Palisades Gold Radio

Tom Bodrovics your host welcomes back Dave Kranzler from Investment Research Dynamics. Kranzler discusses the impact of the upcoming election on national debt and market conditions, expressing concern over the mounting deficit and lack of government spending reductions. He highlights the importance of military spending, handouts, and domestic spending in keeping the economy afloat, but warns of potential economic collapse without significant spending cuts.

Kranzler expresses concerns about the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve’s gold holdings. He questions their true possession of reported reserves and lack of audits.

Kranzler believes that liquidity, not monetary policy, is the crucial factor keeping markets and banks functioning in today’s hyper-financialized economy. Despite the Fed’s reduction in its balance sheet and hawkish monetary policy, M2 has continued to grow, and over $2 trillion has been drained from the reverse repo facility to finance the treasury deficit and prop up sagging markets.

Kranzler expresses his belief that gold’s price in dollars is setting up a favorable position and silver’s cup-and-handle formation and industrial usage make it an attractive investment opportunity. He also shares his concerns about banks’ actual silver positions, the opacity surrounding these positions, and potential consequences if hedge funds request delivery of actual bars from the COMEX market.

Kranzler discusses the importance of understanding the production deficit in the silver market and investing in pure silver plays. He emphasizes that all stock purchases involve risk but is currently watching closely mid-tier producers.

Kranzler also discusses the role of confidentiality agreements and feasibility studies in attracting larger companies to junior mining projects. He encourages investors to focus on a few stocks they believe in and learn how to analyze these stocks for potential returns.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:42 – Election & Market Effects
3:24 – Implosion Inevitable
4:20 – U.S. Gold Audits & Fed
11:57 – Liquidity & Banks
16:09 – Fed’s Next Move?
20:36 – Precious Metals Outlook
28:38 – Silver Production Deficit
33:26 – Mexico & Mining?
36:34 – Silver Miners?
43:05 – Silver Speculation?
44:44 – Eric Sprott
47:07 – M&A Targets?
50:23 – Feasibility Studies?
55:10 – Streaming Agreements
56:34 – Finding Value in Miners
1:01:02 – Risks & Considerations
1:05:39 – Wrap Up

Talking Points From This Episode

Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/InvResDynamics
Website: https://investmentresearchdynamics.com
Newsletter: https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/mining-stock-journal

David Kranzler spent many years working in various analytic jobs and trading on Wall Street. For nine of those years, he traded junk bonds for Bankers Trust. Dave earned a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Chicago, concentrating on accounting and finance. He writes a blog to help people understand and analyze what is going on in our financial system and economy.

As the sun sets, the video quality improves, and Tom Bodrovics once again engages in a thoughtful conversation with the legendary Rick Rule. The discussion revolves around Rick’s busy post-retirement life, the current gold and silver investment environment, and investing strategies in the metals industry.

Rick admits his retirement was unsuccessful as he continues to be engrossed in work, but he appreciates the reduced regulatory engagement since leaving Sprott. He enjoys sharing knowledge of past mentors through interviews and events like the Rule Investment Symposium, which offers a money-back guarantee for attendees. Rick believes that attending conferences for informal conversations and connections is essential.

They discuss the macroeconomic factors influencing gold and silver investments, such as increasing costs affecting mining companies’ profitability and the potential $135 trillion debt in the US economy leading to inflation and boosting metal prices. The conversation delves into investing strategies for retail investors, from owning physical gold first to building a portfolio based on beta.

Rick shares his experiences with political risk and success stories in countries like Chile, Congo, and South Sudan, emphasizing the importance of understanding political and jurisdictional risks. He discusses investment opportunities in natural resource sectors like gold and silver, as well as contrarian picks such as North American natural gas and the lithium market. Rick also expresses interest in investing in private placements that can significantly enhance a company’s value.

