Autonomy Markets

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Waymo’s co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana dropping a Mike Tyson-like right hook on Uber during a Bloomberg interview, exposing the reality of their pending divorce just as Uber reported earnings.

With Uber projecting 700 fully driverless vehicles by year-end, Grayson and Walt point out that over 71% of those are Waymo vehicles, making Uber’s climb to its 10,000-vehicle goal by 2028 substantially harder without their top partner.

While Uber attempts to shift its narrative toward delivery and highlights alternative partners such as Avride, Motional, and Zoox, Walt questions Uber’s timeline claiming autonomous cost-per-trip parity won’t happen until the end of the decade.

Grayson and Walt also analyze the sudden departure of Uber’s President and Chief Corporate Affairs Officer, Jill Hazelbaker, to OpenAI, and Tesla’s pivot to wind down Cybertruck production by the middle of next year to make room for more Cybercab capacity at Giga Texas.

Out in the field, Special Field Correspondent Spencer witnessed the birth of a brand-new Waymo depot being loaded with vehicles overnight, while becoming the first person to ride in Robotaxi in Fort Worth. In Orlando, Grayson confirmed Waymo has opened a second depot.

In autonomous trucking, Kodiak is at 99% readiness and on track for driver-out operations by year-end. Operating on three different OEM platforms (PACCAR International and Daimler Truck), Kodiak provided clear guidance, projecting five unsupervised trucks over the road by year-end, 200 by 2027, and 5,000 by 2029.

Walt highlights Kodiak’s extreme capital efficiency, noting their sub-$40 million cash burn compared to Aurora’s $200 million-plus burn for the same $3 million in quarterly revenue. Daimler Truck’s Torc is also aiming to launch driver-out trucks on public roads before the end of 2026.

On the Foreign Autonomy Desk, Baidu Apollo Go is now live in 22 cities doing 250,000 fully driverless rides a week in China, WeRide is preparing to launch in Denmark by the first half of 2027, Wayve and Uber are launching safety-driver testing in Japan by year-end, and Marti Technologies is getting ready to deploy in Turkey.

Episode Chapters 0:00 Waymo’s Right Hook to Uber5:11 Uber’s 700 Robotaxis14:50 Uber's Narrative Pivot to Delivery18:31 Uber's Jill Hazelbaker Departs for OpenAI20:31 Winding Down Cybertruck for Cybercab 23:20 Tesla Robotaxi & Waymo Market Expansions25:27 Lyft Earnings28:54 Kodiak Earnings36:14 Torc Aims for 2026 Driver-Out 37:26 Red Tape Desk: Texas Elections & the Threat of Local Robotaxi Control 39:43 Foreign Autonomy Desk45:21 Next Week
The Road to Autonomy provides institutional intelligence for the Autonomy Economy, powered by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠AUTNMY AI⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. We built the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠indices⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, set the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠benchmarks⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, and execute the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fieldwork⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to put decision-ready physical AI intelligence directly into your workflows with OMEGA.

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LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions.

The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries.

Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Waymo’s expanded partnership with Toyota, bringing factory-line integration to an autonomous bZ4X fleet in Japan by 2027.

With the Toyota and Hyundai manufacturing partnerships, Grayson says Waymo now has the manufacturing capacity and capital to dominate the robotaxi market globally, while Walt views the Toyota partnership as a volume ramp heading into 2030 that poses a serious threat to traditional rideshare.

Beyond robotaxis, Grayson and Walt analyze the partnership’s potential to introduce personally owned autonomous vehicles, which could accelerate the consumer trend toward one-car households. They also question Alphabet’s decision to omit the landmark Toyota announcement from its earnings report, even as Waymo added 250 square miles of territory across five cities in a single week.

In Orlando, Grayson spent five hours riding in Waymo's around its 120-square-mile territory, observing hundreds of Ojais at a massive depot near the airport. However, access restrictions at Orlando International Airport (MCO) and the Brightline station continue to choke off high-value transit corridors, underscored by a chaotic pickup attempt at a nearby Amazon facility.

In Houston, Tesla expanded Robotaxi's service area to 254-square-miles in the shape of a rocket ship. Over in autonomous trucking Aurora delayed its 200-truck milestone to February due to supply chain issues and reduced guidance, contrasting with Kodiak’s binding 75-truck order and leaner cash burn.

On the Foreign Autonomy Desk, XPENG received an SAE Level 4 demonstration permit in Guangzhou, Baidu Apollo Go received a SAE Level 4 special operating permit from Switzerland’s Federal Roads Office and Tesla's FSD Supervised was granted approval in Latvia.

Episode Chapters

0:00 Waymo and Toyota Partnership

06:36 Personally Owned Waymo Toyota Vehicles

09:18 Waymo's Volume Ramp to 2030 and the Impact on Rideshare

11:53 Waymo Expands Service Coverage by 250 Square Miles

13:15 Alphabet Earnings

16:08 Waymo's California Advantage

18:20 Orlando Field Report

31:28 Tesla Robotaxi in Orlando Field Report

33:17 Tesla Robotaxi Houston Expansion

35:47 Tesla Extends Robotaxi Service Hours

37:47 Aurora Delays Its Truck Milestone

41:28 Non Binding vs. Binding Autonomous Trucking Deals

46:13 Gatik Class 7 Truck Spotted in Plano

51:46 Rivian's Autonomy Plans

55:07 Foreign Autonomy Desk

1:00:08 Next Week

The Road to Autonomy provides institutional intelligence for the Autonomy Economy, powered by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠AUTNMY AI⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. We built the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠indices⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, set the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠benchmarks⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, and execute the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fieldwork⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to put decision-ready physical AI intelligence directly into your workflows with OMEGA.

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LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions.

The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries.

Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss field reports from Nashville, Dallas and Houston, takeaways from Tesla’s earnings call, Waymo’s accelerating fleet growth, a mysterious effort to stop robotaxis in Washington, D.C.

In Nashville, Grayson tours two Waymo depots near Nashville International Airport (BNA), including a hillside facility with an estimated 300-to-500-vehicle capacity that he dubs the most secure depot the show has visited. His 25-minute round of autonomy roulette on the Lyft app yielded zero matches, but the airport walk from the terminal door to the Waymo pickup zone clocked in at a seamless 2 minutes and 20 seconds.

In Dallas, which Grayson crowns the robotaxi capital of America, Waymo and Avride continue to scale as hundreds of unbadged Tesla Cybercabs sit in a staging lot near Dallas Love Field. In Houston, at the Uber/Nuro/Lucid depot, Grayson spotted just six robotaxis and zero unsupervised operations.

Turning to the Tesla earnings call, the hosts analyze FSD attach rates hitting 75%, renewed plans allowing owners to loan personal vehicles into the fleet, and the slip of the 24/7 service target to year-end. Grayson also connects the dots on why Tesla announced its four expansion cities (Las Vegas, Jacksonville, Phoenix, and San Antonio) in an order directly tracking physical depot construction.

Meanwhile, Walt reacts to a Semafor report projecting Waymo could scale to 20,000 vehicles by the end of next year, surpassing his own 15,000-vehicle estimate, as Waymo launches service at Harry Reid International Airport (LAS) and eyes Madrid (2027) and Toronto (2028).

Closing out on the Foreign Autonomy Desk, a VW MOIA van was spotted testing in Europe bearing Wayve decals instead of Mobileye, while France signaled renewed regulatory backing for autonomous fleets.

Episode Chapters

0:00 Nashville Field Report

08:38 Dallas Field Report

13:20 Avis Waymo Depot Buildout in Dallas

15:36 Houston Field Report

19:55 NHTSA Administrator Morrison Interview

21:08 Tesla Earnings

25:15 Waymo and Tesla Depot Infrastructure Buildout

27:17 Semafor Report: 20,000 Waymos by End of Next Year

28:43 Tesla Unsupervised Miles and 24/7 Service

31:17 Robotaxi Pricing vs. Rideshare

33:08 Tesla’s Four New Cities and the Depot Ground Truth

33:45 Waymo's Las Vegas Airport, Madrid and Toronto Expansions

35:08 Uber Nears 100 Fully Autonomous WeRide Vehicles in the UAE

37:19 Hertz, Avis and the Depot Market

39:46 GM’s $20 Billion Buyback

45:12 People First Transportation Alliance

51:06 London Driver Protests and TfL Robotaxi Caps

51:56 Santa Monica Leases Lots to Zoox

55:01 Foreign Autonomy Desk

56:08 Next Week

The Road to Autonomy provides institutional intelligence for the Autonomy Economy, powered by ⁠⁠⁠⁠AUTNMY AI⁠⁠⁠⁠. We built the ⁠⁠⁠⁠indices⁠⁠⁠⁠, set the ⁠⁠⁠⁠benchmarks⁠⁠⁠⁠, and execute the ⁠⁠⁠⁠fieldwork⁠⁠⁠⁠ to put decision-ready physical AI intelligence directly into your workflows with OMEGA.

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LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions.

The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries.

Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss new field reports from San Antonio and Dallas, management turnover at Uber, Tesla’s Cybercab progress in Austin and upcoming Dallas expansion, regulatory shifts across the US and Europe, and Wayve’s momentum in securing major OEM partnerships.

Grayson shares his experience taking a Waymo ride to the San Antonio International Airport (SAT), highlighting the seamless curbside drop-off that took under four minutes to reach security, while contrasting it with his SFO experience. With more field reports on the way, Grayson and Walt discuss key executive departures at Uber and what it might be signaling to the market.

In Austin, Tesla reportedly surpassed 300 Cybercabs as they prepare to expand Cybercab to Dallas. Across the pond in London, the politics around deploying robotaxis are heating up as Tesla rebrands FSD in Europe to Assisted Driving.

Episode Chapters

0:00 Waymo San Antonio Airport Experience

05:57 Motional’s Las Vegas Technical Center & Hyundai IONIQ 5 Upfitting

08:33 Private Ownership vs. Robotaxi Fleets

12:58 Human Factors and SAE Level 4

14:27 Autonomy Subscriptions

16:04 Dallas and Europe Field Reports

18:03 Uber's Management Turmoil

21:21 Uber's Lofty 15 City Robotaxi Goal

23:29 Growing Number of Cybercabs in Austin

28:01 Cybercab's Pending Dallas Launch

32:01 Waymo Opens Nashville Airport (BNA) Service

36:11 Zoox’s NHTSA Authorization for Hayward, California

38:17 Wayve's Potenial Volkswagen Deal

41:18 Applied Intuition

43:29 Red Tape and Regulations

56:48 Verne's Shift Towards Fleet Management

59:25 Next Week

The Road to Autonomy provides institutional intelligence for the Autonomy Economy, powered by ⁠⁠⁠AUTNMY AI⁠⁠⁠. We built the ⁠⁠⁠indices⁠⁠⁠, set the ⁠⁠⁠benchmarks⁠⁠⁠, and execute the ⁠⁠⁠fieldwork⁠⁠⁠ to put decision-ready physical AI intelligence directly into your workflows with OMEGA.

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LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions.

The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries.

Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Waymo’s first ever debt raise, the latest The Road to Autonomy Field Reports and the emergence of London as an autonomy capital.

Grayson views the debt raise as a clear signal of aggressive expansion, while Walt sees securing access to capital markets as a crucial strategic advantage as competition heats up. As Waymo continues to expand, the company launched fully autonomous operations in Detroit, with both Grayson and Walt agreeing that commercial service will commence before the end of the year.

In Las Vegas, Zoox continues to deploy the Zoox way. Special Field Correspondent David Moss headed to Las Vegas to try out Zoox’s new drop-off location at the T-Mobile Arena. The ride from Resorts World cost $42.26 and took 28 minutes, including extra loops around the Excalibur parking lot compared to $18.68 for a Waymo Ojai ride.

Across the Atlantic, London is emerging as a premier autonomy capital, with the guessing game heating up over whether Uber or its autonomous driving partners will secure the Automated Passenger Services (APS) permit. As Uber and its partners debate who gets the permit, Waymo is ramping up operations, preparing for what Grayson predicts will be a launch in London.

On the Foreign Autonomy Desk, XPeng formally named its new robotaxi service YoYo, while Stellantis selected Momenta to power autonomous capabilities for its Peugeot and Jeep brands in mainland China.

Episode Chapters 0:00 Atoms and Zoox Field Reports05:15 Autonomy Roulette on Uber in Las Vegas08:20 Waymo Raises $5 Billion in Debt12:20 Waymo Launches Unsupervised Testing in Detroit14:53 Tesla Robotaxi 24/7 Timeline in Austin18:33 Uber and Pony.ai Head to London25:12 How Long Until Wayve Goes Unsupervised?33:21 Minneapolis Mayor Vetoes Driver-In Mandate as California Mandates U.S. Remote Operations 37:30 Autonomous Trucking, Cleared for Take-Off 42:36 Foreign Autonomy Desk44:34 Next Week

The Road to Autonomy provides institutional intelligence for the Autonomy Economy, powered by ⁠⁠AUTNMY AI⁠⁠. We built the ⁠⁠indices⁠⁠, set the ⁠⁠benchmarks⁠⁠, and execute the ⁠⁠fieldwork⁠⁠ to put decision-ready physical AI intelligence directly into your workflows with OMEGA.

Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions.

The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries.

Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Grayson’s San Francisco Field Work where he rode in a Wayve vehicle on the freeway, compared Waymo’s Jaguar I-PACE and Ojai robotaxis back to back, attended DoorDash’s Dash Forward event, and found Travis Kalanick’s Atoms autonomous vehicle on the streets of San Francisco.

Grayson’s verdict on Wayve is clear. With zero interventions in dense San Francisco traffic, the ride felt very similar to Tesla’s Robotaxi. Grayson believes Wayve has the world’s best competitor to FSD today, is 12 to 16 months from an L2+ product in market, and roughly 36 months from going fully unsupervised, most likely first in London.

Waymo’s Ojai is still teething but dramatically better than three weeks ago, and while the driving felt identical to Texas, the San Francisco vehicles were spotless while Austin remains the dirtiest Waymo market Grayson has ridden in. After months of searching, Grayson found the Atoms autonomous vehicle near Golden Gate Park, located its depot through OMEGA, and will release an Atoms Field Report on Monday.

Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi rode unsupervised in a Pony.ai powered Verne robotaxi in Zagreb, while speculation builds that Mobileye might not have a future in robotaxis.

On the Foreign Autonomy Desk, Dubai opened the Dubai Autonomous Mobility Lab as it prepares for 25% fully autonomous operations, with WeRide already operating fully autonomously in the Emirate.

Episode Chapters 0:00 Waymo SFO Pickup Experience 04:38 Wayve San Francisco and Freeway Ride08:58 Wayve Timeline to Unsupervised 10:13 233,000 Mile Waymo I-PACE13:23 Waymo's Avomo Problem16:23 Atoms Autonomous Vehicle20:08 Mysterious BMW Testing in San Francisco and Mountain View22:08 DoorDash Dash Forward Event25:39 Dara Khosrowshahi Rides Unsupervised in Zagreb27:02 Where's Mobileye?30:05 Lyft Expands Brand to Europe 33:15 Who Jumps from Uber to Lyft First?36:49 When Does Uber Vertically Integrate Robotaxis?43:24 Zoox Perceived Intersection Problems45:18 Kodiak Announces IKEA as Unsupervised Over-the-Road Partner49:05 Foreign Autonomy Desk49:30 Next Week

