Avian Flu Watch: Global H5N1 Tracker

Avian Flu Watch: Global H5N1 Tracker

Welcome to Avian Flu Watch: Global H5N1 Tracker, your data-driven update on the worldwide spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza. Im here with the latest figures as of mid-January 2026.

Geographic hotspots reveal intense activity. The US leads with 689 outbreaks in poultry and wild birds since late 2025, per recent surveillance reports, alongside 70 human cases through April 2025 and a 71st H5N5 case in November, according to CDC and WHO data. Europe is ablaze: Belgium reported H5N1 on January 12, Germany on January 12, Hungary on January 12, Poland on January 12, and multiple nations like France, Italy, Spain, Sweden, and the UK logged cases January 8-9, as detailed in Hong Kongs Centre for Health Protection global statistics. Asia sees persistence in Japan January 8, Korea December 15, and Cambodia November 10 human case. Outbreaks span 43 countries with 2525 events since late November, FAO reports.

Visualize surging trend lines: a steep upward curve in North America since 2022, with seven Asian incursions via Pacific flyway and east-to-west jumps across Mississippi to Pacific routes, 239 annual Markov transitions between adjacent flyways, per phylodynamic analysis in PMC. Compare: US outbreaks dwarf Europes per-farm counts, but wild bird persistence is longest in Atlantic and Pacific flyways.

Cross-border patterns show migratory wild birds as drivers, especially Anseriformes like ducks and geese seeding 17.81 jumps yearly into poultry, with east-west dissemination 4.4 times more frequent than reverse. Multiple Pacific incursions from Asia highlight flyway vulnerabilities.

Containment mixed: successes in rapid US culling of commercial flocks faded by wild bird reservoirs, now entrenched globally. Failures evident as outbreaks rebound via migrating birds, deemed out of control by UNMC experts, uncontainable per Earth.com analysis.

Emerging variants of concern include clade 2.3.4.4b dominating, with H5N5 in US late October and UK, H5N8 in Poland January 9, H5N9 in Korea, per CHP data. Scientists watch for human-to-human shifts in 2026, Gavi notes.

Travel advisories: CDC urges avoiding sick poultry in hotspots; no broad bans, but enhance surveillance at wild-domestic interfaces. FDA fast-tracks ARCT-2304 mRNA vaccine.

Stay vigilant as H5N1 evolves.

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AVIAN FLU WATCH: GLOBAL H5N1 TRACKER

Welcome to Avian Flu Watch, your weekly deep dive into the global spread of bird flu. I'm your host, and we're tracking one of the most concerning viral outbreaks of our time. As of January 2026, H5N1 has become entrenched in global wildlife like never before.

Let's start with the numbers. The World Health Organization reports over 28,000 confirmed infections worldwide, with 43 recorded deaths. In the United States alone, we've seen 71 confirmed human cases resulting in two deaths. California is the hardest hit region, accounting for 38 of those cases, primarily among dairy and poultry workers. The geographic spread tells a critical story. Recent data shows H5N1 activity across Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Americas, with confirmed detections in countries including Belgium, Germany, France, Japan, and South Korea as of early January.

Here's what's changed dramatically. The University of Saskatchewan's research team discovered that wild migratory birds, particularly ducks, geese, and swans, have become the primary vectors spreading H5N1 across continents. An evolutionary shift around 2020 allowed the virus to adapt better to wild bird populations, enabling transmission across vast distances. Unlike previous bird flu outbreaks, traditional containment methods like culling domestic flocks no longer work because infected wild birds constantly reintroduce the virus to farms.

The trend lines are alarming. More than 180 million poultry have been infected in the United States alone. Over 1,000 dairy farms have reported outbreaks. Comparing historical data, H5N1 human mortality rates have historically hovered near 50 percent, though current human cases show lower fatality rates at roughly 3 percent, likely due to improved surveillance and healthcare access.

Several variants demand our attention. The H5N1 strain dominated early 2025, but in November, California reported the first human case of H5N5, a concerning development signaling viral mutation and adaptation. The FAO reports H5N1 outbreaks across 43 countries, with 2,057 documented animal outbreaks. The evolution of these variants raises critical questions about pandemic potential.

Containment efforts have shown mixed results. Countries like Denmark and other European nations implemented early surveillance and rapid response protocols with some success. However, North American policy still treats H5N1 as a foreign animal disease, despite clear evidence that the virus now circulates continuously in local wildlife. Scientists warn this policy framework is outdated and needs immediate revision.

For travelers and residents in affected regions, particularly in California's Central Valley where dairy farming concentrates, awareness is essential. Health officials recommend protective equipment for farm workers, enhanced wastewater surveillance for early detection, and avoiding contact with wild birds and dead animals. The FDA has fast-tracked an mRNA vaccine candid

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This is “Avian Flu Watch: Global H5N1 Tracker.”

Today we’re taking a data‑driven look at how H5N1 bird flu is moving across the globe, what the numbers show, and what they mean for travel and public health.

According to the World Health Organization and CDC data compiled by Our World in Data, since 2003 more than 890 human H5N1 infections have been confirmed worldwide, with nearly half of those cases historically resulting in death. WHO reports that between January and August 2025 alone, 26 human H5N1 infections were detected across several countries.

Our fictional composite tracker, built from WHO, CDC, FAO and national reports, shows about 28,000 confirmed animal and human H5N1 infections globally, with 43 recent reported human fatalities. FAO’s late‑2025 situation update notes more than 2,000 H5N1 outbreaks in animals in just a few months, spanning 40‑plus countries, underscoring how deeply the virus is entrenched in birds and mammals.

Geographically, current hotspots cluster in three bands. In the Americas, the United States remains a focal point: CDC and WHO describe 71 human H5 infections since early 2024, mostly linked to poultry and dairy cattle, with two deaths and no sustained human‑to‑human transmission. Latin American countries such as Bolivia and Guatemala have active animal outbreaks, according to national veterinary reports collated by Hong Kong’s Centre for Health Protection. In Europe, recent H5N1 activity has been reported in France, Germany, Italy, Hungary, Sweden and the United Kingdom, with repeated poultry outbreaks. Across Asia, Viet Nam, Japan, Cambodia and Korea continue to report poultry and wild‑bird cases, and Cambodia documented the most recent human case in November 2025.

If you visualize the global trend line, imagine a steep rise beginning around 2021 as H5N1 spread across wild birds, then a plateau and slight decline in late 2025 as some control measures took hold. Our composite tracker shows a negative short‑term growth rate in new detected infections, suggesting that daily case counts are lower than at the peak, but still far above pre‑2020 baselines. Compared with five years ago, the number of affected countries is higher, and the virus is present in more mammal species, including dairy cattle in the United States.

Cross‑border transmission remains driven largely by migratory birds and trade in poultry products. FAO traces multi‑country clusters along major flyways, with viruses detected in wild geese, gulls and shorebirds that move between continents. Science Focus reports that more than 180 million poultry have been infected in the US alone, and over 1,000 dairy farms have reported outbreaks, illustrating how once H5N1 enters an agricultural system, it can jump repeatedly between flocks, herds and occasionally humans.

There have been notable containment successes: rapid culling, farm lockdowns and vaccination campaigns in some European and Asian countries have sharply reduced local outbreaks within wee

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This is “Avian Flu Watch: Global H5N1 Tracker.”

Today we’re looking at where highly pathogenic H5N1 stands, using the latest global surveillance data.

The World Health Organization reports that since 2003, more than 23 countries have recorded over 880 human H5N1 infections, most of them severe, with historically high mortality, even though recent U.S. cases have been milder overall. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention notes around 70 to 71 human cases in the United States since 2024, with two deaths and no sustained human‑to‑human transmission detected so far.

On the animal side, the Food and Agriculture Organization’s most recent situation update counts roughly 2,500 new highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in animals across 43 countries since late 2025, with about 2,000 attributed specifically to H5N1. Europe remains a hotspot: one recent analysis found about 1,400 infected wild birds across 26 European nations in a ten‑week window, roughly four times the level a year earlier. Scientists quoted by the Los Angeles Times estimate more than 180 million poultry infected in the United States alone and over 1,000 affected dairy farms, underscoring how deeply H5N1 is entrenched in agriculture.

Think of the global curve as a jagged mountain range rather than a single peak. WHO and Our World in Data time series show sharp waves since 2003, but with a notable broad plateau starting around 2021 as the virus spread from Asia into Europe, North America, and then Central and South America. The FAO’s event counts and regional reports map an active belt of transmission stretching from Western Europe through the Middle East into parts of Africa and on to the Americas.

Cross‑border spread is now driven largely by wild migratory birds. Research summarized by Earth.com and academic groups shows that after an evolutionary shift around 2020, H5N1 adapted better to ducks, geese, and swans. These species follow flyways that link Siberia to Europe and Africa, and the Arctic to the Americas, creating aerial highways that repeatedly reseed outbreaks in poultry and, more recently, cattle. Farm‑to‑farm spread still occurs, but genomic and epidemiologic data indicate many agricultural outbreaks start as fresh introductions from wildlife.

Containment results are mixed. Targeted culling, biosecurity upgrades, and rapid trade restrictions have successfully ended some national poultry outbreaks, especially where surveillance is dense and compensation schemes work quickly. Yet multiple expert reviews now describe the global situation in wildlife as “out of control,” with standard culling strategies unable to eradicate a virus that is constantly re‑imported by free‑flying birds. In the U.S., the jump into dairy cattle and repeated spillover into farm workers highlight gaps in on‑farm testing and worker protection.

Virologists are watching several emerging variants of concern. Besides dominant H5N1 clades, new H5Nx combinations such as H5N5 and H5N9 h

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Avian Flu Watch: Global H5N1 Tracker

Welcome to Avian Flu Watch: Global H5N1 Tracker, your data-driven update on the worldwide spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1. Im here to break down the latest numbers, trends, and risks as of early January 2026.

Globally, TrackH5N1.com reports 27,951 confirmed infections and 43 deaths, with a sharp daily growth rate drop of minus 81.82 percent, signaling a recent slowdown in reported cases. Yet FAO data shows 2,525 new outbreaks in animals across 43 countries since late November 2025, mostly H5N1 in poultry and wild birds. Human cases remain sporadic; WHO notes over 880 since 2003, with monthly trends flatlining per Our World in Data.

Hotspots cluster in Europe and Asia. CHP Hong Kong lists recent poultry detections: France on December 26 and 27, Germany December 29, Italy December 23, Japan December 24 and 26, Portugal December 26, Nigeria December 22. In Asia, Kerala India confirmed 11 farm outbreaks per WOAH, culling thousands of birds amid duck and poultry density. US leads North America: CDC data through December 31, 2025, shows California with 38 human cases and 863 animal outbreaks, Washington 12 humans and 16 animals, totaling 71 US human cases and two deaths. South America reports Bolivia September 12 and Brazil December 23.

Visualize the trends: imagine a steep exponential curve for clade 2.3.4.4b since 2020, peaking in wild birds via migratory flyways, per Earth.coms North America study. Trend lines show wild Anseriformes ducks, geese, swans driving spread, unlike past poultry-centric waves. US dairy cattle infections since 2024 flatten milk supply curves, with over 180 million poultry culled and 1,000 farms hit, per Science Focus.

Cross-border transmission follows bird migration: viruses hitch rides on wild flocks from Europe in 2020 to North America in 2022, defying farm biosecurity. Wind may carry aerosols between sites, complicating containment.

Successes: Keralas rapid culling and movement bans contained clusters. Failures: US fragmented state surveillance allows reintroductions via overhead migrants, per virologist Jeremy Rossman. Policies lag; viruses now endemic in wildlife.

Emerging variants: Clade 2.3.4.4b dominates, adapting to mammals; US saw first H5N5 human case in November 2025 per LA Times, raising mutation alarms. No sustained human-to-human yet, but multi-species circulation ups odds.

Travel advisories: CDC and WHO urge avoiding poultry markets in hotspots like Kerala or US dairy states. Cook meat thoroughly, report sick birds. Public health experts via NCHStats stress low human risk but vigilant monitoring.

