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Asia's Developing Future
By Asian Development Bank InstituteEducation
Asia's Developing Future episodes
- So far, so good, for emerging Asia but financial, monetary challenges remainAsian emerging market economies adopted a range of measures after the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s to shelter themselves from economic and financial contagion. So far, those moves have succeeded. But with new challenges rising, some of the tools they turned to may need readjusting so that they don’t cause more problems than they cure.Hans Genberg, executive director of the Southeast Asian Central Banks Research and Training Centre, in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, suggests that, at the very least, more and better coordination is needed among various supervisory agencies. He also calls for an examination of whether central banks have taken on too much responsibility as their jobs have expanded.Writing in a new Asian Development Bank Institute publication, Global Shocks and the New Global and Regional Financial Architecture, Asian Perspectives, Genberg suggests that Asian central banks went with a palette of solutions to the problems exposed by the Asian financial crisis.Peter Morgan, co-chair of research at ADBI, is an editor of the book. He explains that emerging Asia’s response to the crisis helped it get through relatively unscathed during the 2008–2009 global downturn that followed about 10 years later.Read the transcripthttps://bit.ly/2nleZ9XRead the bookhttps://bit.ly/396ET7JRead the related blog posthttps://bit.ly/2Mv6cjPAbout the author and editorsHans Genberg is the executive director of the Southeast Asian Central Banks Research and Training Centre, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The book editors are Peter Morgan, co-head of research at ADBI; ADBI Dean Naoyuki Yoshino; and Pradumna B. Rana of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.Know more about ADBI’s workhttps://bit.ly/2KyV7JBhttps://bit.ly/2OSN1Ps6 min
- Economic models show China yuan shift, Malaysia–Singapore reactions, were best optionsThe People’s Republic of China’s gradual shift from a currency policy pegged to the US dollar to one that tracks the movements of a range of currencies was the correct choice given the challenges, and neighbors Malaysia and Singapore were best served by reacting in a similar way.That’s the conclusion of research presented in Global Shocks and the New Global and Regional Financial Architecture, Asian Perspectives, a new book by the Asian Development Bank Institute.The vulnerability of the currency regimes used in Asia came into focus after the Asian financial crisis of 1997–1998, when the many Asian countries that had pegged their currencies to the US dollar found they had opened themselves to significant economic and financial risks.Since the crisis, countries have either chosen to let their currencies trade more freely against the dollar—Indonesia, Thailand, and the Republic of Korea, for example—or shifted to other methods that still retain significant control over the value of their currencies. One of the most popular of these is the basket peg, where the local currency moves in a range against a basket of currencies, rather than being pegged directly to the moves of a single one.Read the transcripthttps://bit.ly/2vrdKcHRead the bookhttps://www.adb.org/publications/global-shocks-and-new-global-and-regional-financial-architecture-asian-perspectivesRead the related blog posthttps://bit.ly/2Mv6cjPAbout the authorsNaoyuki Yoshino the dean of the Asian Development Bank Institute.Tamon Asonuma is an economist in the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund.Peter Morgan is a co-head of research at ADBI.Know more about ADBI’s work on currency policyhttps://bit.ly/2LPB3r3https://bit.ly/2LQpGiI6 min
- Steel trade war threatens to bring back “dark ages” in world commerceA brewing trade war over steel is threatening to bring the world back to the economic “dark ages” when countries used trade curbs to retaliate politically against rival governments.The World Trade Organization and its members must find ways to ease tensions between rival countries and look for innovative ways to ensure global trade rules remain relevant and adaptive to the challenges of the present and the future.It may mean revisiting the WTO and the role it can play in trade governance.One of the reasons the WTO was formed was to make sure global trade is balanced and fair by isolating international trade from government intervention.Revisiting the WTO has become urgent in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s decision to slap tariffs on steel imports to protect the United States’ national interest, which is purportedly endangered by dependence on imported steel.The US acted before the WTO could consider its complaints of dumping, and the European Union and the People’s Republic of China are considering retaliatory tariffs.Read the transcripthttps://bit.ly/2v5Z5nZRead the bloghttps://www.asiapathways-adbi.org/2018/04/impact-of-retaliatory-trade-enforcement-actions-on-the-world-trade-organization-and-trade-governance/About the authorSoo-hyun Lee is a research associate of International Law and Dispute Settlement at the Asian Institute of Policy Studies in Seoul, Republic of Korea.Know more about ADBI’s work on tradehttps://bit.ly/2mZ5tsQhttps://bit.ly/2ytVl1X4 min
