Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton to discuss their view that hopes of a court-led off-ramp to the US war on trade are overstated. They maintain that the risks are skewed toward higher, not lower, tariffs. However, the trajectory of growth is complicated by prior front-loading and there is debate about how to track resilience. Weakness could presage recession, muddle-through, or rebound. The latter scenario risks Fed cuts only to be followed by hikes.

This podcast was recorded on May 30, 2025.

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Our forecasts are in flux as a result of uncertainty around the transmission of the trade war shock and the potential for more policy surprises. That said, the data flow this week aligned with our forecast of continued resilience in April activity and May surveys, alongside a rebound in May sentiment readings from depressed levels. Our forecasts are in flux as a result of uncertainty around the transmission of the trade war shock and the potential for more policy surprises. That said, the data flow this week aligned with our forecast of continued resilience in April activity and May surveys, alongside a rebound in May sentiment readings from depressed levels. 

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 23 May 2025.

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The increased risks of recession and signs of significant disruptions in the goods market have likely played a role in getting the US to back off its draconian trade war policies, culminating this week in a substantial markdown in the tariff on China. We  no longer see a US recession as likely but still see growth being weak over the rest of the year and also note downside risks if the trade war re-escalates.

This podcast was recorded on May 16, 2025.

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The hard activity data continue to show resilient growth in the first four months of the year. We maintain our recession call owing to 1) front-loading that will impart a drag going forward, 2) material trade war drags that will further damp activity, and 3) sentiment that is falling sharply and risks becoming a drag on its own. Trade war news this week does not move the needle in our view. The Fed is equally balanced on rising risks to both sides of its dual mandate and unlikely to act absent a break in the data.

This podcast was recorded on May 9, 2025.

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Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton discuss how the activity data continues to show resilience, an encouraging development that will help weather the coming US policy storm. Whether it is enough to support the transition to the trade war is the central question. Regardless, even absent recession, the risk of an extended period of soft growth should also be a concern. One factor underlying this risk is a lack of potential policy offsets, particularly in the US where the Fed is likely to remain on extended hold.

This podcast was recorded on May 2, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss key takeaways from the latest Global Inflation monitor and the impact of tariffs on inflation in the US and the rest of the world. After a broad-based upside surprise in January, core inflation has shown a similar widespread moderation. The US CPI data show limited impact from tariffs through March, but we look for core inflation to jump to a 6%ar this quarter and next. At the same time, inflationary impulses in the rest of the world appear tilted to the downside; a pullback in US front-loading demand along with a decoupling of US-China trade should put downward pressure on goods prices as excess supply is redirected elsewhere. Absent a meaningful retaliation, we see core inflation outside the US moderating to 2.5-3%ar over 2H25.

This podcast was recorded on April 30, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4966015-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4956489-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4960640-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures  for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The hard data continue to highlight strength but it increasingly looks like we are reaching peak front-loading. The survey data are falling faster and point to a material deceleration. Whether this turns to recession will depend on the degree to which the US backpedals its war on trade. Beyond any near-term outcome, the risk is that the dismantling of the global trading order will do permanent damage.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 25 April 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

China economists Haibin Zhu and TingTing Ge join Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the impact of a 100%+ US tariff rate on China's cost competitiveness on the US market and the scope for US-China trade to decouple as a result. With recent tariff hikes on China going well beyond our expectations of a hike to 60% ,we also discuss our latest assessment of the associated drags on China’s growth and what policymakers might do to mitigate the trade shock. 

This podcast was recorded on April 24, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4958251-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton discuss how the goods sector activity boomed through 1Q but the signal to take is far less clear, particularly as sentiment looks to be souring. We maintain our recession call but also see the uniqueness of the event and note that timing is uncertain in an otherwise resilient expansion. Central banks turn a bit more cautious.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 04/17/2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton and Jahangir Aziz to discuss the post-Liberation Day back-peddling that has led some to breathe a sigh of relief. Not us. A 10% universal tax is still a very large shock (7.5x the 2018-19 trade war) and the huge 145% tax (and rising) on China is prohibitive. You cannot stop trade between the world’s two largest economies and not expect pain everywhere. We maintain our call for a 60% likelihood of a US/global recession.

This podcast was recorded on 04/11/2025.

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