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In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss how markets are becoming quickly complacent with realized and implied volatility collapsing across asset classes.

The only surprises are still coming from bond markets, while something interesting is brewing in China which could have a meaningful impact for macro going forward.

Plus, they discuss the odds of a Trump win and its implications.

Useful link: https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024

https://www.semafor.com/article/05/21/2024/imprisoned-ex-trump-aide-peter-navarro-predicts-ouster-of-fed-chair-jay-powell

(Links mentioned in the podcast are in the show notes below: check them out!)

Alf and Brent discuss the soft patch the US seems to be going through and the CPI number released this week. If markets are going to continue with this low-vol grind higher, how do you trade macro now? Also, China seems to be cooking something big this time.

- Contact me (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg to check out the Crowded Trades Indicator

- Link to Bill Bishop piece on China: 

https://sinocism.com/p/putin-in-china-reactions-to-us-tariffs

- Link to the interview with Paul Tudor Jones: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/alfonso-peccatiello-72156a6a_paul-tudor-jones-market-wizards-activity-7196033190011060226-jDKp?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

The Bank of England pre-announced a rate cut in June, the Swedish Riksbank cut interest rates, and there are a few early signs of weakness emerging in the US as well.

Is the market ready for a regime switch?

Alf and Brent also discuss how they approach trading into volatile events, breaking long-term correlation, and the structural USD strength.

Links mentioned in the show:

https://www.spectramarkets.com/amfx/cad-v-wti-divortium/

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#Tab3

Descrizione: Nominal growth is showing some early signs of fatigue, while economists' expectations remain elevated and market pricing still quite hawkish. Alf and Brent discuss potential opportunities arising from this setup, and spend time arguing whether Powell just announced a new Fed Put this week. 

Link to Brent's favorite podcast this week: https://pod.link/1594407589/episode/48072fb61a2a4cd1bf4fbbf9dff7e555

US Q1 Real GDP printed below expectations but still at a respectable 1.6%, and core inflation was hotter than analysts forecast: more fuel on the fire of the reflation theme? Alf and Brent present a contrarian macro thesis instead, and also discuss the odds of a Chinese devaluation and more. Finally, they talk about the pros/cons of using stop losses in tactical macro trading. Enjoy the show!

The Fed is all of a sudden opening up to the possibility of hikes: what now? But most importantly: have you ever thought about the possibility of Fed hikes being stimulative? And finally: do you have any idea why every Central Bank in the world is targeting exactly 2% for inflation?

Alf and Brent discuss this and much more in today's episode - have fun!

And also take a look at Brent's piece on safe havens through different macroeconomic environments: https://www.spectramarkets.com/amfx/acute-shortage-of-safe-assets/

This week Alf and Brent discuss how markets seem to be on the lookout for a release valve for the combination of a Fed talking about cuts while nominal growth doesn't call for them: commodiites, bond markets, and the US Dollar seem to be all brewing under the surface. But what will actually break markets?

Markets are in reflation mode with commodities getting bid all over the place: not only gold and crude oil, but also silver, copper, zinc, you name it. Also, the US Dollar is showing signs of topping and it all starts to closely remind one of the most volatile macro periods ever. So: what's the next big trade? Find out in the show! 

Alf welcomes back Brent to the show, and the co-host duo discusses macro data, Fed's Waller speech, Japan and China. But most importantly they share thoughts and observations about the current low volatility market regime, how to approach it trying to avoid the most common macro traders' mistakes, and how to think of risk/reward when looking at insurance trades.

Here are some non-trading and investing reads that are useful for traders and investors.

https://www.philgalfond.com/articles/variance-beyond-the-surface

The Inner Game of Tennis by Timothy Gallwey

My System by Aron Nimovich

This week Alf welcomes Dario Perkins to the show. Dario discusses how we got here with much more benign inflationary dynamics without a big damage to labor markets - hint: Central Bankers were lucky more than skilled. Dario and Alf discuss the path ahead for economies and monetary policy, and a trade idea. Alf opens and closes the show with his thoughts on the big Central Bank events of the week. Go and follow Dario on Twitter (@darioperkins). And share the word about TMTF with a friend!