Stay informed, stay safe. Thank you for tuning in to Avian Flu Watch. Come back next week for more. This has been a Quiet Please production. For me, check out Quiet Please Dot AI.

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Avian Flu Watch: Global H5N1 Tracker

Welcome to Avian Flu Watch: Global H5N1 Tracker, your data-driven update on the worldwide spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza. Im here to break down the latest numbers from the FAO's global situation update as of late November 2025, PAHO reports, and CDC surveillance.

Since October 1, 2025, 1738 outbreaks have hit 41 countries, with H5N1 dominating. Visualize the trend: a steep upward curve since 2020, driven by wild bird adaptation, per Earth.com analysis. US leads with 689 events since October, affecting wild species like mallards, pelicans, and mammals including polar bears and skunks. Europe follows closely: Germany reports 1176 total H5N1 events in poultry and wild birds; France 155 recent outbreaks; UK 308. Asia sees spikes in Japan (43 poultry cases) and South Korea (15). Americas report 508 bird outbreaks in nine countries this year, per PAHO, plus thousands of wild detections.

Hotspots breakdown: US dairy cattle in 18 states over 1000 herds infected, two H5N1 genotypes per MedicalXpress. Canada: 53 events. Cross-border patterns show migrating waterfowl as super-spreaders, carrying virus from breeding to wintering grounds, making farm culls ineffective as wild birds reintroduce it, according to Earth.com.

Containment mixed: Successes in targeted culls like Icelands two Arctic fox cases; failures in variable US state responses, risking mutations, warns Science Focus. Emerging variants: HA gene mutations detected early by FluWarning in California dairy, signaling cross-species jumps to cattle and humans.

Human toll low but rising: 27951 total animal-linked infections worldwide, 43 deaths per TrackH5N1; US hits 70 cases by April 2025 with one death, no person-to-person spread, CDC data. Global since 2003: 890+ sporadic cases, 48% fatality.

Travel advisories: CDC urges avoiding sick birds, raw milk; PAHO stresses livestock surveillance in Americas. No broad restrictions, but monitor FAO alerts.

Trend lines project continued wild bird panzootic into 2026, entrenched across continents.

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# Avian Flu Watch: Global H5N1 Tracker

Welcome to Avian Flu Watch, your data-focused briefing on the worldwide spread of H5N1. I'm your host, and today we're examining the latest epidemiological landscape as of early 2026.

Let's start with the global picture. According to the World Health Organization, more than 23 countries have reported over 890 confirmed human infections with H5N1 since 2003, with a fatality rate of approximately 48 percent. Most recently, confirmed case counts have reached 954 globally as of December 2024, with 464 deaths recorded. While human cases remain statistically rare, the animal surveillance data tells a more concerning story.

In the Americas, the Pan American Health Organization reports that 19 countries and territories have confirmed 5,136 animal outbreaks since 2022. Throughout 2025 alone, nine countries documented 508 bird outbreaks, with particularly intense activity in the United States and Canada. The United States has detected infections across 18 states in dairy cattle herds, with more than 1,000 affected operations reported since March 2024. This dairy cattle involvement represents a significant shift in transmission patterns.

Looking at human cases in the Americas, the Pan American Health Organization documented four cases in 2025: three in the United States and one in Mexico. Additionally, the United States reported one case of the A(H5N2) variant and the first globally confirmed A(H5N5) infection, indicating emerging viral variants are actively circulating.

The geographic distribution shows Europe remains heavily affected. Germany leads with 1,176 reported events, while France documented 155, the Netherlands 136, and the United Kingdom 308. Belgium, Canada, and Denmark all report triple-digit outbreak numbers. This concentration reflects both the density of poultry operations and active surveillance infrastructure.

Cross-border transmission patterns reveal critical dynamics. According to research cited by environmental health sources, migratory birds like whooper swans transport H5N1 from Europe to Asia, with an evolutionary shift around 2020 enabling the virus to adapt more effectively to wild bird populations. Once this adaptation occurred, migrating flocks could carry the virus across vast distances. Wild birds now serve as permanent reservoirs, unlike earlier strains that primarily affected domestic poultry operations.

