The market has been in a "bullish stampede" for an impressive while now.

But with corporate earnings deviated by a record amount from their historic averages, extreme stock valuations, and now clear signs the economy is slowing, portfolio manager Lance Roberts sees the odds of a market correction -- and a recession -- rising.

Is there a chance that correction began on Friday?

Lance and I discuss the odds, as well as breakdown the latest economic data, this week's FOMC decision, recession chances, and Lance's firm's latest trades in this week's Market Recap.

For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#marketcorrection #bullmarket #bearmarket _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

The initial Q2 2025 GDP growth number was just released and it beat expectations handily, coming in at a "strong" 3.0%But...when looking just a little bit beneath the surface, the data doesn't look as impressive as on first glance. For example, the biggest contributor by far to the "beat" was shrinking inventories relative to the massive Q1 pre-orders that were made as corporations front-ran the Trump tariffs.So, just as the negative Q1 GDP number wasn't truly as bad as it seemed, similarly the Q2 number isn't as robust as the headline suggests.The team from New Harbor Financial and I dig into what the true reality likely is, as well as discuss the latest FOMC release, the tremendous amount of speculation in the markets today, and the latest price action in gold, silver and Bitcoin.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#economy #federalreserve #gdp _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

A few hours ago, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee released the outcome of its meeting this week, keeping its policy rate unchanged (as expected) as well as the pace of its Quantitative Tightening program.

And just a little while ago, Fed Chair Jerome Powell just wrapped up his press conference related to this release. The market’s reaction (so far) has been fairly negative, with the S&P dropping in the red over the past hour.

And I’m also happy to announce that Fed-watcher Axel Merk is joining us again to deliver his expert reaction to the Fed’s latest guidance as well as take your questions live.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#federalreserve #inflation #interestrates

The last time I interviewed today's guest was right after the stock market plunged 20% to its post-Liberation Day lows in April.Wall Street was stunned, as just a few months before, the market seemed unstoppable.Well, here we are three months later...and stocks have rocketed back to new highs.The fears that panicked investors so much back in April seem completely forgotten.What is going on and what's most likely to happen from here?To discuss, we're fortunate to be joined today by David Hay, the up-until-recently Chief Investment Officer & Principal at Evergreen Gavekal. He now publishes daily investing commentary on his excellent Haymaker Substack.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#bearmarket #deficit #debt 0:00 - Market Recovery3:01 - The Trump Turnaround10:26 - Debts, Deficits, and Fed Balance Sheet15:37 - Bond Market Breakouts23:16 - Emerging Market Bonds31:03 - Tariffs and Economic Impacts46:56 - Student Loans and Delinquencies52:42 - AI and Productivity58:01 - Crypto and Bitcoin Treasuries:1:10:22 - Investment Recommendations1:21:13 - New Harbor Update_____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

Earlier this year the markets sold off rather violently on fears that President Trump's new tariffs would send global trade into a tailspin.Fast forward three months and stocks are back to all-time highs, even as it's becoming clearer that these tariffs, in some shape or form, are here to stay.Are tariffs not the grave mistake Wall Street originally thought they were?Or have investors simply decided to stop caring about them?To discuss, we're fortunate to welcome to the program, Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#marketcorrection #bonds #tariffs 0:00 - Current Economic Assessment6:16 - Tariff Lag Effects10:26 - Jobs Market Weakness25:53 - Recession Risks and Policy Outlook35:35 - Rates and Fed Coordination42:42 - Market Outlook and Investments50:50 - Crypto and The GENIUS Act55:59 - Closing and Resources: Adam thanks Tchir, promotes his X handle (@TFMKTS), Academy Securities, and TheStreet.com; encourages subscriptions and financial advisor consultations._____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

Despite stretched valuation levels and further signs that the consumer is struggling, stocks are partying on.

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts sees stocks prices as having "detached from all the underlying economic data" at this point.

That doesn't mean they won't go even higher still here in the near term.

But he does think the probability of a correction is now quite high.

So how is he positioning for that?

We discuss that, as well as what earnings season is currently telling us, what the Fed is most likely to announce next week, how AI is super-concentrating wealth in both the corporate sector as well as consumer households, the long term risks to the markets, and Lance's firm's latest trades.

For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.

