Darius Dale, founder & CEO of 42 Macro, an investment research firm that aims to disrupt the financial services industry by democratizing institutional-grade macro risk management frameworks and processes, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 251 to discuss Trump, tariffs, and the risks facing the markets and the economy.

Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals.

https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

42 Macro https://42macro.com/

Darius on X/Twitter: https://x.com/dariusdale42

42 Macro on X/Twitter: https://x.com/42macro

42 Macro on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@42Macro

0:00 Intro and welcome Darius Dale

0:30 Quick update on Wednesday morning with Darius onTrump's Wall Street pivot

11:29 Original interview begins:

12:43 Core research themes: Sticky inflation and resilient economy

18:09 Treasury market dynamics and foreign ownership concerns

21:24 American exceptionalism and international investment imbalances

27:58 Discussion of technical recession outlook

31:24 Detailed recession forecast and Fed response predictions

33:38 Labor vs capital distribution shifts over generations

37:52 Balance of payments crisis risks and twin deficit implications

43:03 KISS systematic investment strategy explained

50:57 Gold outlook and bond market analysis

54:37 Closing thoughts

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, a research and analytics firm, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 250 where she reiterates her view that the US is already in recession, explains the "collapse in confidence" spreading through markets, and evaluates the growing tension between President Trump and Fed Chair Powell. Booth reveals concerning trends in consumer credit, employment data, and housing that mainstream statistics aren't capturing.

Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals.

https://monetary-metals.com/julia

A global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets. Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy. DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.

Links:

QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth

Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/

Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

Timestamps:

00:00 - Introduction

03:31 - Discussion on US exceptionalism and capital migration out of US dollar assets

06:50 - Exploring the implications of collapsing confidence

08:35 - Trump's Truth Social post about Powell and interest rates

11:59 - Federal Reserve's independence and potential rate cut decisions

15:20 - Discussion on whether rate cuts are necessary and timing

16:02 - Explanation of Fed blackout period and limitations on communication

17:59 - Analysis of Trump's strategy regarding Fed commentary

19:17 - Consumer

22:20 - CEO confidence decline, reduced capital expenditures, and potential layoffs

23:47 - Discussion on high unemployment claim rejection rates (44%)

25:19 - Effects on gig economy and discretionary spending like rideshare services

27:03 - Confirmation that we are in a recession

31:34 - Housing market assessment and discussion of market conditions

34:05 - Housing price outlook and structural issues

36:00 - Closing thoughts

Legendary economist Dr. A. Gary Shilling, President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic consulting firm and a registered investment advisor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 249 to discuss the state of the economy.

Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

In this episode, Dr. Shilling explains why he believes we are headed for a recession, if not already in one. He analyzes how Trump's tariff policies are disrupting global trade relationships and creating economic uncertainty while simultaneously forcing countries like China to the negotiating table. Despite these headwinds, Dr. Shilling reveals why he remains bullish on US Treasuries and the dollar as safe havens, shares his optimistic outlook on Indian stocks over Chinese investments, and advises listeners to build "fortress-like balance sheets" to weather the coming economic storm.

Timestamps:

00:00 - Introduction and welcome back Dr. Shilling

01:50 - Historical context: US economic role since World War II

03:34 - Impact of globalization on US manufacturing

04:14 - Trump's changing approach to international trade

06:37 - China's position and recent willingness to negotiate

09:03 - Signs of recession and economic vulnerabilities

12:33 - Bond market volatility and US Treasury outlook

17:18 - Perspective on gold reaching record highs

19:11 - Current investment allocations and strategies

20:21 - Why India may surpass China in global leadership

24:19 - Media coverage of market fluctuations vs long-term outlook

26:47 - Dr. Shilling's history of contrarian economic predictions

29:56 - Assessment of current economic vulnerabilities

32:04 - Consumer debt and "buy now, pay later" trends

33:27 - The US debt bomb and dollar's reserve currency status

36:52 - Potential outcomes of tariff policies

39:43 - Contact information and subscription details

40:42 - Closing advice: maintaining a "fortress-like balance sheet"

Access Dr. Shilling's monthly newsletter INSIGHT by calling this toll free number (1-888-346-7444) or visiting his website (https://www.agaryshilling.com/).