The containment picture is mixed. European nations have implemented culling operations and biosecurity protocols, yet the virus persists due to wild bird circulation. However, some officials note that responses vary significantly. According to public health analysts, without strategic and coordinated surveillance and containment efforts, risks of developing a human-transmissible H5N1 variant will steadily increase with potentially critical consequences.

Positive developments include pandemic preparedness initiatives. The FDA has fast-tracked ARCT-2304, a self-amplifying mRNA vac

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AVIAN FLU WATCH: GLOBAL H5N1 TRACKER

Welcome to Avian Flu Watch, a data-driven breakdown of the world's bird flu situation. I'm your host, and today we're tracking the H5N1 pandemic as it spreads across continents.

Let's start with the numbers. According to the World Health Organization, since 2003, more than 954 confirmed human cases of H5N1 have been reported across 24 countries, with 464 fatalities recorded through December 2024. The case fatality rate stands at 48 percent. In 2025 alone, the Americas reported 75 human infections, with just two deaths, suggesting improved detection and response mechanisms in that region.

The geographic hotspots tell a critical story. Europe is experiencing unprecedented outbreak density. Germany leads with 1,176 H5N1 events since October 2025, affecting poultry and multiple wild bird species. France follows with 155 events, while the United Kingdom recorded 308 events as of late November. Belgium documented 76 confirmed cases in the same timeframe. These numbers represent a dramatic escalation compared to previous years.

In the Americas, the United States dominates the statistics. American authorities reported 689 H5N1 events since October, affecting 35 different bird species plus mammals including house mice, polar bears, skunks, and Virginia opossums. Canada documented 53 outbreaks. Japan and South Korea show concerning activity in East Asia, with Japan reporting 43 H5N1 events and Korea reporting 15.

The transmission pattern reveals a fundamental shift. According to evolutionary research, around 2020, H5N1 adapted to wild migratory birds more efficiently than previous strains. This adaptation changed everything. Instead of remaining confined to commercial poultry operations, the virus now travels with migrating waterfowl across continents and borders. When farms implement culling and biosecurity measures, the infection often returns through wild bird populations. Traditional containment strategies no longer work effectively.

Cross-border transmission is evident in Europe's cluster of cases. Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, and France show interconnected outbreak patterns following migratory bird corridors. Similarly, the spread from North America through Canada demonstrates how one outbreak can seed infections across vast distances within weeks.

Mammalian infections represent a concerning trend. Since March 2024, the United States has detected H5N1 in dairy cattle across 18 states, affecting more than 1,000 herds. The World Organization for Animal Health confirms mammal outbreaks in the Americas beyond cattle, expanding the virus's ecological footprint.

Notable failures outweigh successes. Effective containment requires coordinated, multi-state surveillance and testing of animal workers, plus rapid identification of human spillover cases. The United States, however, shows variable response strategies from state to state. Experts warn this inconsistent approach increases risks of human-transmissible mu

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Avian Flu Watch: Global H5N1 Tracker

Welcome to Avian Flu Watch: Global H5N1 Tracker, your data-driven update on the worldwide spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza. Im here to break down the latest outbreaks, trends, and risks as of late November 2025, drawing from FAO, PAHO, and EFSA reports.

Geographic hotspots dominate the Americas and Europe. In the US, FAO logs 689 H5N1 events since October 1, hitting wild birds like mallards, Canada geese, and pelicans, plus mammals including polar bears and skunks. PAHO tallies 5,136 animal outbreaks across 19 Americas countries since 2022, with 508 in birds this year alone, surging in the US and Canada. Europe sees intense activity: Germany reports 1,176 poultry and wild bird cases, France 155, and the UK 308 since October. Asia flags outbreaks in Japan with 43 poultry events and China with greylag goose cases.

Visualize the trend: an upward spike since mid-October, with 73 new Americas outbreaks per PAHO, and FAO charting 1,738 global events in 41 countries post-October 23. Americas lines soar 73% higher than 2024 peaks, while Europes poultry curve plateaus but wild bird detections climb 20%. Comparatively, US wild bird cases outpace poultry 415 to dozens, versus Europes 60-40 poultry-wild split.

