In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris breaks down the week across mortgages, rates, and precious metals. He opens with United Wholesale Mortgage, explaining why he believes Matt Ishbia should resign after the company hedged the balance sheet of an acquisition target it didn't own and never won — a misstep that produced a six hundred million dollar loss and forced a rescue from Oak Tree on onerous terms that leave common shareholders at the back of the line. Chris contrasts that with Rocket's standout quarter and lays out his broader housing view: investment banks hold this market together until the IPO fees are booked, then step back, setting up a potential correction next year and a general decline in home prices of ten to twenty percent by 2028. From there the conversation turns to the return of financial repression — short-end yields pushed down while the long end reacts to deficits and inflation — and why, with debt approaching forty trillion, he considers Fed independence a fiction and the Treasury the dog to the Fed's tail. Chris also unpacks the Bank of Japan's thirty-day repo with the Fed, why it lit a fire under gold and silver, and David Kotok's idea of using euro-denominated US credit default swaps to benchmark gold. He closes on taxing wealth over income, the erosion of fiscal credibility, and his gold book research into thirteen hundred years of Byzantine monetary stability.

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Timestamps:

0:00 — Intro

1:08 — Why Matt Ishbia should resign from UWM

2:30 — The Oak Tree rescue and what it means for shareholders

3:31 — Mortgage earnings: PennyMac, loanDepot, Rocket

4:23 — Is UWM going to be sold?

5:43 — Health of the broader mortgage industry

6:50 — Seven percent rates and where volume is coming from

7:30 — What the Fed does next, and the long end

8:20 — "Misery on the eights" — is the timeline accelerating?

9:20 — Housing correction: 10–20% by 2028

10:40 — The return of financial repression

12:00 — Why the Treasury benefits, and the shift to T-bills

13:06 — "The Treasury is the dog, the Fed is the tail"

13:40 — The dollar, foreign central banks, and gold reserves

14:20 — The Bank of Japan repo transaction explained

15:14 — What Warsh does if the FOMC wants a hike

16:30 — Inflation, diesel exports, and the energy squeeze

17:34 — David Kotok on benchmarking gold with credit default swaps

18:40 — Why fiscal fear flows into gold

19:30 — How far away is a US debt restructuring?

21:04 — Taxing wealth instead of income

22:42 — What cutting the deficit would actually do to rates

25:15 — Back to the BOJ: why it forced gold and silver higher

28:00 — What if Japan doesn't take the bonds back?

28:48 — Foreign central banks are selling Treasuries

29:47 — Does the US care about gold the way the rest of the world does?

32:10 — Bessent and the K-shaped economy

33:12 — Housekeeping: viewer question episode

33:50 — Parting thoughts

Dr. Marc Faber editor and publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, returns to argue that we are witnessing the first phase of the piercing of the greatest global investment mania. He explains why central bank money printing has inflated asset prices far beyond economic reality — enriching asset holders while ordinary people face a cost of living he estimates is rising 7–12% a year, not the official 3–4%. Faber walks through the cracks already visible: collapsing commercial property values, falling home prices, meme stocks and SPACs that never recovered their 2021 peaks, a narrowing market advance, the semiconductor unwind, and the speculative blow-off in Korea. He argues the 10-year Treasury should yield at least 6.5%, that the Fed should have been hiking rather than cutting, and that the US may already be in recession. With interest costs on federal debt above $1 trillion a year, he says more money printing isn't a choice but an inevitability — and warns that bubbles typically end with the revelation of a massive fraud. His advice is blunt: this is not a market for making money, it's a market for losing the least. He makes the case for broad diversification across cash, bonds, precious metals, and real estate, explains why he refuses to own index funds, shares why Thailand is his largest position, and closes on gold, hyperinflation, and why he thinks the price should already be far higher.Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links:The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report: https://www.gloomboomdoom.comTimestamps:00:00 Intro: Marc Faber returns
01:06 The macro picture: money printing and record wealth inequality
03:33 Why capitalism made the world rich, and who got left behind
05:21 The stock market is in the sky, but ordinary life isn't
06:58 First signs the investment mania is being pierced
07:35 Why printed money doesn't lift everything at once
09:55 Commercial and residential property prices roll over
10:45 Meme stocks, SPACs, Mag 7 and the semiconductor unwind
11:30 Korea: the biggest bubble nobody's talking about
12:15 The missing link: a massive fraud is coming
13:48 Nominal vs real: how money printing masks the damage
14:45 Real inflation is 7-12%, not 3-4%
15:49 Where rates should be: 6.5% on the 10-year
16:27 Government debt, $1T interest, and why the deficit can't shrink
17:56 The situation is hopeless
18:39 Where Faber puts his own money
20:20 More money printing is inevitable
21:27 Assessing Kevin Warsh at the Fed
22:33 The Fed should have hiked, and the US is already in recession
23:23 Intervention and the death of free markets
25:52 The contrarian bond call and the case for diversification
28:17 The government has become the mafia
28:42 Why a debt crisis is unavoidable
29:55 Sell early, but where do you hide?
31:34 Thin ice: why ordinary people are forced to speculate
31:59 Affordability at the worst level ever
32:25 The passive investing problem
35:10 Index concentration vs the other 493 stocks
36:13 Lessons from 1987: down 21% in a single day
37:26 One year from now: a lot of people will lose a lot of money
38:35 Hong Kong war stories: the traders who lost everything
40:11 The contrarian buy: Thailand, the failed state
41:30 Food self-sufficiency, safety, and life in Asia
43:56 Where to find his work
45:11 Gold, and why he says it should already be $100,000
46:07 Hyperinflation, Zimbabwe, and central bank role models

