Last week, as a frothy stock market continued to zigzag across a high plateau, two events occurred with significant implications for the macroeconomic outlook. First, the President signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Iran, potentially bringing the Iran war to a close. Second, Kevin Warsh presided over his first meeting as Fed Chairman, resulting in a slightly more hawkish tilt to monetary policy in the short run and the promise of significant reform in the long run.

Last Wednesday’s CPI report, while not a surprise, still showed a year-over-year inflation rate of 4.2% - higher than in any month since April, 2023. For investors, this raises a number of questions. First, is this the peak for U.S. inflation and, if it is, how fast will inflation fall from here? Second, are we looking at the right inflation rate, anyway, given differences between CPI and PCE deflators, headline and core measures and the new Fed Chairman’s preference for trimmed mean and median readings?

Two weeks ago, Sari and I took a vacation - an extended road trip down the East Coast as far as Charleston and then inland back to New York through the Appalachians. On a long driving stretch on the way back, we stopped at a Jersey Mike’s just off the highway for some much needed nourishment. As we were waiting to pay, a talkative man, in the height of good humor, was ordering behind us. I don’t know if he knew anyone working at the store, but he acted as if he did. He said he’d just got a job after five months searching and he was going to celebrate - by buying two big subs - one for that evening and another to put in the fridge for the next night.

The Financial Accounts of the United States is a quarterly Federal Reserve publication containing a great many large numbers but very little commentary, presumably because the authors feel the numbers speak for themselves. And the numbers do speak rather loudly.

In 19th century English novels, so-called “quarter days” often provided a chronological backdrop to the plot. A relic of medieval times, the quarter days were Lady Day (March 25th), Midsummer Day (June 24th), Michaelmas (September 29th) and Christmas Day (December 25th). These were the dates upon which rents were paid, leases expired and employment contracts took effect. Quarter days were often when the landlords of Austen expected their income, the impoverished families of Dickens had to cough up their rents and the farmworkers of Hardy would move on to their next place of employment. In short, they were days of accounting and reckoning.

On Tuesday, the Senate Banking Committee will hold hearings to consider the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed chair. His confirmation will likely be delayed until the Justice Department’s investigation into Jerome Powell is fully resolved. Despite this, Mr. Warsh’s answers to the committee’s questions could shed light on the future direction of monetary policy.

Evening newspapers, like vinyl records and rotary phones, are fading relics, all victims of the smartphones into which humanity is gradually burying its consciousness. But once, they were a vibrant part of daily life.

Growing up in Dublin in the 1970s and 1980s, there were two evening papers, the Evening Herald and the Evening Press. Sold at every street corner, they would distract commuters from the damp and discomfort of the tight-quartered, smoke-filled upstairs of double-decker buses.

A year ago this week, the President announced what he described as “reciprocal tariffs” on goods imported from all major U.S. trading partners. These tariffs, which were much broader and higher than expected, led to an immediate and sharp decline in stock prices.

In a speech last April, Fed Chair Nominee, Kevin Warsh, lamented the mission creep of the Federal Reserve as well as the Fed’s expanded balance sheet. Many academics agree with Warsh – the Fed has often tried to address problems that are not within its remit and with tools not suited to their purpose. Some of these endeavors have inflated the balance sheet which, rather like a Swiss army knife, is a tool used for many tasks, none of which it does particularly well.

One of the benefits of my marathon training is that, most weekends, I get to jog over the Newton and Wellesley hills with my running buddy, John, who happens to be a financial advisor. Over the course of three hours we solve the problems of the world, reviewing them with dour pessimism at the start of our run and assessing them with breezy optimism later on, as the running endorphins kick in.