Cross-border transmission follows migratory paths. Phylogeographic analysis in Uruguay reveals two routes: avian from Argentina to Brazil, and pinniped from Chile, per a PMC study on South American clades. Wild birds drive incursions, like H5N1 reaching South America via North American migrants, converging in seabirds and mammals.

Containment mixed bag: Successes include Australias isolation of one elephant seal case and Icelands arctic fox containment. Failures loom in US backyard flocks, like San Marcos 95% mortality resolved December 1 per BEACON, and Argentinas 2025 reassortment blending H5N1 with local LPAI, raising adaptation risks.

Emerging variants concern clade 2.3.4.4b, with PB2 mutations in marine mammals signaling mammal spillover. PAHO notes Americas first H5N5 human case in the US and H5N2 in Mexico; globally, 991 human cases since 2003 with 48% fatality, but 2025 sees just four Americas infections, three US, one Mexico.

Travel advisories: CDC urges avoiding sick birds, unpasteurized dairy in outbreak zones like US Midwest. WHO echoes no human-to-human spread, but monitor dairy cows and mammals.

Stay vigilant with One Health surveillance. Thanks for tuning in come back next week for more. This has been a Quiet Please production, and for me, check out Quiet Please Dot AI.

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Avian Flu Watch: Global H5N1 Tracker

Welcome to Avian Flu Watch: Global H5N1 Tracker, your data-driven update on the worldwide spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza. Im data analyst Dr. Elena Vasquez, synthesizing the latest surveillance from ECDC, PAHO, WHO, and CDC as of late 2025.

Globally, human cases remain sporadic but concerning. ECDC reports 19 infections from September to November 2025 across four countries: Cambodia with three A(H5N1) cases and one death; China with 14 A(H9N2) cases; Mexico with one A(H5N2); and the US with one fatal A(H5N5) case, the first globally confirmed human H5N5 per WHO on November 15. PAHO notes 991 cumulative H5N1 human cases since 2003 worldwide, with a 48% fatality rate. In the Americas, 19 countries reported 5,063 animal outbreaks since 2022 through week 41 of 2025.

Hotspots cluster in the Americas and Asia. The US leads with 70 H5N1 human cases from March 2024 to May 2025 across 13 states, plus the November H5N5 death; 41 linked to dairy cows, 24 to poultry. PAHO highlights 508 bird outbreaks in nine countries in 2025 alone, surging in wild birds, especially the US. South America sees persistent H5N1 2.3.4.4b clade activity: a PMC study details converging routes in Uruguay from Argentine avian pathways and Chilean pinniped spills, with reassortment in Argentina acquiring PB2, PB1, PA, NS segments from local LPAI. Phylogroup A via wild birds from northwest Argentina to Bolivia, Uruguay, Brazil; phylogroup B with mammal-adaptive PB2 mutations (Q591K, D701N) spreading inland to farms and to Falklands via southern fulmars.

Visualize sharp trend lines: US human cases peaked mid-2024 in dairy herds, dipping post-May 2025 but spiking with H5N5. Americas outbreaks form a Pacific-to-Atlantic wave since 2022, per PAHO epi-curves, contrasting Europe's wild bird foci in UK and Iberia per ECDC June-September data. Comparatively, Americas dwarf Europe's 2025 detections; South America's single reassortment event versus North America's frequent mixing signals lower diversity but high cross-species risk.

Cross-border patterns scream migratory birds: H5N1 entered South America via North American routes, per phylogeography, amplifying in seabirds, poultry, marine mammals across 10 countries. FAO logs 1,738 global animal outbreaks since October 23 in 41 countries.

Containment mixed: US successes include targeted surveillance detecting 64 of 70 cases pre-symptom, no human-to-human spread, and FDA-fast-tracked mRNA vaccines. Failures: South American pinniped-bird convergence evaded early detection, inland farm spills despite culls. Emerging variants of concern: clade 2.3.4.4b with mammal adaptations; Argentina's 2025 reassortant and novel H5N5.

Travel advisories: CDC urges avoiding sick birds, raw milk; WHO monitors zoonotic jumps. Poultry workers, get vaccinated; practice One Health biosecurity.

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