Eurodollar University

Germany's government is the latest casualty of the "vibecession." Amid a flurry of political activity, the markets throw up another major warning with the first ever negative swap spread. Predictably, the mainstream media can't make sense of swaps, the situation, or the economics. It's the economy, stupid. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Germany’s Government Puts Itself Out of Its Misery
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-11-07/germany-s-coalition-government-puts-itself-out-of-its-misery

Bloomberg Fear of German Debt Binge Flips Key Market Gauge for First Time
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-07/fear-of-german-debt-binge-flips-key-market-gauge-for-first-time

Bloomberg Scholz Sees Germany Riding Out War in Ukraine Without Recession
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-01-17/german-chancellor-olaf-scholz-on-2023-economic-outlook-war-in-ukraine

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Huge moves, major negatives, and record declines for one of the most critical pieces of the entire global system. While election euphoria has gripped certain financial markets, this one is doing the opposite. It is a key warning about where everything stands before even considering whether or not Trump's victory changes anything. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Demand for gasoil, the basic fuel which runs the entire modern world, is actually declining. Having stumbled over the summer, this exceptionally rare development is another really negative sign to go with, relatedly, even more production and job cuts across the auto industry. Energy, autos, economy. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Diesel Set For Growing Glut as Demand Falters
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-05/diesel-set-for-growing-glut-as-demand-falters

World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/bbda9ad3-4f12-4626-ad4b-94a4d20fbd52/content

Bloomberg OPEC Cuts Global Oil Demand Growth Forecasts for Third Consecutive Month
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-14/opec-cuts-global-oil-demand-growth-forecasts-for-third-consecutive-month

OPEC June 2
https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7339.htm

OPEC Sept 5
https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7369.htm

OPEC Nov 3
https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7409.htm

Bloomberg Even Some High-Income Americans Can’t Afford New Cars Anymore
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-04/soaring-2024-new-car-prices-turn-more-buyers-toward-used-vehicles

Nikkei Nissan cutting production of main U.S. models by 30%
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Nissan-cutting-production-of-main-U.S.-models-by-30

Guru Focus Nissan Cuts Production Amid Declining U.S. Demand, Threatening Global Sales Goals
https://www.gurufocus.com/news/2582356/nissan-cuts-production-amid-declining-us-demand-threatening-global-sales-goals

EuroNews Thousands of jobs to go at German car parts maker Schaeffler
https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/11/05/thousands-of-jobs-to-go-at-german-car-parts-maker-schaeffler

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Why are interest rates rising at one end of the yield at the same time falling on the opposite side? With more recession data coming in all the time, starting with payrolls, it seems as though there should be a uniform response from the marketplace. But that's not how steepening works. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Washington Post
House Passes Bush Tax Cut
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2001/03/09/house-passes-bush-tax-cut/99152799-f156-414f-82c4-bed4fca05bb3/

Time ‘The Worst Is Over’
https://time.com/archive/6917914/the-worst-is-over/

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

October payrolls were exceptionally weak, yet LT rates jump? With more rate cuts from the Fed basically assured, questions swirl around the Treasury selloff having many people wondering if there is a 'Trump trade' going on here. The answers are right there in front of us.

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

This isn't about October or hurricanes. Government just confirmed jobs market is in big f-ing trouble. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

BLS Employment Situation October 2024
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_11012024.pdf

CNN Messy October jobs report muddied by strikes and storms ahead of Election Day
 https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/us-jobs-report-october-11-01-24/index.html

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The government's latest data confirms the dramatic slowdown sweeping across the labor market. We've been documenting hours being cut, quitters quitting quits, no one hiring, and now even a few layoffs. Not only do the latest figures back all that up, they also help explain consumer behavior and even the last GDP estimate. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

CNBC Ford guides to low end of 2024 earnings forecast as it slightly tops Wall Street’s third-quarter expectations
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/28/ford-motor-f-earnings-q3-2024.html

Ford Q3 
https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2024/10/28/third-quarter-2024-financial-results.html

Challenger Gray & Christmas October 2024
https://www.challengergray.com/blog/job-cuts-fall-in-october-2024-but-ytd-up-4-from-last-year/

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Another seemingly solid US GDP report for the books thanks in large part to a huge allotment of missiles. Does this mean the soft landing has been achieved?  Even if it has been achieved, we wouldn't know it from GDP data. Instead, history shows cyclical changes all look decent just before them. The latest quarterly data is not just comparable, it is, surprisingly, worse than every other period entering recession.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Repo fails make sense being an indicator of collateral difficulties. Same for the 4-week US Treasury bill rate when it falls substantially. But how does Japanese government bill yields fit into the US$ repo picture? And why are they such a solid fit for it? The answer lies in the carry trade and what it means for funding markets as well as US recession risks. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Mizuho Buys ‘Safe’ Assets on Risk That US Soft Landing Fails
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-08/mizuho-buys-safe-assets-to-cut-damage-if-us-soft-landing-fails

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Some unexpected bad news out of South Korea has implications for AI and a lot more. The investment boom triggered by ChatGPT has been a critical support for especially the Asian economy. Now there are signs it is cooling off along with a further setback in autos. Inopportune timing, to say the least.  

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

Bloomberg South Korea’s Economy Ekes Out Growth as BOK Assesses Risks
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-23/south-korea-s-economy-ekes-out-growth-to-emerge-from-contraction

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU