Japan was, they said, on the cusp of generational shift. The real outlier in a growing tide of reversals, BoJ was still hiking still anticipating an inflationary recovery. It has all come crashing down, globally synchronized. But not before one final plot twist. 

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The Treasury Secretary spoke through the financial media to Jay Powell. He had a very simple message for the Fed Chair: pay attention to the 2s. And Ronald McDonald. It's not just the Treasury market. If only that was the case, there is also a close relationship - therefore strong warning - coming via the oil market, too. This is already why OPEC is itself shifting to recession economics.

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Bloomberg Bessent Says Two-Year Treasuries Signaling Fed Should Cut
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-01/bessent-says-two-year-treasuries-are-signaling-fed-should-cut

Bloomberg Understanding the Unlikely Saudi Push for Lower Oil Prices
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-05-01/opec-puzzle-understanding-the-saudi-push-for-lower-oil-prices

CNN McDonald’s just had its worst quarter since Covid. It said customers are getting nervous
https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/01/investing/mcdonalds-earnings-first-quarter-2025

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A slew of economic reports from around the biggest global economies. Starting with US GDP, then Mexico, Germany and Europe then finally some critical macro data from China. There is indeed a common thread running through all of them, and it has markets spooked: CtG hit a new multi-year low barely above the 2020 lows. 

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CNBC Private payroll growth slowed to 62,000 in April, well below expectations
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/adp-jobs-report-april-2025.html

Bloomberg Mexico Economy Narrowly Dodges Recession Amid US Trade Chaos
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-30/mexico-economy-narrowly-dodges-recession-amid-trump-trade-chaos

CNBC Euro zone economy expands by better-than-expected 0.4% in the first quarter
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/euro-zone-gdp-q1-2025.html

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Another day, another crash; or crashes. Conference Board expectations plunged to their lowest level since 2011. Another Fed PMI plummets. Two-year Treasury yields hit their lows. All pointing to that Beveridge transition.

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Conference Board Consumer Confidence April 2025
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/press/CCI-Apr-2025

Atlanta Fed GDPNow
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

Bloomberg Economists Say Trade War Makes US Recession Almost a Coin Flip
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-04-25/economists-say-trade-war-makes-us-recession-almost-a-coin-flip

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If you were to go off of only data collected by the Federal Reserve on the economy, you'd be left with no other option than to see it at best on the doorstep of full-blown recession. Yet, officials argue inflation anyway. The real question is where all this information and evidence instead fits the "labor curve." Unfortunately, the Fed's numbers all fall on flat. 

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Fed Beige Book April 2025
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20250423.pdf

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey 
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2025/2504#tab-report

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While other airlines were pulling their forecasts afraid to tell the truth and preferring to hide under behind "uncertainty", Southwest's CEO bluntly stated there's a recession. And that's exactly what is starting to emerge from the Federal Reserve's very own contacts, thus why former FOMC hawks are now sounding incredibly dovish, the fundamentals of interest rates in all directions. 

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

Bloomberg Southwest CEO Says US Airline Industry Is Already in a Recession
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-24/southwest-ceo-says-us-airline-industry-is-already-in-a-recession

Fed Beige Book April 2025
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20250423.pdf

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Weakness in key Asian bellwether has authorities there panicking into bailouts, setting its central on course to be the next major to head into "historically" low interest rates. That's not all, there's already spillover from the tariff shock in China where reports show work stoppages and factory closings. And rates there are right back near record lows. 

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ChosunBiz South Korea's economy faces 0.2% GDP decline amid tariff and political turmoil
https://biz.chosun.com/en/en-policy/2025/04/24/O6H63WLPC5BHDE3HUEYUTF6UUM

South Korea Ministerial Meeting on Economic Affairs and Ministerial Meeting on Strengthening Industrial Competitiveness (Apr.15, 2025)
https://english.moef.go.kr/pc/selectTbPressCenterDtl.do;jsessionid=ngE3YYBKCpQ6L--F1ty-I76Sl7rjfIGh94TDtjlr.node20?boardCd=N0001&seq=6146

FT Chinese factories slow production and send workers home as US tariffs bite
https://www.ft.com/content/d5784258-4de3-44a1-94ae-6f763857b034

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Walmart isn't sitting on tariffs. They instead rolling back more prices understanding what Chipotle just found out the hard way. The burrito bowl restaurant reported its first sales decline since the lockdowns, and the reason why has everyone from airlines to Walmart scrambling. 

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Bloomberg Walmart Amps Up Discounts as Rivals Weigh Tariff-Driven Hikes
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-24/walmart-amps-up-discounts-to-lure-cost-conscious-customers

Bloomberg Walmart Keeps Price Pressure on Suppliers After Beijing Pushback
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-02/walmart-keeps-price-pressure-on-suppliers-after-beijing-pushback

CNBC Chipotle is seeing a ‘slowdown’ in consumer spending as 2025 gets off to a rough start
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/23/chipotle-mexican-grill-cmg-q1-2025-earnings.html

Bloomberg American Air Is Latest US Carrier to Give Up on 2025 Forecast
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-24/american-air-aal-pulls-full-year-outlook-on-soft-travel-demand-worry

Bloomberg United Airlines Is So Unsure About the Economy It Offers Two Profit Scenarios
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-15/united-air-flags-recessionary-risk-while-keeping-profit-target

CNBC Alaska Airlines warns of slower demand as second-quarter profit outlook falls short
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/23/alaska-air-alk-1q-2025-earnings.html

SPG Composite PMI flash April 2025
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/9ee36c52b8a649adada211c1842512be

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While the whole world seems convinced the rest of it is rotating away from Treasuries, the actual evidence unequivocally shows something very different. This isn't a one-time relationship, either. Instead, a deep fundamental basis that connects repo, interest rates foundations, global banks, and the recent deflationary developments. 

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Bloomberg Traders View Treasury Auctions as Litmus Test for Foreign Buyers
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-23/us-treasury-auctions-offer-latest-clues-on-foreign-buyers-strike

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Another day, another major warning this time once again from the Swiss. This one is a critical dollar signal. Even though the mainstream gets it completely backward, that diminish the significance of the surge. Plus, it is being corroborated by others along with changes to macro interpretations even among official bodies like the IMF.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

SNB's Martin Schlegel December 12, 2024
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-12-12/snb-s-schlegel-on-interest-rate-decision-negative-rates

IMF WEO April 2025
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2025/04/22/world-economic-outlook-april-2025

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