FICC Focus

With the Federal Reserve beginning a new tightening cycle and markets pricing additional rate increases, investors are reassessing where the Treasury yield curve may be headed next. Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest-rate strategist, discusses this and more in a solo Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Jersey explains why Chairman Kevin Warsh’s latest press conference offered a clearer view of the Fed’s reaction function, with resilient economic growth allowing policymakers to focus more directly on above-target inflation. Jersey outlines why BI expects another 50 bps of tightening, though likely at a slower pace than markets currently price, and examines how previous Fed cycles suggest further curve flattening could follow the first hike. Jersey also discusses why two- to five-year Treasuries may offer attractive carry and downside protection as the curve flattens, how inflation expectations will influence the Fed’s next moves and why solid nominal growth continues to support relatively high long-term Treasury yields.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

“We want to encourage risk-taking, but we want to encourage the right type of risk-taking, which is informed risk-taking,” says Colin Purdie, global CIO of public markets for Manulife Investment Management. In this episode of Credit Crunch, Purdie joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert to discuss portfolio construction and decentralized decision-making within a global platform. The two explore the material growth in equity and credit issuance to fund data centers, where the benefits of AI may accrue, why physical climate risk could be mispriced and where to find relative value. Purdie also explains why the 2022 gilt crisis was an important lesson, offers thoughts on whether de-dollarization is done or delayed, and speaks to the source of demand for corporate new issuance and the potential effect of a less-transparent Federal Reserve.

The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

In this episode of the FX Moment podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman talks to BI’s Chief Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey for a flavor on what to expect from the Fed at the Sept. 16 FOMC Meeting. The hotter-than-expected August CPI data is boosting the case for September policy action, though that isn’t a done deal and there’s still uncertainty as to what to expect on policy messaging and on whether any September action would mark the beginning of a tightening cycle or whether it’s more about removing some of 2025’s policy easing. The implications for the bond market and the dollar are different depending on the scenario that unfolds. Ira and Audrey also discuss the implications that a no-change policy outcome would have on the bond market and the dollar, via the cyclical and structural channels.

The angst, consternation and hand-wringing over debt levels may be a contrarian indicator that rate markets are oversold, says Brendan Murphy, North American head of fixed income at Insight Investment Management. Murphy joins Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest rate strategist Ira Jersey on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast to discuss the outlook for fixed income. Murphy attributes elevated yields to a stronger macro backdrop, persistent inflation uncertainty, the Fed leadership shift to Chair Kevin Warsh and fiscal concerns amplified by heavy AI-driven corporate issuance. He outlines Insight Investment’s base case that the Fed holds at its upcoming meeting, favors the five-year part of the curve and prefers non-agency securitized credit and agency mortgages over investment grade on valuation grounds. The episode closes with Murphy’s contrarian view that widespread market pessimism may signal a fixed-income buying opportunity, with high-quality portfolios now yielding around 6%, competitive with long-run equity return expectations. 

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. 

Cross-asset volatility has declined over summer even though the path of resistance for yields has been higher. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI’s Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu gives an update on macro dynamics, bond market volatility, yen, S&P 500 dispersion strategies and the fat tails on gas prices.

Emerging market equities have outperformed the S&P 500 by over 14% over the past year, as investors take advantage of attractive valuations, falling currency volatility and a more resilient macroeconomic backdrop. Malcolm Dorson, Senior EM Portfolio Manager and Head of the Active Investment Team at Global X, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief EM fixed income strategist, to assess the durability of thematic and idiosyncratic investment opportunities across the EM equity universe. Dorson and Sassower assess relative performance, foreign positioning and fund flows as institutional investors exhibit greater interest in moving down the EM capital structure.

With the latest energy shock pushing UK inflation higher while economic growth remains subdued, investors are questioning whether markets have priced too much Bank of England tightening. Jack Meaning, UK chief economist at Barclays, joins Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest rate strategist Ira Jersey to discuss that and more on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Meaning explains why Barclays expects inflation to climb above 3% in the second half of 2026 but sees little evidence of the wage or second-round effects that would make the increase durable. The two discuss why keeping Bank Rate at 3.75% already represents a meaningful tightening relative to earlier market expectations and how restrictive financing conditions and labor-market slack are weighing on growth. They also explore whether improving investment intentions — including spending tied to artificial intelligence — can provide support. The conversation examines Brexit’s lingering impact, the UK’s difficult fiscal choices and why Barclays expects the Bank of England to remain on hold this year before inflation moves back toward target in 2027. The episode concludes with a look at the central bank’s upcoming quantitative-tightening decision and the debate over continuing active gilt sales.

Emerging market fund flows are accelerating as credit fundamentals continue to improve amid historically loose financial conditions, wide real yields and deteriorating US dollar demand. Genna Lozovsky, managing principal and chief investment officer of Sandglass Capital Management, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief EM fixed income strategist, to share his outlook for special situations and distressed EM credit amid a historically tight spread environment. Lozovsky and Sassower focus on opportunities in off-the-run EM growth, distressed corporates and speculative-grade sovereign debt.

With US growth holding up and inflation still running above target, investors are weighing whether the Federal Reserve needs to tighten policy further or can afford to stay on hold. Drew Matus, chief market strategist at MetLife Investment Management, joins Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest-rate strategist Ira Jersey to discuss this and more on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Matus argues that rate hikes would do little to address the forces currently supporting inflation while risking unnecessary damage to the broader economy, and explains why he expects the Fed to remain on hold. The two also discuss how the AI investment boom and household wealth effects are supporting US growth, why Matus sees AI as a potential source of job creation and productivity gains, and where those benefits could create opportunities across emerging markets and Japan. They also examine global fixed-income valuations, geopolitical and oil-market risks and why clearer rules governing the relationship between the Treasury and Fed — including the composition and size of the central bank’s balance sheet — could ultimately reduce uncertainty for markets.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Global credit markets have stayed relatively calm through war and peace, despite swings in the rates markets, making strategic insights essential. In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence’s global head of credit strategy, hosts our global team to discuss key research, data and views from around the world. Tim Tan and Jason Lee in Asia, Reto Bachmann from structured credit, Heema Patel in Europe and Alice Zhou in the US share their outlooks and the key themes shaping their regions. Access their research on the Bloomberg Terminal at BI STRTA, BI STRTE and BI STRTN.