Some thoughts Microsoft’s decision to “pause” Quarry Yards development…
THIS PODCAST WAS UPDATED AND RERECORDED ON 02.10.23
* Previous presentations & podcasts
* Microsoft is an extraordinary company
* Financial powerhouse
* Trajectory-changer for ATL
* We don’t know what we don’t know
* My comments at 12:42 in the “Game-Changer” video below
* My “Tip of the Iceberg” podcast on ATLsherpa
* Especially important when it comes to making long-term investment decisions
* Economic headwinds
* 10,000 employees laid off at Microsoft (see quote and CNBC article below)
* Demand Pull Forward: Newton’s Third Law of Motion
* Spoke at length about this in Segment #2 of my Jan 14 podcast
* Hiring binge (esp by tech companies)
* Residential real estate
* Vivid (poignant) example of how “Wall Street” can impact “Main Street”
* My Dec. 30 Podcast: Segment #4: How do these Wall Street companies impact Main Street?
* Consider the impact on real estate (esp in the Bankhead area) after the Microsoft announcements (then and now)
* Caught “off guard”
* What we STILL don’t know…
* Pause or pivot?
* Revised level of commitment to ATL?
* Did Microsoft have a change of heart about ATL?
* If so, what precipitated that change in sentiment?
* How do local Microsoft employees feel about ATL?
* New to ATL
* Move from Avalon to Atlantic Station
What impact will this have on the real estate market?
* Greed-driven market (feeding frenzy)
* Deep end of the pool
* Residential — watch pricing, especially on newly built town houses
* Commercial — watch pace of current / future development activity
* Expect investors to freeze until more clarity is available
* This might provide a temporary floor on prices
* Smart money will probably start selling first (they were buying long before the MSFT announcement)
* Investment and development decisions are likely to be put on hold, awaiting more clarity
* The longer the radio silence, the more selling pressure
* Bottom line: Proceed with extreme caution!
* Which other projects (in other parts of ATL) might pause or cancel development plans? High likelihood that there will be others.
* How might this decision my Microsoft impact current / future plans by other companies (esp in the tech ecosystem) about moving to or expanding their presence in ATL?
“As we saw customers accelerate their digital spend during the pandemic, we’re now seeing them optimize their digital spend to do more with less,” he wrote. “We’re also seeing organizations in every industry and geography exercise caution as some parts of the world are in a recession and other parts are anticipating one.”
“I think for us as a global company, we’re not going to be immune from what’s happening in the macro,” he said in an interview with CNBC-TV18. “We will have to also get our own sort of operational focus on making sure our expenses are in line with our revenue growth.”
— Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella
Presentation & Google Earth Tour
Previous Podcasts
Timely & Relevant Articles
* Microsoft Stops Work On 90-Acre Atlanta Campus — BisNow (02.02.23)
* Mayor 'caught by surprise' as development paused on planned Microsoft Atlanta campus — 11Alive (02.03.23)
* Microsoft is laying off 10,000 employees — CNBC (01.18.23)
* A 12-year-old was killed and 5 teenagers injured in a shooting at shopping district near downtown Atlanta — CNN
* Microsoft's stalled plans already impacting Grove Park's housing market — ABC (02.09.23)
* Grove Park residents say it’s been weeks of uncertainty after Microsoft paused 90-acre project — 11Alive (02.20.23)
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit atlantarealestate.substack.com
