Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of QI Research and former Federal Reserve insider, joins the Julia La Roche Show for an in-person interview to discuss why she sees "frayed nerves" at the Federal Reserve about the incoming Trump administration. In this wide-ranging conversation, DiMartino Booth reveals why 18 months of downward revisions to jobs data is "statistically impossible," explains how bureaucrats could start "releasing the Kraken" with true economic data that gets "pinned on Trump," and warns about the explosion of buy-now-pay-later debt that's not showing up in official credit statistics. She also shares a powerful message about the growing divide between Wall Street and Main Street

A global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets.  Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy.

DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.

Links:  

QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth

Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

Timestamps:

00:00 Welcome Danielle

01:00 Reaction to the FOMC, frayed nerves at the Fed

3:08 Fed spooked by inflation

3:45 Fed went in opposite direction of staff presentations

6:30 10-Year

8:03 A "closer call"

9:12 Does the Fed make policy for the public good?

13:00 Nihilism among younger generations

16:30 The government is buying the economy time, and the Fed is making the wealthier wealthier  

18:48 Are we in a recession?

22:00 Declining consumption is not a prerequisite to recession

24:10 Could Trump inherit a recession?

26:30 Jobs numbers

30:00 Story behind the data

31:20 Trump administration 2.0

37:45 Stock market

39:50 What's keeping Danielle up at night

42:11 Parting thoughts

Former hedge fund manager Felix Zulauf, founder and president of Zulauf Consulting, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 220 for his annual outlook interview to discuss why U.S. stocks are in a bubble and what could break it. In this wide-ranging conversation, Zulauf explains why watching the Japanese yen is critical for understanding when global liquidity might dry up, warns that AI stocks could fall 50-70% when the bubble bursts, and shares his view that 2025 will be a "mini version" of the decade's roller coaster ride for markets. He also discusses why Trump's proposed tariffs could create significant economic headwinds, explores why Europe and China face structural challenges, and outlines his targets for Bitcoin ($115,000-$130,000) before a potential 80% correction.

https://www.felixzulauf.com/

0:00 Welcome back Felix Zulauf

00:50 Macro picture

03:47 China's structural challenges

06:14 Germany and Europe's structural malaise

09:36 US labor market dynamics

12:46 Impact of government spending cuts and tariffs

16:30 US stock market bubble discussion

21:14 Global liquidity and Japanese yen dynamics

25:14 Market bubble indicators and timing

28:39 Decennial pattern analysis

32:36 Discussion of inflation dynamics

36:36 Bond market paradigm shift

41:20 Commodity sector leadership outlook

45:21 Trade war risks and historical parallels

48:56 Gold and Bitcoin outlook

51:20 Financial system stability concerns

https://www.felixzulauf.com/

Professor Campbell Harvey, professor of finance at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University and the inventor of the most famous recession indicator — the inverted yield curve — returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 219 to discuss the state of the economy, the yield curve, and what's ahead for U.S. growth.

Links:  

DeFI and the Future of Finance: https://www.amazon.com/DeFi-Future-Finance-Campbell-Harvey/dp/1119836018 https://www.fuqua.duke.edu/faculty/campbell-harvey https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/ https://twitter.com/camharvey

Timestamps:

00:02 Introduction to Professor Campbell Harvey

00:51 BlackRock's "end of boom-bust cycle" thesis

04:15 Historical perspective on market cycles

06:14 Impact of wealthy consumers on economy

07:13 Role of technological innovation

11:37 U.S. leadership in innovation

14:31 Growth prospects and productivity potential

16:09 Post-election growth outlook

24:56 U.S. debt and deficit challenges

28:16 Social Security sustainability issues

32:51 Inverted yield curve indicator discussion

40:11 Impact of technological innovations

45:21 Federal Reserve policy critique

50:20 Distortions from Fed's zero-rate policy

54:18 Future consequences of Fed decisions

59:40 Closing thoughts on U.S. prospects

James Lavish, reformed hedge-fund manager and co-managing partner of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund and author of The Informationist newsletter, joined Episode 218 of the Julia La Roche Show as Bitcoin crossed the historic $100,000 milestone.

Lavish provides a comprehensive analysis of the current macro environment, explores why "all roads lead to inflation," breaks down MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy, and shares his outlook on institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies. He also discusses the widening wealth gap in America and examines the challenges facing the Department of Government Efficiency's ambitious spending cut goals.

Links:

Twitter/X: https://x.com/jameslavish

The Informationist: https://jameslavish.substack.com/

The Bitcoin Opportunity Fund: https://www.bitcoinopportunity.fund/

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction and welcome James Lavish

00:45 Post-election market overview

02:34 Fed policy and bond market reaction

04:56 Labor market and unemployment analysis

06:40 Discussion of economic soft spots

09:27 Wealth inequality and Cantillon effect

12:16 Federal Reserve's policy options

15:05 Understanding unemployment metrics

18:41 Debt and deficit discussion

24:19 Department of Government Efficiency analysis

29:34 Bitcoin breaking $100K milestone

33:24 Bitcoin ETF impact and institutional adoption

38:36 Bitcoin catalysts and outlook

44:18 MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy explained

51:13 Corporate Bitcoin adoption outlook

55:18 Closing thoughts and investment approach

Anthony Scaramucci, managing partner of SkyBridge Capital, joins Julia La Roche on Episode 217 to discuss his new book "The Little Book of Bitcoin." He shares his journey from his 11-day tenure as White House Communications Director to SkyBridge Capital's bold entry into cryptocurrency that nearly led to the firm's collapse. Scaramucci offers insights on failure, risk-taking, and explains why he believes Bitcoin's value will increase tenfold from today's price.

Links:

https://x.com/scaramucci

https://www.amazon.com/Little-Book-Bitcoin-Already-Figured/dp/1394286643

0:00 Welcome Anthony Scaramucci

01:50 Scaramucci on Trump

04:00 Politics

05:00 Impact on relationship

06:23 Take risks and fail

08:37 How bad did it get economically?

10:29 Doing nothing is sometimes the best thing to do, but it's very hard on Wall Street

12:20 Island of Elba observation

14:15 Getting fired from the White House

17:55 Macro picture

25:00 Skybridge taking a massive risk in 2020, going in on Bitcoin

32:00 Raising money again, buying Bitcoin still

33:57 Said Bitcoin was going to $100K at the end of 2022

36:13 Trump and Bitcoin

39:17 Michael Saylor

43:16 Bitcoin existing as part of Wall Street

50:00 If I'm right, it's going to be worth 10x where it is today, $150K-$300K next 3-5 years

53:11 Why Gary Gensler helped the crypto industry

55:30 Parting thoughts

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, joined the Julia La Roche Show (Ep. 216) to share his outlook on markets amid the transition to a new Trump administration. Whalen explains why the markets want to see seriousness about deficit reduction from the incoming administration, discusses his views on Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary pick, and outlines why showing progress on the deficit could drive rates lower without Fed intervention. He also delves into the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the return of bond vigilantes, and why Bitcoin's rise is his favorite inflation indicator.

Links:    

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/   

Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/  

Timestamps:

**Timestamps:**

00:01 Introduction to Chris Whalen

00:54 Post-election cabinet picks and macro overview

03:16 Analysis of Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent

05:04 Discussion of Treasury debt and market implications

06:14 Treasury priorities and impact on rates

07:31 Federal Reserve policy and market normalization

09:25 Long-term vs short-term rates outlook

11:25 Housing market forecast

13:22 Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac conservatorship discussion

17:16 GSE stock trading outlook

19:11 Fed rate cut implications for market narrative

21:49 Recession and credit market concerns

23:17 Inflation discussion and Bitcoin indicator

25:49 Gold policy recommendations

27:07 Tariffs and trade policy analysis

29:28 Department of Government Efficiency outlook

31:35 Government headcount reduction impact

34:44 Closing thoughts on Treasury markets

Legendary investor Jim Rogers, co-founder of the Quantum Fund with George Soros and author of multiple bestselling books including "Street Smarts" and "Investment Biker," returns to the Julia La Roche Show (Ep. 215) with a stark warning about America's debt crisis and market euphoria. Speaking from Singapore, Rogers shares why he's recently cut back his positions "enormously," explains his continued investments in China and Uzbekistan, and offers a sobering perspective on America's $200+ trillion in total obligations (this includes off-balance sheet debt). While not yet shorting markets, Rogers cautions that current market complacency reminds him of previous peaks, and explains why he's holding U.S. dollars despite long-term concerns about America's financial future.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. https://public.com/julia ✨

Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. Public Investing offers a High-Yield Cash Account where funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance; Public Investing is not a bank. 

