Tom Bodrovics, welcomes back Jeff Christian, Managing Partner of CPM Group, for a thought-provoking episode. The conversation begins around the far-reaching implications of tariffs on markets, industries, and economies. Tariffs are not one-size-fits-all, with their impact hinging on both the specific country and metal involved. Jeff expresses his disdain for tariffs, citing their detrimental effects on economic activity and inflation. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 serves as a cautionary tale, illustrating the devastating consequences on imports, exports, and both the US economy and the global marketplace during the Great Depression. The threat of retaliation could trigger a US recession, while gold and silver might experience heightened demand due to market uncertainty. Tariffs involve importers bearing added costs, instigating inflation, complicating international trade, and affecting base metals.

Two potential solutions for government funding – Value Added Tax (VAT) and gold-backed bonds – are examined, yet concerns over regressiveness, economic downturns, and practicality linger. Central banks have turned to gold as a means of securing dollar reserves amid past economic instability under the gold standard. Recent geopolitical developments have prompted some Eastern European countries to stockpile gold for safety against external pressures like Russia. The surge in demand for physical gold within the US is accompanied by a transition from London to New York, giving rise to borrowing and EFP premiums as markets grapple with economic and political uncertainties.

Jeff discusses the problems inherent in all financial system and why those problems would also exist under a gold standard. He argues that the Fed has played an important role in reducing the severity of economic contractions. However, he cautions that the only financial system in history that has not failed is this the current one.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:50 – Tariff Discussion
12:10 – Impacts on Metals?
14:38 – Various Scenarios
19:58 – Inflationary/Recessionary
26:03 – Fast Track U.S. Industry?
28:13 – Effects on Currencies?
31:13 – Recession Outlook?
36:00 – Appalling Statistics
38:00 – Income Tax & Trump
42:07 – A Gold Backed Bond?
45:49 – Fed & Depressions
52:13 – C.B. Gold Reserves
56:39 – CPM Client Concerns?
59:55 – EFP Premiums & Supply
1:07:48 – Reality & Forecast
1:10:00 – Wrap Up

Talking Points From This Episode

Guest Links
Twitter: https://twitter.com/CPMGroupLLC
Website: https://www.cpmgroup.com/
Questions Email: [email protected]
YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/c/CPMGroup/videos

Jeffrey Christian is the Managing Partner of the CPM Group. He is considered one of the most knowledgeable experts on precious metals markets, commodities in general, and financial engineering, using options for hedging and investing purposes. He is the author of Commodities Rising 2006.

Jeffrey Christian has been a prominent analyst and advisor on precious metals and commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, agricultural markets, and economic analysis. The company was founded in 1986, spinning off the Commodities Research Group from Goldman, Sachs & Co and its commodities trading arm, J. Aron & Company.

He has advised many of the world’s largest corporations and institutional investors on managing their commodities price and market exposures and providing advisory services to the World Bank, United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and numerous governments.

In this episode on Palisades Gold Radio, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Jaime Carrasco. Jaime is Senior Portfolio Manager & Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management. They discuss the global economic landscape and the significance of gold in today’s context. Carrasco expresses his belief that Trump’s election and proposed policies could lead to a reset of debt and potential devaluation of US dollars held in treasuries around the world. He emphasizes the importance of understanding history, as previous periods saw significant increases in dividends from gold mining companies during times of monetary instability.

Carrasco encourages investors to consider gold as a hedge against inflation, purchasing power loss, and political instability. He also recommends silver mining companies due to their current undervaluation compared to gold. Central banks are increasingly buying gold as a safe haven asset, and Trump’s actions are aimed at rebuilding America for Americans, possibly necessitating a full reset. The location of US gold reserves and geopolitical issues like China’s policy in Latin America, Europe’s response to immigration, and the US-China-Russia alignment are significant sociological factors affecting the global economy. Despite the current uncertainty, Carrasco advocates for a decentralized world where nations can thrive and encourages investors to consider gold, silver, and Bitcoin as financial lifeboats.

Talking Points From This Episode
0:00 – Introduction
0:42 – Current World State
3:30 – S&P Bond Chart
10:12 – Gold Bonds & Treasury
15:45 – Free Cash Flow Chart
19:23 – Hyper Financial World
26:00 – Gold & Silver
31:02 – Silver Volatility
34:02 – Shelton & Blockchain
36:20 – Resource Sec. Valuations
38:13 – 40-Year Shift?
42:22 – A Financial Reset?
44:52 – Bonds in a Reset
46:22 – PMs & Tariff Risks
49:18 – A Double Edged Sword
51:53 – Trump Implementation
53:30 – European Problems
56:00 – Negotiating Peace?
1:02:09 – Surviving Inflation
1:04:10 – Wrap Up

Guest Links:
Twitter: https://x.com/ijcarrasco
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/carrasco1/
Website: https://harbourfrontwealth.com

Jaime Carrasco is Senior Portfolio Manager & Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management. From 2014-2018 he worked as Director of Wealth Management and Associate Portfolio Manager for ScotiaMcLeod. Before this, he worked for Macquarie Group, CIBC Wood Gundy, BMO Nesbitt Burns, Gordon Capital, and Merrill Lynch.

Jaime is a leading Canadian investment professional with 25 years of experience providing wealth management and investment counsel to affluent families, businesses, and institutions. He has garnered a reputation for questioning and challenging the status quo and exploring the most innovative investment strategies.

Jaime, whose mother tongue is Spanish, also speaks Italian and French. He completed a BA in political science and economics at the University of Toronto in 1988. While a student, he worked for CS Yacht, a company that built luxury sailboats, thus spending his summers as a skipper for the Canadian establishment members. Jaime credits this experience and having survived sailing through Hurricane Bob in 1991. This experience taught him lessons that have become a metaphor for his financial investment strategies.

“Like one’s financial wealth, sailing is not about controlling the wind, but rather about adjusting the sails.”

In this episode of Palisades Gold Radio, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Kevin Wadsworth and Patrick Karim for a discussion on the probably capital rotation event coming soon to commodities generally and the stock market. They explore evidence suggesting gold’s outperformance over key indicators like US money supply, the dollar index, and major indices such as S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and Russell.

Kevin and Patrick highlight that significant shifts occur when sectors underperform gold for extended periods (10-15 years), often leading to substantial drops before recovery. They caution Bitcoin holders about potential underperformance during this rotation, a sector historically correlated with tech stocks.

The conversation delves into the historical performance of SPX and NASDAQ versus gold, noting tech stocks and Bitcoin’s significant drawdowns but eventual recoveries. Yet, these assets often lag behind gold for prolonged periods, resulting in real losses for investors holding them.

The charting duo emphasize the importance of comparing any investment assets to the benchmark of gold, to gauge market shifts. They advocate investing in gold during market confusion and stress understanding that gold is currently in a bull era.

Additionally, they discuss the importance of risk management, patience, waiting for clear trends before entering markets, and avoiding concentration in single investments or chasing bottoms and tops of markets.

Ultimately, Kevin and Patrick stress patience, a long-term perspective, and applying ‘the gold test’ before any investment decision.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
1:20 – Capital Rotation Event
2:07 – Capital Rotation Charts
12:57 – Equities Vs. Gold
14:18 – Bitcoin Correlations
22:00 – Killing Narratives
24:40 – Ratio Analysis & Trends
28:34 – Gold Vs. Everything
32:24 – DXY Vs. CPI Chart
38:48 – A Technical Approach
44:18 – Public Debt Analysis
48:23 – Miners & Speculation
52:04 – Most Commodities?
54:08 – Risks – Tops/Bottoms
57:57 – Technicals & Analysis
1:04:53 – Entry Points & M.A.
1:10:09 – Uranium Miners
1:12:06 – Wrap Up

Guest Links:
Twitter: https://x.com/NorthStarCharts
Website: https://NorthStarBadCharts.com
YouTube: https://youtube.com/c/NorthstarCharts

Kevin Wadsworth is a seasoned chart trader with over 15 years of experience and a strong following on social media. With a background in meteorology spanning over 30 years, he has worked in various professional roles, including military and civilian weather forecasting. Currently serving as a Civil Contingency Advisor, Kevin provides advanced warning and guidance for life-threatening weather events and collaborates with emergency response teams.

His interest in the financial world was sparked by a colleague in the early 2000s, and he became particularly fascinated after the 2008 financial crash. Drawing parallels between weather forecasting and predicting market movements, Kevin emphasizes the importance of gathering evidence from various sources, much like assessing multiple weather models. His approach focuses on presenting clear, unbiased charts based on the weight of evidence, rather than personal bias.

Kevin’s expertise lies in distilling complex information into actionable insights, whether it’s forecasting weather patterns or market trends.

Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/badcharts1
Website: https://NorthStarBadCharts.com
YouTube: https://youtube.com/c/NorthstarCharts

Patrick Karim is a proprietary capital manager and chart trader since 2006. Patrick’s background in commerce, psychology, and an ongoing career in systems engineering has allowed him to evaluate trading scenarios systematically.

His psychology background helps him understand the human factor: overcoming stress, which is mostly responsible for maintaining a successful career.

In this Palisades interview, host Tom welcomes Trader Ferg, a full-time trader and author of the Trader Ferg Substack, discussing major narrative pivots in the energy market, focusing on topics like electric vehicles versus plug-in hybrids, net-zero projections, China’s policy changes on renewable energy subsidies, battery technology shifts from lithium-ion to sodium-ion batteries, platinum group metals, geopolitical impacts like coal’s comeback in Germany, and investment implications.

Ferg also delves into the transformative potential of deep learning AI models, expressing excitement about their game-changing impact on technology and markets. Among these innovations, Ferg points to DeepSeek, an open-source AI model that is disrupting the tech industry and challenging major companies like NVIDIA, Microsoft, Google, and Facebook, potentially leading to significant declines in their valuations.

Ferg also discusses platinum’s unique market dynamics, noting its unpredictable demand and jurisdictional risks, particularly in key producing regions like South Africa. He emphasizes that new platinum supply is expected to remain limited after 2030. Declining production rates are also affecting industries such as oil and uranium. Despite these challenges, Ferg advises investors to maintain patience and position themselves strategically for future demand.

Ferg identifies under-invested sectors, particularly the U.S. oil and gas industry, as opportunities for growth. He argues that while drilling activity will likely increase during Trump’s second term, supply numbers have been overestimated, and demand remains steady but not overly strong. Additionally, Trump’s plans to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve could create further demand. Ferg expresses his bullish outlook on oil plays in the market, despite current low prices.

In conclusion, Ferg’s investment strategy focuses on identifying major narrative shifts, understanding supply decline rates, and positioning investments to capitalize on demand when markets price it appropriately.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
1:00 – Narratives & Pivots
5:30 – Coal & Green Transitions?
10:48 – Tariffs & Chinese EVs
14:46 – China’s A.I. Model
21:04 – Sector Valuations?
25:39 – Platinum Supply
31:48 – Drill Baby Drill!
37:03 – Trump & Inflation Risks
42:00 – Gold, Rates, & Treasuries
46:00 – Gold ETF Holdings
48:43 – Resource Investment Risk
54:00 – Derisking & Hated Sectors
56:56 – Resource Costs & Inflation
59:00 – Wrap Up

Guest Links:
Substack: https://traderferg.substack.com/
X: https://x.com/trader_ferg

Trader Ferg is a Full-time trader for going on 8+ years now. He has a habit of hanging out in hated corners of the market that are considered uninvestable. He enjoys sharing his research and thoughts about possible trades and markets.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Professor Vince Lanci, MBA Finance and Publisher of the Goldfix Substack, for a discussion on polticis and recent global buying patterns particulary in China. Specifically the significant ‘Chinese whale’, Zhang Kai Futures. Despite public purchases, China’s government has also bought gold clandestinely through other less obvious channels. Goldman Sachs updated projections reveal ongoing gold buying by China, causing market rallies and awareness.

Vince explores Exchange for Physicals (EFPs) and premium spreads in bullion banks, discussing tariff anxiety’s potential impact on global physical metal flows. The EFP mechanism links London’s physical market to New York’s financial center, but tariffs may influence production countries and traders’ choices.

Gold prices are expected to reach new all-time highs soon. Vince touches on tariffs’ primary impact on silver in the U.S., as a significant importer compared to its gold production.

Furthermore, they discuss America’s potential need to become a manufacturing economy again and Trump’s plans involving factories, jobs, and exports. The challenge lies in financing this project with China no longer buying U.S. debt. Trump proposes reducing the deficit through energy cost reductions and weakening the dollar through tariffs, but that approach could lead to inflation and deficit issues.

Vince and Tom discuss potential changes in government funding, specifically regarding income taxes versus tariffs. Trump intends to negotiate with other countries using tariffs as leverage for domestic job creation and foreign investment. Vince emphasizes the importance of addressing economic conflicts to prevent escalation into full-blown conflicts.

Timestamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:43 – China’s Gold Whale
12:38 – EFP Premiums & Spread
25:00 – Supply & Net Imports
28:24 – Silver Prices??
34:48 – Manufacturing USA
43:38 – Driving Dollar Lower
47:00 – Tariffs & Income Tax
54:54 – Historic Analogies
58:03 – Economic World War
1:00:47 – Tensions & Risks
1:02:40 – Wrap Up

Talking Points From This Episode

Guest Links:
Website: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/
Twitter: https://x.com/Sorenthek
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincentlanci/
Boobs & Bullion: https://x.com/boobsbullion

Vince Lanci, a seasoned finance professional, has served as Managing Partner at Echobay Partners LLC since 2008. His expertise spans over three decades in metals trading, option analysis, and technology development.

In recent years, Mr. Lanci’s insights have been sought after by industry legends. He was invited to be a resident expert on precious metals and option analysis for Larry Benedict’s Opportunistic Trader project. In 2017, he co-authored a paper on Energy Volatility with Professor Robert Biolsi at the University of Connecticut.

Prior to his current role, from 2004 to 2008, Mr. Lanci served as Co-Head of Metals & Energy Trading for CiS Options LLC. During this tenure, he managed the long-short and volatility arbitrage portfolios for the parent Limited Partnership fund.

From 1993 to 2003, Mr. Lanci was the proprietor of Berard Capital LLC, where he led a team of option marketmakers. His earlier career included stints at Lehman Bros and Cooper Neff from 1987 to 1993, providing him with a solid foundation in finance.

In 2000, Mr. Lanci co-founded Whentech (originally named Upperhand Technologies LLC) with David Wender. As chief architect of the “Pit-Trader” user interface logic, he played a pivotal role in the company’s inception.

Mr. Lanci’s thought leadership extends beyond his professional engagements. He contributes regularly to Zerohedge, BBG, and RTRS. His expertise has also been showcased at Mondo Visione and NYC Mines & Money conferences. A firm believer in level playing fields for investors, he advocates for transparency and fairness in financial markets.

Tom welcomes back Alasdair Macleod, Head of Research at GoldMoney to discuss his insights into the silver market and its relationship with gold prices. He suggests that despite a seemingly undersupplied market, the price disparity between gold and silver does not reflect this reality. Macleod anticipates a significant shift in investor behavior once patience runs thin among those who have already bought into gold but yet to enter the silver market. The role of foreign investors, particularly central banks, in driving gold prices is highlighted. Macleod also emphasizes the importance of understanding the impact of the ongoing credit bubble on financial markets and encourages listeners to consider reducing their exposure to credit.

Alasdair expresses his views on Donald Trump’s impact on gold prices, citing increased foreign demand due to Trump’s status as an inflationist and his executive orders. However, concerns over tariffs and potential economic repercussions remain. Macleod also touches upon historical examples of tariffs and interest rates and their relationship with an economy’s purchasing power. He emphasizes the importance of understanding this connection for investors during the upcoming credit bubble.

Throughout the conversation, Alasdair highlights the importance of considering global economic trends and various factors influencing gold and silver prices. He also discusses the role of speculators versus central banks in driving these markets and the potential for a significant shift once investor sentiment changes.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:39 – Trump & Macro Picture
10:30 – Trump Inflationist
15:26 – Strong Dollar Impact
19:24 – Debt, Yields, & Economy
26:18 – Global Bubbles & Dollar
33:04 – Gold Industry & ETFs
36:47 – Speculators & Price
39:52 – Tariffs & C.B. Buying?
41:49 – Silvers Underperformance
49:05 – Tariffs & Consequences
50:16 – Silver Supply Outcomes?
56:06 – Biggest Bubble & Wrap Up

Talking Points From This Episode

Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacleodFinance
Substack: https://substack.com/@macleodfinance
Website: https://goldmoney.com
Research: https://www.goldmoney.com/research/

Alasdair Macleod is Head of Research for GoldMoney. He is an educator and advocates for sound money thru demystifying finance and economics. His background includes being a stockbroker, banker, and economist.

Alasdair started his career as a stockbroker in 1970 on the London Stock Exchange. Within nine years, he had risen to become senior partner of his firm.

Subsequently, he held positions at the director level in investment management and worked as a mutual fund manager. Mr. Macleod also worked at a bank in Guernsey as an executive director.

For most of his 40 years in the finance industry, he has been demystifying macro-economic events for his investing clients. The accumulation of this experience has convinced him that unsound monetary policies are the most destructive weapon governments use against the common man. Accordingly, his mission is to educate and inform the public in layman’s terms what governments do with money and how to protect themselves from the consequences.

In this episode, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Bob Coleman during Trump’s second term inauguration when markets are closed. Bob discusses significant developments concerning Exchange for Physical Premiums (EFPs) in precious metals markets. The increasing EFP premiums stem from tariff concerns since Trump’s campaign days, causing New York futures selling and London physical buying, creating a spread between the spot price and futures price. Trump’s rhetoric on fair trade and potential tariffs could impact the ‘product of origin’, potentially affecting short positions expecting delivery to exchanges and could lead to major losses.

Bob also touches upon the lack of retail interest in gold and silver markets despite their proximity to all-time highs due to changing consumer demographics, unregulated industry practices, and misleading sales tactics. He further discusses potential implications of tariffs on precious metals markets and the shift towards physical metal becoming a more price-dominant theme.

Additionally, they explore the impact of investor behavior and supply constraints on platinum and potential implications of the U.S. administration’s involvement in cryptocurrencies. The conversation also highlights increasing demand for precious metals during the Democratic administrations due to concerns over spending and taxes, potential effects of tariffs on the financial system and gold market, volatility in the economy, and central banks’ actions as significant themes for 2025, and the possibility of creating stablecoins backed by precious metals.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:38 – Trump, Trade & EFP
5:22 – Tariffs & Origins
10:28 – 50+ Year EFP Chart
17:30 – EFP Premiums & Covid
20:14 – Retail Precious Metals
25:45 – Gold & Silver EFP?
29:15 – Platinum Markets
33:18 – Metals Vs. Meme Coins
37:10 – Crypto Credibility
39:37 – Monetary Restraint
44:55 – 2024 Physical Demand
47:13 – U.S. Tariffs & C.B. Gold
50:07 – Uncertainties & Wrap Up

Talking Points From This Episode

Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/profitsplusid
Website: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/
Presentation: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/blog/deciphering-the-complex-world-of-precious-metal-derivatives-ucits-and-the-shift-from-physical-to-paper-gold-silver

Bob Coleman is a Registered Investment Advisor since 1992. In 2001, he founded Profits Plus Capital Management, LLC (RIA) and Dollars and Sense Growth Fund. Recognizing the necessity for physical metal storage, he founded Idaho Armored Vaults and Gold Silver Vault in 2008. They are a distinguished and respected leader in the precious metals industry specializing in storage, transportation, shipping logistics, and security.

Tom welcomes back Mel Mattison to discuss the economic implications of the new administration under Trump’s second term. He expresses skepticism towards government-released data such as CPI numbers and raises concerns about rising inflation and interest rates due to massive deficit spending and debt refinancing. Mel estimates approximately seven to eight trillion dollars will be issued this year for these purposes, with uncertainty surrounding who will buy all this debt. He suggests real inflation numbers may be higher than reported, potentially leading to significant increases in interest rates. The U.S., with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 120%, faces a major concern regarding unsustainable levels of interest expenses.

Mel shares his concerns about the historical parallels between the current high debt-to-GDP ratio and that of the post-World War II era, when reductions in debt came from a combination of surprise inflation and interest rate manipulations. The need for fiscal sustainability is discussed, with maintaining a 3% deficit to GDP ratio suggested. However, achieving this through cuts alone is considered unrealistic due to the significant role government spending plays in the economy.

The possibility of a debt reset under new Treasury Secretary Scott Besson is explored, with the need for independence from China’s supply chains and essential goods emphasized due to global security competition. The potential for gold and Bitcoin as neutral reserve assets is proposed, along with revaluing gold certificates held by the Federal Reserve and a move towards these assets to lead to significant increases in value.

Mel discusses Bitcoin potentially decoupling from risk assets like QQQ this year due to increasing institutional adoption. Potential consequences of a global debt crisis include a revaluation of currencies through gold or Bitcoin, and economic wartime goals setting the stage for inflationary impulses to return. The need for controlling interest rates and addressing inflation is emphasized, with potential consequences including debt repression, a gold certificate revaluation, and the promotion of stablecoins. Mel predicts a significant crisis leading to market pullbacks and recoveries, while acknowledging the urgency to tackle deficit issues due to their increasing impact on tax receipts and interest expenses.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:44 – Economic Strength
6:20 – U.S. Debt Holders
11:33 – Debt & GDP Extremes
15:20 – DOGE Cuts & Deficits
21:18 – Debt Reset & BRICS
28:08 – Gold Cert. Valuations
31:43 – BTC & Gold Potential
35:53 – Global Debt & Reserves
39:16 – Tariffs Purpose & Trump
42:50 – Inflation & Oil Trends
46:56 – Trump Power Plays
51:34 – Equity Markets Outlook
56:35 – Jeffrey Gundlach
59:13 – 2025 Possibilities
1:01:23 – Wrap Up

Guest Links:
Website: https://www.MelMattison.com
Twitter: https://x.com/MelMattison1
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/melmattison/

Mel Mattison is a writer, investor, and financial services veteran. Leveraging over twenty years’ experience in the realm of high finance, he brings real-world authenticity to his fictional narratives. Mel combines this insider knowledge with a critical eye toward the economic forces that shape all our lives. With a knack for deconstructing jargon and making the complex understandable, he sheds light on the sometimes dark and confusing corners of finance. Mel holds an MBA from Duke University and studied creative writing at Loyola University Chicago. His recent novel, Quoz: A Financial Thriller, delivers an epic ride packed with action, intrigue, and a healthy dose of economic realism.

Tom Bodrovics hosts both Bob Thompson from Raymond James and Larry McDonald, creator of the Bear Traps Report, for a discussion on inflation trends in the G7 economies. They emphasize the unprecedented $16 trillion debt increase since 2008 due to fiscal and monetary responses to crises, which has led to significant inflationary pressures, particularly in energy costs. They argue that the market’s response is putting pressure on long-term bonds and the US currency, potentially requiring a hard asset tie for stability.

They also discuss the implications of a strong US dollar for Trump’s economic goals, with some factions favoring a weaker dollar. A strong dollar negatively affects U.S. manufacturing exports, hurts companies with sales outside the United States, and forces the Fed to buy bonds, potentially leading to inflation and an economy weakening.

Central banks are increasing their gold purchases and shifting away from US treasuries due to sanctions and mistrust in the US government, which could negatively impact the dollar’s strength. Gold stocks have underperformed the S&P 500, but may offer asymmetrical returns as interest rates remain low and inflation normalizes at a higher level.

They discuss historical gold investing regimes and the transition back towards the one where real rates are favorable for gold. They emphasize the importance of recognizing trends, being ahead of the power curve, and investing accordingly. The possibility of the Federal Reserve’s inflation target shifting towards 3% is discussed, which could benefit certain investment portfolios in sectors like industrial, metals, materials, oil, and gas.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:48 – Fed & Inflation
10:18 – Financial Conditions?
13:13 – Misplaced Optimism?
18:13 – Strong Dollar & Trump?
24:56 – C.B. Gold Buying
31:30 – Sectors & Momentum
34:30 – Entry Points & Markets
36:37 – Bull Markets
42:03 – Strong/Weak Bull
42:54 – Energy Demand & Silver
49:03 – Rates & Fed Targets
52:30 – Stocks Vs Commodities
55:17 – Mining Clock Cycle
57:18 – Concluding Thoughts
1:01:13 – Wrap Up

Talking Points From This Episode

Bob Thompson Links:
Twitter: https://x.com/bobthompsonrj
Website: https://www.raymondjames.ca/
Website: https://bobthompson.ca

When Bob Thompson started university, he thought he was headed towards a career in medicine. He graduated from Simon Fraser University with a Bachelor of Science (BSc), but with his family facing financial adversity, achieving financial security became first an interest and then a passion. Bob is now a Certified Investment Manager and Accredited Investment Fiduciary professional with more than 20 years of experience in the financial services industry.

Over the course of his career, Bob has established himself as a respected portfolio manager and one of Canada’s leading authorities on customized investments. With an in-depth knowledge and scientific approach to financial markets, Bob and his team help institutions and select clients to meet their specialized financial goals.

He has won numerous awards for portfolio management, and has established himself as a sought after media resource and industry speaker. He is the author of Stock Market Superstars: Secrets of Canada’s Top Stock Pickers, a “must-read” for both investors and portfolio managers. His perspective and insights into markets have been featured in Maclean’s, the Globe and Mail and the Financial Post, and he is a popular guest on Bloomberg Canada, Business News Network and CBC News, among others. Bob is also a frequent guest speaker at international investment conferences on portfolio strategy and in specialized investments.

Bob is actively involved with the community as a member of Canada Company: an organization committed to developing and supporting initiatives that help our men and women of the Canadian Armed Forces. He has also been a licensed pilot since the age of 16, and notes flying as one of his passions in life.

Larry McDonald Links:
Website: http://thebeartrapsreport.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/convertbond
Amazon: https://tinyurl.com/2capfzt9

Larry McDonald is a New York Times bestselling author, CNBC contributor, and Political Risk Expert. He is also the creator of The Bear Traps Report, a weekly independent Macro Research Platform focusing on global political and systemic risk with actionable trade ideas.

Thought-provoking Larry McDonald presents his captivating views on the Trump Administration, U.S. Financial Crisis, European Sovereign Debt, and China’s Economic Meltdown – spiced with actionable risk indicators, risk management lessons, and sprinkled with humor.

In 2016, Larry McDonald joined ACG Analytics in Washington D.C., as a partner with a unique skill set, as one of today’s leading political policy risk consultants and strategists. From 2011 – 2016, he was Managing Director and Head of U.S. Macro Strategy at Society Generale.

In 2010 he founded an investment research firm which publishes the The Bear Traps Report, focused on Political and Systemic Risk with actionable trade ideas. Larry makes weekly appearances on CNBC as a contributor focused on political and economic risk and opportunities.

In late 2006, as Vice President at Lehman Brothers, he led his team into betting against the subprime mortgage market, profiting the firm over $2 billion before its demise. In 2009, he wrote the international bestseller A Colossal Failure of Common Sense, The Inside Story of The Collapse of Lehman Brothers – translated into 12 languages, selling over 400,000 copies.

Prior to working at Lehman, he was the co-founder of Convertbond.com, a website that provided convertible securities information with news, valuation, terms and analysis tools for convertible bonds, convertible preferred stocks, and other convertible securities. Convertbond was acquired by Morgan Stanley in 1999.

Larry McDonald’s proprietary risk indicators and risk management lessons are designed for Family Offices, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Hedge-Funds, and any investment group working to avoid the dangerous pitfalls in the post-Lehman financial markets.

McDonald was featured in the Academy Award winning documentary: Inside Job, and also featured in National Geographic’s award winning documentary: The 2000’s. He is a regular contributor on Bloomberg TV and Radio, Forbes, CNBC and Fox Business.

Larry has delivered over 125 keynote speeches worldwide. He details the complexities of the political policy implications of the Trump Administration and their relationship with Congress. Larry also adds the Lehman factor to his speeches, ‘why it was allowed to fail’, and above all – valuable risk indicators which help investors avoid the aftershocks that continue to rock the global economy until today. His presentations are thought-provoking and captivating.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes a new guest Laurent Lequeu to the show. Laurent is an indpendent financial consultant and publisher of the Macro Butler Substack. Togther they delve into macroeconomic themes for the year ahead, focusing primarily on the business cycle and its impact on the US economy. The U.S., currently experiencing an inflationary boom due to low interest rates and increased government spending, is expected to face changes with the incoming presidency of Trump, particularly in terms of tariffs which could shift the economy from a boom phase to possibly an inflationary bust.

Using ratios such as S&P to oil, gold to treasuries, and S&P to gold, they evaluate the current economic status in the U.S. and globally. However, potential tariffs could lead to higher costs for U.S. corporations and lower consumer confidence, impacting equity markets and the overall economy.

Despite being in a potentially stagflationary environment by 2022, the US may face an inflationary bust in 2025, with economic trends like unemployment, manufacturing, and inflationary numbers having global implications. Geopolitical events such as U.S.-Russia relations, tensions in the Middle East, and potential war in Asia could also surprise many.

Laurent suggests investing in equities and gold with a significant portion allocated to physical gold during uncertain economic conditions, while managing cash through short-term investment-grade US dollars bonds. He predicts higher treasury yields this year and suggested looking at commodities’ performance relative to gold for potential re-ratings.

Laurent expresses doubts about Bitcoin’s utility for preserving wealth and encouraged risk management and minimizing drawdowns for investors in the coming years. They also touch upon China’s economic situation, the U.S. remaining the strongest major economy due to energy independence and relative political stability. He suggests investing in sectors like oil and gas, aerospace and defense, and perhaps Canadian gold miners should the regulatory environment improve.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:39 – Different Perspective
2:28 – U.S. Business Cycle
5:30 – Tariff Proposals
7:22 – Stagflation & Trends
10:28 – Conflicts & Risks
14:33 – Powell & Trump
18:34 – Fed & Liquidity
19:40 – Global Econ. Outlook
22:44 – Which Assets When
24:52 – Gold Equities?
29:00 – Gold & Currencies
31:44 – Golden Ratios?
33:30 – Uranium & Energy?
36:56 – Bitcoin/Gold Ratio
40:16 – Wrap Up

Talking Points From This Episode

Guest Links:
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Laurent Lequeu, an independent financial consultant based in Singapore, specializes in managing wealth for High-Net-Worth Individuals. With a career spanning West and East, Laurent analyzes the world through the lens of the business cycle and its impact on asset class performance in a multi polar world. He also shares his insights through The Macro Butler, a global macro newsletter launched in January 2024.