Doug Casey's Take

Oil Spikes, Strait of Hormuz Disruption, and War Psychology: Doug on the Iran Conflict and Market Risk

Doug and the host discuss how oil futures briefly hit $120 amid escalating conflict involving Iran, arguing markets still aren't fully pricing the risks. They call the US action an unprovoked war, stress that wartime information is unreliable, and predict a long conflict followed by a major psychological campaign to build US public support, similar to COVID-era shifts. They cite reported destruction or severe damage to expensive US assets in the Gulf, disruption fears in places like Dubai, and the Strait of Hormuz being effectively closed, taking roughly 20% of global oil supply offline and prompting early global moves like rationing and price controls. They warn government interventions can worsen economic fallout, discuss positioning in commodities (notably a corn ETF) and oil stocks, and advise Americans to "panic early," prepare for fuel/food shocks, possible cyberattacks, and broader supply-chain instability.

00:00 Market Shock and Oil Spike 00:38 Unprovoked War and Propaganda 04:10 Backlash and Free Speech Costs 07:10 Long War and Public Psyops 09:32 Gulf Escalation and Energy Crunch 13:02 Government Meddling and Trade Ideas 22:03 Global Shipping Norms Unravel 28:00 Prepare Early for Domestic Fallout 32:25 Boots on the Ground and Wrap Up

Markets, Middle East Escalation, and Global Risk: Subscriber Q&A on Investing, Relocation, and Ethics

Doug and Matt answer subscriber questions, focusing first on an escalating conflict involving Iran and the Gulf that they view as extremely serious despite a muted market response; Doug says stock and bond markets are overpriced, warns of a potential crash, criticizes demands like "unconditional surrender," questions U.S. involvement (including insuring ships in the Strait of Hormuz), and expects global economic spillovers, noting Gulf vulnerabilities such as desalination, food supply chains, and remittances. They then discuss Paraguay's unusual culture and land-based investment opportunities, dividend investing (noting oil stocks), practicalities of living/investing in Uruguay and Argentina (including taxes and policy changes under Milei), resource investing diligence, when to sell gold/silver, IPO lockup/exit issues, storing metals abroad, and conclude with a discussion of ethical decision-making frameworks and concerns about political leadership's morality.

00:00 Market Reaction to Iran 01:06 Overpriced Markets Warning 02:50 Gulf Risks and Dubai 04:08 Unconditional Surrender Debate 05:12 Strait Insurance Plan 06:49 Who Benefits From War 08:27 Regional Spillover Effects 10:21 Supply Chains and Remittances 13:07 War as Market Catalyst 13:46 Paraguay Living and Culture 16:22 Paraguay Investing Basics 17:55 Dividend Stocks and Oil 18:26 Uruguay Plan B Logistics 20:45 Tungsten Fund Question 21:52 When to Sell Gold 23:00 Selling Shares After IPO 23:54 Iran Travel and Motives 24:12 Missed Iran Polo Trip 24:40 What the Iran War Is About 26:40 Buying a Farm in Argentina 29:01 Argentina Export Taxes Explained 29:45 Why Gold Stocks Fall Out of Favor 31:18 Is This the Last Gold Bull 33:28 Staying in the US Safely 35:27 Replacing Income After Selling 37:30 Next High Ground Novel Update 38:21 Getting Physical Gold in Uruguay 38:57 War Impact on Mining Stocks 40:41 Ethical Reasoning and Consequences 46:19 Politics Morality and Wrap Up

Find us at www.crisisinvesting.com

Matt and Doug discuss the reported US invasion of Iran and warn it could escalate unpredictably and badly, potentially toward a wider regional conflict or even World War III. They argue information from the war zone is unreliable, but note Iran's missile/drone capabilities and the economic asymmetry of expensive US interceptors versus cheap attacks. They criticize launching strikes during negotiations, question US motives tied to Israel and long-standing regional history, and describe risks around the Strait of Hormuz for oil, gas, and fertilizer flows. They debate claims about attacks on Gulf targets, possible Israeli involvement, and confusion over downed aircraft, while highlighting how infrastructure like data centers and banking systems can become targets. The conversation shifts to markets (gold, oil, selected stocks), and broader "greater depression" themes about public crisis-blindness, government growth, inflation, and household financial stress.

00:00 War Breaks Out

01:33 Bases Everywhere

03:19 Fog of War

05:20 Costly Interceptors

05:59 Why Are We Involved

08:17 Israel and US Aid

11:29 Religious End Times

15:33 Iran Strikes Back

17:26 Negotiations Then Attack

24:09 Strait of Hormuz Risks

25:19 Escorts and Escalation

28:11 Cyber and Infrastructure

30:02 Who Hit the Refineries

30:38 False Flags and Mossad Claims

31:47 Fifteen Shootdown Mystery

33:48 Casualties and Interceptor Costs

35:07 Boots on Ground and Kurds

37:32 Markets Gold and Oil Plays

41:44 Why People Miss Crises

49:29 Greater Depression Timeline

50:13 How Iran War Ends

50:59 Assassinations and Nuclear Risk

54:12 Wrap Up and Audience Questions

Doug & Matt Q&A: Scam Warnings, Private Placements, Gold Outlook, Business Advice, and Living Abroad

Doug and Matt warn subscribers about scammers impersonating them on Substack to pitch a mentorship program with urgent funding deadlines, stressing they will never solicit business opportunities and that their only related activity is sharing private placement ideas with VIP members. They discuss strong recent performance in small mining stocks, arguing the sector remains tiny, illiquid, and largely unowned by the public and fund managers, and explain why they favor private placements for discounts and warrants, citing a VIP deal in Midnight Sun copper explorer bought at $0.22 with a $0.30 warrant and later trading above $1.35. They answer questions on starting or buying businesses by focusing on solving niche problems and avoiding "influencer" strategies, remain bullish on gold and related stocks, discuss English-speaking relocation options and Chile's livability, share stories about reckless youthful speeding, touch on glyphosate concerns, and speculate about potential U.S. action against Iran.

00:00 Scam Alert Mentorship Messages 01:18 Mining Stocks Bull Market Thesis 03:16 Private Placements VIP Strategy 05:17 Starting Businesses Finding a Niche 07:11 Influencer Culture Reality Check 11:04 Reinvesting Profits Trend Following 11:51 Second Residency English Options 14:43 Corvette Chase Jail Story 17:27 Muscle Cars and Drag Racing 20:16 Gold Price Overextension Debate 23:21 Living in Chile Pros and Cons 26:12 Glyphosate and Organic Food 28:06 Holding Cash in Treasuries 28:44 Buying a Business Owner Financing 30:33 Iran War Talk and Wrap Up

Find us at www.crisisinvesting.com Doug and the host discuss escalating tensions with Iran and the risks of US military action, then pivot to media and politics including Washington Post subscriber losses/layoffs, Trump's cabinet optics, Pam Bondi's testimony, and expectations around the Epstein files. They answer subscriber questions on the DEAGEL report, the dollar and immigration, retiring in El Salvador vs. the Southern Cone, robot leasing and rapid advances in China, unrealized-gains taxation in the Netherlands, rare-earth supply constraints, lawfare experiences and AI-driven enforcement, Hong Kong property, and why they favor gold/silver and mining stocks over overpriced US equities.

00:00 Iran War Drumbeat: Carriers, Motives, and Blowback Risks

04:06 Nukes, News Fatigue, and Tuning Out the Doom Cycle

07:22 Washington Post Meltdown: Subscribers, Layoffs, and AI Newsrooms

10:53 Scouting America & Eagle Scout Perks (Plus a Fed Chair Joke)

15:48 Pam Bondi, Trump's Cabinet Optics, and the Epstein Files Fallout

20:47 Subscriber Q&A: The Deagel Report—Forecast or Psyop?

