The Julia La Roche Show

Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Real Vision and Exponential Age Asset Management and author of the Global Macro Investor, joins Julia to discuss his new book, The Everything Code. He argues that liquidity drives nearly all market returns, and that governments now service their debts by debasing money at about 8% a year. That, he says, is why home prices outrun incomes and why traditional assets like real estate, gold and a 60/40 portfolio don’t actually get you ahead. He calls the November 5 sell-off noise in a market short on liquidity, and makes the case that AI isn’t a bubble: demand is infinite, the hyperscalers have “more money than God,” and every layer of the AI stack is highly profitable. Pal explains why he no longer believes big systemic recessions can happen, since debasement works like a put option we all pay for. He also explains why he thinks the economy as we know it starts to break down by 2030, as AI agents become economic actors. Plus: why crypto is built for an agent economy, why he’s buying digital art, and why being human, through attention and experiences, becomes more valuable.

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Website: https://raoulpal.com/

Timestamps:

0:00 Preview: why traditional assets won’t get you ahead

0:25 Welcome Raoul Pal and The Everything Code

1:24 The macro setup: liquidity is restricted

2:41 A mid-cycle pause

3:03 How liquidity actually works

3:45 Aging populations, debt and “the greatest chart in macro”

5:03 Where new money comes from

6:14 The only two assets that beat debasement

7:53 The 8% debasement hurdle

8:42 Why home prices outrun incomes

12:16 The November 5 sell-off

14:48 Why this isn’t 2000 or the railroads

15:32 Anthropic and supernormal profits

18:58 Could politics stop AI?

20:03 Behind the “we’re all going to die” narrative

21:51 Debunking the AI bubble bear case

24:04 Why big recessions are a thing of the past

25:24 Debasement as a put option

28:22 How 2020 changed his mind

29:39 The economic singularity by 2030

33:06 Agents multiplying at a double exponential

33:44 When AI agents start building businesses

36:33 How to prepare: invest in it

37:13 Why crypto is built for agents

39:31 Why he’s buying digital art

41:24 AI as the Fourth Turning

42:22 What humans will do: attention and experiences

45:15 His contrarian call

46:51 Where to find Raoul

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris breaks down a wild week: the midterms, the November 5 sell-off and a hot jobs report. He calls the Republican losses an “extinction event,” but argues it could be good for mainstream Republicans and moderate Democrats, and says Democrats now own the affordability issue. With 165,000 jobs added in October and the economy still running hot, he expects Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, now free of election-year politics, to hike in December. Whalen sees the sell-off as a possible entry point but says not to hurry. He warns of diesel shortages and a jump in food prices next year, with mortgage rates near 7.4%. Plus: why he expects consolidation in the mortgage industry and REITs exiting, why manufactured housing is a bright spot, and why he disagrees with Jim Bianco on bonds and doesn’t see the 10-year at 4%. He also explains why he’s adding to gold, which he thinks has found a floor. A viewer asks why gold has gone nowhere while the debt has climbed $3 trillion.

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Timestamps:

0:00 Preview: how high would Warsh have to hike?

0:25 Welcome to The Wrap, in studio

0:47 Remember the 5th of November: midterms and the sell-off

1:13 Why the GOP loss could be a good thing

3:06 “Extinction event” and the moderate Democrats’ win

4:04 Jobs day: 165,000 jobs in October

4:24 How high would Warsh have to hike?

4:42 Democrats now own affordability: diesel and food prices

6:41 Should you worry about the sell-off?

7:16 Worries in the mortgage industry

8:09 What it would take: 6.5% mortgages

9:31 Should we get used to 7% mortgages?

10:53 Manufactured housing as a solution

12:33 The GOP’s path to recovery

16:06 The next two years for investors: gridlock

17:45 Where to invest now: energy, bonds, financials

18:22 Bonds: why the 10-year won’t hit 4%

21:24 Does the new Congress change inflation?

22:37 Warsh is free to hike: look to December

24:15 Is there a 10-year yield he’d buy?

