The Julia La Roche Show

Legendary economist Dr. A. Gary Shilling, President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic consulting firm and a registered investment advisor, joins Julia La Roche on episode on episode 207 to discuss the state of the economy.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

Timestamps:

# Timestamps for Dr. Gary Shilling Interview

00:00 Welcome Dr. Shilling

00:55 Macro view, analysis of labor markets and recent employment data

02:39 Fed's priorities and concerns about labor market softening

03:26 Discussion of upcoming Fed meeting and rate cut expectations

04:59 Explanation of soft landings vs recessions

07:26 Analysis of current economic imbalances

09:14 Assessment of recession probability (40-50%)

12:52 Discussion of economic forecasting as art vs science

16:17 Analysis of bond market outlook

19:36 Discussion of inflation expectations and bond yields

22:42 Portfolio positioning and investment opportunities

24:06 Analysis of India vs China investment outlook

27:11 Assessment of upcoming US election implications

28:49 Discussion of debt and deficit issues

31:15 Analysis of US dollar's reserve currency status

32:36 Closing remarks and contact information

Access Dr. Shilling's monthly newsletter INSIGHT by calling this toll free number (1-888-346-7444) or visiting his website (https://www.agaryshilling.com/).

Grant Williams, author of “Things That Make You Go Hmmm…” and host of The Grant Williams podcast, joins Julia La Roche on episode 206 for a wide-ranging conversation on macro.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

Links:

https://www.grant-williams.com/

https://twitter.com/ttmygh

Timestamps:

01:07 Overview of current market confusion and multiple risks

03:33 Discussion of monetary policy and debt challenges

05:22 Analysis of BRICS developments and global shifts

07:49 Framework for assessing negative outcomes

09:35 Discussion of millennial investors and passive investing

14:26 Analysis of inflation and Federal Reserve credibility

17:19 Impact of inflation on society and purchasing power

22:11 Discussion of affordability and political implications

25:31 Analysis of public sentiment and policy constraints

31:16 Geopolitical considerations and policy options

35:01 Portfolio construction and preservation strategies

42:24 Bond market reactions and loss of Fed credibility

45:06 Breakdown of trust in financial system

48:52 Fourth Turning framework and implications

50:45 Potential factors that could alter thesis

52:43 Long-term perspective on gold investment

54:47 Analysis of silver as monetary metal

57:17 Closing thoughts on navigating current environment

Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 205 to discuss the macro view, why the market is signaling the Fed's rate cut was a mistake, the dynamics of the labor market, and the presidential election.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

Links:

BiancoResearch.com

BiancoAdvisors.com

x.com/biancoresearch

00:00 Intro and welcome Jim

01:00 Analysis of Fed's 50 basis point rate cut and market reaction

04:27 Discussion of labor market and population growth impact

06:53 Analysis of ADP data and small business employment

09:11 Impact of immigration on economic statistics

11:20 Fed's political vs partisan nature in rate decisions

14:13 Explanation of "no landing" economic scenario

17:06 Outlook for bonds and inflation impact

19:59 Stock market return expectations

22:25 Bond market competition with stocks

23:33 Demographics and bear market discussion

26:28 Analysis of election betting markets and probabilities

31:41 Inflation outlook regardless of election outcome

33:04 Discussion of inflation rates vs cumulative price increases

37:11 Implications of a 3% inflation world

40:48 Closing remarks and information about Bianco Research

Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo @DavidWooUnbound, CEO of David Woo Unbound, a global forum devoted to the promotion of fact-based debates about markets, politics, and economics, joins Julia La Roche on episode 204 for a wide-ranging conversation on economics and politics and geopolitics.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

Woo, the former head of Global Interest Rates, Foreign Exchange, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research at Bank of America, is known for some of his bold and contrarian calls, including Trump winning the presidential race in 2016 (https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/08/bofaml-analyst-got-ovation-from-co-workers-the-morning-after-election.html), and that the 2020 US presidential election would be much closer than expected and the results contested (https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-dangerous-groupthink-stalking-wall-street-20210909-p58q48).

