Eye On The Market

Eye On The Market episodes:

• 04.24.2024

  Cicadian Rhythms

  Cicadian Rhythms: the fading prospects of a US disinflationary boom; Japan’s structural reform/M&A emergence; and Eye on the Market mailbag responses to questions on Tesla/Musk, GLPs, housing, China, Truth Social and Meta’s latest open source model View video here

  
• 04.02.2024

  The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

  The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: an investor lens on tech valuations, AI, energy and the US Presidential Election. View video here

  
• 03.05.2024

  Electravision

  This Eye on the Market is about the predominant vision for the future which involves the electrification of everything, powered by solar, wind, transmission and distributed energy storage. View video here

  
• 02.08.2024

  Five Easy Pieces

  Five Easy Pieces: on Magnificent 7 stocks, open source large language models, the No Labels movement, the Armageddonists and bottom-fishing in Chinese equities. View video here

  
• 01.23.2024

  Medical Complications

  This Eye on the Market is about all the things that can be true at the same time. The collapse of the political middle in Congress should not be an excuse for everyone else to abandon the ability to believe...

  
• 01.17.2024

  Outlook 2024 - Episode 3: Deep Dive—Top Ten Surprises

  A top ten list on what might happen… not what will happen, in honor of strategist Byron Wien View video here

  
• 01.10.2024

  Outlook 2024 - Episode 2: Deep Dive—The Fats Dominoes

  The impact of weight loss drugs on equity markets. View video here

  
• 01.01.2024

  Eye on the Market Outlook 2024: Pillow Talk - Episode 1: Outlook Overview

  Falling US inflation and possible Fed easing are increasing talk of a soft landing rather than a hard landing and bear market. Our 2024 Outlook takes a closer look at equities, fixed income, China, Japan, antitrust, weight loss drugs and...

  
• 12.05.2023

  It’s Mostly a Paper Moon: Alternative Investments Review

  A review on industry returns in private equity, venture capital, hedge funds, commercial real estate, infrastructure and private credit View video here

  
• 11.14.2023

  Not That 70’s Show

  Six questions and answers on the intersection between geopolitics, US politics and financial markets View transcript View video here

  
• 10.16.2023

  New York, Just Like I Pictured It

  Comments on NYC compared to 21 other US cities with respect to urban recovery, commercial real estate, mass transit, crime, outmigration, work-from-home trends, tax rates, economic pulse, fiscal health, unfunded pensions, energy prices, industry diversification and competitiveness. View transcript View video here View...

  
• 09.26.2023

  What was I made for: Large Language Models in the Real World

  I asked Chat GPT-4 questions on economics, markets, energy and politics that my analysts and I worked on over the last two years. This piece reviews the results, along with the latest achievements and stumbles of generative AI models in...

  
• 08.02.2023

  The Rasputin Effect

  Global resilience to higher rates View transcript View video and charts here

  
• 07.18.2023

  Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride

  The impact of underperforming 2020 and 2021 US IPOs View transcript with chart references

  
• 06.14.2023

  Letters to the Editor

  Comments on mega-cap stocks and artificial intelligence. Then, it’s time for some of my unsolicited letters to Barron’s, MSNBC, “No Labels”, FHFA and more.

  
• 05.23.2023

  Too Long at the Fair

  Time to retire the US/Emerging Markets barbell for a while View transcript with chart references

  
• 04.25.2023

  The Places We Could Go

  Before getting into the US$ discussion, three quick things. First, despite strong US data in Q1 and Q2, the US still appears headed for a slowdown later this year. As shown below, many longer-horizon leading indicators point in that direction....

  
• 04.10.2023

  Frankenstein’s Monster

  Frankenstein’s Monster: banking system deposits and the unintended fallout from the Fed’s monetary experiment; commercial real estate, regional banks and the COVID occupancy shock; the wipeout of Credit Suisse contingent capital securities; a market and economic update; and an update...

  
• 03.28.2023

  Growing Pains: The Renewable Transition in Adolescence

  Renewables are growing but don’t always behave the way you want them to.  This year’s topics include the impact of rising clean energy investment and new energy bills, how grid decarbonization is outpacing electrification, the long-term oil demand outlook, the...

  
• 02.21.2023

  Winter Heating

  The large language model battles begin: a look at the future of web search, conventional wisdom machines, hallucinating bears in space, some early application successes and how far they still are from humans. View transcript with chart references

  
• 01.24.2023

  American Gothic

  The Federal debt and how the Visigoths may try to break the system if no one fixes it View transcript with the chart references

  
• 01.02.2023

  The End of the Affair

  The affair with the market catalysts of the last decade is over now, and a new era of investing begins View transcript with chart references

  
• 12.01.2022

  Holiday Eye on the Market: Non-Fungible Trainwreck

  Holiday Eye on the Market: the YUCs, the MUCs, FTX, the Gensler Rule and the Summers Rule

  
• 11.02.2022

  A CH₄, HR4346 and mRNA-1273 Thanksgiving

  In the October Eye on the Market I wrote about how in 6 of 7 post-war recessions, equity markets preceded the decline in profits, employment and GDP by several months at least. I also mentioned that the best indicator to...

  
• 10.19.2022

  Reruns

  Reruns: how equity declines precede the fall in earnings, growth and employment during recessions; new US semiconductor export policies on China and the clash of empires; and other press article extolling the renewable energy virtues of a country with little...

  
• 09.26.2022

  Arrested Development

  Arrested Development: the pressure on profit margins, the tightest labor markets in decades and whether “second chance” policies for those with criminal arrest records can expand the labor force

  
• 09.06.2022

  On CPI, S&P, GHG and the IRS

  Three topics in this month’s Eye on the Market. First, an update on the Fed, inflation and corporate profits since we believe the June equity market lows may be retested in the fall. Second, a detailed look at what would...

  
• 06.27.2022

  Independence Days

  Topics: A revised map of the United States; investing in equities before a recession; Russia’s natural gas squeeze on Europe leads to another rescue program for Italy; the high cost of pariah status for the oil refining industry

  
• 06.15.2022

  The Elephants in the Room: Part Four, Whydrogen

  Hydrogen use cases may be much narrower than advertised, and the timeline is a very long one

  
• 05.26.2022

  The Elephants in the Room: Part Three, Electrification of home heating

  Fossil fuel bans, heat pumps and electrification of winter heating: What will happen to transmission grids at times of peak loads if no backup heating systems are in place? And what about the pace of change if bans on fossil...

  
• 05.17.2022

  Bear Market Barometers

  The slowdown induced by central bank tightening is just starting. Be patient when adding risk to portfolios. Valuations have declined materially but the price paid for high earnings growth is still elevated.

  
• 05.11.2022

  The Elephants in the Room: Part Two, Transmission and electric vehicles

  We continue with two topics on electrification, which is the foundation of many deep decarbonization plans: electric vehicle adoption by gasoline super-users and the transmission quagmire

  
• 05.11.2022

  The Elephants in the Room

  We start with a summary of the energy landscape, including the energy crisis in Europe, the recovery in the oil & gas sector and a warning label on industrial electrification and carbon sequestration

  
• 03.22.2022

  Surveying the Damage

  Surveying the Damage: Russia’s recurring war on Ukraine, equity market declines and the opportunity for bottom-fishing investors, the energy price surge/recession outlook in Europe, the impact of rising metals prices on EV battery costs, the COVID situation in Hong Kong...

  
• 03.07.2022

  China and the Russian invasion of Ukraine

  The bulk of this note is on China, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the surge in natural gas, oil, coal, electricity, wheat, copper, palladium and other prices which will probably drag Europe into recession, and impose a heavy growth drag...

  
• 03.04.2022

  Webcast replay: Russia, Ukraine and implications for investors

  Listen to Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy, Monica Dicenso, Head of Global Investment Opportunities Group, and Kathryn Pasqualone, Client Advisor, North America Institutional, discuss the current situation in Russia and Ukraine, and the implications for investors.

  
• 02.15.2022

  Risk unwind, supply chains and the Ukraine

  Topics: Tracking the market risk unwind; Supply chain update; Ukraine; Invasion of the COVID Body Snatchers

  
• 12.06.2021

  Middle Ages

  On equity markets, the Lombards, SPAC investors, Bone-setters, George Washington, COVID bots and Omicron.

  
• 11.15.2021

  The Thing

  Some things just cannot be talked about. So in this year’s Thanksgiving piece, I wrote about something else.

  
• 10.20.2021

  Help Wanted

  “Help Wanted”. We expect semiconductor, vehicle and other goods bottlenecks to resolve themselves in the months ahead, and interpret declining business surveys as the result of a temporary supply shock and not a sign of inadequate demand. As a result,...

  
• 09.27.2021

  Dude, Where’s My Stuff

  The global supply chain mess will require increased global vaccination and acquired immunity, semiconductor capacity expansion and the end of extraordinary housing/labor supports to resolve. We expect all three to occur over the next few months, leading to a global...

  
• 08.19.2021

  Spaccine hesitancy

  Topics: if people avoided SPACs instead of avoiding COVID vaccines, the US would be both wealthier and closer to herd immunity.  An update on our SPAC analysis from last February, and a look at the strange mathematical paradox that ends...

  
• 07.26.2021

  Red Med Redemption

  Politics, vaccination resistance and the Delta variant; US economic recovery update; big tech reliance on acquisitions to fuel growth

  
• 07.13.2021

  Thy Brother’s Keeper

  COVID and the Delta variant; the Fed as firefighter and arsonist; US-China economic divorce picks up steam; and the pig-snake inflation timetable (how long until we know if there’s a permanent wage/price rise).

  
• 06.28.2021

  Food Fight: 2021 Private Equity Update

  Every two years, we take a close look at the performance of the private equity industry given its rising share of institutional and individual portfolios.  Our findings this year: the private equity industry is still outperforming public equity, but this...

  
• 05.05.2021

  Future Shock

  Absent decarbonization shock treatment, humans will be wedded to petroleum and other fossil fuels for longer than they would like. Wind and solar power reach new heights every year but still represent just 5% of global primary energy consumption. In...

  
• 04.14.2021

  Absolute Value

  Biden goes for broke on growth, driving coincident and leading indicators to all-time highs; the Value recovery and where it goes from here; COVID herd immunity, the path to normalcy and rising concerns about thrombosis risks from vector vaccines.

  
• 03.15.2021

  Interest rate pretzels and the Zoom shock on real estate

  If long-term US interest rates stay below 2%, that’s a great sign for equity investors. But if they don’t… it’s amazing to see the pretzels that people contort into to convince themselves that rising rates are not a problem for...

  
• 02.18.2021

  Very short stories

  Short stories on the global recovery, plummeting COVID infections, Larry Summers & the bond market, SPAC sponsors, renewable energy, the Texas power outage and the battle for the Republican Party.

  
• 02.08.2021

  Hydraulic Spacking

  In this month’s note, we look first at the SPAC capital raising boom. Our main focus: returns to date for SPAC sponsors and investors, and the large wealth transfers taking place among SPAC participants. Second topic: Biden’s early stage energy...