26:30 Gold: a short-term move or something more?

28:10 Bank picks: Flagstar and the Canadian banks

30:44 Viewer question: why has gold gone nowhere as debt climbed?

32:44 What to watch next week

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock and author of The Monetary House of Cards, joins Julia the morning after the midterms with a bold call: the bottom is in, and the final run of the longest bull market of our lifetimes starts now. He expects the Nasdaq to rally about 30%, with a dip around Thanksgiving and a top around January. Then a bust that he says follows the 2007 template, with the S&P potentially falling to about 3,500. Zeberg explains why markets often rally hardest as the economy rolls over, and walks through his business cycle framework: housing leads, jobs follow, and the consumer (“Mrs. Johnson”) decides everything. He argues the bust will be deflationary first. When the Fed steps in, he expects it to create stagflation it can’t fix. He says gold could dip to about $3,000 first before heading to $25,000–$30,000 in the 2030s, and that bond yields have already topped. The next domino he’s watching is private credit, which he calls the “nuclear bomb” that’s far bigger than people think.

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X: https://x.com/HenrikZeberg

Substack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/

Book: https://buy.stripe.com/aFacN62DQdYFbZt9APaR201

TEDx: https://youtu.be/DAmoawIOMbs?si=Infb0cLi8YPxdX4H

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome Henrik Zeberg

1:19 “Now we rally”: why the bottom is in

3:33 AI’s first dominoes and a weakening economy

5:27 The 2007 template

5:57 New bull market or blow-off top?

7:44 Why markets rally when things are bad

10:13 Where the blow-off top began, and S&P 3,500

11:58 His business cycle framework

14:18 Housing leads, jobs follow

16:41 Why printing money can’t stop a recession

18:28 AI, the bubble and the Fourth Turning

25:13 Deflation first, then stagflation

28:15 Gold: why it falls first and $25,000–$30,000 later

32:05 Have bond yields topped?

35:19 Timing the top: January

38:04 What would change his call

39:21 Private credit: the “nuclear bomb”

42:39 Parting advice

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, joins Julia La Roche in studio for the first time in a year with a big shift: after six years of being bearish on bonds, he’s turned neutral and even launched a bond fund. He argues 5% yields are fair value, not a crisis, because we’re now in a world of 3% inflation and 2% growth. He says that world exists by choice: Washington won’t let cheap Chinese goods back in, as shown by the $15,000 Chinese electric car the U.S. has effectively banned, and wage-driven services inflation stays sticky. On the midterms, he says the key question is whether moderate Democrats can outvote the Democratic Socialists. Bianco also explains why Silicon Valley thinks it has too little compute while Wall Street fears it has too much, why he thinks banks are blocking AI agents to protect $120 billion a year in profits, and why AI is a bubble with years left to run. He explains why a divided Fed under Kevin Warsh is a good thing. And his contrarian call: the labor market is fine, because with a shrinking workforce the economy needs only about 30,000 new jobs a year.

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Links:  

BiancoResearch.com  

BiancoAdvisors.com

x.com/biancoresearch

Timestamps

0:00 Preview: a low-risk entry for bonds

0:19 Welcome Jim Bianco

1:02 Why he turned on bonds after six years

3:25 What would make him bullish

4:14 A value call, not a call for lower yields

6:54 How high would yields have to go?

7:23 The biggest risk: inflation

11:42 Why 3% inflation is a choice

12:10 The $15,000 car America won’t let in

14:20 Why services inflation stays sticky

15:16 Get used to 3% inflation

17:57 Midterms: which Democratic Party wins?

21:16 What it means for markets

22:39 Last week’s drawdown: Silicon Valley vs. Wall Street on AI

25:52 Why personal AI agents are game changers

27:37 Why banks are blocking AI agents

29:19 Amazon vs. Perplexity

31:28 Is AI a bubble?

33:46 A genuinely different Fed under Warsh

35:50 Does a divided Fed mean more volatility?

