Markets are sending mixed signals with geopolitics, inflation, and positioning all pointing in different directions, raising concerns about whether this rally is real or just a temporary squeeze before the next leg down.

This week, we break down how the proposed ceasefire and AI acceleration are colliding with market structure in a battle of fundamentals vs flows.

We explore AI-led productivity boom, Trump's political dilemma, Fed policy uncertainty, gold’s resurgence, and whether dispersion, not direction, is the real trade. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

04:21 Ceasefire Reality Check

07:28 Positioning Fuels the Bounce

11:25 Can VIX Stay Low?

14:28 Countertrend Rally or Not?

19:09 AI Compute Still Leads

28:11 Ads (Arkham, Blockworks IR)

30:06 Fed Cuts or Wishful Thinking?

34:05 China The New Bond Haven?

38:13 Best Trades in This Regime

44:14 Gold and Market Manipulation

49:50 Buy Non-US Again?

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/18AkSBzt_7Y_B8HX6BdbUyJ-kr7Q6Sqsq/view?usp=sharing

SPONSORS

› ARKHAM

Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that allows traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds, and most influential players in crypto — and act on that information.

Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks

Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

A war few expected to last this long is exposing how fragile global systems really are, raising a deeper question about whether we're witnessing a temporary disruption or the end of a the U.S. unipolar era.

Geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro joins us to break down the Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz, and how shifting power dynamics are reshaping global markets and strategy.

We unpack shipping flows, supply chain fractures, energy chokepoints, multipolarity, and why markets may be underestimating cascading global disruptions. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:42 Iran War Framework

07:23 What Actually Matters

11:46 Counting Ships, Not Headlines

15:59 Beyond Hormuz

20:20 Hidden Supply Chain Risks

25:20 Ads (Arkham, Blockworks IR)

27:11 How Long Until Damage?

32:01 Negotiations or Theater?

35:55 Why Markets Still Shrug

40:18 China’s Quiet Advantage

47:56 The Bull Case Remains

FOLLOW GUEST

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/JacobShap

› Website – https://jacobshapiro.com/

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

›. Felix– https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

SPONSORS

› ARKHAM

Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that lets traders see inside the wallets of top traders, funds, and influential players in crypto — and act on that information.

Sign up: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks

Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions may be excluded from onboarding.

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance. isa recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

AI is much more than another tech cycle. It’s a structural break that’s rewriting how economies function, how markets price assets, and how humans create value.

We sit down with Jordi Visser of 22V Research live from the Digital Asset Summit in New York to unpack how the shift from chatbots to autonomous agents is reshaping productivity, markets, and long-term economic frameworks.

We explore collapsing valuation models, AI-driven productivity, shifting labor dynamics, the compute arms race, and why Bitcoin, semiconductors, and hard assets may define the next cycle. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

03:23 AI Changes Macro Frameworks

06:28 Productivity Boom or Bust?

09:19 Why Bitcoin Benefits

12:42 AI and the Labor Market

15:55 The Sovereign AI Arms Race

19:15 Can New Models Catch Up?

22:58 Why Compute Demand Is Infinite

26:44 Hardware vs. Software

29:14 How to Actually Use AI

FOLLOW GUEST

› Jordi – https://x.com/jvisserlabs

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Markets appear frozen, but under the surface, positioning shifts and macro pressures suggest something far more unstable is unfolding.

We’re back with the trio dissecting market structure, geopolitical risks, and the growing disconnect between headlines and actual capital flows.

We dig into extreme hedging, volatility-driven moves, inflation from energy shocks, rotation into real assets, and looming credit stress that could force unconventional policy responses. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

06:36 Overhedged Market Setup

11:51 Why Volatility Misfires

15:11 Rotation Into Real Assets

18:12 Flows Over Fundamentals

22:00 Oil’s Inflation Corridor

29:48 Ads (Arkham, Blockworks IR)

31:25 Bear Flatteners, Bad Bonds

40:18 Wartime Capital Allocation

47:04 AI Compute Still Booming

55:01 Inflation Path, Not Politics

59:12 Final Thoughts

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1VIgcvSAxR2kJPUjPsa7gjWFQPszL8atC/view?usp=sharing

SPONSORS

› ARKHAM

Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that allows traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds, and most influential players in crypto — and act on that information.

Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks

Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users. residing incertain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold. positions in thecompanies, funds, or projects discussed.

Policy may be reacting to the wrong signals, as powerful structural forces quietly reshape inflation and the economy beneath the surface.

In this episode live from the Digital Asset Summit, we sit down with Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran to unpack his recent dissent and why he believes inflation risks are overstated while the labor market deserves more support.

We explore oil shocks vs policy lags, AI and deregulation as disinflationary forces, shifts in the neutral rate, and how stablecoins could reshape global dollar demand. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:11 Why Miran Dissented

04:51 Looking Through Oil Shocks

06:36 AI And Deregulation Disinflate

10:04 The Case For Neutral

12:30 What Sets Neutral Rates

16:12 Ads (Arkham, Blockworks IR)

17:50 Where "Running It Hot" Narrative Fails

25:02 Skinny Master Accounts

27:02 Stablecoins And Dollar Demand

30:51 Tokenized Deposits Or Stablecoins

FOLLOW GUEST

› Federal Reserve – https://x.com/federalreserve

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

SPONSORS

› ARKHAM

Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that lets traders see inside. the wallets of top traders, funds, and influential players in crypto— and act on that information.

Sign up: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks

Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions may be excluded from onboarding.

