FICC Focus

In this episode of the FX Moment podcast, recorded in Hong Kong, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Gary Ng, Senior Economist at Natixis CIB in Hong Kong, discuss Asia FX in 4Q and into 2027, with a focus on the yuan and the yen. The bottom line is that structural yuan bulls were validated into 4Q and may extend into 2027, with the 6.65 dollar-yuan reference value credible in the near to mid-term. This is mainly about a yuan-supportive balance of payments position and yuan appeal on global diversification strategies, while relative yield differentials are less of a driver for that currency pair. On the yen and on dollar-yen in particular, Gary and Audrey touched on the mixed drivers and considerations and on what may be the the best avenue to sustained yen strength beyond a turn in the US dollar.The FX Moment podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

With nominal GDP running above 6% year to date and earnings season kicking off, Mike Medeiros, macro strategist at Wellington Management, explains why corporate profitability has been well-supported and why that support may be fading, in his return to the Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast, hosted by Ira Jersey, chief interest-rate strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence. The wide-ranging discussion on the macro backdrop heading into 4Q and beyond covers the Fed’s hiking cycle under Chairman Kevin Warsh, the shift away from forward guidance and why current policy rates may still not be sufficiently restrictive to bring core inflation sustainably back to 2%. Mike and Ira also dig into the Treasury-market selloff — now potentially in the “eighth inning” — tighter financial conditions and what below-trend growth in 2027 could mean for risk assets. The episode also tackles the upcoming midterm elections, implications for AI regulation and the data-center build-out, the fiscal drag from the One Big Beautiful Act and long-term debt sustainability concerns. Finally, Mike shares his medium-term asset allocation views, making the case for real assets over financial assets amid structurally higher rates.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

With the Federal Reserve confronting persistent inflation, strong demand and questions about how much further rates may need to rise, investors are also watching for potentially significant changes to the central bank’s communications and balance-sheet framework. Richard Clarida, Pacific Investment Management Co. managing director and global economic advisor and former Federal Reserve vice chair, joins Bloomberg Intelligence interest-rate strategists Ira Jersey and Will Hoffman to discuss that and more on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Clarida explains why Kevin Warsh inherited an FOMC that had already shifted sharply toward tighter policy, why eliminating formal forward guidance doesn’t mean Fed officials will stop signaling their views and why the September rate increase reflected a committee increasingly focused on bringing inflation back to 2%. The group also discusses how the Fed could shrink its balance sheet while retaining an ample-reserves regime, whether its portfolio should move toward a barbell of Treasury bills and longer-dated securities and the potential role for temporary open-market operations. They close with a discussion of how AI-related capital spending is making the economy less interest-rate sensitive and why the Fed may ultimately need to tighten further if strong demand doesn’t moderate on its own.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Credit and high yield are in the red for the year after a two-month selloff. Will 4Q deliver gains or more losses, and why? On this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence global head of credit strategy, discusses the results of the BI 4Q26 Investor Survey and the market outlook with George Flynn, high-yield portfolio manager at New Capital, EFG International. They cover valuations and central bank actions, along with distress and default rates. The podcast also examines survey results on investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, supply forecasts and relative value across asset classes (high grade vs. junk), geographies (Europe vs. US), ratings and sectors. 

Asset allocators should prepare for continued bouts of volatility, as negative asymmetry in market fundamentals, valuations and technicals is causing investors to trim equity exposure and move up the capital stack. Trevor Slaven, Global Head of Asset Allocation and Multi-Asset Portfolio Solutions at Barings, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist, to assess the AI-induced transformation taking place across the global economy. Slaven and Sassower explore the impact of IT-related capital expenditure on labor markets, inflation expectations and corporate margins, with high-beta asset classes exposed to greater downside risk.

Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

With global bond yields at multi-decade highs and markets pricing further central-bank tightening, investors are reassessing the relative value of rates, equities and currencies. Christian Lawrence, chief cross-asset strategist at Rabobank, joins Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest rate strategist Ira Jersey to discuss that and more on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Lawrence argues that the recent surge in Treasury yields has been driven more by real rates and strong growth than by rising inflation expectations, and says the latest move increasingly resembles a pain trade that could partially reverse. The two discuss how higher yields are already weighing on market breadth beneath equity indexes, why large-cap companies with strong free cash flow may remain better positioned and how changing hedge ratios and interest-rate differentials are influencing the dollar. They also examine whether markets are pricing too many rate hikes from the Federal Reserve and other major central banks, the global trend toward looser fiscal policy and why relative-value trades may offer better opportunities than outright directional bets while volatility remains elevated.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

“You want to buy the security based on this yield, but you have to protect against the risks,” says Mike Vranos, CEO and founder of Ellington Management Group. “What you see is many investors just ignore the option they’re short or, in the extreme example, they ignore the left tail risk,” Vranos adds when discussing how to deliver alpha in securitized products. He joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Erica Adelberg and Noel Hebert on the latest episode of Credit Crunch to discuss innovation in the mortgage-backed market during his time at Kidder Peabody and later at Ellington, the rise of non-qualified mortgages and the merits of CLO equity. The three discuss the role of insurance capital, investment discipline and where value resides in the current landscape, before closing on the importance of philanthropy.

The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

“’Co-op first, ask questions later’ is down a bit from its peak, though not dead,” observes John Sobolewski, Global Chair of Latham & Watkins’ Liability Management Practice, as he addresses the latest dynamic between debtors and lenders in distressed situations. In this episode, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Negisa Balluku and Phil Brendel sit down with John to explore the current state of Liability Management Exercises (LMEs) and why stakeholders are ultimately motivated to find negotiated resolutions over value-destroying, multiyear litigation. The conversation unpacks the delicate mechanics of these negotiations, including why repeat market players will give minority holdouts a fair shake but “hold the line” against nuisance value to avoid giving an inch that turns into a yard. John also breaks down the massive bid-ask spreads — think “Grand Canyon” — between debtors and creditors, why debt funds continue to resist taking back equity, and the software sector’s growing interest in LM solutions. 

The podcast concludes (53:10) with BI’s Noel Hebert joining Negisa and Phil for a roundup of their latest research on Air Baltic, QVC, DISH DBS, DISH Wireless, Hughes Satellite Systems, Telesat, and Xerox.

The State of Distressed Debt podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

With AI investment accelerating, energy costs rising and Treasury yields pushing to multi-decade highs, investors are confronting a market where few assets look obviously cheap. Jimmy Chang, chief investment officer of Rockefeller Global Family Office, joins Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest rate strategist Ira Jersey to discuss that and more on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Chang explains how the extraordinary scale of AI-related capital spending is supporting economic growth while also adding inflation pressure through shortages of power, semiconductors and other inputs. The two discuss why 10-year Treasury yields above 5% may be consistent with strong nominal growth, when extending duration could become attractive and how additional Federal Reserve tightening might ultimately slow the economy. They also examine the record amount of cash in money-market funds, why Chang doesn’t view it simply as “dry powder” and how higher yields are reinforcing a K-shaped economy. The episode closes with a longer-term discussion of AI investment, potential overcapacity, power demand and why family-office portfolios may benefit from diversification across bonds, precious metals and other hard assets.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.