Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo @DavidWooUnbound, CEO of David Woo Unbound, a global forum devoted to the promotion of fact-based debates about markets, politics, and economics, joins Julia La Roche on episode 296 to discuss the trade war, AI, and markets.

Sponsors:

Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

In this episode, Woo warns that the US economy is heading toward stagflation as tariff impacts finally materialize, with holiday shopping expected to be weak due to consumers having front-loaded purchases in anticipation of price increases. He argues the US is now in a weaker position versus China in the tech war, as China has survived Trump's tariffs through factory automation and AI integration while US manufacturing continues shedding jobs even in protected sectors. Woo is short NASDAQ heading into November 1st, when China's rare earth export restrictions take effect, believing the market has mispriced both the AI bubble (with companies like OpenAI spending unsustainably while hitting technology plateaus) and the intensifying US-China showdown over AI supremacy—calling this "the macro trade of our generation."

Woo, the former head of Global Interest Rates, Foreign Exchange, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research at Bank of America, is known for some of his bold and contrarian calls, including Trump winning the presidential race in 2016 (https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/08/bofaml-analyst-got-ovation-from-co-workers-the-morning-after-election.html), and that the 2020 US presidential election would be much closer than expected and the results contested (https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-dangerous-groupthink-stalking-wall-street-20210909-p58q48).

Links:  

Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound

Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome David Woo back to the show

0:54 Big picture macro view and difficult 2025

3:08 Why tariffs haven't impacted economy yet

6:09 Consumer spending as preemptive buying

9:16 Holiday shopping weakness ahead

10:05 Gen Z consumer struggles

12:05 Stagflation thesis explained

14:28 Manufacturing job losses in protected sectors

16:43 Who's benefiting from tariffs?

18:05 US-China trade war positioning

21:52 China's factory automation advantage

23:54 US vs China AI strategies

26:44 The race for AI dominance

29:31 The macro trade of our generation

32:01 Jensen Huang: China "nanosecond behind"

34:22 September 29th export sanctions expansion

35:51 November 1st deadline explained

36:27 What would you tell Trump administration?

38:37 Shorting NASDAQ and AI bubble thesis

40:01 OpenAI's revenue vs spending problem

43:44 Technology plateau concerns

46:09 AI bubble meets US-China tensions

47:06 Risk management for short positions

49:15 Key catalysts: November 1st & earnings guidance

52:31 What keeps David up at night

53:13 Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine concern

55:03 Final thoughts and where to find David

Lawrence Lepard explains how the "monetary debasement trade" has gone mainstream as gold hit $4,200 and silver broke to $52. He presents a chart showing Bitcoin lags gold by months before moving harder, predicting Bitcoin will hit $250K as signs point to the "imminent big print" with Powell's May 2026 term ending.

Sponsor: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

X: https://x.com/LawrenceLepard

Website: https://ema2.com/

The Big Print book: https://www.amazon.com/Big-Print-Happened-America-Sound/dp/B0DVTCWYNN

0:00 Welcome back Lawrence Lepard

1:09 Monetary debasement trade going mainstream

2:07 Gold broke from $3,400 to $4,200, silver new all-time high at $52

3:58 Fed

5:08 Fed balance sheet signs pointing to imminent big print

7:38 Bitcoin has lag to gold - gold smells it first, Bitcoin moves harder

9:38 US stock market $66T vs gold/silver miners $800B market cap

11:04 Silver move signals real bull market - heading to $60-$100

13:22 Big beautiful bill spending away tariff and DOGE savings

15:14 Chart: Bitcoin lags gold but moves harder when it catches up

18:09 Gold/Bitcoin both sound money - shouldn't fight each other

20:16 Everything bubble - been dead wrong shorting stocks

22:38 This decade like 1970s on steroids with stagflation

24:51 Possible currency reset or hyperinflation tail case

27:03 Base case: stagflationary 1970s on steroids

28:42 12 Fed members set price of money for 330 million Americans

31:13 Real Housewives of Wall Street - wife borrowed $200M non-recourse

34:17 HBS confronting Geithner - victory lap for corrupt 2008 bailouts

36:07 Changed shorting rules during crisis - got wiped out

41:22 Daniel Webster: inflation fertilizes rich man's field with poor man's sweat

42:50 WWI Liberty bonds first modern big print doubled prices

46:01 Next 10 years vision: Blue team 2028, hyperinflation by 2032

47:54 Michael Saylor for president 2032 - modern Thomas Jefferson

48:28 Why Bitcoin not gold? Better, digital age, hard to move gold

50:37 Bitcoin inequality concern - rich will spend it, plumbers get paid in it

52:59 Sound money means no more wars - governments can't afford them

54:12 Fix debt? It's in worthless dollars - we're out of debt

56:52 Decentralization saving us now

Thomas Thornton, founder and president of Hedge Fund Telemetry, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss extreme market conditions with investors "all in, levered, and complacent." He argues we're at a blow-off top characterized by record call buying, leverage through ETFs, and a gambling mentality fueled by 0DTE options and sports betting culture.

Thornton highlights dangerous market mechanics: the Goldman Sachs most shorted basket is up 38% year-to-date, meaning short sellers have been squeezed out and won't provide natural buying support during corrections. He notes extreme concentration risk with 10 stocks comprising 40% of the S&P 500, and Nvidia alone responsible for 18% of market gains. Technical indicators show exhaustion signals while the market continues higher on narrowing breadth. Thornton identifies AI trade risks including slowing CapEx growth, insufficient power infrastructure, and water constraints for data centers. He rebuts bull arguments by comparing current conditions unfavorably to 2000, noting $38 trillion in debt versus $4 trillion then. He explains why the Fed can't save markets this time due to Treasury market dysfunction. Currently positioned net short with disciplined risk management, Thornton predicts people will look back on 2025 and say "the signs were so obvious." He advises investors to lower exposures and leverage, warning that opportunities will come when his indicators reach oversold levels and nobody wants to buy.

This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

https://www.hedgefundtelemetry.com/

https://www.x.com/tommythornton

Timestamps:

0:00 - Introduction and welcome

1:02 - "People are all in, levered, and complacent" - Market positioning

3:43 - Gambling mentality and comparison to past market cycles

5:20 - How leverage and zero DTE options change market dynamics

7:39 - "Market correction or something worse" - What's ahead

7:52 - "I definitely think we're at a blow off top"

9:20 - Goldman Sachs most shorted basket and dangerous market mechanics

11:51 - Passive ETFs and leverage risk

12:46 - Market sentiment analysis with charts

14:13 - CNN Fear & Greed Index critique

15:30 - DeMark indicators flashing exhaustion signals

18:22 - Goldman Sachs most shorted basket technical breakdown

19:01 - Concentration risk: 10 stocks = 40% of S&P 500

21:28 - Call buying extremes and put/call ratios

23:23 - AI trade risks and CapEx spending concerns

25:42 - Energy and water constraints for AI data centers

30:28 - Market narrowing despite new highs

32:40 - Bull case rebuttal: Why this is different from 2000

34:48 - Why the Fed can't save the market this time

36:22 - Net short positioning and risk management strategy

39:44 - "The signs were so obvious" - How we'll remember 2025

41:35 - Long idea: Golar natural gas infrastructure play

44:28 - Hedge Fund Telemetry overview and parting advice

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Julia La Roche in-studio following the Fed minutes. In this episode, DiMartino Booth highlights how the Fed quietly reclassified nearly $300 billion in loans on a Friday afternoon with no comment, shifting them from stodgy commercial categories into the "black box" of non-depository financial institution (NDFI) lending now totaling $1.7 trillion. She draws parallels to Enron as First Brands bankruptcy exposes what appeared to be an auto supplier was actually a financial using off-balance sheet vehicles, with subprime delinquency rates likely double reported figures. Elsewhere, Booth warns youth unemployment hit 1988 levels but from lack of demand not supply as companies blindly adopt AI without hiring, leaving the Class of 2025 worse off than 2024. She argues gold has become a "meme stock" with Wall Street firms' price targets signaling contrarian risk, while the government shutdown leaves the Fed "flying blind" without official data for their October 29th meeting.

Sponsors: Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia⁠ Links: Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

0:00 Hawkish Fed minutes - knife in Miran's back
1:44 Fed insider on Miran controversy
2:48 Did Fed want September cut?
5:08 Shutdown means Fed flying blind October
6:04 Gold and NASDAQ flying - unusual
7:03 Gold as meme stock - contrarian warning
9:50 NDFI loans - $1.7 trillion black box
12:21 $250B loan reclassification bombshell
13:14 Fed reclassified quietly on Friday
14:17 First brands like Enron revelation
16:21 Off balance sheet financing returns
18:25 Subprime delinquencies likely double
20:15 Is this systemic? Fed doesn't know
21:28 Fed won't move without official data
22:22 Challenger data horror at Fed
24:52 Charts need gray recession bars
25:12 Fed put born October 1987
27:32 Youth unemployment demand crisis
30:02 AI adoption without hiring
32:24 Parents worry kids made redundant
33:20 First five years determine career
35:48 Not sending kids to college
37:11 Put faces on repo statistics
38:47 Markets masking K economy
39:01 Lowercase i economy concept

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, explains why Americans remain uncomfortable with gold despite it hitting new highs - it implies dollar weakness after 150 years of reserve currency dominance. He reveals FDR seized the Federal Reserve's gold in 1933 with little compensation, while today US gold allocation sits under 1% of portfolios versus growing central bank accumulation. Whalen defends his call for earlier Fed cuts. He sees gold reaching $5,000+ by end of 2026 as US allocations shift from under 1% toward 2%, while warning the average person without assets continues getting screwed as the Fed will eventually monetize Treasury issuance through financial repression.

Sponsor:

Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:    

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/   

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome and introduction - Chris Whalen's first in-studio appearance

0:24 Julia's introduction highlighting Chris's credentials and analysis

1:16 Fed takeaway - Steve Miran only governor wanting 50bp cut

2:19 Housing emergency coming - Fed drove prices up, Trump faces constraint

2:31 Housing scenarios - mortgage rates retreating after quarter point

4:17 Monetary Metals ad read

5:34 Housing psychology - homeowners trying to sell at the top

6:53 Office space comparison - no longer premium asset class

7:38 Fed rate cut outlook - may not see more cuts for months

9:58 Bank balance sheet problems - mortgage securities underwater

10:54 Politics of inflation - housing affordability crisis

13:10 Viewer housing question response - Florida 1924 parallels

15:32 DC trip on GSEs - still no roadmap from Treasury

18:43 Fannie/Freddie trade - made 30% then got out

19:54 Taking profits

22:36 Watching the herd mentality

25:20 Dollar/deficit thesis - weaker dollar, Treasury pressure ahead

27:47 Fed restructuring vision - eliminate Board of Governors

31:09 Housing emergency declaration - resuming MBS purchases discussion

33:51 Mixed economy - wealthy vs bottom quartile struggling

34:34 Debt myths - Americans love inflation, debt is currency

36:18 Highest conviction trade - gold and strategic silver

Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock and author of The Monetary House of Cards, presents his business cycle framework showing leading indicators crossed in November 2024 (Titanic hit iceberg), but imminent recession indicators haven't triggered yet (ship not sinking). He sees a final blow-off top with S&P potentially hitting 7,500 and NASDAQ 28,000 before a potential 50% crash that would still leave valuations at third-highest ever with market cap to GDP at unprecedented 220%. Zeberg warns gold is in a "mini bubble" front-running deflationary collapse and will decline when dollar bottoms, despite $35,000 long-term target. His most provocative thesis: after deflationary bust, Fed money printing will cause stagflation because "Mrs. Johnson" will hoard rate cut savings rather than spend, while Fed remains "way too late" using lagging indicators like "driving by looking in rear window."

Sponsors:

Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

X: https://x.com/HenrikZeberg

Substack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/

Book: https://buy.stripe.com/aFacN62DQdYFbZt9APaR201

0:00 Welcome and introduction - Henrik Zeberg

1:13 Zeberg Business Cycle framework - four phases explained

3:28 Leading indicators crossed November 2024 - Titanic hit iceberg

5:43 Imminent recession indicators - credit spreads, yield spreads, initial claims