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Global markets face a fragile moment where a geopolitical shock could collide with already restrictive monetary policy, creating a setup few investors are prepared for.

Felix and Quinn sit down with Joseph Wang live at DAS New York to unpack today's chaotic macro landscape, focusing on how energy markets and central bank constraints are increasingly intertwined.

We explore oil supply risks, the Fed’s policy trap, liquidity constraints, the ongoing banking regime shift, and how these forces could reshape risk assets and global growth. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

03:28 Middle East Drives Macro

06:21 Risk Assets Face A Lid

09:15 Will The Fed Look Through?

12:02 Why Liquidity Stays Tight

15:14 Dollar Up Gold Down

19:16 The Great Rebalancing

22:28 Ads (Blockworks IR, Arkham)

27:18 Where Liquidity Could Come From

31:04 Can They Steer It Back?

35:20 What Signals Actually Matter

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Joseph - https://x.com/josephwang

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

SPONSORS

› ARKHAM

Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that allows traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds, and most influential players in crypto — and act on that information.

Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks

Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

AI is forcing a rethinking of everything from energy and geopolitics to markets and human purpose while raising a deeper question: are we entering an era of abundance or losing control of the systems we’re building?

Raoul Pal joins us live from DAS to break down how the AI arms race, liquidity dynamics, and crypto infrastructure are converging into a single macro narrative shaping the next cycle.

We explore AI-driven abundance, crypto as agent infrastructure, oil and liquidity risks, tokenized data markets, and what human value looks like in an AI-dominated world. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:12 Oil Shock Meets Macro

05:22 AI Needs More Energy

07:19 The US China Race

08:53 Why Recessions Cannot Happen

12:03 Banks Will Provide Liquidity

15:24 AI Adoption Is Mispriced

18:41 Ads (Blockworks IR, Arkham)

20:15 Superintelligence Changes Everything

24:11 What Is Human Value

30:22 AI Agents Need Crypto

37:39 AI Meets Longevity

FOLLOW GUEST

› Raoul – https://x.com/RaoulGMI

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

SPONSORS

› ARKHAM

Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that lets traders see inside the wallets of top traders, funds, and influential players in crypto — and act on that information.

Sign up: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks

Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions may be excluded from onboarding.

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

In this special episode, we introduce Blockworks’ new investor relations platform for onchain businesses.

As institutional capital continues to enter crypto markets, expectations around transparency, standardization, and professionalism are rising. But instead of replicating legacy systems, Blockworks IR takes a different approach, leveraging real-time, onchain data to create a more transparent, data-driven, and low-friction investor relations model.

The platform combines curated analytics, branded investor portals, and white-glove advisory support into a single solution, helping teams tell a clearer, more credible story while giving investors a more efficient way to evaluate opportunities.

Launched at the Digital Asset Summit in New York, Blockworks IR aims to fill a critical gap in the industry. Listen to learn more about the vision behind the product and what it means for the future of investor relations in crypto.

We explore a market caught between fragile stability and mounting geopolitical pressure, where central banks, energy shocks, and liquidity constraints collide in unpredictable ways.

Quinn and Felix break down the latest Fed meeting, shifting rate expectations, and how global energy disruptions in the Middle East are reshaping macro positioning and investor sentiment.

We cover energy shocks, policy paralysis, equity vulnerability, geographic imbalances, and why markets may be underestimating second-order effects across currencies, commodities, and risk assets. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

04:12 Fed Meeting & Market Reaction

10:45 Foreign Central Bank Dilemma

14:40 Potential Export Ban & Downplaying Risks

18:55 Most Vulnerable Economies

22:08 Agriculture Complex & Financial Warfare

26:58 Ads (Arkham)

27:46 Russia Winning While the World Burns

29:58 Growth-Inflation Dilemma & Fragile Positioning

39:42 Transferring Vol, U.S Trade Balance

42:50 Risks to the U.S. & Global Domino Effect

48:07 Final Thoughts

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC (March 24–26)

› Use code FORWARD200 for $200off

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ARpAEgw6gVndjjSP2m882nsfMOkT4o68/view?usp=sharing

SPONSORS

› ARKHAM

Arkham isa crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform. that allows traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds, and. most influential players in crypto — and act on that information.

Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks

Eligibility. varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.

DISCLAIMER

Nothing. said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

In this episode, we explore how a sudden oil shock and geopolitical conflict can quickly rewrite the global macro outlook, forcing markets and policymakers into a difficult balancing act between inflation and growth.

We sit down with Bob Elliott of Unlimited Funds to unpack how the Iran-driven oil shock fits into today’s fragile, savings-driven economy.

We discuss oil shocks past and present, policy sequencing, bond market reactions, global currency impacts, and why markets may be underestimating the second-order effects of rising energy prices. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:30 Oil Shock Challenges & Today vs 2022

10:13 Contrasting the 2008 & 1970s Oil Shocks

15:15 The Energy Shock Impact on Households

19:16 How Will Central Banks & Bonds React?

29:50 Ads (Arkham)

30:38 Oil Shock Sequence of Events

32:28 Iran War's Asymmetric Regional Impact

39:00 What Happens to Gold?

42:02 Understanding a Wartime Economy

46:36 Final Thoughts

FOLLOW GUEST

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/BobEUnlimited

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

EVENTS

› Join us at. Digital AssetSummit 2026 in NYC (March 24–26)

› Use code FORWARD200 for $200 off

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026

SPONSORS

› ARKHAM

Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that lets traders see inside the wallets of top traders, funds, and influential players in crypto — and act on that information.

Sign up: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks

Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions may be excluded from onboarding.

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.