The Julia La Roche Show

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris breaks down why the stablecoin boom may be running out of road — giving the Clarity Act less than 50/50 odds and arguing it could strip the yield out of coins, force issuers offshore, and turn the survivors into banks. He makes the case that stablecoins are little more than "prepaid gift cards," lays out why he's bullish on gold and silver as central banks and China chase physical metal, and warns that real inflation — measured by commodity inputs like energy and sulfur (up 150% since the Iran war), not the CPI — is closing in on double digits. Whalen also sees the 10-year Treasury pushing past 5% and mortgages settling into a "higher for longer" 6.5–7%, flags the mortgage sector as the earnings story to watch, takes aim at Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy, points to safer places to find yield, and keeps circling back to one unsettling parallel: today looks a lot like the 1920s, right before the party ended.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:    

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:

0:00 – Intro

0:45 – The Clarity Act: will it kill stablecoins?

3:34 – Do stablecoins have any real use case?

5:17 – Why we may need fewer banks — and more insurers

8:22 – Do stablecoins actually create Treasury demand?

10:16 – Chris's next book: gold

12:20 – Gold's pullback and the bull case for silver

16:37 – Goldman's $4,900 target & John Paulson on gold

17:53 – The BLS quietly redefines inflation

19:40 – A 2% target, a 6% deficit, and 5% yields

22:07 – Why mortgage earnings are the story to watch

24:29 – Affordability, home prices & the blue-state squeeze

26:42 – Why it all rhymes with the 1920s

28:44 – Viewer Q&A: the real double-digit inflation

32:12 – MSTR yields, Saylor & where to find safe income

36:28 – Closing thoughts: the mortgage shakeout ahead

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Financial commentator Chris Irons, also known as Quoth the Raven on X and author of the popular QTR Fringe Finance substack, returns to the show with a sobering assessment of markets he says are at or above the highest valuations in history — propped up by a passive bid, options-driven flows, and ten mega-cap names carrying everyone's retirement. Irons explains why he's stepped back from active trading permanently, why he believes the SpaceX IPO's $2 trillion ask may have marked a top in AI euphoria, and why Kevin Warsh's inflation-fighting promises will crumble the moment equities fall 10-20%. He shares where he's finding opportunity — including his early psychedelics call that's crushed the market this year, emerging markets, and beaten-down gold miners — and warns that the most underappreciated risks lie in stablecoins, crypto leverage, private credit, and regional banks. His bottom line: a sharp deleveraging is coming, the Fed will fold at the first sign of discomfort, and gold could hit $7,500 or higher after the next round of money printing.

This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:

X: https://x.com/QTRResearch

Substack: Viewers/listeners of The Julia La Roche Show get 80% off an annual subscription of QTR's Fringe Finance https://quoththeraven.substack.com/subscribe?coupon=7c8478df&utm_content=207295644

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction and welcome back

00:57 Big picture: Fed stuck between a rock and a hard place

03:18 Out-of-control fiscal policy and the "sovereign Ponzi scheme"

05:41 Private equity repackaged in insurance wrappers (2008 echoes)

06:30 SpaceX IPO as a possible top signal for the AI bubble

07:38 Why Chris stepped back from active trading permanently

12:01 "Being right vs. making money"

13:15 Life after trading: clarity, priorities, and more content

14:45 Diagnosing the market: passive bid, gamma squeezes, and index distortion

16:35 The case for equal-weight (RSP) over cap-weighted S&P

18:30 Michael Burry's AI build-out vs. dot-com comparison

21:10 Opportunities: the psychedelics thesis and how it played out

27:00 Gold and miners: buying the pullback, $7,500 gold scenario

30:45 What to expect from a Kevin Warsh-led Fed

34:36 Should inflation even be the Fed's mandate?

