The market is at a critical point, observes portfolio manager Lance Roberts.If the S&P can hold above the 200 daily moving average over the coming week, then the correction will be officially over and stocks should have an open field to run back up to the previous highs (and possibly higher).If not, then the odds that the recent run have been a bear market rally -- one that will fizzle out and send stocks lower again -- become much more likely.Lance and I discuss the probabilities, as well as bonds, AI, this week's promising data releases, as well as Lance's firm's latest trades in today's Weekly Recap.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#bearmarket #bullmarket #ai 0:00 - Lance 60th birthday wishes3:47 - Status of “sell the rip” strategy8:30 - Technical analysis & market pathways15:06 - Overbought conditions & risk management24:34 - Rising bond yields’ drivers30:59 - Bonds’ role in portfolios36:02 - TLT & bond investment pitfalls43:38 - Emotional investing & risk reduction49:13 - Sentiment-driven market volatility52:04 - Economic data & tariff impacts1:07:21 - Trump administration’s policy momentum1:22:11 - Upside scenario: economic golden era1:29:30 - Downside scenario: policy failure.1:31:17 - Rant: AI’s job displacement threat1:41:46 - Lance's recent portfolio trades.1:45:04 - Parting advice: stay unemotional_____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

It's said that the "Trump put" on financial markets is not on the S&P in this second term, but rather on the 10year US Treasury yield.The rise in Treasury yields since 2022 has sent the cost of servicing America's federal debt to record highs, exceeding spending on national defense for fiscal year 2024.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has indicated his and the President's desire to get the 10year yield comfortably under 4%....but that's proving difficult.In fact, after falling to 4.1% two week ago, the yield has quickly shot back up to near 4.5% as of the day of this recording.Why is it proving so tricky to tame bond yields?And what will it mean for the economy & markets if they can't be?For answers, we have the great fortune today of turning to veteran money manager Bill Fleckenstein and founder of Fleckenstein capital.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#bonds #interestrates #gold _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

Progress on trade deals has returned investor optimism to the financial markets.The S&P has regained all of its April losses and is now green for the year.But the growing sense that “everything is going to be OK” ignores the elephant in the room, warns macro analyst Stephanie Pomboy: stubbornly high bond yields.The longer the US 10year Treasury stays near or above its current 4.5% yield, the more that over-leveraged companies are going to start stumbling.We discuss the implications should that happen. We also war-game out what it will mean for the economy & financial markets should the Trump Administration succeed in implementing its policy targets….as well as what it will look like if he fails.#recession #marketcorrection #tariffs

Last year, fears of recession faded from the headlines as the "no landing" narrative won out.But the disruption brought by the new Trump administration -- especially around global trade -- has brought recession concerns back to the forefront.The Administration says it isn't worried. That we're merely passing through a transitory "detox" period before new trade deals, tax cuts and de-regulation kick in to turbo-charge economic growth.Others fear a more pronounced slowdown is in the cards.So which outlook is more likely?To find out, we have the good fortune to speak today with Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist for QI Research LLC and author of the book "Fed Up: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America"WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#recession #bearmarket #marketcorrection _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

The pace of change in the world order has accelerated notably in 2025.The era of globalization is being fast replaced by nationalism, protectionism and a shift towards regional trading blocks.In America, there's suddenly a recognition that runaway deficit spending and the accumulating pile of debt & unfunded liabilities is an existential problem that needs dealing with.How are these accelerating developments changing the outlook for the future?For insight, we're fortunate to welcome macro analyst and interviewer extraordinaire Grant Williams back to the program.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#goldprice #globalization #trumpeconomy _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

The current stock market rally looks long in the tooth, warns portfolio manager Lance Roberts.In his opinion, this looks likely to be a good time to lighten on positions, capture gains and prepare for a possible resumption to the downside.Stocks are exhibiting a classic correction trajectory, which historically has been punctuated with pronounced sharp rebounds like we've seen over the recent two weeks.Investors are starting to catch FOMO and aggressively jump back in. This may be the *exact* wrong time to do so.Lance and I discuss his argument for why, as well as the latest trade developments and Federal Reserve guidance from this week.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#tariffs #marketcorrection #federalreserve _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

The world economy has become a lot more uncertain in 2025.The shift away from decades of globalization towards nationalism and regional trading blocks has accelerated with the protectionist policies the new Trump administration is now pursuing.Gold has reacted to this uncertainty by soaring to new highs, and demand for other commodities is also in high flux right now.Where is all this headed?And are there opportunities the discerning investor can take advantage of amidst all this change?For answers, we're fortunate to be joined by Rick Rule, one of the world's greatest living natural resource investors, and a heck of a gentleman, to boot.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#dollar #goldprice #commodities _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.comPortfolio manager & Fed-watcher Axel Merk shares his immediate take-aways from this week's FOMC release and press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He'll also take live Q&A from viewers.🎙️ New to streaming or looking to level up? Check out StreamYard and get $10 discount! 😍 https://streamyard.com/pal/d/6012317492969472

History tells us that civilizations and societies boom, bust and rise anew to repeat the pattern -- a pattern that demographer Neil Howe says is surprisingly predictable in both its timing and trajectory.Howe refers to these "seasons" of societal change as "turnings", and has famously has declared America is now well into a Fourth Turning, the "bust" part of its cycle -- where the status quo falls apart -- often chaotically -- and is replaced by a brand new order.Well, in its first 100 days, the Trump administration has certainly made big -- and some would day disruptive or even chaotic -- strides in its attempt to replace the previous status quo with a new playbook, both domestically and internationally.Is this the kind of textbook Fourth Turning upheaval that Howe expected?To find out, as well as what further transformation he expects ahead, we'll ask the man himself.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#fourthturning #trumpeconomy #nationalism _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

When today's guest expert was last on this channel, he predicted that the financial markets would have a "sloppy" start to 2025, but then find their footing and rise to new highs -- possibly as high as 7000 on the S&P -- by the end of the year.Of course, that was before the new Administration took office and all that has happened since then.So, is he still as bullish with his year-end outlook for stocks?Or have recent developments like the Trump tariffs required a downshifting of expectations?To find out, we're fortunate to be joined by Dr. Ed Yardini, President of Yardeni Research.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#recession #bearmarket #bullmarket _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.