Throughout the conversation, they touch upon topics such as patience, long-term vision, competency, and corporate strategy. They also discuss the importance of having an opinion on value and being able to endure market volatility. Rick shares key lessons from his career as an investor, stressing the significance of contrarianism, understanding market dynamics, and patience.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:48 – Failing at Retirement
3:00 – Conference & Guarantee
5:36 – State of Resource Sector
8:54 – Fed Cuts & Politics
17:07 – A Triumph of Politics
18:35 – Shelton & Gold Treasuries?
20:18 – First Gold Bull Moves
25:30 – Investor Risk Appetites
27:02 – Global Demand & Bullion?
30:36 – Investor Types & Gold
35:32 – Studying Miners & Risks
39:30 – New Investor Advice
42:25 – Common Sense Rules
45:33 – A Contrarian Approach?
49:26 – Timeframe & Questions
54:04 – M&A Deals & Newmont
57:26 – Management & Mine Cycles
59:57 – Exploration Cap-Ex
1:04:10 – Other Mkt. Sectors
1:10:29 – Private Placements
1:12:44 – Lessons Learned
1:17:33 – Offers & Wrap Up

12:20 – Highlight Clip

Talking Points From This Episode

Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/realrickrule
Twitter: https://twitter.com/realinvestmentmedia
Website: https://ruleinvestmentmedia.com
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@RuleInvestmentMedia
Classroom: https://ruleclassroom.com
Bank Site: https://battlebank.com

Rick Rule has dedicated his entire adult life to many aspects of natural resources securities investing. Besides the knowledge and experience gained in a long and focused career, he has a global network of contacts in the natural resources and finance sectors.

Mr. Rule is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and is regularly interviewed for radio, television, print, and online media outlets concerning natural resources investment and industry topics. Prominent natural resources-oriented newsletters and advisories frequently quote him. Mr. Rule and his team have expertise in many resource sectors, including agriculture, alternative energy, forestry, oil and gas, mining, and water.

Mr. Rule is particularly active in private placement markets, having originated in hundreds of debt and equity transactions with private, pre-public, and public companies.

Tom Bodrovics and Keith Weiner delve into the intricacies of fundamental price and basis rates in the gold and silver markets during their conversation on Palisades. The Gold Standard Institute president and Monetary Metals CEO, elucidates how their model offers insights into market tensions and potential price movements by determining where the market would settle if all futures speculation were to unwind. Keith also discusses lease rates, which reflect metal abundance or scarcity, in relation to market evaluations for gold and silver investments.

The conversation revolves around the disparity between the costs of producing and refining gold and silver, with significant spreads for refiners. Although mining costs are essential considerations, Keith argues that all potential gold supply remains in circulation due to its value and desirability. Keith challenges the Quantity Theory of Money and Milton Friedman’s treatment of gold and printed dollars as equivalent, emphasizing their differences in origin and effects on the economy.

Weiner also discusses the implications of an ever-growing US national debt and interest payments. He argues that the world operates on a dollar basis, creating a relentless bid on the dollar despite its growing debt. Keith discusses commercial real estate bubble and the impact on banks and zombie companies, raising concerns about potential insolvency due to rising interest rates and loan asset markdowns.

The conversation concludes with discussions about upcoming financial crises, including the ‘everything bubble,’ and the potential dilemmas facing the Federal Reserve in addressing it, given the larger debt levels and more significant interest rate hikes than during previous periods. Keith highlights the importance of creating an honest monetary system based on gold, emphasizing market-based alternatives to Keynesian philosophy and personal opt-out options to avoid capital debasement.

Talking Points From This Episode
0:00 – Introduction
0:40 – Measuring Price of PMs
8:32 – Current Market Temps
10:40 – Analysis & Lease Rates
14:14 – All-In Production Costs
19:22 – Do Fundamentals Matter?
22:57 – Qty. Theory of Money
35:27 – Debt & Interest Payments
41:37 – Commercial Debt & Banks
55:26 – Bank Bailouts & Fed
59:40 – Central Planning Problems
1:06:30 – Kicking Cans & Politics
1:11:32 – Any Possible Solutions?
1:23:18 – Net Worth & Risk/Return
1:31:10 – Wrap Up

Talking Points From This Episode

Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/kweiner01
Website: https://monetary-metals.com
Website: https://goldstandardinstitute.net
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/keith.weiner.5

Keith Weiner is the founder and CEO of Monetary Metals, an investment firm that is unlocking the productivity of gold. Most people regard gold as a dry asset, to lock away in a vault, incurring storage fees. Many are waiting for it to rise in price.

Keith and Monetary Metals are on a mission to change this.

Gold should once again serve to finance productive enterprises and extinguish debts. The dollar performs one of these functions, but not the other. Bitcoin cannot finance anything, as no business can borrow a currency that’s expected to go up a hundred times. Gold is the one thing that fills both roles, par excellence.

Keith writes and speaks extensively, based on his unique views of gold, the dollar, credit, the bond market, and interest rates. When he is not working on the business, he is developing his theory of monetary science, and an arbitrage theory of economics.