38:35 Contrarian call: the labor market is fine

40:31 Why we only need 30,000 jobs a year

42:33 Wrap-up

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris reacts to the Fed’s 10–2 hold. He compares Kevin Warsh to Paul Volcker, who he says paused his inflation fight before the 1980 election for political reasons, and argues Warsh’s inaction is eroding his credibility. He predicts Democrats will gain 20+ House seats in next week’s midterms, with the Senate a toss-up. He also explains why tech companies will have to fund AI with stock instead of debt, and why he thinks half of planned data centers can’t get built. Whalen calls the NAIC’s retreat on policing private ratings a big win for private credit, warning that annuity and life insurance holders now have “nobody looking out for you.” He points to Baltimore mortgage fraud as an example. Plus: rising government mortgage delinquencies, refinances falling below 20% of volume, his scoop on UWM’s servicing sale, why 3.4% GDP growth is fueled by a $2 trillion deficit, and a viewer question on Flagstar’s preferred stock.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

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Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome to The Wrap

1:18 Warsh and Volcker: playing politics?

3:02 Is Warsh’s credibility eroding?

4:38 Midterm predictions

6:09 Is the bond market tightening for the Fed?

7:35 Why half of planned data centers can’t happen

9:19 Can Warsh break with the Bernanke-Yellen-Powell era?

12:02 What people are missing about Warsh

13:30 Private credit beats the insurance regulators

16:41 What it means for annuity holders

17:32 Baltimore’s mortgage fraud problem

18:37 Are the banks exposed?

19:33 Mortgage pain ahead: delinquencies and Ginnie Mae

22:46 Is there a contrarian case for UWM?

25:54 3.4% GDP and the $2 trillion deficit

27:24 Iran war: how much inflation is transitory?

29:14 Viewer question: Flagstar’s preferred stock

31:03 What to watch after the midterms

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

On Fed Day, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist at QI Research, joins Julia in studio to react to the Fed’s 10–2 vote to hold rates. She calls it a hawkish hold and says the real surprise was Governor Lisa Cook’s dissent alongside Beth Hammack’s, a move she sees as political after renewed attacks from President Trump. Booth calls Kevin Warsh’s press conference “word salad” and says his refusal to call financial conditions tight protects his narrative more than it reflects reality. She warns that hyperscalers are on a debt treadmill they can’t stop, and that more than 100% of GDP growth is now coming from AI. Further tightening, she argues, could slam the economy into a recession rather than ease it into one. She says Warsh is ignoring the inflation breadth measure he told markets to watch at Jackson Hole, along with the underemployed renters missing from jobless claims. The Fed’s biggest blind spot, she says, is the credit market, especially with foreign investors piled into the AI trade.

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Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth  

Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI

Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

Timestamps:

0:00 Preview: “They can’t afford the rent”

0:26 Welcome: Fed Day reaction

0:57 Lisa Cook’s surprise dissent

2:54 Why it was a hawkish hold

3:57 Warsh and financial conditions: “in touch with his narrative”

5:14 An unsatisfying press conference

6:13 Liquidity into year-end and the $100 billion IPO

7:32 The hyperscalers’ debt treadmill

8:25 Could Warsh slam the economy into recession?

8:47 What jobless claims are missing

12:13 Lessons from Halloween 2018 and the Powell pivot

13:10 How fast the rate-cut debate could flip

13:57 Fewer Fed meetings and the risk of an emergency cut

14:39 “Fed Up” again: renters and the underemployed

15:36 Inflation breadth: Warsh’s own yardstick

17:02 More than 100% of GDP growth is AI

18:09 What a blue wave could mean for AI

18:55 What the Fed is underestimating: credit

19:55 Wrap-up

Axel Merk, founder and CIO of Merk Investments, which manages about $2.5 billion, joins Julia ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting. He explains why Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s goal of “removing a dose of accommodation” means a tightening bias without a sledgehammer. He also explains why gold has fallen during the Iran war: markets treat it as a temporary supply shock that pushes real rates higher. And he describes the decoupling he’s watching for that could free gold from the conflict. Merk, who met with Warsh at the Fed in August, says Warsh has been consistent and is trying to pull the Fed back from micromanaging the economy and from heavy forward guidance. He also describes the institutional pushback Warsh faces. He breaks down the four kinds of gold buyers and sees near-zero odds of a hike this week. He warns that the AI debt binge could eventually force lower rates. And he argues that AI’s massive capital needs are leveling the playing field for gold miners, which he calls some of the cheapest assets out there.