36:04 Arbitrary prices and permanently distorted markets

37:45 The vocal track analogy: too many plugins on the economy

40:10 Why active trading is impossible in a headline-driven market

41:27 Most underappreciated risks: stablecoins, Tether, and crypto contagion

43:30 Corporate fraud, private credit, regional banks, and subprime auto

46:01 Closing thoughts and subscriber discount

George Noble, CIO of Noble Capital Advisors and former Fidelity fund manager under Peter Lynch, returns with a stark warning: the global liquidity cycle has turned. Citing "liquidity king" Michael Howell, Noble argues that surging deficits, sticky inflation, and a worldwide capex boom have stripped away the policy safety net markets have relied on since 2009 — setting up a potential "Wile E. Coyote moment" where stocks take a dirt nap and the Fed can't respond. He says the Fed isn't in control, Mr. Market is, and bond yields at 4.5% are "much too low" — fair value may be closer to 5.5-6%. Noble calls the AI trade "far worse than dot-com," with malinvestment 17 times larger, hyperscalers destroying free cash flow, and semis a "huge short." His playbook: ditch the 60/40 portfolio, own the reflation trade — gold, silver, energy, copper, uranium — and he names specific stocks including SSRM, Coeur, Valaris, and CRGY. Plus: why the yen carry trade could break, the TLT-in-Turkish-lira lesson on real money, and his most emphatic call of all — "run, don't walk" from SpaceX before the float unlock. And details on his Best Stock Ideas Summit, July 22nd.

Thank you to our sponsors:

Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA

Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:

George Noble's Best Stock Ideas Online Summit: https://noble-capevents.com/

X: https://x.com/gnoble79

Substack: https://substack.com/@georgenoble

Timestamps:

0:00 — Intro; George's Best Stock Ideas Summit July 22nd

1:10 — The global liquidity cycle has turned: Michael Howell's warning

4:31 — "Risk assets are extremely challenged" — rotation and dispersion is the real story

5:30 — Energy vs. Mag 7: free cash flow tells the story

7:03 — Tech is really 50% of the market — why the indices will struggle

8:20 — "Warsh is not in control, Mr. Market is"

10:04 — Why Warsh will blink: the market will force the Fed's hand

10:28 — America's Liz Truss moment? Lending to "the Bank of Julia" at 4.5%

13:34 — Policy options are gone: why this time the Fed can't rescue markets

14:55 — The "Wile E. Coyote moment" ahead for markets

16:17 — Japan: 30-year high JGB yields, the yen, and the carry trade risk

19:01 — Path vs. prediction: why bond yields are "much too low" — 5.5-6% fair value

23:27 — Why the economy shrugs off higher rates (and why that's bearish)

25:17 — All fiat is devaluing against real assets: the dollar fell 60% against gold

27:17 — Buying the gold correction; why miners could double or triple

28:05 — The TLT in Turkish lira: a lesson in your unit of account

30:10 — Why 60/40 is the worst allocation right now — "certificates of confiscation"

34:07 — "Far worse than dot-com": the margin bubble and 17x the malinvestment

36:29 — The internet grew 25 million percent — and the stocks still crashed 90%

39:21 — George names names: SSRM, Coeur, Valaris, CRGY, uranium, junior copper

40:42 — Parting thoughts: the golden age of stock picking

41:45 — SpaceX: "run, don't walk" — why the float unlock means a crash is coming

43:00 — The Best Stock Ideas Summit: 15 investors, one pick each, July 22nd

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris breaks down a blockbuster week of bank earnings — and why the record numbers mask a growing problem. Wall Street trading and investment banking revenues are exploding, but banks aren't making money on money, as asset yields fall for a sixth straight quarter and private credit giants like Apollo poach deals. Whalen flags roughly $4 trillion in bank exposure to non-depository financial institutions, warns "there are no regulators in Washington" watching the risks, and says the housing market's business-purpose loan boom "feels like 2005." He sticks with his double-digit inflation call, arguing diesel — not oil — is the real story, and predicts fuel shortages, maybe even rationing, before the midterm elections. Plus: Kevin Warsh's Greenspan-style Fed debut, gold's selloff as a buying opportunity, viewer questions on Annaly, and a World Cup prediction.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:    

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 

The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira869

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:

0:00 — Intro and welcome

00:55 Bank earnings and oil prices soar as Middle East war reignites

2:36 — Bank earnings disconnect: Wall Street booms, lending shrinks

3:55 — Why big deals keep going to private credit (Apollo, Blackstone)

5:59 — The hidden risk: banks lending directly to private credit funds

9:06 — The $4 trillion exposure — "no regulators watching the hen house"

10:07 — The "Everything Bubble": rising rates, falling yields, record home prices

12:06 — Kevin Warsh's Greenspan-style Fed: "inflation is a choice"

14:40 — Rate hike odds cool — will the Fed wait until after midterms?

15:42 — Energy shortages building: why the Trump administration stays quiet

16:45 — Double-digit inflation call stands; possible rationing by Election Day

17:53 — Iran destroyed Gulf refining capacity — years to rebuild

21:52 — Housing: sales fall 2.4%, median price hits record high

23:14 — "It feels like 2005" — DSCR and non-QM loans flash warning signs

27:19 — Gold selloff: why Chris is buying more (especially silver)

29:37 — Viewer Q: How rates affect Annaly (NLY) — it's all about the spread

31:03 — Viewer Q: Warsh's 2% target vs. $80 oil — a double whammy?

32:27 — Chris's World Cup prediction: Argentina

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

In this episode, Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors with 49 years in the business, returns to discuss his latest letter, "Stick to Your Principles," and why he believes today's market is anything but normal. He warns that 10-12 companies now make up half the S&P 500, speculation via leveraged ETFs is in the billions, and stocks are roughly three standard deviations above the norm — a setup he says could eventually correct 40% or more in a generational bear market. Oakley explains why investor complacency is the biggest mistake he sees, with three-quarters of all financial assets in stocks and Americans over 70 owning a third of the market. He shares where he's finding value now — energy names like Northern Oil & Gas, Kimbell Royalty, and Antero, plus beaten-down gold miners like Agnico Eagle — and recounts the hard lesson he learned chasing hot oil stocks in the late 1970s. His biggest worry: unsustainable government debt. His surprising source of optimism: a severe downturn, which he views as the buying opportunity of a generation.

Thank you to our sponsor Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:

Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisors

X: https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors

Book: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168

Timestamps:

0:00 – Introduction: Ted Oakley of Oxbow Advisors returns

0:53 – Semiconductors dominating the market; 10-12 companies are half the S&P

2:10 – "The Gambler": leveraged ETFs and speculation in the billions

3:16 – How leveraged ETFs amplify volatility

4:25 – A market high that "sticks for a while" coming in the next 6-12 months

5:41 – Risk/reward has flipped: 6-8% upside vs. 25% downside

6:38 – A generational bear market could mean a 40-45% correction

8:04 – Investor complacency: 75% of financial assets in stocks, an all-time high

9:26 – Oxbow's positioning: ~60/40 stocks and short-term treasuries

11:04 – The bond market: a possible trade in long-dated treasuries, but not worth the risk

12:19 – Cooler CPI and why inflation could fall further on oil prices

13:36 – What oil industry insiders are saying about drilling and cash flows

14:54 – Everyone's bearish on oil — Ted sees $100+ within 18 months

16:26 – What Ted's buying: Northern Oil & Gas, Kimbell Royalty, Antero, NESR

19:22 – Gold miners cheap after 35-40% correction; Agnico Eagle is Oxbow's top holding

21:09 – Momentum players washing out of gold sets up the next move

22:45 – "Stick to Your Principles": valuation discipline and why pros abandon it

24:16 – Ted's own lesson: getting burned in the late-'70s oil boom

26:00 – The Intel example: sold in '99, took 26 years to hit a new high

27:50 – Why hot IPOs disappoint (SpaceX down 30% from IPO)

29:27 – The boomer risk: over-70s own a third of all stocks

32:04 – Biggest risk: unsustainable government debt and interest costs

33:33 – Why Ted is optimistic about a downturn: liquidity to buy the sale

New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to lay out why he believes markets are entering a major regime shift. He points to a historic rotation out of mega-cap tech — roughly $2 trillion has already exited the "Mag 7" since October — as sophisticated institutional investors grow wary of unsustainable AI/data-center capital expenditures and the off-balance-sheet financing propping them up. McDonald warns of a coming credit crisis driven by private credit weakness and commercial real estate stress, while arguing that Washington's stablecoin push and "financial repression" tactics are being used to force more Treasury buying and inflate away the $39 trillion national debt. With sticky inflation, midterm election risk, and a volatile August-September seasonal pattern ahead, he's positioning in hard assets — gold (targeting $6,500), silver, natural gas, and select energy names — as the trade of the next several years, while sounding the alarm on an S&P 500 he calls dangerously concentrated in tech.