New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for an in-person episode to discuss the markets and the economy.

Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

In this episode, McDonald discusses capital flows moving away from US markets. McDonald explains how European investors are pulling back following tariff policies and growing deficits. He discusses why copper, uranium, and oil services present value opportunities while predicting the possibility of "4000 gold and 4000 S&P." McDonald warns that America faces conditions with weakness in stocks, bonds, and currency simultaneously, creating what he calls a potential "Lehman moment" of uncertainty.

Links:

How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR

Twitter/X: https://x.com/convertbond

Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/

00:00 - Introduction and welcome Larry 02:26 - Institutional investor conversations and European capital flows05:00 - American exceptionalism and crowded US investments08:24 - Understanding Wall Street research and consensus thinking10:27 - The new investing era: Niall Ferguson's insights on multi-polar world11:55 - The coming copper crisis and investment opportunity17:12 - Gold as a stable store of value compared to Bitcoin20:00 - Uranium market opportunities and tourist investors21:44 - S&P earnings projections and market indicators24:18 - Value stock opportunities in a changing market26:10 - NASDAQ vs energy stocks: the massive valuation gap28:42 - Trump's tariff policy and its global investment impact32:21 - Tariffs as both regressive tax and tax on consumption35:00 - Tariff policy creating Lehman-like uncertainty39:14 - The "emerging market" problem facing the US40:00 - Closing thoughts on democratizing financial information

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 247 to discuss tariffs, markets, and the economy.

Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. ⁠https://monetary-metals.com/julia⁠

Chris Whalen explains why the tariff debate is largely a distraction - part of Trump's "shock and awe" strategy to force trading partners to negotiate fairer terms as America attempts to end the Bretton Woods system after 75 years. He sees credit deterioration emerging in auto loans and credit cards while warning about multi-family housing defaults, particularly in smaller urban properties where market indicators show values 50% below their last sale. Despite market fears, Whalen believes the bond market is already cutting rates regardless of Fed action, with the 10-year yield dropping to 3.94% due to strong demand for risk-free collateral and Treasury's efforts to reduce auction sizes. He predicts financial consolidation will continue, pointing to the mortgage industry shrinking to just five major lender/servicer groups, while suggesting investors should look for stock opportunities despite current volatility.

Links:

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X

Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/

0:00 Introduction1:27 Tariffs 3:03 Market reaction assessment5:11 Investment strategy amid volatility7:40 Historical context of tariffs10:37 Main Street vs Wall Street priorities11:17 Impact and distribution of tariff costs13:30 Consumer credit and lending trends15:34 Multi-family housing defaults17:36 Real estate overbuilding concerns18:17 Consumer recession outlook20:46 Job market and recession dynamics22:57 Fed outlook and rate environment24:52 Balance sheet impact discussion26:56 Treasury market outlook29:36 Client questions about market positioning30:57 Closing remarks and contact information

Jim Rickards returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss "MAGAnomics" - the multi-faceted economic strategy of the Trump administration. Rickards explains the three-legged stool of Trump's economic policy: Bessent's 3-3-3 Plan, Navarro's tariff strategy, and Miran's "Mar-a-Lago Accord." He warns of a potential "time bomb" in the financial system if Treasury Bills are swapped for 100-year bonds, discusses why central banks are racing to buy gold, and explains why the current gold rally is "just getting started." Rickards also shares his market outlook, predicting continued market decline and potential recession before long-term economic gains can be realized.

This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit monetary-metals.com/julia

More about Rickards: Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, and his newest book Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter. Links: https://www.amazon.com/MoneyGPT-AI-Threat-Global-Economy/dp/0593718631http://www.jamesrickardsproject.com/ https://x.com/realjimrickards

0:00 - Intro and welcome Jim Rickards

1:04 - Big picture

3:01 - Tariff strategies and market impact

4:49 - Auto industry specifics and tariff implications

6:50 - Discussion on economic principles and strategies

11:05 - Geopolitical impacts of oil pricing

13:17 - How tariffs work in practice

15:27 - Benefits of tariffs and job creation in the US

16:50 - Economic agreements and strategies

27:11 - Treasury strategies and fiscal policies

30:07 - Federal land resources and economic opportunities

31:27 - U.S. financial stability and government strategies

33:26 - Dynamics of U.S. Treasury securities

35:34 - Importance of Treasury bills in global finance

38:32 - Necessity of short-term Treasury bills

39:58 - Discussion on U.S. dollar and trade policies

42:37 - Globalization and economic policies

44:02 - Assessment of current economic moves

45:25 - Gold market dynamics and central bank activities

48:49 - Geopolitical strategy using economic tools

51:13 - Global gold demand and production

53:45 - Market psychology and gold pricing

54:15 - Future prospects of gold market

55:10 - Economic forecasts and stock market trends

58:05 - Interest rate policies and economic implications

59:38 - Final thoughts and where to find Jim Rickards' work

Axel Merk, CIO and founder of Merk Investments with over $2 billion in AUM, shares his perspective on the current macro landscape. He explores how Trump's executive policies around trade and tariffs might alter the "plumbing" of the global financial system, potentially disrupting international capital flows that have long benefited the US. Merk discusses gold's performance as a possible warning signal, stagflationary risks in the economy, and why there is "no such thing as a safe asset" in today's investment environment. With 30 years of investment experience, he provides analysis on monetary policy, inflation concerns, and portfolio diversification strategies for navigating these uncertain times.

This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Timestamps

0:00 Intro and welcome Axel Merk1:11 The big macro picture - viewing through executive policy3:34 Disruption to global financial flows4:30 Potential consequences of changing financial plumbing6:51 Role of the Federal Reserve in market disruptions8:25 What the market gets right and wrong10:26 Gold as a contrarian indicator11:57 Drivers behind gold's performance14:54 Axel's position on gold investments16:00 Investment advice for different types of investors19:12 The "popcorn" investment strategy20:31 Stagflationary risks remain22:05 Growth potential amid regulatory changes24:53 Managing investment risks in volatile times27:47 Long-term debt and entitlement concerns30:46 Global reflation efforts vs US fiscal contraction31:42 Where to find Axel Merk and final thoughts

Peter Boockvar explains why investors must discard the playbook that has worked for the past few years due to three major shifts: the end of the MAG7 tech trade, potential cuts in government spending, and declining foreign flows into US assets. Boockvar notes that these seven stocks reached 35% of the S&P 500 - exceeding the concentration seen in March 2000 - while becoming a global "reserve currency" with central banks like Norway's Norges Bank and the Swiss National Bank owning billions in shares. He identifies emerging opportunities in international markets, with the German DAX up 17% and Hang Seng up 20% year-to-date, while warning that reduced government spending combined with weakening tech investment creates recession risk. Boockvar believes the Fed has diminished power in a new 3-4% inflation environment, pointing to record copper prices as evidence while noting that US defense manufacturers and technology companies face growing international competition.