Keith also serves as founder and President of the Gold Standard Institute USA. His work was instrumental in the passing of gold legal tender laws in the state of Arizona in 2017. He has met with central bankers, legislators, and government officials around the world.

Tom welcomes a well known and interesting guest for the first time to the show, Dr. Judy Shelton. Judy is Senior Fellow at the Independent Institute and author of Good as Gold, passionately advocates for sound money as a moral obligation of governments to their citizens. Sound money, according to Shelton, should maintain its value over time, acting as an unchanging standard for economic planning and transactions. She criticizes the Federal Reserve’s policy of debasing the U.S. dollar through inflation targeting, which undermines its purchasing power and creates inequality in society.

The Federal Reserve was initially established to provide an elastic currency that addressed seasonal economic fluctuations. However, the role of the Fed has shifted significantly over time, leading to concerns about its growing dependence on the government for budgeting needs and potential consequences for the economy and small businesses.

Shelton argues for market-determined interest rates, pointing to historical examples like the gold standard. She also highlights the importance of accurate data in monetary policy decision-making and critiques central banks’ conflicting policies on a global scale that can lead to currency wars and instability in international trade.

Shelton advocates for a new international monetary system anchored by a gold convertible long-term US Treasury bond, which would promote stability and accountability in international transactions. She recalls her unsuccessful nomination to the Federal Reserve and expresses her belief that economic growth under President Trump’s agenda and Elon Musk’s involvement could lead to controlling the budget and promoting sound money. Shelton urges for less central planning by governments, believing there is a collective yearning for trustworthy, stable money in society.

The interview concludes with Dr. Judy Shelton expressing her gratitude for the opportunity to discuss her ideas and the success of her book “Good as Gold” on Amazon’s charts. She encourages listeners to get radical and demand sound money from their governments for a more prosperous economy based on individual liberty.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:45 – Sound Money & Morality
2:27 – Money Vs. Currency
4:32 – Price Stability?
11:52 – Fed Control & Hubris
18:30 – Central Planning & Mkts
24:03 – Fed ‘Independence’
27:20 – Pricing Money Free Mkt.
36:10 – C.B. Global Effects
39:34 – BRICS & Gold?
44:34 – U.S. Gold Bonds?
55:30 – Golds History of Restraint
59:15 – Politics & Financial Plans
1:01:59 – Nominee & ‘Extreme Views’
1:10:22 – Book ‘Good as Gold’
1:11:50 – Get Radical & Wrap Up

Talking Points From This Episode

Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/judyshel

Book: Good as Gold: How to Unleash the Power of Sound Money
https://www.amazon.com/Good-Gold-Unleash-Power-Sound/dp/1598133896

Dr. Judy Shelton is a senior fellow at Independent Institute, former chairman of the National Endowment for Democracy, and former US director of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. She has provided testimony before the Senate and has been consulted on international monetary issues by the White House and the Pentagon. She is the author of multiple books and has written for the Wall Street Journal and Financial Times.

In case you missed part one, the full version is available on X, Rumble and various Podcast apps.

In part two, the discussion continues around Dave’s skepticism towards various economic topics, including the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts and market valuations. He argues for a return to realistic expectations and understanding debt and returns.

The Professor expresses concerns about current leaders, financialization, and growing geopolitical realignments.

Dave envisions gold becoming the world’s reserve currency within the next decade and expresses his high conviction in gold investments, advocating for cash during market downturns and sharing past experiences. He criticizes the Bank of England’s selling tactics and platinum investment opportunities despite instability in South Africa.

Lastly Collum discussed his recent podcast comment experiences, the declining value of college degrees, and proposed a funding plan for student loans.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Lack of Introduction
0:19 – Staying Objective & Fed Cut s
10:38 – Hedonic Adjustments
13:54 – Easy Money & Bad Signals
22:32 – General Vs. Specialization
26:13 – BRICS Realignment
30:42 – 40-Year Bear Market
36:16 – Commercial Real Estate
40:10 – Gold & Brown’s Bottom
43:39 – Platinum & Miners
45:23 – Travel & Impressions
50:04 – Opportunity & Miners
52:29 – Podcast Comments & Tops
54:40 – 1925 S&P To Now & M2
57:00 – Ponzi Demographics
1:02:09 – Constructive Comments?
1:05:24 – Education is Rotting
1:10:00 – Wrap Up

Guest Links
Twitter: https://x.com/davidbcollum
Website: https://collum.chem.cornell.edu/

David B. Collum is an American Chemist and professor at Cornell University. He currently teaches a graduate Chemistry and Chemical biology course.

