Global Data Pod

Global Data Pod episodes:

• 05.03.2024

  Global Data Pod Weekender: From tracking to hoping

  With growth and inflation both surprising to the upside in recent months (in the US and more broadly globally), confidence in the path to central bank easing has been shaken. In signaling that rate cuts are still on the near-horizon,...

  
• 05.03.2024

  Global Data Pod US: Data Drop – April Jobs Report Recap

  Speakers: Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy   Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the April jobs report.   This podcast was recorded on 3 May 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only....

  
• 05.01.2024

  Global Data Pod Research Rap: Western Europe’s growth lift and inflation challenge

  Greg Fuzesi and Allan Monks  join Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the nascent recoveries in the Euro area and UK,  their varied implications for inflation and expectations for monetary policy easing. Despite raising our sights on Western European growth in recent...

  
• 04.26.2024

  Global Data Pod Weekender: Living with higher yields

  In contrast to past episodes of yield spikes we believe it is unlikely that the recent rise in global bond yields will be reversed as markets sustainably shift up expectations for growth and the policy rate path for 2024-25. Next...

  
• 04.25.2024

  Global Data Pod US: Data Drop – Global Inflation Report Recap

  Speakers:  Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economist Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy   Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Economist, Global Emerging Markets and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the monthly global inflation report and unpack implications for central bank monetary policy.   This podcast was recorded...

  
• 04.24.2024

  Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor

  Nora Szentivanyi, Michael Hanson and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss their takeaways from the global CPI reports for March and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for inflation and  monetary policy.    This podcast was recorded on April 24, 2024. This communication is...

  
• 04.19.2024

  Global Data Pod Weekender: I wanna take you higher

  Another week of stronger-than-expected growth data now has first-quarter global GDP tracking roughly a %-point above trend, similar to the robust outcome posted last year. Expectations remain for a deceleration but are we missing something more inherently robust? If so,...

  
• 04.12.2024

  Global Data Pod Weekender: Three points make a trend

  Strong growth alongside elevated inflation raises risks of both a high-for-long soft landing and a boil-the-frog higher-for-longer hard landing. Stronger-than-expected US CPI for a third straight month pushes out pricing of Fed cuts. Spillover to risk markets and to the...

  
• 04.05.2024

  Global Data Pod Weekender: Ease on (further) down the road

  Continued strong growth and robust labor markets alongside strong profits raise the likelihood of a longer expansion even if sticky inflation keeps odds of high-for-longer rates elevated. This week’s global PMIs and US payroll report underscore ongoing resilience, likely pushing...

  
• 04.05.2024

  Global Data Pod US: Data Drop – March Jobs Report Recap

  Speakers:  Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist   Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy   Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the March jobs report.   This podcast was recorded on 5 April 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only....

  
• 04.02.2024

  Global Data Pod Research Rap: Disentangling US employment divergences

  Michael Hanson and Murat Tasci analyze the factors that can —and cannot — account for the growing divergence between payroll and household employment, including immigration    This podcast was recorded on 04/04/2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can...

  
• 03.28.2024

  Global Data Pod Weekender: Looking for a pickup in global capex

  Hints of a pickup in global capex are emerging in activity data and surveys, with next week’s March global PMI likely to show positive news on manufacturing. On another front we remain confident in our forecast for high-for-long policy rates,...

  
• 03.26.2024

  Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation remains sticky at its core

  Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss their takeaways from the latest CPI reports globally and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for inflation and monetary policy. Early 2024 data provide strong support for our view of a disinflation stall...

  
• 03.25.2024

  Global Data Pod: Data Drop – February Inflation Report Recap

  Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Economist, Global Emerging Markets and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the February global inflation report. This podcast was recorded on March 25, 2024 This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related...

  
• 03.22.2024

  Global Data Pod Weekender: Diversity and inclusion

  This week displayed significant diversity in central bank actions amid a clear-cut positive signal from the data flow (DM PMIs and China activity). While central bank diversity is an important theme, the dominant signal for markets is the hawkish guidance...

  
• 03.21.2024

  Global Data Pod Research Rap: The economic effects of surging US immigration

  Michael Feroli joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the economic effects of surging US immigration. Immigration has soared over the last few years, profoundly affecting some of the widely-followed economic statistics. It’s been important to the surprising pace of job growth,...

  
• 03.15.2024

  Global Data Pod Weekender: Slouching toward high-for-long

  The news flow supports our core views on growth resilience and core inflation stickiness as we turn into the new year. As central banks process this news we expect a DM easing to take hold at midyear but prove shallow....

