Yesterday, the S&P 500 (barely) broke a 4-week losing streak of down weeks.On a technical level, stocks remain extremely oversold here and sentiment is similarly at a negative extreme.As portfolio manager Lance Roberts notes, conditions like these are ripe for a market reversal. In his opinion, the odds favor a rally in the near term -- perhaps as soon as next week.We discuss the reasons why, as well as the latest Fed guidance, the true risk of recession, bonds, Tesla, and Lance's firm's latest trades in this Weekly Market Recap.

The new Trump Administration has wasted no time deploying its ambitious and disruptive economic policies.Tax cuts, aggressive trade re-negotiations, de-regulation, DOGE-driven cost reductions -- a potential new sovereign wealth fund.What are the intended benefits of these policies? Are they likely to succeed? Are they being implemented in the right way? Might they tip the economy into recession before the long term benefits materialize?I can think of few better people to ask these questions to than today's guest, who has served in the past as an economic advisor to President Elect Trump - as well as to many other previous presidential administrations, both Democrat & RepublicanToday, we're fortunate to welcome back to the program economist Dr Arthur Laffer. He was the first to hold the title of Chief Economist at the Office of Management and Budget in the early 1970s. He then later served as a member of President Reagan's Economic Policy Advisory Board. He's perhaps best known for developing the Laffer curve, a model for determining the optimal balance between tax revenues and economic growth.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

An hour ago, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee released the outcome of its meeting this week, keeping its policy rate unchanged (as expected) but slowing the pace of its Quantitative Tightening program.And just a little while ago, Fed Chair Jerome Powell just wrapped up his press conference related to this release. The market’s reaction (so far) has been positive.My bullet-point notes to Powell’s conference are below.And I’m also happy to announce that Fed-watcher Axel Merk is joining us again to deliver his expert reaction to the Fed’s latest guidance as well as take your questions live.

Well, the Spring Thoughtful Money conference was held online this past weekend and I’m delighted to say the event was a real success.That was due primarily to the amazing line-up of speakers who presented and took live audience Q&A throughout the insight-packed 10-hour day.Lacy Hunt delivered the keynote, followed by Luke Gromen, Michael Howell, Darius Dale, Sven Henrich, Brent Johnson, Thomas Hoenig, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mike Green, Andy Schectman, John Thorndike (GM), Louis-Vincent Gave, Steven Bavaria, Lyn Alden, Melody Wright, New Harbor Financial and Jonathan Wellum. And Jeff Clark provided a bonus video focused on gold & silver mining stocks.For those of you who didn’t attend, I thought you’d enjoy hearing some of the conference highlights.

Macro analyst Stephanie Pomboy and I just concluded our bi-weekly live show.This week, Stephanie focused on recession risk and the mental gymnastics many go through to avoid addressing it.Not only are the economic data continuing to weaken, but even the new Administration is telling investors to prepare for a slowdown.Here’s US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent yesterday:“The market and the economy have become hooked, become addicted, to excessive government spending and there’s going to be a detox period.”At this point, to refuse to plan for even at least the possibility of a recession and/or a further market decline later this year is foolish.Steph and I also discussed her outlook on gold, the employment market, corporate profit margins, the latest retail sales data and several other audience questions.NOTE: these bi-weekly Monday morning live shows with Stephanie are moving to Wednesdays going forward. The next one will take place on Wed March 26th (same 11amET time).

After four weeks of relentless selling, the charter of the stock market has changed.While a short-term bounce is likely here, sentiment is now damaged.It will be harder for the market to race back to new highs, as investors start to price in a greater acceptance of the current risk factors.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

After a pummeling few weeks over which the stocks lost $trillions in market cap, Friday saw a big rally and the reversal of a number of technical indicators.Does this mean the bottom is in? At least, in the near term?Quite possibly, says portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz.We discuss the reasons why this is more likely than not, and the importance of watching closely what happens next.If stocks rise to make a new high, the multi-year bull market trend will remain intact.If they rise, but start putting in lower highs & lower lows, that suggests more weakness to come.If they fail to rise at all from here and resume their downtrend, that opens the door to some scary prospects.Michael and I discuss all of these in depth -- as well as his outlook on tariffs, earnings, recession risk, bonds, gold and his firm's latest trades -- in this week's Market Recap.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

As mentioned many times on this program, stocks entered the year trading at or near record-high valuation extremes.When stocks are at such overbought extremes, short-sellers smell opportunity. They've certainly had a lot of it over the past two weeks.Today we have the good fortune of speaking with one of the best known short-sellers in the business, Carson Block, founder of Muddy Waters Research.He's come to the conclusion that the market, especially in the US, are "broken"To find out why, watch this video.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

Gold has experienced a major upwards repricing in recent years.It's up nearly $1,000/oz over the past two years.And in just the past year alone, it's up 35%, handily outperforming the S&P's return of just 13%.Some say gold is quite overbought after this big run. Others say it's just getting started, and that far higher prices lie ahead due to the ongoing loss of purchasing power of the US dollar and other world fiat currencies.Which is more likely?For a "boots on the ground" report on all things gold, we welcome Andy Schectman to the program for the first time. Andy is the CEO and co-founder of Miles Franklin -- a full-service precious metals broker with a mission to educate the masses on the benefits & principles of sound money and to deliver fair pricing. It has an A+ rating from the Better Business Bureau.Andy reports that amidst the current wild action in the gold market, he's seeing some developments he's never witnessed before in his decades-long career.READ OUR FREE GUIDE TO BUYING GOLD & SILVER at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/gold

From tariffs to tax cuts to de-regulation to budget reductions to a potential sovereign wealth fund, the new Trump administration is moving aggressively to redesign the way America finances itself.Are these much-needed reforms that will put the American economy on a more secure & sustainable footing?Or could they risk resulting in misguided chaos?To find out, today we have the great fortune to welcome to the program Dr Judy Shelton, economist, author, Senior Fellow at the Independent Institute and the author of Good as Gold How to Unleash the Power of Sound Money.She's a particularly qualified expert on today's topic because she served as an economic advisor to President Trump during his first term, and was nominated by him in 2020 for the Federal Reserve.BUY YOUR TICKET FOR OUR MARCH 15 CONFERENCE at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference