New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 273 to discuss the markets and the economy.

Sponsors:

Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia

Links:

How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond

Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/

00:00 Introduction: Larry McDonald, founder of the Bear Traps Report

00:47 Getting long high beta names in April, now lightening positions

02:18 Add high beta into fear/panic, lighten into complacency

04:11 Warning about "Liz Truss moment" for America - bond panic scenario

06:38 Debt ceiling suspension creates $1.7 trillion bond issuance catch-up

08:04 Bessent's "bag of tricks" to fight bond vigilantes

09:33 Dollar counter-trend rally from front-end Treasury issuance

11:41 Mechanics of dollar rally: need dollars to buy Treasuries

13:53 Emerging market bonds outperforming long-term Treasuries

16:14 Question whether "bag of tricks" arrives on time to help bonds

17:05 Financial repression explanation: suppress rates below inflation

18:40 Bond vigilantes back despite Bessent's interventions

19:35 Commodities renaissance: copper names up 200-300% over 5 years

21:51 New portfolio construction: gold, copper, uranium, lithium miners

24:08 Risk: banks exposed to $5 trillion in commercial real estate debt

25:09 Jamie Dimon and Buffett selling banks at "alarming pace"

26:31 Optimistic on lithium trade and Chile election outcome

26:55 Expecting 100 basis points in rate cuts due to debt burden

28:12 Coal names oversold, offshore drilling opportunities

30:00 Closing remarks

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to the show. He argues the Fed is "clearly late" in addressing a commercial real estate nightmare while consumer credit remains quiet, creating a "silent recession" ignored by markets. He warns the "Big Beautiful Bill" will drive inflation higher despite Trump's demands for rate cuts, with Treasury Secretary Bessent's shift to T-bill issuance representing a "last resort before default." Whalen predicts NYC mayoral candidate Mamdani will win and destroy real estate values with rent freezes, while inflation radicalizes politics nationwide. He advocates for gold as central banks abandon dollars, positioning in short-term treasuries and bank preferreds, and warns America needs an Argentina-style "Milei moment" crisis to force real change.

Sponsors:

Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia

Links:    

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/   

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction: Chris Whalen

00:59 Fed is "clearly late" - commercial side is a nightmare

02:31 Fed late but no rate cuts coming soon due to fiscal deficits

04:28 Big beautiful bill will cause higher inflation and long rates

06:48 Silent recession in commercial real estate and private credit

09:18 NYC mayoral race: Mamdani 70% chance, will freeze rents

11:40 Wealthy exodus from NYC unlikely - condos vs. rentals

13:00 Inflation radicalizing Democratic Party politics

14:23 America needs Argentina "Milei moment" when crisis hits

16:13 Bessent switching to T-bills - last resort before default

19:17 Trump mismanaging relationship with Powell

20:45 Bank sector: deflation in lending, lack of credit demand

22:35 Private equity "train wreck" ignored by Fed stress tests

24:10 Dollar decline signals gold returning as reserve asset

25:30 Physical gold vs. ETFs discussion

27:12 Portfolio positioning: gold, bank preferreds, short-term treasuries

29:51 Housing volumes down 20-25%, lock-in effect persists

32:02 Southern overbuilding compressing million-dollar homes

35:20 Warning about market reaction to big beautiful bill

Meredith Whitney, CEO of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss her outlook on a bifurcated economy where 52% of households are entering their second recession since COVID stimulus ended, while high-end consumers continue driving economic growth.

Sponsors:

Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia⁠

Kalshi: ⁠https://kalshi.com/julia

Links:

https://meredithwhitneyllc.com/

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro

0:54 Macro outlook and consumer segmentation

2:37 Recession expectations for Main Street

4:19 Market distortions and wealth effects

4:51 Dollar stores as economic indicator

6:17 Dollar store vs Walmart consumer dynamics

7:57 Trading down narrative discussion

8:26 Segmented recession clarification

8:54 Housing market outlook

9:23 Worst housing market in decades

11:12 Senior demographics and aging in place

12:32 First-time homebuyer challenges

14:25 Housing bubble discussion

15:29 Avocado toast generation (24-38 age group)

17:09 Experiential spending and lifestyle patterns

19:53 Nation's fiscal picture and debt concerns

22:44 Interest rates and Treasury market risks

24:31 Fed's impossible situation with stagflation

25:42 Rate cut predictions

27:04 Underappreciated risks and Treasury concerns

28:30 Home equity as "get out of jail free card"

30:15 Where to find Meredith's work and closing thoughts

David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes recession odds are higher than 2022 despite nobody expecting one, pointing to Fed staff forecasting 50% recession probability and the most downbeat Beige Book since 1980. Rosenberg criticizes Powell for calling the economy "solid" while real GDP has been negative sequentially in 2 of the past 3 months and survey data suggests 1% contraction. He highlights a major market dichotomy with stocks up 24% while the dollar is in an 11% bear market, suggesting something is fundamentally wrong. The housing market faces a negative wealth effect as supply-demand gaps widen and prices start cracking.

Sponsors:

Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia⁠

Kalshi: ⁠https://kalshi.com/julia

Links:

https://rosenbergresearch.com/

https://x.com/EconguyRosie

Timestamps:

00:01 - Introduction: Dave Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research

00:49 - "Meat grinder roller coaster ride" - elevated policy uncertainty

02:15 - Tail risks removed: no trade war, regional conflict, or fiscal cliff

05:35 - S&P 500 multiple expansion: 18 to 22 in three months (4 sigma event)

08:30 - Housing market in "huge state of disarray" - prices starting to crack

11:22 - Survey data consistent with economy contracting at 1% annual rate

13:20 - Real GDP negative sequentially in 2 of past 3 months

15:24 - Nobody talking about recession despite higher odds than 2022

18:18 - Recession probabilities are binary - "zero or 100, not 60% pregnant"

21:18 - Mistakes from 2022-2023: didn't anticipate fiscal stimulus scale

25:34 - Big beautiful bill not stimulative - just extending status quo

28:20 - Housing supply-demand gap widening, negative wealth effect coming

32:42 - S&P 500 became growth index, small caps still in correction

36:00 - Fed staff said recession odds equal to GDP baseline forecast (50%)

38:56 - Beige book: economy declining slightly, more downbeat than 2007

44:32 - Powell calling economy "solid" despite weak data - credibility issue

48:04 - Fed damaged by "transitory" mistake, protecting legacy

55:17 - Next Fed Chair speculation: wants someone he can "push around"

59:04 - US dollar down 11% in bear market while stocks up 24%

01:04:13 - Closing: importance of liquidity and diversification

Luke Gromen, founder of FFTT, joins the Julia La Roche Show for episode 269 for his latest macro update. Gromen argues the US government is in fiscal dominance, spending over 100% of tax receipts on entitlements and interest payments alone. He says Fed Chair Powell faces a binary choice between crushing the dollar through inflation or crushing the bond market through higher rates. Gromen notes that funding currency relationships between the yen and dollar have broken down, signaling both central banks are cornered. He advocates getting out of government bonds and into hard assets like gold and Bitcoin, predicting that retail investors holding long-term Treasuries will be the biggest losers. Gromen believes Trump officials are "begging" for rate cuts because they know the fiscal math doesn't work without negative real interest rates.

Sponsors:

Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia⁠

Kalshi: ⁠https://kalshi.com/julia

Links:

website: https://fftt-llc.com/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/lukegromen

