Doug Casey's Take

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1976 vs Today: Patriotism, Demographics, Tech, and Subscriber Q&A on Capital Controls, Uranium, Cuba, and Milei

On the July 3 observed July 4 holiday, Matt and Doug compare America's 1976 Bicentennial mood with today, citing major shifts in demographics, a larger population, widening class divides, the decline of manufacturing, and especially computerization and heavy screen time, alongside reduced patriotism and optimism and more political polarization. They discuss changing race relations and immigration, then pivot to subscriber Q&A about Crisis Investing after Lau Veges' departure, risks of foreign bank accounts amid potential capital controls, gold-backed "goldbacks," whether a US government could compel the Sprott Uranium Trust to sell uranium, possible investment opportunities in a collapsing Cuba, views on the death penalty and abortion, where "renaissance men" are most common, why countries splitting can be beneficial, concerns about Javier Milei's pro-Israel actions and immigration stance, and why they won't track panelists' personal trades from their experts roundtables.

00:00 1976 vs Today 02:06 Population and Lifestyle Shifts 04:09 Middle Class Squeeze 05:50 Computers Change Everything 07:20 Immigration and Identity 11:11 Patriotism and Politics 14:13 Subscriber Q and A Begins 17:52 Foreign Accounts and Controls 20:52 Goldbacks and Gold Money 24:29 Uranium Trust and State Power 29:55 Cuba Collapse and Opportunities 33:02 Cuba Property Outlook 34:19 Death Penalty Rethink 36:21 Abortion Family Choice 40:21 Renaissance Men Today 44:30 When Countries Split 47:15 Milei Zionism Concerns 57:46 Roundtable Stock Followups 01:01:49 Holiday Signoff

Doug made a call on this week's episode that stopped me mid-conversation: he's betting Trump resigns before 2028.

Not impeachment. Not the 25th Amendment. Resignation — dressed up, in Doug's telling, with "some nonsensical reason why. Well, time for Vance to get groomed or whatever." And he didn't stop there: "I'd also make book that Melania is going to divorce him." His suspicion? The Melania coin was part of the alimony settlement.

You can dismiss that as Doug being Doug. But listen to the whole episode and the logic hangs together. Here's the chain.

Trump's latest financial disclosure shows $1.4 billion in crypto earnings while in office. The Trump meme coin alone brought in $635 million. (Melania's coin managed about $6 million — which tells you something about the settlement theory.)

Doug's read: "Those coins serve absolutely zero useful purpose. It's like giving somebody a book contract or a speaking fee to pass money to them. It's basically a grift."

And that money has a job to do. "He'll need that money to mount a proper legal defense after he's out of office." A president facing legal exposure the moment he leaves power, sitting on a billion-plus war chest, in years Doug expects to get "so wild and wooly" that walking away becomes the smart trade — that's the resignation bet.

Doug's larger frame is that the grift isn't a side show — it's the system now. "He really is a modern-day reincarnation of Mussolini. His economic policies are actually identical to those of Benito Mussolini" — the US government buying stakes in companies on the open market, ten of them at this point, with the family positioned ahead of the deals.

Take the Kazakhstan tungsten arrangement: Trump's sons get in, then the US government invests heavily. Millions of Americans look at that and call it capitalism. Doug's correction: "It's actually fascism at work, in the classic Mussolini definition of the word." And every time Trump is associated with free markets, he delegitimizes them a little more.

Mamdani won in New York and is now using his star power to elevate three more like-minded candidates into Congress. Doug isn't mincing words: "They're actual real communists that wanna overturn the entire nature of US life."

Left and right, Americans are being radicalized against the system itself. Sanders, Obama, "drain the swamp," Mamdani — every one of those was a vote to tear something down. And the anger is monetary at its root, even if almost nobody can name it.