Treasury accounts offering 6 months T-Bills are offered by Jiko Securities, Inc.,member FINRA & SIPC. Securities in your account are protected up to $500,000. For details: www.sipc.org. Banking services and the Bank Accounts are provided by Jiko Bank, a division of Mid- Central National Bank. For U.S. Investments in T-bills: Not FDIC Insured; No Bank Guarantee; May Lose Value. Treasuries risk disclosures, see https://jiko.io/docs/treasuries_risk_disclosure.pdf. See public.com/#disclosures-main 

A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC and includes 10 investment-grade and high-yield bonds. As of [11/08/24], the average, annualized yield to worst (YTW) across all ten bonds is greater than 6%. A bond’s YTW is not “locked in” until the bond is purchased and is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTW of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity or if the issuer defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, there is no way to know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or by how much they will decline. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. All investing involves risk. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Visit public.com/bond-account to learn more

Timestamps:

00:03 Introduction and welcome Jim Rogers

00:56 Big picture view on markets and economy

02:31 Discussion of market bubble conditions

03:22 Recent portfolio reductions

04:27 China and Uzbekistan investments

07:36 China market outlook

09:24 Signs of market hysteria to watch for

11:37 Reaction to election and market complacency

14:04 U.S. debt situation ($200T+ including off-balance sheet)

17:11 U.S. dollar outlook and safe havens

19:03 Views on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies

20:50 Gold vs. silver investment thesis

22:29 Bond market outlook and inflation

24:27 Federal Reserve rate cuts discussion

26:36 Long-term investment trends

29:26 Discussion of new tariff proposals

31:06 Department of Government Efficiency outlook

33:29 Final thoughts and personal debt warning

With over 40 years of Wall Street experience and known for correctly predicting the 1987 market crash, Peter Grandich joined the Julia La Roche Show (Ep. 214) to discuss America's unsustainable debt path, the BRICS nations' challenge to U.S. dominance, his concerns about a coming debt implosion, and why "less is more" should be the guiding principle for both personal and government finances, while also sharing a powerful personal story about forgiveness and mental health.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. https://public.com/julia ✨

Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. Public Investing offers a High-Yield Cash Account where funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance; Public Investing is not a bank. 

Treasury accounts offering 6 months T-Bills are offered by Jiko Securities, Inc.,member FINRA & SIPC. Securities in your account are protected up to $500,000. For details: www.sipc.org. Banking services and the Bank Accounts are provided by Jiko Bank, a division of Mid- Central National Bank. For U.S. Investments in T-bills: Not FDIC Insured; No Bank Guarantee; May Lose Value. Treasuries risk disclosures, see https://jiko.io/docs/treasuries_risk_disclosure.pdf. See public.com/#disclosures-main 

A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC and includes 10 investment-grade and high-yield bonds. As of [11/08/24], the average, annualized yield to worst (YTW) across all ten bonds is greater than 6%. A bond’s YTW is not “locked in” until the bond is purchased and is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTW of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity or if the issuer defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, there is no way to know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or by how much they will decline. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. All investing involves risk. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Visit public.com/bond-account to learn more

Timestamps:

00:03 Introduction to Peter Grandich

01:07 Overview of America's debt problem and market outlook

03:14 Discussion of retirement and aging crisis

05:23 America's path and changing consumer habits

07:48 Warning about young financial advisors' market experience

09:42 Story behind "Wall Street Whiz Kid" title and 1987 crash

11:19 Market outlook and Trump administration impact

16:43 BRICS discussion and Wall Street's "biggest blunder"