Links:

Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound

Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction and welcome David Woo

00:59 Overview of macro picture, analysis of US labor market and economic data

03:22 Discussion on Chinese economy and stimulus measures

05:46 Impact of US-China rivalry on European economy, especially Germany

08:07 Critique of Federal Reserve's recent rate cut decision

10:28 Explanation of illegal immigration's impact on economic data

13:29 Analysis of upcoming US election and potential market impacts

16:57 Discussion on potential Israeli attack on Iran before US election

21:13 Analysis of Iran's military capabilities and potential conflict

25:36 Reasons for potential Israeli attack before US election

31:03 Investment strategies for different election scenarios

36:05 Analysis of polling data and election predictions

51:30 Demographic analysis of voter support for candidates

54:49 Discussion on risks to Trump's candidacy

57:27 Potential implications of a Trump victory

59:53 Speculations on potential Trump administration policies and team

In episode 203, David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, joined Julia to discuss the current economic landscape and his outlook for the future.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

In this episode, Rosenberg challenged the prevailing optimism about the U.S. economy, arguing that the apparent strength in GDP numbers is largely due to unsustainable government spending. He highlighted discrepancies between official data and other economic indicators, suggesting that the economy may be weaker than it appears. Rosenberg expressed concern about the stock market's high valuations, drawing parallels to previous market bubbles. He warned of potential risks, including a possible recession in 2025, and discussed the dangers of excessive exposure to equities, particularly among older investors. Rosenberg advocated for a more defensive investment strategy, recommending an increased allocation to bonds and gold, while maintaining a cautious approach to equities. Throughout the conversation, he emphasized the importance of understanding historical patterns and the risks of "new era" thinking in financial markets.

Links:

https://rosenbergresearch.com/

https://x.com/EconguyRosie

Timestamps:

00:23 Introduction and overview of current economic situation

01:03 Discussion on GDP growth and survey data divergence

02:57 Analysis of the Fed's Beige Book and economic indicators

05:19 Impact of government spending on GDP numbers

08:18 Discussion on fiscal policy and upcoming election

10:49 Analysis of government employment data and labor market

13:31 Long-term effects of fiscal policy

15:15 Lack of capital spending cycle and global economic slowdown

17:37 Diffusion analysis of the US economy

19:54 Potential fiscal policy changes after the election

21:10 Discussion on potential recession and historical comparisons

25:15 Analysis of interest rates and debt service costs

27:43 Lags in economic policy effects

31:35 Job report revisions and data reliability issues

35:43 Stock market valuation and earnings growth

39:21 Risks in current stock market valuations

42:26 Discussion on portfolio rebalancing and asset allocation

46:40 Concerns about passive index investing

50:01 Potential impact of stock market decline on the economy

54:15 Investment strategy and portfolio allocation

57:22 Approach to investing in bonds

01:00:45 Total return expectations for bonds

01:02:27 Parting thoughts

Steve H. Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and the founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, joins Julia La Roche on episode 202 for a conversation on the state of the economy, the money supply, inflation, and the upcoming election.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only.  *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

Links:

Twitter/X: https://x.com/steve_hanke

Capital, Interest, and Waiting: Controversies, Puzzles, and New Additions to Capital Theory https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-63398-0

Making Money Work: How to Rewrite the Rules of Our Financial System:

https://www.amazon.com/Making-Money-Work-Rewrite-Financial/dp/1394257260

https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/making-money-work-matt-sekerke/1146170520

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction and welcome Professor Hanke

02:06 Discussion on China's economy and inflation

04:29 U.S. economy and money supply contraction

07:29 European economic situation

10:41 Focus on money supply vs interest rates

15:59 Discussion on job report revisions and data reliability

21:17 Inflation forecast and bond yields

25:57 Fed's record on predicting economic trends

27:29 Book recommendations on economic theory

31:57 Analysis of upcoming election (polls vs prediction markets)

38:17 Economic policies of candidates

42:40 Industrial policy and protectionism

45:15 Government spending as percentage of GDP

48:40 Parting thoughts and new book announcements

50:22 Closing remarks

Eric Basmajian, founder and CEO of EPB Research, joins Julia on episode 201 to discuss the economy, housing market dynamics, outlook on unemployment trends, and the long-term economic factors, including the effects of increasing government size on private sector growth.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

Links:

Website: https://www.epbresearch.com/

Twitter/X: https://x.com/EPBResearch

Substack: https://epbresearch.substack.com/

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction and welcome Eric Basmajian

01:03 Macro view + Eric's four economies framework

03:17 Explanation of leading, cyclical, aggregate, and lagging economies

07:29 Current state of the economy and growth rates

09:32 How to discern signal from noise in economic data

13:15 Discussion on economic revisions and their significance

16:23 Addressing common misconceptions about the economy

20:55 Inflation trends and relationship to the business cycle

23:03 Analysis of Fed's September rate cut decision

25:22 Impact of backlogs on economic activity post-COVID

30:48 Overview of the residential housing cycle

33:55 Current housing market supply and demand dynamics

37:08 Forecast for unemployment rate trends

43:53 Long-term economic outlook factors (debt, demographics, government size)

48:16 Declining growth rates in real private sector income

50:51 Impact of increasing government size on economic growth

54:15 Optimal government size for economic growth

57:37 Connection between rising home prices and demographic changes

Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns for episode 200 to discuss the economy, the Fed, upcoming bank earnings, the 2024 election, and more.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

Links:

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/

00:00 Introduction and welcome Chris Whalen

01:10 Macro view and Federal Reserve actions

02:56 Fed's rate cut mistake and implications

05:14 Fed's credibility and narrative challenges

07:12 Global economic outlook and banking sector issues

09:13 Inflation and its impact on different economic segments

12:09 Analysis of proposed first-time homebuyer policy

15:01 Discussion on oil markets and OPEC

16:48 US 10-year yields and mortgage rates

19:46 Outlook for upcoming bank earnings

22:19 Basel Accord and banking regulation issues

26:25 Market risks and bank solvency concerns

28:16 Implications of rising 10-year Treasury yields

30:36 2024 US election outlook and key issues

33:00 Closing thoughts and upcoming book releases

Josh Brown, co-founder and CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, a New York City-based investment advisory firm managing over $5 billion, joins Julia La Roche on episode 199. Josh is a frequent commentator on CNBC's "Halftime Report," and the author of four books, including his newest, "You Weren't Supposed To See That: Secrets Every Investor Should Know."

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

Book: https://www.amazon.com/You-Werent-Supposed-See-That/dp/180409059X

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction and welcome Josh Brown

02:05 The current state of the economy and markets

06:18 Abundance mindset vs scarcity mindset in investing

10:42 Josh's journey from blogging to meeting Barry Ritholtz

15:08 Overcoming imposter syndrome and taking risks

18:25 Josh's experience in boiler rooms and being honest about his past 21:30 Discussing Josh's personal story and education

25:58 "You Weren't Supposed to See That"

29:37 Current market trends and investment philosophy

34:20 The role of financial advisors during market volatility

38:45 Building a media empire in finance

43:12 The importance of communication in wealth management

47:30 Reflecting on career growth and luck in the industry

50:15 The asymmetry of putting yourself out there and final thoughts

Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Real Vision and author of the Global Macro Investor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 198 to share his macro outlook and why he thinks we're headed for an Economic Singularity with the rise of AI.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

Links:

00:00 Welcome Raoul Pal and Real Vision's 10-year anniversary

01:39 The Everything Code and macro cycles explained

05:38 Explaining liquidity and its sources

07:29 Central banks, liquidity, and currency debasement

11:42 Risk-taking and asset performance in the current environment

15:02 The exciting macro setup and market opportunities ahead

17:43 Addressing misconceptions about recessions and market bubbles

22:23 Federal Reserve rate cuts and inflation outlook

25:58 Raoul's evolution to a more optimistic market view

34:45 The concept of economic singularity explained

38:20 AI's impact on productivity and economic growth

42:20 Preparing for the economic singularity in the next 6 years

43:58 Bitcoin as a high-performing asset

45:07 Real Vision's past and future outlook

48:58 Closing thoughts on "unf***ing your future"