#federalreserve #marketcorrection #artificialintelligence

0:00 - Market Outlook and Correction Risks18:35 - Portfolio Adjustments:21:36 - Fed Policy and Trump’s Influence41:12 - Earnings Insights56:01 - Wealth Concentration and AI1:03:35 - Economic Data and Consumer Debt1:11:07 - Long-Term Market Risks1:25:00 - Gold and Crypto Update1:31:27 - Life Philosophy Rant1:47:04 - Closing and Resources_____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

With the US and nearly every other major G7 country engaging in historically high levels of deficit spending and increasingly struggling to service their massive sovereign debt balances -- how does this all resolve?Is there a path to a manageable ending here?Or does is debt crisis, or a currency crisis -- or both -- inevitable at this point?In attempt to answer these fiscally existential questions, we're fortunate to be joined by two great macro minds: Luke Gromen of FFTT LLC and Darius Dale of 42Macro.It's a true privilege to host both of these gentlemen on this platform at the same time.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#debtcrisis #inflation #deficit

0:00 - America’s Fiscal Situation

5:56 - Fiscal Unsustainability Details

10:26 - Short-Term vs. Long-Term Outlook

18:26 - Fed Policy and US Treasury Dynamics

29:32 - Powell Replacement Implications

34:56 - Investment Themes in Growth and Print Phases

48:01 - Societal Impacts of Wealth Inequality

1:15:14 - Life Advice for The 4th Turning

1:17:36 - Societal and Economic Outlook

1:21:51 - Closing and Resources_____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

Analyst Stephanie Pomboy returns for her bi-weekly macro & market update.

We discuss the continued strength in stocks, which are back to all-time highs — only three months after Wall Street’s violent sell-off due to fears of tariff repercussions.How sustainable is this current rally?We discuss that, as well as the grinding weight of “higher for longer” bond yields, the potential of the President to appoint a “shadow Fed Chair” between now and the end of Powell’s term, Steph’s outlook for gold, and the long-term inevitability of a re-expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet.

SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#federalreserve #stocks #goldprice __________________________________________________Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce & distribute educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

The US is ramping up its issuance of Treasury debt.Today's expert is concerned that this form of "fiscal QE" will lead to a resurgence in inflation, higher bond yields, a risk asset sugar high, a weaker dollar...and quite possibly a development market bond crisis.To understand why, today we're fortunate to sit down with Simon White, Macro Strategist at Bloomberg and co-founder of the investment-advisory firm Variant Perception.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#bondmarket #debtcrisis #deficit 0:00 - Global Economic Outlook5:58 - Why Markets Ignore Risks7:34 - Market Optimism and Trump Policies9:17 - Tariff Burden Sharing12:54 - Tariffs and Inflation15:37 - Tariff Strategy Evaluation18:51 - Strategic Tariff Implications22:00 - Fiscal QE Definition and Impact29:38 - Fiscal QE and Fed Policy Conflict32:37 - Unemployment and Recession Risks38:18 - Fiscal QE’s Market and Economic Effects44:32 - Bond Crisis and Economic Outlook46:40 - Financial Repression and Stablecoins50:06 - Investment Implications58:32 - Closing and Resources1:01:17 - Parting Advice on Health and Wealth_____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.

Over the course of his long and successful career, David Stockman has been both a Washington DC AND Wall Street insider.He was the youngest serving cabinet member of the 20th century (heading the Office of Management & Budget under Reagan), served as a US State Representative, and was an early member of Blackstone.So he knows better than most people alive how our political, economic and financial systems work.Which is why we should listen closely when he talks of our current runaway deficit spending and mountain of public & private debt and concludes "this won't end well".To hear his informed reasons why, watch this video.#deficit #debtcrisis #federalreserve 0:00 - Federal Debt Crisis Overview7:05 - Critique of the “One Big Beautiful Bill”14:05 - End of Central Bank Absorption19:33 - Inflation as a Limiter24:04 - Response to Administration’s Growth Strategy33:25 - Political Pendulum and Progressive Policies37:24 - Potential Debate with Art Laffer47:02 - Investment Themes for a Turbulent Future50:03 - George H.W. Bush story53:04 - (Lack of) Economic Literacy in Congress:56:15 - Federal Reserve as Enabler1:01:16 - Closing and Resources_____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.