKEN2049 tickets and 10% DISCOUNT here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

The 10-year just closed at 5.22%, but the pain trade may be even higher.

This week, 40-year rates trading veteran DCP joins us as we examine the bond selloff and what it would take to actually break something and flip the pain trade in bonds.

We explore SOFR hike pricing, AI capex and private credit, diesel's hit to Main Street, market concentration, the quiet consumer stock bear market, and where DCP would finally get long. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:21 Why Bond Yields Keep Rising

07:30 Can Main Street Survive Higher Rates?

11:15 Can Treasury Stop The Selloff?

16:22 What Can’t The Fed Fix?

19:54 Why Higher Yields Remain The Pain Trade

23:13 What Breaks The AI Boom?

26:38 The Generational Bond Bull Market Is Over

29:47 Can Geopolitics Reverse The Selloff?

35:55 How Do You Trade This Market?

39:34 Could 6% Yields Break Markets?

44:21 What Is The Market Hiding?

50:04 The Trade After Something Breaks

53:48 Would You Short The AI Leaders?

58:45 Final Thoughts and Key Trade Levels

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› DCP – https://x.com/Dcpcooks

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn– https://x.com/qthomp

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks. –https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_6xkDwJy-Ux1Ko3q8H8LmOfbVNk-tTlI/view?usp=sharing

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

› TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for. one ofthe biggest weeks in crypto.

Get your TOKEN2049 tickets and 10% DISCOUNT here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST

› Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

What happens when the Fed hikes into fading stimulus, slowing growth, and persistent inflation?

This week, we're joined by Vincent Deluard of StoneX Group to explore America’s emerging stagflation trap, AI’s economic support, and Europe’s potential Japan-style currency reset.

We also discuss the contrarian case for UK equities and Canada’s investment revival. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:34 Did The Fed Turn Too Hawkish?

08:10 The Stimulus Boom Is Fading

13:11 The Return Of Stagflation

21:06 Is The Fed Making A Mistake?

25:45 Can Trump Salvage Midterms?

32:35 Why AI Leaders Want Regulation

35:46 Will Europe Follow Japan?

48:45 The European Debasement Trade

59:28 Is The UK The Best Hedge?

01:05:41 Can Canada Reinvent Its Economy?

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Vincent – https://x.com/VincentDeluard

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/189_grP_F-bFABLdyh84TJA3GzOlLmIQm/view?usp=sharing

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

› TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto.

Get your TOKEN2049 tickets and 10% DISCOUNT here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST

› Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.