The Grant Williams Podcast

In episode eight of Shifts Happen, Luke Gromen returns to discuss the current fiscal situation and its implications for rates trading, explaining how his views on the fiscal situation have made him unpopular among rates traders, as his predictions suggest that their industry may become obsolete. We also discuss the possibility that policymakers either don’t understand the situation, refuse to acknowledge it, or are too deep in to change course, and Luke also highlights the need for a new benchmark for pristine collateral, which he believes will be gold. Also under the microscope is the latest CBO report, which shows the need for a “super bubble” in the US, and Luke offers an explanation as to why he believes a recession in the US is unlikely. Finally, we conclude by looking at the potential outcomes of the current fiscal situation, including the possibility of retrenchment and reshoring or a dangerous escalation leading to nuclear war. Plenty to think about here with Luke once again on top form.

Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com. 

Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

In this episode of The End Game, Bill and Grant are joined by returning guest, Cem Karsan, founder of Kai Volatility, for a mind-bending conversation about the importance and influence of structural flows passive investing and structured products. Cem explains that the market is currently being supported by these structural flows, which have kept the market from experiencing normal fundamentals. However, Cem explains why he believes that at some point, these structural forces will be overcome by fundamental negatives and valuations, leading to a major market correction. Also discussed are the importance of volatility and dispersion in the market, and how these factors can indicate the health of the underlying supply of volatility. and we also touch on the potential for inflation and the role of central banks in managing the debt and inflationary pressures. Cem warns that, while the market may continue to rise in the short term, there are significant risks and challenges ahead that could lead to a major market downturn so beware!

Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com. 

Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

In this episode of The End Game, Bill and Grant are joined by the excellent “Le Shrub,” an anonymous Twitter account both of us have followed religiously for several years. Le Shrub discusses his approach to investing and his use of social media as a feedback loop mechanism. He also shares his views on Japan’s monetary policy, the role of gold and real assets as hedges against fiscal recklessness, and the potential for a market crash after the US election. We discuss the importance of having an outsized allocation to commodities and cash-flowing assets to protect against the risks posed by policymakers’ monetary and fiscal policies, and the significance of certain events, such as the South African elections and the recent Freddie Mac proposal, in shaping market dynamics.

Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com. 

Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

In the latest episode of This Week In Doom, Grant and Doomberg turn their focus to China’s strategic push to become self-sufficient in semiconductor technology, drawing parallels to its successes in electric vehicles and solar energy. Along the way, Doomberg highlights China’s use of intellectual property theft and internal competition to establish national champions like Huawei and we also cover the geopolitical implications of U.S. and European sanctions on China, emphasizing the potential for China to dominate despite Western efforts. Finally, we pick apart the shifting global power dynamics, particularly the weakening of U.S. dollar hegemony and the strengthening alliance between China, Russia, and the global south as we try our hardest to figure out what the hell happens next.

Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com. 

Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

Joining Bill and me for the latest episode of The End Game is fintwit superstar Paulo Macro as we pick apart the problems facing a series of central banks and try to handicap the various outcomes they face as The End Game approaches. On the slate are the Japanese economy, the yen, the Chinese renminbi, and the outlook for gold, with Paulo suggesting that Japan may have a longer road ahead in terms of fighting external pressures and that the BoJ may be able to turn the tide on the yen in the near- to medium-term. We also discusses the possibility of China allowing the renminbi to appreciate rather than devalue, the potential for a weaker dollar to drive the rest of the world’s economies and why Paulo thinks gold is acting more like a currency that may continue to strengthen against other fiat. Finally, Paulo explains why he believes the trading environment is set to become more challenging and that experienced traders will need to be more selective in their strategies.

Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com. 

Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

Joining me for this episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, is author Mark J. Higgins who has just published his excellent new book ‘Investing in US Financial History.’ We begin by discussing the overall importance of understanding financial history and segue into a conversation about the comprehensive narrative of the US financial system from 1790 to the present which his book provides. Mark highlights the role of key figures such as Alexander Hamilton, discusses the establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1913 and introduces one of the least-known, but perhaps biggest trailblazing characters in US financial history: Hetty Green. Higgins also shares his insights on investor behavior and the cyclical nature of markets, as well as his views on the current crypto craze. Throw in Ray Dalio, Andrew Jackson, Robert Triffin and Charlie Munger and there’s something for everyone in this excellent conversation.

Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com. 

Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

Joining Bill Fleckenstein and me once again is our favourite Aussie-based analyst, Gerard Minack, who returns to The End Game to discuss various topics including Japan’s economy and market, US fiscal and monetary policy, central bank independence, gold, and the US dollar. Gerard shares his views on Japan, explaining that while he believes the Japanese equity market is worth being bullish about, he’s not quite as optimistic about the country’s economy. He also addresses the issue of everybody’s favourite issue – Japan’s public sector debt, which Gerard believes is often exaggerated and that the crucial figure to understand -net debt – is actually much lower. We also zero in on the importance of wage growth in Japan and its impact on inflation before pivoting to discuss the broader global markets, where he sees a major gap between market expectations and actual economic conditions. Gerard believes the market is far too optimistic about earnings growth and that there is a risk of a correction in the near future. Other topics under discussion include the US dollar and the recent movements in gold and copper prices.

Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com. 

Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

Steph and Grant return to discuss allllll kinds of stuff including (but not limited to) private credit, the Fed’s balance sheet (I know, I know) inflation and the reality around the market’s curious reliance upon rate cuts.

Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com. 

Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

My guest on this edition of The Grant Williams Podcast is Travis Kling of Ikigai Asset Management, who joins me to explore a concept gaining increasing traction in today’s market environment – financial nihilism. Along the way, we also discuss the delicate balance between keeping interest rates low and inflating our way out of debt, the challenges faced by central banks in managing monetary policy to support economic growth while preventing excessive inflation and the potential impact of technological innovation on inflation as well as the possibility of a great wealth transfer from older generations to younger ones. Of course, we couldn’t end without a discussion around the role of cryptocurrencies in this changing economic landscape, so there’s that as well…

Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com. 

Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

Joining me on this episode of The Grant Williams Podcast is my great friend Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital, for a discussion about global markets and, of course, The Milkshake Theory.

Brent explains how he uses the Theory as a framework to help him understand how a sovereign debt and currency crisis might play out and how, though he’s been uncertain about markets recently, this framework has helped him navigate the volatility.

Brent emphasizes the importance of remaining objective and questioning one’s own beliefs, as well as the need to be prepared for drawdowns in asset prices as we discusses the extraordinary bull market in certainty and the importance of diversification. There’s also time for a look at the current political situation in the US and its potential impact on the markets with Brent arguing that, while the US may be facing political and economic turmoil, the rest of the world still relies heavily on the US dollar, and a divided US would be a disaster for the global economy. Something for everyone in here…

Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com. 

Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.