Tom welcomes back Lobo Tiggre, author of the Independent Speculator to discuss critical investment strategies and insights across various economic and commodity markets. Lobo emphasizes the importance of due diligence, skepticism, and rational decision-making in investing, arguing that emotional discipline and thorough research are key to successful investment outcomes.

Tiggre explores several significant economic themes, including Trump’s “Fortress America” agenda and its potential implications for commodity markets. He suggests that the current geopolitical strategy is focused on strengthening domestic manufacturing and critical mineral supply chains, which could have substantial investment opportunities in sectors like copper, uranium, and strategic metals.

Regarding economic predictions, Tiggre maintains a nuanced perspective, acknowledging the complexity of current economic conditions. He discusses the potential for recession while highlighting the role of fiscal dominance and massive government spending in potentially preventing or mitigating economic downturns. He argues that the interplay between inflationary and deflationary pressures could create a stagflationary environment beneficial to certain commodity sectors.

When discussing investment strategies, Tiggre strongly advocates for careful stock selection over broad market bets. He warns against simply following trends or relying solely on spreadsheet analysis, emphasizing that investors must conduct thorough research and understand the specific dynamics of individual companies and sectors.

For investors new to sectors like uranium, he recommends starting with ETFs or carefully selected stocks after comprehensive due diligence. A key takeaway from the discussion is Tiggre’s belief that investors can outperform the market by dedicating time to understanding their investments, maintaining a skeptical attitude, and avoiding emotional decision-making. He suggests that even a modest amount of dedicated research—approximately one hour per week per owned stock—can significantly improve investment outcomes.

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Lobo Tiggre, aka Louis James, is the founder and CEO of Louis James LLC, and the principal analyst and editor of IndependentSpeculator.com. He researched and recommended speculative opportunities in Casey Research publications from 2004 to 2018, writing under the name “Louis James.” While with Casey Research, he learned the ins and outs of resource speculation from the legendary speculator Doug Casey.
Although frequently mistaken for one, Mr. Tiggre is not a professional geologist. However, his long tutelage under world-class geologists, writers, and investors resulted in an exceptional track record.

A fully transparent, documented, and verifiable track record is a central feature of the IndependentSpeculator. Mr. Tiggre will put his own money into the speculations he writes about, so his readers will always know he has “skin in the game” with them.

Tom welcomes back Tavi Costa from Crescat Capital to discuss the emerging bullish cycle in the metals and mining sector. Costa believes we are in the early stages of a long-term commodity cycle, with gold leading the way and other metals poised to follow. The discussion centers on three primary pillars: energy sources, infrastructure, and raw materials. Costa argues that the increasing electricity demand, driven by artificial intelligence and onshoring trends, will create significant opportunities in metals and mining. He emphasizes the critical need for metals to support emerging technological and infrastructure developments, particularly in the United States.

A pivotal moment Costa highlights is the U.S. Department of Defense’s 15% stake in MP Materials, which he sees as a recognition of strategic material vulnerabilities. This investment signals a potential shift in how governments view critical resources and mining infrastructure. Costa also discusses the potential macroeconomic trajectory, suggesting two potential paths: a deflationary shock or an inflationary era followed by a highly efficient, deflationary period driven by AI. He believes we are currently in an inflationary buildup phase that will eventually transition to increased productivity and efficiency.

Regarding currencies, Costa anticipates a long-term decline in the U.S. dollar versus other currencies, driven by significant fiscal and trade deficits. He sees this as part of a broader “domino effect” of macro trends, where acceptance of risk gradually moves through different asset classes and markets. The interview concludes with Costa identifying the exploration and development phase of the mining industry, alongside emerging markets, as potentially the most asymmetric investment opportunities of his career. He encourages investors to pay attention to the interconnected nature of these macro trends and the gradual rotation of capital across different sectors and geographies.

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Disclaimer: The opinions and information shared by Tavi in this discussion are his own, and not necessarily those of Crescat. Any investments discussed may or may not be held by Crescat. Investments carry risk including risk of loss.

Otavio (“Tavi”) Costa is a Member and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He built Crescat’s macro model that identifies the current stage of the U.S. economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors.

His research is regularly featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, and Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil, and fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil.

Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in Finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.

Tom welcomes back the Professor, Vince Lanci to discuss the complex geopolitical and economic landscape. Focusing on the shifting dynamics of global finance, currency, and resource competition. He argues that the United States is facing significant challenges in maintaining its economic dominance, with the dollar likely to weaken due to multiple interconnected factors. Lanci highlights the emerging “Cold War 2.0” between the US and BRICS nations, particularly China and Russia, which are strategically repositioning themselves in global markets. He suggests that China is not necessarily seeking to become the global reserve currency, but rather wants to establish a regional economic influence, potentially using the Yuan as a semi-gold-backed currency.

