Opening round of the 2025 trade wars. Mexico and Canada in the crosshairs. Neither of them stood a chance. The pounding started even before the negotiations began. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

NYT Here’s What to Know About Trump’s Tariffs
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/01/business/trump-tariffs-canada-mexico-china.html

Truth Social, Trump Mexico Message
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113940711907400754

Bloomberg Car Prices Face $3,000 Increase as Automakers Worry Over Tariffs
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-02/car-prices-face-3-000-increase-as-trump-tariffs-hit-auto-sector

Financial Post Trump takes aim at Canada's banking sector as tariffs loom
https://financialpost.com/fp-finance/banking/trump-takes-aim-canada-banking-sector-tariffs-loom

Live updates: Trump discusses tariffs with Canada and Mexico
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/live-blog/trump-canada-mexico-tariffs-live-updates-rcna190371

As Trade War Intensifies, Watch for Soaring Inflation, July 2018
https://assuredam.com/2018/07/as-trade-war-intensifies-watch-out-for-inflation/

FOMC Transcript June 2019
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20190619meeting.pdf

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Gold has been soaring all of 2025 so far, reaching a new all-time high this past week as yet another major cyclical warning was triggered. Trade wars may account for some of the urgency, the real story is how in a world that's entirely artificial more in it desperately demand something real. It's getting easier to sort what's real from so much fakery. 

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

Bloomberg STMicro Eyes Workforce Cuts of Up to 3,000 in Chip Slump
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-31/stmicro-eyes-workforce-cuts-of-up-to-6-as-chip-slump-drags-on

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Silicon Valley Bank's failure in March 2023 kicked off a chain of events that has cascaded across money, banks, and the real economy. The world economy didn't forget how to grow, the banking crisis of early '23 proved to be the final inflection point. Central banks may have won the battle over banks, then lost the war where it truly mattered. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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Banks are in full-on defensive mode, GDP is in a huge and growing hole, and central bankers are realizing they're stuck no matter what. The end of last year for Europe stands as a stark warning that this global transition remains far from over with - even after two years of it already. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

ECB statement
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/activities/mopo/html/index.en.html

Bloomberg ECB Cuts Rates for Fifth Time as Euro-Zone Economy Flatlines
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-30/ecb-cuts-rates-for-fifth-time-as-euro-zone-economy-flatlines

Bloomberg Traders’ ECB Rate Cut Bets Fuel Biggest Yield Drop in Two Months
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-30/german-two-year-yields-slump-as-traders-boost-ecb-rate-cut-bets

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Reviewing the Fed, the Canadians, Sweden, and previewing the ECB. Market reactions and what really happened at the FOMC.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Bets on Big Treasuries Rally Are Booming Before Fed Decision
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-28/bets-on-bigger-treasuries-rally-are-booming-before-fed-decision

Bloomberg Traders Bet ECB Will Need to Deepen and Accelerate Rate Cuts
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-29/traders-bet-ecb-will-need-to-deepen-and-accelerate-rate-cuts

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Shipping rates have plunged in January. The sinking demand for raw materials is another warning about the state of the economy in 2025. It was one echoed yet again by American consumers who, after a short reprieve on rate cuts and election, are right back to worrying about jobs and incomes all over again.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Investopedia
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/baltic_dry_index.asp

Bloomberg US Consumer Confidence Drops to Four-Month Low on Job Market
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-28/us-consumer-confidence-drops-to-four-month-low-on-job-market

Conference Board 
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence

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Chinese banks are the real story, even as China's government (intentionally?) stole the spotlight with its AI-knock-off, a distraction from the latest real economy warning and most importantly the banking sector's latest. The credit crisis in the latter may finally be coming to a head as it keeps the former from stabilizing. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

AA Xi Jinping
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/on-chinese-new-year-s-eve-xi-vows-to-confront-challenges-without-hesitation-/3463706

Bloomberg China’s Economy Stumbles in Sign Rebound Hinges on More Stimulus
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-27/china-s-factory-activity-cools-ahead-of-major-new-year-holiday

Bloomberg China Starts Lowering Price Goals to Match Deflationary Reality
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-24/china-starts-lowering-price-goals-to-match-deflationary-reality

Bloomberg Markets Sound Alarm Over Deflationary Spiral in China
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-07/china-investors-sound-alarm-over-japan-style-deflation-as-yields-hit-record-low

Bloomberg Hong Kong’s Property Distress Is Catching Up With City’s Banks
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-26/hong-kong-s-property-distress-is-catching-up-with-city-s-banks

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South Korea is the latest to fall into "forgot how to grow" and Texas Instruments showed the world why. Both were slammed this week for getting to the same place from different perspectives. Critical cyclical indications that shocked the consensus. 

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

Bloomberg Texas Instruments Suffers Worst Rout Since 2020 on Weak Forecast
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-23/texas-instruments-outlook-signals-chip-slump-is-persisting

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While the dollar was screaming higher the past few months, that eurodollar disorder had foreign govts absolutely raiding their reserves, money dealers hoarding record amounts of collateral and record Treasuries being piled up by depositories. And those were just the beginning. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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President Trump created quite a stir in his speech to Davos, demanding, among other things, lower oil prices from OPEC plus lower interest rates out of Jay Powell. In fact, those two are linked with the one expected to pave the way for the other. What's the real game here? More important, what are the chances this can work?

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Trump Urges Lower Oil Prices, Interest Rate Cuts at Davos
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-23/trump-urges-opec-to-lower-oil-prices-warns-of-tariffs-at-davos

CNBC President Donald Trump says he’ll ‘demand that interest rates drop immediately’
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/23/president-donald-trump-says-hell-demand-that-interest-rates-drop-immediately.html

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