The Road to Autonomy provides institutional intelligence for the Autonomy Economy, powered by ⁠AUTNMY AI⁠. We built the ⁠indices⁠, set the ⁠benchmarks⁠, and execute the ⁠fieldwork⁠ to put decision-ready physical AI intelligence directly into your workflows with OMEGA.

Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions.

The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries.

Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss their Texas Field Work where they rode in Cybercab, Waymo, Avride, May Mobility robotaxis, Kodiak and Aurora autonomous trucks, and inspected depots across Austin and Dallas.

Grayson’s verdict on Tesla’s Cybercab is simple. Once you go Cybercab, you don’t go back. In Austin, wait times averaged two to five minutes across dozens of rides, and from a software perspective Grayson found no material difference between Cybercab and the Model Y Robotaxi in terms of performance.

In Austin, Grayson counted roighly 200 to 300 vehicles at Avride’s upfitting facility, a presence he believes the market is overlooking, and views Hyundai as a quiet winner of the robotaxi buildout with the IONIQ 5 powering Waymo, Avride and Motional. The Zoox depot in Dallas was under construction with no visible charging infrastructure, and Grayson estimates it is 12 to 18 months from being operational.

Both Walt and Grayson rode in a Kodiak autonomous truck and Walt noted clear improvement ahead of Kodiak’s driver-out target on the Dallas to Houston lane by year-end. Additionally, Walt rode in an unsupervised Aurora autonomous truck at their Investor Day.

On the Foreign Autonomy Desk, Baidu is ramping supervised robotaxi testing in London with Lyft, Mercedes-Benz signed a licensing deal with Wayve, and Tensor Auto is preparing to deploy robotaxis with Volt Premium Taxi in Bulgaria.

Episode Chapters

0:00 Once You Go Cybercab, You Don't Go Back

03:56 Robotaxi in Dallas

09:01 Cybercab Wait Times, Pickups and Routing in Austin

12:10 Austin Robotaxi Depots

13:45 Avride's Austin Depot

16:02 Zoox's Dallas Depot

17:22 May Mobility in Arlington

20:17 Kodiak Targets Driver-Out on Dallas to Houston by Year-End

24:19 Avride in Dallas and the Uber Partner Math

26:46 Hyundai Is the Quiet Winner in Robotaxis

27:30 Walt Amends His View on Upfitting

30:57 Tesla's Vertical Integration and Supercharger Advantage

33:06 Aurora Investor Day and the 1,000 Truck Target

40:22 President Xi's Visit and a Wake-Up Call for Detroit

47:01 Foreign Autonomy Desk

49:33 Next Week

The Road to Autonomy provides institutional intelligence for the Autonomy Economy, powered by AUTNMY AI. We built the indices, set the benchmarks, and execute the fieldwork to put decision-ready physical AI intelligence directly into your workflows with OMEGA.

Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions.

The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries.

Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Waymo’s expansion to Tokyo and Singapore, NHTSA’s ongoing audit of Tesla’s Cybercab in Austin and Bolt’s plan to deploy up to 25,000 Lucid robotaxis in Europe.

Today, Tesla has roughly 40 Cybercabs operating in Austin, and Grayson believes Tesla is respectfully holding at its home market while NHTSA completes a fact-finding audit. If Tesla passes, it is free to deploy in any state that permits fully autonomous operations. Walt expects the process to wrap by year-end, and Grayson reads Administrator Morrison’s Pittsburgh speech on updating outdated federal motor vehicle safety standards (FMVSS) as a signal that a pathway is opening.