A key theme is the transformation of supply chains and payment mechanisms. Vince explains that eastern countries are increasingly controlling their resource production, pricing, and trading, gradually diminishing Western financial influence. This shift is evident in markets like gold and natural gas, where Russia and China are creating alternative pricing and trading standards.

Their discussion also explores potential solutions for the US economic challenges, such as the rise of stablecoins. Lanci describes stablecoins as a potential mechanism for the US to finance its debt, essentially creating a new way to sell treasuries and attract investment. He sees this as part of a broader strategy to maintain economic flexibility and attract capital.

Regarding monetary policy, Lanci provides insights into Trump’s approach to influencing the Federal Reserve, characterizing it as a strategic method of creating political pressure and potential blame scenarios. He believes the dollar will inevitably weaken as a result of mounting debt, changing global dynamics, and the need to make US exports more competitive.

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Vince Lanci, a seasoned finance professional, has served as Managing Partner at Echobay Partners LLC since 2008. His expertise spans over three decades in metals trading, option analysis, and technology development.
In recent years, Mr. Lanci’s insights have been sought after by industry legends. He was invited to be a resident expert on precious metals and option analysis for Larry Benedict’s Opportunistic Trader project. In 2017, he co-authored a paper on Energy Volatility with Professor Robert Biolsi at the University of Connecticut.

Prior to his current role, from 2004 to 2008, Mr. Lanci served as Co-Head of Metals & Energy Trading for CiS Options LLC. During this tenure, he managed the long-short and volatility arbitrage portfolios for the parent Limited Partnership fund.

From 1993 to 2003, Mr. Lanci was the proprietor of Berard Capital LLC, where he led a team of option marketmakers. His earlier career included stints at Lehman Bros and Cooper Neff from 1987 to 1993, providing him with a solid foundation in finance.

In 2000, Mr. Lanci co-founded Whentech (originally named Upperhand Technologies LLC) with David Wender. As chief architect of the “Pit-Trader” user interface logic, he played a pivotal role in the company’s inception.

Mr. Lanci’s thought leadership extends beyond his professional engagements. He contributes regularly to Zerohedge, BBG, and RTRS. His expertise has also been showcased at Mondo Visione and NYC Mines & Money conferences. A firm believer in level playing fields for investors, he advocates for transparency and fairness in financial markets.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Martin Armstrong who provides a critical geopolitical analysis of current global tensions. The focus begins on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and potential escalation towards World War III. Armstrong argues that the 50-day deadline imposed by Trump is an unrealistic negotiation tactic that fundamentally misunderstands geopolitical dynamics. Armstrong suggests that Ukraine is on the verge of collapse and that NATO’s interventionist strategies are deliberately provocative.

He criticizes neoconservative influences, particularly figures like Lindsey Graham and John McCain, for consistently pushing for military confrontation without understanding the long-term consequences. He highlights how these interventions have historically failed, citing examples from Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. The discussion emphasizes the economic implications of ongoing tensions, with Armstrong predicting a steep recession lasting until 2028.

He argues that sanctions against Russia have accelerated the formation of BRICS and are driving countries to seek alternative economic arrangements. The movement of gold and capital away from traditional Western financial centers is seen as a significant indicator of these shifts. Armstrong is particularly critical of European leadership, describing them as the “worst crop of world leaders” in history. He points out the economic challenges facing Germany and the broader European Union, including capital controls and increasing governmental restrictions on financial movements.

Regarding potential conflict, Armstrong warns that Putin is unlikely to capitulate and that the current strategies risk escalating into a broader global confrontation. He suggests that the financial capital of the world will likely move to China after 2032, drawing parallels with the historical decline of Athens due to internal polarization and continuous warfare. The interview concludes with a stark warning about the potential for significant geopolitical and economic disruption, with Armstrong emphasizing that the current trajectory benefits no one and risks triggering a catastrophic global conflict.

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Martin Armstrong is the Owner and Researcher for the website Armstrong Economics. He is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed.

At age 13, Armstrong began working at a coin and stamp dealership in Pennsauken, New Jersey. After buying a bag of rare Canadian pennies, he became a millionaire in 1965 at the age of 15. He continued to work on weekends through high school, finding the real-world exciting, for this was the beginning of the collapse of the gold standard. Martin became captivated by this shocking revelation that there were not just booms and busts, but also peaks and valleys that would last centuries.