00:00 Introduction and welcome back Luke Gromen

01:01 Funding currency relationships breaking down

07:58 Meta trade: exit government bonds, buy hard assets

12:27 Gold still early - central banks driving demand

14:47 Trump officials begging for rate cuts - Fed cornered

16:56 Stablecoin plan requires much higher Bitcoin

20:33 Dollar/bond correlations broken - foreigners selling Treasuries

27:11 Powell's binary choice: crush dollar or bonds

34:14 Fiscal dominance: interest expense >95% of receipts

37:08 DOGE failed - needed dollar devaluation first

39:25 Portfolio: overweight gold, Bitcoin

45:18 Two scenarios: Powell cuts vs. doesn't cut rates

48:54 Retail investors stuck holding long-term bonds

52:04 Closing remarks

Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), joins Julia La Roche on episode 268, warning of a coming "grand reconciliation" where credit, stock, and real estate bubbles will burst. He argues the US debt is unsustainable, with the next recession triggering $4-6 trillion annual deficits. Pento predicts Trump will replace Powell with an "obsequious sycophant" in May 2026 who will slash rates to zero, causing long-term rates to spike and creating a "debt death spiral." He recommends hard assets like gold and platinum, which he expects will "scream higher" in 2026, and emphasizes the critical importance of active management to navigate the coming crisis.

Sponsors:

Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia⁠

Kalshi: ⁠https://kalshi.com/julia

Links:

https://pentoport.com/

https://twitter.com/michaelpento

0:00 Intro and welcome Michael

01:01 - Macro picture

06:16 - Grand reconciliation coming: debt, real estate, stocks

11:27 - Case for platinum and gold - platinum breakout

14:32 - Hard assets will "scream higher" in 2026

17:11 - Fed should be defunct - market should set rates

22:08 - Next recession: deficit jumps to $4-6 trillion

25:21 - US debt

32:29 - 2026

34:38 - Next Fed chair will be "obsequious sycophant"

38:03 - Closing remarks

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, and George Goncalves, Head of U.S. Macro Strategy at MUFG, join Julia La Roche in-studio on FOMC day, where they break down the Fed's decision to leave rates unchanged, the state of the economy, and the interest rate outlook.

Sponsors:

Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia⁠

Kalshi: ⁠https://kalshi.com/julia

Links:

https://www.mufgresearch.com/

George's Twitter/X: https://x.com/bondstrategist

QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/

Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth

Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@UCYPBim2ARV9Yrqci0ljokFA

Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

00:00 - Danielle: Fed "willfully blind" to economic reality 02:52 - Record 5.3% of Americans working multiple jobs 05:00 - Real unemployment is 4.5-4.6%, not reported 4.2% 08:07 - Debate: Is the Fed being political? 10:00 - George: "More than one economy" - rates hurting different groups 16:28 - Net worth declined via both stocks and real estate in Q1 21:57 - Interest expense is fastest growing budget item 26:06 - Next Fed Chair prediction: Waller, Warsh, Bessent front-runners 32:12 - Corporate bankruptcies highest since 2010 38:49 - Danielle: US entered recession Q1 2024, back in one now 40:26 - Top 10% of earners drive 49.7% of consumption 43:52 - What keeps them up at night: False sense of security

Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media and co-founder of Battle Bank, joins the Julia La Roche Show for episode 266 for his quarterly appearance. In this episode, Rule predicts the US dollar will lose 75% of its purchasing power over the next decade, similar to the 1970s crisis. He explains that $130 trillion in total government liabilities against $141 trillion in private wealth creates unsolvable math that can only be resolved through inflation. Rule calls Trump's presidency a failure, dismissing DOGE as fiction and tariffs as harmful taxes. He believes the US is already in recession based on oil prices and recommends gold (potentially $10,000+), uranium, and copper investments. Drawing parallels to 1968-1980, Rule expects 10-12 years of economic difficulty but says America's culture will survive. His main message: individuals must prepare financially because government support systems are unsustainable.

Sponsors:

Monetary Metals. ⁠https://monetary-metals.com/julia⁠

Kalshi: ⁠https://kalshi.com/julia

Symposium: https://registration.allintheloop.net/register/event/rick-rule-symposium-2025-ccha?via=julia

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome and intro00:41 - Rule Natural Resources Symposium (July 7-11, Boca Raton)04:32 - Trump presidency assessment: DOGE failure, tariffs are taxes07:47 - 10-12 years of reckoning ahead, comparing to 1970s crisis09:34 - Prediction: US dollar will decline 75% over next decade11:46 - $130 trillion total debt vs $141 trillion private net worth18:44 - CPI vs real inflation - why the math doesn't work22:55 - Why DOGE was fiction from the start28:51 - Gold moving on purchasing power fears, could hit $10,000+38:43 - Copper supply shortages despite near-term economic weakness40:47 - "I believe we're in a recession" - oil prices signal soft demand44:31 - Fed rate cuts would signal abandoning dollar defense47:12 - Silver phases: gold leads, then generalist investors drive silver explosive moves50:23 - Uranium as "total no brainer" - billion people need electricity54:13 - Next decade different from benign 1982-2022 period55:00 - Personal responsibility: invest in yourself, society won't help

Professor Steve H. Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and the founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, joins Julia La Roche on episode 265 to discuss the economy and his new book "Making Money Work: How to Rewrite the Rules of Our Financial System."