- Using diversified energy in agriculture can protect food securityEnergy price shocks—negative and positive—can have a powerful economic knock-on effect, especially on food prices where food is scarce. Even though great strides have been made since 1945 in feeding Asia’s huge populations, more than 500 million people still face food insecurity. Of the world’s undernourished, almost 65% live in Asia.Food insecurity stems from the link between energy prices and food prices, among other causes.A survey of Bangladesh, the People’s Republic of China, Indonesia, India, Japan, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Viet Nam from 2010 to 2016 proposed a model with eight variables affecting agricultural food prices—land prices, GDP, inflation rates, oil prices, biofuel prices, employment in agriculture, labor costs, and real interest rates.Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, one of the authors of ADBI’s research on this topic, sums up the survey’s findings.Read the transcripthttps://bit.ly/2LPmZuBRead the working paperhttps://www.adb.org/publications/volatility-linkages-between-energy-and-food-prices-asian-countriesAbout the authorsNaoyuki Yoshino is the dean of the Asian Development Bank Institute.Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary is an assistant professor of economics at Waseda University, Tokyo.Ehsan Rasoulinezhad is an assistant professor of economics at the University of Tehran, Iran.Know more about ADBI’s workhttps://bit.ly/2uLfdvahttps://bit.ly/2mFk3Wa5 min
- Trade opening transformed Indian industriesWhen India started opening its markets to international trade in the 1990s, what impact did it have on manufacturing and labor’s share of income? The answer lies in an analysis of plant-level data, which requires classifying industries as labor, human capital resource, or technology intensive. But first, what pushed India to open its doors?Read the transcripthttps://bit.ly/2Ofyop5Read the working paperhttps://www.adb.org/publications/adjustment-trade-opening-labor-share-india-manufacturing-industryAbout the authorsPrachi Gupta was a research associate at the Asian Development Bank Institute at the time the work was published.Matthias Helble a senior economist and co-head of research at ADBI.Know more about ADBI’s workhttps://bit.ly/2JUjwsChttps://bit.ly/2LF86y86 min
- Global and Asian financial oversight needs updating before the next crisis hitsRecent financial crises have highlighted the need to update the global institutions for financial and economic oversight that were founded more than 70 years ago, and their Asian counterparts that have been developing over the last 20 years.The evolution of financial markets and monetary policy makes it increasingly obvious that the coordination between organizations as well as the organizations themselves need to be better suited to modern reality. Peter Morgan, co-chair of research at the Asian Development Bank Institute, is one of the editors of a recent ADBI book, Global Shocks and the New Global and Regional Financial Architecture, Asian Perspectives, and an author of two of its chapters. The book investigates the issues and suggests possible remedies.Read the transcripthttps://bit.ly/2L3tLAyRead the bookhttps://www.adb.org/publications/global-shocks-and-new-global-and-regional-financial-architecture-asian-perspectivesRead the related blog posthttps://bit.ly/2Mv6cjPAbout the authorsPeter Morgan is co-chair of research at the Asian Development Bank Institute.Pradumna B. Rana is associate professor at the Centre for Multilateralism Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.Know more about ADBI’s workhttps://bit.ly/2uqt2iwhttps://bit.ly/2zLY35j6 min
- Crisis to opportunity—Asia and the Pacific are more integrated since 2008Asia and the Pacific have deepened economic integration through trade and foreign direct investment since the early 1990s. But financial market integration within the region has not progressed as quickly.ADBI research examining cross-border portfolio assets and liabilities in Asia and the Pacific from 2001 to 2017 shows that rapid increases in portfolio foreign assets and liabilities have taken place, particularly after the global financial crisis of 2008–2009. The crisis and the subsequent unconventional monetary easing adopted by the United States, Europe, and Japan have affected the movement of cross-border portfolio capital flows in Asia and the Pacific. When the crisis started, portfolio investment flowed out of the region. Later on during the crisis, when advanced economies eased monetary policies, and after the crisis, a new wave of cross-border portfolio investment from the United States and Europe flowed into the region in search of higher yields.ADBI researcher Eric Alexander Sugandi collaborated with ADBI visiting scholar Sayuri Shirai on the study. Sugandi summarizes their findings.Read the transcripthttps://bit.ly/2Lekmp5Read the working paperhttps://www.adb.org/publications/cross-border-portfolio-investment-financial-integration-asia-pacific-regionAbout the authorsSayuri Shirai is a visiting scholar at the Asian Development Bank Institute and former member of the Bank of Japan’s policy board.Economist Eric Alexander Sugandi, an ADBI consultant, formerly with Standard Chartered Bank, Citibank, and Bank Mandiri in Indonesia.Know more about ADBI’s workhttps://bit.ly/2utTCXRhttps://bit.ly/2NnknEe8 min
- Lessons from the Asian contagion helped the IMF tackle global financial crisisThe International Monetary Fund learned a thing or two from the 1997 Asian financial crisis, which helped it respond better to the 2008 global financial crisis.Thanks to IMF assistance, troubled countries were in a better position to weather the global crisis. The IMF provided financing to more than 30 countries that saw investors and capital flee financial markets.On average, IMF financing after the global crisis was larger than after the Asian crisis by more than 3 percentage points of gross domestic product. The IMF lent to countries beyond normal limits and increased the size of assistance in several instances when the initial amount wasn’t enough to curb capital outflow and stabilize exchange rates.The bigger financing packages and other innovations it introduced from 2008 to 2011 showed the IMF had learned its lesson from the Asian financial crisis, when inadequate financing contributed to the failure of IMF programs to stop capital outflows and currency free-falls.Read the transcripthttps://bit.ly/2uiB0JCRead the working paperhttps://www.adb.org/publications/assessing-effectiveness-imf-programs-following-global-financial-crisisAbout the authorsCarlos De Resende is a senior economist at the Institute for Capacity Development of the International Monetary Fund.Shinji Takagi is professor emeritus of economics at Osaka University and visiting research professor at the Asian Growth Research Institute, Fukuoka, Japan.Know more about ADBI’s work on the global financial crisishttps://bit.ly/2m8OSlLhttps://bit.ly/2J6XC5e8 min
- Australia, New Zealand have “green” policies but neither has reached its renewable-energy potentialStrong and consistent incentives and greater policy stability and coordination between levels of government are needed to engender green energy financing in New Zealand and Australia, according to the Asian Development Bank Institute.New Zealand, on the face of it, looks impressive with a generating mix of over 80% renewables, but this is largely the legacy of state intervention in decades past and masks high per-capita greenhouse gas emission due to intensive agriculture. Much more could be done to encourage distributed generation (such as houses with rooftop solar panels) and electrification of transport.Australia, however, still has a system dominated by coal, and although it has had more policies to promote renewables, their effect has been muted: renewables’ contribution stands at just 17%. The reasons: political instability and policy fragmentation between state and federal administrations. Commitment to energy transition is lacking across all parties and regulators.Read the transcripthttps://bit.ly/2L0ZNsBRead the working paperhttps://www.adb.org/publications/green-energy-finance-australia-and-new-zealandAbout the authorsIvan Diaz-Rainey is co-director at the Otago Energy Research Centre and associate professor of finance at the Department of Accountancy and Finance, University of Otago, New Zealand.Greg Sise is managing director at Energy Link in Dunedin, New Zealand.Know more about ADBI’s work on green energyhttps://bit.ly/2KNcWtzhttps://bit.ly/2u6kZXF8 min
- China may be about to repeat the financial mistakes of Japan in the 1980sChina’s financial system is developing rapidly, swelling the country’s bank assets to become the largest in the world, and there are worrying similarities with the global dominance of Japan’s banks in the late 1980s.Japan’s experience ended in tears with the bursting of a domestic and international financial and real asset bubble, heralding the economy’s descent into on-and-off recessions for the next 3 decades and stubborn deflation.Research done for the Asian Development Bank Institute found that, despite the rapid development of capital markets since the 1990s, China’s financial system continues to be dominated by bank lending.Read the transcripthttps://bit.ly/2z8u1spRead the working paperhttps://www.adb.org/publications/development-and-transformation-prc-financial-systemAbout the authorsDamian Tobin is a lecturer on Chinese business and management at the School of Finance and Management, SOAS University of London.Ulrich Volz is head of the Department of Economics at the same institution.Know more about ADBI’s work on the People’s Republic of China’s financial system:https://bit.ly/2KuB9o4https://bit.ly/2lUj0BD9 min
About Asia's Developing Future
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ADBI is the think tank of the Asian Development Bank. We conduct policy research and capacity building to drive sustainable development in Asia and the Pacific.
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