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Macy's is yet another with a warning on the economy just in time for the payroll numbers on February. They were a disaster if hardly anyone saw the true scale of it. Macy's might have a sense, as do other retailers. The data shows there really is big time trouble brewing in the jobs market.

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WSJ Macy’s Expects Sales to Drop Again This Year
https://www.wsj.com/business/earnings/macys-q4-earnings-results-m-stock-d3da1b6a

CNBC U.S. payroll growth totals 151,000 in February, less than expected
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/07/jobs-report-february-2025.html

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Another bazooka, this time from Germany, of all places. The mere thought of it has been enough to send the German bond market into a tailspin and sending yields to nearly their highest in fourteen years while also pulling other parts of the marketplace into it, too. Does the selloff signal inflation, success, or something else entirely? What are the implications for everyone else?

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Politico Germany moves to overhaul debt rules to unleash major defense spending
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-unveils-e500-billion-defense-plan-as-security-threats-mount/

Roberto Perotti What Do We Know about the Effects of Fiscal Policy?
https://www.siepweb.it/siep/wp/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/1397925830013.pdf

Wilson, Daniel J.. 2012. "Fiscal Spending Jobs Multipliers: Evidence from the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 4 (3): 251–82.
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf/doi/10.1257/pol.4.3.251

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Target issued another warning on the economy and then joined Best Buy as merely the first to say they're raising prices. While that may sound inflationary, it's the opposite and will end up pushing interest rates even lower. Those are already happening in the market, in part as markets more confidently price how the Fed is going to have to follow along, too. Just like last summer. 

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Bloomberg Target, Best Buy Warn US Consumers of Tariff Price Hikes
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-04/target-sees-flat-sales-this-year-warns-of-risk-from-tariffs

Bloomberg Traders Pile Into Fed Rate-Cut Bets as Tariffs Roil Markets
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-04/us-yield-curve-steepens-on-growth-angst-with-tariffs-now-reality

Atlanta Fed GDPNow
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

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Stocks are getting hit, with bond yields tumbling. The "growth scare" gets louder as the luxury car brand just confirmed it's heading for the worst, no longer willing to hold out for economic strength everyone talks about yet never happens. The forgot how to grow economy is firmly at risk of remembering traditional recession mechanics. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

WSJ Mercedes-Benz Plans to Cut Jobs as Earnings Expected to Slump
https://www.wsj.com/business/earnings/mercedes-benz-plans-cost-cuts-as-earnings-expected-to-fall-this-year-6268813a

Bloomberg S&P 500 Sees Worst Selloff in 2025 as Bonds Climb: Markets Wrap
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-02/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates

ISM Feb 2025
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/february/

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Not a good week for financial markets. Oil down. Rates sunk. Stocks hit. Crypto crashing. Why? The "growth scare" is back. Or, at least, it's back in the mainstream. In reality, it never left and certain financial markets are being forced to reckon with this. 

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

Atlanta Fed GDPNow
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

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The new guy at the RBI said he wasn't going to interfere with the rupee as much as his predecessor. Apparently, the dollar has left him with little choice. It’s the fundamentals that matter. And even India is showing more signs of forgetting how to grow. That’s why the dollar has been on a rampage again and why RBI can't let it go. 

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Bloomberg India Central Bank’s Short Dollar Book Hit Record $77.5 Billion
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-28/india-central-bank-s-short-dollar-book-hit-record-77-5-billion

India: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for India
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2025/02/27/India-2024-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Statement-by-the-562726

IMF 2018
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2018/08/07/NA080818-India-Strong-Economy-Continues-to-Lead-Global-Growth

MacroVoices Mar-a-lago Accord
https://macrovoices.podbean.com/e/macrovoices-469-jeff-snider-the-mar-a-lago-accord-seen-through-a-eurodollar-lens/
At YT:
https://youtu.be/qeu6vrqZ980

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European banks are surging into safety, buying the third most on record in January. At the same time, they scaled back activities in the real economy expecting further deterioration. Their behavior also backs up market pricing especially interest rates, while also exposing the fallacy behind them. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

ECB BLS Q4 2024
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_surveys/bank_lending_survey/html/ecb.blssurvey2024q4~e1ddae0f19.en.html

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Why now? After teasing a bank recapitalization plan as part of last year's "bazooka", the CCP did nothing about it over the five months since raising the matter. Total silence. Now, all of a sudden, news banks are going to get their equity after all. What changed? There are a few suspects, starting with growing turmoil in money markets alongside more problems with real estate. 

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Bloomberg China to Inject at Least $55 Billion of Fresh Capital Into Several Big Banks
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-26/china-plans-to-start-bank-capital-hike-with-at-least-55-billion

Bloomberg China’s Property Crisis Enters a Dangerous New Phase
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-02-11/china-s-real-estate-crisis-property-sector-debt-is-getting-worse

Wapo CHINA ANNOUNCES LARGE BOND ISSUE TO BAIL OUT BANKS
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1998/03/01/china-announces-large-bond-issue-to-bail-out-banks/adcac8da-fe39-4b4c-90c0-13739847f35c/

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Rates are down sharply, so much the broad yield curve re-inverted from one critical spot. Given the macro context with crashing consumer confidence and a steep loss of economic momentum, particularly in the services sector, that re-inversion along with a multi-month low in 2-year yields is telling us everything we need to know. 

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Bloomberg Treasury Yields Slide as Confidence Gauge Stokes Economy Fears
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-25/treasuries-rally-as-traders-boost-bets-on-fed-interest-rate-cuts

Conference Board Consumer Confidence
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence

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Is there trouble brewing in the AI bubble? A report came out earlier today that Microsoft was scaling back its investments, one the company denied. Its substance, however, aligns with everything else that's going on, from Warren Buffett curiously choosing not to explain Berkshire's stock selling to the deteriorating conditions in South Korea. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Microsoft Dropped Some AI Data Center Leases, TD Cowen Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-24/microsoft-cancels-leases-for-ai-data-centers-analyst-says

Bloomberg South Korea’s Chip Exports Lead Trade Gains Fueling Economy
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-01/south-korea-s-chip-exports-lead-trade-gains-supporting-economy

Dow Jones South Korea Government Expects Economy to Slow in 2025
https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202501011398/south-korea-government-expects-economy-to-slow-in-2025

Bloomberg Bank of Korea Rate Cut Not a Done Deal This Month, Rhee Warns
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-06/bank-of-korea-s-rhee-leaves-door-open-to-another-rate-hold

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