Sponsors:

Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia

In this episode, Hanke warns of an 80% recession probability by year-end, driven by regime uncertainty from Trump's policy changes and money supply contraction since April 2022. He critiques the Federal Reserve's narrow focus on interest rates while ignoring quantitative tightening and argues for putting money supply and commercial banks back at the center of monetary policy. Hanke explains how Fed policies create wealth inequality by inflating asset prices that benefit the rich, advocating for "neutrality" as the goal of monetary policy. He dismisses Trump's "big beautiful bill" as fiscally irresponsible and calls for a constitutional convention to implement a Swiss-style debt brake. The conversation covers his new book's thesis that monetary policy should focus on money supply growth rather than interest rates, with commercial banks producing 80% of the money supply through lending.

Links:

Twitter/X: https://x.com/steve_hanke

Making Money Work book: https://www.amazon.com/Making-Money-Work-Rewrite-Financial/dp/1394257260

00:00 - Introduction of Professor Steve Hanke

01:28 - Regime uncertainty concept and Trump's policy changes

03:52 - Tariffs as taxes on international transactions

06:20 - 80% recession probability by end of year

08:31 - Money supply contraction since April 2022

10:51 - Bubble indicator and market complacency discussion

12:52 - Family call interruption from Dominican Republic

13:24 - Market in bubble territory explanation

16:11 - Federal Reserve critique and FOMC meeting outlook

18:27 - Quantitative tightening vs interest rate focus

19:04 - Three pillars of the book's thesis

25:46 - Neutrality as monetary policy objective

29:30 - How Fed policy creates wealth inequality

32:15 - Catalyst for writing the book

37:09 - "Big beautiful bill" critique and fiscal concerns

42:34 - Swiss debt brake constitutional solution

46:25 - Key prices to watch: gold, 10-year yields, dollar-euro, stocks

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog and author of "Inflated: Money, Debt and the American Dream," returns to the show with a monthly update on markets and the economy.

Sponsors:

Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia

In this episode, Whalen argues the Fed's easy money era is over, with no rate cuts coming this year and traditional monetary policy failing to help Main Street. He warns of a "silent subprime crisis" brewing in multifamily real estate and sees stagflation ahead - low growth with persistent inflation eating away at real purchasing power. Whalen advocates for gold as protection against currency debasement and explains why recession odds have dropped to 27% despite structural economic challenges from commercial real estate to student loan repayments as pandemic-era programs wind down.

Links:    

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/   

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Timestamps:

00:10 - Introduction of Chris Whalen

02:11 - Big picture market outlook and elevated interest rates

04:30 - No rate cuts coming this year discussion

05:38 - Trump's "big beautiful bill" and Senate dynamics

06:17 - Fed balance sheet reduction and inflation persistence

08:02 - Silent subprime crisis in multifamily real estate

09:13 - Mixed bag stock market outlook explanation

10:42 - Recession probability

13:20 - Real estate opportunities and putting deals together

14:04 - Jay Gould and Jim Fisk arbitrage between gold and paper

16:57 - Fed's 2% inflation policy and its impact on savers

18:20 - Gold as anti-dollar hedge discussion

19:38 - Fall of fiat and return to sound money debate

21:00 - Why dropping rates no longer stimulates Main Street

22:13 - Chris's proposal to freeze government spending

24:11 - Banking system fluff and lack of credit demand

25:46 - Real vs nominal growth and stagflation

27:43 - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac conservatorship discussion

30:00 - Closing thoughts and where to find Chris's work