Mickey Maini, founder of Solstice Laboratory, makes his debut on The Julia La Roche Show. In this episode, he lays out the thesis behind his new book The Entropy Trap: financial systems, like all systems, require energy to hold their shape, and as complexity rises and trust decays, the energy needed to maintain order climbs until the system transitions into something new. He argues we're between two systems now, sitting in the third of five stages — control — one policy misstep away from fracture. Maini explains why the Fed's real job this decade is defending collateral rather than setting rates, why three stresses (geopolitics, debt, and innovation) are compounding rather than merely adding for the first time in decades, and why the honest tell on AI is the credit market rather than the equity market. Along the way: what central bank gold buying is actually signaling, his scenario range for gold, the US-China choke point war that will determine who writes the next system, and why the trader who made $100 million in 1929 lost it all while the one who ignored prices did fine.

Maini began in investment banking, then scaled an emerging-markets conglomerate from $100 million to over $5 billion as its CEO, then taught at one of Asia's leading public policy schools. Today he runs his family office and Solstice Laboratory (solsticelabs.com) - an independent research lab in Dubai that applies physics to markets and geopolitics, studying the moments when systems stop moving in cycles and change state.

Thank you to our sponsors:

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Links:

The Entropy Trap book: https://www.amazon.com/Entropy-Trap-Physics-Knows-Markets/dp/B0H1ZP7NZX/ref=sr_1_1

Substack: https://solsticelaboratory.substack.com/

Website: https://solsticelabs.com/

Timestamps:

0:00 — Intro and welcome: Mickey Maini, The Entropy Trap
1:58 — Order is rented, and the rent just went up
2:40 — The five stages: print, spend, control, fracture, force
4:24 — 1973 economically, 1938 militarily, 1978 for the Fed
6:24 — What tips us from control into fracture
9:02 — Why every Fed intervention buys less time than the last
13:00 — The Fed's next decade: defending collateral, not setting rates
15:42 — Indonesia 1998, and why the models stopped working
17:10 — Indonesia had surgery. The US took morphine.
20:44 — Three stresses that compound: geopolitics, debt, innovation
25:00 — Gold as money's ground state, and what central banks are signaling
27:10 — The scenarios: $8K–25K, base case $10–15K
30:31 — Livermore, Baruch, Kennedy — who lost it all and who won
34:30 — The tell on AI isn't equity. Watch the Oracle CDS.
36:00 — 75% of US growth is one trade
38:03 — Five to seven years to a new system, the next two the toughest
39:04 — China settles in gold. The US builds stablecoins.
41:35 — Velocity of stress: the master signal, and why it hasn't turned
50:42 — What the dashboard is flashing right now
53:04 — Don't own long bonds. Invest in yourself.

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris joins Julia La Roche to argue that Kevin Warsh has a credibility problem: he's holding rates, avoiding confrontation with a divided board, and saying almost nothing, while the bond market does the tightening for him with the ten-year near 4.7% and mortgages headed toward seven-plus. Whalen's prescription is blunt — take back last year's cuts with two quarter-point hikes, consider a surprise August move, raise margin requirements, and keep shrinking the balance sheet, because Treasury is the dog and the Fed is barely the tail. From there the conversation ranges across a coming diesel and fertilizer shortage nobody in Washington will discuss, gold's role as real money in Asia versus a paper price in the West, and Whalen's own portfolio, from Annaly and Rhythm Capital to Flagstar and roughly a fifth in precious metals. The back half turns spicy with Tom Gober's new guest post on life insurers: private-credit-controlled annuity writers reinsuring liabilities offshore without posting enough assets behind them, hidden by state secrecy laws and rubber-stamped by ratings agencies that were never working for you. Plus PennyMac's bad quarter, George Gleason's construction-lending model at Bank OZK, and mailbag questions on SpaceX and mining stocks.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:    

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

Thomas Gober guest article: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira874

Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:

0:00 — Intro: no, the show isn't being cancelled

1:52 — Warsh's first pressers: three dissenters and a chairman who says nothing

5:42 — How Warsh gets credibility: take back last year's cuts

7:20 — Trump stays quiet on Warsh — plus a coming diesel and fertilizer squeeze

8:46 — Is the economy finally slowing? The fading power of deficits

10:22 — "Treasury is the dog, the Fed is the tail"

11:30 — The case for a surprise August hike and less forward guidance

12:56 — Gold, Keith Weiner, and the permanent backwardation thesis

15:38 — Gold as bank capital: pledging metal as repo collateral

16:37 — Whalen's book: Annaly, Rhythm, miners, energy, Schwab, Flagstar

19:41 — PennyMac's ugly quarter and why it drags the whole mortgage group down

21:23 — Bank OZK vs. the big banks on commercial real estate

23:19 — Tom Gober's guest post: is your life insurer actually solvent?

27:00 — Offshore reinsurance, secrecy states, and why ratings won't save you

29:36 — Mailbag: SpaceX below IPO price — buy more or bail?

31:53 — Mailbag: miners vs. metal, GLD/GDX vs. SLV/SIL

35:13 — What's next: mortgage earnings, the bank 50, and the gold book

Danielle DiMartino Booth breaks down a contentious FOMC meeting where new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held rates steady over three dissents, arguing the "good family fight" reflects a real fault line between district bank presidents and governors rather than idle disagreement. She reads Warsh as deliberately dismantling forward guidance, pushing the Fed to stop acting as the market's referee, and leaning toward a trimmed-mean view of inflation while insisting the 2% target stays non-negotiable. Beneath the policy debate, she sees an economy propped up almost entirely by the top 10% and the AI investment boom, with mounting cracks underneath: widening CCC high-yield spreads, bankruptcies at 15-year highs, record apartment concessions on luxury units, softening wage growth, and falling freight demand across trucking and ocean shipping. Her core worry is that if the top of the K "stutters" — as the AI bubble deflates or the wealth effect fades — the pain trickles down onto an already-struggling bottom half, and she's positioning around gold as credit conditions tighten.

Thank you to our sponsors:

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Links:

Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth

Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI

Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

Timestamps:

00:00 — Intro and welcome

00:35 — Immediate take on the FOMC hold with three dissenters; Warsh's "robust discussion" and four questions

02:42 — Is it a deeper split? Waller standing with Warsh; district bank presidents vs. governors

03:48 — Why strategists are throwing a "hissy fit"; abandoning forward guidance, Fed stepping back as referee

05:01 — The 2% inflation target described as non-negotiable

05:47 — Did it make sense to hold? The five shocks, "team transitory" slip, trimmed-mean inflation

07:13 — Is the door open for a September hike?

