The Credit Edge by Bloomberg Intelligence

The US economy heading for a potentially “turbulent landing” may spell trouble for junk bonds, according to Colleen Cunniffe, head of global taxable credit research at Vanguard. “We’re actually relatively cautious on high yield at the moment from a broad perspective,” Cunniffe tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Himanshu Bakshi in the latest Credit Edge podcast. The world’s second-largest asset manager prefers debt rated BBB, bonds from utilities and banks, as well as asset-backed securities in the auto sector. Cunniffe and Bakshi also discuss commercial mortgage-backed securities, the impact of consumer stress on bank asset quality and emerging markets. 

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Lending directly to middle-market US-based companies is the best opportunity in credit markets, offering double-digit yields, according to Randy Schwimmer, vice chairman at Churchill Asset Management. “We probably only have a small handful of lenders that we’re competing against,” Schwimmer tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike Holland in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “This right now is undiscovered value that is hiding in plain sight,” added Schwimmer, whose firm specializes in mid-market debt deals. Schwimmer and Holland also discuss loan margin and covenant trends, fundraising, private credit innovation, the impact of higher-for-longer rates and regulation. 

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High-grade US corporate bond issuance will rise again in 2025, building on this year’s record-setting pace, according to Goldman Sachs. “There’s a lot of growth in the economy that needs to take place, as well as all of the refi,” Jonny Fine, Goldman’s global head of investment grade debt tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Arnold Kakuda in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Refinancing will account for the bulk of the sales, while infrastructure finance and buyouts will boost volume as the economy expands. Fine and Kakuda also discuss the rise of private credit, how regulation and Basel endgame will affect bond markets and the differences between bank financing in the US and Europe, including Additional Tier 1 bonds. 

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Private debt doesn’t offer high enough returns to justify the growing risks, according to Pimco. “Fundamentals are deteriorating in more levered portions of the credit markets,” said Mohit Mittal, chief investment officer for core strategies at Pimco. “You’re seeing more complacency, so you have to be very thoughtful, you have to be very careful.” Investment-grade direct lending pays only half the premium needed to compensate for worse liquidity than in public markets and rising fundamental concerns, Mittal tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Irene Garcia Perez and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Stephen Flynn in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Mittal and Flynn also discuss the outlook for the telecoms and the cable media sector, including consolidation and deleveraging. 

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Schroders Capital is seeing growing interest in private debt from investors looking to diversify as returns in public markets decline. It’s finding the best relative value in commercial real estate where over-exposed regional banks can no longer lend. “The most interesting opportunity, I think is looking where there’s emotional bias and fear,” says Michelle Russell-Dowe, co-head of private debt and credit alternatives at the asset manager, in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Schroders also likes residential real estate and equipment finance, Russell-Dowe tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit analyst David Havens. Russell-Dowe and Havens also discuss new investors in private credit like retail, high-net-worth individuals and family offices. 

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Blackstone Inc. expects private credit to balloon to $30 trillion in size, fueled by the energy transition, housing and data center lending. “We’re really expanding the opportunity set from quite a narrow part of the market to really a mainstream part,” said Rob Horn, global head of infrastructure and asset-based credit at Blackstone. “Not only can we get hard-asset collateral — which differs from what they get in the public market — but we also get a premium return,” Horn tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit analyst Tolu Alamutu in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Horn and Alamutu also discuss the outlook for residential real estate. “It’s still going to be a decent year, despite the fact that we have this troubling geopolitical risk backdrop,” says Alamutu. 

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The $1.7 trillion private credit market faces several challenges after years of rapid growth, according Ana Arsov, global head of private credit at Moody’s Ratings. “It’s going to be very important to get more transparency from the banks about is there some kind of synthetic leverage, additional leverage, coming to this market,” Arsov tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit analyst David Havens in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Arsov and Havens also debate the impact of exchange-traded funds and broader implications of private debt stress. “It just doesn’t seem like the risk-transmission mechanism is nearly as potent in the way that private credit is structured today, as it has been in maybe some other areas that have caused systemic problems in the past,” says Havens.

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Victory for Kamala Harris in the US election would boost the bonds of basic industries, capital goods companies and utilities, according to Matt Mish, head of credit strategy at UBS. “A lot of that we think is tied to the preservation of the inflation reduction act and support of many of the Biden-era stimulus policies,” Mish tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit analyst Julie Hung in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Conversely, a win for Democrats would be a drag on debt in the telecoms, tech, banks and auto sectors. Victory for Donald Trump would be positive for energy, autos and aerospace defense, Mish adds. Also in this episode, Mish and Hung debate the outlook for US consumers and stress in private credit markets. 

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