8:39 Markets don't lead - unemployment bottoms before stock market tops

13:52 Market cap to GDP at 220% - unprecedented bubble territory

16:08 Elliott Wave targets - S&P 7,500, NASDAQ 28,000 possible

18:40 Singapore index - canary in coal mine for global economy

19:17 Everything bubble explained - rate suppression distorted all valuations

22:44 Most dangerous when people don't recognize bubble

24:37 Fed micromanaging creates inefficient capital allocation

27:05 S&P could fall 50% to 3,350 and still be third highest valuation ever

29:59 Gold mini bubble - front-running deflationary collapse

32:54 Dollar bottom coming - gold decline ahead despite long-term bullishness

34:03 Own physical gold but don't buy more right now

37:05 Stagflation thesis - deflationary bust then high inflation

42:49 Mrs. Johnson won't spend rate cut savings - she'll hoard it

44:57 Fed way too late - rearranging deck chairs on Titanic

48:43 Housing affordability

51:01 Central bank hubris

53:55 Fed using lagging indicators - driving by looking in rear window

57:42 Peak euphoria warning - when it feels best, be most careful

Axel Merk, CIO and founder of Merk Investments with nearly $3 billion in AUM, shares his perspective on the current macro landscape and gold's surge to record highs. In this episode, Merk explains how "fringe" fiscal sustainability concerns have moved mainstream, driving gold to new highs above $3,700. He provides a gold mining primer, distinguishing between speculative junior miners and established producers, while focusing on developers with proven management teams as the "scarcest resource." Merk criticizes the Fed's evolution into micromanaging the economy through its "toolkit," arguing this creates inefficient capital allocation and enables political irresponsibility. He notes gold's correlation breakdown due to dollar weaponization and sees continued upside potential, though warns against overexposure, emphasizing that the best investment advice is to "invest in yourself" and control spending.

This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

https://www.merkinvestments.com/

https://x.com/axelmerk

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome and introduction - Axel Merk returns after 6 months

0:38 AUM growth from $2B to $3B reflects gold space interest

1:29 Liberation Day framework - tariffs impact financial flows

3:04 Fringe views moving mainstream amid elevated valuations

3:49 Long-term fiscal sustainability concerns driving gold investment

6:08 Fed micromanaging economy enables political irresponsibility

7:47 Gold's parabolic rise - perception vs reality of "barbarous relic"

10:23 Gold mining dynamics - junior miners haven't had explosive rally yet

13:10 Gold Mining 101 - conservative vs speculative investor profiles

15:23 Big miners' over/under-investment cycle post-financial crisis

17:19 Developer focus - scarcest resource is good management

18:31 Junior vs major miners - venture capitalists with hard hats

21:14 Gold correlation breakdown - weaponization changed dynamics

24:37 Fed micromanagement critique - toolkit means intervention

26:48 Inefficient capital allocation favors big companies

27:58 Preventing recessions vs natural business cycles

31:58 Gold as 20-year hedge - glad you had it in hindsight

32:32 Silver complexity - industrial use creates volatility

36:02 Investment advice - invest in yourself first, control spending

Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of Capital Wars, returns to The Julia La Roche Show, where he analyzes global liquidity trends and warns of market risks ahead.

Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

In this episode, Howell presents his global liquidity cycle framework showing markets are late in a 35-month bull run that began in late 2022, with early warning signs emerging in repo markets as SOFR spreads spike. He warns of a massive debt refinancing wall hitting 2026-2029 from COVID-era borrowing, while the Fed transitions from QE to "Treasury QE" under Bessent's direction to fund real economy priorities. Howell's most striking thesis involves gold price targets of $10,000 by the late 2030s and $25,000 by 2052 based on structural deficit math, driven by both US monetary inflation and China's liquidity expansion to escape its debt crisis. He advocates for monetary inflation hedges like gold and Bitcoin as central banks deliberately weaken currencies in a "Make America Great" strategy against China.