23:31 If the Dollar Loses Reserve Status: Immigration, Inflation, and Tariffs

26:46 Retiring to El Salvador vs. the Southern Cone (Argentina Rumors)

29:21 Free Speech vs. the State: When "Hate" Becomes a Censorship Pretext

29:50 Robot Ownership Goes Subscription: Leasing, Updates, and Remote Kill Switches

31:28 China's Humanoid Robot Boom: Dances, Kung Fu, and a Friendly Terminator Future

32:25 Netherlands' Unrealized Gains Tax Shock: Capital Flight, Passports, and US Spillover

35:10 Can the West Replace China's Rare Earth Processing? The Real Bottleneck

36:54 Lawfare in Practice: The Domain Name Lawsuit That Cost $35K 39:11 AI + the Legal System: $3,500/hr Lawyers and the Coming Explosion of Automated Enforcement

41:52 If Democrats Sweep Power: Portfolio Defense, Debt Reality, and Why Gold Stays

44:03 Seasteading & City-States: Why It's a Billionaire's Game (Minerva, Honduras, and Coast Guards)

47:45 Hong Kong Property Revisited: Common Law, Deflation, and a Legendary Real Estate Win

49:25 Should You Avoid US Stocks? Overvaluation, Currency Debasement, and the Mining Stocks Bet (Wrap-Up)

Crisis Investing Q&A: Gold Miners, US Politics, and Safe Investments with Doug Casey

In this episode, Doug Casey addresses questions from Crisis Investing subscribers. Topics include the impact of gold prices on miners and explorers, the potential benefits of keeping a portion of your portfolio in cash, and the possible advantages of investing in Aris Mining's planned move to the NYSE. Doug also gives his take on meeting political figures, the risks of investing in private companies, and the merits of retiring in Panama. Additionally, Doug discusses the issues with security in Mexico, the implications of Uruguay's president visiting China, and the considerations for storing gold to avoid potential US government confiscation.

00:00 Introduction and Overview 00:11 Gold Miners and Stock Appreciation 01:50 Meeting Political Figures 06:15 Private Company Investments 08:05 Cash Management Strategies 09:36 Aris Mining and NYSE Listing 10:50 The Great Taking and Economic Concerns 12:41 Retirement in Panama and Other Locations 14:53 Silver Investment Risks in Mexico 16:49 US-China Relations and Uruguay's Strategy 17:58 Gold Confiscation and Offshore Storage 19:14 Conclusion and Wrap-Up

Get an education on mining stocks: https://expertsroundtable.substack.com/p/rua-gold-corp-doug-caseys-experts

Free newsletter on critical minerals: https://statespeculator.substack.com/

Subscribe to CrisisInvesting.com

In this episode, Doug discusses a range of topics from Bitcoin's long-term viability and real estate opportunities in Argentina, to strategic investments in gold and specific mining stocks. He also addresses listener questions on fractional reserve banking, the state of the Japanese stock market, and the impact of financialization on various assets. Additionally, Doug gives his insights on a new Hollywood movie, the difference between commodity prices in the East and West, and strategies for investing in small and medium enterprises.

00:00 Introduction and Subscriber Questions

00:21 Bitcoin's Viability as a Currency

05:18 Bitcoin's Financialization and Market Dynamics

12:44 Real Estate Opportunities in Argentina

19:01 Investing in Small and Medium Enterprises

21:18 Gold Mining Stocks and Market Analysis

28:18 Christianity's Influence on Western Civilization

40:29 Doug's Take on Ari's Strategic Mining

43:40 Review of DiCaprio's New Film

47:34 Gold as a Tier One Asset and Tax Implications

49:51 Investing in the Japanese Stock Market

54:36 Silver Market Dynamics and Arbitrage

59:12 Fractional Reserve Banking and Usury

01:04:53 Stock Market Crash and Precious Metals

01:11:42 Stop-Loss Strategies in Mining Stocks

Find us at www.crisisinvesting.com

In this episode, Doug and Matt discuss the recent activity in metals and mining markets, including the U.S. government's strategic initiatives to stockpile critical minerals. They scrutinize Trump's $12 billion Project Vault and proposals to expand the export-import bank's budget, exploring how these moves could affect the mining industry. The conversation then shifts to the burgeoning AI landscape, noting developments in AI that enable bots to interact, remember, and even form communities autonomously. Doug and Matt also delve into the criticism of governmental interference and potential impacts on investors, touching on the broader implications of AI on the job market and future technological advancements. The episode wraps up with investment advice and Doug's thoughts on regulatory changes.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:16 Government Interventions in Mining

01:06 Economic Implications of Government Actions

03:23 Historical Context and Strategic Metals

11:05 AI Developments and Ethical Considerations

18:35 Impact of AI on Jobs and Industries

23:09 Gold and Silver Market Dynamics

30:13 Conclusion and Investment Advice

Find us at www.crisisinvesting.com

Doug and Matt Discuss Iran Tensions, Precious Metals Market, and Investment Strategies In this episode, Doug and Matt tackle timely questions from their subscribers, focusing on the escalating tensions with Iran and potential U.S. actions under President Trump. They explore the potential impacts on regional stability and the global economic landscape, including how it might affect oil prices and military strategies. The conversation shifts to the precious metals market, with an emphasis on silver and gold's recent bullish run, investment strategies, and the arbitrage between different markets. Doug and Matt also advice on when to sell and swap precious metals, discuss the impact of industrial demand on prices, and address the importance of a global perspective on investments.

00:00 Introduction and Subscriber Questions

00:14 Potential Conflict with Iran

06:16 Market Reactions and Precious Metals

07:17 Silver Market Dynamics

10:53 Investment Strategies and Market Chaos

20:49 Portfolio Management and Broker Recommendations

25:18 Big Producer and Royalty Names

28:08 Physical Precious Metal Storage

31:24 Financial Newsletters for Investments

35:49 Gold and Silver Market Trends

38:52 Antiquated Metals Pricing in Mining Reports

42:30 Final Thoughts and Future Outlook

→ 20% off link: https://www.crisisinvesting.com/2026

In today's episode, Doug goes further than most people are willing to go in public: he argues Trump can be charming and effective and still be dangerous—because he doesn't operate from a moral or philosophical center.

We dig into the weird split-screen reality where Trump will savage someone in public, then play nice in private… and what that says about the incentives driving this whole moment.

If you've been cheering deportations but haven't thought through what a "bag-and-grab" culture becomes when the political winds shift, this conversation is for you.

And then we pivot from street-level power to monetary reality—because while the media fixates on the daily outrage cycle, the dollar is quietly bleeding out and metals are screaming something big.

Gold is at fresh all-time highs (we talk about $5,280), silver is over $100 (we cite $113), and the public still isn't participating the way a true mania would look. Doug's take: this isn't a "bubble"—it's a new equilibrium forming as central banks dump dollars and reach for the only reserve asset that isn't someone else's liability.

The actionable part: we explain why the real asymmetry isn't in the metal—it's in the miners. Our Crisis Investing portfolio is up about 20% in the last month, with individual names up as much as ~65%, and Doug's argument is that the move still hasn't matched what higher metal prices will do to earnings, buybacks, dividends, and ultimately institutional attention. (He repeats the old rule that matters: be right, sit tight.)

If you want the exact portfolio, the back issues, and the monthly issues as they drop, this is where you upgrade to a paid subscription to Crisis Investing. I'm including a link that gives you 20% off an annual subscription, and it's only open for about 36 hours:

→ 20% off link: https://www.crisisinvesting.com/2026

If this episode hits a nerve - especially the Minneapolis/ICE segment—come back for the Friday Q&A. Doug expects pushback, and honestly, it'll be a good test of whether people can argue the facts without losing their cool or surrendering their principles.