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Andreas Steno Larsen, macro researcher from Real Vision, joins Max Wiethe on Other People’s Money to discuss the shifting macro regime where inflation has returned and is pushing US Treasury yields over 5%. They discuss the market’s expectation for interest rate hikes and how the new Fed chair Kevin Warsh will react to this environment. They also discuss the other dominant force in markets right now, the AI buildout. Steno Larsen argues that things are going to get crazier before the cycle turns later this year, but in the meantime the shortages in the AI supply chain are creating unappreciated winners in the technology sector.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:50 Inflation and the Big Macro Shift

01:43 Transitory Inflation Debate

04:19 Bond Trade Timing

06:13 Steep Curve Playbook

09:41 Why Steepening Helps

12:24 Strong Dollar EM Risk

14:35 HFGM Unlimited Funds

16:51 India Data Versus Rupee

18:24 Energy Supply Countdown

21:23 LatAm Underperformance

23:27 AI Inflation Link

26:52 Korea Semis Surge

28:26 Momentum with Earnings

30:39 Quantum Hype Warning

32:24 Semis Cycle Peak Question

34:47 Late Cycle Winners Flip

39:01 IPO Supply and Rotation

43:35 Valuation Metrics Reframed

46:11 Hidden Scarcity Trade

49:21 Goods Inflation Returns

51:15 AI Jobs and Robotics

54:07 White Collar Disruption Map

59:53 LLMs and Bad Facts

01:04:47 Momentum vs. Value Edge

01:06:15 Rapid Fire Outlook and Wrap