Four states are already on the map for significant snow this winter, and the pattern behind it is only getting stronger. Forecasters expect El Nino to build into a Super El Nino by the end of the year, the kind of setup that has historically buried the Sierra Nevada and the mountain Southwest in above-average snowfall. For drivers, the warning has arrived six months early, which is exactly the point.
What a Super El Nino Is
The El Nino weather pattern shows up when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific run warmer than average. In a Super El Nino, that warm anomaly exceeds two degrees Celsius. Researchers at the Columbia Climate School say the early warning signs are already in place, with subsurface heat across the equatorial Pacific beginning to rise toward the surface.
For U.S. winters that pattern historically tilts the odds a specific way: milder across the northern tier, wetter across the South. The strong El Nino winter of 1997-98 landed as one of the warmest and wettest on record.
The States Bracing for SnowMilder does not mean drier where it counts for drivers. The latest predictions single out four states for heavy rain and significant snow this winter: California in the Sierra Nevada, New York, Vermont and New Hampshire. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center meanwhile puts its highest confidence on above-normal precipitation across the Gulf States and parts of the Southeast to Mid-Atlantic, and gives the strengthening El Nino an 81 percent chance of reaching very strong intensity by the end of the year.
Translated to the road, that is a wet Sierra with deep winter snow over Donner Pass and the ski corridors, another loaded winter for the Northeast on the back of last season's cold one, and repeated rounds of rain and cold fronts across southern states where winter driving experience runs thin. These are the corridors where winter snow warning headlines will stack up once the season turns, and where an early forecast is worth acting on rather than reading.
There is a snow map too. NOAA's own analysis of snowfall in El Nino winters shows exactly where the pattern delivers, in inches: more snow than average across the Sierra Nevada and the mountains of the Southwest, from Utah and Colorado through New Mexico and Arizona, and less across the northern tier from the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes. For drivers, that is the map that matters.
Where Drivers Will Feel ItState / Region
What the Forecast Points To
Key Roads
California, Sierra Nevada
Blue on the El Nino snow map, wet lean in the CPC outlook
I-80 over Donner Pass, US-50 to Tahoe; chain controls the norm after storms
Utah and Colorado
More snow than average in the mountain Southwest
I-70 through the Rockies, the ski corridors; heaviest mountain interstate traffic in the country
New Mexico and Arizona
Blue zone across the high terrain
I-40 and I-25 grades, Flagstaff area; southern routes where winter gear is rare
New York, Vermont, New Hampshire
Named in the latest predictions for significant snow
I-87, I-89, I-91 corridors; second loaded winter in a row if it verifies
Gulf States and Southeast
Highest confidence of above normal precipitation
I-10, I-20 corridors; rain and cold fronts on roads with the least winter experience
The blue zones on the map and the busiest mountain highways in the country overlap almost exactly.
For the winter ahead there is no official snowfall forecast map, because no agency issues one at seasonal range. Until the first storms line up, the way to track where the snow potential sits is through overall precipitation, and NOAA's seasonal outlook for January through March shows the moisture leaning above normal in a broad arc across the southern tier. Where that surplus falls on high, cold ground, it falls white.
Why August Is the Month to Get ReadyWinter gear pricing runs opposite to demand. Tire shops and online retailers clear winter stock and run their quietest promotions in late summer, chains that sell out by the first November storm sit on shelves now, and installers who will be booked solid in October can take an appointment this week. Waiting for the first forecast snowflake means paying peak price for whatever is left, alongside everyone else who waited.
The car itself can wait until closer to the season, but not past it. Book the pre-winter checkup for October: battery, coolant, wipers and brakes, before the first freeze finds whichever one of them was on its way out.
Related: Super El Nino Map Reveals the One State Facing Even More Snow This Winter
What Belongs on the ListWinter tires first if your winter includes real snow: the compound stays flexible below roughly 45 degrees, which is what shortens stopping distances, and no all-season fully substitutes for that in the Sierra or northern New England. Chains second, sized to your tires and practiced once in the driveway, because Sierra chain controls do not care whether you have ever installed a set. Then the trunk kit: scraper, shovel, traction boards or sand, jumper cables or a jump pack, blanket, headlamp.
Related: Buying Winter tires? Here’s What You Need To Know Before Spending Big
Skills Are Gear TooThe cheapest upgrade is the one between the seats. Braking in a straight line before a curve, easing off the brakes on ice instead of stabbing them, and looking where you want the car to go are habits that can be learned in a parking lot and sharpened in a day. For drivers heading into a serious snow state, a winter driving course such as the dedicated snow-and-ice schools that run each season in Colorado and New Hampshire compresses years of trial and error into a weekend. One day of instruction in December costs less than one insurance deductible in January.
The map says the snow is coming to specific places this time. The calendar says the smart money gets ready for it now.