Thank you to our sponsors:

Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA

Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:

How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR

Colossal Failure of Common Sense: https://www.amazon.com/Colossal-Failure-Common-Sense-Collapse/dp/B002IFLWMK

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond

Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/

00:00 – Intro & welcome back

01:11 – Big picture macro setup: bullish-to-bearish rotation among top institutional investors

02:19 – "Under the seat cushions" — what's really going on beneath bank earnings

04:55 – The AI/data center malinvestment cycle & Mag 7 outflows

05:57 – Economic outlook, Druckenmiller's rule, Trump/Middle East risk

08:10 – Recession odds & consumer divergence (Home Depot, Pepsi, Costco)

10:34 – Why the midterms matter for investors

12:53 – Passive investing, S&P concentration, fiduciary "reconstruction"

15:07 – Energy sector picks (Occidental, Schlumberger, XLE)

16:23 – Treasury market "control" — stablecoins, Clarity Act

19:00 – "Bessent's bag of tricks" & debt dynamics

20:33 – Fiscal dominance explained (Lehman vs. post-2020 response)

23:02 – 3% inflation target implications, growth-to-value rotation

25:08 – Hard asset thesis: Bitcoin, natural gas, precious metals

29:21 – Gold outlook & the "hot money flush"

33:14 – Gold price target: $6,500

33:46 – Biggest risks: data center debt, private credit, commercial real estate

37:28 – Kevin Warsh's Fed approach & yield curve control prediction

40:30 – What to watch in H2: seasonality, volatility, August/September risk

42:52 – Closing

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris expects the Federal Reserve will deliver one rate hike before Labor Day despite Warsh's preference to delay—the White House has greenlit it to maintain Warsh's credibility as chairman, and this one hike will likely lead to more because incremental Fed policy changes don't stop at one when fighting inflation. The Iran ceasefire has shattered and won't be fixed: Iran has zero incentive to reach peace with the U.S., wants to tax Strait of Hormuz traffic, and will force Gulf states to build pipelines and avoid the strait entirely—oil refineries won't be rebuilt while shooting continues, causing permanent structural supply damage. U.S. oil stocks are at their lowest level in 20 years, diesel is up 30% this year and ripples through every part of the economy, and California is facing potential rationing after it runs down reserves and stops getting refined products from Asia. Whalen stands firm on his double-digit inflation call despite prediction markets showing lower odds, arguing the real economy—not market probabilities—determines consumer and producer behavior, and rising consumer inflation expectations (3.7% one-year) are changing psychology and forcing real estate hedging. Bank earnings next week will reveal whether credit costs continue rising as spreads widen between Treasuries and corporate bonds, signaling medium-term economic slowdown ahead as speculative companies lose financing access.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:    

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 

The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira866

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

The Entropy Trap: https://www.amazon.com/Entropy-Trap-Physics-Knows-Markets/dp/B0H1ZP7NZX/ref=sr_1_1

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:

0:00 Warsh slow walking rate cut, White House greenlit one hike

1:32 FOMC divided, one rate hike likely before Labor Day

2:35 White House supporting Warsh to maintain credibility

3:39 One hike doesn't typically happen alone

4:42 Warsh reducing Fed presence, pulling back on forward guidance

5:10 Fed's 2% target won't change consumer behavior on inflation

7:29 Oil stocks at 20-year low, diesel shortage critical

11:40 Iran ceasefire fragile, no incentive for lasting peace

13:41 U.S. must build pipelines, avoid Strait of Hormuz

14:08 Physical oil stocks depleted, refined products in short supply

15:26 Diesel is political issue - impacts economy, employment

16:06 California facing potential rationing without supplies

16:36 Diesel up 30% this year, ripples through entire economy

17:32 Double-digit inflation thesis still stands despite market skeptics

18:46 Prediction markets vs real economy - spreads tell story

20:06 Consumer inflation expectations hit 3.7% one-year (3-year high)

20:27 Psychology of inflation changes spending and investment behavior

21:34 Real estate traditional hedge, prices skyrocketing

22:20 Spreads widening, economy slowing medium-term

23:35 Earnings season next week - credit costs key indicator

24:19 Midterms - Democrats take House, Trump faces impeachment

25:32 Politics won't change, nothing gets done

26:41 Pfizer building conversion collapsing, structural problems

29:17 Bunker Hill Mining penny stock opportunity, silver revival

31:28 Banks earnings - watch credit costs, mortgage issuers follow

Danielle DiMartino Booth praises the FOMC minutes as "clean" under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh—no manipulation of data like Janet Yellen did in 2013—and notes Warsh has successfully convened consensus around "less is more" Fed communications with an unusually quiet media environment. The real bombshell is the July jobs data: the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% only because 720,000 Americans gave up looking for work in a single month, representing a 50-year low in labor force participation since 1976, while 49% of adults under 30 now live with their parents as affordability collapses and job insecurity rises. Danielle warns the official narrative of economic strength masks a deteriorating real economy: revolving credit declined (a sign lenders are tightening), consumer confidence shows jobs are hard to get, and vacation spending has crashed to Great Recession levels—yet mainstream media remains fixated on an inflation narrative unsupported by broad data. The biggest systemic risk is the "too big to fail" stock market: 51% of global assets now sit outside the regulated banking system, asset managers hold assets larger than major banks, and the government can't allow equity market collapse when 401(k)s are the only retirement plans left, implying inevitable Fed monetization and the "end of capitalism." Her source of hope: summer interns aged 18-28 who are hungry, hardworking, and reject the "too big to fail" mentality—representing a generation determined to work their way out rather than accept billionaire UBI schemes designed to maintain inequality.

Thank you to our sponsors:

Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA

Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:

Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth

Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI

Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro and welcome back Danielle DiMartino Booth

00:40 FOMC minutes from June - Clean, Warsh didn't manipulate data

1:30 Warsh convened consensus, less is more communications working

2:57 Forward guidance removal, Fed less visible, refreshingly quiet

3:20 Elizabeth Warren defends bloated 12 district banks, Waller calling it out

4:38 Warsh has convened consensus around leadership position

5:13 Warsh refuses forward guidance, hints at ending dot plot

6:23 Inflation cooling seen but Iran hostilities change calculus

6:59 No press conference if nothing to say - Hail Mary move

7:25 Mervyn King taking communications, five task forces with outsiders

8:49 Kalshi traders: 79% hold rates in July, 76% expect no cuts 2026

9:36 Labor force participation 50-year low since 1976

15:35 720,000 Americans gave up looking for work in one month

16:05 Unemployment fell to 4.2% but for wrong reasons

16:59 Full-time jobs destroyed, replaced by gig workers

17:36 Labor market called stable but disconnect with data

18:18 Jobs hard to get at highest level, Americans aware

19:30 Revolving credit down, unusual sign of lender tightening

20:20 49% of adults under 30 living with parents

21:12 Five of 20 K-Shiller metro areas below 2000 price levels

22:35 Young people disenfranchised, AI destroying college degree value

24:32 Stock market too big to fail - implies Fed buying equities

25:01 Inequality gap - bottom 10% stock holdings fell 3% to 1%

26:14 Top 0.1% holdings doubled, bottom K getting bigger

26:33 Worry about social fabric fraying with K-shaped economy

29:16 Billionaires pushing UBI while controlling AI benefits

30:14 Work ethic is what made America great

30:30 Writing piece on too big to fail for weekly flagship

32:08 51% of global assets outside regulated banking system

33:34 Summer interns give hope - bright, hungry, great work ethic

34:45 Young generation rejects too big to fail narrative

Michael Every, Global Strategist for Economics and Markets at Rabobank, presents a radical framework: everything is now about economic statecraft and geopolitics, not traditional monetary or fiscal policy, meaning central banks, interest rates, and economic structures are all subsets of national security objectives. Central bank models are broken because exogenous geopolitical supply shocks (Iran war, Ukraine, COVID) constantly disrupt equilibrium assumptions, and the old playbook of managing demand through one global interest rate no longer works in a fragmenting world with different sectors having different national security priorities. He warns the biggest risk is far more war ahead, specifically predicting Iran war will resume after the midterms because tolls, sanctions, uranium, and Lebanon remain unresolved—Iran is losing leverage as oil flows increase and the world moves on, so it will need to "rock the boat" to regain attention. Interest rates will trend higher due to massive fiscal pressures on defense spending, reshoring, supply chain security, and infrastructure investment, and differential interest rates will emerge where sectors critical to national security borrow cheaper than speculative sectors. He argues the private sector will be tasked with moonshot innovations (like AI and Manhattan Project-style programs) that governments can't afford alone, with government potentially taking stakes in critical companies like OpenAI and Intel. On the Strait of Hormuz, he dismisses markets pricing 45% chance of normalization before October 1 as too optimistic, noting ships run dark, ship-to-ship transfers hide traffic, and geopolitics will escalate after midterms—Hormuz will never fully normalize as countries build alternatives. America will retain primacy going forward but must completely reinvent itself economically and politically, with broader appeal to allies while accepting a world where other powers have their own sphere of influence, and whoever holds office will face the same underlying reality that American power projection equals American living standards.