In Armstrong’s view of the world where boom-bust cycles occur like clockwork every 8.6 years, what matters is his record as a forecaster. He called Russia’s financial collapse in 1998, using a model that also pointed to a peak just before the Japanese stock market crashed in 1989. These days, as the European sovereign-debt crisis roils markets worldwide, he reminds readers of his October 1997 prediction that the creation of the euro “will merely transform currency speculation into bond speculation,” leading to the system’s eventual collapse.

Armstrong progressed from gold coin investments to following commodity prices for precious metals. In 1973, he began publishing commodity market predictions as a hobby, and in 1983 Armstrong began accepting paid subscriptions for a forecast newsletter.

His Website Armstrong Economics offers a unique perspective intended to educate the public and organizations on the global economic and political environment’s underlying trends. Their mission is to research historical cyclical trends.

Tom welcomes back the always interesting Peter Grandich to discuss several critical economic and geopolitical issues facing the United States. The conversation centers on potential tensions between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, with Grandich suggesting that Trump’s attempts to influence monetary policy could have significant market repercussions. Grandich highlights several major concerns, including a looming debt crisis, with national debt potentially reaching $50 trillion and creating unsustainable interest payments. He also emphasizes a brewing retirement crisis, where most Americans are living paycheck to paycheck and unable to save adequately for retirement. Additionally, he warns about an aging crisis, infrastructure challenges, and potential societal tensions related to demographic shifts.

The discussion extensively explores the growing influence of the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), which Grandich sees as a significant geopolitical development. He believes these countries are strategically positioning themselves to challenge US economic dominance, particularly through alternative trading mechanisms and potential new currency arrangements. Regarding investment strategies, Grandich is bullish on precious metals, especially gold, copper, uranium, and silver. He recommends diversification in junior mining stocks while understanding the speculative nature of such investments. His investment philosophy emphasizes long-term thinking and monitoring global financial trends beyond US-centric perspectives.

Grandich is particularly critical of the current administration’s approach to international relations, suggesting that Trump’s aggressive trade tactics and diplomatic strategies are accelerating the United States’ global decline. He argues that the world is increasingly moving away from US-centric economic models, with countries like China playing increasingly pivotal roles in global economic development. The interview concludes with Grandich recommending that investors broaden their information sources, read international financial media, and prepare for potential significant market shifts by understanding emerging global economic trends.

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Peter Grandich entered Wall Street in the mid-1980s with neither formal education nor training. Within three years, he was appointed Head of Investment Strategy for a leading New York Stock Exchange member firm. He would hold positions as Chief Market Strategist, Portfolio Manager for four hedge funds, and a mutual fund that bore his name. His abilities have resulted in hundreds of media interviews, including Good Morning America, Fox News, CNBC, Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Financial Post, Globe and Mail, US News & World Report, New York Times, Business Week, MarketWatch, Business News Network and dozens more. In addition, he has spoken at investment conferences worldwide, edited numerous investment newsletters, and was one of the more sought-after financial commentators.

Grandich has been a member of the National Association of Christian Financial Consultants, The New York Society of Security Analysts, The Society of Quantitative Analysts, and The Markets Technician Association. He is an active supporter of Athletes in Action, the Fellowship of Christian Athletes, Good News International Ministries, and Catholic Athletes For Christ. Through Athletes in Action, Grandich assisted with Bible study and chapel services for the New York Giants and New York Yankees from 2002 to 2016.

His autobiography, Confessions of a Wall Street Whiz Kid, was first published in 2011 and is now on its fourth printing.

Peter Grandich resides in New Jersey with his wife, Mary, and has one daughter, Tara. In 2015, he turned a three-decade dream into a reality by opening a storefront office in the “Norman Rockwell style” Jersey Shore town of Spring Lake. He then extended that vision by opening a satellite office in Millstone Township in 2019.

Tom welcomes back Francis Hunt to discuss the current economic landscape, focusing on the potential collapse of debt markets and the rise of alternative assets like gold, silver, and platinum. He argues that we are witnessing the end of a 40-year bond market cycle, with long-term debt instruments experiencing significant yield increases across multiple countries, including the United States, Japan, and the United Kingdom.

Hunt emphasizes that the traditional safe-haven assets like government bonds are losing their appeal due to capital devaluation and low yields. He suggests that investors are increasingly turning to precious metals as a preservation of capital strategy. Technical analysis of gold, platinum, and silver charts indicates potential breakouts and continued upward momentum, with gold potentially reaching targets around $3,700.

