FICC Focus

To illustrate how uniquely challenging the restructuring experience is for the unacquainted, C Street Advisory Group founder and CEO Jon Henes recalled a client CEO’s sentiment after complex, hardball restructuring negotiations: “Every time we walk into a room ... I feel like I’m in one big game of poker. Except you know what your cards are and you know what my cards are and you know what everybody in the room’s cards are and so do they. The only person who doesn’t know what anybody’s cards are is me ... And I’m the CEO of the company.” Henes sits down with Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Negisa Balluku and Phil Brendel to explore boardroom dynamics (including a Wellman Chapter 11 retrospective) around those “most consequential moments,” managing fast-moving leaks by controlling the narrative, the intersection of Big Law and AI, and his outlook on LMEs and bankruptcies. The podcast concludes (1:24:00) with BI’s Noel Hebert joining Negisa and Phil to discuss the latest developments in Incora, Serta, First Brands, Optimum Communications and DISH DBS.

The State of Distressed Debt podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Darrell Duffie, the Adams Distinguished Professor of Management and Finance at Stanford Graduate School of Business, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Ira Jersey on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast to discuss how much the Federal Reserve can realistically shrink its balance sheet under Chair Kevin Warsh. Duffie argues that the real constraint isn’t on the asset side, but on the liability side of the Fed’s balance sheet, especially reserve balances, paper currency and the Treasury General Account. The two examine how payment-system needs, liquidity regulations and banks’ operational demand for reserves limit how far the Fed can go and why changes to those frameworks would be necessary for any meaningful reduction in balance-sheet size. They also discuss whether the Fed should rely more on traditional temporary open-market operations, the case for shifting the asset mix toward Treasury bills and away from mortgage-backed securities, and how intraday overdrafts or liquidity-saving mechanisms could reduce reserve demand over time. The episode closes with a discussion of stablecoins, why they may increase demand for reserves at the margin and why Duffie believes they are unlikely to transform the domestic payments system anytime soon.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

In this episode of FX Moment, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Win Thin, chief economist at Bank of Nassau 1982 Limited, discuss the US dollar outlook into 2H. They acknowledge the return of economics and yields as key FX drivers which implies that dollar strength may be the path of least resistance, at least in 3Q, and for as long as US economic exceptionalism dominates. Win and Audrey also share respective views on Fed policy, with low market conviction in the debate about rate cuts vs. rate hikes associated with low conviction about the near-term dollar view. Dollar-yen and FX views outside the dollar box, including EMFX, are also part of Win and Audrey’s discussion.

Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Credit and high yield recovered all losses due to the Iran war in 2Q. Will 3Q keep delivering gains, and why? Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence global head of credit strategy, discusses the results of the BI 3Q26 Investor Survey and the market outlook with David Fancourt, High Yield Fund Manager at M&G Investments. They discuss valuations and central bank actions, along with distress and default rates. This podcast also covers survey results on investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, supply forecasts and relative value across asset classes (high grade vs. junk), geography (Europe vs. US), ratings and sectors.
The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

“When you just think about the distribution of outcomes on corporate bonds from these levels of spreads, the cost of getting a few of them wrong can wipe out a quarter, or even a year of alpha in these sort of lower-return opportunity type environments,” says Connor Fitzgerald, fixed income portfolio manager for Wellington Management. Fitzgerald joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast and discusses his cautious but constructive credit view, with spreads offering limited compensation for risk, particularly in investment grade (IG). The two talk defensive positioning, disciplined security selection, positive convexity and patience for better entry points to drive alpha, as well as longer-term IG supports including demographics and higher yields. AI-driven corporate capex funding and potential investor indigestion, fiscal dominance and balancing bottom-up and top-down views are also discussed.

Global credit markets swung through war and peace, making strategic insights essential for the second half of the year. Bloomberg Intelligence’s credit strategists have their sights set on 2H, but what do their outlooks hold? In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence’s global head of credit strategy, hosts BI’s global credit strategy team to discuss key research, data and views from around the world. Basel Al-Waqayan (Middle East), Tim Tan and Jason Lee (Asia), Reto Bachmann (structured credit), Heema Patel (Europe) and Sam Geier (US) share their outlooks and the key themes shaping their regions. Access their research on the Bloomberg Terminal at BI STRTA, BI STRTE, BI STRTN and BI EMFIG.

The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Bloomberg Intelligence Chief European Rates Strategist Huw Worthington joins Ira Jersey on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast to discuss the latest moves from the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and global rate markets. Worthington explains why the ECB’s recent rate hike may already look too aggressive now that oil and gas prices have fallen back, and why the market may be overpricing further tightening if euro-area inflation undershoots target in 2027 and 2028. The two also examine why Europe’s growth backdrop remains weaker than the US, how the ECB’s single inflation mandate differs from the Fed’s broader framework, and why those differences matter for yield curves and market pricing. They also discuss the UK gilt market, including the impact of political turnover, fiscal constraints and leadership changes on long-end yields, as well as the outlook for peripheral spreads in Europe. The episode closes with a look at anomalies in US SOFR curve pricing, including why Bloomberg Intelligence sees current expectations for multiple Fed hikes, followed quickly by cuts, as difficult to justify.

“LLMs give us the opportunity to kind of rethink how much expected skill we can get out of our tools and techniques,” says Jeffrey Rosenberg, managing director and senior fixed income portfolio manager for BlackRock Systematic. “If deep fundamental value investing is dedicating 10,000 hours to create ... concentrated portfolios based on an expectation of high degrees of skill, maybe we can do something similar because the technology allows us to.” This is an evolution from a model focused on maximizing small advantages, according to Rosenberg, who joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast. The two discuss rates decorrelation, systematic’s peanut-butter-cup moment and iShares Systematic Alternatives Active ETF (IALT), the company’s latest liquid systematic-strategy offering.

The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Emerging market credit index futures improve liquidity and balance-sheet efficiency, yet they also open the door to a wider range of tactical and relative-value trading opportunities. Lee Bartholomew, global head of derivative markets at Deutsche Börse, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief EM fixed income strategist, to assess the evolution of Eurex-listed EM credit index futures, with a focus on market structure and investor adoption. Bartholomew and Sassower discuss the potential for portfolio hedging, smart-beta overlays, basis trading and short positioning, as the universe of exchange-traded and unfunded EM credit exposure evolves.

With Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Federal Reserve chair behind him, the discourse can move to what it signals for monetary policy. Bloomberg Economics Chief US Economist Anna Wong joins Ira Jersey on this edition of Macro Matters and argues that while Warsh avoided explicit forward guidance, his emphasis was on price stability, skepticism toward forecast precision and support for a shorter policy statement all point to a more hawkish lean than many investors expected. 

They discuss whether Warsh is pushing the Fed back toward a more Greenspan-like communication style, why she believes the dot plot could eventually disappear in favor of broader forecast ranges, and how task forces on the balance sheet, inflation and data reliability could shape future policy debates. They also examine the outlook for inflation and the labor market, why Wong sees a rate hike this year as a mistake given her expectation for headline and core PCE to fall back toward target, and how Bloomberg Intelligence views current SOFR futures pricing as internally inconsistent. The episode closes with a discussion of the global backdrop, including softer oil prices, tighter policy abroad and the implications for the dollar and the US disinflation outlook.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.