Amazon Prime Days have been doubled to four, simply confirming just how this year really is different for the consumer economy. It is merely the latest to testify for highly unusual weakness. Along with a sharp drop in credit card usage, the historically unusual decline in weekly worker earnings show exactly why there are four Prime Days this year. 

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NBC News Amazon extends Prime Day discounts to 4 days as retailers weigh tariffs and price increases
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/amazon-extends-prime-day-discounts-4-days-retailers-weigh-tariffs-pric-rcna217510

Bloomberg Amazon Sellers Curb Prime Day Discounts With Tariffs Taking Bite
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-08/amazon-sellers-curb-prime-day-discounts-with-tariffs-taking-bite

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This wasn't supposed to happen. In fact, many said it was impossible up to and including central bank officials at the Federal Reserve. Yet, one of them, the head of the all-important New York branch, just released a report which say the market is taking ZIRP possibilities very seriously - and so should those at the highest levels of the Fed. 

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FRBNY Liberty Street Blog The Zero Lower Bound Remains a Medium‑Term Risk
https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2025/07/the-zero-lower-bound-remains-a-medium-term-risk/

FOMC Transcript March 2007
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20070321meeting.pdf

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The world is supposed to be all over the "sell America" trade, so why is it only this one key currency is? The thing is now sticking out like a sore thumb as more and more pile onto "sell America" here without any corroboration at all. Even FX modelers are confused by this insistence. What happens when everyone is on one side of a transaction under false assumptions? It converges. Sometimes violently. 

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Bloomberg Misfiring Models Leave Wall Street Currency Traders Flying Blind
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-07/misfiring-models-leave-wall-street-currency-traders-flying-blind

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Is this the payback? The rate cuts aren't working and that can only mean more of them. The best current examples are to north and south of the US where rolling over has taken on a new sense of urgency, especially since both are, at the margins, a proxy for American demand.

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It was supposed to be one single out-of-control Wall Street bank. When authorities were forced to look into the matter, what they uncovered was a shocking. Not one but EVERYONE. Yet, after uncovering what was going on, the full astonishing scale, they never figured out WHY. And that was the whole thing, what the scandal said about a world that had already drastically changed. 

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Treasury Joint Report on the Government Securities Market (Jan 1992)
https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/276/joint-report-on-the-government-securities-Market-1992.pdf

LA Times Taming the Bond Buccaneers at Salomon Brothers : How Warren Buffet and friends swept up after the Salomon scandal, possible saving the firm from federal regulators furious after a decade of skuldggery [sic] on Wall Street.
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1992-02-16-tm-4654-story.html

SEC Chronology of Salomon Scandal
https://www.sechistorical.org/collection/papers/1990/1991_1016_ChronologySalomonT.pdf

Jay Powell Treasury Markets and the TMPG (Oct 2017)
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20171005a.htm

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Like last month, this June payroll report was taken one way in the mainstream while the details went entirely in the other direction. Headline was a beat and the unemployment rate stalled. Yet, the former was ironically a product of government jobs while the latter slid a tiny amount for ALL THE WRONG REASONS.

There is something going on in the money system with collateral. We've been covering bills and the latest data sheds more light on what is likely happening. It is something we've seen many times before. That's not a good sign. 

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Fedex is a global bellwether for good reason. What the company said about the economic environment at the start of Q3 was...nothing. But in choosing not to forecast anything, the company said a lot especially given the evidence that has come piling up. We haven't seen consumer spending and incomes like this in America since 2020. That's not a typo. Flat Beveridge. 

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Big moves in yields, especially at the front. While twos are making a move on their own, it's the very front at the first-in-line bills that draws our attention. Steepening has been given a boost by some ugly recent data from right where it counts - incomes and spending.

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AI shouldn't provoke fear and anxiety, it should raise expectations for regular 4-day workweek with 3-day weekends. Artificial Intelligence represents a potential major leap in labor productivity. The end result isn't a desolate hellscape which leaves everyone unemployed, it's instead something economics (small "e") is very familiar with. 

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