A key discussion point is the unraveling of the Japanese carry trade, where low-cost Japanese funding has been used to invest in higher-yielding assets globally. As Japanese long-term yields rise, this trade becomes less attractive, potentially causing significant financial disruption. Hunt believes this could trigger a broader financial restructuring. The conversation also explores the potential vulnerability of the United States as a global economic hegemon. Hunt argues that the U.S. is not immune to economic challenges and may experience a more dramatic economic downturn due to its higher starting point.

He warns about the potential collapse of pension systems, driven by complex financial instruments like Leveraged Debt Instruments (LDIs) that have created unsustainable financial structures. Ultimately, Hunt predicts a shift towards alternative assets and potentially a universal basic income (UBI) system as traditional financial mechanisms break down. He advises investors to focus on physical precious metals and be cautious of complex financial products and large asset management firms.

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Francis is a trader, first and foremost. Unlike most educators in the trading space, Francis walks the walk and talks the talk, with 30 years of experience trading his personal capital on various markets and instruments. Through this passion for trading and his relentless study of markets and economic theory, he uses the Hunt Volatility Funnel trading methodology, a systemized approach, to answer the critical question: What is the next most profitable trade?

He believes the actual price of an asset is the most accurate reflection of all the factors that influence it. Practical technical analysis, the study of price action over time, is needed to formulate profitable trade ideas. Indeed, with all the market manipulation and high-frequency trading operations currently in play, technical analysis is all that can be relied upon when it comes to formulating future price trends. A trained eye can often spot such manipulative practices, as is the case with HVF traders. Therefore, the HVF methodology is based purely on technical analysis.

Francis is passionate about sharing his knowledge and understanding of markets by utilizing his HVF trading methodology. With entertaining anecdotes and the careful guidance of his students, he has already trained a large community of hundreds of traders and helped them transform from complete newbies to seasoned trading professionals

He genuinely loves sharing his knowledge and strategies with others who are committed to finding freedom through trading. Plus, teaching strengthens his trading abilities while helping to build a vibrant community of successful traders.

Tom welcomes back, David Hunter, a contrarian macro strategist with 52 years of experience. Hunter provides a comprehensive outlook on the current market and economic landscape. He believes the markets are in the final period of a 43-year secular bull market.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:48 – Melt-Up Phase Outlook
00:05:35 – Secular Top, Drivers?
00:07:20 – Mkt. Confidence & Big Money
00:09:44 – Earnings, Housing & Jobs
00:12:28 – Rates & Foreign Buyers
00:15:30 – The Top, Timeframes
00:18:13 – Market Behavior & Debt
00:28:59 – Final Top – Gold & BTC
00:32:30 – Mining Sector Targets
00:36:00 – Global Bust Structure
00:40:12 – Supply Side Economics
00:49:48 – Conflict & Hard Times
00:52:40 – NATO Vs. Putin, Europe
00:55:03 – Fiscal Stimulus Scenario?
00:58:10 – Money Printer is Coming
01:04:32 – Concluding Thoughts

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David is Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors. He is an investment professional with 25 years of investment management experience and 21 years as a sell-side strategist with robust macroeconomic analysis and portfolio management expertise. His strong macro capabilities, combined with a contrarian philosophy, have allowed him to forecast economic cycles and spot market trends well ahead of the consensus. Intellectually honest, independent thinker comfortable with charting a course apart from the crowd.

Tom welcomes back Trader Ferg to discuss his investment strategy focusing on undervalued and overlooked sectors, with particular emphasis on commodities like platinum, gold, and uranium. He highlights the importance of positioning early in sectors with tight supply-demand dynamics and understanding long-term fundamental trends. Regarding platinum, Ferg sees significant potential driven by multiple demand factors, including catalytic converters, industrial applications, jewelry, and investment demand. He notes the metal’s supply deficit and believes the current price movement is just the beginning of a potentially multi-year trend. The primary supply is down 6% year-on-year, with recycling also declining, creating a compelling investment narrative.

Ferg discusses his investment philosophy of balancing risk minimization and regret minimization, typically starting positions at 3% and potentially scaling up to 5% for high-conviction investments. He emphasizes the importance of portfolio management and being willing to tolerate some volatility to capture significant upside. The conversation explores broader macroeconomic trends, particularly focusing on Asian energy demand.

Ferg argues that developing countries, especially in Asia, are at the early stages of increasing energy consumption, which could drive significant demand for commodities like coal and oil. He highlights that 6.5 billion people are seeking to improve their standard of living, which will require substantial energy infrastructure and consumption. On the gold market, Ferg believes central banks and institutional investors are still underallocated, and he sees potential for continued appreciation, especially as Asian countries seek alternatives to US dollar-denominated trade. He suggests that while gold might continue to outperform other commodities, individual commodity sectors will experience periodic strong performance.

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Trader Ferg is a Full-time trader for going on 8+ years now. He has a habit of hanging out in hated corners of the market that are considered uninvestable. He enjoys sharing his research and thoughts about possible trades and markets.

Tom welcomes back Chase Taylor to the show. Chase is a global macro strategist and they discuss the current economic landscape, focusing on several key themes. Chase argues that the economy’s resilience stems from high deficit spending and asset prices, making a recession less probable than in previous decades. He suggests that higher interest rates can be stimulative for the private sector, as they provide significant income for investors and institutions. He notes that while high rates can hurt small businesses, the broader economy remains relatively stable, especially with tech sectors demonstrating low cyclicality.

Regarding fiscal policy, Taylor warns about potential “fiscal dominance” – a scenario where monetary policy becomes subservient to government funding needs. He believes this might occur if the Federal Reserve begins cutting rates inappropriately, even with persistent inflation. The discussion explores potential economic risks, with housing being a critical sector to watch. Taylor sees similarities to the 2008 housing market in terms of home prices versus incomes, but emphasizes that current credit quality and household balance sheets are much stronger.

On trade policy, Taylor is skeptical about reshoring efforts, arguing that blanket tariffs could create more economic complications than benefits. He highlights the complexity of global supply chains and the potential inflationary impacts of aggressive tariff strategies. The labor market remains a key indicator, with Taylor observing a cooling but not collapsing job market. He sees potential job market stress in sectors like home building and healthcare, particularly following recent legislative changes.

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Chase Taylor is a macro trader and the global macro strategist and editor at Pinecone Macro Research. He recently became Head of Research at Bullwark Capital Management. Chase launched PMR in 2018, where he provides unique macro insights and analysis in a weekly and monthly research product.

Chase does not come from Wall Street or business school, but the military. He prides himself on being a self-taught macro thinker and practitioner. Chase started in the Air Force working on B-1 Bombers, but spent most of his career as a geospatial intelligence analyst, working on strategic and tactical intelligence problem sets. He has also worked in acquisitions at a research laboratory focused on rocket propulsion.

Chase combines the analytical techniques he learned in the intelligence community with a unique focus on history and nature to create a distinctive macro framework. He combines technical analysis, fundamental changes, and the power of narratives and reflexivity to uncover asymmetric investments.

Tom welcomes a new guest Michael Green, Chief Strategist at Simplify Asset Management to the show. Michael provides a comprehensive analysis of the current market dynamics, focusing on the profound impact of passive investing. Green argues that the rise of passive investment strategies has fundamentally transformed market structures, creating what he describes as an “everything bubble” driven by algorithmic investment flows.

The key insight is that passive funds, which now represent over 50% of US equity markets, operate without traditional valuation considerations. Unlike active managers who adjust investments based on market valuations, passive funds simply buy or sell based on cash flows, removing critical market filtering mechanisms. This has led to unprecedented market valuations and concentration in large-cap stocks.

Green highlights how regulatory changes, particularly the 2006 Pension Protection Act, have accelerated passive investing by automatically enrolling workers in retirement plans that default to passive index funds. This has created a massive, potentially unstable market ecosystem where investment decisions are increasingly disconnected from fundamental economic principles.

The discussion extends to broader economic implications, including potential market risks, inflation dynamics, and the role of technological disruption in employment. Green suggests that the current market structure resembles a Ponzi scheme, with asset values dependent on continuous inflows rather than intrinsic value. Regarding future market dynamics, Green identifies potential catalysts for market shifts, including employment trends, retirement withdrawals, and changes in monetary policy. He warns that when passive flows eventually reverse, the market could experience significant disruption similar to other algorithmic trading implosions.

The conversation also explores related topics like cryptocurrency, stablecoins, and the importance of rebuilding societal trust through technological innovations. Green’s overarching message is that the current market structure is unsustainable and that rebuilding trust and understanding complex market mechanisms are crucial for future economic stability. Ultimately, Green emphasizes the need for a collective approach to addressing these systemic challenges, encouraging listeners to seek systems that enhance transparency and mutual understanding.

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What is Water Speech: https://youtu.be/DCbGM4mqEVw?si=9_MO4ToBDOSx6DzU

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Michael is Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management. Michael has been noted for his work as a market theoretician and financial media participant. He is a graduate of the University of Pennsylvania and a CFA holder.