M2 money supply surged $247 billion in May — the largest monthly jump since May 2021, when Washington was mailing checks to everyone with a pulse. We now sit $1.3 trillion above the peak of that printing orgy. That's what's laying waste to the average American's standard of living. They can't make ends meet, they can't explain why, and so they reach for "billionaires shouldn't exist."

Doug's punchline on where the numbers go from here: "Trump is gonna have to ask what comes beyond a trillion. He doesn't know it, but it's a quadrillion. So that number is the next one we're gonna start hearing about."

"It's all like a gambler on tilt at this point."

Amid the doom, Doug laid out the most concrete investment case he's made in months.

The Hormuz standoff isn't getting resolved. Even under the best scenario, flows through the Strait will be controlled by Iran and its allies — restricted flows are the new baseline. Doug's conclusion: "Oil has reached a new base level at, let's say, $65 to $70 at a minimum."

Now the anomaly: "During the last real oil bubble, which was in 1980, oil stocks were 20% of the S&P 500. Now they're 4%" — even though oil matters more to the world economy than ever. Some of these companies are yielding up to 10% in current dividends.

"They're cheap, they're paying big dividends, nobody wants them, and it's one of the only parts of the financial world that's actually underpriced."

Everyone's chasing semiconductors and AI. The energy that powers all of it trades like an afterthought. That's the setup Doug lives for.

Trump's feud with Meloni at the G7 (and what the Italian press called him afterward), the $16 million Reflecting Pool fixation, the CPS visit to the Buttigieg household and why child protective agencies should terrify every parent in America, and whether there will even be an election in 2028. Doug: "Who knows what could happen between now and then where we could have a national emergency and the election is put off — and that's really the end of the Republic of America."

On Friday: Doug's take on the recent Supreme Court rulings, his thoughts on Peter Thiel's Zero to One, and your questions. Subscribers can submit via the "Ask Doug a Question" link at the top of the Substack.

John Hunt — Doug's co-author and, as Doug put it this week, "an actual renaissance man... not just an MD, he was trained in geology, and he can do everything" — has taken over the monthly Crisis Investing issues. His first one is out now, and it includes a genuinely interesting gold recommendation.

Doug's assessment: "Crisis Investing is a better newsletter than ever, and it's going to improve a lot from here."

If you want John's full write-up on the gold pick, upgrade at crisisinvesting.com.

Find us at www.crisisinvesting.com

Matt and Doug discuss the proliferation of U.S. holidays, including Juneteenth and Martin Luther King Day, before turning to the opening of Obama's presidential library and Trump's competing, highly theatrical library renderings, comparing modern presidential libraries to pyramids and noting Biden's reported difficulty raising funds. They debate Trump's showmanship around his birthday and a ceasefire/peace deal they expect won't hold, citing Iran's improved position, unresolved issues, disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and risks to oil prices. They then address Ukraine's drone attacks on Moscow and concerns about an escalating, lingering war. Doug shares his positioning in gold miners, energy, uranium, and a corn ETF, answers subscriber questions on filmmaking/royalties, the FIFA World Cup and U.S. border hassles, trade blocs like Mercosur/EU, recommended books, and impressions of Malaysia and Penang.