  
• 03.08.2024

  Global Data Pod US: Data Drop – February Jobs Report Recap

  Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content  Strategy, discuss the February jobs report.     Speakers:Michael Feroli, Chief US EconomistSamantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy   This podcast was recorded on March 8, 2024.   This communication is provided for information purposes...

  
• 03.08.2024

  Global Data Pod Weekender: A good week

  The global expansion looks to be broadening with both sectoral and geographic growth gaps closing. Resilience fades recession risks but keeps inflation risks on the table. In a Goldilocks report this week, US job growth remained strong last month but...

  
• 03.05.2024

  Global Data Pod EM Edge: No changes to flight plans

  Katie Marney and Nicolaie Alexandru discuss recent developments in the EM Edge economies. The outlook had turned more favorable for the EM Edge, aided by macro adjustments and a supportive external environment. Since then, markets have priced out earlier easing...

  
• 03.01.2024

  Global Data Pod Weekender: Testing confidence

  This week’s activity reports suggest that global growth is resilient and forming a broader base as we start the new year. Inflation readings point to stickiness. Next week’s Powell testimony and ECB meeting should show these developments tempering but not...

  
• 02.29.2024

  Global Data Pod Research Rap: Data Drop – January Inflation Report Recap

  Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Economist, Global Emerging Markets and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the January global inflation report. Speakers:Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economic and Policy Research Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy This podcast was recorded on 29 February 2024. This communication...

  
• 02.27.2024

  Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor: Sticky around 3%

  Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss their takeaways from the global January CPI reports and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for inflation and  monetary policy.    This podcast was recorded on February 27, 2024. This communication is provided for...

  
• 02.23.2024

  Global Data Pod Weekender: A bit better Europe

  This week delivered an encouraging rise in Western European flash PMIs alongside signs that the Euro area consumer may be waking up. This is encouraging, but the survey also points to a structural malaise in German industry. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Michael Hanson This podcast...

  
• 02.16.2024

  Global Data Pod Weekender: The new year starts with a bang

  The upside surprises to January US inflation need to be viewed in the context of considerable seasonal noise. That said, there is growing evidence globally that a phase of sharply slowing goods price inflation is ending. And details of this...

  
• 02.09.2024

  Global Data Pod Weekender: A hinge

  We enter the new year with the US and global economies displaying healthy momentum amid widespread optimism that a substantial ease by DM central banks has been delayed but not deferred. The sustainability of this year’s significant rise in risk...

  
• 02.08.2024

  Global Data Pod Research Rap: Sizing up China’s policy easing

  China economists Haibin Zhu and Grace Ng join Nora Szentivanyi to discuss China’s policy easing measures to stabilize growth. Using 2015-16 as a benchmark, a more modest scale of easing this time around reflects a shift in focus to high-quality...

  
• 02.06.2024

  Global Data Pod Research Rap: US core inflation to bolster Fed confidence

  Dan Silver joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the outlook for US core inflation and implications for the Fed.  The trend for core  inflation moderated in 2023 but the CPI and PCE measures sent differing signals about how close inflation was...

  
• 02.02.2024

  Global Data Pod Weekender: Powell sees shadow of growth, no cuts until midyear

  Insufficient clarity on the disinflation path along with surprising strength in the economy and labor market keeps the Fed wanting more data before cutting rates. The global industrial sector remains sluggish for now but got some positive news in the...

  
• 02.02.2024

  Global Data Pod US: Data Drop – January Jobs Report Recap

  Speakers:  Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy   Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the January jobs report.   This podcast was recorded on Feb. 2, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only....

  
• 01.26.2024

  Global Data Pod Weekender: Hot and cold

  The growth picture is mixed but on balance shows the expansion ending last year on solid footing. Robust US GDP growth along with a welcome move up in the January flash DM PMIs supports our call for trend-like growth last...

  
• 01.24.2024

  Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor

  Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the main takeaways from the December CPI reports and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for inflation and  monetary policy.  This podcast was recorded on 24 January 2024. This communication is provided for...

  
• 01.24.2024

  Global Data Pod EM Edge: On the sidelines despite easier conditions

  Katie Marney and Nicolaie Alexandru discuss recent developments in the EM Edge economies. Optimism around a soft landing persist, which would be constructive overall for frontier markets. Disinflation along with easing global financial conditions and a weaker dollar should enable...

  
• 01.23.2024

  Global Data Pod Research Rap: Shipping disruptions reignite supply chain woes

  Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the recent shipping disruptions along the Suez and Panama Canals and the implications for global supply chains and inflation. We estimate the recent surge in container shipping costs––if they persist––could add 0.7%-pts to global...

  
• 01.19.2024

  Global Data Pod Weekender: Caution warrants patience

  A strong consumer supports another solid quarterly gain in US GDP, but China imbalances are a concern and global industry continues to struggle. Central banks are acknowledging progress on disinflation but push back against 1H24 rate cuts.  Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast...

  
• 01.12.2024

  Global Data Pod Weekender: Progress and patience

  This week’s main release – the US December CPI – aligns with our forecast that core inflation is stabilizing around a 3%ar as we turn into the new year. But the Fed’s target inflation indicator – core PCE – is...

  
• 01.05.2024

  Global Data Pod Weekender: Don’t let the sound of your own wheels drive you crazy

  As we turn into 2024, the global economy continues to display resilience as well as sustained divergence in performance across sectors and markets. While optimism runs high that DM core inflation has slipped well below 3% and opens the door...

  
• 01.05.2024

  Global Data Pod US: Data Drop – December Jobs Report Recap

  Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the December jobs report. This podcast was recorded on 5 January 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures....

  
• 12.21.2023

  Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor

  Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the main takeaways from the November CPI reports and how the incoming data are shaping the near-term outlook for inflation and central banks.    This podcast was recorded on December 21, 2023. This communication is provided...

  
• 12.16.2023

  Global Data Pod Weekender: Dividing lines

  An eventful week for data points to ongoing divergences: Sectorally (mfg weakness against resilient services) and geographically (US strength against EMU weakness). A similarly eventful week for central banks opens a another divide: While the Fed goes all-in on a...

  
• 12.08.2023

  Global Data Pod Weekender: The journey is not the destination

  There are numerous paths to lower rates, each with different macro outcomes. Next week’s meetings are expected to deliver a Fed still showcasing a soft-landing but underscoring its hawkish bias in the face of resilient growth, and an ECB and BoE...

  
• 12.08.2023

  Global Data Pod US: Data Drop – November Jobs Report Recap

  Speakers:    Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy   Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the November jobs report.   This podcast was recorded on Dec. 8, 2023.   This communication is provided for information purposes only....

  
• 12.06.2023

  Global Data Pod Research Rap: EM’s path to strength, but fear not otherwise

  Nora Szentivanyi and Katie Marney discuss EM’s macro resilience that has been evident in both growth and capital flows holding up well despite this year’s tightening in US financial conditions.  Major emerging market economies are on track to grow 3.1%...

  
• 12.05.2023

  Global Data Pod: On the Edge Year-ahead

  Speakers:    Nicolaie Alexandru, EM, Economic and Policy Research Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research   Katie Marney and Nicolaie Alexandru discuss recent developments in the EM Edge economies, including the 2024 economic outlook. Growth is forecast to improve in about half of...

  
• 12.05.2023

  Global Data Pod: 2024 Macroeconomic Outlook for Western Europe—soft landings and frogs

  Ravi Balakrishnan, Raphael Brun-Aguerre, Greg Fuzesi, Morten Lund, and Allan Monks discuss their thoughts on the outlook for Western Europe. They talk through different scenarios for growth and inflation and the implications for central bank policy rate paths.   This podcast was...

  
• 12.01.2023

  Global Data Pod Weekender: Avast, trim those tails!

  Somewhat better news on both growth and inflation reduces the extreme tail risks of either a near-term break into recession or a rebound in inflation that requires further rate hikes. However, the mass of the likelihood distribution remains around our...

  
• 11.28.2023

  Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor

  Nora Szentivanyi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss the main takeaways from the October CPI reports and what to expect from here. A fall in consumer energy prices brought some relief to DM consumers last month. However, after a sharp downshift in...

  
• 11.27.2023

  Global Data Pod: UK economy and markets outlook after the Autumn Statement

  Ravi Balakrishnan, Allan Monks, Francis Diamond discuss their thoughts on the recent Autumn Statement in the UK. They talk through its economic impact, what it reveals about the fiscal and broader policy landscape in the UK, and the implications for...

  
• 11.24.2023

  Global Data Pod Weekender: Giving thanks

  We approach the end of the year thankful for a resilient global expansion that has weathered the storm of numerous adverse shocks and rapid policy tightening. But we also know that, while some may be looking to the coming months...

  
• 11.17.2023

  Global Data Pod Weekender: Juuust right? Not quite.

  Softer-than-expected inflation along with resilient consumer spending in the US has reignited the Goldilocks bid. However, a closer look shows sufficient reason to be cautious and recognize that the inflation threat is not eliminated. At the same time, a China...