New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 273 to discuss the markets and the economy.

Sponsors:

Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia

Links:

How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond

Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/

00:00 Introduction: Larry McDonald, founder of the Bear Traps Report

00:47 Getting long high beta names in April, now lightening positions

02:18 Add high beta into fear/panic, lighten into complacency

04:11 Warning about "Liz Truss moment" for America - bond panic scenario

06:38 Debt ceiling suspension creates $1.7 trillion bond issuance catch-up

08:04 Bessent's "bag of tricks" to fight bond vigilantes

09:33 Dollar counter-trend rally from front-end Treasury issuance

11:41 Mechanics of dollar rally: need dollars to buy Treasuries

13:53 Emerging market bonds outperforming long-term Treasuries

16:14 Question whether "bag of tricks" arrives on time to help bonds

17:05 Financial repression explanation: suppress rates below inflation

18:40 Bond vigilantes back despite Bessent's interventions

19:35 Commodities renaissance: copper names up 200-300% over 5 years

21:51 New portfolio construction: gold, copper, uranium, lithium miners

24:08 Risk: banks exposed to $5 trillion in commercial real estate debt

25:09 Jamie Dimon and Buffett selling banks at "alarming pace"

26:31 Optimistic on lithium trade and Chile election outcome

26:55 Expecting 100 basis points in rate cuts due to debt burden

28:12 Coal names oversold, offshore drilling opportunities

30:00 Closing remarks