“There is one AAA bond that has taken a loss so far in CMBS. There will be plenty more.” Waterfall Asset Management’s Head of ABS Strategy Keerthi Raghavan didn’t mince words in laying out his view of the office real estate market, one of the few corners of the credit universe offering significant distressed opportunities. Raghavan, speaking with Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Phil Brendel, examined the widely different segments of the commercial real estate market, his data-centric approach to investing and strategies employed amid distressed situations (5:50). Prior to that, Hebert and Brendel highlighted the risks investors take when the market speculation is high, evidenced by historically tight spreads and a dearth of distressed debt. The podcast concludes with BI’s Negisa Balluku joining the two analysts for a round table discussion covering Ligado Networks, Serta Simmons, Party City, Hertz, Incora, and CommScope(1:25:40).

Key interview take aways and time stamps:

Incoming pro-growth policy, while inflationary in nature, could result in a strong credit environment in the eyes of PineBridge Investments’ Global Head of Credit, Steven Oh. Oh joins Bloomberg Intelligence corporate credit strategists Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this episode of Credit Crunch to walk through various macroeconomic pathways. The conversation touches on central-bank policy expectations and the geopolitical climate, before diving into portfolio composition, sector exposures and the current default landscape.

The path of least resistance continues to be cyclically driven dollar-bullish and euro-dollar-bearish views into early 2025, but that’s a narrative that’s priced in, extended and crowded. Host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief G-10 FX strategist, talks to Constantin Bolz, head of G10 FX for UBS’ Chief Investment Office, about what could trigger a turnaround in the euro-dollar fortunes in 2025, with several “known unknown” potential game changers when it comes to how much dollar upside is likely. The two also touch on non-dollar, strong G10 currency convictions, with Bolz favoring the Aussie, the yen and sterling in diversification strategies.

The short end of the curve may be better positioned than longer-dated bonds as the interest rates are likely to stay high for longer, with president-elect Donald Trump’s policies potentially amplifying the challenges of bringing inflation to the 2% target, says Henry Song, portfolio manager for Diamond Hill Capital Management. On the latest episode of Credit Crunch, Song and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier discuss real positive yields, favorable carry for shorter-dated credit across corporates and securitized products as well as housing-related credit, thinking through portfolio construction and technology in trading.

Credit Crunch is part of the FICC Focus podcast series.

A resilient macroeconomic environment, along with rising M&A activity, have the direct-lending space primed for additional growth in the coming years. Curt Lueker, managing director and head of direct lending at Marathon Asset Management, joins Noel Hebert and Sam Geier of Bloomberg Intelligence on this episode of Credit Crunch to discuss how the firm is capitalizing on its expertise in the core middle-market sector. The conversation dives into the firm’s recent partnership with Webster Bank, the investment committee process, secondary markets, central bank policy and much more.

Markets are front-loading the effect of potential Trump policy changes in 2025, which will keep volatility elevated says Ben Emons, founder and outsourced chief investment officer of Fed Watch Advisors. Emons is joined by Bloomberg Intelligence’s Ira Jersey, chief US rate strategist, and Will Hoffman, senior US and Canada rates strategy associate, to discuss the outcome of the December FOMC meeting and the implications for markets in the year ahead. They discuss moves across domestic markets, including curve behavior and drivers in Treasuries, as well as the potential for additional volatility across global markets in 2025. The trio also hits on cross-currency hedging costs and direction, as well as technical adjustments to Fed policy, as it attempts to alleviate some stress in funding markets.

A new administration and the specter of inflation are among the levers for municipal bonds moving into next year. On this month’s Masters of the Muniverse, Eric Kazatsky and co-host Karen Altamirano are joined by three bank strategists with differing takes on the municipal landscape for 2025.Peter Degroot, head of municipal research and strategy at JPMorgan; Vikram Rai, who leads municipal-markets strategy at Wells Fargo; and Mikhail Foux, chief of municipal research at Barclays reflect on this year’s muni performance and discuss their calls for the year ahead.

Private credit has expanded toward $2 trillion for direct lending and related markets, with another $5 trillion in asset-based finance, making for ample lender opportunities in the view of Daniel Pietrzak, KKR partner and global head of private credit. Pietrzak rejoined Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on the latest episode of Credit Crunch to talk about the market’s growth, the current risk climate and how the incoming presidential administration may influence the market opportunity. They also examine the recent growth in investment grade private credit, the risk transfer market and prospects for an active secondary.

With credit markets enjoying a strong 2024 and with many uncertainties, charting the course for 2025 is a challenge. Will US trade policies slow Fed cuts and will ECB easing stay the course as priced, and what will this mean for credit? Will stubborn US yields filter into Europe? In this episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, chief European credit strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Marc Rovers, Head of European Credit at Legal & General Investment Management, discuss the state of credit and the 2025 outlook for US and Europe.

They tackle relative value across credit on both sides of the Atlantic; high yield and high grade; fund flows and supply; defaults and ratings; fundamental and curve views. They also detail the risks across the US, UK and Europe, including German and French politics.

Emerging-market central banks have historically followed the Federal Reserve, yet 2025 will be a year of divergence as monetary and fiscal policy responses evolve. Sergey Goncharov, portfolio manager and head of fixed income Americas at Vontobel, joins Bloomberg Intelligence chief emerging market fixed income strategist Damian Sassower to discuss his year-ahead outlook for the EM fixed-income asset class. Goncharov and Sassower touch on issues ranging from US protectionism and Chinese stimulus to European growth and EM fund flows.