21:11 Portfolio implications of BRICS development

24:34 Building a financial ark and investment strategy

27:36 Trump administration challenges and debt situation

30:02 Government employment and spending concerns

34:56 Retirement crisis and social security challenges

40:26 Gold outlook and critique of Bitcoin

48:15 Debt implosion as biggest risk

51:32 Personal story of forgiveness and mental health

55:21 Closing thoughts on gratitude and helping others

Links:

https://x.com/PeterGrandich

https://petergrandich.com/

https://www.amazon.com/Confessions-FORMER-Wall-Street-Whiz/dp/B096LPRYW6

Ben Hunt, the author of Epsilon Theory (https://www.epsilontheory.com/) and co-founder of Second Foundation Partners, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss narratives and how they shape everything from financial markets to politics.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. https://public.com/julia ✨

Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. Public Investing offers a High-Yield Cash Account where funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance; Public Investing is not a bank. 

Treasury accounts offering 6 months T-Bills are offered by Jiko Securities, Inc.,member FINRA & SIPC. Securities in your account are protected up to $500,000. For details: www.sipc.org. Banking services and the Bank Accounts are provided by Jiko Bank, a division of Mid- Central National Bank. For U.S. Investments in T-bills: Not FDIC Insured; No Bank Guarantee; May Lose Value. Treasuries risk disclosures, see https://jiko.io/docs/treasuries_risk_disclosure.pdf. See public.com/#disclosures-main 

A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC and includes 10 investment-grade and high-yield bonds. As of [11/08/24], the average, annualized yield to worst (YTW) across all ten bonds is greater than 6%. A bond’s YTW is not “locked in” until the bond is purchased and is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTW of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity or if the issuer defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, there is no way to know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or by how much they will decline. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. All investing involves risk. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Visit public.com/bond-account to learn more

00:00 Introduction to Ben Hunt

01:00 Narrative of narrative

03:08 Narratives behind markets

07:00 Wall Street is a story construction machine

09:08 Bitcoin "number go up" story, narrative evolution

20:00 Post-election market narratives

22:42 Shift from "structural" to "WTF" animal spirits

25:00 Managing market exits and exposure

30:17 How quickly narratives change

36:48 Discussion of "fiat news" concept

44:18 Evolution of semantic layer in markets

47:24 Closing thoughts on understanding storytelling systems

Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of the book, “Capital Wars: The Rise Of Global Liquidity,” returns to The Julia La Roche for episode 212 to discuss the global liquidity cycle, markets, and why there's uncertainty in the year ahead.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. https://public.com/julia ✨

Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. Public Investing offers a High-Yield Cash Account where funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance; Public Investing is not a bank. 

Treasury accounts offering 6 months T-Bills are offered by Jiko Securities, Inc.,member FINRA & SIPC. Securities in your account are protected up to $500,000. For details: www.sipc.org. Banking services and the Bank Accounts are provided by Jiko Bank, a division of Mid- Central National Bank. For U.S. Investments in T-bills: Not FDIC Insured; No Bank Guarantee; May Lose Value. Treasuries risk disclosures, see https://jiko.io/docs/treasuries_risk_disclosure.pdf. See public.com/#disclosures-main 

A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC and includes 10 investment-grade and high-yield bonds. As of [11/08/24], the average, annualized yield to worst (YTW) across all ten bonds is greater than 6%. A bond’s YTW is not “locked in” until the bond is purchased and is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTW of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity or if the issuer defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, there is no way to know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or by how much they will decline. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. All investing involves risk. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Visit public.com/bond-account to learn more

Links: 

Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/

Twitter/X https://x.com/crossbordercap

Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/

Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392902

Timestamps:

00:08 Introduction to Michael Howell

01:00 Global liquidity and market cycles overview

03:10 Global liquidity cycle visualization and trends

06:14 Discussion of debt refinancing vs. new capital financing

09:02 The approaching debt maturity wall and market challenges

12:46 Warning signs and historical financial crises

16:04 Bond market concerns and inflation outlook

21:37 Yield curve analysis and market distortions

23:24 Investment strategy recommendations

26:18 Gold and cryptocurrency as monetary inflation hedges

28:36 Investment regime cycles explanation

33:02 2025 outlook and mounting challenges

34:53 China's economic situation and policy constraints

39:10 Stock market euphoria vs. bond market signals

41:20 Final thoughts and portfolio allocation advice