Palisades Gold Radio

Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context and host of the Oil Ground Up podcast, joins Palisades Gold Radio to dissect the current energy crisis. He argues that while the market has avoided outright shortages in the West, the war has created a “balkanized” global oil market. The primary issue is not just crude supply, but a severe crisis in refining capacity, particularly for middle distillates like diesel and jet fuel. Diesel crack spreads have hit unprecedented levels (near $100-$120 a barrel), driven by a combination of the Iran war, Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, and Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure. This has led to a million to 1.5 million barrels per day loss in diesel supply, with emerging markets like Indonesia feeling the pain of outright shortages first.

Johnston highlights the compounding effect of skyrocketing shipping costs, which have risen tenfold due to the inefficient “dark transit” system in the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on vessels. This has fractured the global market into isolated pockets of oversupply and undersupply, making it expensive to arbitrage regional imbalances. He is skeptical of political fixes, dismissing the Trump-Putin diesel deal as a “drop in the bucket” (roughly 125,000 barrels per day) and warning that a US diesel export ban would be counterproductive, as it would reduce refining incentives and spike global prices. The only durable solutions, he argues, are ending the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Looking ahead, Johnston sees a potential scenario where crude prices fall (even to $60) while diesel remains expensive ($150-$160) due to lingering refining constraints. He notes that the market is still in a deficit of 2-3 million barrels per day, drawing down stockpiles, but believes a resolution to the Iran war could flip crude into oversupply. A key wildcard is China, which could loosen its export quotas and provide critical diesel supply through the winter, as it did in 2022-2023. He also flags that a “Super El Nino” could provide a lucky reprieve by moderating winter demand for heating fuels.

00:00:29 – Introduction: Rory Johnston on energy crisis
00:00:41 – Assessing Middle East supply disruptions
00:01:28 – Impact of high prices on emerging markets
00:02:26 – Shipping rates surge and tanker inefficiency
00:05:20 – Iran attacks on tankers and fleet impact
00:09:56 – Refining capacity crisis and product tightness
00:15:19 – US-Russia diesel deal and export ban debate
00:20:05 – Ukraine refinery attacks and energy truce
00:24:44 – Outlook: product tightness vs crude recovery
00:30:57 – Demand destruction through diesel prices
00:35:36 – Escalation risks and stock drawdowns
00:39:22 – Saudi Arabia’s challenges and Houthi attacks
00:43:03 – Natural gas and LNG market tightness
00:44:46 – Wrap-up and where to follow Rory’s work

Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, host of the Oil Ground Up podcast, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines.

He is a leading voice on oil market analysis, advising institutional investors, global policy makers, and corporate decision makers. His views are regularly quoted in major international media including the Financial Times, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, Reuters, BNN Bloomberg, CBC, and Financial Post, and he frequently appears on numerous market and industry podcasts (e.g., Bloomberg’s Odd Lots, Hidden Forces, etc.).

Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank where he set the bank’s energy and metals price forecasts, advised the bank’s executives and clients, and sat on the bank’s senior credit committee for commodity-exposed sectors.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Bob Moriarty to the show. Bob Moriarty is Author, Founder 321 Gold, & Former Marine Fighter Pilot. The discussion centers on escalating Middle East conflicts, particularly the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and the broader geopolitical brinkmanship involving Iran, Israel, and the United States.

Moriarty argues that current events stem not from grand strategy but from human stupidity, as outlined in classic texts on crowd madness. He contends that the U.S. and Israel are waging a voluntary war that serves only to protect political figures like Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump, with no tangible benefit and enormous risks. Saudi Arabia, he suggests, could unilaterally end the conflict by pursuing peace, but its leadership remains blinded by wealth and hubris.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:27 – Middle East Geopolitics Overview
00:04:42 – Houthis Saudi Conflict History
00:09:20 – Saudi Economic Vulnerability Discussed
00:14:02 – Energy Market Implications Analyzed
00:16:48 – Escalation Risks and Politics
00:28:15 – Emerging Global Fuel Shortages
00:34:00 – Europe Energy Crisis Deepens
00:38:24 – Oil Price Outlook and Manipulation
00:44:33 – Gold Role in Crisis
00:54:15 – Gold Reset Concerns Raised
01:05:55 – Concluding Thoughts

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Bob Moriarty founded 321gold.com with his late wife, Barbara Moriarty, more than 16 years ago. They later added 321energy.com to cover oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, solar, wind, and nuclear energy. Both sites feature articles, editorial opinions, pricing figures, and updates on both sectors’ current events. Previously, Moriarty was a Marine F-4B and O-1 pilot, with more than 832 missions in Vietnam. He holds fourteen international aviation records.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Trader Ferg to the show. Trader Ferg is a Full-time Trader and is the Author of the Trader Ferg Substack. The discussion opens with a vivid illustration of emerging fuel shortages, as Trader Ferg shares images of long queues at his local petrol station in Bali, a symptom of diesel and product tightness spreading across Asia. He argues that governments avoid admitting scarcity, instead running down strategic reserves, but this dynamic sets the stage for a prolonged “big refill” cycle that will keep crude and refined products tight for years. He cautions that markets are complacently expecting a quick resolution, while the reality points to sustained supply constraints.

Trader Ferg highlights the investment opportunity in underappreciated energy equities, favoring high-quality, cash‑generating companies with strong shareholder yields, such as Shell, over direct commodity futures. He extends this thesis to thermal coal, which he sees benefiting from Asia’s energy security pivot and substitution away from expensive LNG, supported by supply disruptions and a lack of new investment. The conversation then shifts to gold and precious metals. Trader Ferg remains a long‑term gold bull given the deteriorating US fiscal position, but he emphasizes the importance of diversifying into platinum and palladium. PGMs offer tighter supply dynamics, concentrated production in South Africa, and resilient demand from hybrid vehicles, making them less vulnerable to government confiscation risks that could threaten gold.

Throughout, Trader Ferg stresses aligning investment vehicles with long‑term theses, seeking cheap valuations with double‑digit shareholder yields, and avoiding obvious political targets. He notes the non‑consensus nature of energy trades and the potential for explosive moves in compressed markets like coal and uranium. The episode concludes with a nod to frontier market opportunities and a reminder to position ahead of policy desperation, as governments may increasingly resort to windfall taxes and capital controls.

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Trader Ferg is a Full-time trader for going on 8+ years now. He has a habit of hanging out in hated corners of the market that are considered uninvestable. He enjoys sharing his research and thoughts about possible trades and markets.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Jeff Phillips to the show. Jeff Phillips is a Private Investor and President of Global Market Development. Jeff Phillips sees the current pullback in precious metals and junior miners as a buying opportunity within a longer-term commodity super cycle driven by underinvestment, supply chain concerns, and inflationary currency debasement. He cautions that short-term timing remains uncertain, so maintaining cash and avoiding overleverage is essential. Phillips focuses on junior exploration and development companies, typically entering at $5 to $40 million market caps, and stresses that management quality and share structure matter more than geology alone. He looks for experienced teams with significant insider ownership and long-term shareholders rather than warrant flippers.

Phillips highlights current tax-loss selling as a seasonal opportunity, noting many resource stocks trade well below highs into late fall and often re-rate into the new year. He encourages investors to study 52-week ranges, ensure companies have sufficient cash, and consider whether they seek short-term trades or multi-year holdings. He also discusses emerging artificial intelligence applications in exploration through Geomorphic AI, which uses data fusion and pattern recognition to identify overlooked mineral targets more quickly.

Overall, Phillips reiterates that disciplined speculation, strong management alignment, and long-term conviction are key to navigating the junior resource space.

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Website: Geomorphic AI https://www.geomorphic.ai/

30+ years in resource capital markets; President of Global Market Development and a strategic private investor who has financed more than 100 mineral-exploration companies. An early financier of Patriot Battery Metals — one of the decade’s defining lithium discoveries — and a long-standing backer of critical-minerals developers across antimony, including US antimony developer Perpetua Resources, and rare earths, including heavy exposure to the major rare-earth developers through the 2009–2011 cycle. Deep experience in public-market financings across the TSXV, London AIM and ASX.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes David Hunter to the show. David Hunter is Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors. Hunter presents a deeply contrarian outlook, arguing that the extreme bearishness in the bond market signals a major bottom in bonds and a top in interest rates, particularly the 10-year Treasury. He believes the current narrative of an inescapable fiscal trap and higher rates is already priced in, and he expects oil prices to roll over into the $60 range, contributing to a downside surprise in inflation as the economy slows.

Despite this, Hunter maintains a near-term bullish stance on equities, forecasting a final, euphoric melt-up that could push the S&P 500 to 10,000 within months. He notes the unusual phenomenon of all-time highs in major indices coinciding with subdued or bearish investor sentiment, which he views as supportive of further gains. However, this rally represents the terminal phase of a 44-year secular bull market.

Hunter predicts this will culminate in a historic global bust, a deflationary crash potentially worse than 2008-2009, driven by extreme global leverage and derivatives. He anticipates an 80% decline in equities, with policymakers initially reluctant to deploy massive stimulus, causing a severe air pocket.

Following this bust, Hunter outlines a subsequent cycle where massive money printing triggers hyperinflation. This environment will fuel an explosive, multi-year bull market in commodities, with gold potentially reaching $20,000 and silver $1,000 by the early 2030s. He sees the precious metals mining sector as exceptionally undervalued, poised for a tremendous run as institutional investment flows in, supported by disciplined management and strong earnings.

Hunter’s long-term thesis concludes with a final systemic collapse in the mid-2030s when hyperinflation renders further money printing impossible.

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David is Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors. He is an investment professional with 25 years of investment management experience and 21 years as a sell-side strategist with robust macroeconomic analysis and portfolio management expertise. His strong macro capabilities, combined with a contrarian philosophy, have allowed him to forecast economic cycles and spot market trends well ahead of the consensus. Intellectually honest, independent thinker comfortable with charting a course apart from the crowd.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Tavi Costa to the show. Tavi Costa is Founder & CEO of Azuria Capital LLC. Costa argues that the U.S. is approaching a fiscal breaking point, emphasizing that current bond yields are unsustainable when measured against record debt levels. He notes that with over a quarter of U.S. debt rolling over in the next twelve months at higher rates, the situation is becoming increasingly asymmetric. He predicts eventual intervention through yield curve control or other mechanisms to suppress yields and weaken the dollar, which would benefit hard assets, mining, and emerging markets.

Costa sees a global sovereign debt dilemma eroding confidence in instruments backed only by military strength rather than tangible assets. He believes this paradigm shift echoes the 1940s but with even higher equity valuations today. Gold’s resilience alongside rising yields signals, in his view, that the market is pricing in an inevitable monetary reset or remonetization of gold. He highlights that gold backing for U.S. Treasuries has fallen from fifty percent to just three percent, implying a massive revaluation would be needed to restore discipline. Geopolitical conflicts are seen as symptoms of overwhelming debt, further fueling the thesis for hard assets.

Costa’s investment strategy focuses on a few concentrated macro themes: mining, Latin America, and energy. He structures his mining portfolio using a three-tier framework combining cash-flowing producers, strategic developers, and bold exploration companies. He finds silver miners particularly attractive due to strong balance sheets and high free cash flow yields. Costa cautions against chasing critical metals purely on narrative, advocating a first-principles focus on business quality. He is launching Azuria Capital with a mining fund embodying this approach, aiming to capitalize on what he views as a generational opportunity in the resource space.

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Otavio (“Tavi”) Costa is the Founder and CEO of Azuria Capital LLC. He invented a macro model that identifies the current stage of the U.S. economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors.

His research is regularly featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, and Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil, and fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil.

Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in Finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Justin Huhn to the show. Justin Huhn is Founder & Publisher of Uranium Insider Pro. Justin Huhn presents a firmly bullish outlook for uranium, describing the current phase as the middle of a long-term secular bull market. The most critical forward indicators, he argues, are the terms in the long-term contracting market, where suppliers are now securing agreements with high floors and often no ceilings, signaling a market where security of supply is beginning to outweigh price sensitivity. He notes that supply has failed to respond adequately to demand, with greenfield projects moving slowly, while a combination of reactor restarts, life extensions, and an unprecedented global build-out of around 80 reactors is underpinning a structural deficit that will persist for five to seven years. A major new demand driver is the entry of hyperscalers and big tech, who are not only signing power purchase agreements but also exploring SMRs, with hundreds of units in planning. Although SMR demand is conservatively modelled to materialize only after 2030, Huhn expects actual construction starts much sooner to trigger early fuel procurement, adding further competition for available pounds.

On the supply side, he dismisses the notion that new mine supply will pressure prices, emphasizing that developers like NexGen are likely to sell responsibly into term markets on similarly bullish terms, meaning extra production will not dent the price trajectory. The spot market has been quiet, but Huhn views current equity weakness as a significant value opportunity, given the deep disconnect between physical market strength and stock prices. He advocates a dynamic trading approach that uses physical market signals, charting, and sentiment to trade around the core long-term bull thesis, which has allowed his portfolio to outperform in this environment.

Ultimately, Huhn forecasts uranium prices well above $200 per pound, supported by inelastic demand and a multi-year supply gap, with the sector poised for a rerating as investors recognise that supply growth is necessary, not bearish, against massive nuclear energy expansion.

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Justin is the Founder and Publisher of the Uranium Insider Pro Newsletter. Through the combination of rigorous fundamental analysis and Justin’s thorough understanding of technical analysis, determinations are made for select companies to be included on Uranium Insider Pro’s “Focus List,” as well as the most opportune times for entry or exit.

Justin is frequently asked to offer his commentary on various media forums, including Crux Investor, Smith Weekly, Palisades Gold Radio, Mining Stock Education, and Mining Stock Daily. He also regularly participates in the post-earnings commentary that is broadcast immediately after industry majors release quarterly earnings.

Justin is devoted to bringing value to those that are taking their first look at the uranium sector. Until July 2020, he distributed a complimentary newsletter as an educational tool to those investors seeking to familiarize themselves with the complexities and opportunities offered by the uranium sector and the uranium shares. Regrettably, the Uranium Insider Pro subscription letter’s subscriber growth and breadth no longer allow him to provide this tool.

The success of Uranium Insider has been gratifying, and the emerging bull market in uranium continues to offer an unusually attractive risk:reward proposition for fellow contrarian investors.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes back CEO of the Feneck Consulting Group, John Feneck to the show. The conversation begins with gold’s recent consolidation, noting it has turned negative year-to-date and is down around 5%. Feneck asserts the bull case remains intact, citing support at 3,900–4,000 and dismissing comparisons to the 2016 rate cycle because the Federal Reserve lacks room for aggressive hikes. He highlights Fed Chair Worsh’s hawkish rhetoric as a temporary headwind but points to improving inflation data and a divided policy landscape. The bond market saw a notable intervention by Scott Besson in August, which briefly buoyed sentiment before the Fed’s Jackson Hole messaging reversed gains.

Geopolitical tensions—wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, plus U.S. election uncertainty—create a favorable backdrop for gold, though markets have become somewhat desensitized. Shifting to mining equities, Feneck describes a hub-and-spoke portfolio strategy, using GDX and GDXJ as core holdings and adding select junior explorers and developers.