08:53 — Kalshi prediction-market odds for September (53% hike / 45% hold)

09:57 — Market reaction; NASDAQ's late-day fall off a cliff

11:52 — Why the FOMC minutes may be the real story

12:20 — Economy assessment via alternative data: waste-management volumes, GDP, Indeed wages

14:38 — How inflation should really be measured; P&G, purchasing power, World Cup hiring

16:09 — Cracks emerging: CCC high-yield spreads, 15-year-high bankruptcies, apartment concessions

18:52 — The K-shaped economy, the wealth effect, and international travel as a bellwether

21:01 — Does she agree with the hold? Her public call for a hike

21:52 — The bond market has done the tightening for the Fed

22:11 — The move in gold vs. Bitcoin, and what it signals about credit

23:07 — More breakage coming in credit; distressed debt exchanges as "polite" Chapter 11

24:29 — What investors are missing: truck stops, ocean freight, inventory restocking, Austria/BMW

29:32 — What she's watching into September; tax refunds, World Cup aftermath, the top of the K

32:25 — Parting thoughts

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris breaks down why the stablecoin boom may be running out of road — giving the Clarity Act less than 50/50 odds and arguing it could strip the yield out of coins, force issuers offshore, and turn the survivors into banks. He makes the case that stablecoins are little more than "prepaid gift cards," lays out why he's bullish on gold and silver as central banks and China chase physical metal, and warns that real inflation — measured by commodity inputs like energy and sulfur (up 150% since the Iran war), not the CPI — is closing in on double digits. Whalen also sees the 10-year Treasury pushing past 5% and mortgages settling into a "higher for longer" 6.5–7%, flags the mortgage sector as the earnings story to watch, takes aim at Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy, points to safer places to find yield, and keeps circling back to one unsettling parallel: today looks a lot like the 1920s, right before the party ended.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:    

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Timestamps:

0:00 – Intro

0:45 – The Clarity Act: will it kill stablecoins?

3:34 – Do stablecoins have any real use case?

5:17 – Why we may need fewer banks — and more insurers

8:22 – Do stablecoins actually create Treasury demand?

10:16 – Chris's next book: gold

12:20 – Gold's pullback and the bull case for silver

16:37 – Goldman's $4,900 target & John Paulson on gold

17:53 – The BLS quietly redefines inflation

19:40 – A 2% target, a 6% deficit, and 5% yields

22:07 – Why mortgage earnings are the story to watch

24:29 – Affordability, home prices & the blue-state squeeze

26:42 – Why it all rhymes with the 1920s

28:44 – Viewer Q&A: the real double-digit inflation

32:12 – MSTR yields, Saylor & where to find safe income

36:28 – Closing thoughts: the mortgage shakeout ahead

Financial commentator Chris Irons, also known as Quoth the Raven on X and author of the popular QTR Fringe Finance substack, returns to the show with a sobering assessment of markets he says are at or above the highest valuations in history — propped up by a passive bid, options-driven flows, and ten mega-cap names carrying everyone's retirement. Irons explains why he's stepped back from active trading permanently, why he believes the SpaceX IPO's $2 trillion ask may have marked a top in AI euphoria, and why Kevin Warsh's inflation-fighting promises will crumble the moment equities fall 10-20%. He shares where he's finding opportunity — including his early psychedelics call that's crushed the market this year, emerging markets, and beaten-down gold miners — and warns that the most underappreciated risks lie in stablecoins, crypto leverage, private credit, and regional banks. His bottom line: a sharp deleveraging is coming, the Fed will fold at the first sign of discomfort, and gold could hit $7,500 or higher after the next round of money printing.

This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:

X: https://x.com/QTRResearch

Substack: Viewers/listeners of The Julia La Roche Show get 80% off an annual subscription of QTR's Fringe Finance https://quoththeraven.substack.com/subscribe?coupon=7c8478df&utm_content=207295644

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction and welcome back

00:57 Big picture: Fed stuck between a rock and a hard place

03:18 Out-of-control fiscal policy and the "sovereign Ponzi scheme"

05:41 Private equity repackaged in insurance wrappers (2008 echoes)

06:30 SpaceX IPO as a possible top signal for the AI bubble

07:38 Why Chris stepped back from active trading permanently

12:01 "Being right vs. making money"

13:15 Life after trading: clarity, priorities, and more content

14:45 Diagnosing the market: passive bid, gamma squeezes, and index distortion

16:35 The case for equal-weight (RSP) over cap-weighted S&P

18:30 Michael Burry's AI build-out vs. dot-com comparison

21:10 Opportunities: the psychedelics thesis and how it played out

27:00 Gold and miners: buying the pullback, $7,500 gold scenario

30:45 What to expect from a Kevin Warsh-led Fed

34:36 Should inflation even be the Fed's mandate?

