This week, we discuss the Trump trade shakeout, whether fear and volatility are presenting great buying opportunities, and the bond market after February’s NFP. We also delve into the outlook for the oil market, the subsectors Tony’s watching, destructive Bitcoin thinking and more. Enjoy!

—

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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1j8QLpaGApqV5sOpojjcRKCilxnOcrF7M/view?usp=sharing

—

Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125

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Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:43) Bitcoin and Crypto Market

(07:17) Equities and Recession Narratives

(14:14) Ledger Ad

(14:59) European Market Outlook

(18:59) Thoughts on Buying the Dip

(27:32) Ledger Ad

(28:18) Bond Market and NFP

(32:28) Oil Market Outlook

(37:51) Equity Subsectors

(40:10) Trading Strategies and Market Sentiment

(43:52) Crypto Market Advice

(48:45) Sectors that Will Lead Us Higher

(51:37) Maintaining Emotional Composure in Trading

(54:15) Learn More About Tony & Collab Plans

—

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Mohamed El-Erian joins the show to discuss the February jobs report, tariffs & imports front-running, and the inflation outlook, including the growing risk of stagflation. We also delve into the outlook for Europe, Japan, and China, Bitcoin and digital assets, and more. Enjoy!

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG200 FOR $200 OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

__

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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx

—

Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:27) Job Report & Labor Market

(05:45) US Growth & Stagflation Risk

(09:41) Tariffs & Imports

(11:19) Inflation Outlook & Oil

(15:48) Fiscal Outlook

(19:32) DAS Promo

(20:14) Fed & Number of Cuts in 2025

(22:57) Goods, Services, & Shelter Inflation

(25:51) Europe, Japan, & China

(32:14) Bitcoin & Digital Assets

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Jeff deGraaf joins the show to discuss the current market regime and why he thinks a recession is unlikely, how he is thinking about the different S&P sectors, and how foreign markets like Europe and China compare to the US. We also delve into the outlook for yields and monetary policy, credit spreads, gold, Bitcoin, and more. Enjoy!

__

Follow Jeff deGraaf: https://x.com/RenMacLLC

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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx

—

Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

__

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(03:09) Market Cycle Clock Explained

(06:09) Deciphering the Market Regime

(10:13) Sector Performance and Predictions

(11:01) Ledger Ad

(11:46) Sector Performance and Predictions (Con't)

(19:04) Outlook for European and Chinese Markets

(24:30) Monetary Policy and Fixed Income Outlook

(32:48) Ledger Ad

(33:33) Monetary Policy and Fixed Income Outlook (Con't)

(34:35) Credit Spreads and Market Sentiment

(37:08) Gold and Bitcoin

(41:27) Highest Conviction Bet for 2025

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss why markets lead the economy and a drawdown will trigger a recession, the possibility of stagflation & repercussions of low interest rates, and the impact of Trump’s political agenda on markets and the economy. We also delve into the outlook for oil and gold, market skew, OpEx-driven drawdowns, and more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Supply Shock: https://twitter.com/SupplyShockBW

Supply Shock YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SupplyShockBW

Follow Cem: https://x.com/jam_croissant

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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx

—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1F8U5kLU2L_bITYG3CM6dn8e7X897-CDT/view?usp=sharing

—

Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:44) Macro Overview

(05:21) Recession Predictions

(07:28) Interest Rates, Inflation, & Market Reaction

(10:42) Skale Ad

(11:04) Interest Rates, Inflation, & Market Reaction (Con't)

(14:21) Trump, Populism, & Economic Policy Outlook

(24:35) Historical Comparisons

(31:50) Market Reflexivity & Inflation Expectations

(33:32) Skale Ad

(34:03) Market Reflexivity & Inflation Expectations (Con’t)

(39:10) Skew Dynamics and Volatility

(46:01) Portfolio Allocation Strategies

(49:51) Oil and Gold Market Insights

(54:23) Final Thoughts OpEx Crumbs

—

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Andy Constan joins the show to discuss Quantitative Tightening 2.0, why the Fed wants to change its SOMA portfolio, and the connection between QT, the debt ceiling, and TGA. We also delve into the deficit, DOGE success being anti-growth, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Andy: https://x.com/dampedspring

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx

—

Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

__

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:08) Understanding Quantitative Tightening (QT) 2.0

(10:01) Skale Ad

(10:22) Why the Fed Wants to Adjust its SOMA Portfolio

(17:50) Potential Market Impacts and Future Strategies

(25:17) Debate on QT Pause and Debt Ceiling Dynamics

(34:51) Skale Ad

(35:21) Debate on QT Pause and Debt Ceiling Dynamics (Con't)

(38:35) Monetary Plumbing, Debt Ceiling Concerns, & Demand for Treasuries

(44:03) Impact of Budget Deficit on Issuance & Interest Rates

(52:28) Economic Projections and Policy Impacts

(01:00:55) Risk Assets and Market Sentiment

(01:05:44) Is There A Bond Trade?

