Notes on the Week Ahead

Evening newspapers, like vinyl records and rotary phones, are fading relics, all victims of the smartphones into which humanity is gradually burying its consciousness. But once, they were a vibrant part of daily life.

Growing up in Dublin in the 1970s and 1980s, there were two evening papers, the Evening Herald and the Evening Press. Sold at every street corner, they would distract commuters from the damp and discomfort of the tight-quartered, smoke-filled upstairs of double-decker buses.

A year ago this week, the President announced what he described as “reciprocal tariffs” on goods imported from all major U.S. trading partners. These tariffs, which were much broader and higher than expected, led to an immediate and sharp decline in stock prices.

In a speech last April, Fed Chair Nominee, Kevin Warsh, lamented the mission creep of the Federal Reserve as well as the Fed’s expanded balance sheet. Many academics agree with Warsh – the Fed has often tried to address problems that are not within its remit and with tools not suited to their purpose. Some of these endeavors have inflated the balance sheet which, rather like a Swiss army knife, is a tool used for many tasks, none of which it does particularly well.

One of the benefits of my marathon training is that, most weekends, I get to jog over the Newton and Wellesley hills with my running buddy, John, who happens to be a financial advisor. Over the course of three hours we solve the problems of the world, reviewing them with dour pessimism at the start of our run and assessing them with breezy optimism later on, as the running endorphins kick in.

Three weeks ago, I wrote an article entitled Detangling Solution for the Economic Outlook in which I outlined a baseline forecast for 2026 and into 2027, amidst many distortions and entanglements in economic data and trends.

So much has happened since then, including a raft of new economic numbers, the Supreme Court’s decision on IEEPA tariffs, and, most seriously, the start of an all-out war in the Middle East, that it makes sense to go through the exercise again, or, as the marketers of hair products might say, “rinse and repeat”.

On Friday, the Supreme Court released a long-awaited decision, ruling that the President’s imposition of tariffs, using the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, otherwise known as IEEPA, was illegal. The President held a press conference that afternoon and issued a proclamation announcing a general 10% tariff on imported goods, using a different statute and promised to invoke a third set of statutes to replace the overturned tariffs on a more permanent basis. On Saturday, he announced that the 10% tariff rate was being raised to 15%.

Between taking a shower when I get up in the morning and another when I get home from running, I am a significant consumer of detangling solution. In my youth, an unruly shock of hair required liberal doses of the substance just to bring some order to my muppet-like locks. Today, sadly, the forest has thinned out, making detangling solution somewhat less necessary. However, with less to do up top, it would be nice if it could gently seep into my scalp, detangling some of the confusion beneath.

Last week saw dramatic moves in financial markets. Gold and silver, which rose very sharply last year and in January, suddenly lurched down before stabilizing. Bitcoin took a nosedive before achieving a significant, although partial, recovery on Friday. Mega-cap tech stocks posted huge earnings gains but announced even more lofty capital spending plans, contributing to a general selloff in the sector. And, at the end of the week, stocks saw a resounding rally, pushing the venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average over 50,000 for the first time ever.

On Friday, the President announced Kevin Warsh as his pick for Fed Chair. Warsh has a track record of hawkishness from his previous stint as Fed governor. He has also annunciated a broad philosophy that the Fed has moved too far from its original mandate by promoting ESG objectives and in enabling excessive federal spending through quantitative easing. That being said, he has argued more recently that the Fed should cut interest rates more aggressively.

Amidst a torrent of unsettling international and domestic events, the week ahead could be very consequential for the Federal Reserve. The FOMC will hold its first meeting of the year on Tuesday and Wednesday.  While they will likely leave interest rates on hold, any dissents on that decision and their commentary on the economic outlook will provide clues to the direction of short-term interest rates in 2026 and beyond. In addition, this week the President is expected to announce his nominee for Fed Chair, the person who, presuming they are confirmed by the Senate, will lead the Fed over at least the next four years.