The FOMC met today and while predictably there was no rate action, neither the dots nor the downgraded economy were the key takeaways. Chair Powell’s press conference became the perfect example of what the Fed has become. 

What would you say you do here?

Meanwhile, the markets, the economy and T-bills. 

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Struggling airlines grappling with staycations offer insight into consumer behavior. Meanwhile, the government also showed spending on goods (and certain key services) tanked again in May. Even the world's biggest entertainers and their concert tours are suddenly having a hard time. The dreaded pullback keeps getting louder and more confirmed.   

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IATA June 2025
https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2025-releases/2025-06-02-01/

Bloomberg Trump Risks US Consumer Discontent With His Tariffs, Poll Shows
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-24/trump-risks-us-consumer-discontent-with-his-tariffs-poll-shows

Bloomberg Concert Ticket Prices Are Falling For the First Time in Years
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-06-16/concert-ticket-prices-are-falling-for-the-first-time-in-years

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Nine months later, China's bazooka has totally flopped. We have all the proof necessary. But the "stimulus" failure is not even the biggest takeaway. The full story behind it starts with banks, detours into massive volatility in Hong Kong, before ending up with zombies. Seriously. 

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Bloomberg Beijing’s Borrowing Drove Credit Growth Despite Weak Loan Demand
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-13/china-credit-expansion-new-loans-rose-less-than-expected-in-may

Bloomberg China Forced to Keep Unprofitable Firms Alive to Save Jobs and Avoid Unrest
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-06-12/xi-keeps-china-s-unprofitable-businesses-alive-to-save-jobs-and-avoid-unrest

HK HIBOR
https://www.hkab.org.hk/en/rates/hibor

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Oil explodes at the worst time imaginable. There is no good time, of course, here in June 2025 the economy is dealing with tariffs, tariff-distortions, not to mention a noticeable amount of fragility already. Is rising oil going to spark the inflation reignition the Fed has been fearing?

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When did the dollar stop being a dollar? Most people might answer August 15, 1971, but a more accurate answer would be around a hundred years before then. There isn't exact date, just the most consequential evolution no one has ever heard of. The good news is that evolution doesn't stop. 

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Why are LT rates rising? Most people say it is the long overdue reckoning. After resisting inflation, the Fed, most of all insane debt levels for years, the chickens have finally come home to roost for longer-dated Treasury notes and bonds. And that would mean the market was wrong about all those factors up until now. What IS happening on the curve?

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Negative downgrades to the world. Negative rates among major bonds already. Negative prices for consumers - here in the United States. The deflationary signals keep picking up. More to the point, all of this adds up to what markets like swaps have been saying for years. And that's the bad news. 

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World Bank 
https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects

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Central bankers are being forced to reckon with their inflation biases which are not standing up to reality. Deflationary consequences are breaking out worldwide, either in the form of increasingly layoff-riddled labor markets or outright price deflation; sometimes both. The global race to the bottom for interest rates is spreading as acknowledgement of economic facts rather than Economics fantasy. 

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RBI went full-blown shock and awe. Yet another major global central bank previously fixated on "inflation" abruptly and aggressively joining the race to the bottom. For India, it wasn't  heavy rate cuts this time. Indian Officials said they want to shore up confidence; OK, so how bad is confidence if they fell "shock and awe" is necessary to shore it up?

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BBC India central bank delivers sharp rate cut as growth and inflation fall
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62vdq6g945o

Times of India
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/bank-loans-to-nbfcs-slows-sharply/articleshow/121557368.cms

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ST rates have dropped sharply in the past few weeks, the past few days, in particular. The 4w Treasury bill now yields less than IOR, repo, even the Fed's RRP "floor." That's not all: the 3m10s spread has reinverted again. At the same time another major central bank just hit the panic button, going with a 50-bps cut only a few months after getting started. Where is this all heading? Not in Jay's direction.

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