Doug Casey's Take

Doug Casey and Matt Smith on the gap between the flash and the bang. The war in the Middle East started February 28th, the Strait of Hormuz is choked, and Saudi Arabia and Yemen are now at war, yet most Americans still ask "What war?" Spot oil in the North Sea is $136 while the futures market says somewhere in the $90s. Why are markets disconnected from reality, and how long before the bang? Plus Saudi Arabia and MBS, Egypt, Israel fatigue, Indonesia's gas lines, AI and the new rust belt, the Fort Hood execution, and why Doug says "the shit will really have hit the fan" anytime between tomorrow and a couple of years from now.

Find us at https://crisisinvesting.comAsk Doug a question: https://crisisinvesting.com (click "Ask Doug") See Doug at the New Orleans Investment Conference, Oct 28-31: https://neworleansconference.com/casey-2/

00:00 Welcome And New Orleans 02:02 Worse Than The Worst Case 05:11 $136 Oil On The Ground 06:52 Markets You Can't Trust 10:36 Refineries And Fuel Shortages 13:03 Saudi Arabia Is Next 17:36 Egypt's Ticking Time Bomb 20:50 Israel Fatigue 26:04 Indonesia's Gas Lines 31:07 We Saw The Flash. Where's The Bang? 33:33 Rates, Bonds, And A Bifurcated America 36:09 AI And The New Rust Belt 39:37 Billionaires And Their Bodyguards 41:57 Kunstler And Agreeing To Disagree 44:37 Tankers In The Strait 47:36 Books: Vikings And The Mandibles 51:06 Overproduction Of Elites 52:33 Trump's $5,000 Video 54:09 The Fort Hood Execution 1:05:59 Press Secretary And Guilfoyle 1:09:23 Monica's Podcast 1:13:21 Wrap Up

Novelist and essayist James Howard Kunstler (The Long Emergency, the World Made by Hand series) joins Doug Casey and Matt Smith. Kunstler expects prosecutions after the midterms, starting with John Brennan's grand jury appearance. He also says the US military won't let radicals take the levers of power, and that the country has slid from high trust to no trust. Doug and Kunstler clash over the Iran war. Also: Europe tottering, why US shale is more fragile than it looks, what Kunstler got wrong in The Long Emergency, Israel and Gaza, Ukraine and NATO, and the deep state.

Kunstler's Substack: https://www.kunstler.com Find us at https://crisisinvesting.com New Orleans Investment Conference, Oct 28-31: https://neworleansconference.com/casey-2/

00:00 Welcome James Howard Kunstler 01:08 Will Anyone Face Justice? 07:11 Brennan Before A Grand Jury 13:39 Bondi, Bongino, And Silence 18:42 Will The Military Step In? 22:35 Two Flavors Of Authoritarianism 26:14 Civil War And A Trump Bet 28:54 Europe Is Tottering 31:10 Iran, Oil, And Shale 37:31 Doug Pushes Back On Iran 41:43 Islam And Europe's Future 45:39 Invasion, Hochul, And New York 49:55 Where Are The Men Of Quality? 51:41 Trump The Paradox 55:44 Markets, Bonds, And The Carry Trade 1:01:11 Kunstler On Gold 1:02:58 The Long Emergency, 20 Years On 1:05:15 From High Trust To No Trust 1:07:59 Half The Country Is Insane 1:12:13 A Steak Of Justice 1:15:13 Is Trump An Authoritarian? 1:18:37 Israel, Gaza, And Tucker 1:24:39 The Iran Blockade 1:26:08 Ukraine And Leaving NATO 1:28:11 Brennan And The Deep State 1:31:54 Wrap Up

