Something big happened in late November, impacting markets all around the world. Responsible for the crash in currencies, the collapse in some interest rates, maybe even some modest upset over in the stock market. We have a number of clues to go off, a few suspects to analyze. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

CNBC Trump vows an additional 10% tariff on China, 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/26/trump-vows-an-additional-10percent-tariff-on-china-25percent-tariffs-on-canada-and-mexico.html

Truth Social 
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113546215408213585

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There are huge numbers being thrown around the stock market. Normally you can just ignore them since share prices go up almost no matter what. But these imbalances are now too big to simply dismiss and key sectors in the equity market aren't buying them. 

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WSJ Stocks on Pace for Best Two Years in a Quarter-Century
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/stocks-on-pace-for-best-two-years-in-a-quarter-century-c5b5f9b3

NYT Wall St. Sees More Gains Ahead After Another Bumper Year for Stocks
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/31/business/stock-market-2025-predictions.html

Motley Fool Prediction: The Artificial Intelligence (AI) Bubble Will Burst in 2025. Here's Why.
https://www.barchart.com/story/news/30123360/prediction-the-artificial-intelligence-ai-bubble-will-burst-in-2025-heres-why

ECB Financial Stability Review November 2024
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/html/index.en.html

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A plunge in Chicago kicks off more concerns over the global car business. Layoffs and plant closures keep coming as automakers are having enormous difficulties first aligning their businesses with the lack of recovery. On top of that, more indications beside Chicago pour in showing falling cyclical demand for cars, too. 

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Reuters Europe's embattled auto sector plans plant closures and layoffs
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/europes-embattled-auto-sector-plans-plant-closures-layoffs-2024-12-02/

InsideEVs Honda's CEO Struggles To Explain Why Nissan Merger Makes Sense
https://insideevs.com/news/745625/honda-nissan-merger-struggling-reason/

Japan trade 
https://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/shinbun/trade-st_e/2024/2024115e.pdf

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The biggest surprise of 2024 wasn't any election results nor was it the fact central banks worldwide are more desperately accelerating rate cuts as the year draws to close. Or that other governments and officials are resorting to increasing panicky measures to calm markets in their areas. What caught everyone so off guard about '24 was the one outcome that stands behind all of those things. 

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IMF WEO January 2024
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2024/01/30/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2024

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After facing a major setback, the Reserve Bank of India has ditched its longshot desperation tactic aimed at 'speculators' betting against the rupee. They aren't the problem, the fundamentals are  - global fundamentals. There is a lot INR has to say about those as it becomes the latest to plunge. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Business Standard RBI dials down use of NDFs to fight dollar, balance rupee stability
https://www.business-standard.com/finance/news/rbi-dials-down-use-of-ndfs-to-fight-dollar-balance-rupee-stability-124121800613_1.html

Business Standard RBI asks some lenders to reduce speculative positions against rupee
https://www.business-standard.com/economy/news/reserve-bank-asks-some-lenders-to-cut-speculative-bets-against-rupee-124112200628_1.html

Business Standard Rupee falls to new low of 85.27 as importers stock up dollar at month end
https://www.business-standard.com/economy/news/rupee-falls-to-new-low-of-85-27-as-importers-stock-up-dollar-at-month-end-124122600861_1.html

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More indications of substantial problems for American workers - they can't find any jobs. But why? Moreover, what will it take to get this major hiring freeze to thaw? It isn't rate cuts or lower rates. Nor does it appear the election has worked, either. Consumers plunged back into fears over jobs and incomes in December.

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NBC News From 'Great Resignation' to 'Great Detachment': How the U.S. job market has slowed
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/hard-to-find-a-job-get-hired-why-november-2024-jobs-report-rcna183102

Conference Board US Consumer Confidence Pulled Back in December
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence

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Major shift in the Treasury curve with a critical spread uninverting for the first time in years. Bonds and central banks are on the move, which leaves some of Treasury market going the wrong way. And the only reason is Jay Powell. From swaps to other bonds, even something called term premia, the Fed is in the dark while bonds are lighting up. 

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FRBNY Term Premia calculations
https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/data_indicators/term-premia-tabs#/interactive

Bloomberg Treasury ‘Term Premium’ Gauge Positive for First Time Since 2021
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-27/treasury-term-premium-gauge-positive-for-first-time-since-2021

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LT Chinese bond rates have been falling fast for a while. Over the last two weeks, ST yields have completely collapsed; most of it last week, too. Why? Maybe more important, why now? The mainstream answer to either one is total nonsense and easily debunked from the September bazooka. What does that leave? Possibly an old familiar name. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Chinese Regulator Asks Insurers to Report Vanke Debt Holdings
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-18/chinese-regulator-asks-insurers-to-report-vanke-debt-holdings

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According to the latest conventional 'wisdom' - which changes with each and every CPI report and FOMC dot adjustment - inflation is back and so is the soft landing. The most recent update from the labor market says that's entirely backward. Job findings have utterly plunged right when the jobs market reaches that 'magical' unemployment inflection spot on this critical curve. 

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

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There's more to the Brazil story, especially since Brazil's story isn't strictly about Brazil. With markets there spiraling into chaos, the government is down to blaming 'speculators.' If that's the case, then speculation has gone global in a lot of critical ways. From currencies to job findings plunging, even something real like the Baltic Dry which is crashing now, too. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Brazil Central Bank Rejects Doubts Over Power of Monetary Policy
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-19/brazil-central-bank-rejects-doubts-over-monetary-policy

Bloomberg Brazil Traders ‘Sell First, Ask Later’ as Panic Hits Markets
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-17/brazil-traders-sell-first-ask-later-as-panic-sweeps-markets

FT Warren Buffett's record cash pile is starting to make people nervous
https://financialpost.com/financial-times/warren-buffett-cash-pile-investors-nervous

Bloomberg Brazil Finance Chief Says Real May Be Under ‘Speculative Attack’
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-18/brazil-finance-chief-says-real-may-be-under-speculative-attack

Bloomberg Brazil Spends $17 Billion in Reserves to Lift Cratering Real
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-20/central-bank-burns-17-billion-in-reserves-to-lift-brazil-s-real

Bloomberg Brazil’s Wealthy Lament Political Dysfunction as Fortunes Tumble
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-20/brazil-s-richest-people-lament-political-dysfunction-as-fortunes-tumble

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