In this episode, Founder & CIO of Damped Spring Andy Constan breaks down the three major macro levers shaping markets right now: a cautious Fed at a leadership crossroads, a Treasury issuing cold water via its QRA policy, and a fiscal impulse that looks contractionary once tariffs are factored in. He argues that while markets may be riding “run it hot” narratives, the data suggests we're already slowing. Enjoy!

__

Follow Andy: https://x.com/dampedspring

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

__

Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london

__

This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):

http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix

Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):

vaneck.com/SMHXFelix

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:03) Debating Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle

(04:13) Institutional Adoption & Regulation

(04:57) Are Four-Year Cycles Psychological?

(08:37) Bitcoin’s Evolving Political Impact

(09:48) Ledger Ad

(10:38) Bitcoin’s Evolving Political Impact

(17:00) Institutions Are Slow & Steady

(18:58) Reflecting on Bitcoin's Scarcity

(22:20) Crypto Regulation & Institutional Impact

(23:38) Ledger Ad

(24:25) Retail Investors & the Four-Year Cycle

(25:45) Adapting to Bitcoin's Middle Ages

(33:28) Can Blockchain Support Incoming Demand?

(36:50) Sovereign Adoption & Strategic Reserves

(38:28) OG Bitcoin HODLers Cashing Out

(41:38) Final Thoughts

__

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance