DXY fell to its lowest value in more than two years. That means the dollar is crashing, right? Everyone says so, but when it comes to the dollar or anything related to the monetary system what everyone says is rarely ever so. The dollar IS going nuts, at least that part's right.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Reuters US dollar stranglehold on global FX sets stage for euro parity: Reuters poll
https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/us-dollar-stranglehold-global-fx-sets-stage-euro-parity-2025-01-08/

Reuters Next up for markets: A crisis of confidence in the dollar
https://www.reuters.com/markets/wealth/next-up-markets-crisis-confidence-dollar-2025-04-04/

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
 http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/

One of the most critical and dependable monetary signals we have utterly crashed this week. While other financial markets struggle to regain their footing, this one says there's more disorder still to come along with the negative consequences from it in the real economy. And to punctuate how high the possibilities are, the BLS reported a disturbingly negative CPI for March. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Why are Treasury yields soaring when they should be falling on flight to safety? This is the telltale sign of something we're not supposed to talk about or even recognize. As clear as day, the Treasury market's supposed breakdown explains everything else that's happening alongside it: why there are liquidations and chaos seemingly in every direction. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Basis Trade/Hedge Fund Bailout
https://youtu.be/MF3B0puKkxU

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Downgrades are coming in from all over the place, this one from America's top CEOs. Worse than that, critical segments of the bond market wholeheartedly agree with the increasingly dire assessments, making multiyear lows of their own. Moreover, the latest data on consumer credit fans the flames of ongoing liquidations. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

CNBC CEOs think the U.S. is ‘probably in a recession right now,’ says BlackRock’s Larry Fink
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/07/ceos-think-the-us-is-probably-in-a-recession-right-now-says-blackrocks-larry-fink.html

Bloomberg Goldman Boosts Recession Risk, Brings Forward Fed Rate-Cut Call
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-07/goldman-boosts-recession-risk-brings-forward-fed-rate-cut-call

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Today was Asia's turn to get pummeled by margin calls, distressed sales, even liquidations. Within all those, there are growing signs of monetary deflation. First, the key role Japan played in what happened. Then, an abrupt selloff in Treasuries which left the mainstream shaking its collective head. Instead, a telltale sign all its own. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Asian Stocks Tumble Most Since 2008 on Global Recession Worries
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-07/asian-stock-benchmarks-drops-most-in-14-years-on-tariff-concerns

Bloomberg China Stocks Suffer ‘Panic Selling’ as Tariff War Escalates
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-07/chinese-stocks-plunge-amid-growing-fear-of-full-blown-trade-war

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Market meltdowns took center stage and attention away from March payroll estimates. They were overshadowed by a rise in unemployment which further cemented growing financial concerns the economy has already fallen into the bad case. That point has previously been raised by a key factor almost everyone had missed. 

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
 http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/

If you want to come hang out at Rebel Capitalist Live, Use code jeff (lowercase) at checkout to get $100 off your ticket → https://rebelcapitalistlive.com/

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Downgrade fever is here. It's coming in from private sources as well as central banks, in the US as well as outside of it. The global economy's loss of momentum has become too much to ignore any longer. While that just means everyone will blame tariffs, all those are doing is waking everyone up to what's been happening for some time already.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Atlanta Fed GDPNow 
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

Bloomberg Fed’s Goolsbee Warns of Tariff-Induced Pullback in Spending
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-01/fed-s-goolsbee-warns-of-tariff-induced-pullback-in-spending

CNBC #RecessionIndicator: Young Americans are losing confidence in the economy — and it shows online
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/27/young-americans-are-losing-confidence-in-economy-and-it-shows-online.html

CNBC First-quarter GDP growth will be just 0.3% as tariffs stoke stagflation conditions, says CNBC survey
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/31/first-quarter-gdp-growth-will-be-just-0point3percent-as-tariffs-stoke-stagflation-conditions-says-cnbc-survey.html

Bloomberg Pimco Favors Stable Returns From Bonds as Recession Risk Builds
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-01/pimco-favors-stable-returns-from-bonds-as-recession-risk-builds

OECD March 2025
https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-march-2025_89af4857-en.html

OECD December 2024
https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2024/12/oecd-economic-outlook-volume-2024-issue-2_67bb8fac.html

OECD November 2010
https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2010/12/oecd-economic-outlook-volume-2010-issue-2_g1ghbb4a/eco_outlook-v2010-2-en.pdf

Bloomberg France’s 2025 Economic Growth Forecast to Be Cut, Minister Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-02/france-s-2025-economic-growth-forecast-to-be-cut-minister-says

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The selloff in the riskiest corners of the credit market has been significant over the past month, yet there are worries it is nowhere near enough. Some have called it the financial system's gray swan, the most glaring inconsistency nearly everyone is simply ignoring or trying to paper over. As the economy deteriorates - with more evidence today - the risk to the system only gets bigger and louder. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg US Recession Fear Raises ‘Gray Swan’ Risk for Bond Investors
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-01/us-recession-worries-raise-gray-swan-risk-for-bond-investors

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

There are growing signs the AI bubble has indeed been a bubble and it may be reversing. That's not great for stocks, obviously, but the potential goes way beyond plaguing equities. There are direct impacts as well as, most importantly, the combination with other negative factors producing a confluence of too many headwinds. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Microsoft Abandons Data Center Projects, TD Cowen Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-26/microsoft-abandons-more-data-center-projects-td-cowen-says

Bloomberg Alibaba’s Tsai Warns of ‘Bubble’ in AI Data Center Buildout
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-25/alibaba-s-tsai-warns-of-a-bubble-in-ai-datacenter-buildout

Bloomberg US Credit Risk Gauge Shows Fear Rising as Tariffs Loom This Week
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-31/us-credit-risk-gauge-shows-fear-rising-as-tariffs-loom-this-week

WSJ Tech Giants Double Down on Their Massive AI Spending
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/tech-giants-double-down-on-their-massive-ai-spending-b3040b33

Goldman Sachs Will the $1 trillion of generative AI investment pay off?
https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/will-the-1-trillion-of-generative-ai-investment-pay-off

CNBC First-quarter GDP growth will be just 0.3% as tariffs stoke stagflation conditions, says CNBC survey
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/31/first-quarter-gdp-growth-will-be-just-0point3percent-as-tariffs-stoke-stagflation-conditions-says-cnbc-survey.html

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU