Doug Casey's Take

Find us at www.crisisinvesting.com

Find Bill at https://substack.com/@cgpodcast

The U.S. Military Is a Trillion-Dollar Paper Tiger—Drones, Carriers, and Strategic Failure

The hosts interview retired U.S. Army officer and military historian Bill Buppert, fellow at the Libertarian Institute and host of the Chasing Ghosts podcast, about U.S. military shortcomings and strategic failures since 1945. Buppert argues the Pentagon fields expensive "exquisite platforms" that are unfit for 21st-century peer conflict, citing lost influence in the Middle East and Africa and recurring defeats or stalemates in Iraq and Afghanistan. He critiques procurement and consolidation after the 1993 "Last Supper," and highlights troubled systems including the Zumwalt, Littoral Combat Ship, Ford-class EMALS, aircraft carriers, and the F-35's low readiness rates. He emphasizes the revolution of cheap FPV/UAV warfare, salvo competition in air defense, depleted munitions stockpiles (including Stingers), limited U.S. homeland missile defense, and vulnerabilities such as container-launched drones. The conversation also covers Ukraine's prospects against Russia, NATO red lines, Iran's terrain and history, and the importance of considering moral injury in war.

00:00 Meet Bill Buppert

01:52 Paper Tiger Pentagon

04:56 Iraq War Blowback

06:24 Rakes and Stupidity

10:22 Bureaucracy and Budgets

12:05 Navy Procurement Fails

14:05 Carrier and EMALS Risks

18:49 Drones Change Warfare

24:13 Defense Industry Monopoly

27:20 Salvo Competition IAMD

31:46 Carriers vs China Math

36:28 F-35 Readiness Disaster

39:56 Homeland Missile Defense Limits

42:58 Smuggled Nukes and Drones

44:22 Homeland Attack Scenarios

46:06 Civil Defense Blind Spot

47:12 Empire Mindset and 9/11

48:25 Bring Policy Home

51:14 Bureaucracy and Defense Waste

53:07 Drones Change Warfare

54:43 Why COIN Fails

56:58 Ukraine Forecast and NATO

59:57 Iran Nukes and Regional Power

01:08:09 Homeschooling and Trades

01:11:29 Iran Terrain and History

01:14:12 Moral Injury and Farewell

Find us at www.crisisinvesting.com

Doug and Matt answer viewer questions on which dystopian story best fits the West today, focusing on expanding surveillance tech and a drift toward "1984," plus a nod to a second dystopia involving "Soma." They discuss the U.S. pressuring the Netherlands via the MATCH Act to curb ASML chip-tool sales to China, arguing there's no legitimate state role and warning it could damage ASML and supply chains. On reserve currency, Doug says paper currency is a government substitute for money and predicts a return to gold. They debate China's "communist" label, claiming the party intervenes less than often assumed and noting high Chinese savings versus low U.S. savings. They cover the Japanese carry trade, U.S. debt, depression risk, preparation advice for a 31-year-old leaving the military and a 44-year-old permaculture worker, draft speculation, Cyprus investing timing, AI/AGI risks, retirement income strategies, and priorities for small monthly investing, ending with an Einstein interest-rate joke and a teaser for an upcoming Bill Buppert interview.

00:00 Viewer Questions Return

01:11 Surveillance State Fears

03:58 Chip War and ASML

06:53 Reserve Currency and Gold

09:08 Is China Really Communist

11:50 Japan Carry Trade Risks

14:17 Starting Prep at 31

17:14 Generalist or Specialist

19:02 Draft Anxiety and Independence

22:29 Cyprus Investing Outlook

24:15 AI Agents Gone Rogue

25:21 Is AI Becoming Life

27:14 Investing Around AI Risk

28:39 Boats Planes And Expat Taxes

30:29 Critical Metals Watchlist

31:56 Retirement Income Portfolio

33:35 Small Budget Priorities

35:54 Robot Liability Questions

38:32 Antifragile Society Debate

42:06 Wrap Up And Interest Rates Joke

44:14 Next Guest Announcement

Find us at www.crisisinvesting.com

The hosts discuss the death of Cambridge professor Jason Arday, describing him as Cambridge's youngest Black full professor and alleging his career was built on fabricated claims and widespread plagiarism, with media framing his death as a tragedy potentially linked to press scrutiny. They argue plagiarism and DEI bureaucracy are widespread in academia and connect this to the student-debt crisis, citing 9 million borrowers in default and noting shifts from COVID-era payment freezes to paused collection tools. The conversation broadens to rising consumer debt, buy-now-pay-later growth, and U.S. fiscal strain, including $1.3 trillion annual interest expense and $40 trillion owed, warning of defaults or bailouts. They also cover migrant pressure on Spain's Ceuta and recommend Jean Raspail's The Camp of the Saints. Finally, they debate Peter Diamandis' "universal high income" optimism amid AI/robotics and conclude with bullish moves in small-cap resource stocks and extreme commodity undervaluation versus equities.

00:00 Jason Arday Death

00:56 Fraud And Plagiarism

02:35 Media Reaction Debate

04:34 Academia DEI Bloat

06:14 Student Loan Defaults

08:47 Debt And Deflation Fears

11:23 Ceuta Migrant Crisis

13:47 Camp Of The Saints

15:35 Diamandis High Income

19:41 Robots And Scarcity

21:52 Resource Stocks Rally

24:31 Wrap Up And Q&A

War Expands, Trump's Security Fears, and the Case for Commodities as AI Accelerates

The speakers discuss the ongoing war and recent reports of Trump appearing fearful, citing images of him golfing behind concertina wire with air-defense systems and an earlier escape in a catering vehicle, alongside a $10,000 bet that he will not finish his term. They warn of potential Iranian retaliation and domestic blowback, arguing MANPADS and simple, hobby-like drones could be used against U.S. targets, and note a pattern of attacks on energy infrastructure, including Libyan oil facilities. They advocate owning gold and commodity/resource stocks, promoting a "Crisis Investing" portfolio and criticizing AI/chip stocks as a bubble. The conversation also covers alleged U.S. attacks on boats at sea, rumors of low morale and cover-ups on U.S. carriers, reflections on My Lai and Seymour Hersh, objections to Trump naming the Kennedy Center after himself, and optimism about SpaceX, AI, robots, and a coming productivity surge despite looming financial risks.

00:00 Trump on the Run 01:10 The $10K Trump Bet 02:42 Golfing Behind Wire 04:03 Iran Blowback Fears 05:32 Homemade Drones Threat 07:57 War Hits Energy Markets 08:59 Crisis Investing Picks 10:55 Drug Boats and Rogue Ops 12:47 Drug War Counterargument 14:27 Carrier Suicides and Mutiny 16:19 Navy Logistics Breakdown 19:05 Society Jobs and Colleges 20:57 My Lai and Military Rot 23:43 Kennedy Center Naming Row 27:05 Elon SpaceX and AI Future 31:45 Singularity vs Collapse 34:48 Be a Creator Not Consumer 35:47 Lifeboat Education and Assets 37:01 Closing Thoughts

Find us at www.crisisinvesting.com

Find Col. Douglas MacGregor at www.macgregorwarrior.substack.com

https://www.youtube.com/@macgregorwarriordiplomacy

and https://nationalconversation.org/

No Existential Threat from China/Russia—America's Real Crisis Is Internal

In a wide-ranging discussion, Col. Douglas MacGregor argues there are no existential military threats to the United States from China or Russia, contending the most serious dangers come from instability and organized crime in Mexico and the Caribbean Basin, weakened social cohesion, mass migration, and loss of American identity. He criticizes U.S. and NATO leadership over Ukraine, predicts Russia will ultimately defeat Ukraine, and calls Ukraine a "zombie state," while disputing portrayals of Putin as Hitler. MacGregor says defending U.S. borders and reducing overseas "forward presence" are essential in an age of precision missiles, and warns financial manipulation is postponing an inevitable economic reckoning driven by massive public and private debt. He claims the U.S. government is acting against Americans' interests, describes "Israel first" influence in Washington, and expects renewed action against Iran that could exhaust remaining U.S. capacity, while forecasting major geopolitical realignments in the Middle East.

00:00 Biggest Threats Today

01:40 No Military Existential Threat

04:17 Ukraine War Reality Check

05:34 Putin Hitler Narrative

06:14 Son Visits Russia

08:22 Why Russia Moves Slowly

11:30 Ukraine as Zombie State

12:49 Border Security Focus

15:15 End Expeditionary Warfare

17:33 Demographics and Migration

18:19 Army on the Border

20:30 American Identity Erosion

23:08 Immigration and Prosperity

24:46 Europe Identity Rebound

30:35 Assimilation or Collapse

31:55 Scarcity and Education

40:29 Government Not Ours

41:12 Israel First Policies

45:19 Rural Urban Civil Strife

48:20 Hybrid American Identity

49:20 Executive Power Creep

50:01 Historic Strongmen Examples

52:48 Trump and Donor Control

55:04 Corruption and Cromwell Fix

56:12 Midterms and ICE Backlash

58:10 Scarcity and Revolution Risks

01:00:52 Institutional Decay and Youth

01:05:31 Debt Reckoning and Vacuum

01:10:40 Iran War Paths and Alliances

01:17:02 Gaza as Regional Catalyst

01:18:02 Where to Follow MacGregor

01:19:08 Military Reform and Four Stars

01:24:57 National Conversation Closing

Find us at www.crisisinvesting.com

Ceuta Migrant Surge, Fauci Senate Testimony, DEI in Nolan's The Odyssey, and Escalation Toward World War III Matt and Doug discuss a sudden influx of about 49,000 Moroccans into Spain's small enclave of Ceuta, questioning how the territory can house and feed them, whether NGOs and Moroccan authorities facilitated the crossing, and how Spain or the EU could respond given asylum rules and limited enforcement. They compare the event to past mass-migration episodes in Europe and the U.S. The conversation shifts to Anthony Fauci's Senate testimony, Rand Paul's questioning, Biden's blanket pardon, and allegations of profiteering and lack of accountability. They then review controversy around Nolan's film The Odyssey, arguing DEI casting choices may have been used subversively while still praising parts of the movie. They also cover U.S. border-device searches and debate whether expanding conflicts around Iran, attacks on energy infrastructure, and U.S. involvement indicate a slide toward World War III, including nuclear or cyber escalation.

00:00 Ceuta Migrant Surge 02:24 Can Spain Stop It

04:40 History and Parallels 09:06 Was It Organized

12:36 Spillover to US Politics 14:10 Fauci Senate Showdown

18:38 Nolan Odyssey DEI Debate

27:03 TSA Phone Wipe Case

28:40 Iran Conflict World War Risk

36:15 Wrap Up and Listener Questions

Find us at www.crisisinvesting.com

Ceuta Migrant Surge, Fauci Senate Testimony, DEI in Nolan's The Odyssey, and Escalation Toward World War III Matt and Doug discuss a sudden influx of about 49,000 Moroccans into Spain's small enclave of Ceuta, questioning how the territory can house and feed them, whether NGOs and Moroccan authorities facilitated the crossing, and how Spain or the EU could respond given asylum rules and limited enforcement. They compare the event to past mass-migration episodes in Europe and the U.S. The conversation shifts to Anthony Fauci's Senate testimony, Rand Paul's questioning, Biden's blanket pardon, and allegations of profiteering and lack of accountability. They then review controversy around Nolan's film The Odyssey, arguing DEI casting choices may have been used subversively while still praising parts of the movie. They also cover U.S. border-device searches and debate whether expanding conflicts around Iran, attacks on energy infrastructure, and U.S. involvement indicate a slide toward World War III, including nuclear or cyber escalation.

00:00 Ceuta Migrant Surge 02:24 Can Spain Stop It

04:40 History and Parallels 09:06 Was It Organized

12:36 Spillover to US Politics 14:10 Fauci Senate Showdown

18:38 Nolan Odyssey DEI Debate

27:03 TSA Phone Wipe Case

28:40 Iran Conflict World War Risk

36:15 Wrap Up and Listener Questions

Find us at www.crisisinvesting.com

Doug and Matt discuss headlines and subscriber questions, starting with a survey claiming 30% of Americans admit to shoplifting and what that says about social trust, morality, and societal decline. They talk about New York's worsening conditions, Trump's announced Saudi nuclear deal and subsequent reversal, and a House-passed NDAA provision (Section 219) calling for deeper US-Israel military/intelligence integration, which they argue signals late-stage empire and foreign influence via AIPAC. They critique Trump's "golden age" claims, note rising yields and escalating Middle East and Ukraine-Russia risks, and comment on Trump family wealth. Q&A topics include Doug's favorite opera (Wagner, Gershwin), sci-fi recommendations (golden-age authors; The Diamond Age), whether digital assets/stablecoins can prolong the debt cycle, a film about vigilantism and mass migration, coal markets and coal's importance, Israel's actions and Gaza/Lebanon, and the possibility of deflation alongside inflation using entropy concepts.

00:00 Shoplifting Shock Stat

01:17 Thieves and Morality

03:58 Luxury Beliefs Debate

04:57 New York Backslide

06:53 Saudi Nuclear Deal

10:05 Israel Military Merger

14:17 America as an Idea

14:59 Trump Golden Age Clip

17:05 War Fears and Disillusion

19:27 Trump Family Windfall

20:30 Subscriber Opera Question

21:16 Wagner and Gershwin

22:33 Sci Fi Reading Picks

24:59 Debt Bubble and Stablecoins

30:19 Vigilante Citizen Talk

33:15 Coal Markets Explained

36:33 Israel Influence and Gaza

40:58 Econophysics and Deflation

45:19 Weekend Sign Off

Find us at www.crisisinvesting.com

Matt and Doug discuss a proposed Trump "$1 gold coin," calling it inappropriate for a sitting president and a sign of "end-stage empire," comparing it to Rome's shift to leaders' faces on coinage. They also cover a plan to sell early access to Trump's Truth Social posts for $100,000/month amid allegations of stock front-running, plus a $500,000-entry private D.C. club tied to Trump's son as legalized influence peddling. The conversation shifts to escalating U.S.-Iran conflict risks, possible boots-on-the-ground odds, Israel's role, parallels to Iraq/WMD claims, and the financial strain of missile-heavy warfare. They argue oil and gold should rise, criticize claims about U.S. gold reserves, note European sentiment turning against the U.S., discuss surveillance "Flock" cameras, disappointment over lack of major prosecutions, market confusion, and potential opportunities in undervalued oil and dividend-paying gold stocks.

00:00 Trump Coin Controversy 04:28 Truth Social Paywall Scheme

06:24 Iran War Fears 08:48 Europe Turns On America

10:11 War Costs And Strategy

13:41 Gold Audit Doubts

15:39 Market Bubbles And Korea

19:28 Inflation Reality Check

21:19 Surveillance Camera State

23:03 No Accountability And Elections

27:13 Influence Peddling Club

29:14 Ukraine War Oil Fallout

32:07 Jones Act And Congress

33:46 Lindsey Graham Legacy

37:49 Betting On What Happens Next

40:10 Wrap Up And Sign Off

Find us at www.crisisinvesting.com

The hosts discuss Trump saying an Iran MOU is "over" after reported attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz area, a major U.S. strike, and Iranian retaliation against U.S. bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, while noting uncertainty about attribution. They argue markets appear complacent despite the potential for a severe real-economy shock from disrupted oil flows, SPR drawdowns, and possible wider chokepoint closures (Hormuz, Bab el-Mandab). The conversation covers Iran's internal backlash after Khamenei's death and the likelihood of escalation, plus spillover risks from Russia-Ukraine strikes on refining assets and Europe's militarization. Doug outlines positioning: long oil via spreads and producers, long grains and gold miners, and considering bearish semiconductor hedges, while warning of bubble valuations and broader systemic financial risks.

00:00 Iran Deal Collapses

01:58 Calm Before Oil Shock

05:06 Oil and Grain Trades

10:02 Hormuz War Scenarios

12:32 Iranian Public Backlash

16:21 Israel and Turkey Risks

19:56 Financial Domino Effects

22:13 Europe Russia Escalation

25:17 Trump Megalomania Talk

29:21 How to Hedge Now

30:36 Bubble Shorts Semis SpaceX

35:18 Market Vibe and Indicators

40:13 World War III Fears

42:05 Wrap Up and Next Episode