Find us at www.crisisinvesting.com After a brief hiatus, Doug and Matt discuss Trump's escalating rhetoric about Iran potentially nuking U.S. cities and argue the U.S. bears historical responsibility for the conflict, citing oil interests, the CIA-backed coup against Mossadegh, the Shah, and the 1979–1980 embassy crisis. Doug says Trump's actions have worsened the situation, advocates a public apology and possible indemnity to de-escalate, and predicts Trump will not complete his term due to impeachment, the 25th Amendment, assassination, or broader instability. They debate nuclear delivery realities, warn that antagonizing adversaries invites catastrophe, and frame current conflicts—Middle East shipping chokepoints, Houthi-Saudi fighting, and Russia-Ukraine maritime attacks—as kindling for World War III. They also cover French unrest, demographic and religious shifts, bond-market stress, a potential tech-bubble burst, and conclude by favoring energy and mining stocks. 00:00 Back From Hiatus 00:28 Trump Iran Nukes Talk 03:07 Why Iran Hates US 05:45 Apology Not Escalation 07:55 Trump Term Prediction 09:43 Nuclear Delivery Reality 14:33 World War Three Path 15:12 Saudi Yemen Flashpoint 20:15 Chokepoints And Shipping 26:05 Empire Bases Vulnerable 27:52 Elections And Dissidents 30:36 Islam And Instability 31:52 France Protests Breakdown 36:46 Bond Market To Collapse 39:43 Fourth Turning Theory 41:22 Worst President Forecast 43:05 Wrap Up And Investing

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Doug and Matt discuss escalating Yemen-Houthi conflict impacts, including disruption of Saudi oil infrastructure and potential wider geopolitical fallout as oil supplies to Europe tighten and fuel prices rise. They pivot to U.S. policy and market fragility, criticizing short-term political decision-making (including possible diesel export bans), warning about deficits, rising rates, and a looming financial crisis, while outlining a defensive investment stance favoring gold, agriculture, and energy. They debate AI fear narratives as regulatory capture, question returns on massive AI capital spending, and consider state intervention if major firms fail, noting cheaper Chinese models undercut U.S. frontier labs. Viewer Q&A covers taking state money as a moral dilemma, risk management without stop-losses in illiquid resource stocks, prospects for conflict in Latin America vs. Africa/Middle East, evaluating moral character, Botswana's diamond dependence, legal system critiques, offshore vs. onshore precious-metals storage, private deal drawbacks, and future drone warfare shifting to swarms and eventually nanotechnology.

00:00 News and Viewer Qs

00:08 Houthis and Saudi Setback

06:03 Oil Shock and Markets

08:22 Diesel Export Ban Fallout

10:02 Trade Threats and Politics

13:25 Rates Debt and Bear Case

15:15 AI Fear and Regulation

18:35 China Models and Bubble Risk

21:29 Taking Money from State

24:52 Managing Trades Without Stops

27:25 Wars Latin America Outlook

28:14 Testing Character in Relationships

34:19 Botswana and Diamond Risk

35:59 Legal System as Slavery

37:02 Battle Bank vs Offshore Vaults

38:19 Private Deals Pros and Cons

40:04 Drones Swarms and Nanobots

44:11 Wrap Up and Italy Trip

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Doug speaking at New Orleans Investment Conference: https://neworleansconference.com/casey-2/

Doug and Matt reflect on the 25th anniversary of 9/11, arguing the official narrative remains unconvincing, citing unresolved issues like Building 7 and the lack of thorough investigation, and linking this to widespread public distrust in government. They discuss escalating Middle East conflict, including Houthi territorial gains in Yemen, threats to shipping near Bab-el-Mandeb, attacks on Saudi infrastructure, and U.S. strikes on Iranian-linked tankers, while noting oil prices and market fragility amid potential rate hikes; Doug discloses he has shorted Nasdaq. They compare alleged state cover-ups to the Charlie Kirk assassination and other disputed events, then address viewer questions on AI-driven job losses, potential debt defaults, protecting oneself via assets and residency abroad, central bank gold moves (including Argentina shipping gold to London), meetups and conferences, precious-metal storage jurisdictions, and Doug's negative view of Nike as an investment.

00:00 9/11 Anniversary Reflections

02:08 Doubting the Official Story

03:35 Building 7 and Media Oddities

07:45 Middle East Escalation and Oil

12:43 Charlie Kirk Conspiracy Questions

15:34 Trust Collapse and State Power

18:20 Trump 5K Proposal Fallout

23:08 Renaming Hormuz and Narcissism

25:27 AI Job Losses Market Impact

27:27 UBI via Tax Credits

28:57 Bribing Voters Warning

30:19 Default Fallout Prep

31:36 Hard vs Soft Default

33:28 Escape Political Risk

34:05 Central Banks Move Gold

35:53 DC Meetups and Events

39:13 Uruguay Free Zone Idea

40:06 Argentina Gold to London

44:25 Where to Store Metals

46:42 Nike Stock and Woke Brands

50:21 Weekend Sign Off

Matt and Doug discuss the rapid buildout of AI data centers, local backlash, and Doug's view that the frenzy reflects an unprecedented stock-market "hyper-bubble" led by major tech and AI firms. Doug argues most data-center capacity is used to surveil and influence citizens more than to "manipulate atoms" in the real world, making it a threat to personal freedom, and notes the trend runs counter to technology historically becoming smaller, cheaper, and more dispersed. They explore whether AI could become "alive" and indistinguishable from humans (via the Turing test idea), cite concerns from an Anthropic researcher about self-improving AI, and focus on innovation driven by "love and war," including robots, sex bots, and drone-heavy modern warfare, warning of major societal disruption regardless of outcomes.

00:00 AI Data Center Backlash 01:28 Tech Bubble Warning 04:30 What Data Centers Do 05:21 Surveillance And Control 07:15 Tech Trends Reversed 09:13 Trillions And Centralization 12:00 Bubble Predictions Ahead 13:56 AI Becoming Alive 16:42 Overlords And Lab Fears 17:58 Love And War Robots 21:09 Drones And Autonomy 25:08 Society Upended Fast 31:00 Utopia Versus Dystopia 35:08 Milestones To Watch 37:02 Closing Thoughts

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Doug and Matt discuss the Lindsay Clancy case, noting reports of an 11–1 jury split favoring a temporary-insanity outcome and debating punishment versus lifelong institutionalization, deterrence, and an anarcho-capitalist justice model focused on restitution rather than "debt to society." They react to a Gallup poll showing 89% of Americans believe government corruption is widespread and consider implications for institutional trust and social stability. Viewer questions cover backlash to AI data centers (noise, surveillance fears, and a potential trillion-dollar FOMO-driven bubble), hostility to flock cameras, Doug's limited debate history and dislike of formal debates, and the likely futility and escalation risks of "D-Day" secondary sanctions on Iran. They also discuss Roman emperors, war's societal effects and drone casualties in Ukraine, ETF versus individual mining-stock exposure, Argentina and the Falklands amid Milei's moves, race tensions, and a dismissed scenario of Argentina attacking Brazil.

00:00 Case Overview

02:35 Insanity Or Punishment

03:52 Ancap Justice System

07:43 Corruption Poll Shock

10:50 AI Data Center Backlash

16:28 Debate Team Memories

19:31 Iran Sanctions Fallout

27:14 Wine With Emperors

29:19 Trump Personality Critique

29:58 Wars And Male Casualties

31:05 Drone Warfare In Ukraine

32:02 Race And Western Decline

33:28 ETFs Versus Stock Picks

36:42 Falklands And Milei

41:44 NATO And Demographics Debate

44:07 China Brazil Corridor Fears

49:25 Weekend Wrap And Signoff

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Find @michaelyon at https://substack.com/@michaelyon

Michael Yon the "Great Game": Chokepoints, Hydraulic Warfare, and Where Conflict Spreads Next

The host interviews Michael Yon from Japan as he prepares for his baby's imminent birth, briefly discussing Japanese traditions around the kiri (paulownia) tree, then shifts to geopolitics and Yon's view of a global "great game" centered on routes, resources, and information warfare. Yon says the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed and argues conflicts are interconnected, predicting flashpoints including the Falklands/Malvinas involving Argentina, possible spillover into Brazil and Uruguay, and wider fighting affecting Europe and the North Sea. He emphasizes hydraulic warfare, describing how dams on the Nile (GERD in Ethiopia), Euphrates (Atatürk Dam), Tigris (Mosul Dam), and China's Three Gorges could be used for famine and destruction. He also discusses Tibet/Nepal flood events, chokepoints like Suez, Gibraltar/Ceuta, Bab-el-Mandeb, Panama, and Malacca, plus language, migration, intoxicants, music, demographic, and economic warfare.

00:00 Morning Intro in Japan

00:32 Baby Due Soon

01:38 Kiri Tree Tradition

04:16 Hormuz and Global War

05:48 South Atlantic Flashpoints

08:15 Nepal Disaster and Tibet

13:24 Hydraulic Warfare Explained

15:13 Egypt and the Nile Dams

29:45 Turkey Iraq and China Dams

34:28 Prayer Wheel Spycraft

36:35 Local Flood Risks and Drought

38:53 Ceuta Flashpoint

39:32 Gibraltar Chokepoint History

41:16 Phosphate Power Politics

41:43 Global Chokepoints Strategy

45:05 Florida And Brazil Predictions

48:22 Ceuta Migrants As Weapon

51:32 Language Warfare Morocco

56:27 Books Burned And Forecasts

59:17 Safe Havens And Zionism

01:02:49 Cults And Empire Origins

01:05:51 Warfare Taxonomy Explained

01:12:36 Corporate Superstructure Wrap

01:15:01 Closing Thanks And Anecdote

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Read Dr. Danger Zone by Kolja Spöri at https://www.amazon.com/dp/3903713023

Doug and Matt interview elite traveler Kolja Spöri about his new book, Dr. Danger Zone, a collection of 25 highlight stories from a lifetime of travel to remote and dangerous places, paired with his on-the-ground conclusions that often contradict mainstream narratives. Kolja recounts driving Russia's northern ice roads in extreme cold, visiting conflict zones and politically sensitive regions, and seeking out famous "watering hole" hotels, including Haiti's Hotel Oloffson. The conversation shifts to his views on Turkey's development under Erdoğan, increasing surveillance and political repression in Western Europe—especially Germany—and his belief that Europe is being pushed toward a wider war with Russia while migration is used as a weapon against European civilization. They also discuss his Libya trip during the Arab Spring, his connections that enabled access to places like Chechnya, the FARC, and Mindanao, a rap song made about his life, and his Formula 1 sponsorship career.

00:00 Meet Kolja Spöri

01:09 Inside Dr Danger Zone

04:33 Languages and Turkey

07:48 Europe Turning Point

10:24 War With Russia Fears

15:10 Migration and Culture Clash

21:32 Ice Road Adventure

25:17 Haiti Hotel Legends

27:41 Goma Danger Factors

30:22 Entering Libya During Spring

32:11 Armed Kids Reality

32:51 Planning Warzone Access

33:36 Libya Benghazi Insights

35:16 Borders And Breakups

36:40 Chechnya To FARC

39:00 Mindanao And Militants

41:20 Rap Tribute Breakdown

45:31 Karabakh And Azerbaijan

47:15 Formula One Backstory

49:05 Next Chapter Reflections

50:13 Book Plug And Farewell

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Find Bill at https://substack.com/@cgpodcast

The U.S. Military Is a Trillion-Dollar Paper Tiger—Drones, Carriers, and Strategic Failure

The hosts interview retired U.S. Army officer and military historian Bill Buppert, fellow at the Libertarian Institute and host of the Chasing Ghosts podcast, about U.S. military shortcomings and strategic failures since 1945. Buppert argues the Pentagon fields expensive "exquisite platforms" that are unfit for 21st-century peer conflict, citing lost influence in the Middle East and Africa and recurring defeats or stalemates in Iraq and Afghanistan. He critiques procurement and consolidation after the 1993 "Last Supper," and highlights troubled systems including the Zumwalt, Littoral Combat Ship, Ford-class EMALS, aircraft carriers, and the F-35's low readiness rates. He emphasizes the revolution of cheap FPV/UAV warfare, salvo competition in air defense, depleted munitions stockpiles (including Stingers), limited U.S. homeland missile defense, and vulnerabilities such as container-launched drones. The conversation also covers Ukraine's prospects against Russia, NATO red lines, Iran's terrain and history, and the importance of considering moral injury in war.

00:00 Meet Bill Buppert

01:52 Paper Tiger Pentagon

04:56 Iraq War Blowback

06:24 Rakes and Stupidity

10:22 Bureaucracy and Budgets

12:05 Navy Procurement Fails

14:05 Carrier and EMALS Risks

18:49 Drones Change Warfare

24:13 Defense Industry Monopoly

27:20 Salvo Competition IAMD

31:46 Carriers vs China Math

36:28 F-35 Readiness Disaster

39:56 Homeland Missile Defense Limits

42:58 Smuggled Nukes and Drones

44:22 Homeland Attack Scenarios

46:06 Civil Defense Blind Spot

47:12 Empire Mindset and 9/11

48:25 Bring Policy Home

51:14 Bureaucracy and Defense Waste

53:07 Drones Change Warfare

54:43 Why COIN Fails

56:58 Ukraine Forecast and NATO

59:57 Iran Nukes and Regional Power

01:08:09 Homeschooling and Trades

01:11:29 Iran Terrain and History

01:14:12 Moral Injury and Farewell