During this episode, Tracey shares her takeaways from the recently held Geneva Sugar conference and provides an update on the cocoa market after the relative strength in recent grinding data.

Speakers:

Tracey Allen, Head of Ags Research

This podcast was recorded on April 25, 2025. 

After hitting our out-of-consensus upside EUR/USD targets of 1.14-1.16, we now set our sights at 1.20 and discuss the underlying rationale. We also discuss the outlook for the broader euro bloc as well as the main take-aways for FX from our suite of systematic models.

Speakers

Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy

James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy

Antonin Delair, Global FX Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 25 April 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4966930-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4957718-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Heightened trade policy uncertainty and an apparent shift in OPEC’s reaction function prompt a reassessment of our outlook and price projections. Having reached our year-end price forecasts eight months early, we lower our 2025 Brent price forecast to $66 ($62 WTI), down from $73/bbl. Additionally, we adjust our 2026 targets to $58 ($54 WTI), a slight decrease from the previous $61. The price floor is now much lower. Unlike the Biden administration, which limited downside risk by guiding the refill of the US SPR when WTI prices fell below $70, the Trump administration is actively pursuing lower oil prices, with intervention unlikely unless price drops to $50. US shale producers will bear the brunt of these developments, with our projections indicating a cut of 115 rigs starting in July, leading to a contraction in US crude and condensate production in 2026. Consequently, reduced shale activity will weaken US associated natural gas supply, providing support to Henry Hub natural gas prices. While OPEC+ is poised to gain market share in 2025, stabilizing the market at $60 Brent in 2026 would require the alliance not only to reverse current production increases, but to implement further cuts.

Speaker:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

This podcast was recorded on 17, April 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4953411-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Changing dynamics of natural gas power generation demand are at play for summer 2025, while stronger production response is likely delayed to 2026. We expect up to 1.1 Bcf/day of gas-to-coal switching in summer 2025, however we flag risks of higher prices subject to weather risks and renewable availability. In 2026, we expect increase in production to alleviate such risks and push prices lower. Lastly, we address what the recession risks may mean for the US natural gas market.

Speakers:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

Otar Dgebuadze, Vice President, Global Commodities Research

This podcast was recorded on 11, April 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4936692-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Our Global FX Strategists debrief a volatile week for currency markets - including key takeaways on the policy front and what challenges still lie ahead from a global macro perspective. They also discuss the the details of the recent USD sell-off, as well as expectations for USD/CNH going forward.

Speakers:

This podcast was recorded on 11 April 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4954262-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

US Rates strategists Jay Barry, Srini Ramaswamy, Phoebe White, and Ipek Ozil discuss the historic volatility observed in US rates markets over the past week and its drivers. Treasury market liquidity deteriorated, and swap spreads narrowed sharply, but the cash/futures basis and repo rates were relatively stable.

Speakers:

This podcast was recorded on 10 April 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4955364-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In the debut Asia edition of the ‘At Any Rate’ podcast, Sajjid Chinoy and Arindam Sandilya discuss the outlook for EM Asia macro and markets in the wake of US reciprocal tariffs.

Key topics discussed:

This podcast was recorded on Apr 10, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at

https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4951821-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4944945-0,  https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4950529-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4952039-0 and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4950917-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

During this commodities edition, Tracey discusses the implications of Liberation Day tariffs for agri markets and the outlook ahead.

Speaker:

Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research

This podcast was recorded on 4, April 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4949701-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In this week’s At Any Rate Podcasts, our strategists Meera Chandan, Saad Siddiqui and Patrick Locke discuss the outlooks for the broad dollar, G10 FX and EM FX following major tariff announcements and subsequent stress in risk markets.

Speakers:

This podcast was recorded on 4 April 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4949817-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In this podcast, Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss their the reaction of European rates markets to the tariff announcement this week.

This podcast was recorded on 04 April 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4949749-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4946392-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.