Tom Bodrovics once again engages in an interesting conversation with Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, former Fed Insider, and author of the book “Fed Up.”

The conversation focuses on the ongoing recession that likely began in Q1 2024. Danielle highlights key data points, such as job losses starting in Q2 2024, which confirm the recession’s onset. Despite this clarity, official channels are reluctant to acknowledge the recession due to political considerations.

Danielle emphasizes the severe impact of student loan forbearance and credit constraints on US households, noting that rising defaults will further strain consumer spending. This situation is compounded by a lack of clear policies to replace past stimulus measures, leaving the economy vulnerable.

Danielle shifts into the commercial real estate sector, with banks facing growing pressure to recognize losses. She critiques the Federal Reserve for ignoring critical data, such as shelter inflation and job losses, in favor of focusing on tariffs’ impact on goods prices. This stance, she argues, is politically motivated and disregards the Fed’s own historical lessons.

Investors are advised to prioritize safety over riskier assets, given the high returns on cash and the uncertain economic outlook. Danielle concludes by urging empathy and support for communities navigating these challenging times, emphasizing the importance of looking out for one another during economic hardship.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
1:10 – Recession Recognition?
6:05 – Recession & Neg. GDP
9:06 – Politics & Power Games
11:28 – Democrats & Leadership
14:16 – Global Recession Outlook
16:10 – Student Loan Problems
20:10 – Com. Real Estate Bubble
23:48 – Banks & Neg. Home Values
26:38 – Q.E. Tariffs & Inflation
30:30 – Wages, Housing, & Retail
36:30 – Powell & Coming Shocks
40:59 – Fed Ignoring The Data
42:05 – Safe Investor Plays?
47:10 – Concluding Thoughts
48:10 – Wrap Up

Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/DiMartinoBooth
Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/
Website: https://quillintelligence.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI

Danielle DiMartino Booth is CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, a research and analytics firm.

DiMartino Booth set out to launch a Research Revolution, redefining how market intelligence is conceived and delivered, with the goal of not only guiding portfolio managers but promoting financial literacy. To build QI, she brought together a core team of investing veterans in analyzing the trends and providing critical analysis of what drives the markets.

Since its inception, commentary and data from DiMartino Booth’s The Daily Feather have appeared in other financial sources such as Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox Business, Institutional Investor, Yahoo Finance, The Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TD Ameritrade, TheStreet.com, and more.

A global thought leader on monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded Quill Intelligence in 2018. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a full-time columnist for Bloomberg View, a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets.

Before Quill, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, serving as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy.

DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, where she worked in the fixed income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.

Ronnie Stöferle, researcher and fund manager at Incrementum and author of the In Gold We Trust report, emphasizes that gold remains a critical asset as its role evolves alongside shifting global dynamics. Over nearly two decades, Stöferle has observed significant changes in how gold is perceived and demanded, particularly driven by emerging markets like Saudi Arabia, India, China, and Turkey. These regions now account for the majority of physical gold demand, both from central banks and private investors, underscoring a growing recognition of gold’s value as a safe haven and store of wealth.

Stöferle highlights that while gold is often seen as low volatility, it is currently in the “public participation phase” of its bull market cycle. This phase is characterized by increased media attention, higher price forecasts, and broader acceptance into investment portfolios. Despite gold’s recent rise to around $3,300 per ounce, Stoferle maintains a bullish outlook, projecting a long-term target of $4,800 by the end of the decade. He attributes this confidence to underappreciated demand from emerging markets and growing skepticism toward traditional financial systems.

The discussion also delves into the distinction between “safe haven gold” (physical gold stored securely) and “performance gold” (silver mining stocks and commodities). Stöferle suggests that while physical gold serves as a defensive hedge, performance gold offers higher potential returns. However, he cautions investors to actively time their exposure to these assets due to their volatility.

Additionally, Stöferle addresses the role of Bitcoin alongside gold, viewing it as a complementary asset within a broader portfolio diversification strategy. He notes that while Bitcoin faces skepticism from traditional financial institutions, its adoption is steadily gaining traction, particularly among younger investors.

Timestamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:50 – Gold and Global Change
2:55 – Golds Performance
7:20 – Demand West Vs. East
12:48 – C.B. Gold Demand
15:57 – Int. Rates & Bond Mkts.
18:55 – Trump & Weaker Dollar
23:45 – New Gold Theory
27:54 – ETF Flows & Public Demand
30:48 – Silver’s Potential?
34:34 – Miner’s & Fundamentals
37:53 – Metals & Bitcoin’s Role?
44:27 – Tether & Treasuries
45:57 – Wrap Up & Final Thoughts

Guest Links:
In Gold we Trust 2025 – Full version:
https://ingoldwetrust.report/download/46285/?lang=en
In Gold we Trust 2025 – Compact version:
https://ingoldwetrust.report/download/46286/?lang=en
Video with all highlights of the report:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vM4_NDZL9mA&t=2s

Slidedeck Key Takeaways of IGWT25:
https://ingoldwetrust.report/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Presentation-Press-Conference-In-Gold-We-Trust-report-2025-english.pdf

Link to Incrementum’s Monthly Gold Compass:
https://ingoldwetrust.report/monthly-gold-compass/?lang=en

Subscription Link:
https://ingoldwetrust.report/subscribe/?lang=en

Twitter:
https://x.com/@IGWTreport
https://x.com/@RonStoeferle

Webpage IGWT-report: https://ingoldwetrust.report/?lang=en
Webpage Incrementum: https://www.incrementum.li/en/

Ronnald Stöferle is fund manager and managing partner of Incrementum AG. He studied Business Administration and Finance in the USA and at the Vienna University of Economics and Business Administration, and also gained work experience at the trading desk of a bank during his studies. Upon graduation he joined the Research department of Erste Group, where he published his first “In Gold We Trust” report in 2007. Over the years, the Gold Report has proceeded to become one of the benchmark publications on gold, money, and inflation. Since 2013 he has held the position as reader at scholarium in Vienna, and he also speaks at Wiener Börse Akademie. In 2014, he co-authored the book “Austrian School for Investors” and in 2019 “Die Nullzinsfalle” (The Zero Interest Rate Trap). He is also a member of the board of Tudor Gold, a Canadian exploration company with projects in the legendary Golden Triangle, British Columbia, and an advisor to VON GREYERZ, a global leader in asset preservation in the form of physical gold stored outside the banking system. Ronnie is married and proud father of three daughters. He likes to spend his spare time with his family, watching and playing football, running, and at classical concerts.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Tony Greer, trader, editor of The Morning Navigator , and co-founder of the MacroDirt podcast, to discuss the current state of global markets. The conversation begins with an overview of the chaotic economic landscape, including regime change dynamics, inflationary pressures, and market volatility across sectors like bonds, gold, oil, and Bitcoin.

Tony highlights the breakdown of traditional market correlations, making it difficult to predict trends. He emphasizes gold as a key store of value, noting central bank buying but expressing caution about its current highs and potential vulnerabilities if buyers step back. Gold miners, meanwhile, are performing well, though Tony questions whether larger investors will shift allocations into them.

The discussion turns to bond markets, particularly the Japanese situation, where yields have spiked, raising concerns about central bank intervention. Tony suggests that yields may continue to rise before any potential stabilization. He also touches on inflation, noting that while official numbers appear tame, everyday costs remain high, and the impact of tariffs could linger.

Oil prices are surprisingly stable despite geopolitical tensions, with plenty of supply keeping prices in check. Tony speculates that energy stocks could rebound if oil prices stabilize but remains cautious about their profitability at current levels.

The interview also covers the broader economic picture, including the risks of a U.S. recession and the impact of Trump’s trade policies. Tony expresses skepticism about chasing recession narratives, instead focusing on market trends and central bank behavior. He concludes by reiterating the importance of watching stores of value like gold and Bitcoin, given the ongoing themes of currency debasement and geopolitical uncertainty.

Timestamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:43 – Interesting Times
1:42 – Politics & Correlations
3:44 – C.B. & High Gold Prices
12:05 – Timeframes & Signals
16:46 – Capital Rotation Miners
19:44 – Global Debt Markets
22:57 – Volatility & Confusion
25:16 – C.B. Coordination & YCC
27:00 – Inflation Threats?
28:41 – Oil Price Drivers
33:18 – Recession Risks?
35:25 – Tariff Ramifications
37:14 – Copper?
38:10 – Trump’s Administration
40:40 – 2025 What to Watch
43:58 – U.S. Debt Overhang?
45:21 – Wrap Up

Guest Links:
Substack: https://tgmacro.substack.com/
Twitter: https://x.com/tgmacro
Website: https://tgmacro.com/
E-Mail: [email protected]
Macro Dirt Podcast: https://www.google.com/search?q=macro+dirt+podcast

After graduating from Cornell University in 1990 Tony followed in his father’s footsteps to a Wall Street trading operation. He quickly learned his career path would be vastly different. He says, “I would not be sitting in the same seat on the same trading desk managing the same risk for the same firm for over 30 years.”

We have clearly entered a new era in financial markets.

He began in the treasury department of Sumitomo Bank on the 107th floor of the World Trade Center downtown Manhattan. Tony was an FX trading assistant while the Quantum Fund was breaking the Bank of England in 1992.

In 1993 he joined Union Bank of Switzerland as an FX and commodities trader, spending half a year as a Vice President in their Zurich treasury department. Then returned to New York City early in 1995 to join J. Aron & Company, the privately held commodity trading arm of Goldman Sachs.

He managed risk for the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index, in precious and base metals trading, and futures and options trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

He started his first venture in 2000 – Machine Trading which happened right before the tech bubble burst. That decision was his first excruciating life lesson in market timing. It turned out to be an extremely valuable learning experience.

He believes there is a massive opportunity with both the unprecedented situation in global markets and in the way financial news is consumed. In 2016, he started TG Macro, LLC.

Tom Bodrovics introduces Chris Whalen, author of Inflated: Money, Debt, and the American Dream, which has been re-released in a second edition with significant updates. The conversation focuses on the current state of markets, the impact of President Trump’s tariff policies, and the challenges posed by the federal debt and inflation.

Chris explains that he removed 20,000 words from his original book to make space for a new chapter analyzing the Federal Reserve’s management of the money supply under Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen, and Jerome Powell. He highlights how the U.S. housing market has become heavily government-supported, leading to increased volatility and rising costs for consumers.

Discussing inflation, Chris notes that it is driven by the inability of governments to generate sufficient income to meet their people’s needs, as seen in countries like Argentina. He argues that borrowing from future income through debt creates distortions, particularly in housing markets, where prices have surged due to low interest rates and government intervention. He also critiques the dysfunctionality of Congress, which he believes is unable to pass budgets or manage spending effectively.

Chris emphasizes the importance of gold as a hedge against inflation and expresses skepticism about stablecoins and cryptocurrencies, calling them speculative vehicles rather than reliable alternatives to fiat currency. He suggests that the U.S. dollar’s dominance in global markets contributes to inflationary pressures, as other countries benefit from using dollars without bearing the associated costs.

The discussion concludes with Chris offering an optimistic outlook, noting that while challenges remain, opportunities exist for investors to navigate inflation through real estate and gold. He encourages listeners to manage investments with a long-term perspective, considering the erosive effects of even low levels of inflation over time.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
1:02 – His Revised Book
3:08 – Tariffs & Debt Distortions
7:12 – Reserve Currency & Inflation
11:03 – Debt Markets & Fed/Banks
17:32 – National Debt & Spending
21:18 – DOGE Cuts & Old Systems
30:17 – Trump’s Strategy?
34:04 – Gold During Nixon Era
39:08 – Book & US Administrations
44:13 – MMT Era & Cryptocurrency?
50:21 – Silver Supply & 1800s
52:06 – Stablecoin Backing
55:02 – Concluding Thoughts
56:33 – Wrap Up

Guest Links:
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/
X: https://x.com/rcwhalen
Books (Amazon): https://tinyurl.com/mv3wctcr
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rcwhalen/

Richard Christopher Whalen is an investment banker and author based in New York. He serves as Chairman of Whalen Global Advisors LLC, focusing on banking, mortgage finance, and fintech sectors. Christopher is a contributing editor at National Mortgage News and a general securities principal and member of FINRA.

From 2014 to 2017, he was the Senior Managing Director and Head of Research at Kroll Bond Rating Agency, leading the Financial Institutions and Corporate Ratings Groups. Previously, he was a principal at Institutional Risk Analytics from 2003 to 2013.

Over three decades, Chris has worked as an author, financial professional, and journalist in Washington, New York, and London. After graduating, he served under Rep. Jack Kemp (R-NY) at the House Republican Conference Committee. In 1993, he was the first journalist to report on secret FOMC minutes concealed by Alan Greenspan. His career included roles at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Bear Stearns & Co., Prudential Securities, Tangent Capital, and Carrington Mortgage Holdings.

Christopher holds a B.A. in History from Villanova University. He is the author of three books: “Ford Men: From Inspiration to Enterprise” (2017), published by Laissez Faire Books; “Inflated: How Money and Debt Built the American Dream” (2010) by John Wiley & Sons; and co-author of “Financial Stability: Fraud, Confidence & the Wealth of Nations,” also with Wiley.

He served on FINRA’s Economic Advisory Committee from 2011 to 2023 and was an advisor on Season 5 of SHOWTIME’s “Billions.” Additionally, he was a fellow at Indiana State University (2008-2014), a member of Villanova School of Business’ Finance Department Advisory Council (2013-2016), and a board member of the Global Interdependence Center (2017-2019).

Christopher edits The Institutional Risk Analyst and contributes to other publications and forums. He has testified before Congress, the SEC, and FDIC. A regular media commentator on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox News, Chris is active on social media under “rcwhalen.” He is also a member of The Mortgage Bankers Association and The Lotos Club of New York.

David Skarica discusses his book “Mega Returns: Profit from Maximum Pessimism,” highlighting key themes such as the end of asset price inflation driven by excessive debt and government spending. The conversation begins with an exploration of how COVID-19 and the 2008 financial crisis fueled a period of unprecedented debt, leading to inflated asset prices across sectors.

Skarica emphasized the dangers of governments overspending during COVID, particularly in the U.S., where interest payments now surpass defense budgets. A concerning sign of fiscal strain. He warned that rising debt levels globally, especially in Japan and emerging markets like Canada and Australia, could trigger a debt crisis, potentially leading to hyperinflation.

Investment strategies were a focal point, with Skarica advocating for precious metals such as gold, silver, platinum, and palladium as hedges against inflation. He also suggests specific ETFs for corporate bonds and options trading as actionable strategies. Additionally, he highlighs opportunities in emerging markets, particularly India’s growth potential and Argentina as a turnaround play.

Green energy and technology are discussed with cautious optimism. While skeptical of some trends, Skarica identifies opportunities in green energy companies and rare earth metals. He remains cautious about cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, noting their volatility but acknowledging their role as a hedge against dollar devaluation.

Finally, Skarica underscores the importance of monitoring bond markets for signs of economic stress, particularly rising yields, which could indicate broader financial instability. His insights provide a comprehensive view of current market dynamics and actionable strategies for investors navigating a complex financial landscape.

Timestamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:40 – Profit From Pessimism
4:28 – Timing the Debt Mkts.
8:52 – Canada & Australia
11:40 – Global Bail Outs?
14:44 – Revaluing Gold Res.
19:23 – Corporate Debt Concerns
25:01 – Trade Ideas & Theories
27:28 – Opportunity Still in PMs
32:52 – Platinum Metals?
35:54 – Commodity Prices
40:37 – Energy & Agriculture
43:52 – Oil Company Risks
47:32 – Emerging Markets?
49:55 – Argentina?
52:01 – New Technology
55:05 – Bitcoin & Ethereum
57:24 – G. Energy & Rare Earths
1:01:08 – New Book Details
1:02:16 – Wrap Up

Guest Links:
Twitter: https://x.com/DavidSkarica
YouTube: https://youtube.com/@profitpess
Website: https://profitfrompessimism.com

David Skarica had an interest in financial markets at an early age. At the age of 16, he read the small booklet “The Plague of the Black Debt”, by James Dale Davidson, which was given to him by his uncle.

David was always a sports stat nut, loving football, hockey and baseball stats, which lead to David becoming intrigued with economics and markets. David is such an avid Football and Las Vegas Raiders fan — his principal in grammar school was Bernie Custis, who was the late Raiders owner Al Davis’ roommate at Syracuse University, and the first ever African American quarterback in college and pro football history — that he also runs his own football vlog, Raiders Greats, which discusses great Raiders player of the past. He also is a soccer fan who supports Leeds Utd., as his father was born in Leeds, England.

In 1996, at the age of 18, David became the youngest person on record (that he knows of anyhow) to obtain the Canadian Securities Course (CSC) license to trade investment securities.

In the late 1990s, David felt that the market was becoming another epic bubble similar to the bubble of the 1920s, so he decided at the tender age of 20 to write his first book, Stock Market Panic!, which was published in 1998. Over the next decade, gold soared from $250 an ounce to nearly $1900, while the S&P 500 lost value.

In the same year that this book was published, he decided to start his newsletter, Addicted to Profits. The newsletter’s name was a spin on Robert Palmer’s famed song Addicted to Love. The irony was Robert Palmer recorded this song in the Bahamas ay the famous Compass Point Recording Studio, and David himself would end up moving to the Bahamas in 2005 (another Irony about David moving to the Bahamas is that his mentor Sir John Templeton also resided there).

Tom welcomes back Lyn Alden, Founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, to the show to discuss the intricacies of trade deficits, the role of the US dollar as a global reserve currency, and the broader economic implications for the United States. Lyn explains that a trade deficit occurs when a country imports more than it exports, and while some countries experience this cyclically, others, like India, have managed structural deficits by investing in long-term growth rather than overconsumption. The US, however, faces a unique challenge: its trade deficit is deeply tied to its status as the world’s reserve currency, which creates an excess demand for dollars and makes it difficult to manufacture competitively.

Lyn highlights that the dollar’s strength perpetuates this cycle, making imports expensive and exports cheaper, while also forcing the US to rely on foreign investment to fund its deficits. This dynamic has contributed to deindustrialization and a shift in economic power globally. She contrasts this with historical examples like the UK during the Bretton Woods era, where a similar situation led to stagnation before the rise of new powers like the US.

The discussion shifts to fiscal dominance, where large government deficits constrain monetary policy, making central banks more reliant on fiscal authorities. Lyn notes that the Fed is increasingly limited in its ability to control inflation due to these fiscal pressures. She also addresses Trump’s tariff policies, arguing they harm domestic industries and shift costs onto American consumers while failing to address the root causes of trade imbalances.

Inflationary pressures from tariffs are uneven, with specific sectors facing price increases while others experience disinflation. Lyn emphasizes that sustained inflation requires broader money supply growth, which has not been a significant factor in recent years. She concludes by exploring alternatives like gold and Bitcoin as potential reserve assets, suggesting that diversification into neutral reserves could help mitigate risks but remains largely theoretical at this stage.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:40 – Trade Deficits & Tariffs
5:02 – Sustainable Economics?
10:33 – Dollar & Liquidity
14:02 – Fiat Currency ‘Growth’
15:49 – Fed & Fiat Deflation?
21:40 – Tariff Model & Truth
25:05 – Gold, Bitcoin, & Dollar
28:30 – Trade, Tariffs, & Conflict
33:04 – Bond Market Impacts
36:36 – Taxes & Gradual Tariffs
39:05 – DOGE & Reducing Deficits
42:00 – Fiscal Dominance
46:23 – Devaluing/Lower Dollar?
49:43 – U.S. Gov’t Buying Gold?
52:20 – Bitcoin Reserve?
56:09 – Tariffs & Inflation Effects
59:40 – Watch for Fiscal Issues
1:00:50 – Wrap Up

Guest Links:
Twitter: https://x.com/LynAldenContact
Website: https://www.lynalden.com/

Lyn Alden is editor and publisher of LynAlden.com, where she has both a subscription and a free financial newsletter. She says, “Her background lies at the intersection of engineering and finance.” Her site provides investment research and strategy, covering stocks, precious metals, international equities, and alternative investments, with a specialization in asset allocation. Whether you’re new to investing or experienced, there’s a lot there for you.

Lyn has a bachelor’s degree in electrical engineering and a master’s degree in engineering management, focusing on engineering economics and financial modeling. She oversees the finances and day-to-day operations of an engineering facility.

She has been performing investment research for over fifteen years in various public and private capacities. Her work has been editorially featured or cited on Business Insider, Marketwatch, Time’s Money Magazine, The Daily Telegraph, The Philadelphia Inquirer, The Street, CNBC, US News and World Report, Kiplinger, and The Huffington Post. She has also appeared on Real Vision, The Investor’s Podcast Network, The Rebel Capitalist Show, The Market Huddle, and many other podcasts. She is also a regular contributor to Seeking Alpha, FEDweek, and Elliot Wave Trader.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Brett Heath, CEO of Metalla Royalty and Streaming, to discuss the current state of the gold industry. Brett highlights a strong bid under gold, driven by macroeconomic factors such as shifting perceptions around US assets and central bank diversification into gold. He notes that emerging market economies are reducing their exposure to US treasuries and increasing gold reserves, creating sustained demand.

Brett emphasizes the undervalued nature of gold equities compared to historical standards, suggesting they are attractively priced for investors seeking stability and cash flow. He points to increased M&A activity as companies scramble to acquire high-quality assets amid a scarcity of scalable projects. Brett also discusses the speculative nature of silver, which is currently underperforming relative to gold, but sees potential for a rebound if sentiment shifts.

Overall, Brett paints a bullish picture for gold, with significant long-term appreciation expected despite short-term volatility. He urges investors to monitor trends in asset valuation and central bank activity, signaling that now may be an opportune time to invest in high-quality gold assets.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:40 – Global Macro Picture
5:20 – C. Banks East Vs West
6:27 – Who Buys Next?
8:26 – Timeline & Mkt. Direction
10:25 – GDX & GDX.J Outflows
12:38 – Gold, Fed & Catalysts
16:05 – Inflation Drivers
19:08 – U.S. Debt & Servicing
21:42 – Industry Sentiment
25:28 – Hurdles for Gold?
28:53 – Chaotic M&A Coming?
30:50 – Perception & Valuations
36:03 – Silver Ratio Thoughts
39:13 – Violent Reversal Silver
40:15 – Wrap Up

Guest Links:
Website: https://www.metallaroyalty.com/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/metalla-royalty-and-streaming-ltd.
Twitter: https://x.com/metallaroyalty

Brett Heath is Chief Executive Officer and Director of Metalla Royalty & Streaming. Mr. Heath has a comprehensive career in the royalty sector and public markets with over two decades of experience. Over his career, he has founded and built over $1 billion in value using the royalty model in the public and private markets. He is currently the Chief Executive Officer of Metalla Royalty (NYSE: MTA) and Director of Key Carbon Ltd. (Private). He has completed over 50 royalty transactions in gold, silver, copper, nickel, and carbon markets with a diverse group of counterparties from major corporates, private equity, and private interests.

Michael Gentile, strategic investor in the junior mining sector and co-founder of Bastion Asset Management, discusses the current state of the gold mining industry and its potential for mean reversion. He highlights that gold mining stocks are trading at depressed levels despite record-high gold prices, creating a compelling entry point for investors. Gentile notes that while gold prices have tripled since 2018, gold mining stocks have lagged behind, offering significant value.

Gentile emphasizes the importance of investing in commodities during periods of low sentiment and depressed prices, as this setup often precedes substantial returns. He points to historical cycles where negative sentiment and undervaluation led to major rebounds in gold mining stocks. Gentile also underscores the strong fundamentals of the industry, including record margins and free cash flow generation, which he attributes to higher gold prices and stable costs.

He contrasts the current market with past periods, such as 2015-2020, where similar conditions led to significant rallies in gold mining stocks. Gentile believes that the sector is poised for a rotation, driven by improving fundamentals and macroeconomic factors like central bank buying of gold and geopolitical uncertainties. He also notes that while tech stocks have outperformed gold mining stocks historically, the latter now offers a unique opportunity due to its undervaluation.

Gentile advises investors to diversify their exposure to the sector through ETFs or baskets of producing companies before moving into higher-risk junior miners. He stresses patience and a long-term perspective, as building mines takes time and requires careful consideration of jurisdictional risks and infrastructure challenges.

In conclusion, Gentile sees the gold mining sector as a multi-year tailwind driven by macroeconomic trends, including the repositioning of gold as a hedge against inflation and the US dollar’s decline. He encourages investors to allocate at least 5-10% of their portfolios to gold or related equities to preserve wealth in uncertain times.

Timestamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:43 – Mining Valuations & Risk
3:08 – Catalysts & Charts
7:24 – Margin Expansion Growth
13:53 – Miners & Projections
16:08 – Global Slowdown Impacts?
19:10 – Capital Rotation Charts
25:15 – Timing & Positioning
28:43 – Lassonde Curve & Patience
32:13 – Other Metals & Sentiment
34:46 – Project Timelines & Risks
40:00 – M&A & Finding Projects
45:50 – Secondary Project Factors
48:20 – Rating Jurisdictions
50:37 – Development & Resource Est.
53:47 – Advice for New Investors
56:37 – Portfolio Weightings
59:23 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-gentile-01028552
Website: https://bastion-am.com

Michael Gentile, CFA, Founding Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager

Before founding BAM, Michael was Vice President and Senior Portfolio Manager at Formula Growth Ltd for over 17 years. Michael co-managed the FG Alpha Fund (US SMid equity market neutral) between 2012 and 2018, co-managed the FG Focus Fund (US SMid long short strategy) between 2014 and 2018. Since leaving FG in 2018, Michael has been very successful investing in the gold sector also acting as Strategic Advisor and Director for several companies in the natural resource sector. Michael graduated with Great Distinction from the John Molson School of Business (Concordia University) with a Bachelor of Commerce (Finance) and received the Calvin Potter Fellowship from Concordia’s Kenneth Woods Portfolio Management Program. He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation (CFA)

Tom welcomes back Luke Gromen of Forest For The Trees back to the show. The discussion delves into complex economic and geopolitical dynamics, focusing on how global powers might navigate a transition away from the dollar-based system towards a neutral reserve asset like gold. He begins by highlighting that the current dollar-centric system is unsustainable due to high deficits and debt levels. A potential solution, he suggests, involves using gold as a neutral reserve asset, which would allow commodities to be priced in multiple currencies and facilitate trade settlements. This shift could create a more balanced and resilient global economic framework.

Moving on to geopolitical implications, Gromen notes that the conflict in Ukraine has underscored the limitations of conventional military strategies, shifting the balance of power dynamics. He points out that countries like Russia and China are driving efforts to move away from the dollar system, which necessitates a new economic framework. This transition is not just an economic shift but also a significant geopolitical realignment.

Luke emphasizes the importance of incentives for avoiding direct military confrontation with major powers. He explains that such conflicts are strategically unwise due to nuclear deterrence and the deep interdependence of economies. Instead, he argues that negotiating a new economic order aligns with long-term strategic interests and avoids the catastrophic consequences of war.

Drawing on historical context, Mr. Gromen observes that the post-World War II debt-based economy is nearing its limits, making it imperative to return to a more sustainable model. He suggests that transitioning to gold as a reserve asset could reboot global economies, fostering stability and growth without resorting to conflict. This approach not only addresses current economic challenges but also positions nations for future prosperity.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:55 – Tariffs & China’s Response
5:52 – Trade Disruption & Inflation
8:26 – Inflation & Real Rates
10:35 – Bessent Put & Move Index
12:26 – Treasury Auction Thoughts
16:45 – W. Buffett Cash Reserve
22:14 – Inv. Funds and Mandates
23:53 – News Cycle/Gold Theory
31:00 – Chinese Fin. Officials
34:46 – Large U.S. Gold Imports
40:48 – Official Denial/Confirm
44:44 – Revaluing Gold Reserves
48:28 – Gold Backed Treasuries?
51:49 – Gold Pricing Cui Bono
54:17 – Oil/Dollar Scenarios
1:02:03 – Russia/Saudi & Oil Mkts.
1:03:39 – Economics & Derisk. Conflict
1:14:53 – Incentives & Ukraine
1:17:17 – End of Debt as Assets Era
1:21:30 – Wrap Up

Guest Links:
Twitter: https://x.com/lukegromen
Website: https://fftt-llc.com/

Luke Gromen began his career in the mid-1990s in Research at Midwest Research before moving over to institutional equity sales and becoming a partner. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients. He aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

In 2006, Luke left FTN Midwest to become a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company. At CRC, Luke continued to work in sales and edit CRC’s flagship weekly research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s customers.

In 2014, Luke left Cleveland Research to found FFTT, LLC (“Forest for the Trees”), a macro/thematic research firm catering to institutions and individuals that aggregates a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic, and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks.

Luke also provides strategic consulting services for corporate executives. He is a graduate of the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University and earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Tom welcomes back Chris Vermeulen, the founder of The Technical Traders, to discuss the highly volatile year of 2025 so far. He notes that volatility has been extreme across various asset classes, driven by factors like geopolitical tensions, AI advancements, and fears of an impending recession.

Vermeulen emphasized that while day traders thrive in such environments due to significant intraday swings, swing traders face increased risks with massive price gaps. Long-term investors should prioritize capital preservation by moving to cash until market clarity emerges, as he believes a bear market has already begun.

He warned against the “buy the dip” mentality, especially for those nearing retirement, cautioning that this approach could lead to significant losses in a prolonged bear market. Vermeulen points out key indicators of an impending financial reset, including economic data showing hiring declines and rising unemployment, as well as housing market corrections with inventories soaring.

Gold was discussed as a safe haven asset, though Vermeulen cautioned about potential pullbacks. He suggested that gold miners could offer better opportunities once the market stabilizes. Seasonality plays a role in his analysis, noting that stock markets typically struggle post-May, aligning with his bearish outlook.

Real estate was also addressed, with Vermeulen predicting price drops of 15-20% and warning about the broader economic impact as housing values decline. He highlighted the psychological effect on investors when their largest asset depreciates, potentially leading to panic selling across markets.

The U.S. dollar’s potential strength was discussed, with Vermeulen suggesting it could rally in a risk-off environment.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:52 – Market Volatility & Trading
4:58 – Markets in Topping Stage
8:30 – Cliff Phase Indicators
15:22 – Downside Targets Gold
18:50 – Expectations for Miners?
23:18 – Seasonality in 2025?
26:00 – Silver Markets & Risk?
28:57 – Bitcoin Decoupling
31:45 – Real Estate & Nest Eggs
34:30 – Google Search Trends
42:08 – Dollar Thoughts
48:49 – Mkt Resets & Wrap Up

Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TheTechTraders
Website: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/

Chris Vermeulen is the Founder of Technical Traders Ltd. Chris has been involved in the markets since 1997. He is an internationally recognized technical analyst, trader, and author.

Years of research, trading, and helping individual traders worldwide have taught him that many traders have great trading ideas, but they lack one thing. They struggle to execute trades systematically for consistent results. Chris helps educate traders, and his mission is to help his clients boost their trading performance while reducing market exposure and portfolio volatility.

He has also been on the cover of AmalgaTrader Magazine and featured in Futures Magazine, Gold-Eagle, Safe Haven, The Street, Kitco, Financial Sense, Dick Davis Investment Digest, and dozens of other financial websites.