US Q1 Real GDP printed below expectations but still at a respectable 1.6%, and core inflation was hotter than analysts forecast: more fuel on the fire of the reflation theme? Alf and Brent present a contrarian macro thesis instead, and also discuss the odds of a Chinese devaluation and more. Finally, they talk about the pros/cons of using stop losses in tactical macro trading. Enjoy the show!

The Fed is all of a sudden opening up to the possibility of hikes: what now? But most importantly: have you ever thought about the possibility of Fed hikes being stimulative? And finally: do you have any idea why every Central Bank in the world is targeting exactly 2% for inflation?

Alf and Brent discuss this and much more in today's episode - have fun!

And also take a look at Brent's piece on safe havens through different macroeconomic environments: https://www.spectramarkets.com/amfx/acute-shortage-of-safe-assets/

This week Alf and Brent discuss how markets seem to be on the lookout for a release valve for the combination of a Fed talking about cuts while nominal growth doesn't call for them: commodiites, bond markets, and the US Dollar seem to be all brewing under the surface. But what will actually break markets?

Markets are in reflation mode with commodities getting bid all over the place: not only gold and crude oil, but also silver, copper, zinc, you name it. Also, the US Dollar is showing signs of topping and it all starts to closely remind one of the most volatile macro periods ever. So: what's the next big trade? Find out in the show! 

Alf welcomes back Brent to the show, and the co-host duo discusses macro data, Fed's Waller speech, Japan and China. But most importantly they share thoughts and observations about the current low volatility market regime, how to approach it trying to avoid the most common macro traders' mistakes, and how to think of risk/reward when looking at insurance trades.

Here are some non-trading and investing reads that are useful for traders and investors.

https://www.philgalfond.com/articles/variance-beyond-the-surface

The Inner Game of Tennis by Timothy Gallwey

My System by Aron Nimovich

This week Alf welcomes Dario Perkins to the show. Dario discusses how we got here with much more benign inflationary dynamics without a big damage to labor markets - hint: Central Bankers were lucky more than skilled. Dario and Alf discuss the path ahead for economies and monetary policy, and a trade idea. Alf opens and closes the show with his thoughts on the big Central Bank events of the week. Go and follow Dario on Twitter (@darioperkins). And share the word about TMTF with a friend!

The bond market is waking up to the idea that inflation might be a bit stickier and the Fed's hands are tied. Alf and Brent discuss what this implies for global macro asset classes, and highlight a few trade ideas. 

Sign up for the free waiting list for Brent's upcoming Spectra School course: https://www.spectramarkets.com/school/

Alf and Brent discuss how animal spirits seem to be running loose in several asset classes. Signs are evident not only in stocks but also in gold, Bitcoin and option markets. They also focus on Japan and the potential tectonic shifts in the Bank of Japan monetary policy stance.

Alf and Brent discuss the outlook for the US economy, and how bond markets have adjusted their pricing to reflect the odds of a soft landing. Is there a trade maybe? They then move their focus to Canada, Europe, New Zealand, China: a tour around the world searching for macro opportunities. Two trade ideas and the most useful/stupidest thing they heard this week to top up the comeback episode of The Macro Trading Floor!

Link to the Kelly Criterion article: https://capitalgains.thediff.co/p/bankroll

The Macro Trading Floor is back! And there are quite some surprises...