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Guest Links:

John Feneck’s upcoming conferences:
Events are invitation only. If interested, please email John at [email protected]

In September 2019 he founded Feneck Consulting Group, helping small- and mid-cap metals and mining companies raise brand awareness and advising high-net-worth advisors on market opportunities and risks. He holds Series 7, Series 63, CMFC and CIMA Level 1 certifications (though he is not a licensed advisor) and focuses on consulting. Based in Scottsdale, AZ, he’s a single dad to an 11-year-old daughter and spends weekends as a professional musician, athlete and traveler.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Florian Grummes to the show. Florian is the Founder and Managing Director of Midas Touch Consulting. The discussion opens with concerns about equity markets at all-time highs, rising Treasury yields, and Middle East energy disruptions. Grummes argues the financial system is walking on a tightrope, but central banks will continue printing money to sustain the “paper Ponzi scheme,” delaying any systemic break. He sees the US midterm elections as a near-term uncertainty, expecting markets to struggle until then, followed by a possible year-end rally. On energy, he believes oil prices are being managed and warns that a proposed US diesel export ban could severely stress Europe, potentially leading to supply chain issues and food shortages, advising listeners to prepare by stocking essentials.

Grummes remains bullish on oil producers, citing a strong uptrend, and foresees an inflationary spiral driven by rising bond yields and money supply expansion. He emphasizes that gold’s fundamental drivers are intact: central bank buying, Asian demand, a shift from bonds to precious metals, and ongoing liquidity injections. Technically, gold is in a correction since January, with support around $4,000; a break below could target $3,500, but he views dips as buying opportunities. He highlights the long-term secular bull market in gold and expects miners to benefit from healthy margins and strong balance sheets, though near-term tax-loss selling may create pressure.

For mining investments, he stresses the importance of management track record, jurisdictional safety, concentrated portfolios, and having an exit strategy. He favors stocks with declining volume on pullbacks, indicating weak hands are being squeezed out. Grummes concludes by inviting listeners to his website and Substack for daily and weekly analysis.

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Florian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, mentor, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 30 years of experience in financial markets. 

Florian is the founder and managing director of his company Midas Touch Consulting, which is specialized in trading & investments as well as consulting, analysis & research with a focus on precious metals, commodities and digital assets.

Via Midas Touch Consulting he is publishing daily and weekly gold, silver, bitcoin & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental/macro and sentiment analysis into one often accurate conclusion about the markets.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Investor, Speculator, Founder & CEO of Rule Investment Media, Rick Rule to the show. Mr. Rule begins by discussing his current focus on preparing for increased market volatility by deeply re-valuing his major holdings, emphasizing the importance of understanding value over price to capitalize on market fluctuations. He notes that while few sectors are truly hated now, geopolitical war zones and lesser-known jurisdictions like Ivory Coast and Kazakhstan present unique opportunities. Addressing gold, Rule expresses a substantially higher outlook over five years, though he warns of short-term headwinds from rising US interest rates. He draws parallels to the 1970s, explaining that high interest rates and a rising gold price can coexist if driven by inflation fears, but also highlights the current environment’s worse government debt ratios and less favorable demographics, balanced by technological advances.

The conversation shifts to gold miners, with Rule bullish on their potential to outperform the metal due to structural underinvestment in exploration, driving significant merger and acquisition activity. He identifies strategic, tactical, and arbitrage-driven acquisitions as key themes for the sector, noting that single-asset producers are prime takeover targets. On energy, Rule remains long-term bullish on oil due to chronic underinvestment in sustaining capital, though he cautions that a near-term resolution to geopolitical conflicts could cause a sharp price drop. He concludes with advice for resource investors: do the necessary fundamental work, maintain patience for multi-year holds, and cultivate tolerance for volatility. Finally, Rule directs listeners to his free resources at ruleinvestmentmedia.com, the Rule Classroom, and his bank, Battle Bank.

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Rick Rule has dedicated his entire adult life to many aspects of natural resources securities investing. Besides the knowledge and experience gained in a long and focused career, he has a global network of contacts in the natural resources and finance sectors.

Mr. Rule is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and is regularly interviewed for radio, television, print, and online media outlets concerning natural resources investment and industry topics. Prominent natural resources-oriented newsletters and advisories frequently quote him. Mr. Rule and his team have expertise in many resource sectors, including agriculture, alternative energy, forestry, oil and gas, mining, and water.