00:00 Holiday Overload Debate

01:06 Which Holidays Matter

02:24 Equinoxes and Global Days Off

03:25 Juneteenth and Identity Politics

05:08 Obama Library Obamalisk

06:55 Trump Library Renderings

09:38 Pyramids and Presidential Tombs

11:31 Biden Library Money Trouble

14:25 Trump Birthday Peace Deal

15:13 Hormuz Oil and Ceasefire Doubts

18:02 Ukraine Drone War Escalation

20:02 War Escalation Risks

21:01 Ceasefire Won't Hold

22:13 Crisis Investing Plays

23:34 Corn ETF Thesis

25:47 Film Investing Reality

29:55 FIFA World Cup Fallout

34:23 Trade Blocs Skepticism

36:19 Five Books To Read

38:56 Malaysia And Penang

41:35 Weekend Signoff

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Matt and Doug discuss a reported US–Iran peace deal whose MOU hasn't been released, doubting it will last due to Israel–Iran hostility and Israeli opposition, while arguing the US bombing of Iran was unnecessary and that the deal looks like a US surrender with potential reparations (estimated $300B) and possible UAE/private funding plus future service fees after 60 days. They then focus on provisions in the NDAA (Section 219) and an Intelligence Authorization Act measure (Sen. Tom Cotton) that would fuse US–Israel military and intelligence programs, outlining six harms: inability to stop unwanted wars, technology leakage (AI/quantum) possibly to China, US contractors losing business, Gaza-tested AI targeting tools entering US systems, Israeli espionage risks, and irreversible entanglement by FY2027. The conversation also covers Trump's credibility, government involvement in AI companies and energy-hungry data centers, China's open-source AI stance, IMF conditional lending in Papua New Guinea, rising authoritarian security policies in Peru, and broader fears of global conflict.

00:00 Iran US Peace Deal

01:08 Why Bomb Iran

02:31 Israel Leverage Theories

04:21 China Oil Shock Absorber

06:58 Trump Character Spin

10:02 Reparations And Tolls

11:18 Israel Lebanon Sticking Point

12:21 Israel As 51st State

14:59 Six Ways It Hurts

21:36 USS Liberty And AIPAC

24:32 AI Data Centers Bubble

28:24 AI As Strategic Weapon

33:42 World War Three Thesis

36:31 IMF In Papua New Guinea

39:48 Peru Fujimori Crackdown

43:47 Authoritarian Trend Fears

45:44 Hopeful Wrap And Outlook

Matt and Doug discuss SpaceX's IPO jumping from 135 to about 171 a share and compare the frenzy to the dotcom era, noting its importance for broader market sentiment and Elon Musk's reported trillionaire status. They mention reading Peter Thiel's Zero to One, then pivot to extreme bearish sentiment in gold miners (a bullish index falling from 100 in January to 0 on June 10) and argue this may be a buying opportunity, alongside unloved oil despite ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions and prices around $80 WTI/$84 Brent. They cover rising inflation (CPI 4.2%), skepticism about official numbers, and expectations for new Fed chair Kevin Warsh. Subscriber questions include Costa Rica as a destination, tokenized gold's practicality and redeemability, whether to short markets, Ebola risk to Ivanhoe Mines, China's reduced oil imports, distrust of Howard Lutnick/Trump-linked trading dynamics, and whether humanoid robotics could extend the AI bull run.

00:00 SpaceX IPO Buzz

01:46 Thiel Book Talk

04:29 Trillion Dollar Math

06:24 Gold Miners Capitulation

09:26 Inflation Fed Outlook

12:47 Paper Fantasy Economy

16:07 Costa Rica Expat Reality

18:38 Central America Picks

20:17 Tokenized Gold Idea

21:07 Tokenized Gold Doubts

21:39 Swiss Gold Token Update

23:43 Shorting Market Timing

25:33 Ivanhoe Ebola Risk

28:36 Oil Prices and China

34:56 Stablecoins and Power Players

37:51 Epstein Files Speculation

39:04 Robots and AI Bubble

41:18 Trump Tweets and Markets

44:13 Weekend Sign Off

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Find Tom at www.tomwoods.com

In a wide-ranging discussion, Tom Woods joins Doug Casey and the host to assess current U.S. politics, culture, and economics. Woods reflects on Trump's 2024 win, the apparent retreat and performative nature of "wokery," and a broader sense that public life is "oddly fake," arguing that Trump squandered political capital and abandoned promising ideas like DOGE while ballooning spending, pursuing misguided trade and housing approaches, and attacking right-wing dissenters. They discuss generational divides in information and voting behavior, pessimism about fixing deficits and entitlements, and the likelihood that "reality" will force a fiscal reckoning through unmanageable interest costs or money printing. The conversation also touches on U.S.-Israel influence politics, concerns about deeper military integration, social media's role in mass conformity, the possibility of U.S. fragmentation, and Woods's commitment to keep speaking out and promoting his newsletter and history courses.

00:00 Welcome Tom Woods

00:33 Old Friends on PBS

01:10 Culture Wokery and Faith

04:15 Trump Momentum and Plan B

05:42 Economic Agenda Letdown

06:53 Housing Prices and Mortgages

09:48 Loyalty Tests and Vance

13:47 Israel NDAA and Intelligence

18:19 Censorship and Empire Decline

19:30 Pride Ads and Mass Psychosis

23:01 Social Media Amplifier

25:13 Will America Break Up

30:01 Keep Fighting Anyway

31:43 No Matter Who You Vote

33:03 Owning the McCain Line

34:04 Twitter Algorithms and Links

34:35 Debt Nobody Wants to Fix

39:49 Progress and Modern Comforts

43:00 Phones Amplify Human Nature

44:43 Boomers vs Gen Z Divide

48:19 Self Reliance for Young Men

51:23 Doug Casey Boomer Memories

55:54 Risks Hope and Do What You Can

58:28 Tom Woods Courses and Farewell

Find us at www.crisisinvesting.com

Matt and Doug open with a light discussion about June holidays, local attitudes toward Pride Month in Virginia, and Trump's unusual AI-style memes, then shift into subscriber questions. Doug explains his cautious stance on sizing into cheap junior mining and gold stocks while wanting more cash "dry powder" amid fears of a potential deflationary market collapse that could temporarily drag miners down too. They discuss whether nuclear weapons and modern city-targeting warfare violate the Geneva Conventions, citing WWII bombings, Korea, Iraq infrastructure attacks, and the devastation and contested casualty estimates in Gaza and southern Lebanon. Doug and Matt touch on eVTOL investing as a regulatory-heavy, early-industry space; risks from Japan rate changes, major tech IPOs, index/ETF dynamics, and speculative options; corn vs. soybeans as a fertilizer play; Doug's views on the soul as unprovable but personally plausible; why Eric Sprott's Forbes cover isn't a top signal; Interactive Brokers for Canadian exchanges; and why inheritance often harms children unless values and education are strong.

00:00 June Holiday Banter

01:12 Pride Flags and Virginia

02:08 Trump Meme Calendar

05:08 Gold Stocks and Dry Powder

08:52 Nukes and War Crimes

13:01 Gaza and Lebanon Fallout

15:22 eVTOL Investing Outlook

18:43 Japan Yen Carry and IPO Top

21:16 Corn vs Soybeans Trade

23:18 Do Souls Exist

27:09 Sprott Cover Top Signal

29:47 Broker for Canadian Stocks

30:13 Inheritance and Raising Kids

35:39 Wrap Up and Next Week

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Matt and Doug discuss whether current markets resemble a melt-up fueled by AI enthusiasm, citing massive gains in large-cap tech and AI-related stocks, surging option speculation including same-day expirations, and the growing proliferation of ETFs. They note trillions sitting in money market funds that could re-enter risk assets, but warn rising rates and heavy government/agency-paper exposure could contribute to a bust. They contrast expensive AI leaders with deeply out-of-favor mining, gold, and oil stocks, arguing commodities may be at new equilibrium levels while producers remain cheap, and point to oil's reduced S&P weight versus 1980. They also question the economic purpose of enormous global data-center buildouts for training ever-more-compute-intensive frontier models. A Washington Post story about a Fidelity account "vanishing" underscores digital fragility, prompting advice to save statements and favor physical gold/silver and smaller, more personal banking relationships.

00:00 Market Melt-Up Talk

00:44 NVIDIA Hype Signals

03:27 AI Stocks Mint Fortunes

05:23 Options Casino Era

07:12 Sidelines Cash and Rates

09:25 Bubble Timing and Sentiment

12:05 Mining and Oil Value Plays

15:19 Geopolitics and Oil Outlook

17:35 Data Center Buildout Boom

20:08 Training the AI God

22:12 Fidelity Account Vanishes

23:27 Account Vanishes Digitally

24:55 Own What You Hold

26:17 Save Your Statements

27:24 Escape Big Bank Hell

30:12 Commodities New Equilibrium

31:20 Buying Physical Gold

31:49 Best Coins For Portability

33:37 Inflation And Dollar Decay

35:18 Ferrari EV Mandates

38:20 Old Ferrari Memories

40:28 Travel Plans And RV Life

42:24 Markets Limbo And AI Top

43:10 Wrap Up And Next Episode

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Matt and Doug take subscriber questions for Crisis Investing while reacting to current events: a reported new $250 bill featuring Trump (and claims about a "gold note"), Trump imagery in passports, and the impact on Americans abroad. They discuss a raid on a CIA supervisor found with 303 kilos of gold, $20 million in cash, and luxury watches, raising concerns about CIA controls and corruption. The conversation turns to the Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz, arguing U.S. actions have repeatedly tightened shipping despite talk of wanting the strait open, with tolling, sanctions, and 1,500–1,700 ships reportedly stuck. They answer questions on inflation, Polymarket vs investing, how oil pricing works, what could invalidate their worldview, AI/robotics investing (favoring China/robots), OPEC weakening, skepticism on SpaceX/OpenAI/Anthropic IPOs, oil stocks and dividends, and preferred older vehicles to avoid surveillance tech.

00:00 Subscriber Q&A Setup

00:25 Trump 250 Dollar Bill

03:36 Passports and Global Backlash

05:15 Venezuela 51st State Post

07:00 CIA Gold Hoard Scandal

12:28 Iran War Fog and Losses

13:56 Hormuz Strait Toll and Sanctions

22:40 Energy Prices in Uruguay Argentina

25:38 Inflation Deficit and Collapse Risks

26:51 Betting Versus Investing

27:04 Polymarket And Market Corruption

29:03 Oil Futures Versus Physical

31:24 When The Worldview Breaks

38:12 AI Robots Real Edge

41:52 OPEC Control And Breakup

43:37 SpaceX IPO Bubble Bells

45:55 Why Own Oil Stocks

48:14 Cars Surveillance And Sweet Spot

51:09 Wrap Up And Next Week

Matt and Doug discuss signs of consumer strain in the U.S.—record-low sentiment, rising delinquencies, and high prices—alongside a stock market at all-time highs, comparing the disconnect to historical episodes like Germany's 1923 hyperinflation. They argue official inflation measures are unreliable, deficits and money printing persist, foreign holders are cutting U.S. Treasuries, and gold benefits while mining stocks remain cheap; Doug remains long gold, oil, and commodities and warns the AI/data-center boom may be a debt-fueled bubble. The conversation turns to widening inequality, debt-based consumption tools, weaker job prospects even for top graduates, and fears of social unrest and potential civil conflict. They criticize what they describe as escalating corruption under Trump, including a DOJ settlement structure and extensive trading disclosures suggesting insider activity, then discuss elections, AIPAC/Israel influence, speech taboos, and rising generational and ethnic tensions.

00:00 Everybody Wants Love

00:08 Economy vs Market Highs

01:34 Sticker Shock in America

04:28 Inflation Numbers Doubt

05:57 Treasuries to Gold Rush

07:12 Mining Stocks and ESG

08:36 AI Data Center Bubble

10:32 Haves and Have Nots

12:08 Buy Now Pay Later Living

13:23 Decades of Debt Warnings

17:10 Trump Corruption Claims

17:50 DOJ Settlement Slush Fund

24:25 Insider Trading Allegations

25:50 Epstein and Ukraine Talk

28:59 Elections and Voter Trust

32:17 Israel Influence and AIPAC

36:38 Hate Speech and Taboo Topics

40:32 Tribalism and Protected Classes

44:22 Civil War and Generational Rift

47:22 Wrap Up and Next Guest