Inflation is playing a dual role at present. First, as a driver of spending that is boosting the cost of living via higher energy prices. Second, as a reflection of the momentum in the underlying cycle. Central banks are taking note of both, but it's the latter that will have staying power and is thus fueling their hawkish shift.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 14 May 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.  © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

In this episode, we unpack how the war in the Middle East has been shaping the economic outlook for Azerbaijan, and why — perhaps surprisingly — it has generated some positive spillovers for Armenia too. We explore how Armenia continues to outperform growth expectations, while its external sector undergoes a structural shift toward IT and financial services that most investors are still overlooking. We then turn to the June 2026 parliamentary elections and why their outcome is directly tied to the pace of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process and the prospect of opening the Turkish border for the first time since 1993. After more than three decades of conflict, a new chapter may finally be within reach in the South Caucasus.

Speakers

Khamza Sharifzoda, EM, Economic and Policy Research

Fatih Akcelik, EM, Economic and Policy Research

Moderator: Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc, EM, Economic and Policy Research

This podcast was recorded on 13 May 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5250547-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5207471-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5165451-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

The global economy is approaching a crossroad as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and the threat of reaching operational stress levels is now only a month away. The baseline and adverse scenarios are discussed. Two key cushions are 1) a strong start to the year with momentum in manufacturing continuing into April and 2) central banks that may have turned more hawkish again but remain cautiously on hold. The ability of the US consumer to smooth as well as they did last year is debated. 

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 30 April 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.  © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Greg Fuzesi and Mike Hanson to discuss takeaways from the latest CPI reports, the outlook for inflation and central banks. March CPI reports delivered the anticipated spike in headline inflation as energy prices surged in response to the Iran conflict, pushing the three-month annualized headline CPI rate to its strongest pace in three years. Inflation outside of energy was well-behaved, with core inflation up a modest 0.19% gain last month. Although the 3%ar 3m run-rate in core inflation remains elevated, the step-down in March reinforces central bank patience through the initial leg of this oil price spike. Inflation paths are differentiated across regions, but so are central bank reaction functions. We expect Western European central banks to tilt more hawkish in response to the energy shock than the Fed.

This podcast was recorded on April 28, 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5277839-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5267518-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5261954-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

With the reversal of last week’s joint statement on opening the Strait of Hormuz and yet one more week closer to damaging quantity constraints, we reassess our adverse scenario for the outlook. Also, we consider what a Warsh Fed would look like.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 24 April 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.  © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

While not out of the woods, the tail risk around the Middle East shock has faded materially for now. This brings the conversation back to tracking the same forces for growth and inflation discussed before the war, with a dash less growth but a dash more inflation. The “not having your cake and eating it too” theme is back on the menu. The case for more hawkish central banks is made, most clearly for the Fed.  

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 17 April 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.  © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

The fragile cease-fire has not opened the strait or even ended hostilities fully, but the hint of an end keeps our outlook on a path for energy prices to hold steady before gradually drifting lower in 2H26. Absent downside tail risks, which remain large, we see supports to weather the storm. However, signs of slowing consumer spending last quarter and a March drop in surveys raise concerns.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on April 10, 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

The data in hand continue to paint a picture of solid momentum in activity at the start of the year. However, while today’s US payroll report was encouraging, the March global PMIs send a more cautionary signal that fear is building for where the expansion goes in the current quarter. From here, each week of closure in the Strait of Hormuz raises the risk considerably of a much more serious hit from the commodity shock.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 3 April 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.  © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

The energy price shock is finishing its fourth week and the risks of material macro damage are rising. Until then the baseline of Brent oil prices that hold at current levels through midyear and then moderate by year-end makes for a lot of debate (both "should" and "will") about central bank reactions. 

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 27 March 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.  © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Strong momentum in 1Q leads to upward revisions but the ongoing Middle East conflict poses a larger downside to growth this year. Despite the growth hit, the boost to inflation and concern of second-round pass-through into core is complicating central bank reactions.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on March 20, 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.