Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock, warns that markets are approaching a historic "blow-off top" with the S&P 500 potentially reaching 6,700-6,900 before a devastating crash. Using his business cycle model, he argues we've already hit the "Titanic moment" - where leading indicators have collapsed while markets surge to bubble extremes. Zeberg predicts this "Everything Bubble" will lead to a deflationary crash potentially worse than 2008, followed by a stagflationary period in 2026-2028. He criticizes the Federal Reserve for massive policy errors, focusing on backward-looking inflation data while ignoring consumer distress and housing market deterioration. Despite being long Bitcoin (targeting $150K-$180K), he warns it could crash 80% and sees parallels to subprime risks in corporate treasuries loaded with crypto.

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Links:

X: https://x.com/HenrikZeberg

Substack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/p/final-warning-the-emperors-new-clothes

0:00 Welcome Henrik Zeberg

0:43 Macro framework and business cycle model

3:29 Titanic moment explained

6:09 Blow-off top targets (S&P 6,700-6,900)

8:06 Trading vs investing in this environment

9:30 Market signposts to watch

11:21 Post blow-off top scenario

14:30 How sharp will the decline be?

18:00 Prediction markets showing 20% recession odds

18:54 Liquidity vs solvency problem

23:03 Federal Reserve policy errors

26:21 Fed credibility problems

29:11 What to ask Powell at FOMC

31:09 Will the Fed cut rates in 2025?

33:08 Bitcoin analysis and bubble concerns

37:30 Bitcoin as subprime risk

40:01 Gold outlook and inflation narrative

42:45 The "Everything Bubble" thesis

48:13 How to protect yourself

51:16 Final thoughts and where to find Henrik