Thank you to our sponsors:

Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA

Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:

https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/our-experts/011085368/michael-every

https://x.com/themichaelevery

Timestamps:

0:00 Everything now about geopolitics, not traditional economics

2:00 Michael's background - 30 years, 9 countries, cross-border analyst

5:20 Economic statecraft framework - national power is driving force

6:06 Policymakers getting it, but many still don't understand

8:16 Central bank models don't work, they never did

8:40 Exogenous supply shocks (Iran, Ukraine, COVID) keep breaking models

11:36 One interest rate doesn't work in fragmenting world

15:33 Central banks being cagey about structural changes

19:21 Geography matters - some countries will thrive, others fail

23:20 Rates going higher, not lower for longer

23:29 Massive fiscal pressures on defense, supply chains, infrastructure

26:25 Differential interest rates by sector based on national security priority

27:06 Biggest risk - far more war coming

28:19 Iran war after midterms, not resolved yet

31:59 Defense contractors won't make huge profits - government controls pricing

34:40 AI is about national security, not making money

35:31 Government may need private sector to fund moonshots they can't afford

36:19 Government taking stakes in strategic companies (OpenAI, Intel, Trump)

39:04 Strait of Hormuz assessment

42:59 Iran needs to rock the boat, leverage slipping away

44:19 Kalshi market too optimistic on Hormuz normalization

45:08 Hormuz won't ever fully normalize again

46:04 US still primary power but must reinvent itself

49:15 America can retain primacy but it will look different

50:09 Whoever's in office has to return to same arguments on American power

Chris Whalen kicks off the July 4th episode of The Wrap by diving into private credit implosion with BDCs turning unprofitable, using the acronym POOP (Principal on Outstanding Principal) to illustrate how debt is being converted to equity because companies can't pay—essentially turning investors into equity holders in insolvent companies. The June jobs report shocked with only 57K payrolls added (far below expectations) while household employment actually fell by 500K, making the data contradictory and unreliable despite the overall labor market still showing relative steadiness in many markets. Housing shows sharp bifurcation: sales above $1 million hit a record high while overall volume is down, revealing that only luxury properties are moving as the broader market softens. Goldman Sachs projects gold could hit $4,900, and Whalen is holding silver as a hedge against dollar debasement and inflation, noting the Chinese are aggressively buying silver in both futures and spot markets. Trump has profited handsomely from his various crypto ventures while most investors in those same ventures have lost significant money—a familiar pattern from Trump's business history. With the US national debt now at $39.35 trillion on America's 250th birthday, Whalen warns the Democratic Party will split between socialists and Republicans, with policies like New York's rent freezing turning cities into slums while hurting mom-and-pop landlords. He recommends watching interest rates, the Fed under Kevin Warsh, and expects another uptick in gold and silver prices after recent selloffs, while cautioning on BDCs and private credit exposure as the distress signals mount.

Thank you to today's episode sponsor, The Entropy Trap by Mickey Maini. Order your copy: https://www.amazon.com/Entropy-Trap-Physics-Knows-Markets/dp/B0H1ZP7NZX/ref=sr_1_1

Links:    

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira864

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:

00:00 — Intro and World Cup chat

1:09 Gold rebounds, AI stocks slump

1:38 Private credit - BDCs turning unprofitable

2:40 POOP acronym - Principal on Outstanding Principal, crap debt

4:07 POOP emoji Bloomberg article, Victor Hong invented term

5:54 AI stocks slumping, pressure on private credit portfolios

6:00 Market doesn't like it right now

11:23 June non-farm payrolls - 57K added, much worse than expected

11:44 May/June comparisons all over place, household employment down 500K

12:21 Can't take a lot out of these numbers

13:33 Labor market steady to extent we can rely on statistics

14:12 Housing costs up, Americans work harder to compensate

14:12 Goldman Sachs says gold could hit $4,900

15:31 Chinese aggressive buyers of silver, not changing view

16:06 Gold/silver hedge against dollar and inflation

17:40 US national debt at $39.35 trillion on country's birthday

18:12 Democratic Party gonna get torn in half

18:50 Rise of democratic socialist candidates

19:49 Rent freezing turning NYC into slum, mom and pop landlords hurt

20:17 How much money to live in NYC reasonably? Way more than poverty level

21:45 Trump crypto - Done well, investors lost a lot

23:32 Book - Entropy Trap by Mickey Maini

29:33 90% of mortgage market government insured, no systemic bailout needed

32:43 Silver good play medium to long term as hedge

34:13 Back half of year focused on interest rates

35:13 Watching Fed, Kevin Warsh, uptick in gold/silver coming