The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Peter Schiff on a 29,000 jobs miss, weak wage growth, a $132.6B trade deficit, Trump's inflation remark, and why bonds sold off anyway.

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Peter Schiff breaks down the September jobs report: just 29,000 jobs against an 85,000 estimate. July was revised back to negative 10,000 and August down to 133,000. Unemployment rose to 4.2%, private payrolls added 46,000, and average hourly earnings rose only 0.1%, the smallest monthly gain in more than five years, while August CPI rose 0.4%. Peter had forecast both the miss and the downward revisions on Tuesday's podcast.

Peter explains why the bond market sold off despite the weak report and softer August PCE data, even as the odds of an October rate hike fell sharply. The 10-year Treasury closed the week at 5.28% and the 30-year at 5.63%, which he calls classic bear market action. He also covers personal income rising 0.2% against spending up 0.9%, a 4.1% savings rate, and an August trade deficit of $132.6 billion, the fourth worst in US history, which he says shows tariffs have not reduced imports and that importers are the ones paying them.

On stocks, Peter notes the Nasdaq hit an intraday record while 147 stocks made new 52-week lows against 38 new highs on the week, breadth he compares to 1999-2000 and 1973. He responds to President Trump's interview comment that inflation will pay off the debt, arguing it amounts to a sell signal for bondholders, and disputes Trump's claim that he inherited inflation from Biden.

Peter reviews gold near $4,140, silver at $60.37 and the miners, Bitcoin near $84,500 and Strategy's Stretch trading back near par, and argues the data points to stagflation, with AI capital spending propping up GDP. He discusses the G7's 100 million barrel oil reserve release, mortgage rates he thinks could reach 8% this month, risks to housing, autos, credit and Fannie and Freddie, $40 trillion in debt at 5% interest, Janet Yellen's past comments on low rates, and Rick Santelli's final day at CNBC. He closes by urging listeners to buy the dip in gold and silver, with support near $4,000 and $60.

Chapters:

00:00 Bond Crisis Warning

01:02 September Jobs Shock

03:02 Revisions and Labor Details

06:22 Wages Lag Inflation

08:16 Bonds Sell Off Anyway

12:36 Income Spending PCE

15:47 Trade Deficit Tariffs

20:13 Stocks Ignore Rising Yields

26:48 Trump Inflation Pays Debt

28:06 Inflation Pays Debt Claim

29:02 Who Owns Inflation Blame

30:17 Bondholders Get Burned

31:20 Weekly Market Scorecard

31:49 Gold Silver Yield Paradox

34:13 Stagflation And AI Distortion

36:17 Bitcoin Strategy Stretch Update

38:35 Bond Vigilantes Take Over

40:21 Oil Reserves And Mortgage Shock

45:08 Debt Math And Crisis Setup

49:51 Midterms And Voter Reality

51:56 Buy Metals And Wrap Up

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Peter Schiff on record bond yields, a 12-year low in consumer confidence, the end of the 40-year refi era, and why gold is the last safe haven.

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Bond yields hit new highs on weak data, consumer confidence sank to a 12-year low, and Peter says the end game has arrived.

The 30-year Treasury touched 5.62% and the 10-year closed at 5.26%, two weeks after 5% was supposed to be the ceiling. What makes this week different is that bonds sold off on bad news: consumer confidence collapsed to 81.9, the lowest in 12 years and below the depths of the pandemic, job openings missed, and yields rose anyway. Peter's warning is direct: if Friday's jobs number is weak and bonds still fall, the orderly grind lower becomes a crash. Gold's $170 drop is the market getting this backwards. Money leaving bonds ends up in gold, the last safe haven standing.

The bigger story is housing. America is now in the worst quadrant, high debt and high rates, which it has never lived through. For 40 years mortgage rates only fell, from 18% in 1981 to 2.65% in 2021, and homeowners rode that wave with serial cash-out refis that turned the house into an ATM. At 7.4% and headed past 8%, that era is over: no more refis, no cash out, no wealth effect, with homes at five times income and down payments at 13.8%. Fannie and Freddie are down 75% while the government buys more mortgage bonds. Neither party will name a cut. Every crisis Peter has warned about is converging, and he says to get your plan B in order.

Chapters:

00:00 Bond Crash Warning

01:02 Yields Surge and Mortgages

02:59 Gold Dip and Safe Haven

07:11 Weak Data Ignored

13:21 Housing Market Cracks

14:48 Password Security Ad

16:00 High Debt High Rates Era

19:17 Housing Bubble Math

23:56 Refi Boom Ends

28:24 Home Prices Next Drop

31:30 Noom Weight Loss Pitch

33:07 GSE Stocks Get Crushed

35:50 Trump Hype And Dump

39:39 PSA Or Campaign Ad

42:41 Deficits Nobody Will Cut

47:59 Affordability Promises Backfire

50:08 Socialism Messaging Trap

52:12 AI Hope Versus Debt Crisis

56:02 Fed Out Of Tricks

56:43 Prepare For The Storm

57:28 Wrap Up And Plan B

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Peter Schiff on why 86% of the S&P is already in a bear market, the 1973 and 2000 parallels, 5% Treasury yields, and new IRS emails on his bank.

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Market breadth has only been this bad twice in 100 years, and both times the S&P 500 fell nearly 50%.

Peter Schiff opens with the relentless rise in long-term yields: the 10-year Treasury closed at 5.16%, the 30-year at 5.49%, and the five-year at 5.00%, while stocks shrug it off. Mortgages sit above 7% only because the Trump administration ordered Fannie and Freddie to buy, and Peter expects 8% regardless. Bond yields rose even as oil fell from $100 to $92, showing the bond market has decoupled from the Fed narrative. The S&P is 0.7% from a record, but the average stock is 19% below its high, 60% of stocks are in bear territory, and new lows outpaced new highs three to one. Peter compares this to January 1973 and early 2000, the only two precedents, both followed by roughly 49% declines. He also covers the Michigan sentiment drop to 48.1 and the hoarding psychology behind it, Bill Ackman's call to raise the inflation target, why rising yields are bullish for gold, and the Trump-Xi meeting that produced no commitments. The second half returns to Euro Pacific Bank: newly unredacted IRS emails reveal an MOU with OCIF and no answer when the IRS-CI chief asked what the bank did wrong, while the receiver has repaid 78 of roughly 3,500 customers in four years and paid himself over $850,000.

Chapters:

00:00 Breadth Crash Warning

00:59 Bond Yields Surge

04:40 Global Rates and Mortgages

07:37 Oil Link Breaks

11:01 Consumers and Hoarding

14:58 Markets Misread Gold

18:47 Hidden Bear Market Breadth

21:06 History Rhymes Again

23:21 Ackman and Inflation Target

29:15 China Summit and Tariffs

33:05 Bank Shutdown FOIA Fight

38:20 FOIA Fight With IRS

39:11 Settlement And New Disclosures

42:03 Press Conference Double Standard

43:46 Jim Lee Email Questions

47:10 MOU Proof Of Coordination

50:56 Unanswered Questions Expose Narrative

55:02 Publicity Stunt Motive

56:04 Portugal Freeze Fallout

57:23 Receivership Numbers Breakdown

01:04:40 Government Vs Free Market Rant

01:06:41 Congress Won't Act

01:07:41 Wrap Up And Investing Pitch

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Peter Schiff serves as Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Asset Management, LLC (“EPAM”), an SEC-registered investment adviser. The views and opinions expressed are those of Mr. Schiff as of the date of recording and may change without notice. Certain statements concerning historical events and regulatory matters reflect Mr. Schiff’s interpretation of the facts and information available to him.

Market and investment commentary is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. International investing involves additional risks, including currency, political, economic and regulatory risks.

For information regarding EPAM’s investment advisory services, please visit europac.com. Registration with the SEC does not imply a particular level of skill or training.

Peter Schiff on 22-year high yields, record diesel, McDonald's inflation warning, and Trump's claim he told Warsh how to vote.

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Peter Schiff reviews the rise in Treasury yields to multi-decade highs and what 5% rates would mean for interest on the $40 trillion national debt. He opens with a comment Donald Trump made after the Fed's 25 basis point hike: that he told Kevin Warsh he "might as well vote with the board." Peter argues that either Trump is lying or, if the conversation happened, the Fed chairman is clearing his votes with the president, and that Warsh should be asked directly at the next press conference.

He then turns to the bond market. The five-year auction cleared at 5.03%, the highest in just over 20 years; the 30-year reached 5.41%, a 22-year high, and the 10-year hit 5.12%. He expects the 10/30 spread, now under 30 basis points, to widen back toward 50 or more, and suggests shorting the 30-year against the 10-year. If the government pays 5% on $40 trillion, interest would run $2 trillion a year, about 35% of tax revenue and more than Social Security, with the debt growing by more than $3 trillion a year. He says stock investors still assume yields are near a top.

McDonald's stock fell about 5% after its CEO said inflation would stay elevated for "many more years," which Peter contrasts with Warsh's claim that expectations are anchored at 2%. He agrees with Warsh that growth does not cause inflation; loose monetary policy does.

Diesel set another record above $6.50 a gallon, near $10 in California. Peter argues a diesel export ban would cut production, and that drawing down the Strategic Petroleum Reserve leaves nothing for a real emergency.

On the midterms, he notes Democrats are now 65% favorites to take the Senate, with cost of living the top issue, and blames Trump rather than Biden for inflation, while the Gulf conflict looks to be worsening. He criticizes the White House for pulling credentials from CNN, Politico and MS Now, recounts Trump's reaction to his Fox & Friends appearance, and discusses California's lawsuit against Trump Media over selling early access to Trump's posts for $50,000 to $100,000 a month, which he calls insider information.

Peter closes with his Schiff Sovereign Plan B conference in Panama, which drew 130 to 140 attendees, and the story of his grandparents arriving through Ellis Island in 1902 and 1903 with no paperwork. His argument: the problem is not immigrants but the welfare state, and listeners should get their financial house in order, including gold, silver and TGold.

Chapters:

00:00 Diesel Hits Record Highs

00:52 Back From Panama Update

03:19 Trump Fed Comment Fallout

09:34 Treasury Yields Break 5%

12:42 Debt Interest Disaster Math

17:30 McDonalds Warns Inflation Years

22:20 Diesel Export Ban And SPR Risks

27:23 Midterms Senate Odds Shift

30:40 War And Media Crackdown Concerns

31:38 Press Ban Fallout

33:18 Fake News Double Standard

33:38 Fox Interview Backlash

35:54 Truth Social Insider Edge

37:12 Market Moving Posts Explained

41:13 GOP Hypocrisy Warning

43:06 Panama Plan B Conference

45:27 Why Panama Appeals

47:40 Gilded Age Tariff Myth

48:45 Open Immigration Then

55:21 Welfare State Border Reality

59:23 Plan B Portfolio Prep

59:51 Signing Off Anniversary

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#PeterSchiffShow #nationaldebt #inflation #federalreserve

The Fed hiked a quarter point. Peter explains why it will not stop the bond market, the dollar, or what is already coming for housing.

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The Fed finally hiked. Peter says the quarter point changes nothing about what is already in motion.

The Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points to 3.75 to 4 percent, a 90 percent probability going in and a unanimous vote coming out. Peter's read is that none of that signals resolve. The Fed did not hike because it wanted to. Months of tough talk had stopped working, the bond market had called the bluff, and the committee was left with a put-up-or-shut-up moment it could not dodge. So it did the smallest thing available, and Kevin Warsh gave the shortest press conference of his tenure on the way out.

A quarter point does not touch inflation heading for a four handle, not with oil above 100 dollars and diesel at record highs. The reason the Fed will not do more is not caution, it is capacity. A hike large enough to break inflation would break the economy and the Treasury's ability to fund itself.

The market understood immediately. The Dow closed down roughly 600 points after being green before the announcement, and the 10-year Treasury pushed back above 5 percent, which Peter calls a stepping stone to 6. He also covers Trump's demand for sub-1 percent rates, Scott Bessent's testimony, why 8 percent mortgages are coming, and why he expects gold to recover from this selloff quickly.

Chapters:

00:00 Fed Hikes Under Pressure

00:33 Markets Priced In the Move

03:46 Fed Cornered by Inflation Talk

06:38 Symbolic Hike and Market Fallout

10:11 Fiscal Policy and Real Inflation

21:31 Bond Yields Surge and Trump Reacts

32:28 Import Cold Turkey Fallout

33:40 Tariffs And China Surplus

35:08 Empty Shelves Economic Crash

36:18 Five Thousand Dollar Dividend

44:30 Bonds For Bombs And Meme Coins

53:32 Crypto Politics Gold Outlook Farewell

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#PeterSchiffShow #FedRateHike #Inflation #Gold #BondMarket

Fox dropped Peter for saying inflation would accelerate. August CPI proved it. Now an 88% rate hike, 19-year-high yields, and $100 oil.

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Peter got dropped from Fox News for saying inflation would accelerate. August CPI just proved him right.

Last December Peter went on Fox News and said prices were still rising and the rate of increase would accelerate. Trump called him a Trump hater; Fox stopped booking him. Today's CPI: up 0.4% for August, 3.4% year over year, core hotter than expected, PPI running 5.4%, oil back over $100. Consumer inflation expectations jumped to 4.6%. Everything he said would happen has happened, while the president told a Republican convention this week that prices are "rapidly going down."

Markets now put 88% odds on a rate hike next week, and Peter says the Fed has backed itself into a corner: Warsh has talked tough for so long that not hiking ends the Fed's credibility. But a symbolic 25 basis points "ain't gonna cut it" when inflation is rising faster than rates. The bond market already knows. The 10-year hit 4.97%, a 19-year high, the 30-year 5.35%, and Peter argues we're only six years into a bear market where 5% is nowhere near the top, with $40 trillion of debt to refinance. He also takes apart Trump's $5,000 "dividend" (a bribe paid from $4 trillion of new debt), calls gold dips a gift, and says Bitcoin's chart projects to zero.

Chapters:

00:00 Fox News Inflation Call

00:34 9/11 Reflections and Liberty

05:27 CPI Report and Fed Odds

14:16 Symbolic Hike Won’t Work

36:49 Metals and Bitcoin Check

37:51 Bitcoin Head and Shoulders

39:24 Why a Midterm Convention

44:55 The 5000 Dividend Claim

57:17 Inflation Jobs and Wrap Up

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Oil near $100, copper at a record, and the Fed still says 2%. Why the bond market breaks before the stock market does.

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Oil near $100, copper at a record, and 65 straight months above 2%. Peter says the bond market breaks first.

Brent touched $99.50 and copper hit an all-time high, and Peter's point is that the Fed's 2% target was already unreachable when oil was falling. Sixty-five months above target, and now the inputs are rising again. PPI Thursday and CPI Friday could both come in hot, and if they do, the damage shows up in bonds before it shows up in stocks. The market is pricing roughly 60% odds of a hike next week. Peter doesn't think the Fed will do it, and thinks 25 basis points wouldn't matter if it did, since the market would immediately start pricing the next one.

The rest is the bill coming due elsewhere. China just posted a record trade surplus, with August exports up 25% year over year and exports to the US up 34%, which is what happens when tariffs price Americans out of the best deal rather than moving production home. Peter got the receipt himself: the courier billed him for the tariff, then billed him again to process it. Meanwhile the hyperscalers that used to park cash in Treasuries are borrowing from the same pool the government needs, at a moment when interest costs already run $1.2 trillion a year.

Chapters:

00:00 Intro

00:39 War Shock Fuels Commodities

02:15 Copper vs Gold Real Money

06:11 Iran War Drags On

21:31 Tariffs and Trade War Fallout

30:18 Producers vs Consumers

31:50 Tariffs Shift Trade

35:52 Why Trade Wars Fail

43:37 Nickels Beat Treasuries

50:59 Fed, Inflation, and Wrap-Up

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#PeterSchiffShow #BondMarket #Inflation

Peter Schiff on the fake jobs beat, Trump's trade ultimatum, yields at 2007 highs, a 162% tariff bill, and why the Fed is the last buyer.

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The government says 162,000 jobs is a boom. Peter Schiff says it's a miss, and the bond market agrees.

The August jobs report came in at 162,000 against a 55,000 consensus, and Peter Schiff walks through why the number is worse than it looks. The birth-death model supplied 74,000 of those jobs, 45% of the total, on the assumption that new businesses were hiring. More than a third of the rest were waiters and bartenders. JOLTS and ADP both pointed the other way, last month was revised down, and real wages are falling. Kevin Hassett called it a boom; by most measures the economy is weaker than the day Trump took over.

Then Trump raised the stakes. He declared that America deserves the lowest interest rates in the world, then threatened to terminate all trade with any surplus country if the Fed doesn't cut. Peter's answer: the United States has never been a worse credit risk than it is right now. The 10-year hit 4.81% and the 30-year 5.28%, the highest since 2007. Japan has sold its Treasury holdings down from $1.3 trillion to $1.1 trillion, everyone who was buying is now selling, and the Fed will end up the buyer of last resort, which means inflation.

Peter also covers the week's real data: the July trade deficit at $88.6 billion, the biggest since March 2025; the $283 part that cost him 162% of the tariff once FedEx added its fee; diesel at a record above $5.80; Lutnick on semiconductors and Bastiat's candlemakers; Waller's rate comments sending gold back above $4,400; and an update on TGold's coming gold debit and credit cards.