As Waymo continues their global expansion, Grayson predicts Singapore will be an IONIQ 5 market and Tokyo a Toyota market, with the vehicle constraint that has defined Waymo now dissipating, and he reads the Allianz partnership as the insurance piece falling into place for Waymo’s grand European expansion.

In Las Vegas, riders can now go anywhere in the ODD, and in Nashville, The Road to Autonomy Special Field correspondent David Moss got banned from the Lyft app playing autonomy roulette.

May Mobility announced a SPAC with $10 million of 2025 revenue and a $270,000 bill of materials, and Wayve hired Waymo’s former CFO, which Grayson views as a signal Wayve may be eyeing the public markets.

On the Foreign Autonomy Desk, Grayson and Walt analyzed Einride’s deployment in Germany, Pony AI, Uber and Verne’s driver-out launch in Zagreb on a 13.67-mile fixed loop. Spain issued its first SAE Level 4 permit to WeRide and Uber, with Grayson predicting a Waymo expansion to Madrid by Q2 of next year. In Singapore, Grab is expanding their WeRide fleet 5X to 50 robotaxis.

The Road to Autonomy is the leading applied intelligence platform covering the convergence of automation, autonomy, and the Autonomy Economy™ powered AUTNMY AI. Through our podcasts, newsletter, and proprietary applied intelligence, we set the narrative for institutional investors, industry executives, and policymakers navigating the convergence of automation, autonomy, and economic growth.

Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions.

The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries.

Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk are joined by special guest Jason Calacanis, one of the first investors in Uber, to debate his bull case on Uber, who wins the robotaxi endgame and whether local governments will cap the deployment of autonomous vehicles.

Jason earns the first clappy hat of the episode for saying what few in the market will, Tesla is obsessed with safety. The incidents Waymo has absorbed would be showstoppers under Tesla, and Tesla knows it. Jason, who drives FSD daily on Hardware 4, puts the system at 98 percent of the way to Level 4 and wants to buy a Cybercab fleet.

The robotaxi endgame, in Jason’s view, comes down to manufacturing. A shift from 2 percent of global miles on rideshare to 30 percent requires more than 100 million autonomous vehicles and a $5 trillion fleet build-out larger than the AI data center build-out.

Tesla wins the gold because it owns the factory. In Jason’s opinion Waymo will have to buy a car company, likely Rivian or Lucid, after it spins out of Google and IPOs. Uber owns the demand and will take the rest of the market with its 20 partners, several of which Jason predicts will pivot to building only robotaxis. His market share call is 40 percent Tesla, 35 percent Uber and 15 percent Waymo.

Walt pushes back on whether there is enough at the table for Uber’s twelfth partner and questions whether any of them are close to Tesla or Waymo today, with 300 Nuro powered Lucid Gravity vehicles by June being a win. Jason counters that Nuro and Avride will be driver-out within 24 months and that no one else can afford the $100 to $300 per customer required to build another Uber-scale network.

The sharpest debate of the episode is regulatory capture. Jason argues local governments will cap and license autonomous vehicles the way they did Airbnb, that drivers will be the first mass unemployment from AI and that Uber is right to negotiate a soft landing with unions.

Grayson argues federal preemption is coming and that caps will disappear when a national framework arrives. The two settle it with a steak dinner bet on whether local communities or the federal government win the fight in the United States.

Jason closes with his theory on Uber and his dream scenario of Travis Kalanick returning as CEO of Uber.

Episode Chapters

0:00 Jason Calacanis joins Autonomy Markets

02:19 Cybercab Fleets

04:04 Tesla's obsession with Safety

07:27 Everywhere-All-at-Once Fallacy

09:33 Uber Shutting Down ATG Was a Mistake

12:51 The Gap Between Engineers and the Market

16:37 Jason Calacanis on Why Waymo has to Buy a Car Company

18:15 Uber's Surge Pricing Strategy

19:16 Jason Calacanis' 40/35/15 Robotaxi Prediction

25:58 Are Any of Uber's Partners Technically Close to Tesla or Waymo?