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss the big takeaways from the Fed Meeting Minutes, Bessent’s remarks on Treasury issuance and inflation, and the near-term liquidity picture. We also delve into oil and energy policy, the limited upside in crypto right now, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx

—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ziABEksWyIgTom9idgy5HhVyThbd3Kyb/view?usp=sharing

—

Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

__

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:33) FOMC Meeting Minutes

(06:29) Fed's Balance Sheet and Treasury Purchases

(16:20) Skale Ad

(16:42) Fed's Balance Sheet and Treasury Purchases (Con't)

(20:15) Inflation Data and Fed's Perspective

(22:41) Skale Ad

(23:12) Liquidity Concerns and QT

(27:07) Inflation and Economic Growth

(29:11) Oil & Global Energy Policies

(32:21) Microsoft CEO's Take on AI and CapEx

(33:43) Yen & DAX

(38:09) Crypto Market Update

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Benn Eifert joins the show to discuss derivative & volatility strategies, the biggest derivatives misconceptions, and flaws with Stephen Miran’s tariff arguments. We also delve into volatility risk under the Trump administration, how to think about VIX percentage moves, and much more. Enjoy!

__

Follow Benn Eifert: https://x.com/bennpeifert

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

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Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx

—

Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

__

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:32) Understanding Volatility-Focused Hedge Funds

(04:12) Tools and Strategies in Volatility Trading

(11:21) The Rise of Derivative-Based ETFs

(19:03) Skale Ad

(19:27) The Rise of Derivative-Based ETFs (Con't)

(27:15) Risks and Misconceptions in Retail Options Trading

(32:06) Skale Ad

(32:36) Risks and Misconceptions in Retail Options Trading (Con’t)

(37:09) Options Trading

(41:07) Implied Probabilities and Market Misconceptions

(44:17) The Reality of Options Pricing Models

(47:06) Impact of Derivatives on the Market

(57:47) Navigating Volatility in the Trump Era

(01:01:01) Debating the Merits of Tariffs

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss the latest CPI data, how the Trump administration will balance economic vs market success, and the constant economic headfakes. We also delve into how the government kicks the can without QE, MicroStrategy holding up Bitcoin, and more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Mike: https://x.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1kJjbC4s7DKMR3nU0_6C242oEhrfYH67O/view?usp=drive_link

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

__

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(03:03) Analyzing the Latest CPI Data

(10:56) Tariffs, Trade, and Economic Headfakes

(16:53) Skale Ad

(17:15) Tariffs, Trade, and Economic Headfakes (Con't)

(29:34) Skale Ad

(30:04) Roundup Continues

(32:51) Liquidity Concerns

(34:49) The SLR Exemption Debate

(42:59) Crypto, Bitcoin Strength, & Michael Saylor's Influence

(48:57) Final Thoughts

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Andreas Steno Larsen joins the show to discuss the outlook for liquidity, the uptick in the manufacturing and credit cycle, and expectations around inflation. We also delve into Powell’s QE comments, idiosyncratic drivers of gold, and much more. Enjoy!

Follow Andreas Steno Larsen: https://x.com/AndreasSteno

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

—

Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

__

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:18) Current Macro Backdrop and Market Sentiment

(01:48) Liquidity Backdrop and Federal Reserve Policies

(04:33) Private Sector Liquidity and Credit Creation

(10:21) Treasury General Account and Debt Ceiling

(17:30) Skale Ad

(17:54) Future Liquidity Measures and Market Implications

(21:06) Private Credit and Economic Cycle

(26:55) Meta's Client Base and Market Power

(27:44) Russell Index and Wage Growth Insights

(29:42) Inflation and CPI Analysis

(33:17) Skale Ad

(33:46) Global Tariff Impacts and Dollar Outlook

(36:26) European Market Performance

(42:05) Gold Market Dynamics

(48:22) Bond Yields and Truflation Measure

(51:19) Learn More About Andreas and his Work

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss the possibility of the market discounting Trump, Bessent, & DOGE success, the market implications of the Treasury QRA, and whether the manufacturing uptick is tariff front-running or the beginning of a new boom. We also delve into the state of the crypto market, MicroStrategy’s earnings, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/19hLvwH8eVffhQ5-C97EM1pNqfxXRwYWz/view?usp=sharing

—

Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:02) Upcoming DAS 2025

(03:05) Tariff Delays

(04:41) Bitcoin and Crypto

(10:54) Ads (Skale, Ledger)

(12:01) Liquidity Outlook and Dollar Strength

(17:02) Market Discounting Trump, Bessent, & DOGE

(20:32) Treasury Issuance and Policy Changes

(28:06) Growth & Liquidity

(29:02) Bond Yields and Growth Expectations

(30:51) Ads (Skale, Ledger)

(32:06) Construction and Manufacturing

(33:57) Government vs. Private Sector

(36:14) Stock Market and Investment Sentiment

(40:44) MicroStrategy and Bitcoin Investments

(43:49) Evaluating Government's Role in Investments

(47:54) Upcoming Jobs Report

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.