He also runs the Collum group, which focuses on how aggregation and solvation dictate the reactivity and selectivity of organolithium compounds commonly used by synthetic chemists in academia and the pharmaceutical industry.

Ph.D., Columbia University, MA Columbia University, BS Cornell University.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back the always entertaining Professor Dave Collum for a pre-election discussion. David is Professor of Chemistry at Cornell University and a forthright Market Commentator.

Collum expresses his concerns about the election’s candidates and their historical roles. He suggests that Trump, despite having moral weaknesses, may have matured with a stronger conviction than Harris, who he believes lacks intellect and understanding of her role in history.

Collum touches on morally unguided leaders, stating people are tired of such individuals, which could influence the election’s outcome. He also discusses potential violence surrounding the election and the impact of mail-in ballots on fairness perception. Furthermore, he shares thoughts on societal moral decay and the impacts on markets and relationships.

Dave critiques FDR’s actions during WWII, referencing books like American Betrayal, The Red Thread, and New Deal or Raw Deal.

The conversation delves back into politics and ethics. One person regretted dismissing JD Vance and saw Kamala Harris’ “unburdened by what has been” as a potentially effective message. They discussed free speech, accountability, and concerns about weaponizing of the justice system.

The discussion also questions the phenomenon of gender reassignment among young people, suggesting it might be rooted in a lack of meaning or purpose. They criticized questionable practices and silenced voices regarding the medical community and government’s role.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:54 – Elections & Expectations
9:20 – Internet Friends
12:09 – Censorship & Control
16:30 – FDR & New Deal
19:52 – USSR Made In USA
29:12 – Underestimating Dems.
32:26 – Judicial Weaponization
36:18 – Age of Unaccountability
43:25 – Kids, & Finding Meaning
48:45 – Covid & Experiments
58:44 – Influencing the Outcome
1:01:06 – Students & Tribalism

Guest Links
Twitter: https://x.com/davidbcollum
Website: https://collum.chem.cornell.edu/

David B. Collum is an American Chemist and professor at Cornell University. He currently teaches a graduate Chemistry and Chemical biology course.

He also runs the Collum group, which focuses on how aggregation and solvation dictate the reactivity and selectivity of organolithium compounds commonly used by synthetic chemists in academia and the pharmaceutical industry.

Ph.D., Columbia University, MA Columbia University, BS Cornell University.

Tom welcomes back John Rubino, former Wall Street analyst, author and Substacker https://rubino.substack.com for a discussion on the gold mining industry’s recent trends during the third quarter earnings reports. Despite the increase in gold prices, mining stocks have underperformed due to factors like rising costs and geopolitical risks. However, strong earning reports from top companies are attracting momentum investors, potentially triggering a bull market for precious metals. John emphasizes the importance of investing psychology and buying undervalued assets during bear markets. He also discusses the cyclicality of mining sector, potential acquisitions following strong earnings, and the significance of both fundamental setups and technical indicators when considering gold and silver investments. Additionally, Russia’s decision to buy silver for its strategic reserve fund is affecting the silver market by tightening supply and increasing upward pressure on prices. Despite economic uncertainties, investors are encouraged to seek opportunities in this environment.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:43 – Miners & Earnings
4:56 – Underperformance?
7:09 – Numerous Good Sectors
11:03 – Peaky Bubbles
15:28 – Miners, Cycles, & M&A
21:14 – Miner Behaviors & Results
27:56 – Buyouts & Shareholders
30:12 – Technicals/Fundamentals
36:42 – Wage Price Spiral
41:58 – Russia Buying Silver
43:51 – Wrap Up

Talking Points From This Episode

Guest Links
Substack: https://rubino.substack.com
Books: https://tinyurl.com/5buyvy6v

John Rubino is a former Wall Street financial analyst and author or co-author of five books, including The Money Bubble: What To Do Before It Pops. He founded the popular financial website DollarCollapse.com in 2004 and sold it in 2022, and now publishes on Substack.

In this episode of Palisades Gold Radio, your host Tom Bodrovics invites back Michael Oliver from Momentum Structural Analysis to discuss the stock market’s present condition in relation to the upcoming US election. Michael expresses his view that the markets have not fully accounted for the uncertainty and potential instability arising from the election. He references historical precedents of market reactions following unpredictable election results, specifically the bull market peaks in 2000 and 2007, where interest rate cuts after periods of hikes led to significant downturns.

Michael shares his perspective on the economy, emphasizing that the Fed has shifted its focus from inflation control to defending the economy due to Powell’s concerns over an inadequate job market, particularly in manufacturing and essential industries, and a looming debt crisis. He discusses the potential consequences for the bond market and gold prices, suggesting that when the stock market corrects, data points will shift, prompting Fed concern about solvency and the need to roll over substantial amounts of debt with increasing interest costs.

Michael discusses the potential for a government debt crisis and its impact on gold, predicting a short-term rally in T-bonds as assets flow out of stocks into perceived safety but an ultimately downward trend in terms of price and upward yield. He also highlights the significance of commodities related to agriculture, energy, and base metals following gold’s lead during market upswings.

Michael explains the correlation between stock markets and the US dollar index, emphasizing that increased losses may create demand for the dollar but warning that historically, major swings in the dollar index have followed the stock market trends rather than assisting it in times of potential breakdowns.

Michael uses an analogy to describe gold’s relationship with silver, viewing it as a ‘mama market’ with silver acting as an unpredictable ‘wild dog on a leash.’ He explains that while gold sets trends, silver exhibits seemingly irrational swings but ultimately follows the same direction. The underperforming gold miners GDX are expected to outperform gold in the future, and silver’s industrial significance could lead to increased attention once prices take off.

Predicting significant price increases for gold, Michael suggests that conditions such as stock market instability, central bank issues, and government debt markets could drive a surge reminiscent of the late 1970s and early 1980s, where gold experienced eightfold growth.

Michael concludes with a discussion of the potential for market instability due to unpredictable outcomes from the US election, with both parties experiencing desperation and panic contributing to an unstable stock market. He also references Javier Milei’s presidency in Argentina as a reminder of the need for painful changes in response to decades of mismanagement and anticipates an intriguing and consequential period ahead.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:31 – Markets & The Elections
8:04 – Yen & the Nikk ei
11:46 – Fed & Liquidity
14:15 – Bond Markets & Service
20:45 – Gold & Commodities
24:33 – Dollar Crisis & Demand
27:16 – Complexities & Timeframes
32:50 – Sell Offs & Metals
35:52 – Silver Vs. Gold Spreads
41:32 – Metals & Fundamentals
46:19 – Gold Miners & Signals
49:43 – Earnings & Margins
51:38 – Miners & Mining Tiers
55:16 – Debt Crisis & The Metals
1:02:42 – Political Upsets
1:06:51 – Wrap Up

Talking Points From This Episode

Guest Links:
Alasdair MacLeod Video: https://vimeo.com/1017577311/aaaf32f856
Website: http://www.olivermsa.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Oliver_MSA
Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/y2roa7p5
Free Report email: [email protected]

Email MSA above, and they will send you this week’s report for free, which covers many of the topics from this interview.

J. Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton’s International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City’s Battery Park. He studied under David Johnston, head of Hutton’s Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX.

In the 1980s, Mike began to develop his proprietary momentum-based method of technical analysis. He learned early on that orthodox price chart technical analysis left many unanswered questions and too often deceived those who trusted in price chart breakouts, support/resistance, and so forth.

In 1987 Mike technically anticipated and caught the Crash. It was then that he decided to develop his structural momentum tools into a full analytic methodology.

In 1992, the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank’s Trust Department asked Mike to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year, Mike shifted from brokerage to full-time technical analysis. He is also the author of The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes Feargus O’Connor Greenwood, author of “180 Degrees: Unlearn the Lies That You’ve Been Taught to Believe.” This conversation centers around understanding the financial system and changing perspectives. Feargus wrote his book due to widespread deception and manipulation in society, aiming to expose deceit, break the hold of authority, and equip readers with effective communication tools. He believes that the financial system exists not for individual prosperity but as a tool to create money from nothing and exert control. Money has functions and attributes, and Feargus stresses the importance of understanding its origins and creation.

Feargus discusses the historical manipulation of currencies by entities like the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve, arguing these institutions have caused economic depressions and perpetuated corruption. He believes fixing the monetary system is essential for solving global issues and restoring free market incentives. He sees gold, silver, and crypto as safe havens against potential hyperinflation and anticipates a significant price move in silver due to increasing demand.

Feargus discusses the potential for physical demand of metals to potentially break markets. Technological advancements are also discussed as having potential impacts on the markets. Feargus believes Bitcoin will have a role as both a decentralized currency bringing freedom and like any tool has potential for tyrannical applications.

The importance of truth, and understanding situations through a lens of proving what didn’t happen rather than what did is explored. Feargus also discusses the concept of empire collapse and symptoms of decay. False flags are defined as covert operations designed to deceive and identified by broken emergency protocols, hidden evidence, and perpetrators linked with intelligence services.

Feargus discusses effective communication strategies to deploy when explaining non-mainstream topics. These include starting small, avoiding arguments, using analogies, and practicing active listening. Feargus’ book provides further insights into these strategies. The conversation concludes by discussing the importance of morality and ethics as essential elements for the survival of any society.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:56 – Systemic Lies & His Book
4:03 – Financial System Purpose
8:20 – Money From Nothing
10:20 – Infinite Money = Corruption
12:16 – First Order Problems
15:22 – Money Supply Booms/Busts
19:04 – Central Bank Origins
22:30 – Savings Vs. Inflation
25:15 – Silver & Manipulation
29:29 – Purpose of the B.I.S.
32:25 – Possible Solutions
38:24 – Origin of Bitcoin?
40:48 – Describing Reality
45:47 – Empire Collapse Cycles
48:37 – Broken Protocols
54:17 – Facing Truth & Reality
57:43 – Elections & Fraud
1:01:08 – Ten Solutions
1:20:00 – Wrap Up

Guest Links:
Book: https://www.amazon.com/180-Degrees-Unlearn-Taught-Believe/dp/1915236002/
EMail: [email protected]

Talking Points From This Episode

Feargus is the author of 180 Degrees: Unlearn the Lies You’ve Been Taught to Believe. Over 10,000 hours of his life was spent researching and writing the book. The motivation for doing so was because he could see that we were being lied to, not just about the small things but also the big things, and not just about some things but pretty much everything. Furthermore, it quickly became evident that the Truth Movement didn’t have an evidence problem, it had a communication problem. The biggest challenge was therefore how to communicate the truth to others, without alienating them. Feargus has a degree in mathematics from Royal Holloway and a Master’s from TIAS business school in the Netherlands.

Tom welcomes back Tavi Costa, Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital, for an enlightening conversation about the gold industry and commodity space. Costa expresses his views on the current market landscape, suggesting that the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts could signal a structural bear market for the US dollar, with significant consequences for inflation, gold, and emerging market stocks. He also explores the potential labor market weakness and its possible link to an impending recession, emphasizing the significance of investing in industries with compelling growth prospects.

Costa delves into the subject of gold and silver markets, debating the importance of focusing on percentage gains versus supply and demand factors. He points out the long-term underperformance of the mining industry relative to gold due to a dearth of new discoveries, delayed capital flows from larger miners to smaller ones, and the general reluctance to invest in this sector.

Despite these hurdles, Tavi remains hopeful about the future of the mining industry, viewing it as a promising venture rather than a mere gamble. He stress the value of acquiring expertise, focusing on scalability, and keeping abreast of market developments. When it comes to assessing miners, explorers, and developers, Tavi advocates for zeroing in on successful ventures and overlooked assets for potential value creation.

Costa voices his concerns about analysts’ inconsistent forecasts, particularly with respect to gold prices and future earnings, regarding this disparity as a lucrative opportunity for savvy investors. He also delves into the role of royalty companies in the mining industry and their influence on various sectors. Tavi stress the significance of recognizing incentives and their impact on industry dynamics.

Lastly, they explores the substantial decline in mining investment and the repercussions of government funding and Chinese competition in securing mining assets. Tavi expresses enthusiasm for the prospective rewards in the mining sector.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introductions
0:55 – Market Turning Point
4:23 – Weak Dollar Outlook
11:04 – Labor & Job Numbers
15:34 – Inflation & Commodities
22:00 – 2024 P.M. Performance
29:33 – Gold Vs. Miners
35:03 – Investment or Speculation
39:33 – Analyzing Mine Sector
48:36 – Royalty Plays?
51:53 – Shift to Resources
59:06 – Strategic Metals
1:07:28 – Capital Necessities
1:10:16 – Chinese Investment
1:12:36 – Vision & Success
1:14:12 – Wrap Up

Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/tavicosta
X: https://x.com/crescat_capital
Website: https://crescat.net

Talking Points From This Episode

Otavio (“Tavi”) Costa is a Member and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He built Crescat’s macro model that identifies the current stage of the U.S. economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors.

His research is regularly featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, and Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil, and fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil.

Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in Finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.