This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

Substack/The Boock Report: https://boockreport.com/

Twitter/X: https://x.com/pboockvar

Bleakley Financial Group: https://www.bleakley.com/

Timestamps:

0:00 Introduction and welcome Peter Boockvar0:55 Big picture market changes post-COVID3:22 End of AI tech trade dominance5:50 Foreign central bank investment in US stocks7:47 Market pivot to international opportunities10:12 Fed and Treasury coordination on bond yields12:34 Market bounce and valuation concerns14:28 New inflationary environment limiting Fed options16:53 Record copper prices amid inflation volatility18:02 Geopolitical shifts in commodity holdings20:17 Investment opportunities in China tech22:42 Portfolio management in changing market leadership25:12 Foreign flows into US stocks and dollar implications28:21 Recession risk assessment30:33 Closing thoughts on investment approach changes32:57 Final remarks and sign-off

Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 242 to discuss the markets and the economy. He explains why America's K-shaped economy - where the top 10% drives 50% of retail sales - has made the status quo unsustainable. He argues Trump's policies reflect the reality that our $36 trillion debt has become a national security issue requiring allies to pay for their defense rather than relying solely on U.S. taxpayers. Bianco maintains his "no landing" economic outlook, viewing tariffs as negotiation leverage rather than permanent policy. For investors, he predicts bonds will deliver 5% returns with lower volatility compared to stocks' 6-7% annually, making fixed income an attractive alternative after years of TINA (There Is No Alternative).

This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

BiancoResearch.com

BiancoAdvisors.com

x.com/biancoresearch

0:00 Introduction and welcome back Jim Bianco

0:55 Big picture view on K-shaped economy

3:18 Bottom half vs top half income differences

4:38 Top 10% accounting for 50% of retail sales

6:52 Unsustainable fiscal situation and policy shifts

9:12 Mar-a-Lago Accord discussion

14:03 Ukraine situation and security payments

17:44 Fourth Turning analysis and Trump's preparation

21:06 Focus on rebuilding manufacturing jobs

22:28 Bond market analysis and common misconceptions

26:43 Bond yields vs stock market returns

29:28 Stock market valuation and return expectations

31:29 Problems with passive investing

34:42 Market correction reaction and overreaction

38:43 Tesla stock overreaction example

39:59 No landing economic view

42:21 Tariffs as leverage, not permanent policy

43:22 Red Sea shipping disruption analysis

47:08 Houthi drone attacks and economic implications

50:51 Global security costs and European defense spending

54:28 Closing thoughts on economic realignment

Lynette Zang, financial analyst and economist, explains why the US dollar is at the end of its life cycle, with only 3 cents of purchasing power remaining from the original dollar. She details how currency collapses follow predictable patterns, with the current system having effectively died in 2008. Zang calculates gold's fundamental value at over $40,000 per ounce based on global debt divided by available gold, and predicts a hyperinflationary depression as the transition mechanism to a new monetary system. She outlines her eight-part preparation strategy focusing on food, water, energy, security, barterability, wealth preservation, community, and shelter, while advocating for sound money with convertible gold backing to force fiscal responsibility.

Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

https://www.youtube.com/@TheLynetteZang

https://x.com/TheLynetteZang

0:00 Introduction of Lynette Zang

1:22 Big picture view on currency life cycles

3:44 Analysis of pattern recognition in markets

5:55 Discussion of dollar's end game scenario

8:43 Four key functions of money and fiat failures

10:02 Explanation of negative interest rates

11:32 Inflation impact and purchasing power decline

13:56 Gold vs dollar performance since 1913

15:10 Economic outlook and debt sustainability

17:24 Compounding interest and credit exhaustion

20:09 Gold-backed currency and fiscal responsibility

21:25 Gold price behavior and performance analysis

23:51 Gold valuation methodology

26:34 Gold revaluation and confidence loss

28:29 Personal asset allocation strategy

30:32 CBDCs and currency transition tactics

34:13 Monetary reset discussion

37:04 Hyperinflationary depression outlook

40:19 Preparedness strategies and food security

43:49 Detailed home preparedness approach

48:46 Economic outlook beyond recession

51:06 Eight critical preparation categories

52:57 Central bank gold buying motivations

54:42 Gold standard and sound money advocacy

57:39 Perception management and paradigm shifts

1:01:12 Closing thoughts and contact information