36:04 Arbitrary prices and permanently distorted markets

37:45 The vocal track analogy: too many plugins on the economy

40:10 Why active trading is impossible in a headline-driven market

41:27 Most underappreciated risks: stablecoins, Tether, and crypto contagion

43:30 Corporate fraud, private credit, regional banks, and subprime auto

46:01 Closing thoughts and subscriber discount

George Noble, CIO of Noble Capital Advisors and former Fidelity fund manager under Peter Lynch, returns with a stark warning: the global liquidity cycle has turned. Citing "liquidity king" Michael Howell, Noble argues that surging deficits, sticky inflation, and a worldwide capex boom have stripped away the policy safety net markets have relied on since 2009 — setting up a potential "Wile E. Coyote moment" where stocks take a dirt nap and the Fed can't respond. He says the Fed isn't in control, Mr. Market is, and bond yields at 4.5% are "much too low" — fair value may be closer to 5.5-6%. Noble calls the AI trade "far worse than dot-com," with malinvestment 17 times larger, hyperscalers destroying free cash flow, and semis a "huge short." His playbook: ditch the 60/40 portfolio, own the reflation trade — gold, silver, energy, copper, uranium — and he names specific stocks including SSRM, Coeur, Valaris, and CRGY. Plus: why the yen carry trade could break, the TLT-in-Turkish-lira lesson on real money, and his most emphatic call of all — "run, don't walk" from SpaceX before the float unlock. And details on his Best Stock Ideas Summit, July 22nd.

Thank you to our sponsors:

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Links:

George Noble's Best Stock Ideas Online Summit: https://noble-capevents.com/

X: https://x.com/gnoble79

Substack: https://substack.com/@georgenoble

Timestamps:

0:00 — Intro; George's Best Stock Ideas Summit July 22nd

1:10 — The global liquidity cycle has turned: Michael Howell's warning

4:31 — "Risk assets are extremely challenged" — rotation and dispersion is the real story

5:30 — Energy vs. Mag 7: free cash flow tells the story

7:03 — Tech is really 50% of the market — why the indices will struggle

8:20 — "Warsh is not in control, Mr. Market is"

10:04 — Why Warsh will blink: the market will force the Fed's hand

10:28 — America's Liz Truss moment? Lending to "the Bank of Julia" at 4.5%

13:34 — Policy options are gone: why this time the Fed can't rescue markets

14:55 — The "Wile E. Coyote moment" ahead for markets

16:17 — Japan: 30-year high JGB yields, the yen, and the carry trade risk

19:01 — Path vs. prediction: why bond yields are "much too low" — 5.5-6% fair value

23:27 — Why the economy shrugs off higher rates (and why that's bearish)

25:17 — All fiat is devaluing against real assets: the dollar fell 60% against gold

27:17 — Buying the gold correction; why miners could double or triple

28:05 — The TLT in Turkish lira: a lesson in your unit of account

30:10 — Why 60/40 is the worst allocation right now — "certificates of confiscation"

34:07 — "Far worse than dot-com": the margin bubble and 17x the malinvestment

36:29 — The internet grew 25 million percent — and the stocks still crashed 90%

39:21 — George names names: SSRM, Coeur, Valaris, CRGY, uranium, junior copper

40:42 — Parting thoughts: the golden age of stock picking

41:45 — SpaceX: "run, don't walk" — why the float unlock means a crash is coming

43:00 — The Best Stock Ideas Summit: 15 investors, one pick each, July 22nd

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris breaks down a blockbuster week of bank earnings — and why the record numbers mask a growing problem. Wall Street trading and investment banking revenues are exploding, but banks aren't making money on money, as asset yields fall for a sixth straight quarter and private credit giants like Apollo poach deals. Whalen flags roughly $4 trillion in bank exposure to non-depository financial institutions, warns "there are no regulators in Washington" watching the risks, and says the housing market's business-purpose loan boom "feels like 2005." He sticks with his double-digit inflation call, arguing diesel — not oil — is the real story, and predicts fuel shortages, maybe even rationing, before the midterm elections. Plus: Kevin Warsh's Greenspan-style Fed debut, gold's selloff as a buying opportunity, viewer questions on Annaly, and a World Cup prediction.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:    

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 

The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira869

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:

0:00 — Intro and welcome

00:55 Bank earnings and oil prices soar as Middle East war reignites

2:36 — Bank earnings disconnect: Wall Street booms, lending shrinks

3:55 — Why big deals keep going to private credit (Apollo, Blackstone)

5:59 — The hidden risk: banks lending directly to private credit funds

9:06 — The $4 trillion exposure — "no regulators watching the hen house"

10:07 — The "Everything Bubble": rising rates, falling yields, record home prices

12:06 — Kevin Warsh's Greenspan-style Fed: "inflation is a choice"

14:40 — Rate hike odds cool — will the Fed wait until after midterms?

15:42 — Energy shortages building: why the Trump administration stays quiet

16:45 — Double-digit inflation call stands; possible rationing by Election Day

17:53 — Iran destroyed Gulf refining capacity — years to rebuild

21:52 — Housing: sales fall 2.4%, median price hits record high

23:14 — "It feels like 2005" — DSCR and non-QM loans flash warning signs

27:19 — Gold selloff: why Chris is buying more (especially silver)

29:37 — Viewer Q: How rates affect Annaly (NLY) — it's all about the spread

31:03 — Viewer Q: Warsh's 2% target vs. $80 oil — a double whammy?

32:27 — Chris's World Cup prediction: Argentina

In this episode, Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors with 49 years in the business, returns to discuss his latest letter, "Stick to Your Principles," and why he believes today's market is anything but normal. He warns that 10-12 companies now make up half the S&P 500, speculation via leveraged ETFs is in the billions, and stocks are roughly three standard deviations above the norm — a setup he says could eventually correct 40% or more in a generational bear market. Oakley explains why investor complacency is the biggest mistake he sees, with three-quarters of all financial assets in stocks and Americans over 70 owning a third of the market. He shares where he's finding value now — energy names like Northern Oil & Gas, Kimbell Royalty, and Antero, plus beaten-down gold miners like Agnico Eagle — and recounts the hard lesson he learned chasing hot oil stocks in the late 1970s. His biggest worry: unsustainable government debt. His surprising source of optimism: a severe downturn, which he views as the buying opportunity of a generation.

Thank you to our sponsor Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:

Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisors

X: https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors

Book: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168

Timestamps:

0:00 – Introduction: Ted Oakley of Oxbow Advisors returns

0:53 – Semiconductors dominating the market; 10-12 companies are half the S&P

2:10 – "The Gambler": leveraged ETFs and speculation in the billions

3:16 – How leveraged ETFs amplify volatility

4:25 – A market high that "sticks for a while" coming in the next 6-12 months

5:41 – Risk/reward has flipped: 6-8% upside vs. 25% downside

6:38 – A generational bear market could mean a 40-45% correction

8:04 – Investor complacency: 75% of financial assets in stocks, an all-time high

9:26 – Oxbow's positioning: ~60/40 stocks and short-term treasuries

11:04 – The bond market: a possible trade in long-dated treasuries, but not worth the risk

12:19 – Cooler CPI and why inflation could fall further on oil prices

13:36 – What oil industry insiders are saying about drilling and cash flows

14:54 – Everyone's bearish on oil — Ted sees $100+ within 18 months

16:26 – What Ted's buying: Northern Oil & Gas, Kimbell Royalty, Antero, NESR

19:22 – Gold miners cheap after 35-40% correction; Agnico Eagle is Oxbow's top holding

21:09 – Momentum players washing out of gold sets up the next move

22:45 – "Stick to Your Principles": valuation discipline and why pros abandon it

24:16 – Ted's own lesson: getting burned in the late-'70s oil boom

26:00 – The Intel example: sold in '99, took 26 years to hit a new high

27:50 – Why hot IPOs disappoint (SpaceX down 30% from IPO)

29:27 – The boomer risk: over-70s own a third of all stocks

32:04 – Biggest risk: unsustainable government debt and interest costs

33:33 – Why Ted is optimistic about a downturn: liquidity to buy the sale