30:23 Uber Eats is Half of Uber's business

32:18 100 Unsupervised Robotaxi Benchmark

33:37 Robotaxis in China

35:31 Regulatory Capture Debate begins

41:31 Steak Dinner Bet

49:02 Personally Owned Autonomous Vehicles Impact on Shared Rides

52:27 Waymo and Toyota moment to Watch in Q1 27

55:30 Puke in Uber, Get a Bonus

56:28 Travis Kalanick, CloudKitchens and Atoms

58:08 What Travis Kalanick Would do Differently

59:09 PIF, Lucid, Nuro and a Full-Stack Uber with-in 36 months

1:06:16 Atoms Robotaxi Depot Play

1:12:32 If and When Waymo Goes Public

1:17:36 Why Japan Needs Autonomy

1:20:46 The Next 12 Months

1:22:20 The Next Tesla Robotaxi format

1:27:42 Autonomous Regional Travel

1:29:47 Amazon, Google or Tesla should Buy Uber

1:31:39 Consolidation, First Dominos, Zipline, Wayve and Nuro

1:34:52 Framing the Bet

The Road to Autonomy is the leading applied intelligence platform covering the convergence of automation, autonomy, and the Autonomy Economy™ powered AUTNMY AI.

LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights,

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Tesla’s Cybercab commercial launch in Austin, Uber’s continued regulatory capture campaign and Waymo’s first ever debt raise.

Tesla officially opened Cybercab to the public in Austin on September 3rd, with paid rides across the full operational design domain (ODD) in a vehicle with no steering wheel and no pedals. Grayson and Walt call it a major milestone for the Autonomy Economy, despite a coordinated effort to make the launch look unimportant.

The bigger story surrounding the launch, in Grayson’s view, is Tesla’s new form inviting individuals and companies to purchase Cybercab fleets and build and own robotaxi infrastructure. Grayson sees this as a potential franchise model with Tesla’s ability to finance the fleet as a structural advantage.

The Financial Times is reporting on Uber’s continued regulatory capture strategy, requiring human drivers to handle the majority of rides as part of a hybrid network strategy. Grayson concludes Uber is under siege from autonomy and reaching for regulatory capture, while Walt notes it also kneecaps Uber’s own autonomy partners.

Waymo opened public rides in Denver, San Diego and Tampa, reaching 14 U.S. cities, and is in the final stage of raising roughly $3 billion in debt, its first borrowing.

Zoox earns its first clappy hat for curbside pickup and drop-off at Harry Reid International Airport and announced expanded testing to Houston and San Diego. Wayve and Uber launched supervised robotaxi service in London, with Wayve stating plainly that a safety driver is on board while Uber framed it as the first autonomous rides in the UK.

On the foreign autonomy desk, Applied Intuition partnered with Humain to build an autonomous freight corridor in Saudi Arabia, DiDi began fully driverless trials of its purpose-built R2 robotaxi with the UAE next, Waymo will deploy in Munich next year against Momenta and Uber, and WeRide’s robobus is operating in Singapore.

Episode Chapters

0:00 Tesla's Cybercab Launch in Austin

08:38 NHTSA's Probe into Tesla's Self-Certification

15:49 LiDAR Debate

21:42 Tesla's Fleet Ownership Model Questions

26:21 Tempering Expectations on Cybercab Rollout

27:54 Uber's Regulatory Capture Campaign

34:44 Waymo Expands to Denver, San Diego and Tampa

36:33 Waymo's $3 Billion Debt Raise

38:45 Robotaxi Depot Infrastructure

41:08 Zoox Launches Service at Harry Reid International Airport (LAS)

48:40 Wayve and Uber Launch Supervised Rides in London

52:32 Autonomous Trucking

55:22 Foreign Autonomy Desk

1:00:33 Next Week

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LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions.

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