Links: 

Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/

Twitter/X https://x.com/crossbordercap

Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/

Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392902

0:00 Welcome and introduction - Michael Howell returns to discuss markets

1:14 Global liquidity cycle framework - 5-6 year cycle approaching top

3:41 Late cycle positioning - thinking end game vs beginning

6:06 Debt-liquidity integration - 80% of lending now collateral-backed

8:46 Early warning signs - SOFR spreads and repo market tensions

11:49 Debt-liquidity ratio analysis - refinancing crisis ahead

14:15 COVID debt echo effect - massive refinancing wall 2026-2029

17:04 Fed balance sheet slowdown - similar to early 2022 conditions

18:51 Treasury QE emergence - Bessent directing liquidity to real economy

20:20 Stablecoin monetization - credit providers buying government debt

22:36 Plain vanilla cycle - everything following normal script

25:00 Asset allocation phases - rebound, calm, speculation, turbulence

29:20 Gold breakout analysis - disconnect from real rates since 2022

31:45 Structural deficit math - mandatory spending blowout ahead

33:42 Gold price targets - $10,000 by late 2030s, $25,000 by 2052

35:56 Monetary vs high street inflation - currency devaluation vs CPI

39:44 Fed independence questioned - Treasury QE running the show

41:51 Make America Great currency war - deliberate dollar weakening

44:08 China's gold strategy - escaping debt crisis through monetization

46:33 Chinese liquidity expansion - driving global commodity reflation

50:05 Final thoughts - late cycle caution, gold as monetary hedge

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to the show for an in-person episode to recap the FOMC, discuss the state of the economy, housing, and his highest conviction ideas.

Sponsor:

Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:    

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/   

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome and introduction - Chris Whalen's first in-studio appearance

0:24 Julia's introduction highlighting Chris's credentials and analysis

1:16 Fed takeaway - Steve Miran only governor wanting 50bp cut

2:19 Housing emergency coming - Fed drove prices up, Trump faces constraint

2:31 Housing scenarios - mortgage rates retreating after quarter point

4:17 Monetary Metals ad read

5:34 Housing psychology - homeowners trying to sell at the top

6:53 Office space comparison - no longer premium asset class

7:38 Fed rate cut outlook - may not see more cuts for months

9:58 Bank balance sheet problems - mortgage securities underwater

10:54 Politics of inflation - housing affordability crisis

13:10 Viewer housing question response - Florida 1924 parallels

15:32 DC trip on GSEs - still no roadmap from Treasury

18:43 Fannie/Freddie trade - made 30% then got out

19:54 Taking profits

22:36 Watching the herd mentality

25:20 Dollar/deficit thesis - weaker dollar, Treasury pressure ahead

27:47 Fed restructuring vision - eliminate Board of Governors

31:09 Housing emergency declaration - resuming MBS purchases discussion

33:51 Mixed economy - wealthy vs bottom quartile struggling

34:34 Debt myths - Americans love inflation, debt is currency

36:18 Highest conviction trade - gold and strategic silver

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Julia La Roche in-studio following the September FOMC. DiMartino Booth argues the Fed "chose independence over economy" with its 25bp cut, as Waller and Bowman sacrificed potential Fed chair positions by not dissenting for larger cuts. She presents compelling evidence the US has created zero jobs since April in the core private sector and calls a double-dip recession starting Q2 2024. DiMartino Booth's thesis is that "the Fed put is dead" - if the Fed goes to zero bound again, the 40% of stocks owned by 70+ year-olds will be forced to sell, stress-testing passive flows for the first time in history. She advocates reforming the Fed's structure, eliminating the conflicting dual mandate, and warns that unknown leverage in private markets represents the new systemic fault line.

Sponsors:

Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia⁠

Links:

Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth

Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI

Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

0:00 Welcome and introduction - Danielle in studio post-FOMC

0:36 Fed chose independence over economy - 25bp cut reaction

2:32 Waller's non-dissent - sacrificing Fed chair shot for integrity

3:46 US created zero jobs since April in core private sector

5:43 Monetary Metals ad read

6:43 Double dip recession call - started Q2 2024

8:53 Jobs typo in North Carolina data - continuing claims actually rose

11:14 Top 10% now account for 49% of consumption

12:21 Double dip recession explained - historical 1980-81 parallel

14:31 1.4 million full-time jobs lost since January

16:08 CEOs investing in AI to cut workers, not add jobs

17:20 Fed's dual mandate doesn't make sense - inherently conflicting

20:16 The Fed put is dead - new book thesis

23:02 Zero bound means boomers sell stocks - passive never stress tested

27:24 Fed structure needs reform - too many PhDs, need practitioners

29:01 Lehman anniversary - Fed violated law with MBS purchases

31:42 Private markets are new fault line - leverage unknown

32:32 Final thoughts - give peace a chance, listen to each other