Chapters:

00:00 No Buyers Left

00:29 Back In Puerto Rico

00:47 Jobs Report Miss

05:36 Real Wages Falling

06:09 Waiters And Bartenders

08:00 JOLTS ADP Contradiction

09:10 Birth Death Model

10:23 Hassett Boom Claim

13:27 Trump Rate Demands

15:20 Worst Credit Risk Ever

17:24 Trump Trade Ultimatum

24:07 Bessent Kudlow Interview

27:27 Yields Hit 2007 Highs

28:24 Yen And Japan Selling

31:14 Oil Diesel Record

33:15 Stocks Gold Silver

39:16 Trade Deficit Widens

42:02 My 162% Tariff Bill

45:37 Lutnick Semiconductors

48:33 Bastiat Candlemakers

51:08 Waller Rate Comments

53:39 Gold Pullback Gift

54:03 TGold Cards Update

1:00:24 Bitcoin And EuroPac

1:02:12 Labor Day Sign Off

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Warsh talks tough, buybacks double, a military option surfaces, gold falls $140, and boat prices collapse 50%.

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The Treasury doubled its bond buybacks this week. Then the talk turned to a military option for yields.

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh spent his most anticipated speech of the year talking tough about inflation, and Peter Schiff explains why none of it matters. Warsh accepted responsibility for 65 straight months above the 2% target, then never once mentioned the $40 trillion national debt or the Treasury intervention running underneath him. Money supply is expanding at roughly 6% annualized since he took the job. He is talking about putting out the fire while pouring the gasoline.

Underneath the speech, the policy escalated. Treasury buybacks already doubled from $2 billion to $4 billion, with roughly a trillion in the general fund available to extend them, shortening the average maturity of the debt and leaving the government more exposed to the rate hikes markets are now pricing. And in a Fox News interview on that same intervention, a military option for lowering bond yields was raised.

Peter also covers the week's real data: gold down $140, silver reversing from nearly $71, a Chicago PMI collapse to 47.1 that was the biggest downside miss in eleven years, and a boat market where prices have fallen 50% and lenders are taking the keys, a Fed-made boom and bust he argues housing is about to repeat.

Chapters:

00:00 Inflation Firestorm

00:37 Boatcast Setup

01:02 Warsh Speech Breakdown

04:12 Debt And Twist Ignored

08:10 Forward Guidance Critique

11:19 Dual Mandate Tradeoffs

12:46 Money Supply Matters

13:56 Hawkish Talk And Markets

18:50 Trump Military Option

20:01 Canada Tariffs Fallout

27:53 Market Wrap Gold Bitcoin

31:46 Strategy Dilution Spiral

32:42 Dollar Yen Bonds Warning

34:11 Manufacturing Digital Shift

39:03 Boating Bubble Bust

45:28 Boat Costs Force Selling

48:13 West Marine Bankruptcy

53:02 Buyer Market Repos Risk

56:30 Boat Ownership Reality

57:09 Closing Politics Plug

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#BondMarket #FederalReserve

Peter Schiff breaks down the Treasury's panic move to rescue the bond market, the $40 trillion debt milestone, and gold's $185 reversal day.

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The Treasury just doubled its bond buybacks. Peter Schiff says that's the government admitting the bond market is broken.

On the same day the national debt topped $40 trillion, the Treasury announced it is doubling its long-term bond buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion... buying the bonds everybody else is selling, and funding it by issuing more short-term debt. Peter calls it what it is: a panic move, a Hail Mary to suppress rising yields after the 30-year hit 5.3%, its highest in over 19 years. Refinancing debt locked in at a 3.44% average coupon with 4% T-bills makes no financial sense, which is exactly why it's happening... the government is scared, not stupid.

The market rendered its verdict immediately. Gold reversed off a $185 rally to close above $4,500, silver cleared $66, and the miners surged 8-12%, while hawkish FOMC minutes were shrugged off entirely. Peter explains why this Treasury version of Operation Twist forces the Fed to follow with real QE... a program that will have to dwarf 2008's... why Bitcoin's pop above $70,000 is built on hope, and why the housing data shows the panic is justified.

Chapters:

00:00 Treasury Panic Move

01:05 Bond Yields Hit New Highs

02:58 Debt Explosion Politics

07:00 Treasury Buyback Twist

10:23 QE Next And Fed Cornered

16:04 Hawkish Minutes Gold Surge

24:03 Markets React Unevenly

24:20 Dollar Drops Oil Jumps

25:08 Fed Inflation Bind

26:30 Debt Era Comparison

27:40 Jobs Data Media Spin

29:17 Bitcoin Versus Metals

31:19 Housing Slump Mortgages

33:59 Tariffs Canada Trade

37:50 Buybacks Won't Work

42:26 QE Addiction Ahead

44:34 Boat Update Farewell

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