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Links:
https://www.merkinvestments.com/
https://x.com/axelmerkTimestamps:

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome Axel Merk
1:05 The big picture: Warsh’s “dose of accommodation”
3:17 Iran, the Israeli election and the midterms
5:27 Why gold fell during the Iran war
7:49 Will gold decouple from Iran?
9:50 The four types of gold buyers
12:18 Who is Kevin Warsh? Meeting him at the Fed
15:16 What Fed independence really means
17:40 Forward guidance: referee, not player
20:24 What it’s like in the room
21:07 Why not just abolish the Fed?
24:18 What markets look like with a narrower Fed
27:34 Blaming the Fed for populism
29:56 Warsh’s cat-herding challenge
31:18 Hike or hold this week?
33:26 Volatility, cash and how to size risk
36:03 Why he’s heavy in gold miners
39:13 Parting thought: invest in your health

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris calls Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac a “pump and dump.” He explains why the GSEs won’t be released during Trump’s term and lays out his own fix: buy back the public common shares and leave the U.S. as the sole shareholder. He breaks down Auction.com data showing foreclosure auctions up 25% from a year ago as COVID-era protections end and housing shifts to a buyer’s market, and he shares his advice for sellers: price to sell. Whalen also covers REIT earnings, United Wholesale Mortgage’s strategy shift and Annaly’s return to book value. He explains why he’s less bullish than his friend Ralph on 10-year Treasuries near 5%, and whether the Fed will hike or hold at next week’s meeting. He says he’s long energy, adding to gold on weakness and cautious on financials as credit problems surface. He closes with the risk he thinks nobody is watching closely enough: an unexpected turn in the Russia-Ukraine war.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

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https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

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Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome to The Wrap

1:04 Bessent, Fannie and Freddie, and the “pump and dump”

3:48 Whalen’s fix: the U.S. as sole shareholder

5:08 Why “privatization” without control is a fraud

7:48 Foreclosure auctions up 25%

09:45 Is there a credit problem in housing?

10:56 Advice for sellers: price to sell

13:08 REIT earnings and UWM’s new strategy

14:19 Annaly back to book value

15:42 The case for 10-year Treasuries

19:14 Why Whalen isn’t as bullish on bonds

20:16 Bonds vs. gold vs. cash

22:06 October FOMC: hike or hold?

23:31 Natural gas down, diesel still high

24:59 Positioning: energy, gold and caution on financials

26:43 How income investing works

28:41 The biggest risk nobody’s talking about

32:00 What to watch next week

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Long-time macro investor Jordi Visser, founder of Visser Labs, makes his in-studio debut with a bold message: the only macro force that matters right now is artificial intelligence. He explains why the economy has become far less rate-sensitive since the iPhone launched in 2007, and why Anthropic and OpenAI’s leap from $30 billion to roughly $170 billion in combined annual recurring revenue marks the start of agentic commerce, with personal AI agents managing more of our lives. He lays out his “bank-pocalypse” thesis, where agents and crypto compress bank valuations by moving money to better yields instantly. He also argues that many veteran macro voices are wrong about AI because they don’t use it. Visser traces his own shift from perma-bear to tech optimist, from closing out his book before Lehman in 2008 to a life-changing trip to Silicon Valley’s Singularity University. He makes the bull case for agentic compute, names hacking and government pushback as the biggest risks, and closes with his most contrarian call: crypto, which he sees as a 100-to-1 long shot that could be the best-performing asset of the next year even if the S&P goes nowhere.

Thank you to our partners

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X: https://x.com/jvisserlabs

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@JordiVisserlabs

Website: https://ai.22vresearch.com/

Substack: substack.com/@visserlabs

Timestamps:
0:00 Preview: the beginning of agentic commerce
0:42 Welcome Jordi Visser
1:15 The only macro that matters: AI
4:14 Why the old playbook broke after 2007
6:44 AI’s iPhone moment: personal agents arrive
10:07 How big is agentic commerce?
10:36 Two economies: AI-native vs. enterprise
12:28 The “bank-pocalypse” thesis
14:01 An agentic run on the banks
17:38 What a personal AI agent does for you
18:56 The generational divide on AI
24:50 2008: closing out before Lehman
26:38 From perma-bear to “no more recessions”
28:26 Silicon Valley and the singularity
31:04 What he tells his kids about AI
32:31 Why Bitcoin is the purest AI trade
35:43 All moats are disappearing
37:37 Why AI is so emotional for people
41:08 Earnings up 30%, jobs at zero
43:08 “AI victim status” and the doom narrative
45:38 Climbing the ladder at Morgan Stanley
48:08 Lifelong learning and longevity
50:00 The bull case: agentic compute
52:30 Is the AI debt a problem?
55:00 The biggest risks: hacking and government pushback
58:44 His contrarian call for next year: crypto
1:02:27 Why the S&P could be flat a year from now
1:03:27 The Peter Lynch lesson and a 100-to-1 long shot

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research and author of Bear in the Bull Ring, says he has never seen so many imbalances in the economy and markets in his 40-year career. He argues we’re in an AI-driven bubble, now in “extra innings.” Ten stocks make up over 40% of market cap while the median stock is down nearly 20%. The Shiller CAPE has topped 40 and the equity risk premium has turned negative. Beneath roughly 2% GDP growth, he sees an economy held up by AI capex, a falling savings rate and stock-market wealth effects, while hiring stalls and real incomes shrink. Rosenberg warns that Kevin Warsh’s Fed risks a policy mistake by hiking into a supply shock with a flat yield curve. He also flags fading fiscal stimulus, midterm gridlock and canceled data center projects as headwinds that put recession odds above 50-50 for 2027. His prescription is to de-risk without going to zero equities: shift toward Treasuries (two-year and 10-year notes), defensive sectors like utilities, healthcare and REITs, gold, and some cash, so you’re one of the “strong hands” when the cycle turns.

Thank you to our partners

Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052

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Links:

Book: https://www.amazon.com/Bear-Bullring-Independent-Thinking-Protects

Website: https://rosenbergresearch.com/

X: https://x.com/EconguyRosie

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro: Protect your capital

0:21 Welcome David Rosenberg

1:36 Most imbalances in 40 years: a narrow market & fragile economy

6:57 What’s propping up the economy: AI spending & the wealth effect

10:23 Market call: CAPE above 40 & a negative equity risk premium

13:46 Why nobody calls it a bubble until it bursts

18:29 Don’t extrapolate: lessons from oil in 2008

23:17 Fed chasing headline inflation & recession odds

26:09 Is Warsh’s Fed dangerous?

31:32 Four supply shocks & where tariff inflation went

36:09 Labor market weaker than perceived

37:51 Will the Fed be forced to cut? The rookie Fed chair pattern

41:49 Greenspan, 1987 & testing a new Fed chair

42:40 Midterms, fiscal gridlock & a growth slowdown

45:47 AI backlash & data center cancellations

50:33 2001 recession, valuations & savings rate risk

53:42 Where to be on the Treasury curve

54:48 Bonds under-owned & boomers’ 55% stock exposure

1:00:56 Recession vs. growth slowdown

1:01:59 AI credit cracks: Oracle & CoreWeave

1:04:29 Gold outlook & why Treasuries

1:09:35 Book: Bear in the Bull Ring & independent thinking

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.